UKC

By my count there have now been 8 fatalities in the UK mountains in the last two months - a heavy and depressing toll of almost 1 per week.

Were you aware of that? Do you think about it when you head out?
How do you view, rational and minimise the risks of winter walking and climbing?

Very interested to hear peoples' general thoughts.
What you are thinking about prior to and during Winter days in the mountains?
Are you getting more risk adverse with experience as you get older or are you gaining in confidence as your knowledge improves?
What are the attitudes of others you know, climbers and non-climbers when you head out in Winter?

In reply to Mark Stevenson: Be careful and prepare thoroughly, but accept there is an inherent risk in what you are doing...

There is always a risk, maybes more so in winter walking when all you have is one walking axe.

Not to say that ice climbing is safe. My friend broke his Tibia and Fibula just a few days ago.

There are always risks, subjective and objective. Objective being things like rockfall, avalanche etc. Subjective being personal fitness, preperation and so on.

The risk is quite important really, to put your self in a situation where an error might be hard to undo, or put you at serious risk, brings things such as work and family issues into perspective.

In reply to Mark Stevenson: there are alot of people heading for the mountians though you must take that into acount and think about it im pretty sure its much higher than one a week on the roads

In reply to Mark Stevenson:

While falling could be very nasty when climbing above poor or non-existent gear and I'm sure we've all found ourselves in situations where we simply can't afford to fall, it's still the thought of being avalanched that scares me more than anything when nature ultimately has no respect for experience or judgement and even the best have been caught out. So I suppose I try to rationalise that by comparing climbing to things like driving (on which note, yes, I'm aware that every trip I take out on the roads could be my last), but can't say I'll ever regard either as 'safe'.

In reply to Mark Stevenson:

So many difficult questions here, but to come back to the one posed in your topic title ('1 death a week - an acceptable risk?'), to my mind it's an acceptable risk but not an acceptable toll. To put it quite simply, *no* toll is acceptable, but good risk management, planning and continued alertness when out can render the risk level acceptable.

In reply to Mark Stevenson:

I never think about such things when I'm out and the accidents and deaths don't influence what I decide to do. I plan to have the appropriate equipment for any route I choose and trust in my own skill to achieve that. However, as I am getting older I am still learning and will generally restrict myself to walks or scrambles that don't involve too much risk. Having quite a bit of experience in the Alps for example would enable me to do things like Striding Edge at the moment knowing it is well within my competence. In a recent trip on Helvellyn I had what was fairly unique for me, that of seeing only one other person (and his dog) on the entire walk. As I do not carry a mobile phone or GPS (but intend to get one or both soon) if I had any sort of accident then it would be down to me to deal with the situation. I happen to be carrying full bivvying gear, spare food and clothes and a sleeping bag so I think I could survive quite adequately if uncomfortably if I had to. Of course we can't choose where accidents happen and surviving on the gale-blown top of Helvellyn struggling to stop all your gear being blown away is quite different from lower down.

Partly due to circumstances and because it is my choice no one knows my planned route so the rescue services would not be alerted and scouring the hills but someone might come across a body later if the worst happened. I know this goes against all advice but it is my choice and I feel competent enough to make this choice. I do understand however as I get older that accidents and injuries are more likely and although I rarely had them when younger it seems that I will have to be more careful now.

In reply to Mark Stevenson:

My thoughts, nothing really, no different from a normal day.
Definitlty more risk averse with age.
attitude to others, totally their choice.

In reply to Mark Stevenson:

I love playing in the snow but have a healthy fear of it too. Wasn't aware of the death toll but it doesn't surprise me. I'll only do pretty easy winter stuff, no interest whatsoever in grade-pushing/climbing hard. Basically, I'm a wuss. During winter days I'll have no qualms about taking the easy option if I want to, ego takes second place.
Am getting more risk averse as time passes, if anything, the more I realise how much more there is to life than a bit of a snow and rock. I'd rather challenge myself by moving abroad, teaching and volunteering (as I plan to do once I am qualified) and take risks that can make a difference.
Oh and when I do go out in winter, I want days out to be enjoyable not terrifying. I know for some the two go hand in hand but not for me.

In reply to Mark Stevenson: I find that acceptable, though I've always known the perils of winter climbing. The worst thing about this sort of climbing for me is knowing that if it doesnt kill me it will probably get someone I know. If a friend died climbing, I think I would pack it in and find something else. It seems that as climbers get older they often get into winter mountain climbing. Could think of worse ways to go, its like taking early retirement as you walk off into the white void. Looking forward to March

In reply to Mark Stevenson:
Before anyone can answer the question in your thread title, we'd have to have some idea of how many people had been out (or how many person-days had been had) in the hills during this period.
There will have been something like 1500 alcohol-related deaths in the UK in the same time period ( http://www.statistics.gov.uk/CCI/nugget.asp?ID=1091 ), but of course there are a lot more drinkers than hillgoers.

In reply to Mark Stevenson:
Answering your other questions:

Not of the exact figure, but roughly.

Yes, in winter. I don't give it much thought in summer. I'm very much aware that the risks are much harder to manage in winter than they are in summer.

Avoid the biggest ones as far as possible and manage the others. Keep retreat in mind as an option, where possible. Getting out in winter is worth some degree of risk.

Prior to: excitement, looking forward to getting out; weather, route choice, including conditions, aspect and escapability.

I'm more risk averse since becoming a father. I also have much less opportunity to get out, which I suppose reduces the risks, too!
I'm aware that knowledge and experience help a lot, but that they never even come close to eliminating winter risks.

Very variable. Some don't seem to give it much thought; some refuse to go out climbing in winter, or even walking when the weather is less than perfect.

In reply to Mark Stevenson:


I've ridden motorbikes since my teens and have seen many friends badly injured in accidents and a couple of fatalities in my immediate circle of friends.
I'm getting more risk averse on the road but less on the hill. That said, I'm careful with winter climbing and hill walking, don't really push myself very hard and usually climb with a very experienced winter climber.
I always carry enough kit for an uncomfortable emergency night out.
Non climbers I know think we are all mad but like looking at the photos, climbers get it that the enjoyment outweighs the risk to a certain degree.

In reply to Mark Stevenson:

if you spent all your time dwelling on it you'd be dead from old age

In reply to Mark Stevenson: It would be interesting to see how many folk are killed or injured on the way to the hills. I suspect we will see more folk in trouble with the advent of more people in the mountains who are not mountaineers as such.

The sort of folk I am talking about are like my neighbour who has all the gear for every outdoor sport you could think of but whose experience consists of going on a course. He hasn't done the apprenticeship of finding mates to go and learn with and slowly extending his boundaries. (and no, he is not the sort of chap I want to spend a day out on the hill with!)

Steve D

When you weigh up the inherent risks in life then actually it seems very tame for something that is more extreme than crossing the road.

If you consider the death rate on our roads, the deaths from coronary heart disease etc etc then getting out into the mountains is hardly a thing to worry about.

No, I don't think about it, I go prepared and take responsibility for my actions.

In reply to Rampikino:

>> No, I don't think about it, I go prepared and take responsibility for my actions.

That's how I see it, I can only pass the buck to my brain, I made the decision and I take the consequences.

In reply to Mark Stevenson:
Hi Mark,
I put up a thread awhile ago asking if people who climb and that question can extend to many pastimes realise and accept the fact that it could kill or maim them and I got the impression that many would not accept that.
My own personal take on this is, I took my 15 year old daughter up a grade 1 gully in perfect conditions unroped on Saturday and we both thoroughly enjoyed it, but in retrospect I do wonder if I put her in unacceptable danger.
1 death a week, out of how many participants, and how does that stack up statistically against Rugby or Football or going to the shop for a paper and sitting in all day, and how many of those deaths involved things such as heart failure?
Cheers Beds

In reply to episodit: so, youd prefer to have mountain rescue etc (not to mention family and friends) wasting their time looking everywhere for you so you can achieve some kind of aesthetic / feel about what youre doing?

I quite like the way you phrased that.

Far too often in our modern world we seem too keen to hand responsibility off to somebody else. We want to live by proxy and therefore feel that it is not down to ourselves when something goes wrong.

I have done a lot of solos over the 18 years I have climbed and each time I have made the conscious decision to do so and have not thought for one second that I would blame anybody but myself if it went wrong.

In reply to ksjs:

I'm not sure it's like that - remember the post talked about "being prepared".

Someone who is properly prepared and experienced is much less likely to end up having Mountain Rescue looking for them.

When you consider how much money, how much time and how many resources are despatched to handle and clear up road traffic accidents, it is astounding. And just what % of those accidents HAD to happen?

In reply to ksjs:

Why would they be looking? Family and friends do not know that I am out on the hills. Neighbour might know that I have gone to the Lakes for a few days. As I have said I am responsible for my life ... and death if it happens. I do not of course recommend this approach to others who have reponsibilities to close family but then I do not have such obligations. It appears my stance comes from a different age and I do not see much reason to change it.

In reply to petestack:

To put it quite simply, *no* toll is acceptable

Wouldn't a zero death toll imply pretty much zero risk?

...and not a lot of fun perhaps?

Cheers for your thoughts, I'll expand slightly on mine.

When I'm out on the hill these days I certainly notice that I'm doing a lot more dynamic risk assessment especially as concerns the snowpack and avalanche risk. I am also a lot more aware of the need to maintain concentration on easy but exposed ground.

I am also coming round to accept that even with Winter Mountaineering/Climbing perhaps the best way to understand it better is to teach others about it. You rapidly lose any sense of complacency when you start looking after others in the mountains.

Even when I'm just out for myself I now spend a lot more of my time on the hill thinking about what I'm doing. I occasionally think this detracts from the experience as I expend more mental energy than I might have done in the past. However, I then consider the number of people who haven't made it off the hill and feels that fully justifies having a slightly paranoid outlook.

In reply to Mark Stevenson:

That strikes a chord.

It is actually fascinating to climb around places like Aonach Mor and The Cairngorms because often you are walking off the hill in full sight of people skiing - and in my experience you are 100% likely to see at least one of these people fall over, take a crazy tumble, end up on their ass etc.

At the end of such a day the climbers are less likely to be in A&E than the skiers, and yet skiing is formally organised, in set areas that have been pisted to make them safe and graded etc, whereby the climbing is much more down to the individual/pairings involved.

In reply to Flicka:


But this says something about people's risk awareness. The tragic accident this weekend on Gable appears really quite rare in that it was a roped team of climbers. Of course they might have been climbing together whilst roped, but it seems more likely a belay failed. But the vast majority of winter accidents are either hill walkers or climbers approaching or descending from climbs.

I've followed mountain rescue stories in the UK for almost 20 years now, and actually studied media reporting of them for three winters whilst at uni. Deaths from roped falls are very rare. I remember a pair being killed on Ben Nevis when a fall on one of the Minus gullies ripped a belay and both fell, but that was the early 90s. It would seem that technical climbing is often the safest part of a day out in the hill in winter.

In reply to Mark Stevenson:

One thing I have noticed is that often the avalanche risks are not appreciated if the terrain is not known intimately and conditions are such that cloud and clag are the main thing seen. An avalanche-prone slope may be passed without seeing it and perhaps triggerd by others above.

In reply to Rampikino: i agree 100% re road accidents but that doesnt change my point on going out into the mountains without notice (its a bit more obvious if i total my car than if im lost and buried in snow)

It's fair enough to argue around the lack of responsibility and the impact on others, but what is your suggestion as to what SHOULD happen?

In reply to Mark Stevenson: 8 deaths is a lot in such a short space of time. It would also appear (from what I've read) that most of them have been well equipped and experienced. We should be under no illusions that winter climbing is a dangerous game, many times more so than rock climbing.

Comparisons with driving are also pointless, millions of people drive every day, clocking up thousands of miles and hours on the road each year. In terms of accidents per man hour spent driving versus winter climbing, the latter is probably thousands of times more dangerous.

That said, I still winter climb, despite having been badly injured doing so myself. I consider myself to be a cautious climber but then I always was, just unlucky once!

Statistically, more accidents happen in hard winters, presumably this counts as one of those. This, I would imagine, is because more people are attracted into the hills if there are good climbing conditions (its been very busy out there recently), so the accident rate would appear to be more a function of the number of people taking the risk rather than their experience.

To conclude, experience, knowledge and ability may reduce the risk but it remains very high and ultimately it boils down to personal choice of the benefits outweighing the risks.

In reply to episodit: im very much against a culture that seeks to sanitise and regulate everything so please dont mis-understand where im coming from on this. you say you have no obligations but i dont think it would take much to guess youre lost on the hills and, like it or not, you KNOW a search operation would begin. you therefore have a duty to not be a pain in the arse to rescuers surely, even if youre dead? you could just set something 'quiet' up so that somebody knows something about what youre up to.

In reply to Rampikino: assuming youre replying to me: just tell someone. what difference does it make if somebody knows or not?

In reply to ksjs:

Once you get into the loop of communicating your intentions to others then this raises sometimes just the same amount of concern and effort and cost to the resucue services. If you are overdue, your batteries fail, you have to change your route etc. so there are perhaps just as many problems caused than by my approach. As I said it is not for everyone however.

In reply to Mark Stevenson:

Absolutely acceptable, especially when you think of the numbers going out. Is it an acceptable risk to get in your car ever day?

Erm, not sure what you're asking. Can you rephrase?

In reply to Mark Stevenson:

I a week out of how many? The time interval statistic is meanigless without a population figure,

In reply to Mark Stevenson:


Prior - religiously check avalanche forecasts and weather forecasts before going out. Choose activity / location based on both. This doens't mean I won't end up being drowned in spindrift while it's blowing a hoolie in a Cat3 avalanche zone, but it does mean I'm aware of the risks


Both, I think. I'm more confident in navigation and reading snow than I was a few years ago, and don't mind whiteout conditions and deteriorating weather. However, I won't start up a route unless I feel relatively happy about it (although I need it to be challenging to interest me), and when things get tricky, with one dubious ice screw a way below my feet, get rather aware of my own mortality!


If by climbers you mean people who go into the mountains, most of my friends think similarly to myself although not all fully understand the avalanche warnings.
Non climbers (people at work) just think I'm mad and stupid. Hey ho!

In reply to TobyA: There were two women from St Andrews killed when a belay failed around 1980. I think they were climbing Rev Teds gully in Glencoe, we found the bodies as we were scrambling up towards the Wabe. They were still roped together and had stopped falling as they must have fallen one to each side of a large tree. I assume one fell and that the belay failed (they didn't have any pegs).

To the OP - have you seen the figures for skiers (including ski mountaineers) killed in the Alps each winter ? I haven't checked but its in the order of 30 or 40 per year just for France (if you're interested Pistehors.com has the figures)

In reply to Mark Stevenson: Hi Mark

There is a section in the back of 'Games Climbers Play' (I think it is this book) that looked at a winter tradegy it quoted the findings of a Scottish Enquiry that basically sum it up as, if man chooses to go into the hills in winter then people will die.

I was clearing out my room today, trying to get rid of the old paper work that I don't want from my MSc, and found a letter from the wife of a walker we recovered from the bottom of Crib Coch. Quite an emotional read, even after a couple of years.

The mountains are amazing places, but emmensly dangerous in the wrong hands. I personally try not to dwell of the risk, but I have accepted that what i do involves rolling a few dice, albeit that I try and load them in my favour through experience and training. I also rarely go to Scotland, instead head out to winter venues in Wales.

1 fatality a week is a lot, although having seen how some people are equipped for the hills in full winter conditions it doesn't actually surprise me. I think Llanberis MRT had 10+ fatalies last year, that's about one a month in and around Snowdon!

In reply to episodit: there are ways round this i.e. educate those youre telling, pick people with their head screwed on and those who have a sensible 'distance' from you. im no winter climber so dont speak from experience but, despite the fact i respect your approach and recognise that youve thought about it, i still believe you have a more of a responsibility and potential impact than you seem to appreciate. anyway, each to their own and all that...

In reply to Mark Stevenson:
One of the people who died was someone I knew slightly, so yes, it has made me think when I've been out.

I don't winter climb, but I recognise that winter walking is more dangerous than summer walking. I am more cautious, and at the moment I don't feel that I have the skills to go walking on my own in winter, for example. I also worry about my boyfriend, who, although he grew up in the Alps, has less Scottish experience than I have. Something he said recently made me wonder if I have not been looking after him as well as I could have done.

I think I am in the "dangerously experienced novice" stage; I know some things, but hopefully defer to others who are more experienced as appropriate. On the other hand, I complained about a choice of direction the other day because it didn't agree with what I was seeing on map, compass and ground, and I was right...

People from the mountaineering club would have attitudes similar to mine, I assume. Colleagues have commented that I'm mad (even when I'm showing off photos of lovely snow covered mountains). On guy really annoys me with what I percieve as a patronising attitude that what I do is incredibly dangerous and I shouldn't be doing it.

In reply to ksjs:

I possibly might consider doing something about informing someone of my likely location but mostly for winter walking and scrambling I am quite conservative. I generally know when to go out, where to go and with what equipment. I do have quite extensive experience with winter conditions in England, Scotland and Wales as well as several years in the Alps - quite a few 4000m peaks. However I do realse I can be just as liable to have an accident as others, I mostly try to limit the extent of the kind of accident I might have. Heart attacks can strike but I do seem to be fairly fit for my age if not exactly as fit as I would like. This probably limits what I will attempt though so might be a good thing.

In reply to Mark Stevenson:

Another factor would be how many lives a year are saved through the health benefits of exercise, stress management and social benefit of mountaineering. What's the NET toll in that case? Depressing or upbeat?

It would be silly to dismiss the risks and not to mitigate them, but there's no need to be so downbeat about winter walking and climbing is there?

In reply to Mark Stevenson:

Acceptable to whom?

The first Gulf war coincided with one of the best winters there had been for a 5 years. Conditions were good everywhere and for a long time. That winter more climbers were killed in Scotland's hills than British soldiers killed in the Gulf.

On one day 4 people died in three separate accidents. I met three of them hours before they died. Two of my friends had been killed in previous winters.

How each person reacts is different. Some are deeply affected by such things and some aren't.

In my view the best course of action is to find out how the accidents occurred and learn from them so you don't make the same mistake. We all learn from experience, it just doesn't have to be your own experience that you learn from. In the past I have been criticised for suggesting that fatal accidents have not simply been bad luck but had been avoidable. Some people think it is improper to imply criticism of the dead. My view is that the dead are dead and nothing can be done to change that but we can avoid similar tragedies by making sure we understand what went wrong and not making the same mistakes ourselves.

I have had 3 winter accidents (briefly as follows):

1. Causing a small avalanche that half buried me and the mrs.

2. Losing control of a bum slide and slipping hundreds of feet down a long corrie slope into boulders.

3. Getting lost in the Norries in a white out.

Whose fault - MY FAULT! And in each case I learned from the mistakes, looked at it in a Marcus Aurelius kind of way and took those learnings into my future way of working. I am more careful and consider things much more as a result. I never tried to blame anybody but myself and nor would I.

In reply to Mark Stevenson:

Climbing in any form is about calculating the risk and taking every step possible to minimise it.

Poor calculation and cutting corners can often lead to unsavoury outcomes.

As is often stated on here " experience is the sum of our near misses"

A detailed look at the previous and prevailing wind and precipitation factors along with a MWIS and SAIS forecast should provide a suitable basis on which to form an opinion.

However, these may not always be accurate. Never be too brave to turn back.

However getting avalanched an the bottom of No 5 gulley in cat 4/5 conditions deserves very little in the way of sympathy imo.

Since spending some time in BC, Canada a few years ago, I've learnt the value of properly evaluating potentailly suspect slopes and in most conditions I carry a transceiver, probe and shovel.

As you rightly say though, experience counts for a lot.

In reply to Mark Stevenson:

I think many climbers massively underestimate or ignore the extra risks in winter mountaineering over rock climbing, not helped by some bad decision making. The best attitude is an open mind... better half a route, another route or no route at all, than a silly accident when you can see something is wrong if you are looking.

In reply to Offwidth: I think that all my best climbing memories are of climbs where I have been quite unsure of the outcome and felt that I was taking a real risk - usually against my own "better judgement"...

In reply to Mark Stevenson: "Risk benifit assesment" most of us use it everyday. Does the the risk outweigh the benifit, or the benifit out way the risk?

If most people use this in life or in the hills you cant go far wrong, but getting it right is the hard part......

In reply to Removed User:


This seems very true to me. However, I've also found myself becoming more cautious and diligent about knowing the 'right' way to do things over the years, partly as a result of the cumulative emotional effect of my own earlier near misses, and more recently because I've been taking my teenage (17) son with me.

Yes, this has exposed him to more risk than sitting on his arse in front of an XBox, but possibly less risk than if he were to discover winter climbing for himself at university and go off to the Ben with peers with not much sense of how to stay safe, as I did. On the positive side, he does seem to have grown into into a very fine young man, with the maturity and experience to know when to back off stuff he's not comfortable with. I've seen people twice his age who don't do that.

In the more general case I tend to the view that you have a great deal of control over your own level of risk. I've come across people who seem to think that since you don't always get good belays in winter, you may as well not look very hard for them, and then myself been able to dig out peg placements in the same place, etc. etc. If an acceptable level of risk is one that is acceptable to you for what you are planning to do, the 1 death a week figure is not necessarily all that helpful.

One objective assessment of risk - I recently took out some life insurance, and when I told them about my climbing the premiums went up by an amount roughly equivalent to a 1 in 8000 chance of dying each year.

In reply to normal12b:

I think you misunderstand my point, unless you do things like say willfully climb gullys because they have major avalanche risks. Winter climbing has more objective dangers than typical rock climbing, even if you are being careful. All of us as climbers are doing something risky because we want to.

In reply to robinsi197:


...compared to a 1 in 16,800 chance of dying in a road accident (source: http://www.hse.gov.uk/education/statistics.htm ). Given that many of us drive quite long distances for our sport, it would not surprise me if the driving was at least as dangerous as the climbing.


The same source gives a figure for rock climbing as 1 death per 320,000 climbs. UK winter mountaineering is undoubtedly more dangerous, though there doesn't seem to be any data on this. There is an interesting review article here http://pmj.bmj.com/content/85/1004/316.full which cites a source giving the risk of for climbers on Denali as 100 deaths per million days participation. I would be surprised if the figure for UK winter climbing exceeded this by much.

In reply to Mark Bull:

For sure. Driving down the A1 at midnight on a Sunday night after getting up at 4 and having 16 hours on the hill, falling asleep...

In reply to Mark Stevenson:

You need to assess and manage the risks you are taking instead of worrying about meaningless statistics.

If we go back 20 years there are a lot less people on the hills in winter, has the death rate gone up or down?

In reply to robinsi197:

Winter climbing is inherenty risky >>> therefore I'm happy to take risks

Interesting way of looking at it. I know my belays and gear are now far better than many, but I never thought that this might be a factor in addition to lack of experience and knowledge.

In reply to lowersharpnose:

Yes, I suppose so, but that's not really my point. What I was trying to say was that acceptable risk (to those involved) doesn't equate to acceptable death when even one death is still one too many for the dead person and those he/she knew. But, if that's still not clear, I'm afraid I just don't know how to express it better.

In reply to petestack:

I think some people really don't get risk, they think things are near enough risk free or just play ostrich and ignore it; I really think people like this shouldn't trad climb (or in especially bad cases even climb at all). If you are honest you recognise climbing always involves risk and try your best not to do something especially silly. However, most keen practitioners deliberately adjust risk levels up at times, as far as their experience allows them, for the benefits that come along with this. Fully analysing risk seems to me to be missing the point in the opposite direction... risks killing all the joy.

In reply to Offwidth:
I've been told that the most avalanche accidents occur during category 3 days and lets face it a lot of us venture out in these fairly typical conditions. The problem is that the lessons are sometimes hard learnt and ideally you want to be learning from those that have gone before you rather than your own mistakes.

After you've travelled hundreds of slopes or gullies in similar moderately risky conditions it's easy to think this time it will be OK and what you are doing is normal. Ofcourse you are taking a bigger risk doing these things and even if you get away with it someone sooner or later won't. I'm sure we've all been guilty of taking risks larger than we should for not enough net gain, or assessing the risks of the possible options poorly (and comparing them badly considering the possible outcomes).

Sure the objective risk is greater in winter and realistically the belays and protection are not always as good (but that isn't an excuse for not looking for better ones and hopefully finding them). But if you can do your best to minimize the risk you can have some really amazing times climbing in the Scottish winter and to me they are worth it. Perhaps if i loose a close friend that will all change.

How can you justify this statement? Do you really believe that if you go out and spend say 8 hours in the hills in winter climbing you are no more likely to be killed than if you spent 8 hours driving?

The death rate from road accidents is as high as it is because most of us drive most days, clocking up thousands of miles a year.
If you spend 1 day winter climbing your chances of being killed will be hundreds (if not thousands) of times greater than if you spend 1 day driving.

In reply to pec: Looking at those government stats, the risk of INJURY (not death) from road accidents in 1 per 1,432,000km travelled, thats 900,000miles.
The average driver does about 10,000miles per year. Even if we assume that winter climbers do twice that, your chance of injury is 1 for every 45 years of your driving career, thats nearly a lifetime of driving assuming you keep up that high mileage. Your chance of death will be way smaller than this.
Winter climbing is very dangerous, it may be worth the risk, but lets not kid ourselves.

In reply to pec:

These are not truly like-for-like comparisons, only loosely so.

In reply to Rampikino: Not quite sure what point you're making. I realise stats don't tell the whole story but I think my point is valid.

In reply to Mark Stevenson: Sad as it is (and it is sad)but just one of the possible consequences of taking Risks......here's to being able to take risks with out fear of Bans or prosecution.

In reply to Mark Stevenson: Sorry if I am repeating someone elses view as I have only managed to skim through the replies as you have so many.
The title '1 death a week' without the 'an acceptable risk?' part would seem in my mind a number rather low considering the amount of people who enjoy the beauty of winter out and about, especially on the hills where it is accepted that alot of losses are dithering people venturing out in sandshoes and poundshop waterproof.
If this number is inclusive of the winter climbers over there then my first instinct would be to say this is a low number of deaths.
This obviously doesn't take the severity away from the individual losses.

In reply to Mark Stevenson:

I accepted that winter mountaineering is dangerous a long time ago. I dont dwell on it, but neither do I let myself forget it. You dont control all the buttons, but you do have access to most of them, so the level of risk is largely down to you. I have an acute sense of when things are going smoothly, and an equal understanding of when they're getting beyond control. I'm not afraid to admit the latter and run away from the danger; I think this is crucial.

When a friend died in the mountains recently I felt a profound sense of futility and pointlessness in his passing and for the loss for his loved ones. However this only lasted for 2 days until I next went out in the snow; on a blue sky day with good company it all made sense again.

In reply to Dominicandave:

Statistically this is not a low number, its very high for such a short period.
Also most of them have been experienced and well equipped climbers.

In reply to Mark Stevenson: Mark, not good statistics but to look at it another way, you have met Beth and Meg if I was to take on board all the numbers and statistics we are bombarded with I wouldn't let them out their bedrooms, as for going near the kitchen, call the police now!! to think I also let them go outside, cross roads, take them camping, play in rivers and attach ropes to them and drag them up cliffs. My ex wife knows I do all this with them (sometimes doesn't like it) but knows they love it. Sometimes accidents happen no matter how experienced/well equipped we are, happens in other walks of life too. I know this one first hand as you know.

In reply to pec:

Is it statistically high because you rarely get continuously good weather. If you put good climbing days into the statistics rather than actual time it might not seem so high.

In reply to pec:

The trouble is that no one knows whether this is high or not as there are no meaningful participation data to work out a rate (per climb, per hour, per day). A rate would be a true measure of risk, rather than the number of deaths.

As to acceptability, the short answer is that both society and individuals do tacitly consider it acceptable: People contine to do it and society hasn't attempted to restrict it. There's PhDs been done on perception of risk, but I think a pointy headed discussion of it is ultimately a waste of time. More intesting, and useful, is what are the main causes and hazards and what can we do to eliminate or manage these. In safety jargon what's 'reasonably practicable'.

In reply to George Ormerod:

There are estimated to be something like 100,000 - 150,000 climbers in the UK, I believe MBC membership is currently about 60,000 so this seems like a reasonable estimate. Most of these don't winter climb so we're looking at more like 10,000 - 20,000 winter climbers at most. Even keen winter climbers don't get out that many days per year, not compared with how many days you can realistically get out rock climbing in a year.
If there are 10 deaths a year that's 1 per 1,000 - 2,000 from a relatively small number of participation days.
By any standards that's a very dangerous activity, unless you compare it with bomb disposal or Russian roulette!

I'm not suggesting people shouldn't winter climb, far from it, I've been out a lot myself in recent weeks but a lot of posts on here suggest that people are kidding themselves about how dangerous it is.

In reply to Dominicandave:

>

If we weren't having this long cold spell the number of deaths would be much lower. The accident rate always goes up in "hard" winters because more people go out. The actual death rate probably doesn't alter much in terms of participation days. Compared with almost all other sports, its very high.

In reply tolpec how many participation days are there on average per person maybe 10 to 20 so on average roughly one death per 20000 days out. Rather badly it could be a one percent chance of dying of winter climbing each decade you do it! I'm sure good destination choice and avalanche awareness can lower this quite a bit though. Most deaths do seem to be due to going out in poor weather or by avalanche. Although soloing easy routes in poor nick takes it's toll also.

In reply to George Ormerod

But these numbers seem wrong if most of the deaths are in fact hill walkers.

In reply to Mark Stevenson: Actually it is an acceptable risk until it`s you or someone close, then it`s not.

In reply to Mark Stevenson:
Risk isnt necessarily about percentages and stats - its about control.

Deaths attributable to driving has a high percentage I'm sure but we all still drive as we feel in control of the situation and thus it is an acceptable risk.

When Rock climbing I feel more in control than say snow and ice climbing where weather and ice conditions contribute significantly to the danger element - factors arguably out of my control. Thus at present I dont go snow and ice climbing.

So for me its about a personal choice based on having an element of control over the outcome of your own actions.

In reply to robw007: You can have a good idea though what the weather and conifions are likely to be like on any given route based on the previous weather and the current forecast.

In reply to robw007:

Perception of risk is about control, real or illusory. People are willing to accept the risks of driving but wouldn't like to live 1k from a nuclear power station, for example, where clearly the risk from driving is much higher.

Pec - We could argue all day about the stats (which is why it's pointless), but no ones arguing that winter climbing isn't more risky than rock climbing. I doubt it's as risky as Russian Roulette though, or the morgues of Cumbria would have been overflowing last weekend.

In reply to Mark Stevenson:

As a general point of interest, a study was done (in the 80's) by a student being epmloyed by the HSE into how and to whom accidents happened. Being a climber, she did a study into the nmountain and caving accidents, whixh had the happy benefit of getting the HSE to sponsor her climbing for 2 years!!

2 main conclusions;

1 - accidents usually happen to experienced people in "easy" situations (complacency).
2 - the most dangerous part of a climbing or caving weekend was the drive there and home.

Had a quick internet search for this research and drew a blank, but it was done by a Jane Roberts, based at Aston Uni. If anyone else finds it, I'd be interested in seeing it again.

In reply to pec:
Compared with almost all other sports, its very high.

I live in the dominican and can assure you we have 8-9-10 deaths every weekend on the eastcoast. Jetwakeboarding kills about 2 per week and 4x4 hobby limimg kills so many over the hobby month it isn't worth counting.
Put the little Island into perspective and it is pretty average for such a dangerous sport. Winter climbing in itself is in the lap of the gods alone, so freaking dangerous you have to expect to have a bad time to survive on those thin iced things you guys go up. Jesus look at that lakeland guy on his blog 'I couldn't tap the ice more than once as it would be too much', thats just crazy sh1t, IMO.
But I do think British winter climbing is for utter nutters anyway.

In reply to Mark Stevenson: My own thoughts are that climbing is selfish, the enjoyment gained is purely for oneself. The risks are real no matter your experience level. Many accidents occur in winter when folk are tired and trip over their crampons, how many folk on here have tripped and managed to avoid falling too far? the majority I would say.

What annoys me is that,as shown in this thread, climbers tend to have their head in the sand when comes to the reality of what they are doing. When you head out in winter you should be fully aware of your responsibilities to your family and kids if you have any. If you insist on heading out then you have to accept that you are selfish.

using the old rubbish excuse of being run over by a bus or driving doesnt stick, these are generally controlled environments and the risk is far less than being in an uncontrolled winter mountain environment.

it should also be remembered that non fatal accidents can also have a devestating affect on your life and also on your family, serious back injuries or head injuries being an example.

I'm not so sure how much of a controlled environment exists when someone is run over by a bus.

Actually I don't think there is much control at all.

Nope. I think it's a very uncontrolled situation to be run over by a bus, just thinking about it.

In reply to Rampikino: the controlled environment is the rules and system of the road. If you get knoecked down by a bus going tot he shop you clearly arent looking while you are crossing a road. to avoid this use pedestrian crossings

Rather specious I'm afraid Eric.

And to suggest that if you were knocked down by a bus then it must have been your own fault is also a wild generalisation.

People get hurt every day on the roads because of all manner of circumstances and plenty of them are people observing the rules and systems of the road but who have been the unfortunate victime of other people, weather, maniacs, animals etc etc. When this happens, a controlled environment is worthless.

I do get your point about the environment, and I love my winter climbing, but 99% of our existence could be classified as selfish - most of it is unnecessary when you break it down.

In reply to Erik B:

p.s. A bit of internet searching shows that hundreds of accidents have happened ON pedesdtrian crossings over the years.

In reply to Rampikino: when you walk down the street or drive your car you are not consciously taking a selfish risk. when you head out winter climbing you are, AIMO of course

I do understand your principle, but in many ways you are ignorning the risks when you walk down the street - you are less aware of them.

The whole point of the "knocked down by a bus" line to me is that risks exist everywhere in our lives on a greater or smaller level - we just don't tend to worry about some of them. When you think about it, walking along a street while half tonne metal objects are going past only a few feet away at 30+ MPH is quite risky, and yet we don't think about it.

Just because we take risks with winter climbing it doesn't mean we are more likely to get hurt.

(good debate though - I appreciate your points)

In reply to Mark Stevenson: You've got to risk it for a biscuit.

That made me chuckle.

In reply to Rampikino: I dont know a single person who has been run over by a bus, car or lorry. But I do know people who have been killed or seriously injured (with life changing brain damage or spinal injuries) climbing.

Just because life is risky it doesnt justify the conscious selfish act of going climbing

Is your standpoint that we should not do it then?

Climbing is unjustifiable?

In reply to Rampikino: not at all, climbers just have to accept and admit to their families that they are selfish bastards!

In reply to Erik B:

I tend to agree with you when one has responsibilities to family but then this applies to many occupations or other pursuits. Winter climbing in my mind is mostly more dangerous than rock-climbing because there are more variables that we cannot control or minimise sufficiently and conditions can change so quickly.

In reply to pec:

How do you get from 150k climbers to 10 to 20k winter climbers and do you know for certain that all the deaths were winter climbers rather than walkers?

I do hope you're not a statistician but given some of your dodgy assumptions based on shakey data maybe you are

Personally I am a statistician, but not getting involved in those numbers - I've left my maths head out of it and speak only as someone who enjoys winter climbing.

I can't speak for pec though

In reply to:

Interestingly the figure is very similar to the number of deaths from people eating peanuts.

In reply to Mark Stevenson:

Cracking debate -

What is life with out risk?....boring!! Some people like risk more than others.

When i go out climbing winter/summer/alpine/big peaks i dont think 'oooh im going to die' i think 'wow I’m the luckiest person in the world to be able to experience this' (especially when I’m camped on the side of big peak overlooking an entire mountain range) I’m only young but i think I’ve had better 'life changing' experiences in the mountains than 99% suit wearing people that bustle around London staring at the floor. Those experiences where you go all giddy inside and you jump up and down smiling about how bloody fantastic life is….i don’t get that walking down the road.

Life’s about living - live it

ps. this doesn’t mean im reckless - quite the opposite when it comes to climbing hard stuff im quite a wimp, but then again what’s hard for me - may not be hard for you?

Its a never ending discussion!

Agreed, and well put I thought.

We make our choices, but it doesn't make us reckless.

In reply to Mark Stevenson:
What I was trying to get at - not to knock winter climbing - its really entertaining - was to try and point out that its about weighing up the facts then making a personal choice.
No one can ever state to the world that climbing is too dangerous. It may be too dangerous for them - but be considered really safe to others. Thats their choice.

In reply to timjones:
>

I accept that these are back of the envelope calculations but they are reasonable estimates based upon years of observation, I know a lot of climbers and I know how many of them winter climb. (If anyone has the stats to show that the number of winter climbers differs significantly from my estimate I'd be happy to redo my calcs).
Most of the deaths I've read about this year have been climbers not walkers.
My main point however was to refute the ridiculous suggestion made by some people that they as likely (or even more likely) to have an accident driving to the mountains than they are winter climbing.
Even if my stats are out by a factor of 10, winter climbing is still many times more dangerous than driving. Again, if anyone has the stats to demonstrate otherwise I'd like to see them.

In reply to pec: Have you factored in that to drive to a winter crag very often the temps can be well bellow freezing with icey roads or blizzards with snow covering the road? The only road accident I've had that was my fault was on the way back from winter climbing. Stevo

In reply to pec: firstly i haven't read the entire thread yet and apoligise if already mentioned but i believe most climbers deaths aren't when actually climbing but trying to get to route or on decent ? true ?

In reply to petestack:

I disagree pete - to accept the risk is to accept the toll. Risk is only an average toll, across the total number of people/time. Perhaps you are implying that everyone has a different risk, depending on where/when they go, how experienced they are etc. You're risk may be acceptable to you, but we are all in the same sport, and the public doesn't realise the difference between any two winter climbers.

Personally, I can say I am risk averse, through many years of leading groups. I find that having taken up running, I know I can have as much fun at lower levels going faster, as I can on steep stuff - so I keep the hard stuff for the best days.

In reply to joem: ...and think about it im pretty sure its much higher than one a week on the roads (killed).

I used to get lifts out with a talented and impatient young climber. Disaster loomed at every blind bend. Slapping up some unprotected gritstone problem felt positively calming after the trip to the crag.

According to government statistics 2,538 were killed on the roads in 2008. Roughly fifty per week. Almost ten times as many were seriously injured.

The AA and the government considered this "an excellent step in the right direction". Many of the dead were not participants - just people crossing the road and so on. Why is there no outcry? Essentially, these deaths are still considered to be a justifiable part of the price for accessible motoring.

One big difference, as I see it, is that when driving you are more likely to hurt someone else than yourself.

In reply to sean_o_ab:

It might be an idealistic viewpoint, but I stand by it. One death (or life-changing injury) is one too many, but still we climb.


While that's one way of looking at it, it's the not the way I see it.


Of course that's true, but we're *all* still at risk in this sport.


Sometimes my risk may even seem briefly unacceptable to me, but it can be a very scary sport!


I love running too, often run when others are climbing, and certainly don't head pig-headedly into avalanche zones to climb. But I'm still acutely aware that reasonable caution (or even extreme caution) doesn't grant me any kind of immunity from risk unless I simply don't go. And I love climbing, so still I climb.

In reply to Mark Stevenson:

I interviewed one of Britain's elite climbers for my undergrad dissertation. They came up with this gem of a quote that perhaps sums it up for many climbers:

"You can have no risk but then there’s a cost to that as well…You might die, then you die. But if you undergo that risk then you get to live your life well, which is much more important. I think it’s much more a disaster if you live your life and don’t do anything useful with it. If you’ve got the opportunity to do it then it’s worth doing. For me it’s as simple as that"

In reply to Mark Stevenson: working has I have in the Construction Industry for 40 plus years We go to work every day with A death or serious injury somewhere..so climbing isnt so bad realy...and at least your doing something you like and want to...

In reply to Mark Stevenson: I've not been tracking accidents this year so was surprised that there were 8 deaths allready

I think this reflects wales and the lakes being wintry for long periods which hasn't happened to this extent in 10 years maybe more. They are very close to population centres so many more winter person days are being racked up. (eg 40k plus hits on the wales conditions page)

backed away on meggie thursday due to lots of point release avalanches, lots of other climbs done by others. Hard to think my decision wasn't based partly on having been there day before and potential to come back following day.

Definitely more informed than early days and i think happier to make own calls.

Have an excellent no news is good news policy with the wife and family, particularly helpful in the alps.

Attitude of others is obviously dangerous and your obviously crazy to do it, perfectly fair!

In reply to CurlyStevo:
>

I accept your point, although it isn't normal to drive to winter climbing venues on icy roads.
However millions of other people also drive on these same roads in the same conditions. eg all the inhabitants of Cumbria, Snowdonia and the Scottish Highlands plus all the other non climbing visitors (for both work and leisure). They also face an increased risk because of the conditions which will feature in the road accident stats making the accident rate higher for them as well.

In reply to jas wood:

Yes, simple slips, usually on the descent and avalanche take a high toll.

In reply to pec: i think only a fool would suggest that what we do (winter climbers) isn't dangerous however i think experience aswell as skill and good judgement are very valuable assets for keeping yourself the right way up !

In reply to jas wood:

Hi Jas- see my thread above.....its safest when you are on route! Unless you are Leif, or Bethany, when its all pretty dangerous.............

In reply to Mark Stevenson:
I don't think of the risks much because I constantly evaluate them. If it had any influence on what I did I would never come out of my house.

Is the toll acceptable? well, yes. Statistically if a lot of people do it the increase of a fatal accidents happening will too. I'd rather have 8 deaths in so many weeks in the hills than dozens a week related to poor lifestyle, diet and alcohol.

I do much less "risky manoeuvres" as I get older for sure...interestingly I find myself on more serious ground more often however.

Experience and knowledge are 80% of the battle but shit still happens.

Generally speaking, I think as a people what we think of death is very unhealthy. Look at people in Africa...their death toll is so much higher but they keep going because what else could they do. I'm sure they'd rather have no death but we are slowly grinding to a complete halt: if I'm so concerned about my kids dying why having them in the first place?
It's not a very coherent lifestyle I'm describing as I am not sure myself what I'm getting at... Just know that I'm mortal is all.

In reply to French Erick:

We choose to go out into these environments, most of those people in Africa have no choice. That's why they go on with a smile on their face and a 'healthy' attitude to death.

And the whole statement about how we are keeping fit and that counteracts the risk is also somewhat silly.

If your objective is to be healthy, then go to the gym, eat properly and run in the evenings. Same result without the risk of a big rock hitting you on the head or falling down a crevasse.

Most people climb because they like it, and other than managing it, don't think much about risk until something in their life like baby/age/accident/injury/partner (delete as appropriate) suddenly makes it difficult to ignore.

A

P.S. Of course there are those who do it BECAUSE of the risk, but I try not to climb with them !!

In reply to Mark Stevenson:

On the Mountaineering Council Of Scotland web site Bob Sharp has done in depth analysis of Mountain accidents in Scotland. You will find most of the information you need there based on actual incidents, supplied by the Scottish Mountain Rescue Committee of Scotland. There website also holds the annual mountaineering incidents in Scotland and update information. The 2009 incidents are just being collated and checked and will be complete im April/May. This is worth a look by all mountaineers and the Press! who constantly monitor this forum.

Safe climbing and enjoy this wonderful winter.

Heavy

In reply to owrehleeoh:
fair enough!

thinking back about the choice...I could have been different and gone into football when I grew up, instead I followed the rest of the gang and hung about the hills. We think very much of the choice, or freedom of the hills, too much may be.

Agreed, I still go there because I love it.
Agreed once more I try not to climb with people addicted to risk.

In reply to French Erick:

It's all an interesting question. I doubt climbing is very rational (as against rationalised, never underestimate the ability of perfectly sensible people to piece together a superficially cohesive argument to back their irrational pastime or purchase ).

I take my two boys (11 and 12 years old) to the Castle where in between bickering with each other they climb. I also take them out on the crag. They love it. They especially liked Font when we went there.

I guess another question is ..... what am I doing introducing my kids to so 'dangerous' a pastime. Fortunately my wife is also keen which side steps a whole bunch of issues which some people may have.

A

In reply to Mark Stevenson:

Climbing is a dangerous game and winter climbing even more so. There needs to be an implicit acceptance of the possibility of injury or worse. At the same time, your experience and sense of self-preservation will hopefully keep you out of harm's way. At the end of the day, injuries and fatalities are not that common, though there's a sense of 'it only happens to others' until someone you know is involved in an accident or you witness and accident. Being sensible and applying sound judgement helps but of course with winter climbing you never quite know exactly what you're letting yourself in for. What's that axe hooked on?

In reply to Mark Stevenson:

I'd say that's just basic mountain sense. You assess the environment in the same way that you assess a gear or tool placement - it's an ongoing process.

In reply to Mark Stevenson:

Have you got a list and the reasons for the accident?

I've followed this thread over the last week or so and from what I can gather here is the conclusion:
Climbing has a risk. The harder the climb, the higher the risk. What we do as climber to nullify that risk is place good protection, and build bombproof belays. When the protection is poor and the belays aren't up to scratch we justify this by saying to ourselves "I cannot afford to fall here" and climb on. There are those that think driving to the shop is a risky business, and justify it that way.
Yes we can all die from doing anything in our lives, but what we do to prevent that death sets us apart from those who consider us [as climbers]risk takers. What we enjoy as our hobby (or living in some cases) is what the risk averse would call insane, but...thank the lord (in whatever form you wish) we are all different, and take enjoyment in different things.
As long as we enjoy what we do and try our best to remain safe in our judgement then we continue to do it. Comparing the risks to any other hobby isn't going to make it safer. We only have to justify it to ourselves.
Just be aware...the thing we leave behind in the final event, is memories. Try and make them good ones for everybody to enjoy.

In reply to spartan:
4 slips/falls walking unroped, 1 fall climbing roped, 3 avalanched. More details probably don't add anything.

In reply to pec:

I'd probably agree with you.

A few people seem to come across as having the attitude, of "Yes I know it's dangerous but I've decided to do it anyway so don't bother reminding me. I just want to get on with it and I don't like spending time thinking about what can go wrong".

In reply to Mark Stevenson:

Thats unfair Mark. More like:

Yes I know it's dangerous but I've decided to do it anyway so don't bother reminding me about the obvious. I just want to get on with it and and will apply judgement on the route.

In reply to Erik B:

Also tend to agree.

This ties into the first point you made about most accidents being simple trips. People fall because they aren't paying enough attention; you don't pay enough attention because they are either lazy or complacent. If you are fully aware if the risks and responsibilities you have I think that self awareness leads to higher levels of concentration and hence lower risks.

However, as I mentioned earlier, some people may find this somewhat sours their enjoyment of the activity.

In reply to Offwidth:

I know that's what some people THINK they are saying.

However, it is self evident that the risks aren't that obvious - if they were obvious as many people wouldn't be dying.

Secondly I think that anyone who is unwilling to enter into an open and frank discussion about the dangers and risks of what they are doing on the basis of presumed 'obvious' knowledge is seriously compromising their ability to exercise good judgement whilst in the mountains.

In reply to Mark Stevenson:

Pride comes before a fall, only a fool would believe that they are above such errors because those who get caught "are either lazy or complacent".

In reply to Mark Stevenson:
8 fatalities in what way? Climbing, walking, heart attack?
Last time I looked in a MRT journal most fatalities were due to walkers getting lost and falling or illness with a smaller amount down to climbers falling.
So acceptable risk has to be taken in context.
As for myself I take adequate precautions when venturing out onto the hills and always think to myself "what if...?"
Obviously I do not go for over kill (sic) otherwise I would break something just lifting my rucksac.
As I get older I am more confident in my ability but equally more aware of my short comings (bad knees, bad back that sort of thing) and adapt accordingly

In reply to Ian W: Nothing at all wrong with my safety thank you very much Walton!!!!

In Edd Visters book about cimbing all the 8000m peaks he speaks quite alot about his evalutation of risk, in relation to him having a wife and small children - very intresting. Theres also a great bit about a Newpaper reporter who trys to put Edds life into statistics....and Edd disagrees on the grounds that expereince counts for alot when it comes to him making his decsions. Over all a good read i think.

In reply to Mark Stevenson:



Aye, I make no bones about it. I live for myself primarily. I have no kids yet but I'm married. So what? She met me fully "formed" as an adult with a serious love affair with the hills. My family, well they got used to it over the years (+ I'm not the only one with the problem in there). Do they worry? I'm sure they do. Does that worry me? No it doesn't.
Do I want to die? I sure don't as I still love my life, family, friends and hobbies + work far too much.
Is this a coherent way of being? No idea, but it's the way I've been since I was 13/14 and I'm rather happy and appreciated by my relatives.

In reply to Mark Stevenson:

"However, it is self evident that the risks aren't that obvious - if they were obvious as many people wouldn't be dying."

In certain aspects of climbing some objective dangers can't be avoided easily. However, I think risk mamngement issues can be important at times. The Yosemite report on why experienced able climbers died is very illuminating. The question is how do you get people to focus on not doing the same silly things themselves (as I doubt 'browbeating' will help)?

"Secondly I think that anyone who is unwilling to enter into an open and frank discussion about the dangers and risks of what they are doing on the basis of presumed 'obvious' knowledge is seriously compromising their ability to exercise good judgement whilst in the mountains."

Quite frankly that is rubbish, unless of course you mean never engage in that discussion ever, in which case it could still be silly for a well-read observant experienced but quiet climber. On the other hand, one of the most dangerous climbers I've met couldn't shut up about risk and safety alongside risking other's 'life and limb' testing crackpot theories.

In reply to Leif Andrews:

Hands up all those who have spent much of 2009 on crutches (admittedly not through climbing......)

In reply to Offwidth:
I just read the Yosemite report, and as you say, it is very illuminating. The way I read it, it's not really about risk (in the sense of probability) at all, but about the mistakes people make. E.g. "Forces may change direction (two died when their anchors failed for this reason)" and many others. It also dwells on the notion of backup - how many things have to go wrong before the last one kills you. Sobering reading, and highly recommended.

In reply to robinsi197:

'Mistakes' which lead to accidents are all about risk. You have a hazard, you assess the risk (in a climbing sense, rather than form filling sense) and decide what to do about it. The message was very clear that it wasn't just inexperienced climbers having accidents and risk assessment was clearly problematic in some circumstances.

"Most Yosemite victims are experienced climbers, 60% have been climbing for three years or more, lead at least 5.10, are in good condition, and climb frequently. Short climbs and big walls, easy routes and desperate ones – all get their share of the accidents."

"... too high when you consider that at least 80% of the fatalities and many injuries, were easily preventable. In case after case, ignorance, a casual attitude, and/or some form of distraction proved to be the most dangerous aspects of the sport."


http://www.friendsofyosar.org/safety/climbingSafety.html