/ One week til lift off?
From what I've seen with my own eyes on the hill, read on other peoples blogs, and has been put on SAIS and MWIS over the last week, it seems that:
1. Ice has built readily but it's been too cold and dry for too long so has stopped building as fast.
2. Lots of snow has been blown around but it needs to settle a bit.
3. We need a bit of water running before the next big freeze comes along.
4. The snow has mainly been dumped on W through to N/NE aspects because of the strong E/SE winds.
Does this mean that MWIS Outlook of:
"Atlantic southwesterlies from the weekend for at least a week will bring long bouts of upland gales; often severe or storm
force particularly across Scotland.
Freezing level will vary with freeze thaw cycles, although only rarely will higher Scottish summits reach freezing point.
Precipitation will be frequent and often heavy, mostly rain on lower areas, whilst mostly snow on higher summits. Total
precipitation will be considerable on western mountains, with western Scotland bearing the brunt."
could sort out all our wishes in one go!?!?!
1. Ice will continue to form as it is fed from rainfall/snowmelt.
2. Rainfall and freeze thaw cycles will settle the snowpack.
3. There will be more water running in the hills generally.
4. With strong W/SW winds, new snow will be dumped on NE through to SE aspects, covering what is kinda bare at the moment.
All in all, it looks like the hills could be well ripe for winter action of all sorts after the next stormy week or so!!!
Discuss. At length if needed!!
Wise decision? time will tell....
Ha, fair one!!
Guess it all comes down to where the freezing level hovers at over the next week or so. Badly worded from MWIS, but suggests Munros will rarely, if at all, get above freezing point. Either that or I totally mis-read it and they'll rarely be below freezing point....!
Enjoy Rjukan either way :)
I have just paid out a large amount of money and I'm now booked on my MIC training starting on 3rd Feb with PYB.
You've put into words pretty much what I have been thinking. Fingers crossed for my Feb trip!
And so you've nudged my hopes up another notch! I've got a trip from the 2nd til the 9th of Feb and have been checking all sites with an OCD level of interest recently!! I hope you're correct.
That was my initial reading of the "only rarely" bit, but it'd seem a bit odd to say that there'll be freeze-thaw cycles if they basically expect it to be thaw-thaw everywhere except on the highest Scottish peaks and even there to only rarely freeze...
It's quite a difficult thing to read isn't it....here's hoping optimism and crossed fingers wins and they actually DO mean it'll rarely be ABOVE freezing on the tops!!!!
so it will likely be very cold but very windy and very snowy too, so on balance for next weekend I could have made the right decision, but for those on the following week it could be great fun!
Anyway that's the beauty of winter climbing and the wait for conditions. Sometimes your lucky, sometimes your not!
Metcheck is notoriously inaccurate though.
> Metcheck is notoriously inaccurate though.
Yes, computer generated bollocks with ridiculously unrealistic numbers of significant figures in distant forecasts. And don't be fooled by the silly graphics.
No, I think you misread it.
I agree the text was rather ambiguous and to me read more the way it wasn't meant (but I spotted the error), there are often a lot of grammar mistakes on the MWIS forecasts and that's coming from someone who isn't very good at grammar!
Which to me means the freezing point would be above the summits, as isn't the freezing point the altitude at which the 0c line is?
either way it would have been much easier for them to write summits will be above/below freezing most of the week!
> Which to me means the freezing point would be above the summits, as isn't the freezing point the altitude at which the 0c line is?
Not to me it doesn't. Certainly not in the context it is given. It means that summits will generally be below freezing but rarely reach (go above )freezing. Just as clear to me as yesterday's wording!
I've checked again and "reach" has been replaced with "exceed" making it even clearer.
Ha, to clear things up a bit, what I originally posted has been changed on MWIS site after I sent an email to MWIS seeing if they would clarify!!! So, from the horses mouth, temperatures "...will rarely exceed freezing point".
Which is good news for us all I guess!!
One week til lift off? We've had 3 months of intermittently brilliant conditions, we're not waiting for anything!
Was thinking along the same lines myself...
I agree, conditions have been good if you could get out when (and more often, where) they've been good. What I mean is that hopefully by the end of next week things all over the country (of Scotland...) will be built back up to the level they were at before the Big Thaw that Santa brought us all for Christmas!
Conditions have been brilliant for the last 2 weeks. Lots of stuff has been getting done.
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