In reply to DR:
Davie,
Your analysis in the last paragraph is sensible, and on December 5th, proximity to water courses, deltas and flood plains or the lake was going to result in devastation and agree that nothing can create 100% protection. The Borrowdale floods of 1963 were the same, although not it seems due to "global warming". The run-off is vertical and immediate in those situations. Meanders will always be short-circuited in high flow regimes I agree - that is the first geography lesson we all learn (ox-bows).
Coming back to the experts issue - I don't wish to diminish your expertise and experience, but when the Lake District was made a National Park in about 1953, it was very special. Up to that point the area had not been managed by quangos or experts, it had been managed by local landowners and farmers, rural district councils with small numbers of local people who had the experience and local knowledge to know what they were doing, and no computers. When this issue is now discussed in all the pubs and Parish meetings locally, there is a general feeling that the past management of the Lake District was much more effective than the current one. I am simply repeating here what gets said very frequently in my experience whenever this topic comes up. The old-timers and some less old do talk about dredging the rivers amongst other things. If you are going to have a cross-sectional prism of water of an excess volume or at the high end of the scale, it might as well be located topographically low rather than topographically high and overbank with canalised over-heightened defences.
When I was a kid I spent much time playing in a local river, it was deep, it was dredged, it had clear water, full of wildlife and salmon, there were protective banks, it was not canalised, it never flooded overbank. Now in Summer the channel is full of debris, so inevitably in winter the water will come over the sides under flood conditions.
Actually a lot of the old-timers DID know what they were doing because they had a timeless view of the landscape that they were intimately connected to. Same with local lengthsmen on all the roads - the drains, streams, culverts and gutters were always kept in good order. It was a very good working system but not everyone subscribes to the ethos "if it ain't broke don't fix it".
Another issue - I believe there should be a disconnection between national, idealistic, aspirational environmental policies (for whatever justifications being used at the time, e.g. Carbon, wildlife, diversity, job creation) and local land and landscape management. The Lake District should be managed in a light-touch appropriate way that is fit-for-purpose rather than a "save the planet dogma" because many would argue it is not working. And we still do not know what changes the climate no matter what was said in Paris or anywhere else. Big topic, not enough time to discuss here.
Keep up the good work, the system may be wrong in the locals views but the people are still well-intentioned.