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It seems Paris is under attack again
Reports a bit sketchy at the moment
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-34814203
Reports a bit sketchy at the moment
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-34814203
In reply to balmybaldwin:
Will be going to Paris tomorrow for about a week.
Not worried but why do people do these things?
Will be going to Paris tomorrow for about a week.
Not worried but why do people do these things?
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In reply to Indy:
It's beyond reasonable comprehension. What ever has happened appears to still be happening. Now BBC think 3 separate shootings at restaurants and an explosion near Stade
Here's hoping the Gendarmes have a plan in place following the Charlie Hebdo attack and catch these idiots quickly
Stay safe next week
Edit and now hostages reported taken at a concert hall
It's beyond reasonable comprehension. What ever has happened appears to still be happening. Now BBC think 3 separate shootings at restaurants and an explosion near Stade
Here's hoping the Gendarmes have a plan in place following the Charlie Hebdo attack and catch these idiots quickly
Stay safe next week
Edit and now hostages reported taken at a concert hall
Post edited at 21:47
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In reply to Indy:
Instructions from God.
> Will be going to Paris tomorrow for about a week.
> Not worried but why do people do these things?
Instructions from God.
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In reply to mark s:
Too early to say, but looks like multiple simultaneous attacks we've seen before.
There's footage of France vs Germany footie match where you can hear a big explosion over the noise of the crowd.
Too early to say, but looks like multiple simultaneous attacks we've seen before.
There's footage of France vs Germany footie match where you can hear a big explosion over the noise of the crowd.
In reply to balmybaldwin:
It's going to be a lot worse by the morning.
I wonder what the reasoning is behind this latest attack?
French borders have been closed. Desperate times call for desperate measures.
It's going to be a lot worse by the morning.
I wonder what the reasoning is behind this latest attack?
French borders have been closed. Desperate times call for desperate measures.
In reply to balmybaldwin:
Sky are saying that was a suicide bomber.
> There's footage of France vs Germany footie match where you can hear a big explosion over the noise of the crowd.
Sky are saying that was a suicide bomber.
In reply to Gone for good:
Hollande has just closed all the French borders (don't know of they just mean land crossings), and raised a national alert. The army are on the streets now and they are storming the Bataclan according to twitter
The football match: https://vine.co/v/iBb2x00UVlv (the noise is apparently a grenade)
Hollande has just closed all the French borders (don't know of they just mean land crossings), and raised a national alert. The army are on the streets now and they are storming the Bataclan according to twitter
The football match: https://vine.co/v/iBb2x00UVlv (the noise is apparently a grenade)
Post edited at 23:25
In reply to balmybaldwin:
Sounds absolutely terrifying, in several venues. V poor coverage by BBC sadly.
Sounds absolutely terrifying, in several venues. V poor coverage by BBC sadly.
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In reply to off-duty:
Have relatives in Paris - happily not heavy metal fans, hope they are all safe.
Have relatives in Paris - happily not heavy metal fans, hope they are all safe.
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In reply to balmybaldwin:
Now saying the bomb/grenade attack at Stade was a suicide attack at Gate J when Hollande was in the stadium.
Now saying the bomb/grenade attack at Stade was a suicide attack at Gate J when Hollande was in the stadium.
In reply to Dr.S at work:
My wife is in a friends flat just 100/200m from the theatre. Says there are people escaping but also explosions and gunfire. Casualties quite numerous being taken to bar opposite.
My Kiwi niece is getting a traumatic introduction to Europe
My wife is in a friends flat just 100/200m from the theatre. Says there are people escaping but also explosions and gunfire. Casualties quite numerous being taken to bar opposite.
My Kiwi niece is getting a traumatic introduction to Europe
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In reply to balmybaldwin:
For the last hour on the BBC News website they've been showing the same old clip with the correspondent saying 'We're still trying to get more information from our Paris correspondent'.
For the last hour on the BBC News website they've been showing the same old clip with the correspondent saying 'We're still trying to get more information from our Paris correspondent'.
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In reply to mark s:
No.. probably not, just 3-4 random shootings on the same night..
> bloody hell
> is it another religious attack?
No.. probably not, just 3-4 random shootings on the same night..
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In reply to balmybaldwin:
It seems the hostage situation at the Bataclan theatre is over and both terrorists have been killed.
One can only hope the French Police are able to obtain some intelligence in the aftermath of these attacks.
It seems the hostage situation at the Bataclan theatre is over and both terrorists have been killed.
One can only hope the French Police are able to obtain some intelligence in the aftermath of these attacks.
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In reply to balmybaldwin:
Sounds like the seige may have ended, but police are warning of a steep rise in casualties.
I'm going to bed.
Glad you've heard from your wife. What a horrible thing to witness.
Sounds like the seige may have ended, but police are warning of a steep rise in casualties.
I'm going to bed.
Glad you've heard from your wife. What a horrible thing to witness.
In reply to Roadrunner5:
Are you serious? This is not some random unconnected series of killings. It was clearly planned and many people have been killed.
Are you reverting to type at this early stage and being deliberately provocative?
Are you serious? This is not some random unconnected series of killings. It was clearly planned and many people have been killed.
Are you reverting to type at this early stage and being deliberately provocative?
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In reply to Gone for good:
Wife just told me that the action is over and the cops came back and gave them the thumbs up. Lot of people getting carried past on stretchers though.
Wife just told me that the action is over and the cops came back and gave them the thumbs up. Lot of people getting carried past on stretchers though.
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In reply to Gone for good:
Wow.. it was quite clearly what it was..
Another religious killing is pretty dismissive of the other factors involved. You have to ask why France is more at risk?
It's not simply just religious nutters, that approach suggests there is nothing that can be done but combat reactively..
> Are you serious? This is not some random unconnected series of killings. It was clearly planned and many people have been killed.
> Are you reverting to type at this early stage and being deliberately provocative?
Wow.. it was quite clearly what it was..
Another religious killing is pretty dismissive of the other factors involved. You have to ask why France is more at risk?
It's not simply just religious nutters, that approach suggests there is nothing that can be done but combat reactively..
Post edited at 00:12
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In reply to Roadrunner5:
Sarcasm doesn't seem appropriate at this time wouldn't you agree.
I think it best to let the security services carry out their investigations rather than jump to conclusions but as to why France is more at risk I couldn't say at this time.
Goodnight.
Sarcasm doesn't seem appropriate at this time wouldn't you agree.
I think it best to let the security services carry out their investigations rather than jump to conclusions but as to why France is more at risk I couldn't say at this time.
Goodnight.
Post edited at 00:16
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In reply to rogerwebb:
Good news, that must be a massive relief. I'd stay pretty tied down until I could get out..
> Wife just told me that the action is over and the cops came back and gave them the thumbs up. Lot of people getting carried past on stretchers though.
Good news, that must be a massive relief. I'd stay pretty tied down until I could get out..
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In reply to balmybaldwin:
Now saying over 100 dead at the Bataclan, but at least 2 attackers dead. 2 attacks confirmed as suicide bombers, 7 attacks in the space of a few hours
Now saying over 100 dead at the Bataclan, but at least 2 attackers dead. 2 attacks confirmed as suicide bombers, 7 attacks in the space of a few hours
In reply to Roadrunner5:
What are you talking about? 'Massive relief'. This was obviously a very 'unrandom' attack in several venues. They're now saying there are 100 dead at the Bataclan concert venue alone.
What are you talking about? 'Massive relief'. This was obviously a very 'unrandom' attack in several venues. They're now saying there are 100 dead at the Bataclan concert venue alone.
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In reply to Gordon Stainforth:
To be fair to Ian he was talking about the relief another poster must have been feeling on hearing his wife was safe (in Paris )
To be fair to Ian he was talking about the relief another poster must have been feeling on hearing his wife was safe (in Paris )
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In reply to Roadrunner5:
Yes. Thanks.
100 dead, just awful.
> Good news, that must be a massive relief. I'd stay pretty tied down until I could get out..
Yes. Thanks.
100 dead, just awful.
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In reply to mark s:
Seems to me like its a revenge attack, in revenge for a revenge attack, which was in revenge for a revenge attack, which was...
F*cking shocking
> bloody hell
> is it another religious attack?
Seems to me like its a revenge attack, in revenge for a revenge attack, which was in revenge for a revenge attack, which was...
F*cking shocking
Post edited at 00:40
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In reply to jimjimjim:
Probably Twitter. There appears to have been a huge revenge attack in Calais now, with a refugee camp on fire.
Probably Twitter. There appears to have been a huge revenge attack in Calais now, with a refugee camp on fire.
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In reply to Gordon Stainforth:
Seems to be false reports....hard to follow what's real and what isn't...
Seems to be false reports....hard to follow what's real and what isn't...
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In reply to Gordon Stainforth:
I think you have misinterpreted him.
He was empathising with me.
In the way many of us reduce matters to our own concerns I have been rather stressed as my wife and niece were shut in a flat listening to the gunfire and watching the police going in.
I was relieved
I realise that many will not be
> What are you talking about? 'Massive relief'. This was obviously a very 'unrandom' attack in several venues. They're now saying there are 100 dead at the Bataclan concert venue alone.
I think you have misinterpreted him.
He was empathising with me.
In the way many of us reduce matters to our own concerns I have been rather stressed as my wife and niece were shut in a flat listening to the gunfire and watching the police going in.
I was relieved
I realise that many will not be
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In reply to Gordon Stainforth:
Hard to know Gordon but bbc reporting it as old footage from social media...
Hard to know Gordon but bbc reporting it as old footage from social media...
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In reply to abr1966:
Yes, I'm reading that now.
> Hard to know Gordon but bbc reporting it as old footage from social media...
Yes, I'm reading that now.
In reply to rogerwebb:
Well, quite a lot of worries. They're now saying 140 dead, and quite a few gunmen still on the loose. 7 venues altogether.
Well, quite a lot of worries. They're now saying 140 dead, and quite a few gunmen still on the loose. 7 venues altogether.
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In reply to jimjimjim:
Euronews or FranceEng (France 24) (both in English)
What they are describing is horrific 15 minutes firing into the crowd followed by hand grenades. Some pretty traumatised police and pompiers wandering around.
Euronews or FranceEng (France 24) (both in English)
What they are describing is horrific 15 minutes firing into the crowd followed by hand grenades. Some pretty traumatised police and pompiers wandering around.
In reply to rogerwebb:
Thanks.. Yes I was talking about you. I'm from a global family so I've had direct family members in places of high risk.. not nice.
Thanks.. Yes I was talking about you. I'm from a global family so I've had direct family members in places of high risk.. not nice.
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In reply to Gone for good:
Thanks, and yes maybe I was late. When I saw this it was pretty clear from the map it was not just random.
Apologies if I upset anyone, this will not end.
We are in this for decades. I think this is NI x 1000..
Thanks, and yes maybe I was late. When I saw this it was pretty clear from the map it was not just random.
Apologies if I upset anyone, this will not end.
We are in this for decades. I think this is NI x 1000..
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In reply to Gordon Stainforth:
the no worries were for your acknowledgement. We lack the words, if we were Italian I would have said prego.
There are many lives ruined tonight, and more to come.
the no worries were for your acknowledgement. We lack the words, if we were Italian I would have said prego.
There are many lives ruined tonight, and more to come.
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In reply to balmybaldwin:
I really must go to bed now, a hate to think what we will wake up to.
A horrible, horrible day
I really must go to bed now, a hate to think what we will wake up to.
A horrible, horrible day
In reply to balmybaldwin:
Just woken up to this shocking news. It's hard to take in, the BBC are talking about "easy targets".
> I really must go to bed now, a hate to think what we will wake up to.
> A horrible, horrible day
Just woken up to this shocking news. It's hard to take in, the BBC are talking about "easy targets".
Post edited at 05:16
In reply to balmybaldwin:
Wonder if this was lined up as a response to the JJ 'demise'? Probably not, though if it were then there would be worrying indications that the IS machine is getter very well-coordinated beyond their heartland. That should be a worry for all of us.
Wonder if this was lined up as a response to the JJ 'demise'? Probably not, though if it were then there would be worrying indications that the IS machine is getter very well-coordinated beyond their heartland. That should be a worry for all of us.
In reply to balmybaldwin:
Holy shit, what have I just woken up to?! This is awful.
So many questions. Why Paris, again? How on Earth can these people get hold of AK47s and grenades in France and how long before we get one of these in London? Scary times.
Holy shit, what have I just woken up to?! This is awful.
So many questions. Why Paris, again? How on Earth can these people get hold of AK47s and grenades in France and how long before we get one of these in London? Scary times.
In reply to TheDrunkenBakers:
probably because they are more active in attacking IS in Syria than most other countries. They had a go at Russia and Europe's porous borders don't lead to the USA. A Europe wide lock down would seem pretty imminent. Where countries will blame terrorism, but be grateful it slows the migrants down.
> So many questions. Why Paris, again?
probably because they are more active in attacking IS in Syria than most other countries. They had a go at Russia and Europe's porous borders don't lead to the USA. A Europe wide lock down would seem pretty imminent. Where countries will blame terrorism, but be grateful it slows the migrants down.
In reply to Roadrunner5:
if this many people are killed in Paris, every year for a few decades. Then that is like NI was through the peak troubles. Some 3000 plus known deaths in NI directly linked to the troubles.
> I think this is NI x 1000..
if this many people are killed in Paris, every year for a few decades. Then that is like NI was through the peak troubles. Some 3000 plus known deaths in NI directly linked to the troubles.
In reply to Greenbanks:
Highly unlikely. These sorts of co-ordinated attacks take months of preparation
They are getting better.
France has one of the largest Muslim populations in Northern Europe. These sorts of isn't just due to the rise of IS. France has history of racial unrest since the Algerian crisis, although this wasn't always from disaffected Muslims but from the disaffected Pied Noir. Having said that there are many immigrants of Algerian origin.
> Wonder if this was lined up as a response to the JJ 'demise'?
Highly unlikely. These sorts of co-ordinated attacks take months of preparation
> Probably not, though if it were then there would be worrying indications that the IS machine is getter very well-coordinated beyond their heartland. That should be a worry for all of us.
They are getting better.
France has one of the largest Muslim populations in Northern Europe. These sorts of isn't just due to the rise of IS. France has history of racial unrest since the Algerian crisis, although this wasn't always from disaffected Muslims but from the disaffected Pied Noir. Having said that there are many immigrants of Algerian origin.
In reply to balmybaldwin:
Just checked, Eurostar still open but need to leave extra time for security.
Watching BBC News just feel an overwhelming sense of sadness.
> With borders shut you might not be able to travel tomorrow.
Just checked, Eurostar still open but need to leave extra time for security.
Watching BBC News just feel an overwhelming sense of sadness.
Woke up late this morning to find a stack of messages on the answer phone, several SMS & emails asking if we were OK. I went to bed early last night & didn't know what had happened until then. Many of the attacks (Rue Charrone, etc) are close to were I used to live, I think I've been in some of the cafés/bars and I pass the Stade de France most days. Had planned to go into the city centre today for some shopping, but think I'll stay at home.
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In reply to balmybaldwin:
I'm going to dispense with the ritual expressions of shock and outrage. I've been predicting this for the past 15 years, other people have been predicting it for the past 50. 9/11 just confirmed my own expectations, shockingly so but unsurprisingly and this one is no more surprising - much less so in fact.
What I want to know is should I be actively trying to dissuade one of my climbing partners from taking one of my daughters to Morroco for a holiday - they're due to depart Boxing Day and the tickets are paid for. There were some random attacks on Western tourists in Fez a week or so ago. http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/617032/Tourists-hacked-knives-British-h...
Are we in for a bout of stormy weather on the Islamic front over the next few months and how's it likely to pan out?
I'm going to dispense with the ritual expressions of shock and outrage. I've been predicting this for the past 15 years, other people have been predicting it for the past 50. 9/11 just confirmed my own expectations, shockingly so but unsurprisingly and this one is no more surprising - much less so in fact.
What I want to know is should I be actively trying to dissuade one of my climbing partners from taking one of my daughters to Morroco for a holiday - they're due to depart Boxing Day and the tickets are paid for. There were some random attacks on Western tourists in Fez a week or so ago. http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/617032/Tourists-hacked-knives-British-h...
Are we in for a bout of stormy weather on the Islamic front over the next few months and how's it likely to pan out?
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In reply to Andy Morley:
>
We fly to Morocco next Saturday for a walking holiday, oh well, see what happens.
>
> What I want to know is should I be actively trying to dissuade one of my climbing partners from taking one of my daughters to Morroco for a holiday - they're due to depart Boxing Day and the tickets are paid for. There were some random attacks on Western tourists in Fez a week or so ago.
We fly to Morocco next Saturday for a walking holiday, oh well, see what happens.
In reply to Moley:
You'd be doing me and probably a lot of other people a favour if you were to share your experiences of that holiday here.
> We fly to Morocco next Saturday for a walking holiday, oh well, see what happens.
You'd be doing me and probably a lot of other people a favour if you were to share your experiences of that holiday here.
In reply to Moley:
Was in Marrakesh for a weeks holiday in October and I felt as safe as I would in any western city.
Also due to fly to Paris on monday for a couple of days (work) and a big part of me wants to fullfil my appointments there.
I find these IS / Middle Eastern issues very difficult to comprehend.
Very sad times
cheers
Gaz
Was in Marrakesh for a weeks holiday in October and I felt as safe as I would in any western city.
Also due to fly to Paris on monday for a couple of days (work) and a big part of me wants to fullfil my appointments there.
I find these IS / Middle Eastern issues very difficult to comprehend.
Very sad times
cheers
Gaz
Post edited at 10:22
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In reply to summo:
I think this is very different.
The IRA largely attacked military or police targets, they were generally targeted strikes, there were a few untargeted bombs, like Manchester and warrington, but generally they didn't just kill randomly like ISIS is orchestrating.
For them any western death is a good thing. I don't think the IRA cared about avoiding unnecessary deaths but they needed funding and had to be seen to be fighting a just war..
Also their terrorists didn't want to die.
I think this is very different.
The IRA largely attacked military or police targets, they were generally targeted strikes, there were a few untargeted bombs, like Manchester and warrington, but generally they didn't just kill randomly like ISIS is orchestrating.
For them any western death is a good thing. I don't think the IRA cared about avoiding unnecessary deaths but they needed funding and had to be seen to be fighting a just war..
Also their terrorists didn't want to die.
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In reply to Roadrunner5:
God help us if it happens here, at least all the French police have guns and were on the offensive within an hour, it would be many hours before enough armed police arrived here to do anything.
God help us if it happens here, at least all the French police have guns and were on the offensive within an hour, it would be many hours before enough armed police arrived here to do anything.
Post edited at 10:42
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In reply to Gazlynn:
It is possible to understand them, but it requires an investment of time and attention. I'm fortunate enough to have studied the history of Islam in some depth in my school history lessons, thanks to an unusually open-minded history teacher.
Arnold Toynbee's 'A Study of History' is a useful starting point for the bigger picture - even though it's more than half a century old, that scarcely matters as it takes a long view of civilisations that have been developing over millenia. But be warned though, even the abridged version is a meaty book. And that's only the beginning...
> I find these IS / Middle Eastern issues very difficult to comprehend.
It is possible to understand them, but it requires an investment of time and attention. I'm fortunate enough to have studied the history of Islam in some depth in my school history lessons, thanks to an unusually open-minded history teacher.
Arnold Toynbee's 'A Study of History' is a useful starting point for the bigger picture - even though it's more than half a century old, that scarcely matters as it takes a long view of civilisations that have been developing over millenia. But be warned though, even the abridged version is a meaty book. And that's only the beginning...
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In reply to Roadrunner5:
I would have researched the number of civilian deaths in NI if I was you, before making that claim.
I would have researched the number of civilian deaths in NI if I was you, before making that claim.
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In reply to Roadrunner5:
Summo is right on this; I've linked to the Wikipedia page on the deaths during the troubles on other threads, and the 'civilian' casualties were much higher than you suggest- something like 50% of the total.
Factor in an almost successful attempt to wipe out the entire government, access to large stockpiles of high explosives, and military weaponry like mortars, together with effective command and control, and the IRA were a lethal threat the likes of which we have not seen in the UK since.
Yet.
If IS fighters returning from Syria with the experience and access to weaponry they have gained there lead to more of the sort of atrocities we saw last night, then that may yet change.
But it doesn't help to downplay the severity the threat irish republicanism posed.
Best wishes
Gregor
Summo is right on this; I've linked to the Wikipedia page on the deaths during the troubles on other threads, and the 'civilian' casualties were much higher than you suggest- something like 50% of the total.
Factor in an almost successful attempt to wipe out the entire government, access to large stockpiles of high explosives, and military weaponry like mortars, together with effective command and control, and the IRA were a lethal threat the likes of which we have not seen in the UK since.
Yet.
If IS fighters returning from Syria with the experience and access to weaponry they have gained there lead to more of the sort of atrocities we saw last night, then that may yet change.
But it doesn't help to downplay the severity the threat irish republicanism posed.
Best wishes
Gregor
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In reply to Andy Morley:
Will do, we've had two trekking holidays there in the past with no problems, so fingers crossed this goes smoothly. Other than landing in Marrakesh and a night there, then bussed out into the countryside and hopefully out of harms way!
> You'd be doing me and probably a lot of other people a favour if you were to share your experiences of that holiday here.
Will do, we've had two trekking holidays there in the past with no problems, so fingers crossed this goes smoothly. Other than landing in Marrakesh and a night there, then bussed out into the countryside and hopefully out of harms way!
In reply to no_more_scotch_eggs:
Be interesting to see if these are returning ISIS fighters from Syria, or (as I suspect) just radicalised french muslims. If the latter, then we are in far more trouble than we think. Politically I suspect we will see winds of change in France and beyond with this. Tolerance will be one of the biggest victims
Be interesting to see if these are returning ISIS fighters from Syria, or (as I suspect) just radicalised french muslims. If the latter, then we are in far more trouble than we think. Politically I suspect we will see winds of change in France and beyond with this. Tolerance will be one of the biggest victims
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In reply to Moley:
I hope you're right. I believe that as things stand, Morocco is considered safer than Spain. But then, European countries are no longer 'safe' either and the situation is developing dynamically. Some up-to-date 'intelligence' on Morocco will be much appreciated
> Will do, we've had two trekking holidays there in the past with no problems, so fingers crossed this goes smoothly. Other than landing in Marrakesh and a night there, then bussed out into the countryside and hopefully out of harms way!
I hope you're right. I believe that as things stand, Morocco is considered safer than Spain. But then, European countries are no longer 'safe' either and the situation is developing dynamically. Some up-to-date 'intelligence' on Morocco will be much appreciated
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In reply to Gael Force:
I'm not sure how true that is. Lots of armed response in London, and more officers trained to use guns. I think the main thing is how hard it is to get weapons like AKs here. Of course Britain has faced bombings, but look at the almost farcical nature of the Glasgow airport attack and then the attempted bombings a week after 7/7 - those men wanted to kill, they just didn't have efficient tools to do it. Long may this remain the case.
I'm not sure how true that is. Lots of armed response in London, and more officers trained to use guns. I think the main thing is how hard it is to get weapons like AKs here. Of course Britain has faced bombings, but look at the almost farcical nature of the Glasgow airport attack and then the attempted bombings a week after 7/7 - those men wanted to kill, they just didn't have efficient tools to do it. Long may this remain the case.
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In reply to Andy Morley:
Every holiday will go smoothly, no problems, have a fantastic time......until it doesn't. Someone telling you they had a great time last week is about as much use as a chocolate teapot. Assess the risks yourself for today, not last week. Will you stand out as a "westerner" are you comfortable going to predominantly muslim country for your holiday, do you think airport security/baggage handling is good etc...
Is Morocco safe? i'm sure it is, safer than Iceland for muslim terrorism? probably not.
Every holiday will go smoothly, no problems, have a fantastic time......until it doesn't. Someone telling you they had a great time last week is about as much use as a chocolate teapot. Assess the risks yourself for today, not last week. Will you stand out as a "westerner" are you comfortable going to predominantly muslim country for your holiday, do you think airport security/baggage handling is good etc...
Is Morocco safe? i'm sure it is, safer than Iceland for muslim terrorism? probably not.
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In reply to no_more_scotch_eggs:
I don't think I downplayed it at all.
Summo move it on to NI civilian deaths. I was talking about the risks of Irish terrorism in the UK.
But even in NI the killings were often targeted, there was colatoral damage but they didn't just walk in random bars killing everyone. When they did shoot up bars there was a target in there.
I think for the intelligemce this is far harder as anywhere is a threat.
I don't think I downplayed it at all.
Summo move it on to NI civilian deaths. I was talking about the risks of Irish terrorism in the UK.
But even in NI the killings were often targeted, there was colatoral damage but they didn't just walk in random bars killing everyone. When they did shoot up bars there was a target in there.
I think for the intelligemce this is far harder as anywhere is a threat.
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In reply to Roadrunner5:
NI is part of the UK - The United Kingdom of Great Britain & Northern Ireland, or at least that's what my passport says.
NI is part of the UK - The United Kingdom of Great Britain & Northern Ireland, or at least that's what my passport says.
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In reply to Doug:
It is.. But the risks in Belfast were incomparable to risks in mainland cities. You only have to look at their police stations.
Anyway Gregor actually supported my view,around 50% of deaths were civilians according to his figures. What is it so far in France over the past year? 95-99% civilian deaths.
I'm surprised we've not had more attempts in the UK, even in the U.S., but especially the UK. I don't think we have the same social issues that France does but even for a serious threat.
It is.. But the risks in Belfast were incomparable to risks in mainland cities. You only have to look at their police stations.
Anyway Gregor actually supported my view,around 50% of deaths were civilians according to his figures. What is it so far in France over the past year? 95-99% civilian deaths.
I'm surprised we've not had more attempts in the UK, even in the U.S., but especially the UK. I don't think we have the same social issues that France does but even for a serious threat.
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In reply to Roadrunner5:
Nope, you said Paris was a 1000x worse than NI. I just referred you to the 3000 deaths in NI, many of which were innocently going about their day, just like everyone in Paris last night. People still suffer in NI every day now, it just falls below the radar of mainland UK newspapers.
> Summo move it on to NI civilian deaths. I was talking about the risks of Irish terrorism in the UK.
Nope, you said Paris was a 1000x worse than NI. I just referred you to the 3000 deaths in NI, many of which were innocently going about their day, just like everyone in Paris last night. People still suffer in NI every day now, it just falls below the radar of mainland UK newspapers.
In reply to Roadrunner5:
so at least 1500 Ni civilian deaths, 200 in paris or there abouts. So whilst it's clearly grim, it's not 1000 times worse in Paris, regardless of your parameters. But even these stats don't show the level of fear and daily intimidation between the two sides in NI that still goes on today, but without doubt was on scale most people in the UK mainland can't imagine during the peak of the troubles.
> Anyway Gregor actually supported my view,around 50% of deaths were civilians according to his figures. What is it so far in France over the past year? 95-99% civilian deaths.
so at least 1500 Ni civilian deaths, 200 in paris or there abouts. So whilst it's clearly grim, it's not 1000 times worse in Paris, regardless of your parameters. But even these stats don't show the level of fear and daily intimidation between the two sides in NI that still goes on today, but without doubt was on scale most people in the UK mainland can't imagine during the peak of the troubles.
In reply to summo: this is just the start.
Well if You are comparing a 30-40 year campaign of Irish terrorism with Islamic terrorism and include the twin towers and its already many more.
The IRA could be brought to the negotiating table, they had an aim, what's the aim of ISIS and the other groups? How can this end?
I think it's very different.
Well if You are comparing a 30-40 year campaign of Irish terrorism with Islamic terrorism and include the twin towers and its already many more.
The IRA could be brought to the negotiating table, they had an aim, what's the aim of ISIS and the other groups? How can this end?
I think it's very different.
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In reply to balmybaldwin:
I'm currently working in Turkey and I must say the collective outpouring of shock, horror and a sense of outrage that once more the name of Islam might be associated with this act of terrorism has been palpable. One guy told me also of the deep sense of shame he felt that IS were named as such: nothing to do with his interpretation of the beliefs that he subscribed to, he said.
But then, that tends to be what happens when a few nutters get hold of a particular belief isn't it. Religion has, I'm afraid, got a fair pedigree in that respect
I'm currently working in Turkey and I must say the collective outpouring of shock, horror and a sense of outrage that once more the name of Islam might be associated with this act of terrorism has been palpable. One guy told me also of the deep sense of shame he felt that IS were named as such: nothing to do with his interpretation of the beliefs that he subscribed to, he said.
But then, that tends to be what happens when a few nutters get hold of a particular belief isn't it. Religion has, I'm afraid, got a fair pedigree in that respect
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In reply to Roadrunner5:
you are changing the argument, stick to your initial claim "paris is 1000x worse than NI".
> Well if You are comparing a 30-40 year campaign of Irish terrorism with Islamic terrorism and include the twin towers and its already many more.
you are changing the argument, stick to your initial claim "paris is 1000x worse than NI".
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In reply to Greenbanks:
The problem is the response of stopping immigration is exactly what ISIS want.. They want a population to terrorise. I think we are all going to play right into their hands. It's hard to see this ever ending. We go to war with those countries, we give them an excuse to attack, but if we don't they will continue.
The best we can do is take in immigrants and be inclusive.
The problem is the response of stopping immigration is exactly what ISIS want.. They want a population to terrorise. I think we are all going to play right into their hands. It's hard to see this ever ending. We go to war with those countries, we give them an excuse to attack, but if we don't they will continue.
The best we can do is take in immigrants and be inclusive.
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In reply to summo:
Well it wasn't meant to be a precise number but I don't doubt one day it will be. But for me, this is many times worse, a far greater threat. Islamic terrorism around the world has already killed many many more.
I said "We are in this for decades. I think this is NI x 1000.."
The we clearly indicates I'm talking about more than just Paris and that this will last decades..you've twice tried to rewrite my claim to make it more specific than it was.
Can you ever see ISIS or another group accepting peace?
I don't think France have done much we haven't. They are just more at risk because they are part of the continent and also they have their social issues it also french speakers from these countries, Egypt, Syria (two of the passports found) can blend in easily. These people just want to kill. I don't think the Irish terror groups (some members no doubt were) generally just wanted to kill..
But I do think the situation is many times worse, totally indiscriminate murders, numerous attacks on the same night. Apart from in Belfast and NI itself we never saw this level of terrorism. The Ira couldn't because it depended on support, most notably from the U.S., it had a publicity battle to wage as well. For some reason they could get people to ignore the civilians killed until 9/11 when US funding ceased over night.
But the Irish groups had clear goals, either pro the union or a United ireland. What do ISIS want? If you asked them what could happen to stop them attacking I don't think they could answer. Maybe cease all attacks in Syria etc but they will still be terrorising groups out there.
Well it wasn't meant to be a precise number but I don't doubt one day it will be. But for me, this is many times worse, a far greater threat. Islamic terrorism around the world has already killed many many more.
I said "We are in this for decades. I think this is NI x 1000.."
The we clearly indicates I'm talking about more than just Paris and that this will last decades..you've twice tried to rewrite my claim to make it more specific than it was.
Can you ever see ISIS or another group accepting peace?
I don't think France have done much we haven't. They are just more at risk because they are part of the continent and also they have their social issues it also french speakers from these countries, Egypt, Syria (two of the passports found) can blend in easily. These people just want to kill. I don't think the Irish terror groups (some members no doubt were) generally just wanted to kill..
But I do think the situation is many times worse, totally indiscriminate murders, numerous attacks on the same night. Apart from in Belfast and NI itself we never saw this level of terrorism. The Ira couldn't because it depended on support, most notably from the U.S., it had a publicity battle to wage as well. For some reason they could get people to ignore the civilians killed until 9/11 when US funding ceased over night.
But the Irish groups had clear goals, either pro the union or a United ireland. What do ISIS want? If you asked them what could happen to stop them attacking I don't think they could answer. Maybe cease all attacks in Syria etc but they will still be terrorising groups out there.
Post edited at 15:39
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In reply to Gael Force:
I think you'd be surprised especially in London the police are well armed or at least have rapid deployment plans in place, not to mention the various London barracks. Hopefully we won't have to find out.
> God help us if it happens here, at least all the French police have guns and were on the offensive within an hour, it would be many hours before enough armed police arrived here to do anything.
I think you'd be surprised especially in London the police are well armed or at least have rapid deployment plans in place, not to mention the various London barracks. Hopefully we won't have to find out.
In reply to balmybaldwin:
Hmm. I agree, hopefully we won't have to find out.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/crime/11986491/Police-forces-may-los...
> I think you'd be surprised especially in London the police are well armed or at least have rapid deployment plans in place, not to mention the various London barracks. Hopefully we won't have to find out.
Hmm. I agree, hopefully we won't have to find out.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/crime/11986491/Police-forces-may-los...
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In reply to balmybaldwin:
Thankfully, it seems like this episode ended last night. I did fear that we might see a repeat of the roving attacks we saw in January.
It is worrying that the number of attackers found 8 (suicide belts killed 7, 1 by police if reports are correct) doesn't seem to tally well with the number of attacks - 7 I think), there does seem to be a genuine fear that others have melted back into the suburbs.
Thankfully, it seems like this episode ended last night. I did fear that we might see a repeat of the roving attacks we saw in January.
It is worrying that the number of attackers found 8 (suicide belts killed 7, 1 by police if reports are correct) doesn't seem to tally well with the number of attacks - 7 I think), there does seem to be a genuine fear that others have melted back into the suburbs.
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In reply to Roadrunner5:
They are generally more active in attacking IS in Syria, and in North Africa in general.
their goals are pretty clear, back to the original caliphate, based on when it was at it's peak. So the IS would be all of North Africa, Little bit of SE Europe, most of ME, even parts of Spain depending the point in time you pick.
> Can you ever see ISIS or another group accepting peace?
never suggested they would.> I don't think France have done much we haven't.
They are generally more active in attacking IS in Syria, and in North Africa in general.
> What do ISIS want? If you asked them what could happen to stop them attacking I don't think they could answer. Maybe cease all attacks in Syria etc but they will still be terrorising groups out there.
their goals are pretty clear, back to the original caliphate, based on when it was at it's peak. So the IS would be all of North Africa, Little bit of SE Europe, most of ME, even parts of Spain depending the point in time you pick.
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In reply to off-duty
In London obviously its better, but in the Lee Rigby tragedy it still took the Met 30 minutes or so to send armed officers to the area. Had those terrorists had AK47's then that might not have turned out well for the police.
In other areas of the country it would be much longer, and the response would be significantly less effective, bearing in mind the police in this country are not allowed automatic weapons, only carbines set to semi automatic.
During the Bird shootings in Cumbria there was no armed police response for well over 90 minutes.
In London obviously its better, but in the Lee Rigby tragedy it still took the Met 30 minutes or so to send armed officers to the area. Had those terrorists had AK47's then that might not have turned out well for the police.
In other areas of the country it would be much longer, and the response would be significantly less effective, bearing in mind the police in this country are not allowed automatic weapons, only carbines set to semi automatic.
During the Bird shootings in Cumbria there was no armed police response for well over 90 minutes.
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In reply to Gael Force:
I'd hope my "Hmm" indicated what I thought of the suggestion UK armed police were well resourced - along with my link to May's proposal for further cuts, specifically in firearms.
I did agree with the hope that our resilience is not tested, but for very different reasons....
I'd hope my "Hmm" indicated what I thought of the suggestion UK armed police were well resourced - along with my link to May's proposal for further cuts, specifically in firearms.
I did agree with the hope that our resilience is not tested, but for very different reasons....
In reply to Gael Force:
True..
However I think the UK is safer for restricted gun use, including the police.. There are plenty of shootings in the U.S. By the police which aren't classed as murder or a crime but could have avoided.
By making guns so restricted we have a good chance of detecting these things in the planning phase.
True..
However I think the UK is safer for restricted gun use, including the police.. There are plenty of shootings in the U.S. By the police which aren't classed as murder or a crime but could have avoided.
By making guns so restricted we have a good chance of detecting these things in the planning phase.
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In reply to DubyaJamesDubya:
No one ever mention single events? Or are you changing argument, if so, you'll probably find films online of 150+ school kids travelling through lines of riot police just get from their homes to school, doing this twice a day for years, probably scared for life?
> How many attacks in NI had 150+ casualties?
No one ever mention single events? Or are you changing argument, if so, you'll probably find films online of 150+ school kids travelling through lines of riot police just get from their homes to school, doing this twice a day for years, probably scared for life?
In reply to Roadrunner5:
guns aren't that restricted in the UK, it just happens that they aren't in the hands of Islamic fanatics, they belong to the drug runners, the various regional mafias and other under world organisations etc.. I would never doubt that they are out there.
> However I think the UK is safer for restricted gun use, including the police.. There are plenty of shootings in the U.S. By the police which aren't classed as murder or a crime but could have avoided.
> By making guns so restricted we have a good chance of detecting these things in the planning phase.
> By making guns so restricted we have a good chance of detecting these things in the planning phase.
guns aren't that restricted in the UK, it just happens that they aren't in the hands of Islamic fanatics, they belong to the drug runners, the various regional mafias and other under world organisations etc.. I would never doubt that they are out there.
In reply to summo:
They are pretty restricted, being repeatedly passed around and re-used due to shortage of supply.
Regardless of what any "man down the pub" might claim...
> guns aren't that restricted in the UK, it just happens that they aren't in the hands of Islamic fanatics, they belong to the drug runners, the various regional mafias and other under world organisations etc.. I would never doubt that they are out there.
They are pretty restricted, being repeatedly passed around and re-used due to shortage of supply.
Regardless of what any "man down the pub" might claim...
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In reply to off-duty:
but more importantly, the kind of people who hold them, would probably prefer to use them against IS, than sell to them!
> They are pretty restricted, being repeatedly passed around and re-used due to shortage of supply.
> Regardless of what any "man down the pub" might claim...
> Regardless of what any "man down the pub" might claim...
but more importantly, the kind of people who hold them, would probably prefer to use them against IS, than sell to them!
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In reply to summo:
You reckon? You actually believe that 'ordinary decent criminals' exist? The only reticence is that once the weapon is in the hands of an Islamic extremist you won't be getting it back. Renting it out is more profitable. If someone turns up with a big enough wad of cash it'll be "Thanks Mo, pass on my number to your mates before you do the suicide thing".
> but more importantly, the kind of people who hold them, would probably prefer to use them against IS, than sell to them!
You reckon? You actually believe that 'ordinary decent criminals' exist? The only reticence is that once the weapon is in the hands of an Islamic extremist you won't be getting it back. Renting it out is more profitable. If someone turns up with a big enough wad of cash it'll be "Thanks Mo, pass on my number to your mates before you do the suicide thing".
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In reply to neuromancer:
Lets go and do what?
Does article 5 apply if a NATO member attacks a none member 'state' and then gets hit back? (genuine question)
> Come on article 5, lets go, let's go.
Lets go and do what?
Does article 5 apply if a NATO member attacks a none member 'state' and then gets hit back? (genuine question)
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In reply to summo:
No idea what you are getting at.
Last night's attack not that big a deal because NI actually worse?
We shouldn't make a fuss about last night's attacks because no one made that much of a fuss over NI?
What has 150 school kids going through police lines got to do with the number of deaths last night?
> No one ever mention single events? Or are you changing argument, if so, you'll probably find films online of 150+ school kids travelling through lines of riot police just get from their homes to school, doing this twice a day for years, probably scared for life?
No idea what you are getting at.
Last night's attack not that big a deal because NI actually worse?
We shouldn't make a fuss about last night's attacks because no one made that much of a fuss over NI?
What has 150 school kids going through police lines got to do with the number of deaths last night?
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In reply to DubyaJamesDubya:
I think if you should scroll back up and read all my posts, it will make more sense than leaping in and commenting?
I was commenting originally because roadrunner said this event was 1000x worse than NI. I said it wasn't. It doesn't in any shape or form make last night's event less horrific.
> No idea what you are getting at.
> Last night's attack not that big a deal because NI actually worse?
> Last night's attack not that big a deal because NI actually worse?
I think if you should scroll back up and read all my posts, it will make more sense than leaping in and commenting?
I was commenting originally because roadrunner said this event was 1000x worse than NI. I said it wasn't. It doesn't in any shape or form make last night's event less horrific.
Post edited at 20:09
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In reply to neuromancer:
It wants to be one though, it controls territory, has a governmental system, in what sense is it not a state? international regognition appears to be what is lacking.
> Da'esh isn't a state, stop calling it that.
It wants to be one though, it controls territory, has a governmental system, in what sense is it not a state? international regognition appears to be what is lacking.
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In reply to DubyaJamesDubya:
What summo said. There is a tendency to underplay the seriousness of the republican terrorist threat and to suggest that we are facing something of a completely different order of magnitude. And to use that narrative to suggest the 'normal rules' need to be suspended, in relation to the legal process, or surveillance, or international obligations.
Up until now, that hasn't been the case- the contrast between the often amateurish character and limited ambition and resource of 'home grown' Islamic terrorism (though it still had the potential to be deadly) and the professional and highly capable Irish republican terrorists couldn't be more stark.
I have to accept, this may be changing. If IS results in Islamic terrorists getting access to more dangerous weapons, and the skills to mount attacks, then that is indeed a very serious escalation of the threat. Time will tell I guess.
Best wishes
Gregor
What summo said. There is a tendency to underplay the seriousness of the republican terrorist threat and to suggest that we are facing something of a completely different order of magnitude. And to use that narrative to suggest the 'normal rules' need to be suspended, in relation to the legal process, or surveillance, or international obligations.
Up until now, that hasn't been the case- the contrast between the often amateurish character and limited ambition and resource of 'home grown' Islamic terrorism (though it still had the potential to be deadly) and the professional and highly capable Irish republican terrorists couldn't be more stark.
I have to accept, this may be changing. If IS results in Islamic terrorists getting access to more dangerous weapons, and the skills to mount attacks, then that is indeed a very serious escalation of the threat. Time will tell I guess.
Best wishes
Gregor
In reply to Dr.S at work:
Yes. It appears to possess all the features of 'statehood'.
And so hopefully can be tackled as such- it needs to have a system of government, infrastructure and civil service which can be attacked.
And seems to be managing the unlikely achievement of uniting the US and Russia against it.
> It wants to be one though, it controls territory, has a governmental system, in what sense is it not a state? international regognition appears to be what is lacking.
Yes. It appears to possess all the features of 'statehood'.
And so hopefully can be tackled as such- it needs to have a system of government, infrastructure and civil service which can be attacked.
And seems to be managing the unlikely achievement of uniting the US and Russia against it.
In reply to no_more_scotch_eggs:
I don't think it is underplaying it to say Islamic terrorism is s greater threat.
Today 150 were killed at a Kenyan university,
We had the beach massacre recently
Now Paris again
40 in Beirut today
Obviously and understandably the attacks in Paris dominate the local news as it's scarier for us, we can be dismissive of bombs in Lebbanon and Kenya as 'itll never happen here' but attacks in Paris could have been in the UK. But they are hitting soft targets, anything they can, pensioners on a beach for example.
I can't think of many times any of the Irish groups attacked so indiscriminately.
That isn't to downplay their reign of terror but I don't think we've seen such mass terror, indiscrimate killings as ISIS. Hopefully like a highly fatal virus it will kill itself. The Irish terror groups we're here more calculating hence why they survived for decades and were funded. When RIRA bombed Omagh they actually apologized, saying it was a mistake, they were much more professional in getting funding.
ISIS and the like just want to kill as many as possible.
I don't think it is underplaying it to say Islamic terrorism is s greater threat.
Today 150 were killed at a Kenyan university,
We had the beach massacre recently
Now Paris again
40 in Beirut today
Obviously and understandably the attacks in Paris dominate the local news as it's scarier for us, we can be dismissive of bombs in Lebbanon and Kenya as 'itll never happen here' but attacks in Paris could have been in the UK. But they are hitting soft targets, anything they can, pensioners on a beach for example.
I can't think of many times any of the Irish groups attacked so indiscriminately.
That isn't to downplay their reign of terror but I don't think we've seen such mass terror, indiscrimate killings as ISIS. Hopefully like a highly fatal virus it will kill itself. The Irish terror groups we're here more calculating hence why they survived for decades and were funded. When RIRA bombed Omagh they actually apologized, saying it was a mistake, they were much more professional in getting funding.
ISIS and the like just want to kill as many as possible.
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In reply to Roadrunner5:
if you're getting your news about kenya from the BBC news website 'most popular' article, please check the date first -
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-32169080
a quick way to spread a false news story...
if you're getting your news about kenya from the BBC news website 'most popular' article, please check the date first -
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-32169080
a quick way to spread a false news story...
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In reply to Roadrunner5:
You'd be lucky...
> Hopefully like a highly fatal virus it will kill itself.
You'd be lucky...
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In reply to Roadrunner5:
Hi Ian,
islamic terrorists still seem to lack the capabilities the PIRA had; access to large supplies of high explosives, not home made stuff, and military-grade weaponry like mortars, and the skills to use this to attack the heart of the state.
the indiscriminacy point is a fair one- but the civilian death toll from the troubles it put at nearly 2000 (wiki page 'the troubles')- far from all being IRA related, but that gives some indication of the scale of the terror. That's a paris or madrid every year for 10-15 years, in one country- and we're not seeing that, yet, in europe at least. Like many other threats, because these were in small numbers, frequently, it doesnt have the impact of rarer, mass casualty incidents like last night; but its no less deadly for that.
And we, largely, didnt throw the rule book out the window- and when we did, it came back to bite us.
I entirely accept this has the potential to be the start of a very serious new phase- if the input of IS turns largely incompetent self-starting amateurs into skilled and well armed 'professionals', then that is very serious indeed; a combination of the potency of the IRA with the willingness to inflict mass casualties that IS has would be a chilling development.
Its not clear thats the case yet; as appalling as the paris events are, they were less deadly than 9/11, the madrid bombings, bali, the russian incidents relating to chechnya, or even the recent bombing of the russian airliner.
What it has shown is that IS is willing and able to plan and execute attacks external to its 'borders'. It has the attributes of a state, and it looks increasingly clear it needs to be dealt with in the way that a hostile power would be, by direct military means.
I expect that is the intention, to provoke a 'last days' 'armageddon'-style conflict with the 'great satan', in fulfilment of prophesy; and that intervention wont really solve anything; but its just not tolerable to have a foreign power conducting deadly attacks, and i expect that there is going to be an escalation of the military response, especially as it looks like france is invoking article 5,
best wishes
gregor
Hi Ian,
islamic terrorists still seem to lack the capabilities the PIRA had; access to large supplies of high explosives, not home made stuff, and military-grade weaponry like mortars, and the skills to use this to attack the heart of the state.
the indiscriminacy point is a fair one- but the civilian death toll from the troubles it put at nearly 2000 (wiki page 'the troubles')- far from all being IRA related, but that gives some indication of the scale of the terror. That's a paris or madrid every year for 10-15 years, in one country- and we're not seeing that, yet, in europe at least. Like many other threats, because these were in small numbers, frequently, it doesnt have the impact of rarer, mass casualty incidents like last night; but its no less deadly for that.
And we, largely, didnt throw the rule book out the window- and when we did, it came back to bite us.
I entirely accept this has the potential to be the start of a very serious new phase- if the input of IS turns largely incompetent self-starting amateurs into skilled and well armed 'professionals', then that is very serious indeed; a combination of the potency of the IRA with the willingness to inflict mass casualties that IS has would be a chilling development.
Its not clear thats the case yet; as appalling as the paris events are, they were less deadly than 9/11, the madrid bombings, bali, the russian incidents relating to chechnya, or even the recent bombing of the russian airliner.
What it has shown is that IS is willing and able to plan and execute attacks external to its 'borders'. It has the attributes of a state, and it looks increasingly clear it needs to be dealt with in the way that a hostile power would be, by direct military means.
I expect that is the intention, to provoke a 'last days' 'armageddon'-style conflict with the 'great satan', in fulfilment of prophesy; and that intervention wont really solve anything; but its just not tolerable to have a foreign power conducting deadly attacks, and i expect that there is going to be an escalation of the military response, especially as it looks like france is invoking article 5,
best wishes
gregor
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In reply to Removed Userena sharples:
i expect they very much would.
which is really part of the point i was making; horrific as the attacks were last night, they were not a step-change in the capability of islamic terrorism. if IS could get their hands on, and equip terrorists with, nuclear material to make a 'dirty bomb', or chemical/biological weapons, or Buk missiles, or RPGs, or even just large amounts of semtex, then i have no doubt that they would be using it.
but the fact they are limited to personal weapons, and home made explosive devices, is a blessing, and a testament to the effectiveness of our security services
i really hope it remains that way
i expect they very much would.
which is really part of the point i was making; horrific as the attacks were last night, they were not a step-change in the capability of islamic terrorism. if IS could get their hands on, and equip terrorists with, nuclear material to make a 'dirty bomb', or chemical/biological weapons, or Buk missiles, or RPGs, or even just large amounts of semtex, then i have no doubt that they would be using it.
but the fact they are limited to personal weapons, and home made explosive devices, is a blessing, and a testament to the effectiveness of our security services
i really hope it remains that way
Post edited at 00:00
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In reply to Dr.S at work:
It does not hold a monopoly on the legitimate use of force within a territory.
Play the game, fight their narrative please.
It does not hold a monopoly on the legitimate use of force within a territory.
Play the game, fight their narrative please.
In reply to no_more_scotch_eggs:
ask the question because they, for all the barking fanaticism, must have some plan? They must surely know that if they did that they in turn would wiped off the face of the earth?
ask the question because they, for all the barking fanaticism, must have some plan? They must surely know that if they did that they in turn would wiped off the face of the earth?
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In reply to Roadrunner5:
I guess your perspective and mine are at odds.
> I can't think of many times any of the Irish groups attacked so indiscriminately.
I guess your perspective and mine are at odds.
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In reply to Dr.S at work:
I think IS has had it as a territory-holding state.
The problem is that when it is obvious they will be flattened in Syria they are going to merge in with the refugees and head for Europe.
I think IS has had it as a territory-holding state.
The problem is that when it is obvious they will be flattened in Syria they are going to merge in with the refugees and head for Europe.
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In reply to neuromancer:
"Legitimate" by whose standards? But anyway neither does the Assad regime; nor the Nigerian,
Malian, Columbian, Burmese, or CAF governments, and no one says they're not states.
> It does not hold a monopoly on the legitimate use of force within a territory.
"Legitimate" by whose standards? But anyway neither does the Assad regime; nor the Nigerian,
Malian, Columbian, Burmese, or CAF governments, and no one says they're not states.
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In reply to Murko Fuzz:
Thanks. Was there anything in particular that made you say that, over and above the events that prompted me to ask the question?
> I'd be wary of Morocco.
Thanks. Was there anything in particular that made you say that, over and above the events that prompted me to ask the question?
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In reply to tom_in_edinburgh:
According to the French this has already happened, apart from the guy with the Syrian passport (fake or real, makes no odds), they are now claiming that the attack was planned from Syria.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-34830233
The actual effectiveness of using the migrants routes to Europe also less important here because it would be simple to use home grown radicals and claim that they were directed from Raqqa.
Why France was chosen is likely to be the availability of volunteers, rather than movement from outside France, the arrest of the Montenegrin in Bavaria in a VW loaded with guns and explosives, shows that an attack in Germany would certainly be simple.
German intelligence says that home grown radicals are recruiting in the refugee camps, but that suggests a shortage of volunteers perhaps more than an immediate threat.
I can't see Merkel surviving if there are a couple of Paris style attacks in Germany, one may sink her, three definitely would. If attacks were planned from Syria as a co-ordinated strategy then it would make sense for ISIS, if they want to show their power in Europe, to attack Germany and try to topple Merkel.
If she persists this week at the G20 to try to persuade EU countries to provide unrestricted travel throughout the EU to anyone with a fake or real Turkish passport then you'd hope the Germans will bring her down anyway but the only way that seems possible ATM is a shift to the Right, which we're seeing widely across the EU already.
> The problem is that when it is obvious they will be flattened in Syria they are going to merge in with the refugees and head for Europe.
According to the French this has already happened, apart from the guy with the Syrian passport (fake or real, makes no odds), they are now claiming that the attack was planned from Syria.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-34830233
The actual effectiveness of using the migrants routes to Europe also less important here because it would be simple to use home grown radicals and claim that they were directed from Raqqa.
Why France was chosen is likely to be the availability of volunteers, rather than movement from outside France, the arrest of the Montenegrin in Bavaria in a VW loaded with guns and explosives, shows that an attack in Germany would certainly be simple.
German intelligence says that home grown radicals are recruiting in the refugee camps, but that suggests a shortage of volunteers perhaps more than an immediate threat.
I can't see Merkel surviving if there are a couple of Paris style attacks in Germany, one may sink her, three definitely would. If attacks were planned from Syria as a co-ordinated strategy then it would make sense for ISIS, if they want to show their power in Europe, to attack Germany and try to topple Merkel.
If she persists this week at the G20 to try to persuade EU countries to provide unrestricted travel throughout the EU to anyone with a fake or real Turkish passport then you'd hope the Germans will bring her down anyway but the only way that seems possible ATM is a shift to the Right, which we're seeing widely across the EU already.
2
In reply to winhill:
My point was that if the French/Russians/US get together and use overwhelming force against ISIS in Raquaa there will be hundreds of thousands of refugees fleeing the bombing and ground fighting and tens of thousands of ISIS fighters trying to mix into them.
> According to the French this has already happened, apart from the guy with the Syrian passport (fake or real, makes no odds), they are now claiming that the attack was planned from Syria.
My point was that if the French/Russians/US get together and use overwhelming force against ISIS in Raquaa there will be hundreds of thousands of refugees fleeing the bombing and ground fighting and tens of thousands of ISIS fighters trying to mix into them.
In reply to Roadrunner5:
Warrington bombing ( which killed a couple of children and was a saturday afternnon in a shopping centre) and Manchester bombing ( the bombs went off too early and should have gone off during the daytime). There were off course the Birmingham bombings ect from a few years before. So not sure you are right!!!
Warrington bombing ( which killed a couple of children and was a saturday afternnon in a shopping centre) and Manchester bombing ( the bombs went off too early and should have gone off during the daytime). There were off course the Birmingham bombings ect from a few years before. So not sure you are right!!!
Post edited at 12:57
In reply to neilh: they were pretty much exceptions and by the splinter group,
The IRA later condemned the Birmingham bombings as being everything the IRA was against. Also they tended to give warnings but these were used maliciously later on.
I'm not painting the IRA as good terrorists, well don't mean to, I just think ISIS are a level of evil we've never seen. Even the corporals at the funeral procession were at least executed pretty much instantly rather than burnt alive or any other method of execution.
ISIS are more dangerous because their guys don't care about dying.
The IRA later condemned the Birmingham bombings as being everything the IRA was against. Also they tended to give warnings but these were used maliciously later on.
I'm not painting the IRA as good terrorists, well don't mean to, I just think ISIS are a level of evil we've never seen. Even the corporals at the funeral procession were at least executed pretty much instantly rather than burnt alive or any other method of execution.
ISIS are more dangerous because their guys don't care about dying.
3
In reply to Andy Morley:
No nothing particular at all, just a feeling. It's very popular with western tourists and it's in the region in general. The border between Algeria and Morocco is still closed but that's not to say bad guys could get across overland. Not sure about Mauritania.
No nothing particular at all, just a feeling. It's very popular with western tourists and it's in the region in general. The border between Algeria and Morocco is still closed but that's not to say bad guys could get across overland. Not sure about Mauritania.
In reply to Roadrunner5:
I don't want to keep banging on about this Ian, especially as I'm not really disagreeing with you on the broad point that Islamic terror has the potential to be much more serious as a threat than republican groups were
But the figures I cited- nearly 2000 civilian casualties of the troubles- make it clear that these were *not* the exceptions.
Put another way - if Islamic terrorists would need to successfully carry out a 7/7 scale attack in the UK every year for nearly *4 decades* to approach the lethality to civilians that the trouble caused.
The difference is in the global reach, and willingness to use large-casualty attacks.
As I pointed out above, if the Syria situation 'professionalises' Islamic terrorists to the same degree that the IRA were, then we really are in serious trouble; but at this point that is not clearly the case.
I don't want to keep banging on about this Ian, especially as I'm not really disagreeing with you on the broad point that Islamic terror has the potential to be much more serious as a threat than republican groups were
But the figures I cited- nearly 2000 civilian casualties of the troubles- make it clear that these were *not* the exceptions.
Put another way - if Islamic terrorists would need to successfully carry out a 7/7 scale attack in the UK every year for nearly *4 decades* to approach the lethality to civilians that the trouble caused.
The difference is in the global reach, and willingness to use large-casualty attacks.
As I pointed out above, if the Syria situation 'professionalises' Islamic terrorists to the same degree that the IRA were, then we really are in serious trouble; but at this point that is not clearly the case.
1
In reply to no_more_scotch_eggs:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Troubles#Casualties
That figure you quoted was all those killed by Republican paramilitary groups in NI, Ireland and GB. To get an equivalent figure for ISIS you would have to count all casualties in Iraq and Syria, and I'm sure it would be more than 2000.
I'm not defending any group but I think it's important we recognise the scale of what is happening in the Middle East.
> I don't want to keep banging on about this Ian, especially as I'm not really disagreeing with you on the broad point that Islamic terror has the potential to be much more serious as a threat than republican groups were
> But the figures I cited- nearly 2000 civilian casualties of the troubles- make it clear that these were *not* the exceptions.
> Put another way - if Islamic terrorists would need to successfully carry out a 7/7 scale attack in the UK every year for nearly *4 decades* to approach the lethality to civilians that the trouble caused.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Troubles#Casualties
That figure you quoted was all those killed by Republican paramilitary groups in NI, Ireland and GB. To get an equivalent figure for ISIS you would have to count all casualties in Iraq and Syria, and I'm sure it would be more than 2000.
I'm not defending any group but I think it's important we recognise the scale of what is happening in the Middle East.
In reply to Mike Stretford:
Not just republican groups, but all civilian deaths, so including loyalist groups too I assume
So fully accept IRA deaths only a subset of that, though the most important subset. And it gives a picture of the total impact of the violence, most of which happened within a pretty small population- 1.8 million
Islamic terror is distributed across the globe , so the 'denominator' population is much higher. I'm arguing, its important to recognise the scale of what happened in Northern Ireland- we have short memories, but the troubles posed a more serious threat in terms of capability and practical execution of plans than Islamic terror has in the UK, to this point.
That may of course change in future; but its not yet a green light to abandon the values that we managed to (mostly) sustain through the existential threats from nazi germany, and the Soviet Union, and from the troubles in Northern Ireland
Best wishes
Gregor
Edit: spelling
And to add- from the Northern Ireland wiki page summary of the troubles- from 1969 to 2003 there were over 36900 shootings and 16200 bombings or attempted bombings.
Absolutely these were not the large scale mass casualty attacks; but they speak to a level of sustained violence unlike anything we've yet seen on the mainland UK.
On a world scale, Islamic terror is undoubtedly the by far the more significant; but not yet within the UK
Not just republican groups, but all civilian deaths, so including loyalist groups too I assume
So fully accept IRA deaths only a subset of that, though the most important subset. And it gives a picture of the total impact of the violence, most of which happened within a pretty small population- 1.8 million
Islamic terror is distributed across the globe , so the 'denominator' population is much higher. I'm arguing, its important to recognise the scale of what happened in Northern Ireland- we have short memories, but the troubles posed a more serious threat in terms of capability and practical execution of plans than Islamic terror has in the UK, to this point.
That may of course change in future; but its not yet a green light to abandon the values that we managed to (mostly) sustain through the existential threats from nazi germany, and the Soviet Union, and from the troubles in Northern Ireland
Best wishes
Gregor
Edit: spelling
And to add- from the Northern Ireland wiki page summary of the troubles- from 1969 to 2003 there were over 36900 shootings and 16200 bombings or attempted bombings.
Absolutely these were not the large scale mass casualty attacks; but they speak to a level of sustained violence unlike anything we've yet seen on the mainland UK.
On a world scale, Islamic terror is undoubtedly the by far the more significant; but not yet within the UK
Post edited at 15:22
In reply to no_more_scotch_eggs:
But you are comparing all deaths by Irish terror groups with those of 7/7 in the mainland UK.
I was a teenager when the IRA were still active in the UK they were a concern at times like Christmas, in Sheffield there was always rumors that Meadowhall would be attacked, but personally I'm more fearful of ISIS, especially when flying. Maybe that's just an age thing but the risk in the mainland UK was pretty minimal.
But you are comparing all deaths by Irish terror groups with those of 7/7 in the mainland UK.
I was a teenager when the IRA were still active in the UK they were a concern at times like Christmas, in Sheffield there was always rumors that Meadowhall would be attacked, but personally I'm more fearful of ISIS, especially when flying. Maybe that's just an age thing but the risk in the mainland UK was pretty minimal.
2
In reply to Roadrunner5:
Well, I'm comparing them with deaths in the UK caused by Islamic terror- which have, thankfully, so far, been relatively few.
And the product of self-starting 'amateurs' rather than hardened 'professional' terrorists
You may not have felt as threatened by the IRA but that doesn't mean that they weren't a very serious threat indeed, with, as I keep pointing out, the capacity nearly to wipe out the government of the country.
Not down playing the global threat posed by Islamism in any way- and things may be about to get much worse on mainland Europe. Just pointing out that the Irish threat was real, and serious, and not restricted to a small number of bombs which they gave 'fair warning' about...
Cheers
Gregor
Well, I'm comparing them with deaths in the UK caused by Islamic terror- which have, thankfully, so far, been relatively few.
And the product of self-starting 'amateurs' rather than hardened 'professional' terrorists
You may not have felt as threatened by the IRA but that doesn't mean that they weren't a very serious threat indeed, with, as I keep pointing out, the capacity nearly to wipe out the government of the country.
Not down playing the global threat posed by Islamism in any way- and things may be about to get much worse on mainland Europe. Just pointing out that the Irish threat was real, and serious, and not restricted to a small number of bombs which they gave 'fair warning' about...
Cheers
Gregor
1
1
In reply to Roadrunner5:
I lived in Warrington at the time of the bombing ( and I knew quite a few people who were lucky to escape), a former lodger of mine saw the gas tank as it was blown up a few days later and I also started a new job in Manchester the day of the IRA bomings ( fortunately Icould get into work as it did not affect the part of the city hit by the bombs). I know the nurse who looked after the policeman who was shot by the IRA at the time. Believe me it was a very nervous time.
I lived in Warrington at the time of the bombing ( and I knew quite a few people who were lucky to escape), a former lodger of mine saw the gas tank as it was blown up a few days later and I also started a new job in Manchester the day of the IRA bomings ( fortunately Icould get into work as it did not affect the part of the city hit by the bombs). I know the nurse who looked after the policeman who was shot by the IRA at the time. Believe me it was a very nervous time.
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