UKC

Weekend planned for lochaber area this weekend, should I go? Or reschedule for two weeks time. Can't make my mind up

In reply to afshapes:

Both!

In reply to afshapes:

Wish I could but it's one or the other

In reply to afshapes:

On the current forecast I would probably reschedule, but best to wait another couple of days just in case.

In reply to Michael Gordon:

Out of curiosity, where do people look at forecasts for 3+ days in advance? I usually just use a combo of MWIS and met office which gives a reasonable picture of the next couple of days but interested to hear about any other resources?

To OP - Just go for it, if you go out with an open mind you'll have a good time regardless of forecast. It's all to easy to constantly reschedule or not bother going out because of a forecast (they aren't always 100% accurate!)

In reply to CMcBain:

Theres no point looking at a forecast for more than 3 days in advance

In reply to CMcBain:

The general BBC and Met Office forecasts can give some idea. From the TV it looks like it's getting a bit warm, more so on sunday perhaps than sat?

In reply to afshapes:

Yes. You should go. Carp the diem.

There is some solid Bayesian reasoning behind this. Suppose the forecasts for this WE and 2 WEs on are equally good. OK, but the probability of a forecast for this WE is far higher than the probability of a forecast for WE + 2. So your reason to go this WE = the goodness of the forecast x its probability, and that pretty well certainly outscores WE + 2.

Also: there is some probability, perhaps low, that you will in the event be able to go both WEs after all. But if you duck out of this WE you miss that chance automatically.

Also (and here's a cheery thought for you) you might be dead by WE + 2

Everything points to doing everything sooner, not later.

In reply to Tim Chappell:
Interesting but I'd go the other way though, if it's work commitments it's unlikely to change. If you're factoring in potential death you've got bigger issues

I'd also work on the assumption that the short range forecast is accurate, they usually are and you have no other information anyway so you don't really have a choice. I wouldn't bother including the long range forecast unless there's a large change predicted with a high degree of confidence from the forecasties (which there rarely is).

There are two possible goal he might have here, 1 - getting out and 2 - getting out in favourable conditions. If he has a strong preference for 1 then he should go out this weekend if the forecast says it'll be possible. If he has a strong preference for 2 he should hold back, because getting out in good conditions is his priority.

If on the other hand, like most people he's somewhere in the middle then he should hold back also. He wants to get out in good conditions but he'll settle for just getting out if it comes to it. Judging by the amount of days guides go out every year there's a favourable chance that on any given weekend (if you're willing to travel and/or go off the beaten track) there will be something to climb somewhere. So he should wait, in the hopes that conditions will be good and in the knowledge that there's a strong chance something will be at least possible on both weekends.

In reply to Tim Chappell:

Don't confuse him, we'd just reached a decision after much deliberation.

The only flaw that I can see in your logic is that you start with the assumtion that both w/e are equally as good. The forecast isn't good for this weekend despite the evil twisted people at Met check teasing us yesterday with a steadily improving forecast before cackling dementedly whilst going back to their original thaw/high wind scenario and I have no idea what the forecast is for two weeks.

Also, whilst there is considerably more uncertainty for WE +2, this goes both ways so it could turn out better . . .

On the other hand, if I don't get to use my new axes soon I'm going to be very distressed which makes the 1200 mile round trip look more and more like a reasonable gamble . . .

In reply to spearing05:

It's not.too late to book.flights to cogne...

In reply to spearing05:

If the weather craps out, there's always the Ice Factor in Kinlochleven. Unless your ice technique is pretty spry already, two hours in there will give you a workout. And the weather is much more unlikely to stop you from getting there than to stop you getting, say, to the Orion Face