UKC

Has this city got the potential to pull Europe into a war on Ukrainian soil? Its the biggest destabilzing situation as yet because it is so split and also industrially very important.

In reply to MargieB:

I think Putin will go for it. Makes sense for him, as it will help establish a land corridor to Crimea.

Has anyone got the balls to stand up to him though?

In reply to drunken monkey:
Its a question of where we have determined that the "boundaries" of the semi-autonomous states are drawn. I think Mariupol has to be a line because to lose it, is to open land beyond to being run over. Afterall, if the semi-autonomous staes coming up become a potential for full Russian absorption {though it will be resisted} this is now the time to draw a decisive line.

In reply to drunken monkey:

As for the balls, it's more likely that if Mariupol is attacked, Poroshenko will apply to Nato and Nato will have no reason now to refuse. As it stands at present there is still Putin's desired Nato exclusion buffer zone. But does he get this?

In reply to MargieB:

How quickly can NATO membership be rushed through? And do Ukraine meet all if any of the requirements?

The UN should take the lead here - but they wont. UN Peacekeepers in Mariupol - If Putin Attacks, then action would follow IMO.

In reply to drunken monkey:

UN is tootheless body hamstrung by Russia, China. Fairly ineffectual in war situations like this.

In reply to MargieB:

Cant disagree with that.

In reply to MargieB:

Maybe they should have an election to see who the people want to be with, I suspect the majority would prefer to join the DPR. Either way might prevent WW3

In reply to auld al:
its a chronic state of claim and counter claim of abberations in the elections so far. No independent body to oversee elections that won't be decried by one side or another. so elections seem hamstrung too but it seems the most evenly split so the chances of a lot bloodshed are very high. At the moment it is relatively peaceful as it stands under Poroshenko. relative being the operative word here. Its a humaitarian decision versus a political gain and I wonder what Putin judges to be a price worth paying. Mariupol is a really different case from the other regions in terms of justification as regards Putin's European view and would look like territorial aggrandisement rather than his current raison d'etre of protecting ethnic Russians after the collapse of a failed state. I think it is a line in the sand situation.

In reply to MargieB:

I suspect you are correct in saying there would be a lot of bloodshed as Poroshenko would level the place with artillery rather than let it go, as has been shown by his ruthless bombardment of civilians and infrastructure in the "free" areas.
Including use of banned weapons eg cluster bombs, phosphorus weapons, tactical missiles fired into cities.
To me, coming from Northern Ireland, it seems a crying shame that it has come to this.