UKC

A few years ago someone introduced to me the concept of risk assessment in outdoor activity in a very simple way as 'The 3 Lemons' principle. It comes from the gambling world where on a slot machine the appearance of the 3 lemons means LOSER!
So when we are involved in an outdoor adventure we look for the Lemons and make sure we don't get to 3.
A first lemon might be that we forget to get a weather forecast, the second might be that we discover that we have failed to pack any waterproofs. At this point a storm looms and we must make the decision if we want to continue and risk the third lemon.
What I like about it is that it is subjective rather than prescriptive. For some people no waterproofs & a storm is uncomfortable but OK and they would continue but for others it isn't and retreat is the order of the day.
Does anyone out there know more about this idea and indeed whether I have got it right?

In reply to keith-ratcliffe:

I've heard this before but not as 3 lemons exactly but just when you have a bunch of lemons things go really sour...
A lemon is acquired for each problem... e.g. no waterproof, feeling I'll, no compass, etc.

In reply to keith-ratcliffe:

It's always good to have lemons when you have gin in your rucksack

In reply to keith-ratcliffe:

I always applied this to flying. My '3 strikes' rule.
There's always rules and regulations that will ground you but one day I took off, the weather was borderline, I had one dodgy passenger (alcohol) and then one of my fuel pumps went u/s. None of them were enough to put down on the ground but dealing with all 3 at the same time could've proved problematic if a real emergency cropped up.
So when the working day had finished, I reassessed things and always applied my 3 strikes and we're on the ground, rule.

In reply to keith-ratcliffe:

The outdoor lemon can be furthered to emergency rations.
(although when I heard it first it was a stinky cheese)

Leader: Take a lemon as emergency food.
Student: Why would you do that?
Leader: Because you will not be tempted to eat it during the day, but in a real emergency,if there is nothing else you will eat it.

In reply to keith-ratcliffe:

Doesn't really work if the first lemon is the one that kills you though.