UKC

So, it seems that the planet is going to experience a strong El Nino pacific warming period this northern hemisphere winter. Now whilst this may cause world wide crop failures in the grain belts and the failure of the Indian monsoon, thus leading to increased tension with Pakistan and a possible nuclear exchange in the Karakorum, what i really care about is am i going to find low level turf frozen on my many unfinished fickle projects around the highlands.
The early to mid 90's were strong el nino years and they were quite lean bare winters as i recall, as were the mid 2000's - but did the el nino years coincide with amazing "once in a lifetime" conditions on Ben Nevis?

Steve Gray of this parish used to have good info on the North Atlantic ossolation, which as i remeber was being a bit wierd a few years ago, but i think that he has moved onto pastures new.

Can anyone educate me as to what the stronf El nino will do for us this winter.
james e

In reply to James Edwards:

no one really knows how it affects britain, there are just too many variables to add to the mix. you will find just as much evidence to suggest a good winter is comming as a bad (from a climbers perspective) one.

In reply to James Edwards:

The daily express will give you the answer you desire soon enough, have a little patience

In reply to James Edwards:
http://blog.metoffice.gov.uk/2015/05/14/el-nino-and-its-impact-on-global-weather/

Just ignore the last line of the report and pray
Or as 3leggeddog says
http://www.express.co.uk/news/nature/593648/Weather-Warning-El-Nino-storms-...

Im now more concerned with your prediction of a nuclear exchange in the Karakorum buggering up my plans next year

In reply to James Edwards:

97/98 was a very strong El Nino and was also the worst Scottish season I can remember, however 2009/10 was a moderately strong El Nino and the conditions were excellent for months on end, so hopefully El Nino develops a little less strongly than forecast as a very strong El Nino seems to produce a mild winter over here around 75% of the time.

That said, there is also currently a large cold pool of water in the mid atlantic and relatively warmer water in the Arctic. This reduces the temperature gradient in the North Atlantic thus promoting less storm development and potentially leading to more high pressure over the north Atlantic.....

In reply to James Edwards:


I was in Scotland and climbing 92 to 96 and all of those seemed rather good winters. We started in October or November in the Southern Highlands or Northern corries and went to Ben Nevis in April. Plenty of snow as well it seemed - I learnt to telemark in those winters.

In reply to LakesWinter:

Yes, experts seem to not know whether this thing going on in the north Atlantic will cancel out the El nino effect or compound it.
I saw something on the BBC turn up almost in response to this post...Current El Nino climate event 'among the strongest' - http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-34120583

In reply to TobyA:

Yes, you are probably correct, I get my 90s winter seasons all mixed up; I have lots of memories of walking around the Cairngorms in January in a t shirt and trainers because there wasn't any snow!

In reply to James Edwards:

Sounds like 97/98 - no routes in condition anywhere in mid Feb, even grade 1 gullies weren't complete....

In reply to James Edwards:
92 one of the poorest i can remember, 93/4 very good, 95 abysmal and snowless, 96 cold, 97/98 crap, 99 can't remember, 2000 the year the Ben was very fat and easy.

In reply to Andy Clarke1965:


I did snowy new routes quite low in the Southern Highlands in Nov 94 and we climbed a very fat Cascade on the Ben in late March or April, I remember soloing down from the top of it down good firm snow slopes only to look in book back at the bottom to realise we had easily downclimbed Raeburn's Easy Route. It can't have been that snowless?

In reply to TobyA:

yeah i think you are right, there was some snow, i did Postman pat on meagie in 95, lots of snow then but little ice, generally a poor winter though, yep i think the winters of 97/8/9 were the really snowless ones.

In reply to Webster:


Indeed, and if it's hard to predict how it will affect the UK as a whole, predicting how it will affect a complex topological area in 1sq km of the western highlands is pretty much impossible. I doubt that will stop anyone trying, though.

In reply to James Edwards:


A stronf El nino means conditions so good and ice so fat that we will be able to climb roadside all winter if we want and that thing we keep walking into will be in perfect condition any weekend we want.

However a strong El nino is entirely different and means we will have to get really fit walk for miles and that thing still won't be in nick (except on Wednesdays).

In reply to rogerwebb:

Au contraire, dear boy, a stronf el nino means either my typing is rubbish or conditions will only be good on routes that feature amazing left to right traverses (excluding Wednesdays).
Probably my typing though.
James e

In reply to rogerwebb:

...wrong day Rodger, it's always Thursdays....you should know that by now....

ANdy

In reply to Andrew Mallinson:

Or Mondays!

In reply to rogerwebb:

...or actually....any day when we CAN'T go climbing !!

ANdy

In reply to Andrew Mallinson:

too right

In reply to 3leggeddog:

haha, so true

In reply to Andy Clarke1965:


Agreed about 96/97 and 97/98, but 98/99 was superb!

I think good seasons often come in clusters: 93/94 to 95/96, 98/99 to 01/02, 09/10 to 10/11
05/06 and 12/13 were also good IIRC.