/ Big Thaw!

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CurlyStevo - on 13 Dec 2012
Looking long range on the jetstream forecast it's not looking good!

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream;sess=
Simon Caldwell - on 13 Dec 2012
In reply to CurlyStevo:

LA LA LA I can't hear you
goose299 - on 13 Dec 2012
In reply to CurlyStevo:
yeh, not good news.
cancelled a trip to scotland this weekend to avoid driving up there for nowt!
JohnnyW - on 13 Dec 2012
In reply to CurlyStevo:

Boo, just for when I get some time off! }(
In reply to CurlyStevo:
Well I can't complain so far having had 10 good hill-days in the past 17 days in Scotland. Certainly looking less settled up to Christmas, but that tends to be the norm in most years. Don't worry - it'll get better in January again. I predict the second half of the month will be particularly cold.
PS - I'm always right!
CurlyStevo - on 13 Dec 2012
In reply to goose299:
Looks OK this weekend in scotland no? Maybe a bit breezy.
jhw - on 13 Dec 2012
Damn!
ebdon - on 13 Dec 2012
In reply to CurlyStevo: I'm very confused about the extent of the thaw in scotland this weekend - MWIS says DOOM! and met office seems to suggest it will be a pretty typical weekend with freezing levels around 800m??
Pay Attention - on 13 Dec 2012
In reply to CurlyStevo:

That is interesting! On the jetstream weblink you posted there is a section called Temperature Watch. There is a chart within that that predicts average temperature for the next 16 days. 10 degrees on the 24th - it's going to be a green christmas.

I will be watching this to see how reliable it turns out. Hopefully, it's dead wrong!!
jhw - on 13 Dec 2012
Do we think this will be sufficient to kill all the climbing that has formed by weekend after this?
Webster - on 13 Dec 2012
In reply to CurlyStevo: It seems to me from watching a few forecasts including the BBC that its not going to get mild in scotland (at least in the east), only back to normal, which hardly spells DOOM for winter climbing in the norries, if anything it will improve the snow conditions with a few freeze/thaw cycles and further snowfall...heres to hoping as im off to scotland tomorow for the next 10 days...
Jamie B - on 13 Dec 2012
In reply to jhw:

> Do we think this will be sufficient to kill all the climbing that has formed by weekend after this?

No idea. Nobody has any idea whatsoever, whatever "forecasts" they try to cite. Keep your axes sharp, your car fuelled-up, maintain your psyche and keep all other arrangements flexible. When it's good jump on it and go get product.

Big Lee - on 13 Dec 2012
In reply to CurlyStevo:

Bets are off for a white christmas then?
drmarten on 13 Dec 2012
In reply to Jamie Bankhead:
> go get product.

Jamie, no, please.


CurlyStevo - on 13 Dec 2012
In reply to Webster:
Yeah this weekend and early next week don't look too bad in Scotland. It's looking pretty bad for the other areas though. After about 5 days I don't really believe the forecasts that much, but if the jet stream forecast is right there is going to be some major thawing in the whole UK around xmas time.
ebdon - on 13 Dec 2012
In reply to CurlyStevo: for the Western Highlands MWIS has freezing levels at between 1000-1200m for Saturday and Sunday and persistent rain from below 900m on sat, does anyone has some more optimistic forecasts, as this sounds rubbish,Or am i being overly pessimistic?
Cuthbert on 13 Dec 2012
In reply to Jamie Bankhead:

Dude, what language is that?
Jamie B - on 13 Dec 2012
In reply to Saor Alba:

It's the language of positivity.
ebdon - on 13 Dec 2012
In reply to CurlyStevo: I think thats what i need
Rick Ashton - on 13 Dec 2012
In reply to CurlyStevo: As long as it goes cold again from the 26th I'll be happy
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Exile - on 13 Dec 2012
In reply to CurlyStevo:

Maybe time to dust of the new mountain bike I took delivery of three weeks ago but haven't ridden yet as I've been climbing!
CurlyStevo - on 13 Dec 2012
In reply to ebdon:
saturday it mentions terrain frozen in to the glens and sunday some terrain frozen in to the glens and snow fall above 900 metres. EH looks like less precipitation. Winds not too high. Doesn't look too bad to me bet stuff gets done.

Also the quoted temps will be for middle of the day so earlier on it's likely to be colder. But a degree or two above freezing doesn't have to be a show stopper depends what route you have planned to some degree.
Simon Caldwell - on 13 Dec 2012
In reply to jhw:
> Do we think this will be sufficient to kill all the climbing that has formed by weekend after this?

South of the border: yes
North of the border: depends what it does next week (as CurlyStevo suggested, anything beyond 5 days is 'fantasy island'
Carless - on 13 Dec 2012
In reply to Toreador:

Seems like an average Scottish winter... it'll be great when it re-freezes
If it's 5C in Fort Will it can still be ok

Jamie - somehow that's even worse than "send"
jhw - on 13 Dec 2012
It is not the wind or warmth that worries me but the rain...it makes all the climbing go "schlurp" straight off the mountain and into the river
French Erick - on 13 Dec 2012
In reply to jhw:
snowing now down to sea level on the black isle.
Only a hill - on 13 Dec 2012
In reply to CurlyStevo:
As far as I'm concerned conditions can do as they please until mid to late January =)
Jamie B - on 13 Dec 2012
In reply to French Erick:

> snowing now down to sea level on the black isle.

Likewise in Kinloch. Not heavily though, and given that it is landing on well-frozen turf this time that has to be good news.

CurlyStevo - on 13 Dec 2012
In reply to Only a hill:
> (In reply to CurlyStevo)
> As far as I'm concerned conditions can do as they please until mid to late January =)

You may like this then
http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=winter-forecast-2012;sess=
Webster - on 13 Dec 2012
In reply to ebdon: You are being overly pesimistic, the base of the crags in scnechta is around 900m, and in Lochain its closer to 1000m, so it should still be snowing where it counts! besides a bit of freeze-thaw will probably do the climbing some good, and could help to fatten up any ice up there...
Pay Attention - on 13 Dec 2012
In reply to CurlyStevo:

There is an even better forecast here :-http://www.express.co.uk/posts/view/358717/Coldest-winter-in-100-years-on-way

It would mean, for example, that Lake Windermere would completely freeze over to allow ice skating - as it did in 1933.

Unfortunately the Daily Express was wrong about Hitler, wrong about Mussolini ....
subalpine - on 13 Dec 2012
In reply to Pay attention: beware of climbers posting about poor conditions..
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5oX-8TbQhk0
CurlyStevo - on 13 Dec 2012
In reply to Pay attention:
last week the daily mail said this week would be the coldest in 20 years.
Cuthbert on 14 Dec 2012
In reply to CurlyStevo:

Ignore the Daily Mail and erase its existence from your memory. If you buy it you should be shot.
CurlyStevo - on 14 Dec 2012
In reply to Saor Alba:
Aye can't agree more ;)
happy_c - on 14 Dec 2012
In reply to CurlyStevo: Absolutely pissing it down where I am now :( I blame the OP! :)
Milesy - on 14 Dec 2012
According to Cairngorm ski centre it is blizzard conditions and the Glenmore snow gates have been shut. Ski Centre is shut :)
Robyn Vacher - on 14 Dec 2012
In reply to CurlyStevo:

What are conditions likely to be in Wales? My housemate's supposed to be going this weekend (I'm not a winter climber so wouldn't know where best to go to find out)
CurlyStevo - on 14 Dec 2012
In reply to Robyn Vacher:
Heavy rain to the summits and quite windy
http://www.mwis.org.uk/icvrssjeengtto/SD.PDF
Punter S Thompson - on 14 Dec 2012
In reply to Milesy:
> According to Cairngorm ski centre it is blizzard conditions and the Glenmore snow gates have been shut. Ski Centre is shut :)

Last time I went to Scotland boredom drove us to take the Ben Nevis distillery tour as there was no snow and a howling gale driving wind horizontally for a week.

The guy who was taking the tour sympathised with us and claimed that they consistently lied about the skiing conditions. Said all the photos of people skiing had been taken in Italy.

The thought of some huge conspiracy amused me.

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Scomuir on 14 Dec 2012
In reply to Punter S Thompson:

Easy to see for yourself anytime: http://www.winterhighland.info/cams/cairngorm-mountain/
Cuthbert on 14 Dec 2012
In reply to CurlyStevo:

Normal conditions then. Armchairs might be ok on the hill if lashed down.
CurlyStevo - on 14 Dec 2012
In reply to Saor Alba:
Yeah I've not got out this season yet. Scotland it didn't feel worthwhile for me yet as I now live in the SE (rather than Scotland). Lakes and Snowdonia looked OK this week in the lower grades but I don't have the holiday to take off and this weekend and last weekend didn't look worthwhile.

Still I have a trip to Cogne / La Garve / somewhere similar planned for late Jan and hope to get up to Scotland for atleast one mid to late season trip. Anything else I see as a bonus, but tbh I wouldn't travel to the lakes for anything less than good nick.
Cuthbert on 14 Dec 2012
In reply to CurlyStevo:

Aye I know, I just jest as I haven't done a route yet either although I've done a fiar bit of walking and skiing.
CurlyStevo - on 14 Dec 2012
In reply to Saor Alba:
I've done a bit of walking - 16 miles plus up and down various hills near lewes last weekend. I guess you meant winter walking mind ;)
Jamie B - on 14 Dec 2012
In reply to CurlyStevo:

> Scotland it didn't feel worthwhile for me yet as I now live in the SE (rather than Scotland).

Sympathies. Hard to say what effect that sort of distance would have on my motivation. I guess to some extent it depends what you like - thus far the season has been quite good, but only if you like snowed-up rock and informed turf-hunting!
CurlyStevo - on 14 Dec 2012
In reply to Jamie Bankhead:
Even when I lived in Scotland I didn't get super excited about early season nick most years. I prefer neve and ice to mixed routes and when I do mixed routes I prefer well frozen turn and neve on the ledges. It does seem like things were / are starting to get good in scotland this season though.

A good friend of mine hasn't got out this season yet and he lives in Edinburgh.
Simon Caldwell - on 14 Dec 2012
In reply to CurlyStevo:

Still -2 on great dun fell - maybe the big thaw could turn into a big dump of snow?
CurlyStevo - on 14 Dec 2012
In reply to Toreador:
well the big thaw I was looking at was long range, we haven't hit that yet. But this weekend it does look quite touch and go between rain and snow, it wouldn't take the forecast to be out by 'that' much for it to snow.
drmarten on 14 Dec 2012
In reply to CurlyStevo:
My frustrations at getting the season underway have been reduced by considering December as a month in which it is nice to get at least one route done and I've still got two weeks to let that happen. Although I'm champing at the bit I leave it until Jan/Feb/Mar before I let the real frustration set in. I admire those who get the practicalities sorted and their act together to get out while some of us are still faffing about with having to visit family etc before Christmas, add in weather and climbing partner's own situation and December yet again is a barren month for me so far, I'm keeping my fingers crossed for getting a route done prior to Hogmanay.
Jamie B - on 14 Dec 2012
In reply to CurlyStevo:

> I prefer neve and ice to mixed routes

Most people do, largely because they're easier!

CurlyStevo - on 14 Dec 2012
In reply to Jamie Bankhead:
Yeah it's not just that as I like rock climbing, I just love playing in the snow, whacking the axes in, stomping ledges, kicking your front points in - its' basically fun to me. Climbing rock covered in powder / hoar just doesn't do it for me in the same way.
Jamie B - on 14 Dec 2012
In reply to CurlyStevo:

I like the intricacy of mixed climbing, the puzzle-solving and applied mechanics. Despite my modest summer grade it's always been the technicality of rock-climbing which has been drawn me most, and I guess mixed transfers that to winter more than snow/ice climbing - even at grade IV you actually make moves!
Erik B - on 14 Dec 2012
In reply to Jamie Bankhead: aye, the smell of metal sparked against rock, dusty turf... nought sweeter than finding that sinker hidden pick slot, just when all hope and belief starts to vanish.. etc etc
French Erick - on 14 Dec 2012
In reply to Erik B:
quite the poet!
Erik B - on 14 Dec 2012
In reply to French Erick: well, Norman MacCaig is one of my heros afterall! :)
Jamie B - on 14 Dec 2012
In reply to Erik B:

I also like the way you can place numerous solid pieces of pro - at least some of the time!
Neil Pratt - on 14 Dec 2012
In reply to CurlyStevo:
> I just love playing in the snow, whacking the axes in, stomping ledges, kicking your front points in - its' basically fun to me.

Me too - I reckon it's just a grown up response to the same feeling I got when I was 5 or 6 and the snow arrived with a vengeance :-)


Simon Caldwell - on 14 Dec 2012
In reply to CurlyStevo:
> well the big thaw I was looking at was long range, we haven't hit that yet

I know - but there was a thaw predicted in England and Wales today and that may not have happened. Which proves definitively that the long range forecast is wrong :-)
Wesley Orvis - on 14 Dec 2012
In reply to CurlyStevo:

check out www.yr.no it's a great website, it's Norwegian, to go along with mwis and met office, check out the hour by hour forcast and you can type in the exact place i.e. Helvellyn and it gives the temps for the exact spot and altitude, it's been pretty reliable for the last two weeks i have been using it and my guide mate who told me about it said he hasn't been let down yet, more so then the met office and looks good for mid next week and not too much doom for the weekend.
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drunken monkey - on 14 Dec 2012
In reply to CurlyStevo: Currently sat 100ish miles East of Aberdeen on a Oil Platform. Its fecking wild. Sounds like the jetstream is ootside at 10 feet!
CurlyStevo - on 14 Dec 2012
In reply to Wesley Orvis: ok so lets test it both the jet stream forecast and met mountain look warmer around tuesday wednesday time especially for wales and prob the lakes and maybe scotland.
French Erick - on 15 Dec 2012
In reply to Erik B:
He's great. Recently read a book about him and sutherland called the loch of the green coire. Knowing the places and the poems made for sheer enjoyment.

I used to go fly fishing a lot as a kid (brown trout, fast rivers, short rods)...need to get back into it. Never done it in Scotland! We should hook up for that too.
Robert Durran - on 15 Dec 2012
In reply to French Erick:
> (In reply to Erik B)
> He's great. Recently read a book about him and sutherland called the loch of the green coire. Knowing the places and the poems made for sheer enjoyment.

Yes, that is a fabulous book. Andrew Greig's best by a mile.
Auld mick - on 17 Dec 2012
In reply to French Erick: I go to sutherland every year for a week of fly fishing the hill lochs and whisky. Its heaven ! biggest trout was 3lbs and returned to fight another day. I dont climb anymore (still hillwalk)and find this sport gives me the same buzz ?!! started float tubing this year to (sitting in a big inflatable doughnut in wader and flippers) this makes it even more fun. I will one day get a transfer up to sutherland I HOPE>
Mick

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