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EU referendum and Scottish Indy referendum

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 girlymonkey 12 Jul 2014
OK, so a tangent to the Indy debates. As far as I understand, (and I do get lost in a lot of the political debates, so I may be wrong!), the UK governement are threatening an EU referendum in the near future. If it were to happen, my understanding is that this would take place shortly after Scotland would go independent in the event of a yes vote.
Firstly, am I understanding this point?
Secondly, what kind of issues could each of these events create for each other? For example, if we vote no, and then UK govt has EU referendum, are we more likely to leave or stay in EU with Scotland being part of the vote? Or if we vote yes, and then UK votes to leave EU, how could that affect us?
I can't get my head around all this stuff at all!!
 Cuthbert 12 Jul 2014
In reply to girlymonkey:

Firstly yes, you are correct but.....I think if Scotland votes Yes then things will change very quickly and the rUK mood would quickly change and mate a leave-the-EU vote very unlikely.

If Scotland votes No and there is an EU referendum (dependent on various things) then I think Scotland becomes an irrelevance due to numbers and just has to take whatever the result is.

Bear in mind that the EU border between Norway and Sweden is a rock at the side of the road. It depends on which state the border is with though.

 Sir Chasm 12 Jul 2014
In reply to girlymonkey:

Yes. And, in your second scenario we are all still one happy country and if most people vote to stay in the EU then there we stay.
OP girlymonkey 12 Jul 2014
In reply to Sir Chasm:

But if we vote yes, we are hoping to get into Europe? So if we stay and UK leaves, will things get complicated?
 Cuthbert 12 Jul 2014
In reply to girlymonkey:

We are already in Europe. All of Scots laws is EU compliant already as is the rest of the UK.

But if the UK population votes to leave the EU Scotland has to take it regardless of which way Scotland votes. In a No vote scenario I mean.
 Sir Chasm 12 Jul 2014
In reply to girlymonkey:

> But if we vote yes, we are hoping to get into Europe? So if we stay and UK leaves, will things get complicated?

Not at all, iScotland will be a new country and can apply to join the EU as any other country can.
OP girlymonkey 12 Jul 2014
In reply to Saor Alba:

I get that we are in the EU, and that in a no vote to Scottish indipendnce we are just part of the UK voting on EU. But if we do go independent, and the rest of the UK leaves Europe, do borders and trade etc become complicated? Will we need a passport to climb in the lakes?!
Jim C 12 Jul 2014
In reply to girlymonkey:

> But if we vote yes, we are hoping to get into Europe? So if we stay and UK leaves, will things get complicated?

If the vote is Yes, Scotland will be negotiating to stay in Europe, from within Europe, as ,in the event of a yes vote they EU would not immediately remove your European citizenship .( so you must still be in the EU). Scotland would also be expected to obey all existing treaties during the negotiation period. If the negotiations fail, then that is the point at which things change.

Unless someone knows differently.
OP girlymonkey 12 Jul 2014
In reply to Jim C:

So as long as we completed these negotiations before the EU ref, we would still be in europe, in the case of a Scottish yes vote, even in the rest of UK voted no to Europe?!
This politics malarky is too complicated for my liking, too many ifs!!!
 Sir Chasm 12 Jul 2014
In reply to Jim C:

> If the vote is Yes, Scotland will be negotiating to stay in Europe, from within Europe, as ,in the event of a yes vote they EU would not immediately remove your European citizenship .( so you must still be in the EU). Scotland would also be expected to obey all existing treaties during the negotiation period. If the negotiations fail, then that is the point at which things change.

> Unless someone knows differently.

You're wrong, sorry. You get to be an EU citizen if your country is a member of the EU. You see I'm an EU citizen now, but if I go and become an Australian then as Australia isn't in the EU then I wouldn't be an EU citizen.
Jim C 12 Jul 2014
In reply to Sir Chasm:
> You're wrong, sorry. You get to be an EU citizen if your country is a member of the EU. You see I'm an EU citizen now, but if I go and become an Australian then as Australia isn't in the EU then I wouldn't be an EU citizen.

Are you sure I'm wrong Sir C

I did say after a yes note Everyone in Scotland will still be a EU citizen. Not after the countries formally separate.
Is that wrong ?

Your link is talking about a different thing, Scotland has not left the UK if it votes yes.

Post edited at 23:00
 Sir Chasm 12 Jul 2014
In reply to Jim C:

> Are you sure I'm wrong Sir C

> I did say after a yes note Everyone in Scotland will still be a EU citizen. Not after the countries formally separate.

> Is that wrong ?

> Your link is talking about a different thing.

Fine, people in Scotland are EU citizens until 2016. Until iScotland becomes an independent country.

Decided yet Jim?
OP girlymonkey 12 Jul 2014
In reply to girlymonkey:
So far no one really seems to be able to answer what happens if we become independent, and UK leaves EU. Does this mean nothing changes? Seems to be 2 huge decisions so no change seems unlikely!
Post edited at 23:09
Jim C 12 Jul 2014
In reply to Sir Chasm:

> Fine, people in Scotland are EU citizens until 2016. Until iScotland becomes an independent country.

> Decided yet Jim?

I have always said that I will listen to both sides until voting day, so you can stop asking.

However, I do like to pick out facts ( where they are available)

This one is clear, Scotland will be applying to join the EU from within the EU ( until 2016)
At which point , if the process is not completed the EU CAN , if they want expel Scotland and throw Scottish citizens out of the EU.

However, do you think that it is likely, or will they find a way ( fudge it) to keep Scotland in the EU whilst the negotiations are ongoing?

What do you think ?
 Dr.S at work 12 Jul 2014
In reply to girlymonkey:

That because we do not actually know.

There are a range of options:

Scotland leaves UK, and is not admitted to the EU, rUK stays in the EU

Scotland leaves UK, is admitted to EU, rUK leaves EU

Scotland leaves UK, is admitted to EU, rUK stays in EU

Scotland remains in UK, UK stays in EU

Scotland remains in UK, UK leaves EU


Even if we knew which of these outocmes was correct, its still not clear what that actually means - its unlikely there would be big changes in movemnt rules in the british isles whatever the outcome however.

(probably worst outcome in this respect - Scotland in EU, a bitter and reactionary rUK out of EU)

 Sir Chasm 12 Jul 2014
In reply to Jim C:

> I have always said that I will listen to both sides until voting day, so you can stop asking.

> However, I do like to pick out facts ( where they are available)

> This one is clear, Scotland will be applying to join the EU from within the EU ( until 2016)

> At which point , if the process is not completed the EU CAN , if they want expel Scotland and throw Scottish citizens out of the EU.

Don't be silly Jim, iScotland isn't an EU member so it can't be thrown out.

> However, do you think that it is likely, or will they find a way ( fudge it) to keep Scotland in the EU whilst the negotiations are ongoing?

> What do you think ?

I think, Jim, it'll be a no vote and 68/32. But, in the event of yes, I see no compelling reason why 28 countries would unanimously bend over backwards to accommodate a small country applying to join.

And I still don't believe you're undecided.
 Bruce Hooker 12 Jul 2014
In reply to Dr.S at work:

The chances are Britain will vote to stay in the EU so if Scotland votes to stay with the rest of Britain it will stay in the EU too with no interruption. If Scotland votes to leave the rest of Britain then it will need to apply to join the EU so there will be a period when it is not in the EU, the length of which is unknown at present.
Jim C 12 Jul 2014
In reply to Sir Chasm:
> Don't be silly Jim, iScotland isn't an EU member so it can't be thrown out.

> I think, Jim, it'll be a no vote and 68/32. But, in the event of yes, I see no compelling reason why 28 countries would unanimously bend over backwards to accommodate a small country applying to join.
And I think there would be a fudge
( I'm saying you are wrong about it being a no vote, which I have said several times on here , looks the most likely outcome )
But that is not a reason not to take the opportunity vote seriously.


> And I still don't believe you're undecided.
I would rather you just say , Jim you are a liar , if that is what you think.

I have spent many hours, ( weekends even) watching all the debates online and on TV, it would save me a lot of time and bother, if I was already decided. I don't follow your logic.


Post edited at 23:41
 Cuthbert 12 Jul 2014
In reply to Dr.S at work:

Yes but your entire post assumes that assumes Scotland needs to be admitted which isn't the case.

It is equally valid to say:

Scotland leaves UK, stays in EU, rUK stays in the EU

Scotland leaves UK, does not stay in EU, rUK leaves EU

Scotland leaves UK, stays in EU, rUK stays in EU

Scotland remains in UK, UK stays in EU

and it also equally valid to say:

Scotland leaves UK, Scotland and rUK stays in the EU

Scotland leaves UK, neither Scotland or rUK are admitted to the EU

 Dr.S at work 12 Jul 2014
In reply to Saor Alba:

> Yes but your entire post assumes that assumes Scotland needs to be admitted which isn't the case.

Unless you listen to that nice Mr Juncker apparently.

We can probaly both agree that the most likely outocme is that we will not need passports to transit between England and Scotland.
 RomTheBear 13 Jul 2014
In reply to Bruce Hooker:
> The chances are Britain will vote to stay in the EU so if Scotland votes to stay with the rest of Britain it will stay in the EU too with no interruption.

Quite a bold statement, the majority of the polls for the past 5 years are showing that the UK would vote out of the EU.
On of the latest poll is showing support for leaving the EU at 47% and stay only at 37%...

This is the biggest threat to Scotland's membership to the EU IMHO
Post edited at 00:03
Jim C 13 Jul 2014
In reply to Bruce Hooker:
If Scotland votes to leave the rest of Britain then it will need to apply to join the EU
Correct( whilst they are still part of the UK, and so within the EU, so negotiating from within)

so there will be a period when it is not in the EU, the length of which is unknown at present.
What you say is not quite correct. ( I thought the earlier posts had sorted this out)

Only after Scotland leaves the UK ( 2016) and only if the negotiations to join had failed before that date, or not completed, would / could there be a period that Scotland would / could not be in the EU.

So it is not true to say there definitely Will be a period that Scotland will not be in the EU but in certain circumstances beyond 2016, it is possible that an IScotland would be out of the EU.

( but IF the negotiations are still ongoing after 2016, it is very likely the EU will then just see it to an end, without removing citizenship from everyone in Scotland, I can't see any country , even a Spain insisting on that)



 RomTheBear 13 Jul 2014
In reply to girlymonkey:
It's really a shame that we have to vote on Scottish independence before a EU referendum takes place.

If the UK takes Scotland out of the EU, which looks like an increasingly possible outcome according to the polls, it's unlikely that we will be given another shot at a referendum.

The worst possible scenario for Scotland would be to have a Tory win at the next GE and an exit of the EU, then I can guarantee you that people here are going to be seriously pissed off.
Post edited at 00:18
 Cuthbert 13 Jul 2014
In reply to Dr.S at work:

Agreed. But I hear Scotland will be "foreign" though?
OP girlymonkey 13 Jul 2014
In reply to girlymonkey:

So are any of you letting the EU referendum influence your desicion on the Scottish independence referendum then?
 RomTheBear 13 Jul 2014
In reply to girlymonkey:
> So are any of you letting the EU referendum influence your desicion on the Scottish independence referendum then?

Since an EU referendum will take place AFTER the indyref, it's difficult.
But speaking for myself if in September it's really obvious that the Uk is on a path to exit the EU through a referendum (this is not so clear cut at the moment) then my vote will be definite YES.
Post edited at 11:06
 Bruce Hooker 13 Jul 2014
In reply to girlymonkey:
> So are any of you letting the EU referendum influence your desicion on the Scottish independence referendum then?

It would not be logical if it were as it's very doubtful that even a "yes" vote in the planned referendum would see independence all sorted out in less than a few years - remember the yes only tells the British government that the inhabitants of Scotland are in favour of independence, it's not binding and it is only the start of a procedure which judging by the nit-picking one reads could be quite long. On top of that the EU referendum has only been "promised" by the tories and not many book-makers are giving them much or a chance of getting re-elected.. If they don't no referendum so Britain stays in the EU no matter what some opinion polls say about Brits wanting to leave.

It seems to me that this is just another "smart ploy" by SNP spin-merchants trying to get a little extra support for independence... sounds of barrel scraping are fairly evident!

PS. Even if an EU referendum took place it's by no means certain people would be in favour, a good majority were in favour last time and when people started to think a little about the jobs involved and practical issues I can't see nonsense really winning through, Britain and the City has so much to lose by leaving the EU.
Post edited at 16:39
 FreshSlate 13 Jul 2014
In reply to Saor Alba:

> Yes but your entire post assumes that assumes Scotland needs to be admitted which isn't the case.

> It is equally valid to say:

> Scotland leaves UK, stays in EU, rUK stays in the EU

> Scotland leaves UK, does not stay in EU, rUK leaves EU

> Scotland leaves UK, stays in EU, rUK stays in EU

> Scotland remains in UK, UK stays in EU

> and it also equally valid to say:

> Scotland leaves UK, Scotland and rUK stays in the EU

> Scotland leaves UK, neither Scotland or rUK are admitted to the EU

Surely Scotland needs to negotiate terms with the EU? Why would they not need to be admitted.
 Cuthbert 13 Jul 2014
In reply to FreshSlate:

"they"? There is no reason Scotland wouldn't stay in the EU and every reason it would.
 Sir Chasm 13 Jul 2014
In reply to Saor Alba:

> "they"? There is no reason Scotland wouldn't stay in the EU and every reason it would.

Apart from the fact that there is no member of the EU called Scotland. Really, this comes across as rather disingenuous.
 Bulls Crack 13 Jul 2014
In reply to girlymonkey:

I really hope we don't have an EU referendum...you cant leave decisions of this magnitude to UKIP f*ckwits turning up on the day
 RomTheBear 14 Jul 2014
In reply to Sir Chasm:

Well there are more chances to stay in the eu in a country where the majority wants to stay than in a country where the majority wants out...
Anyway IMHO the EU has bigger problems than Scotland.
 Sir Chasm 14 Jul 2014
In reply to RomTheBear:

> Well there are more chances to stay in the eu in a country where the majority wants to stay than in a country where the majority wants out...

> Anyway IMHO the EU has bigger problems than Scotland.

Apparently it's deportation for all foreign types http://m.scotsman.com/news/politics/top-stories/sturgeon-warns-europeans-co...
Interesting negotiating tactic from the SNP, I wonder if there could be any downside.
 tony 14 Jul 2014
In reply to Sir Chasm:

The line:
“There are 160,000 EU nationals from other states living in Scotland, including some in the Commonwealth Games city of Glasgow."

Why would EU citizens be bothered about Glasgow being the Commonwealth Games host city this year? What an odd thing to say.
 RomTheBear 14 Jul 2014
In reply to Sir Chasm:
> Apparently it's deportation for all foreign types http://m.scotsman.com/news/politics/top-stories/sturgeon-warns-europeans-co...

Well under the current immigration law if we exit the EU then most EU immigrants in the UK will have to leave, that's a fact.
Post edited at 10:42
In reply to RomTheBear:

> Well under the current immigration law if we exit the EU then most EU immigrants will have to leave, that's a fact.

Hmmm -- I suppose that goes for the English and Irish who've settled in Scotland as well. Would that lead to 'tit for tat' expulsions (or at least the requirement for work and residence permits) for Scots south of the border? It opens a whole new can of worms!

So many unanswered questions, and so many questions the politicians dont want the people to ask!
 RomTheBear 14 Jul 2014
In reply to Lord of Starkness:

> Hmmm -- I suppose that goes for the English and Irish who've settled in Scotland as well. Would that lead to 'tit for tat' expulsions (or at least the requirement for work and residence permits) for Scots south of the border? It opens a whole new can of worms!

For the Irish yes, not for English who settled here and the Scots south of the border, because the English settled here would automatically get Scottish citizenship and the Scots would retain their British citizenship.

> So many unanswered questions, and so many questions the politicians dont want the people to ask!

Well there are many unanswered question but this is one of the few that was actually answered.
 Sir Chasm 14 Jul 2014
In reply to RomTheBear:

> Well under the current immigration law if we exit the EU then most EU immigrants in the UK will have to leave, that's a fact.

Laws, like constitutions, get amended all the time. Amending immigration laws to allow EU immigrants to stay would be simple.
 RomTheBear 14 Jul 2014
In reply to Sir Chasm:
> Laws, like constitutions, get amended all the time. Amending immigration laws to allow EU immigrants to stay would be simple.

Unlikely that it would be politicly viable to make a law for EU immigrants to be able to stay whilst our own emigrants living elsewhere in Europe would be forced to come back. Also it would be far from simple, you would still have to decide who can stay and who has to leave.
Post edited at 11:35
 wynaptomos 14 Jul 2014
In reply to RomTheBear:

One thing I find depressing about a lot of these Independence debates is, after complaining how many English people conflate UK as England, how many Scots seem to believe that the UK is purely Scotland and England.
 RomTheBear 14 Jul 2014
In reply to wynaptomos:

> One thing I find depressing about a lot of these Independence debates is, after complaining how many English people conflate UK as England, how many Scots seem to believe that the UK is purely Scotland and England.

I don;t think this is the case. Why do you think it is ?
 Sir Chasm 14 Jul 2014
In reply to RomTheBear:

> Unlikely that it would be politicly viable to make a law for EU immigrants to be able to stay whilst our own emigrants living elsewhere in Europe would be forced to come back. Also it would be far from simple, you would still have to decide who can stay and who has to leave.

It'd be simple, if a EU country booted out our emigrants we'd boot out their immigrants. But at the moment the UK isn't making any silly threats, unlike the SNP.
 wynaptomos 14 Jul 2014
In reply to RomTheBear:

Yours and Lord of Starkness' comments from 11:01 for a start but there have been several other instances over all these threads.
 RomTheBear 14 Jul 2014
In reply to Sir Chasm:

> It'd be simple, if a EU country booted out our emigrants we'd boot out their immigrants. But at the moment the UK isn't making any silly threats, unlike the SNP.

The SNP is simply stating the fact that if we get out of the EU there is a risk to the residency rights of EU immigrants. I don't think it is a threat in any way, all the SNP wants (and most people in Scotland) is to STAY in the EU and make sure EU immigrants can stay in Scotland.
 RomTheBear 14 Jul 2014
In reply to wynaptomos:

> Yours and Lord of Starkness' comments from 11:01 for a start but there have been several other instances over all these threads.

Lord of Starkness was asking me about the English and the Scots and therefore replied on what he was asking about, it doesn't mean I am unaware of the fact that it would be the same case for NI and Wales.
In reply to wynaptomos:

I am fully aware of the current constituent parts of the United Kingdom. I was highlighting the nationalities that would be most affected by any change.

If Independence happens it's going to lead to a bureaucratic nightmare for all affected parties, and the only people to benefit will be the legal profession -- it's little wonder that so many lawyers enter politics -- talk about looking after their own kind first.
 Sir Chasm 14 Jul 2014
In reply to RomTheBear:

> The SNP is simply stating the fact that if we get out of the EU there is a risk to the residency rights of EU immigrants. I don't think it is a threat in any way, all the SNP wants (and most people in Scotland) is to STAY in the EU and make sure EU immigrants can stay in Scotland.

Of course it's a threat, a stupid, shortsighted, toothless one, but a threat nonetheless. If Scotland became independent and wasn't in the eu it could have whatever immigration policy it chose. So why suggest iScotland might choose to deport EU immigrants?
 RomTheBear 14 Jul 2014
In reply to Sir Chasm:
> Of course it's a threat, a stupid, shortsighted, toothless one, but a threat nonetheless. If Scotland became independent and wasn't in the eu it could have whatever immigration policy it chose. So why suggest iScotland might choose to deport EU immigrants?

I don't think that's a threat to say that there would be a risk for EU immigrants living in Scotland if Scotland finds itself out of the EU, because of independence of because of an EU referendum.
I think it's a rather sensible observation, I don't see why this is a threat.
The SNP wants immigrants to stay and stay in the EU. The real threat comes from UKIP and the tory backbenchers.
Post edited at 13:05
In reply to Sir Chasm:

> Laws, like constitutions, get amended all the time. Amending immigration laws to allow EU immigrants to stay would be simple.

Just as simple as amending a treaty so Scotland stays in the EU and the whole hassle is avoided?

 Sir Chasm 14 Jul 2014
In reply to RomTheBear:

> I don't think that's a threat to say that there would be a risk for EU immigrants living in Scotland if Scotland finds itself out of the EU, because of independence of because of an EU referendum.

> I think it's a rather sensible observation, I don't see why this is a threat.

> The SNP wants immigrants to stay and stay in the EU. The real threat comes from UKIP and the tory backbenchers.

Well, look a what she said “If Scotland was outside ­Europe, they would lose the right to stay here.”. Why? Post independence immigration would be a matter for iScotland (unless you're suggesting iScotland would keep the same legislation as rUK). It's ridiculous sabre rattling, bullying bluff and bluster, to suggest to the EU that they'd better ease iScotland's passage into the EU or the will be consequences.
 Sir Chasm 14 Jul 2014
In reply to tom_in_edinburgh:

> Just as simple as amending a treaty so Scotland stays in the EU and the whole hassle is avoided?

Yes, all you have to do is get the agreement of 28 countries. Have we accepted that iScotland won't automatically be an EU member state now? Oh good.
 RomTheBear 14 Jul 2014
In reply to Sir Chasm:

> Well, look a what she said “If Scotland was outside ­Europe, they would lose the right to stay here.”. Why? Post independence immigration would be a matter for iScotland (unless you're suggesting iScotland would keep the same legislation as rUK). It's ridiculous sabre rattling, bullying bluff and bluster, to suggest to the EU that they'd better ease iScotland's passage into the EU or the will be consequences.

She is simply pointing out that there is a risk to the residency right of EU immigrants is scotland is out of the EU, it seems pretty obvious to me !
 RomTheBear 14 Jul 2014
In reply to Sir Chasm:

> Yes, all you have to do is get the agreement of 28 countries. Have we accepted that iScotland won't automatically be an EU member state now? Oh good.

Bullshit, All you need is a simple majority of the EU council. Article 48 of the Lisbon Treaty.
 Sir Chasm 14 Jul 2014
In reply to RomTheBear:

> Bullshit, All you need is a simple majority of the EU council. Article 48 of the Lisbon Treaty.

Oh, it'd be article 48 rather than 49 would it? I suppose that's another "fact".
 RomTheBear 14 Jul 2014
In reply to Sir Chasm:

> Oh, it'd be article 48 rather than 49 would it? I suppose that's another "fact".

Why do you think it has to be article 49 ?
 Sir Chasm 14 Jul 2014
In reply to RomTheBear:

> She is simply pointing out that there is a risk to the residency right of EU immigrants is scotland is out of the EU, it seems pretty obvious to me !

Again, they would only lose their residency if iScotland chose to throw them out.
 RomTheBear 14 Jul 2014
In reply to Sir Chasm:
> Again, they would only lose their residency if iScotland chose to throw them out.

Which they probably won't do, and clearly don't want to do, but there is still a risk, new legislation would have to be brought before parliament and adopted. Pointing out that there is a risk is totally fair, as much as it is to point out the risk that Scotland might not be able to join the EU.

And again if Scotland stays in the UK, and the UK heads out of the EU and chose to throw them out, the Scottish Parliament will have no way to retain EU immigrants even if they want to.
Post edited at 13:33
 Sir Chasm 14 Jul 2014
In reply to RomTheBear:

> Why do you think it has to be article 49 ?

Now rom, where did I say it has to be article 49? You can argue for either.
 Sir Chasm 14 Jul 2014
In reply to RomTheBear:

> Which they probably won't do, and clearly don't want to do, but there is still a risk, new legislation would have to be brought before parliament and adopted. Pointing out that there is a risk is totally fair, as much as it is to point out the risk that Scotland might not be able to join the EU.

> And again if Scotland stays in the UK, and the UK heads out of the EU and chose to throw them out, the Scottish Parliament will have no way to retain EU immigrants even if they want to.

Again you fail to read, or understand, what she said.“If Scotland was outside ­Europe, they would lose the right to stay here.”. The important word is "would", not may or could, but " would".
 RomTheBear 14 Jul 2014
In reply to Sir Chasm:
> Again you fail to read, or understand, what she said.“If Scotland was outside ­Europe, they would lose the right to stay here.”. The important word is "would", not may or could, but " would".

Well yes that's a fact, they would lose the right to stay here under current laws.
Post edited at 13:42
 RomTheBear 14 Jul 2014
In reply to Sir Chasm:

> Now rom, where did I say it has to be article 49? You can argue for either.

Where did I say it has to be for 48 ?
 Sir Chasm 14 Jul 2014
In reply to RomTheBear:

> Well yes that's a fact, they would lose the right to stay here under current laws.

Ah, so iScotland is going to keep UK immigration policy and legislation? Ee, it's a funny definition of independence.
 Banned User 77 14 Jul 2014
In reply to RomTheBear:

> It's really a shame that we have to vote on Scottish independence before a EU referendum takes place.

> If the UK takes Scotland out of the EU, which looks like an increasingly possible outcome according to the polls, it's unlikely that we will be given another shot at a referendum.

> The worst possible scenario for Scotland would be to have a Tory win at the next GE and an exit of the EU, then I can guarantee you that people here are going to be seriously pissed off.

I don't think its possible at all.. even since the UKIP results industry have come out.. like they have in scotland.. business wants us in the EU.. they will put pressure on workers and we will stay.
 RomTheBear 14 Jul 2014
In reply to IainRUK:

> I don't think its possible at all.. even since the UKIP results industry have come out.. like they have in scotland.. business wants us in the EU.. they will put pressure on workers and we will stay.

Well polls of the past 10 years are certainly proving you wrong. In any case, if there is an EU referendum it's be a very risky gamble.
 RomTheBear 14 Jul 2014
In reply to Sir Chasm:
> Ah, so iScotland is going to keep UK immigration policy and legislation? Ee, it's a funny definition of independence.

The plan in the white paper is to keep current immigration rules after independence, but of course they can always be modified later, if people vote for a Scottish parliament that changes them, but that's not guaranteed.

What sturgeon is pointing out is that if Scotland finds itself out of the EU it's not obvious that they'll be able to retain the right to stay here, it's not a crazy affirmation nor a threat, just common sense.
Post edited at 13:57
 Banned User 77 14 Jul 2014
In reply to RomTheBear:

> Well polls of the past 10 years are certainly proving you wrong. In any case, if there is an EU referendum it's be a very risky gamble.

And as Soar says there won't be one whilst it is a risk…

 RomTheBear 14 Jul 2014
In reply to IainRUK:

> And as Soar says there won't be one whilst it is a risk…

Why do yo think there won't be one ? All is needed is a Tory win at the next GE. Looking at the polls a Tory win seems more and more plausible.
 Sir Chasm 14 Jul 2014
In reply to RomTheBear:

> The plan in the white paper is to keep current immigration rules after independence, but of course they can always be modified later, if people vote for a Scottish parliament that changes them, but that's not guaranteed.

> What sturgeon is pointing out is that if Scotland finds itself out of the EU it's not obvious that they'll be able to retain the right to stay here, it's not a crazy affirmation nor a threat, just common sense.

No rom, merely repeating something doesn't make it true. She didn't say their status wouldn't be obvious, she said “If Scotland was outside ­Europe, they would lose the right to stay here.”
 RomTheBear 14 Jul 2014
In reply to Sir Chasm:
> No rom, merely repeating something doesn't make it true. She didn't say their status wouldn't be obvious, she said “If Scotland was outside ­Europe, they would lose the right to stay here.”

Which is a legal fact ! I am not sure why you don't understand this, new laws would have to be passed for them to regain the right to stay.
Post edited at 14:11
 Sir Chasm 14 Jul 2014
In reply to RomTheBear:

> Which is a legal fact ! I am not sure why you don't understand this, new laws would have to be passed for them to regain the right to stay.

I like your "facts" rom, most amusing. So tell us, if iScotland keeps UK immigration legislation and policy what does that say? Oh yes, it says that EU citizens can come and live and work here. So, iScotland keeps the legislation that says EU citizens can stay, how does it then throw them out?
 RomTheBear 14 Jul 2014
In reply to Sir Chasm:
> I like your "facts" rom, most amusing. So tell us, if iScotland keeps UK immigration legislation and policy what does that say? Oh yes, it says that EU citizens can come and live and work here. So, iScotland keeps the legislation that says EU citizens can stay, how does it then throw them out?

The UK immigration laws allows EU citizens to stay if they are exercising treaty rights. EU immigrants wouldn't be exercising treaty rights if they are staying outside of the EU.
There is no doubt that if Scotland is out of the EU there would be no legal provision left for EU citizens to stay. New laws would have to be passed.
Post edited at 14:20
 Sir Chasm 14 Jul 2014
In reply to RomTheBear:

> The UK immigration laws allows EU citizens to stay if they are exercising treaty rights. EU immigrants wouldn't be exercising treaty rights if they are staying outside of the EU.

Well done rom, so iScotland would need new immigration legislation as soon as it became independent. So iScotland would have to choose whether or not it wanted to keep EU citizens - as I said.
 RomTheBear 14 Jul 2014
In reply to Sir Chasm:
> Well done rom, so iScotland would need new immigration legislation as soon as it became independent. So iScotland would have to choose whether or not it wanted to keep EU citizens - as I said.

Exactly ! But it will need new laws passed by the Scottish parliament, which are not guaranteed to pass depending on which government there is. In the meantime EU citizens would lose the right to stay, that's a fact.

Anyway this is all hypothetical, the most likely outcome is that iScotland would still be in the EU on day one of independence via an internal enlargement, but that's of course only my opinion.
Post edited at 14:39
 Sir Chasm 14 Jul 2014
In reply to RomTheBear:

> Exactly ! But it will need new laws passed by the Scottish parliament, which are not guaranteed to pass depending on which government there is. In the meantime EU citizens would lose the right to stay, that's a fact.

Again with the "facts", you don't think there will have to be legislation made before the date of independence? On anything, let alone EU citizens' status? Or is the first term of a newly independent parliament going to be taken up with writing a legislature?
 Sir Chasm 14 Jul 2014
In reply to RomTheBear:

> Exactly ! But it will need new laws passed by the Scottish parliament, which are not guaranteed to pass depending on which government there is. In the meantime EU citizens would lose the right to stay, that's a fact.

> Anyway this is all hypothetical, the most likely outcome is that iScotland would still be in the EU on day one of independence via an internal enlargement, but that's of course only my opinion.

And to take into account yet another of your edits, yes of course it's hypothetical, because the most likely outcome is a no vote. But of course that's just my opinion.
 RomTheBear 14 Jul 2014
In reply to Sir Chasm:

> Again with the "facts", you don't think there will have to be legislation made before the date of independence? On anything, let alone EU citizens' status? Or is the first term of a newly independent parliament going to be taken up with writing a legislature?

There could be pre-emptive legislation made before independence date whilst they are still within the EU and are convinced that they woudl not be able to rejoin the EU by indy date. But there is no guarantee, again it would have to pass before the parliament.
 RomTheBear 14 Jul 2014
In reply to Sir Chasm:

> And to take into account yet another of your edits, yes of course it's hypothetical, because the most likely outcome is a no vote. But of course that's just my opinion.

Independence is not going to happen, that's a statistical fact But it's an interesting discussion anyway.
 Banned User 77 14 Jul 2014
In reply to RomTheBear:

> Why do yo think there won't be one ? All is needed is a Tory win at the next GE. Looking at the polls a Tory win seems more and more plausible.

Really... Not what the polls say..

And soar is wrong in suggesting the RUK need re admitting... The sovereign integrity won't suddenly dissolve if Scotland leave... We'd never let the opinion of less than 10% of the uk population influence that...


 FreshSlate 14 Jul 2014
In reply to RomTheBear:

> There could be pre-emptive legislation made before independence date whilst they are still within the EU and are convinced that they woudl not be able to rejoin the EU by indy date. But there is no guarantee, again it would have to pass before the parliament.

Sort of how the EU might not be renegotiated before the date of independence. It's just tit for tat this stuff. I don't think "admit us into the EU or we'll throw out your citizens" is the best way to go about things. A lot of threats coming out from the SNP party, default on debt, throw out EU citizens etc.
KevinD 14 Jul 2014
In reply to FreshSlate:
> A lot of threats coming out from the SNP party, default on debt, throw out EU citizens etc.

Nah they aint threats but friendly comments. After all that would be casting fear and doubt and we all know thats what westminster does and not the yes campaign.
 RomTheBear 14 Jul 2014
In reply to IainRUK:

> Really... Not what the polls say..

Well yes Tory win is totally plausible, all they need is a 1.5%-2% swing.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_ge...
 RomTheBear 14 Jul 2014
In reply to FreshSlate:

> Sort of how the EU might not be renegotiated before the date of independence. It's just tit for tat this stuff. I don't think "admit us into the EU or we'll throw out your citizens" is the best way to go about things. A lot of threats coming out from the SNP party, default on debt, throw out EU citizens etc.

But I don't think this is really a threat, the same way that I don't think that when some EU officials pointed out that Scotland might have to reapply it's not a threat but simply pointing out a possibility.
Douglas Griffin 14 Jul 2014
In reply to FreshSlate:

> A lot of threats coming out from the SNP party, default on debt, throw out EU citizens.

Re. the last bit (in bold), since that's what the thread is about: Do you have a quote where they actually do that, or are you (and everyone else) just making this up?

Didn't Sturgeon simply say that if Scotland wasn't admitted to the EU then a lot of people could find themselves losing from one day to the next their continued rights to be here as EU citizens? Not exactly "threatening to throw people out", is it?

 FreshSlate 14 Jul 2014
In reply to RomTheBear:

> But I don't think this is really a threat, the same way that I don't think that when some EU officials pointed out that Scotland might have to reapply it's not a threat but simply pointing out a possibility.

Precisely, tit for tat. Of course it's a threat, the Scottish parliament are more than capable of pushing through a bill to extend or fully grant current residents from the EU stay. It's just a case of whether they want to. You can't pretend their hands are tied, it's their own immigration policy.
 FreshSlate 14 Jul 2014
In reply to Douglas Griffin:
> Didn't Sturgeon simply say that if Scotland wasn't admitted to the EU then a lot of people could find themselves losing from one day to the next their continued rights to be here as EU citizens? Not exactly "threatening to throw people out", is it?

Different words same meaning. If you want to argue the semantics of throwing people out and 'losing their rights to be here' that's up to you. When someone is thrown out of an establishment are they usually physically 'thrown out' or just asked to leave? Perhaps I literally mean that they'll be caber tossed back to the continent, that's clearly what I'm saying. The end result won't be mass deportation because it's an empty threat. They will be granted their rights, whether or not scotland is in the E.U, despite how Sturgeon is trying to portray them, the Scottish are not spiteful people.

Post edited at 17:00
Douglas Griffin 14 Jul 2014
In reply to FreshSlate:

As I thought...
 Banned User 77 14 Jul 2014
In reply to RomTheBear:

Ok I read likely.. not plausible..

It is plausible. But TBH I think we are seeing a coalition.

I think how the minor parties do will be key to who gets in as I don't think either Labour nor the Tory's will get enough to get in alone.

UKIP will be lucky to win any seats though, Euro elections are very different.

But even if Tory's commit to a referendum business will then ramp up promoting the EU.. from Universities to manufacturer's we'll have pro EU arguments pushed at their staff and people will vote for jobs.

 RomTheBear 14 Jul 2014
In reply to FreshSlate:

> Precisely, tit for tat. Of course it's a threat, the Scottish parliament are more than capable of pushing through a bill to extend or fully grant current residents from the EU stay. It's just a case of whether they want to. You can't pretend their hands are tied, it's their own immigration policy.

Exactly it's a case of whether they want to, not a guarantee. Pointing this out is not a threat, just a reality.
 RomTheBear 14 Jul 2014
In reply to IainRUK:
> Ok I read likely.. not plausible..

Definition of likely from wiktionary : "plausible; Within the realm of credibility"
So yes I think an exit of the eu is a likely, or plausible outcome.

> It is plausible. But TBH I think we are seeing a coalition.

> I think how the minor parties do will be key to who gets in as I don't think either Labour nor the Tory's will get enough to get in alone.
> UKIP will be lucky to win any seats though, Euro elections are very different.

Well again look at the polls, they are quite high.

> But even if Tory's commit to a referendum business will then ramp up promoting the EU.. from Universities to manufacturer's we'll have pro EU arguments pushed at their staff and people will vote for jobs.

Since when voters care about what universities and businesses want ?
The average voter reads the sun, the daily mail and other similar tabloids I wouldn't even wipe my arse with.
Post edited at 18:21
In reply to FreshSlate:

> A lot of threats coming out from the SNP party, default on debt, throw out EU citizens etc.

There aren't any threats from the SNP: their policy is to stay in the EU. She is just illustrating why it is silly to believe that the EU would go through the hassle of forcing Scotland out just to re-admit it after a few years.




 RomTheBear 14 Jul 2014
In reply to tom_in_edinburgh:

> There aren't any threats from the SNP: their policy is to stay in the EU. She is just illustrating why it is silly to believe that the EU would go through the hassle of forcing Scotland out just to re-admit it after a few years.

Exactly. And most importantly the EU doesn't give a f*ck about Scotland, they frankly have bigger problems , I don't see why they would want to make everybody's life complicated and become even more unpopular by trying to screw up Scotland for no reason. The whole thing is ridiculous, the only real threat to the EU and EU citizens in Scotland is a referendum in eu membership in 2017. I know many EU immigrant where I live and they are all very well aware of that.
 Banned User 77 14 Jul 2014
In reply to RomTheBear:

No I said you wee right with plausible.. its not Likely…

Since when you get told by the guy who signs your pay check they may cut your job...
 Banned User 77 14 Jul 2014
In reply to RomTheBear:

> Exactly. And most importantly the EU doesn't give a f*ck about Scotland, they frankly have bigger problems , I don't see why they would want to make everybody's life complicated and become even more unpopular by trying to screw up Scotland for no reason. The whole thing is ridiculous, the only real threat to the EU and EU citizens in Scotland is a referendum in eu membership in 2017. I know many EU immigrant where I live and they are all very well aware of that.

A tad unwise..

The EU is all about politics and separatist issues elsewhere become a factor.. hence Spain or others being potentially anti-scottish.

 RomTheBear 14 Jul 2014
In reply to IainRUK:
Do you seriously think that blocking scottish accession to the EU would be a plausible political move in Spain ? If anything it would probably make the separatists' case in Spain even stronger. Not too mention they have ten of thousands of Spanish people living in Scotland...
Post edited at 19:21
 Banned User 77 14 Jul 2014
In reply to RomTheBear:
I think it is unlikely.. but yes it is plausible. I can't see Scotland's application being refused but I don't think it will be straight forwards and countries such as Spain may well like to see their application fail.

Salmond has harmed their chances by going for the £ over the euro… that was politically a bad move, for him, and for Scotland. He showed the chances he is, but he also bit the hand which he wants to feed Scotland..

There's no direct comparison to be made from the past.. issues like if Scotland can retain the RUK's opt out status will need to be argued.. Thats where the uncertainties lie. I think had all this been outlined pre referendum a yes vote would be much more likely. I know the SNP want it to be just a simple idealistic vote (should Scotland be independent) but few people think so idealistically..

Even kids.. Those who are 16-18 who polled are still coming out in support of the UK remaining intact.
Post edited at 19:26
 RomTheBear 14 Jul 2014
In reply to IainRUK:
> I think it is unlikely.. but yes it is plausible. I can't see Scotland's application being refused but I don't think it will be straight forwards and countries such as Spain may well like to see their application fail.

Then you have to balance that with the likeliness of the uk pulling out the EU. So far I think most people here think that they are more likely to get out of the eu through an uk wide referendum than because of being refused entry or continued membership.
Post edited at 19:37
 Sir Chasm 14 Jul 2014
In reply to RomTheBear:

> Do you seriously think that blocking scottish accession to the EU would be a plausible political move in Spain ? If anything it would probably make the separatists' case in Spain even stronger. Not too mention they have ten of thousands of Spanish people living in Scotland...

It's not a case of blocking it, EU members need do nothing so crass, all Spain (for example) needs to do is ensure that iScotland goes through the same joining process as any other new entrant. As you say, the EU doesn't care about iScotland, so why should they tinker with EU entry for them? What's the benefit?
 Banned User 77 14 Jul 2014
In reply to RomTheBear:

> Then you have to balance that with the likeliness of the uk pulling out the EU. So far I think most people here think that they are more likely to get out of the eu through an uk wide referendum than because of being refused entry or continued membership.

We'll see.. I think that's not true.. most Scots may think that, well those pro-independence.

I think there's a cat in hells chance.

But if the UK is to leave it will be because the UK vote for it.. no outside influence.. for Scotland it will be in other countries hands.

I just can't see the UK leaving Europe.. like I can't see Scotland leaving the UK, slowly business comes out in support of stability.. leaving the EU will be a much greater cause of instability for the UK than Scotland going independent too.. we'd lose trading partners overnight, we'd lose immigrant workers.

Already Japanese and US companies are pressuring the UK workers.
In reply to IainRUK:

> A tad unwise..

> The EU is all about politics and separatist issues elsewhere become a factor.. hence Spain or others being potentially anti-scottish.

Didn't the Spanish foreign minister already say something along the lines of that it was a different situation from Catalonia and if the UK were OK with Scotland splitting off then it was none of Spain's business?

Suppose there were two countries out of the 28 who cared enough to block Scotland in order to make a domestic political point. First, they are acting against the EU treaties which say they have to negotiate in good faith with a view to coming to a compromise. Second, they are causing unnecessary hassle to the other 26 members that have citizens and businesses with ties to Scotland and in a 26-2 situation there is going to be arm twisting to accept the consensus. Third, when Scotland gets back in again a couple of years later it will have a vote on all the issues that are actually important to the two countries that blocked it.
 Banned User 77 14 Jul 2014
In reply to tom_in_edinburgh:
They've said a lot… but Spain do have a history of voting in such a way..

Cyrpus, Greece, Slovakia and Spain have all refused to recognise Kosovo.. so I think quite clearly in that situation they are acting against the good faith treaties…

As said, I think Scotland will get to rejoin but it won't get an easy ride and the knocking of the euro was pretty incredulous in that regard…

Its a tough call if Scotland will retain the RUK's right to its own currency.. especially as it doesn't have its own currency.. I think Salmond should have stuck to his views about the £ being a stone around the neck… rather than jumping off when things went rocky..

And I'm not comparing Scotland with Kosovo at all.. I'm just saying Spain does act in its own interests.. or what it perceives as such..
Post edited at 20:08
 RomTheBear 14 Jul 2014
In reply to IainRUK:
> And I'm not comparing Scotland with Kosovo at all.. I'm just saying Spain does act in its own interests.. or what it perceives as such..

So Spain own interest is to f*ck in the arse tens of thousands of their own people living in Scotland, block their fishing boats from accessing Scottish waters, provoke their separatists, risk a British boycott of Spain as a holiday destination, and isolate themselves in Europe ?

Well as much as I dislike Rajoy I don't think he is THAT stupid.
Post edited at 20:19
 Banned User 77 14 Jul 2014
In reply to RomTheBear:
Well this is what they did with Kosovo…

Why do you think they f*cked them?

You can be as angry and threatening as you want, but yes Spain refuse to recognise a country recognised by most of the EU….

And you are having a laugh if the rest of the UK would give a flying fuck if Scotland was blocked by Spain or not in regards if they go to Benidorm or not…

That really is one of your more idiotic statement?

You seriously think some lager lout from Birmingham going on an 18-30 holiday to Majorca or Benidorm gives a toss about Scotland and the EU….
Post edited at 20:49
In reply to RomTheBear:

Why would British people care about Spain blocking Scottish EU membership?
In reply to girlymonkey:

Why do people assume that an independent Scotland will be given preferential membership conditions over other new member countries?

Is it because Scotland is not a new EU "population", so it would just be a change of label from a subset of the UK to an independent group?

Because it seems to me that there are very clear cut rules for new countries joining the EU and Scotland isn't planning on meeting all those requirements.

Serious question, I'm not trying to rabble-rouse. If you have links to facts and figures that would be a plus. I understand that there are multiple possible outcomes.
 Banned User 77 14 Jul 2014
In reply to Bob_the_Builder:

The £/euro was strange..

That's something which should have been clarified before they debated the currency.. there is no point asking for a shared currency, and then having the EU say that they are a new state an would need to accept the euro..

I can't see why they can't get advice asap or if they will retain the RUK's right to opt out of the currency. If the EU say no, they have no choice but to ready themselves for joining the euro..

Which I know there are issues with that as well, but I think the EU would make exceptions to get Scotland into the Euro, even without their own currency.. or maybe they all have to have their own currency for x number of years but that seems like a senseless step to make if the ultimate aim is the euro..
In reply to IainRUK:

Yes, the two points which I'm unsure about are the currency issue and the requirement to sign the Schengen Agreement. If that is a requirement does that not disallow an open border with the rest of the UK?
 Banned User 77 14 Jul 2014
In reply to Bob_the_Builder:
I'm not sure, but Switzerland isn't Schengen and you can drive/train over the border simply enough.. I think they can sporadically close the border but generally it is an open border with the rest of europe.
Post edited at 21:51
 Bruce Hooker 14 Jul 2014
In reply to RomTheBear:

> Well under the current immigration law if we exit the EU then most EU immigrants in the UK will have to leave, that's a fact.

I don't think it's a "fact" at all, any more than I would suddenly be obliged to leave France... All this is just Nationalist scaremongering, if not the threat to kick all those foreigners out sounds very much like Nationalism with a very big "N" and there was me half convinced by your arguments that Scottish Nationalists are not like other Nationalists!
In reply to IainRUK:

But to have the option of closing the border they have to have border crossing stations at every road/track crossing the border. Or just close all but the major roads crossing the border. Similar to the Ireland border I suppose?
 Banned User 77 14 Jul 2014
In reply to Bob_the_Builder:

Reading about it Switzerland is de facto considered part of the schengen.. but yeah there are border posts on the main roads between many EU countries for smuggling checks anyway.. we got stopped driving to Denmark due to alcohol.
In reply to IainRUK:

You filthy boozer. =P

On the train from Switzerland to Germany the German immigration chappies search all through an obnoxious American's bags because he was being rude and talking on the phone. They didn't even ask for my passport because I was pretending to take a nap.
 RomTheBear 14 Jul 2014
In reply to Bruce Hooker:
> I don't think it's a "fact" at all, any more than I would suddenly be obliged to leave France... All this is just Nationalist scaremongering, if not the threat to kick all those foreigners out sounds very much like Nationalism with a very big "N" and there was me half convinced by your arguments that Scottish Nationalists are not like other Nationalists!

Well you should read up about immigration laws and then you might change your mind, if the uk gets out of they chances are you'll have to become French or be married to a French to be allowed to stay.
Post edited at 22:10
 Banned User 77 14 Jul 2014
In reply to Bob_the_Builder:

I think I must have slept through.. I took a night train from Germany to Basel.. you then went from a German train station in Basel to a Swiss station a few miles away..
 RomTheBear 14 Jul 2014
In reply to IainRUK:

The last GE poll came out. The Tories are now one point ahead of labour. Still convinced that this eu referendum is never going to happen ?
 Banned User 77 14 Jul 2014
In reply to RomTheBear:

I never said that.. I just said it won't until the result will be a foregone conclusion…

 RomTheBear 14 Jul 2014
In reply to IainRUK:

If the Tories are elected, there will be one within three years. Are you sure that the opinion which has been for leaving the eu for the past ten years will change suddenly ?
 Bruce Hooker 14 Jul 2014
In reply to RomTheBear:

> Well you should read up about immigration laws and then you might change your mind, if the uk gets out of they chances are you'll have to become French or be married to a French to be allowed to stay.

More Nationalist scaremongering... and funny for someone who is himself a Frenchman not to be aware enough of the speed of reaction of his own country's bureaucracy! I'll be long dead before they ever got round to worrying about me... if they did, chances are they would let anyone stay who'd been in France for a while, what would they have to gain by being little nazis? They wouldn't want half a million of so French back from Britain to boost their unemployment figures!

Really what kind of nutter started this silly bit of spin rolling?
 Banned User 77 14 Jul 2014
In reply to RomTheBear:
Absolutely convinced…

And if that was under threat even the tories wouldn't go for it.. noone wants to be the PM who takes the UK out of Europe.. we'd be finished as a nation overnight…

I do admire your confidence in election pledges..

Obviously biased but here's a list to previous broken pledges..

http://cameron-cloggysmoralcompass.blogspot.com/p/economy.html

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2609976/Senior-Conservatives-abando...
Post edited at 22:30
 RomTheBear 14 Jul 2014
In reply to Bruce Hooker:

> More Nationalist scaremongering... and funny for someone who is himself a Frenchman not to be aware enough of the speed of reaction of his own country's bureaucracy! I'll be long dead before they ever got round to worrying about me... if they did, chances are they would let anyone stay who'd been in France for a while, what would they have to gain by being little nazis? They wouldn't want half a million of so French back from Britain to boost their unemployment figures!

Well the fact is that if the UK leaves the eu British citizens leaving in ither eu countries will be in a legal limbo unless new laws are voted.

 RomTheBear 14 Jul 2014
In reply to IainRUK:
> Absolutely convinced…

> And if that was under threat even the tories wouldn't go for it.. noone wants to be the PM who takes the UK out of Europe.. we'd be finished as a nation overnight…

> I do admire your confidence in election pledges..

That's more than a pledge, it will be enshrined in law before the ge, and if there is no referendum the backbencher will tear the Tory party.

It's pretty obvious that if the Tories are elected, there will be a referendum, no way around it.
I admire your optimism but at some point you have to admit reality, an eu referendum is becoming more and more likely
Post edited at 22:39
 Banned User 77 14 Jul 2014
In reply to RomTheBear:

People said that in 2009….

But I think Labour would be more likely to win if Cameron does legally bind it, as then they can repeal the bill, but i'm not convinced it will happen.. its been blocked once, I thought it was still up in the air?
 Dave Garnett 14 Jul 2014
In reply to RomTheBear:

>
> Definition of likely from wiktionary : "plausible; Within the realm of credibility"
>

Try a decent dictionary:
"Likely - such as well might happen or be true, probable."

There's a world of difference between plausible and probable.
 Bruce Hooker 14 Jul 2014
In reply to RomTheBear:

> Well the fact is that if the UK leaves the eu British citizens leaving in ither eu countries will be in a legal limbo unless new laws are voted.

That's already a somewhat different way of presenting the question!
 Bruce Hooker 14 Jul 2014
In reply to RomTheBear:

> That's more than a pledge, it will be enshrined in law before the ge,

The whole point of the British Parliamentary system is that nothing is "cast iron", there is no written Constitution and at any time any law can be changed. It's the beauty of the system IMO.
 Banned User 77 14 Jul 2014
In reply to Bruce Hooker:

We'd have a massive legal limbo.. plus a labour crisis…

It would be logistically a nightmare. Already the immigration service has huge issues and backlogs with visa problems.. if we suddenly left the EU we'd have to ask for those millions to leave or go through the visa process..

The system just could not cope.
 Dr.S at work 14 Jul 2014
In reply to tom_in_edinburgh:

> Didn't the Spanish foreign minister already say something along the lines of that it was a different situation from Catalonia and if the UK were OK with Scotland splitting off then it was none of Spain's business?

tricky for Spain - hard to say the referendum is not legit, rude to the UK and Scotland, but do not want to give succor to the Catalans...
 RomTheBear 15 Jul 2014
In reply to Dave Garnett:
> Try a decent dictionary:

> "Likely - such as well might happen or be true, probable."

> There's a world of difference between plausible and probable.

Well call it whatever you want, plausible, probable, or likely, there is a significant chance that we'll have an EU referendum at some point within the next 10 years, I don't really understand why some here seem to think its best to ignore it.

To say that it's a reason or not to vote for independence I am not sure but clearly that demolishes the argument that staying in the UK gives us any guarantee to stay within the EU.
Post edited at 00:57
 RomTheBear 15 Jul 2014
In reply to Bruce Hooker:

> The whole point of the British Parliamentary system is that nothing is "cast iron", there is no written Constitution and at any time any law can be changed. It's the beauty of the system IMO.

It's not about the law anyway, it's about the Tory party clearly splitting if they are elected and don't hold a referendum.
 RomTheBear 15 Jul 2014
In reply to IainRUK:

> People said that in 2009….

> But I think Labour would be more likely to win if Cameron does legally bind it, as then they can repeal the bill, but i'm not convinced it will happen.. its been blocked once, I thought it was still up in the air?

Yeah the Lib Dem blocked it, but now Cameron wants (or so he says) to use the Parliament Act to force it on to the statute books. We'll see.
 Banned User 77 15 Jul 2014
In reply to Dr.S at work:
Yeah, I think there is no chance the referendum can be claimed illegit…

But Spain did go against Kosovo.

I think Spain are facing an uphill battle with the Catalans and know it…

TBH I hate veto's they destroy the democratic process and an appalling legacy in the UN, supposedly there to protect and encourage democracy..
Post edited at 02:04
 FreshSlate 15 Jul 2014
In reply to tom_in_edinburgh:
> There aren't any threats from the SNP: their policy is to stay in the EU. She is just illustrating why it is silly to believe that the EU would go through the hassle of forcing Scotland out just to re-admit it after a few years.

She said "If Scotland was outside ­Europe, they would lose the right to stay here."

That's fairly clear. There's the A) If Europe doesn't admit Scotland... and B) the consequence.

She's not using anything like what normally dictates decisions such as these. Example of prior cases, and pointing to the relevant legislation. Instead it's 'illustrating the consequences of their decision', or if you like, veiled threats.
Post edited at 02:52
 Banned User 77 15 Jul 2014
In reply to FreshSlate:

There's actually few comparisons..

Also no state has ever left the EU..

Probably the closest is Greenland.
 Bruce Hooker 15 Jul 2014
In reply to IainRUK:

> The system just could not cope.

It would probably cope as it does now with illegal immigrants, that is doing nothing

It's the same in most countries, once you're in and until you break the law or need a paper of some sort the law doesn't come looking for you, this whole story is clearly just a bit of SNP spin - don't forget that all EU residents in Scotland can vote in the referendum... It's so fishy I can smell it from Sussex!
 Bruce Hooker 15 Jul 2014
In reply to RomTheBear:

> I don't really understand why some here seem to think its best to ignore it.

Perhaps because we know Britain better than you do? Your problem is you're such a Cartesian, you think things follow logic... Not you're fault, French education
 RomTheBear 15 Jul 2014
In reply to Bruce Hooker:
> Perhaps because we know Britain better than you do? Your problem is you're such a Cartesian, you think things follow logic... Not you're fault, French education

Says the guy who lives in France ... I spent all my adult life in the UK so I think I can claim to know this country a bit...
And I am not the only one to think that an EU referendum is genuine a threat, actually many people up here do.

Anyway Britain or not, I don't really see the point of slapping logic in the face.

Many you don't know Scotland as well as I do ?
Post edited at 09:13
 Bruce Hooker 15 Jul 2014
In reply to RomTheBear:

> Anyway Britain or not, I don't really see the point of slapping logic in the face.

And yet in Britain they do it every day... in France too mind.
 RomTheBear 15 Jul 2014
In reply to Bruce Hooker:

> And yet in Britain they do it every day... in France too mind.

Well yes, no difference there.
In reply to FreshSlate:

> She said "If Scotland was outside ­Europe, they would lose the right to stay here."

They have the right to stay in Scotland because Scotland is in the EU and they are EU citizens. If Scotland was not in the EU then obviously that basis for staying in Scotland disappears. She is not making a threat she is simply stating one of the many undesirable and inconvenient consequences of Scotland no longer being in the EU in order to illustrate why it is unlikely that the EU would ask Scotland to leave.


 Sir Chasm 15 Jul 2014
In reply to tom_in_edinburgh:

> They have the right to stay in Scotland because Scotland is in the EU and they are EU citizens. If Scotland was not in the EU then obviously that basis for staying in Scotland disappears. She is not making a threat she is simply stating one of the many undesirable and inconvenient consequences of Scotland no longer being in the EU in order to illustrate why it is unlikely that the EU would ask Scotland to leave.

Whether an iScotland outside the EU wanted to keep or remove EU citizens would be a matter for iScotland. It would be an independent country (remember that idea?) and could have whatever policy it likes in respect of who it has to stay.
And it wouldn't be the EU asking iScotland to leave, iScotland isn't an EU member.
 RomTheBear 15 Jul 2014
In reply to Sir Chasm:
> Whether an iScotland outside the EU wanted to keep or remove EU citizens would be a matter for iScotland. It would be an independent country (remember that idea?) and could have whatever policy it likes in respect of who it has to stay.

Exactly, that's why it cannot be guaranteed that EU citizens will be allowed to stay if iScotland finds itself out of the EU, it will depend on the parliament of iScotland that will be elected then to take that decision.
Post edited at 09:59
 Sir Chasm 15 Jul 2014
In reply to RomTheBear:

> Exactly, that's why it cannot be guaranteed that EU citizens will be allowed to stay if iScotland finds itself out of the EU, it will depend on the parliament that will be elected then.

So they may or may not have a right to reside?
 RomTheBear 15 Jul 2014
In reply to Sir Chasm:
> So they may or may not have a right to reside?

Yes, by default they wouldn't be allowed to stay, unless a Scottish Parliament of iScotland decide to give them some kind of indefinite leave to remain or give them the option to naturalise as Scottish citizens...
I think it would be a likely outcome at least for EU immigrants with permanent residency, I don't know about the rest.
Post edited at 10:07
 Sir Chasm 15 Jul 2014
In reply to RomTheBear:

> Yes, by default they wouldn't be allowed to stay, unless a Scottish Parliament of iScotland decide to give them some kind of indefinite leave to remain or give them the option to naturalise as Scottish citizens...

> I think it would be a likely outcome at least for EU immigrants with permanent residency, I don't know about the rest.

That's ok, just checking we're clear on the difference between "may" and "would" -“If Scotland was outside ­Europe, they would lose the right to stay here.”

And I know you don't know, nobody does.
 Brev 15 Jul 2014
In reply to girlymonkey:

As an EU citizen living in Scotland I can't say that the whole debate about whether Scotland would be in/out the EU influences my vote in September. As I see it, if we vote yes in September there's a chance we'll be out of the EU and I may or may not have to apply for a visa to stay here. If we vote no in September, there's the chance that a UK-wide referendum will lead to the UK leaving the EU, which means I may or may not have to apply for a visa to stay here. In both cases there is of course also the chance that an independent Scotland or a non-independent Scotland as part of the UK would (continue to) be part of the EU, and life goes on as normal.
 RomTheBear 15 Jul 2014
In reply to Brev:

> As an EU citizen living in Scotland I can't say that the whole debate about whether Scotland would be in/out the EU influences my vote in September. As I see it, if we vote yes in September there's a chance we'll be out of the EU and I may or may not have to apply for a visa to stay here. If we vote no in September, there's the chance that a UK-wide referendum will lead to the UK leaving the EU, which means I may or may not have to apply for a visa to stay here. In both cases there is of course also the chance that an independent Scotland or a non-independent Scotland as part of the UK would (continue to) be part of the EU, and life goes on as normal.

I feel the same way. Uncertainty whatever we do. Great
 Banned User 77 15 Jul 2014
In reply to RomTheBear:
> Yes, by default they wouldn't be allowed to stay, unless a Scottish Parliament of iScotland decide to give them some kind of indefinite leave to remain or give them the option to naturalise as Scottish citizens...

> I think it would be a likely outcome at least for EU immigrants with permanent residency, I don't know about the rest.

That would just be an incredible work load..

I'm currently going through immigration in the US.. the back logs are huge.

I'm in touch with a girl from Germany who moved here at the same time, we both interviewed in Frankfurt on the same day for the same visa track, we both got a letter yesterday saying we were being waived an interview but would have a 6 month wait.. It'll be 15-16 months its taken just to get residency… in the mean time I can't accept any long term job positions…

I'm going to be doing substitute teaching, hopefully some adjunct lecturing, but if I didn't have my missus here I'd be back in Europe...

That would happen in Scotland.. you'd have to offer temporary visa's while processing.. people will just piss off.. and they'd have to pay the costs.. user pays..
Post edited at 13:25
 RomTheBear 15 Jul 2014
In reply to IainRUK:
> That would just be an incredible work load..
.
Currently the process to get permanent residency as an EU citizen in the UK already takes more than 6 months (in total violation of the EU directive, I should point out), and requires loads of paperwork and evidence.

People started applying for those en masse recently because of the threat of an EU referendum, as a result the home office introduced a fee for the process...
Post edited at 13:47
 FreshSlate 15 Jul 2014
In reply to RomTheBear:

It won't be any quicker for iScotland if they lose their right to stay...
 FreshSlate 15 Jul 2014
In reply to tom_in_edinburgh:

> They have the right to stay in Scotland because Scotland is in the EU and they are EU citizens. If Scotland was not in the EU then obviously that basis for staying in Scotland disappears. She is not making a threat she is simply stating one of the many undesirable and inconvenient consequences of Scotland no longer being in the EU in order to illustrate why it is unlikely that the EU would ask Scotland to leave.

We're just going to go round and round now I think. You can spin what she has said either way. However, pointing out consequences that are within your control can be construed as a threat. Or we can call it merely illustrating... I think others have called it scaremongering is that any closer for you?
 RomTheBear 15 Jul 2014
In reply to FreshSlate:

> It won't be any quicker for iScotland if they lose their right to stay...

Probably not !
 FreshSlate 15 Jul 2014
In reply to RomTheBear:
Wouldn't it be better to reassure the EU citizens who are living in Scotland? Perhaps it would represent a clear difference between the yes or no camp, there's the possibility of the referendum for the U.K and Sturgeon has come out and directly said that they would lose their right to say in the event of having to apply for the E.U. As moondancer said either way, his residency is at risk.
Post edited at 14:54
 RomTheBear 15 Jul 2014
In reply to FreshSlate:

> Wouldn't it be better to reassure the EU citizens who are living in Scotland? Perhaps it would represent a clear difference between the yes or no camp, there's the possibility of the referendum for the U.K and Sturgeon has come out and directly said that they would lose their right to say in the event of having to apply for the E.U. As moondancer said either way, his residency is at risk.

Well even though I don't agree with the specific wording she used if you listen to the whole interview it's pretty clear that what she meant was that it would make total sense for other EU countries who have some of their people living in Scotland to keep Scotland in the EU.
And in general the SNP is very pro-EU but whether a future out of EU iScotland government would accept to have EU immigrants staying in the Scotland without any form of reciprocity is pretty uncertain.

So yes as we said before there is uncertainty looming for all EU immigrants living in all over the UK at the moment, which is why we have seen an increase in the number of them asking for permanent residency, citizenship and so on...
 FreshSlate 15 Jul 2014
In reply to RomTheBear:

> And in general the SNP is very pro-EU but whether a future out of EU iScotland government would accept to have EU immigrants staying in the Scotland without any form of reciprocity is pretty uncertain.

I think they're useful to Scotland these EU citizens, I don't see it as Scotland doing the EU a favour. Every country would be in the EU if we used 'Are there EU citizens there?' as a metric. The EU may want certain things from Scotland like shared use of currency, certain amount of contributions etc. This all needs to be negotiated, the fact that Scotland has some EU citizens living there doesn't mean that it will be admitted into the EU without some concessions.
 RomTheBear 15 Jul 2014
In reply to FreshSlate:

> This all needs to be negotiated, the fact that Scotland has some EU citizens living there doesn't mean that it will be admitted into the EU without some concessions.

Ho yes of course not I am not saying that, but that definitely plays a role, government are going to try to minimise the impact on their citizens and businesses if possible.
 Jim Fraser 15 Jul 2014
In reply to Bruce Hooker:

> The whole point of the British Parliamentary system is that nothing is "cast iron", there is no written Constitution and at any time any law can be changed. It's ...

> .... the beauty of the system IMO.


I take back all the nice things I said about you Bruce.

You're a nutter.
 Bruce Hooker 15 Jul 2014
In reply to Jim Fraser:

> I take back all the nice things I said about you Bruce.

I don't recall to many of them! I do recall that you want a written constitution though, no faith in the people of Britain to vote the right way then?

But look at reality, even countries with written constitution have mechanisms for adjusting them, nothing can be "set in iron" as the world changes and countries need to change with it... which is why a Parliamentary system in which Parliament has the right to change laws as and when the electorate votes for this is the best way IMO.
 Jim Fraser 16 Jul 2014
In reply to Bruce Hooker:

One of the things we can respect France for is its ability to re-invent itself constitutionally when necessary. And one of the things people often despise the USA for is its inability to re-invent itself constitutionally. Between those two is a range of constitutional regimes that are more adaptable than the USA and more durable than France. That is where I'd like us to be placed.
 GrahamD 21 Jul 2014
In reply to Jim Fraser:

The irony of quoting 'amendments' as if they were something fundamental to the constitution seems to escape many Americans.
 Banned User 77 21 Jul 2014
In reply to Jim Fraser:

Its a hugely diverse country though.. within states things change much easier but trying to get the TX's to agree with NY's is a big ask..

Its actually pretty impressive how big, diverse yet united the country is in general. It's 5-10 times bigger in terms of population and land area respectively..

But things like gun laws annoy me, and they won't change any time soon.. the NE/NW may support change, the south wouldn't so it won't happen.
 RomTheBear 23 Jul 2014
In reply to Bruce Hooker:

> I don't recall to many of them! I do recall that you want a written constitution though, no faith in the people of Britain to vote the right way then?

> But look at reality, even countries with written constitution have mechanisms for adjusting them, nothing can be "set in iron" as the world changes and countries need to change with it... which is why a Parliamentary system in which Parliament has the right to change laws as and when the electorate votes for this is the best way IMO.

Did it occur to you that sometimes parliaments vote laws without the consent of the people or any form of popular support ? At least with a written constitution this kind of things cannot be done under the radar like it is now.
I don't know if you have noticed but in the past ten years freedom of speech and right to privacy have been almost totally wiped out by laws that were passed without anybody really noticing. And with the uk now pressing to get us out of the European humans right convention this is not going to get any better.
 Banned User 77 23 Jul 2014
In reply to RomTheBear:

> And with the uk now pressing to get us out of the European humans right convention this is not going to get any better.

I do think you are overplaying this.. I think the fact there was no referendum illustrates the actual desire higher up. As you say with the laws being passed on the sly, we don't have that much say on certain things, and leaving Europe will be one of those things that won't be allowed to happen.
 RomTheBear 23 Jul 2014
In reply to IainRUK:
> I do think you are overplaying this.. I think the fact there was no referendum illustrates the actual desire higher up. As you say with the laws being passed on the sly, we don't have that much say on certain things, and leaving Europe will be one of those things that won't be allowed to happen.

I think there will be a referendum if having one is the only way for some to stay in power.
I do think we should have an eu referendum anyway but having after the Scottish referendum is a problem.
This is a different issue though, but I do think that not having a written constitution allows for a slow erosion of human rights and individual freedom.
And in more practical terms it's a also technical nightmare for lawyers and the courts.
Post edited at 16:10
 Banned User 77 23 Jul 2014
In reply to RomTheBear:

I'm not so sure.. there are plenty of countries with written constitutions with a lot less freedom..

Words get changed, corrupted. The UK's is a very living constitution.

We are, despite what people think, a fairly liberal society on the world stage.
 RomTheBear 23 Jul 2014
In reply to IainRUK:

> I'm not so sure.. there are plenty of countries with written constitutions with a lot less freedom..
> Words get changed, corrupted. The UK's is a very living constitution.

> We are, despite what people think, a fairly liberal society on the world stage.

Indeed, we are, but I don't think that currently the trend is to increase freedoms, and we have very little in a way of protecting them.
 Banned User 77 23 Jul 2014
In reply to RomTheBear:

I'm not sure.. on a grand scale; racism, gay marriage, adoption, sexual equality.. reducing gender pay gaps, we have made strides.

The internet has caused issues and so has terrorism.. the law struggles with these issues.

I was just reading then of a girl U18 being charged with distributing indecent images of a child, she'd sent a topless selfie to her bloke, they split and he sent it on to his mates. Both have been cautioned but could have been on the sex offenders register..

There's things like that which we are just so clumsy with and the law is a bit of a hammer cracking a nut.

 RomTheBear 23 Jul 2014
In reply to IainRUK:

> I'm not sure.. on a grand scale; racism, gay marriage, adoption, sexual equality.. reducing gender pay gaps, we have made strides.

> The internet has caused issues and so has terrorism.. the law struggles with these issues.

> I was just reading then of a girl U18 being charged with distributing indecent images of a child, she'd sent a topless selfie to her bloke, they split and he sent it on to his mates. Both have been cautioned but could have been on the sex offenders register..

> There's things like that which we are just so clumsy with and the law is a bit of a hammer cracking a nut.

Well have a look at the digital communication act and you'll see why something like that in the wrong hands could be a disaster... Personally I don't necessarily trust government to always do the right thing with these laws.

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