In reply to Wilbur:
I've been watching this thread with interest (and hoping for some additional replies) as I am facing the same conundrum deciding how to run the Cardiff half in 3 weeks time and our paces are more or less identical.
I was kind of hoping that someone would post a slightly more conservative strategy as what Ian and Nick are suggesting seems to me to be quite high risk / high reward, and very likely to be an utter painfest (that may or may not be sustainable).
Based on a Xmas 10km time (43:30) McMillan thinks I should be doing a half in 1:37 (7:24 m/m). Now, while I think I am much more running fit than when I did that 10km, 7:24 for 13 miles sounds sounds awfully quick to me. In addition, I really, really want to get a sub 1:40 time (1:39:59 equates to 7:38 pace) as this would give me a massive PB anyway as I have not done a half seriously before(current PB = 1:53, run in training, off-road, with 400m/1200ft of ascent).
So, who wants to convince me that, while being a lion is all well and good, a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush? Or is the consensus that I should risk all, leave the watch at home and hope i dont have to say 'well I ran the first 10 miles at 1:37 pace!'.