UKC

It seems fairly clear that all this crappy weather is being driven by the current El Niño weather system.

According to NASA, this hasn't yet peaked, and could surpass the 1997-98 El Niño:
http://www.cbsnews.com/news/the-worst-of-el-nino-is-still-to-come/

I'm fairly new to winter climbing and generally thinking about long term weather. So, from people's experience, is there any hope that the weather will settle down out any point and we might eventually get some decent winter conditions? Or is it time to just write this winter off, count myself fortunate that I've lost nothing more than some good climbing days and hope that Spring brings some clear days and sunshine?

How did the winter of 1997-98 pan out in the UK?

In reply to Trevers:

The geese foretold this, months ago.

In reply to Roberttaylor:

I'm not a goose unfortunately

In reply to Trevers:

I would say it's not a good sign for the winter (sea temperatures being warmer and the Jetstream being stronger) but I haven't given up yet. There is cold air over Siberia and at present the Jetstream is holding it away. But if the Jetstream uses its power to change direction and heads further south, then we'll get that cold continental air and the warm sea won't matter.

In reply to Trevers:

It isn't just El Nino you have to consider, the North Atlantic has also switched to a cold phase. Although there have been some extreme events recently, this type of stormy weather is very common at this time of year. The Atlantic is relatively warm whilst cold air is pushing down from the north which = big contrast and therefore violent storms. Feb/March can be much more settled once the oceans have had a chance to cool. There has been a huge jump in the number of snow patches surviving into the summer months over the last 2 years. 2 winters ago there was a massive quantity of snow that fell on the Highlands above 800 and last winter just went on and on. Don't write the winter off (and hence your climbing) before its begun! This may help http://www.metcheck.com/UK/singularities.asp & http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/reports/philip-eden/Singularities.htm

In reply to Trevers:
The sign of a really bad winter so far is Andy Nisbet at home on a computer on a Sunday morning in January

In reply to Trevers:

P.S. Having been on the summit of Cairngorm at 4:30 last night I can tell you it was snowing heavily. The outlook is for consistent heavy snow over the next few days with some windows of opportunity towards the end of the week.

In reply to Roberttaylor:


Geese? Bloody geese! They try and get in on the act all the time. I thought it was the Bewick Swans?

In reply to Trevers:


Good grief. It's only the third of January.

In reply to L.A.:


Surely just the sign of a really, really crap Sunday morning in January.

In reply to Robert Durran:


And the El Niño is continuing to strengthen. That was why I asked about 1997-98...

In reply to Trevers:

Well, 2 winters ago was crap so I'm not sure it is specifically down to El Nino. More just luck of the draw.

In reply to Trevers:

97 98 was awful, the worst winter of the last 20 years. Lots of mild thawing, little build up. The pressure patterns are currently quite different though, so..... Pattern matching in weather generally doesn't work.