/ next weekend for winter conditions in Snowdonia

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Pay attention - on 28 Dec 2012
While waiting for the return of winter conditions to Snowdonia, what is the next weekend to expect a good number of routes to be well "in"?

Looking at some of the forecasters:-
Metcheck - apart from the 30th and Jan 1st temperature never drops below 6
Uk.weather.com - temperature consistently below zero for the next ten days (good forecast!)
snow-forecast.com - minus 3 on 30th and New Year's Day, but no longer forecast is available.
MWIS - planning outlook doesn't give long term temperature forecast.
Met office 30 forecast - suggests risk of low temperatures is more likely in the later part of January

So the next weekend for winter conditions in Snowdonia is going to be the 12/13th Jan (because that suits me best).

Anybody have a better prediction?
jas wood - on 28 Dec 2012
In reply to Pay attention: Sounds about right to me. Ill see you up there
highclimber - on 28 Dec 2012
In reply to Pay attention:
> While waiting for the return of winter conditions to Snowdonia, what is the next weekend to expect a good number of routes to be well "in"?
>
> Looking at some of the forecasters:-
> Metcheck - apart from the 30th and Jan 1st temperature never drops below 6
> Uk.weather.com - temperature consistently below zero for the next ten days (good forecast!)
> snow-forecast.com - minus 3 on 30th and New Year's Day, but no longer forecast is available.
> MWIS - planning outlook doesn't give long term temperature forecast.
> Met office 30 forecast - suggests risk of low temperatures is more likely in the later part of January
>
> So the next weekend for winter conditions in Snowdonia is going to be the 12/13th Jan (because that suits me best).
>
> Anybody have a better prediction?

Just a minute, I am trying to find my crystal ball.
smuffy on 28 Dec 2012
In reply to Pay attention: Have a look at the Jet Stream forecast http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream;sess=

If you play the animation you'll see that the forecast up until 13th Jan is for the jet stream to be sat above the UK with the odd day in betweem when it moves marginally. Until it moves south or fragments we'll not get any cold air from the north. Let's hope the forecast changes as we go forward and that mid to late January look far better than of late.
Misha - on 29 Dec 2012
In reply to Pay attention:
Paul, you must be a bit bored to be spending time trawling the long range forecasts, you know it's unpredictable and a week changes everything!

For all it's worth, the BBC monthly outlook ca be a useful indicator of likely trends, eg below average temperature. It's updated every Monday.

I'm focusing on dry tooling, mountain biking and DIY for the time being...
CurlyStevo - on 29 Dec 2012
In reply to Misha: bbc buy their data from the met but reinterpret it. The met office also re evaluates their monthly outlook most days.
Pay attention - on 30 Dec 2012
In reply to smuffy:

Thanks Smuffy - that is an interesting link. Added to bookmarks.

What do you make of the pattern from 09/01 onwards: is that what you meant by moving south and fragmenting? Or something more marked and more sustained?

The site that provides that jetstream animation has a winter forecast that is "Colder Than Average Winter Expected with Prolonged Cold Spells Likeliest in December & January" whereas the Metcheck winter forecast is "Wetter and milder than average" and colder phase in February. Bit of a difference there.

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Walter Mitty - on 31 Dec 2012
In reply to CurlyStevo: The Met office have to interpret the data too, it's all just an interpretation of the same data. Who's to say the Met office are any better at it?


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