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Stocks and Shares ISA

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 mypyrex 09 Oct 2014
I've got a bit of money put away in S & S ISAs. I know that the value of stocks and shares can fluctuate(mine have dropped by about 3% in the last month) and I can see this when I go online to see what the valuations are.

This is purely out of interest but is there any way of identifying what is causing the fluctuations at any one time? Just curious.
 JM 09 Oct 2014
In reply to mypyrex:

Just checked mine and they are well down as well below my initial capital. Must be some kind of market uncertainty driving share prices down. Lots of managed funds of low to medium risk contain the same share options (e.g. Royal Dutch Shell, British and American Tobacco). If the share prices of a few of these drop for whatever reason it effects the whole portfolio. Mine was increasing at 3-5% last year which I considered pretty okay especially considering interest rates but has stagnated this year and now decreasing. Just have to sit it out. No doubt someone will be along soon to tell you that if you are worried about it you shouldn't invest in a S+S isa.
 psaunders 09 Oct 2014
In reply to mypyrex:
The recent decline has been driven by numerous events in finance and global politics. These include worries over Russia's involvement in Ukraine and the following EU / US sanctions, western involvement in Syria and Iraq, bad results out of France and Germany, protests in Hong Kong, the decline of Tesco and Sainsbury's... it's just been a very bad few months both globally and (to a slightly lesser extent) domestically.
Post edited at 12:08
 Postmanpat 09 Oct 2014
In reply to mypyrex:

> This is purely out of interest but is there any way of identifying what is causing the fluctuations at any one time? Just curious.

There is a whole industry dedicated to understanding this and forecasting it. Most stocks will go up and down generally at the same time as the market.

The market will move on a combination of economic conditions and forecasts, interest rates, earnings outlook, political, geopolitical outlook etc etc. Individual stocks will move on the back of all the above but also their individual earnings outlook, strategic announcement, industry conditions etc etc.

Cynics will argue it's a "random walk" which, short term, to some extent it is. But in the long term their is a logic to share price movements.

So the short answer to your question is "no", but you can get a clue by reading the financial press every day.
 Mick r 09 Oct 2014
In reply to mypyrex:

you gonna have to tell us what you have invested in to provide a reasoned response, but yeah most markets are down the last month or so.
 Fraser 09 Oct 2014
In reply to mypyrex:

> This is purely out of interest but is there any way of identifying what is causing the fluctuations at any one time?

Conventional wisdom says: fear & greed.

OP mypyrex 09 Oct 2014
In reply to JM:
> Just checked mine and they are well down as well below my initial capital.

Similar to mine. About mid August I thought they were on the up but looking at them this morning they're heading south again
Still, as my IFA keeps saying, "Sit tight"
Post edited at 12:12
 BnB 09 Oct 2014
In reply to Fraser:

> Conventional wisdom says: fear & greed.

Or in this case the threat of war on the ground in the Middle East coupled with a threat of contagion from an epidemic in West Africa.
 Postmanpat 09 Oct 2014
In reply to BnB:
> Or in this case the threat of war on the ground in the Middle East coupled with a threat of contagion from an epidemic in West Africa.

Not really. There's seldom one cause but after seven years of very low interest rates and quantitive easing pumping money into the system (some of which is used to buy stocks) things are changing. QE in the US is coming to an end and the markets are anticipating US interest rates will rise next year (although the Fed yesterday indicated no rise is imminent).

This has been negative for equities.
Post edited at 12:48
 David Lanceley 09 Oct 2014
In reply to mypyrex:

I'm sad enough to monitor this stuff. On the basis of my own holdings, fairly substantial across a range of countries / funds / shares, 2014 year to date is up 7.86%. From 01 September down 1.72%

Last year was up 20.81%

Set up a spreadsheet and enter the fund / stock values on a regular (say twice a week) basis and you will soon have a good picture of where you're going.
OP mypyrex 09 Oct 2014
In reply to David Lanceley:



> Set up a spreadsheet and enter the fund / stock values on a regular (say twice a week) basis and you will soon have a good picture of where you're going.

Just started doing that

 Philip 09 Oct 2014
In reply to mypyrex:

I think people might have misunderstood your question. Are you talking of a S&S ISA that invests in specific stocks or one that buys units in a fund?

If the latter are you asking whether you can see what trades by that fund have caused the rise or fall? I'm not sure that information is public.
 David Lanceley 09 Oct 2014
In reply to mypyrex:

And as someone else said follow the news. Bank of England MPC has today voted to keep the base rate at 0.5% - I would expect a small rise in the UK market.
 wintertree 09 Oct 2014
In reply to mypyrex:
> This is purely out of interest but is there any way of identifying what is causing the fluctuations at any one time? Just curious.

If it's an index tracking ISA, there's nothing like doing a Google News search for the name of the index (e.g. FTSE or FTAS) to get some speculation from financial media that may or may not be informed to varying degrees.

Yahoo have lots if info on the indices, including a handy table of top risers and fallers within a given index - e.g. https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/q?s=%5EFTAS - click on a stock symbol to then get headlines about that company etc.

If I was to make utterly uninformed speculation about what's going on now, I'd say war and uncertainty over energy supplies.

Yahoo also show "historical prices" and make them available as a download. If you're modelling the S&S ISA value yourself, don't forget to include dividends if your fund re-invests those, these typically give a 2-3% ROI regardless of actual stock value. Some historical data on these is available, e.g. on Trustnet, for many index tracking ISAs etc.
Post edited at 13:07
 ByEek 09 Oct 2014
In reply to mypyrex:

Let me fix that for you

> Still, as my IFA keeps saying, "Sit tight" whilst paying my fee regardless of whether I am actually doing anything on your behalf.

 Phil1919 09 Oct 2014
In reply to mypyrex:

Don't forget, as the market drops, don't just sit tight, buy some more. When it rises, and everyone starts getting euphoric, time to sell some.
 Offwidth 09 Oct 2014
In reply to Postmanpat:

My equity based ISAs have done better than cash ISA's over the period of since the 2008 crash (one of the worst 6 year growth periods in history). I chose based on best consistent performance and kept a pretty broad portfolio and used the low fees you get in a share supermarkets Cofunds and Fidelity (and never even considered shit bank recommendations with crzy fees on their own products. I didn't try and second guess the market and have done OK. If I'd seen the crash coming and predicted the start of the bounce with hindsight I maybe could have saved 20%.
 Ridge 09 Oct 2014
In reply to BnB:

> Or in this case the threat of war on the ground in the Middle East coupled with a threat of contagion from an epidemic in West Africa.

In that case shouldn't the share prices for armaments and medical PPE manufacturers be shooting upwards?
 wintertree 09 Oct 2014
In reply to Ridge:

> In that case shouldn't the share prices for armaments and medical PPE manufacturers be shooting upwards?

They're not that large a fraction of the indices however, so if you're running on an index tracker instead of an investment fund best described as "the opposite of an ethical investment fund" you're not going to benefit to much in that case.
 Postmanpat 09 Oct 2014
In reply to Offwidth:

> I chose based on best consistent performance and kept a pretty broad portfolio and used the low fees you get in a share supermarkets
>
Unless you want to spend a very large amount of time following markets or have specialist knowledge of particular sectors that is a pretty sensible way to do it. Personally I like index based ETFs which have lower fees.

I got about before the crash but was very slow getting back in!

Unless you believe there is some megacrash on the way (not impossible!) and are storing up canned food and ammunition then one might as stay invested (famous last words).

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