/ avalanche prediction pape
From what I read, the *model* predicts on higher slopes snow accumulation is the overriding factor in avalance probability; on lower slopes metamorphism has the biggest effect; and on intermediate slopes multiple events which result in "compaction metamorphism" have the largest effects.
How does/should this effect the average mountaineer heading into the hills? It doesn't add anything massively new, in my opinion,
as (un)interestingly, the conclusions they come to are what we can draw from empirical evidence and experience anyway: Snow pack, weather, terrain and loading all effect avalanche occurrence - and depending on the part of the mountain you are on and what day etc, some of these have more on an effects than others.
It is quite nice that the maths ties in with the real world, though.
I would have thought the model could be used to augment avalanche forecasts.
It would need far more varibles to be considered a good predition model in my opnion.
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