UKC

Summary: The crack continues to widen with clear evidence of debris falling out from it (i.e. stone-fall danger). There is every indication that this collapse is going to take place sooner rather than later.

Detail: The crack is progressively, continuously, rapidly widening relatively speaking with quite a bit of loose debris falling into or out of it. A stone dropped down the back of the crack - reveals how hollow it is. The crack, particularly above and left of Matheson Avenue is perceptibly much wider and very active. Similarly the crack at the crag top is perceptibly wider and quite active as is the crack’s extension down southwest towards the finish of Overhanging Bastion this is very obvious when viewed from above.

There is every indication that this collapse is going to take place sooner rather than later. A local earthquake might do it, recently there have been three quakes in the region (May 22 – Dumfries, May 14 – Coniston, May 11 - Dumfries and Morecambe Bay). The situation is very unpredictable, personally I am starting to be wary of walking under the North Crag!
From notes provided by Dave Bodecott

In reply to Trevor Langhorne:

A clear case for BoulderCam so we can all rubberneck when it finally goes - should be quite a sight

In reply to Trevor Langhorne:

When it does go will it likely reach the road and buildings below?

In reply to Jamie B:


Looking at the size of the bloody thing, Jamie, it might reach Australia

In reply to Trevor Langhorne:

just got back from Castle - not fallen off yet

what constitutes the greatest risk to life at castle
1 the route
2 the rock fall
3 crossing the road to get there

In reply to Trevor Langhorne:

This is getting like the Daily Mail predictions for winters. From 2012 http://www.theguardian.com/uk/the-northerner/2012/oct/04/lakedistrict-mount...

I would love to see the data for the widening plotted over time, I understand it is being monitored?

In reply to Removed User:

http://www.frcc.co.uk/newsarticle.asp?id=6511

In reply to sbc23:

I cannae see the axis labels!

In reply to Removed User:

Right click on the image and view in a new window

In reply to Removed User:

someone needs to open a book....

In reply to Removed User:

Maybe someone could organise a sweepstake on when it will fall. 10% of the income to the winner, 90% to Mountain Rescue?
Come on UKC, or anyone. (I would but I am too disorganised!)

In reply to BnB:


Straight through the earth - or round it on the surface? Sorry to ask but if the latter I need to get out of the way. Thanks.

In reply to johncook:


My bet is 4.33 AM Monday 19 October 2015.

In reply to abseil:

15 Jul 15, 1515hrs... peak summer (if there is one).

In reply to abseil:

Nah it'll go late winter - post freeze thaw. Looking at the derivative of the graphed data and the long range global warming forecast for Keswick I'm going for 2 March 2017

In reply to Removed User:

Highly likely freeze-thaw has no effect at this altitude. Far more significant is seasonal drying out (that's why the motion changes April-June every year) and local earth tremors.
DC

In reply to Dave Cumberland:
Freeze thaw is a factor wherever it freezes and thaws - so depends on the weather.

In reply to Trevor Langhorne:

It will go on December 30th at precisely the same time that Jim Birkett passed away

In reply to Trevor Langhorne:

I think it will when it pisses it down and the rain washes the last of the stuff away that holds it together so I'll say 30th November 2015.

In reply to Red Rover:

5th June 2022, at the stoke of midnight.

In reply to Trevor Langhorne:

I don't care when it goes. I just want someone to record it

In reply to goose299:

Why don't the fell and rock get some demolition experts in and finally get rid of it. We can then watch the demise in slow motion and then watch it re erect itself, time and time again. Then all the local hotshots can start the new routing on what's left.
I can also add all the lost routes to the ever increasing list of routes that I have climbed and have since collapsed over my 53 years of climbing.

Al

In reply to Trevor Langhorne:

If it's that unstable and potentially dangerous why don't the local Authority dynamite it with a controlled explosion?

There is a precedent for doing this. Who remembers the dynamiting of Hounds Head Buttress at Tremadog when it became dangerously unstable?

In reply to Trangia:

Something less explosive would be good. Don't want to blow everything up, just get the loose section off. Got to consider the potential for new routes afterwards!

In reply to abseil:
8:00 pm November 5th. I like fireworks. I have put £20 of my skiing holiday money to on side. If I am not within 5 days either way it goes to mountain rescue and I have to drink 8 beers less!
How about that for commitment!

In reply to johncook:


Fantastic! I'll put 22.50 down. We're living on the edge*!

*Not a pun or metaphor or simile or whatever the heck they're called.

In reply to Trangia:




I don't but I'd be interested to find out more.

In reply to pec:


Hounds Head Buttress was a crack cimb at Tremadog. I forget the grade but IIRC it was about Severe. I first climbed it in the early 1960s. I repeated the climb a few years later and the crack had become a chimney!

Caernarfanshire County Council became concerned at the obvious ongoing movement and instability and in the mid 1960s (I don't recall the exact date) they decided that the risk of collapse, which would have resulted in it spilling onto the road below, was becoming too serious, and they dynamited it.

I can't find much about it on Google now, but it was reported in the press and climbing magazines at the time.

In reply to Trevor Langhorne:

Does this mean that OB is getting even steeper? If so shouldn't it be upgraded?

In reply to jcw: I think geology is doing its best to downgrade it, permanently.

T.

In reply to Pursued by a bear:

Ah but in the meantime, surely I can claim E1 for objective danger?

In reply to Michael Gordon: Get your timing wrong and you may be able to claim significantly more than that. Assuming you finish, of course...

T.

In reply to Pursued by a bear:


"That big crack will surely take a monster cam...."