/ Winter on its way!

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CurlyStevo - on 21 Nov 2012
http://weather.unisys.com/gfsx/gfsx.php?inv=0&plot=850&region=eu&t=9p

ok well maybe. But current forecast looking good from next Monday or Tuesday....
baileyswalk - on 21 Nov 2012
In reply to CurlyStevo:

That looks no bad, http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=nwdc;sess=

Shows pretty much the same thing.

Some reports have it coming in over the weekend tho. Shuold I work this wkend and wait for the weather or go climbing and risk a slush scrape :S
CurlyStevo - on 21 Nov 2012
In reply to baileyswalk:
yeah ecmwf have also converged on a similar forecast which is quite unusual as it uses a different and often quite divergent model. It may well be the less mild spell will end by/during the weekend, but the current forecast has very very cold air moving in towards the end of next week.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Wind%20850%20an...
In reply to CurlyStevo: Interesting - looks like we're gonna get that Siberian air first! The long range forecast from YR.no for where I live is suggesting lows of -16 at the end of next week. Brrrrr.
TimTim on 21 Nov 2012 - host217-42-93-44.range217-42.btcentralplus.com
In reply to TobyA: Finhgers crossed...toes crossed....
Jamie B - on 21 Nov 2012
In reply to CurlyStevo:

Fingers crossed - cold before snow would be the dream ticket.
CurlyStevo - on 21 Nov 2012
In reply to Jamie Bankhead:
for mixed routes?

Personally if we do get a cold patch I'm looking forward to climbing some ice. With the last 6 months being very wet there should be lots of seepage around!
In reply to CurlyStevo:
Scrambled up Dow Crag last sat and it was soggy and the ground below the tops was oozing and it's been chucking it down since then! Oh yeah!
AlH - on 21 Nov 2012
In reply to CurlyStevo:
> (In reply to Jamie Bankhead)
> for mixed routes?
>
> Personally if we do get a cold patch I'm looking forward to climbing some ice. With the last 6 months being very wet there should be lots of seepage around!

Remember the West and NW of Scotland have had one of the driest summers in many, many years. However the last 2 weeks have been trying hard to make up for that!
John Stainforth - on 21 Nov 2012
In reply to CurlyStevo:

Time to put on winter tyres!
Timmd on 21 Nov 2012
In reply to John Stainforth:Ditto for my MTB, hope the cold and snow gets as far south as Sheffield.
Mike Lates - on 21 Nov 2012
In reply to John Stainforth: Are you still in Canada John? Haven't you had them on for weeks now?
JCurrie - on 21 Nov 2012
In reply to CurlyStevo:
No fancy weather forecast required.
My eldest's birthday party is weekend after this one, so I can confidently predict perfect conditions all over the country.
Jase
jonnie3430 - on 21 Nov 2012
In reply to JCurrie:

Are you sure? I'm working this weekend, but have next off, so I would have assumed that this weekend will be best condition wise, with some good, healthy, nourishing wind and rain on lower areas (where I will be.)
Nigel Thomson - on 21 Nov 2012
In reply to baileyswalk:
> (In reply to CurlyStevo)
>
>
.
>
>
Should I work this wkend and wait for the weather or go climbing and risk a slush scrape :S

Work the weekend, then give me a bell Sunday night and we can GTF up north Monday while everyone else is at work.
CurlyStevo - on 21 Nov 2012
In reply to AlH:
"Remember the West and NW of Scotland have had one of the driest summers in many, many years."

Given the last set of Scottish summers that shouldn't be too hard, although according to MET June and October were drier than average in Fort William area, however July, August and September were average for the area and time of year.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/anomacts/

In any case now I live down south again with a proper cold spell I'm more interested in Snowdonia / Lakes (as I can drive there in less than one whole day!) which have seen a decent amount of rain, like you say the last few weeks will have added to it throughout Britian.
AlH - on 21 Nov 2012
In reply to CurlyStevo: The further north and west you go the better it was. Fort William did well (noticeably less midges with all that sunshine) but I think Skye and beyond fared even better.
Mike Lates - on 21 Nov 2012
In reply to AlH: I can see the ice curtain stretching almost unbroken across Coire Dubh Mor if I dream enough. With cold like that forecast I may get the photo album from '99 out, again.......
AlH - on 21 Nov 2012
In reply to Mike Lates: I'm taking bookings tactically this year... to try to give myself more days off in the main winter period to climb for myself... Skye beckons...
CurlyStevo - on 21 Nov 2012
In reply to AlH:
Yeah I was in the NW highlands for a week in June, cold but sunny and dry nearly the whole week, it was torrential down here so I was told.
ads.ukclimbing.com
Mike Lates - on 22 Nov 2012
In reply to AlH: See you soon, keep in touch, mike
jonnie3430 - on 22 Nov 2012
In reply to the weegy:
> (In reply to baileyswalk)
> [...]
> Work the weekend, then give me a bell Sunday night and we can GTF up north Monday while everyone else is at work.

Space for one more?
Nigel Thomson - on 22 Nov 2012
In reply to jonnie3430: Always space for one more. Email me if the weather starts to look good and vice versa.
Orgsm on 22 Nov 2012
In reply to CurlyStevo:

Don't know about that but gale force winds are here right now!
Snoweider - on 22 Nov 2012
In reply to CurlyStevo:

Soooo excited. Happiness is a freelancer with no work and a hard winter. :-D
Aly - on 23 Nov 2012
In reply to CurlyStevo: It's looking optimistic for the next week or so at least according to MWIS:

"Planning Outlook for all mountain areas from Saturday, 24th November, 2012:

There is now very high confidence for constantly low freezing level (800 to 1000m) next week. Snow showers will affect many northern and eastern mountains. There is now significant evidence of early December being very cold: most mountain terrain becoming frozen and snowfall on at least northern and eastern mountains."
CurlyStevo - on 23 Nov 2012
In reply to Aly:
If this forecast is right (which lets face it - it may not be) the weekend after this is going to be BALTIC

http://www.weather.unisys.com/gfsx/gfsx.php?inv=0&plot=850&region=eu&t=9p
Cuthbert on 23 Nov 2012
In reply to CurlyStevo:

2C in Inverness this morning. Although it was 8C when I drove back from Fort William last night and wet.
AlH - on 23 Nov 2012
In reply to Saor Alba: The snow line on Ben Nevis came down quite a bit last night and its a balmy -1 on top of Aonach Mor at present. Bring on the cold.... please....
http://alanhalewood.blogspot.co.uk/2012/11/this-mornings-snowline.html
Mr Fuller on 23 Nov 2012
In reply to CurlyStevo: I really hope that forecast is right... I've a trip up north planned for first weekend of December and it looks like some icy stuff might just be in.
CurlyStevo - on 23 Nov 2012
In reply to Mr Fuller:
I don't think it will be enough time to bring in the low level ice routes, perhaps something relient on water ice rather than snow melt higher up though? TBH your more likely to get some mixed done IMO.
Mr Fuller on 23 Nov 2012
In reply to CurlyStevo: Yeah, 'tis the season for mixed. I've a wishlist as long as my arm so something will definitely go! As long as some of the classic ridges on the Ben are 'in', or something like maybe Good Friday Climb, then I'll be happy!
Jamie B - on 23 Nov 2012
In reply to Mr Fuller:

GFC unlikely to be consolidated early December, but you never know...
Boulderdash86 on 23 Nov 2012
In reply to CurlyStevo: This looks like New Years Day and the following few week's will be excellant....looking forward to some climbing and my Winter ML training - snowholing should be good. Wonder how BRecon will be next weekend though???
Andy Mountains - on 23 Nov 2012
In reply to CurlyStevo:

MWIS:

'There is now very high confidence for constantly low freezing level (800 to 1000m) next week. Snow showers will affect many northern and eastern mountains. There is now significant evidence of early December being very cold: most mountain terrain becoming frozen and snowfall on at least northern and eastern mountains.'
CurlyStevo - on 23 Nov 2012
In reply to Andy Mountains:
Nice - fingers crossed hey :)
CurlyStevo - on 23 Nov 2012
In reply to Boulderdash86:
"This looks like New Years Day and the following few week's will be excellant...."

Thats way too far ahead to say that. Could be a mega thaw mid december.
John Stainforth - on 24 Nov 2012
In reply to Mike Lates:

No, I was only in Canada for the Banff mountain festival, and my rental car indeed had winter tires.

I am back in UK for a little while, and just changed my summer tires to winter ones with the rumours of winter just round the corner.
Jim C - on 24 Nov 2012
In reply to John Stainforth:
Tyres
John Stainforth - on 03 Dec 2012
In reply to Jim C:

I'm sorry you found my spelling tiresome! I had my North American hat on.
ads.ukclimbing.com
Orgsm on 03 Dec 2012
In reply to CurlyStevo:

It's snowing again :-)
James Edwards - on 03 Dec 2012
In reply to A Game of Chance:
3 inches of snow fell last night just above sea level north of Dingwall. Much more inland in the straths.
Reports of nearly a foot at the sides of the A9 going south towards the cairngorms.
Cold all week too with more snow due.
Anything on SAIS yet?
James e
gavmac - on 03 Dec 2012
In reply to James Edwards:
SAIS weekend reports start this weekend coming for Cairngorms and Lochaber and then daily from the 15th. Certainly wintery in the Highlands today, made work difficult!
CurlyStevo - on 06 Dec 2012
In reply to gavmac:
It's really looking to be shaping up this winter! There must be some good quantities of snow down in the lakes and scotland now! We are then due a short thaw with some rain and a refreeze. Then very cold weather and drier west and south too with more powder for snow sports in the northern corries!

MET long range
"UK Outlook for Tuesday 11 Dec 2012 to Thursday 20 Dec 2012:

Cold weather is likely to continue during the middle of December, with temperatures generally significantly colder than normal for the time of year. Most areas should see plenty of fine, dry and sunny weather, although there is a risk of wintry showers. These are most likely to affect eastern areas at first, but they could become more widespread later in the forecast period, potentially reaching all parts of the UK. There will be widespread overnight frosts, and with these there is a risk of ice forming, especially around showers. There is also a risk of freezing fog forming in some places. Although the UK outlook is for generally cold conditions to dominate, there are some indications of milder, wetter weather affecting some western and southwestern areas at times."

MWIS
"A brief milder period as rain extends southeast on Saturday and a thaw extends to higher summits in Scotland for up to
12 hours. Widespread severe northerly gales on Sunday.
Very cold next week or perhaps longer. Terrain almost all persistently frozen to valley level from Monday onwards.
There will be significant snowfall on mainly eastern mountains, and also northern mountains in Scotland, but for many
areas, substantially dry."
JamesRoddie - on 06 Dec 2012
In reply to CurlyStevo:

There's certainly a good amount of snow up high in Glencoe and Lochaber by now and for many of us who live here at least it's been a good start to the season. Here's hoping the forecast isn't wrong!
CurlyStevo - on 06 Dec 2012
In reply to JamesRoddie:
I'm looking forward to getting away, but this weekend isn't looking worth the drive just yet. Hoping to get away in the next week though!

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