In reply to Simon4:
> Very little. People like Boris and those that like Farage like him very much (he is not trying to appeal to those that have a knee-jerk hatred for him as they will never change their views anyway). No-one other than a few thousand university Trots and stupid mask-wearing, ruck-at-demo-causing rowdies like Corbyn and most of them think it is too "bourgeois" or "neo-Liberal" to vote anyway.
> No good reason to think that non-voters split much different to voters, nor is there anything to suggest that Corbyn will motivate them to vote at all, still less specifically for him. Their main defining feature is that they do not vote and mostly never will, due to ignorance, indifference or whatever cause, but whatever the cause is, it is unlikely to vanish soon. As for the "sympathy vote", that doesn't survive the privacy of the ballot box, if it even gets remotely close to that - when push comes to shove, people prefer a bastard as PM provided he is a reasonably competent bastard, to a well-meaning buffoon with his head in the clouds.
There seems to be an awful lot of personal opinion and supposition dressed up as fact I that, Simon.
For example, I think there are plenty of good reasons to think that non voters may split differently to voters. They may have never felt engaged by the largely on-message Oxbridge educated middle aged white males discussing variants of a consensus that they feel alienated from; someone who they perceive (rightly or wrongly) to be outside that group and to be offering a different philosophy may engage, or re-engage, them with politics and general and voting in particular, and this group are likely to vote in patterns different from current voters
I suspect that this goes beyond a few professional demonstrators and trots, the numbers who voted for him seem too large for that
Does it go far enough beyond this constituency to have a serious shot at winning the election? I very much doubt it. For all my reservations over the approach the media are taking, he isn't performing well enough, and relying on a sympathy vote isn't good enough
But I'm prepared to wait to see how he does in an actual election campaign; and not only do I think he's good for politics, I think he's essential- the sort of social and economic views he promotes may well be impractical and wrong, but they are shared by a large chunk of the electorate- and if no party gives a platform for them to be expressed, then substantial parts of the country become alienated from mainstream politics, damaging democracy as a whole
Best wishes
Gregor