UKC

Predictions for Creag Meagaidh on Sunday

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 planetmarshall 05 Mar 2015
Haven't yet been to Creag Meagaidh due to unfavourable conditions ( ie, not being able to ski ). Saturday's forecast is for a drastic thaw then an overnight freeze. Anyone more familiar with conditions there care to comment on whether this could make it a good venue for Sun, or one day of thaw not likely to be enough?

Cheers,
Andrew.
 Tim Davies 05 Mar 2015
In reply to planetmarshall:
Isn't the rain forecast into Sunday am too?

Lots of big cornices, rising temps, all those nice funnels at the top of most routes.

Think id give it a day or two?

In reply to Tim Davies:

Well I'd be hoping that those cornices would fall during Saturday, with temperatures then falling to below freezing from Sun morning ( current Met Office forecast ). Only one way to find out I suppose, though I don't really fancy a "take the gear for a walk" day.
 Mark Bull 05 Mar 2015
In reply to planetmarshall:

On the current forecast, I think any refreeze will come too late to produce decent conditions on Sunday, but that could still change if the front goes through 6-12 hours earlier.
 KA 05 Mar 2015
In reply to planetmarshall:

Absolutely massive (bunglalow sized) cornices, which looked more like seracs, on the east facing corries of Beinn a'Chaorainn today. I wouldn't want to go anywhere near them until they have definitely collapsed, maybe this weekend, maybe not...
depthhoar 05 Mar 2015
In reply to planetmarshall:

Met Office severe weather warning for heavy rain, valid until noon on Sunday:

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=warnings&map=...

150-200mm totals over 2 days in wetter parts of the W. Highlands! (However, I notice that MWIS are projecting a 600m freezing level on Sunday.)
 KA 05 Mar 2015
In reply to planetmarshall:

Couple of photos just about showing the cornices today:

http://www.applemountaineering.co.uk/2015/03/05/avoiding-heuristic-traps-e-...
 Piglet69 06 Mar 2015
In reply to KA:

A very good read.

Aidan.
 Frazer 06 Mar 2015
In reply to Piglet69:

walked up into the corrie today. large slides down main slopes probably from cornice collapse. crags black and mostly bare. some deeper lines still holding a bit of ice but looking all round crap. tomorrow should do more damage still
In reply to Frazer:

Cheers, that's helpful. I'll hang on to see tomorrow's avalanche forecast but it is looking like high on the Ben will be the best option following the thaw.

Cheers,
Andrew.
 Simon Caldwell 06 Mar 2015
In reply to planetmarshall:

I'd have thought the Cairngorms would be a better bet, the thaw's not due to be anything like as bad in the east
 drsdave 07 Mar 2015
In reply to planetmarshall:

Looking at the latest SAIS Id give it a wide birth for a couple of days at least. CM is a little notorious for avalanches fropm what I understand.
In reply to planetmarshall:

I'd imagine it'd be a crudfest (breakable crust) with holes all over from the heavy rain underneath scary cornices...

NMM
 Stu McInnes 08 Mar 2015
In reply to planetmarshall:

Went up to check it out today and there has been some very large activity over the last couple of days. It was a mess up there...

Photos and a little write up here, definitely read if your thinking of heading up there -

http://www.climbingcompany.co.uk/blog-3/
In reply to Stu McInnes:

Went to the Ben in the end and climbed Indicator Wall (V 4), even that was mushy.
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