/ Beating The Weather This Weekend

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alastairmac - on 10 Sep 2013
The forecast looks pretty mixed for this weekend. I'm struggling at present to pinpoint with any confidence anywhere in the UK that looks likely to stay reasonable dry. Any seasoned forecasters willing to suggest what might be the driest / best bet in the UK for Friday through to Sunday ?
victim of mathematics - on 10 Sep 2013
In reply to alastairmac:

Mixed forecast + it only being Tuesday = might as well throw a dart at a map.

Wait and see what the forecasts say later in the week. Or try your luck.
alastairmac - on 10 Sep 2013
In reply to victim of mathematics: You're right. It is a little early. Just in planning mode. Looks like the far south west might be the best bet presently. But as you point out that might change.
Red Rover - on 10 Sep 2013
In reply to alastairmac: Slate maybe.
johncoxmysteriously - on 10 Sep 2013
In reply to alastairmac:

In my experience, it virtually never rains at Swanage. I suppose it must do sometimes. But if it does there's always the Square and Compass.

jcm
CurlyStevo - on 10 Sep 2013
In reply to johncoxmysteriously:
Most places in the SW look ok just now.
The Pylon King on 10 Sep 2013
In reply to victim of mathematics:
> (In reply to alastairmac)
>
> Mixed forecast + it only being Tuesday = might as well throw a dart at a map.
>
> Wait and see what the forecasts say later in the week. Or try your luck.

Unfortunately they are often fairly accurate even this far ahead.

Torquay looks the best bet.
CurlyStevo - on 10 Sep 2013
In reply to johncoxmysteriously:
According to the stats I can easily google on average it rains more in swanage than london.
alastairmac - on 10 Sep 2013
In reply to The Pylon King: Yes. I was thinking about Torquay and possibly North Devon, with a bit of Dartmoor action a possibility depending on how it looks down there. Anybody got any other thoughts?
planetmarshall on 10 Sep 2013
In reply to alastairmac: The MET office use two forecasting models, a 5 day model and a 48 hour model, with the latter one being more accurate ( and, IMHO, the only one of use for outdoor sports ). Even then, its accuracy is dependent on atmospheric conditions. Wait till Thursday and use the rain radar to get an idea of the driest areas.

Andrew.
duchessofmalfi - on 10 Sep 2013
Do they use two different models?

I thought they use a variety of models and publish 48hr and 5day forecasts based on the outcomes of the models rather than having specific and different models for each time period?
Ciderslider - on 10 Sep 2013
In reply to johncoxmysteriously:
> (In reply to alastairmac)
>
> In my experience, it virtually never rains at Swanage. I suppose it must do sometimes. But if it does there's always the Square and Compass.
>
> jcm

Well said that man

planetmarshall on 10 Sep 2013
In reply to duchessofmalfi: They have a local (European and North Atlantic) and global model. The global model is necessary for longer forecasts but is less accurate. More than you ever wanted to know here : http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/learning/science/days-ahead
staceyjg - on 11 Sep 2013
In reply to alastairmac:

I think you'll find that the weather forecasters fail even the day before. I checked the weather at 10pm on Sunday in the hope of going running monday morning, it said it was clear, I woke up monday morning to rain pouring down, and low and behold, the forecast had changed. That was pants!!
alastairmac - on 12 Sep 2013
In reply to staceyjg: Friday and Saturday are starting to look worth a punt even in North Wales at lower elevations but Sunday looks like a wash out . Any local reports from Tremadog, Llanberis, Anglesey for Friday or Saturday appreciated.
dmca - on 13 Sep 2013
In reply to alastairmac:

How fast does North Wales dry (specifically A55 sport stuff)? Thinking of going there Saturday but it looks like rain in the morning
pork pie girl - on 13 Sep 2013
In reply to alastairmac: Malham. Without doubt

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