/ avalanche prediction pape

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duncan b - on 04 Oct 2012
Davy Virdee - on 04 Oct 2012
In reply to duncan b:


From what I read, the *model* predicts on higher slopes snow accumulation is the overriding factor in avalance probability; on lower slopes metamorphism has the biggest effect; and on intermediate slopes multiple events which result in "compaction metamorphism" have the largest effects.

How does/should this effect the average mountaineer heading into the hills? It doesn't add anything massively new, in my opinion,
as (un)interestingly, the conclusions they come to are what we can draw from empirical evidence and experience anyway: Snow pack, weather, terrain and loading all effect avalanche occurrence - and depending on the part of the mountain you are on and what day etc, some of these have more on an effects than others.

It is quite nice that the maths ties in with the real world, though.

Milesy - on 04 Oct 2012
Definately more of interest to those in the greater ranges where snow profile can remain relatively unchanged for much longer periods of time. We have a slight luxury at least of changing weather systems.
duncan b - on 04 Oct 2012
In reply to Davy Virdee:
> (In reply to duncan b)
>
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> How does/should this effect the average mountaineer heading into the hills?

I would have thought the model could be used to augment avalanche forecasts.

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Davy Virdee - on 05 Oct 2012
In reply to duncan b:

It would need far more varibles to be considered a good predition model in my opnion.

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