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Devils Kitchen (Cwm Idwal) - (Clogwyn y Geifr) Hey. Does anyone know when and if the conditions will be good for devils kitchen anytime soon?
In reply to DaveCoates:
Not sure if you're aware of this service or not:
https://www.thebmc.co.uk/idwal
Not sure if you're aware of this service or not:
https://www.thebmc.co.uk/idwal
3
In reply to David Kirsfelds:
Check the crystal ball. The low routes in Cwm Idwal are incredibly ephemeral, the last time it was in was 2013, and before that, 2010. Not to sure further in history. Also given that's it's been an incredibly warm winter so far, I can't see it being in this season, but I'll be more than happy to eat my words.
Whilst it's about Kinder Downfall, literally every point made in this video is relevant:
youtube.com/watch?v=zGq-3TlswZs&
Check the crystal ball. The low routes in Cwm Idwal are incredibly ephemeral, the last time it was in was 2013, and before that, 2010. Not to sure further in history. Also given that's it's been an incredibly warm winter so far, I can't see it being in this season, but I'll be more than happy to eat my words.
Whilst it's about Kinder Downfall, literally every point made in this video is relevant:
youtube.com/watch?v=zGq-3TlswZs&
Post edited at 19:58
4
In reply to DaveCoates:
Check the weather forecast too. It doesn't take much effort or thought to work out what the conditions are going to be like 1000ft up.
Watching Ian's short but enjoyable video clip will indeed enhance your prospect of making a pretty educated guess of any weather forecast and the likelyhood of things being "in".
Check the weather forecast too. It doesn't take much effort or thought to work out what the conditions are going to be like 1000ft up.
Watching Ian's short but enjoyable video clip will indeed enhance your prospect of making a pretty educated guess of any weather forecast and the likelyhood of things being "in".
1
In reply to DaveCoates:
Just a heads up that the Devil's Kitchen path is currently very unpleasant. The top (just below the wall) is a stream, lower down is soft slushy snow (probably now getting more solid)
Just a heads up that the Devil's Kitchen path is currently very unpleasant. The top (just below the wall) is a stream, lower down is soft slushy snow (probably now getting more solid)
In reply to ianstevens:
Some of the ice routes in the Devils kitchen have been ticked every year in the last 6 (check the logs although I accept only about half those years will have been epic - 09/10, 10/11, 12,13 winters). It's far too early to write the whole winter off at this stage we haven't even got to February yet and I've lead routes there in April before now.
Some of the ice routes in the Devils kitchen have been ticked every year in the last 6 (check the logs although I accept only about half those years will have been epic - 09/10, 10/11, 12,13 winters). It's far too early to write the whole winter off at this stage we haven't even got to February yet and I've lead routes there in April before now.
Post edited at 00:04
2
2
In reply to CurlyStevo:
As have I. However when it was in condition in April the winter in general had been very cold; a completly different weather pattern to that has established this winter, hence my lack of hope for routes in Idwal coming in this season - I do want it to happen! As for ascents in 2014 and 15? I believe this is case of confusion with summer/winter versions of the route, and furthermore, considering the "conditions" people went climbing in yesterday...
> Some of the ice routes in the Devils kitchen have been ticked every year in the last 6 (check the logs although I accept only about half those years will have been epic - 09/10, 10/11, 12,13 winters). It's far too early to write the whole winter off at this stage we haven't even got to February yet and I've lead routes there in April before now.
As have I. However when it was in condition in April the winter in general had been very cold; a completly different weather pattern to that has established this winter, hence my lack of hope for routes in Idwal coming in this season - I do want it to happen! As for ascents in 2014 and 15? I believe this is case of confusion with summer/winter versions of the route, and furthermore, considering the "conditions" people went climbing in yesterday...
In reply to ianstevens:
I understand you being unenthusiastic given the winter so far, however I don't think you'll find much evidence to show a mild winter until mid January means it won't get cold in February.
Yeah some of those ticks might be people just not filling in the dates (ie the ones of the form ??/2014), however others are clearly not and also not summer ascents.
Anyway chinup the current weather systems we've been getting seem to be changing ( check out the EU region here http://weather.unisys.com/gfs/gfs.php?inv=0&plot=850£ion=us&t=9p )
I understand you being unenthusiastic given the winter so far, however I don't think you'll find much evidence to show a mild winter until mid January means it won't get cold in February.
Yeah some of those ticks might be people just not filling in the dates (ie the ones of the form ??/2014), however others are clearly not and also not summer ascents.
Anyway chinup the current weather systems we've been getting seem to be changing ( check out the EU region here http://weather.unisys.com/gfs/gfs.php?inv=0&plot=850£ion=us&t=9p )
Post edited at 13:19
In reply to CurlyStevo:
I've always found that the weather pattern we have in the December/Jan period implies reasonably well what will happen the rest of the winter, although I've no real data for this. I've got my on the weather and one like it come in as much as the next man, to the extent I'll probably wander higher up later to this week to see what's going on. Maybe I'm just bitter after a GIS exam prevented me getting on the Appendix the last time it was in!
I've always found that the weather pattern we have in the December/Jan period implies reasonably well what will happen the rest of the winter, although I've no real data for this. I've got my on the weather and one like it come in as much as the next man, to the extent I'll probably wander higher up later to this week to see what's going on. Maybe I'm just bitter after a GIS exam prevented me getting on the Appendix the last time it was in!
In reply to CurlyStevo:
i dont think anybody is claiming that! but the point is (and im sure we have had this discussion before) that it takes time for the ground and ground water to cool down. given the exceptionally warm and wet december i bet the groundwater forming the drainage lines in idwal is closer to the temperature usually found in october not january! doesnt mean it wont freeze in a months time but it does make it much less likely that anything will begin to form in the usual 5-7 days of constant sub zero if it were to happen right now (which it is maybe forecast to do so...).
i want it to form again as much as the next guy, but it is perfectly sound scientific judgement to say that the warm december will set back any chances of climeable ice forming in idwal in the imediate future.
> I understand you being unenthusiastic given the winter so far, however I don't think you'll find much evidence to show a mild winter until mid January means it won't get cold in February.
i dont think anybody is claiming that! but the point is (and im sure we have had this discussion before) that it takes time for the ground and ground water to cool down. given the exceptionally warm and wet december i bet the groundwater forming the drainage lines in idwal is closer to the temperature usually found in october not january! doesnt mean it wont freeze in a months time but it does make it much less likely that anything will begin to form in the usual 5-7 days of constant sub zero if it were to happen right now (which it is maybe forecast to do so...).
i want it to form again as much as the next guy, but it is perfectly sound scientific judgement to say that the warm december will set back any chances of climeable ice forming in idwal in the imediate future.
2
In reply to Webster:
Not sure the stats agree with you there - the water flowing in to devils kitchen comes from higher up on the hill, currently the turf at 30cm at 850m is 1 degree C https://www.thebmc.co.uk/idwal
Also Ian was basically saying it wouldn't come in this season not it is a little less likely to come in. I still think its too early to say that.
To some extent I disagree with your whole premise about everything taking a long time to cool down and that the warm December will make a massive difference. Wales spends most the winter above freezing at the height of the tops of the mountains IMO. Water is a very good conductor of heat so commonly between cold spells in Wales the ground will be getting heated up well above freezing by rain anyway. I reckon given a week of -5 and below at the height of devils kitchen many of the routes would be in nick no problem at all.
Not sure the stats agree with you there - the water flowing in to devils kitchen comes from higher up on the hill, currently the turf at 30cm at 850m is 1 degree C https://www.thebmc.co.uk/idwal
Also Ian was basically saying it wouldn't come in this season not it is a little less likely to come in. I still think its too early to say that.
To some extent I disagree with your whole premise about everything taking a long time to cool down and that the warm December will make a massive difference. Wales spends most the winter above freezing at the height of the tops of the mountains IMO. Water is a very good conductor of heat so commonly between cold spells in Wales the ground will be getting heated up well above freezing by rain anyway. I reckon given a week of -5 and below at the height of devils kitchen many of the routes would be in nick no problem at all.
Post edited at 15:12
In reply to CurlyStevo:
I asume you are refering to 'Idwal stream' which is gernerally the most reliable route anyway.
all the logs in 2015 describe it as out of nick, the only log in 2014 is a ??? and almost certainly someone backdating their logbook. then you into the good few years. on ballance the last 6 years arent a good yardstick to measure the reliability of a winter crag by as we have been blessed with a cycle of unusually good winters with more things beeing climeable more often in 3-4 seasons than probably the entire preceeding 10-15 years.
fingers crossed that this cycle of good winters continues, and this winter kicks on after this current cold snap, but it is still fair to describe idwal ice as an ephemeral rather than annual occurence.
> Some of the ice routes in the Devils kitchen have been ticked every year in the last 6
I asume you are refering to 'Idwal stream' which is gernerally the most reliable route anyway.
all the logs in 2015 describe it as out of nick, the only log in 2014 is a ??? and almost certainly someone backdating their logbook. then you into the good few years. on ballance the last 6 years arent a good yardstick to measure the reliability of a winter crag by as we have been blessed with a cycle of unusually good winters with more things beeing climeable more often in 3-4 seasons than probably the entire preceeding 10-15 years.
fingers crossed that this cycle of good winters continues, and this winter kicks on after this current cold snap, but it is still fair to describe idwal ice as an ephemeral rather than annual occurence.
1
In reply to Webster:
There is ticks for various routes in the last two years (not including the ??/14 etc ticks), anyway I wasn't there so I'm not commenting further on condtions.
I think it would be fair to say in the last 6 seasons at devils kitchen (not including this one) 50% have seen very good conditions and 2 of those years over long periods of time during the winter. you seem to have forgotten how good the 09/10 winter was, this was the best winter in the last 10. The 10,11 winter was also very very cold from early November to around mid to late December.
There is ticks for various routes in the last two years (not including the ??/14 etc ticks), anyway I wasn't there so I'm not commenting further on condtions.
I think it would be fair to say in the last 6 seasons at devils kitchen (not including this one) 50% have seen very good conditions and 2 of those years over long periods of time during the winter. you seem to have forgotten how good the 09/10 winter was, this was the best winter in the last 10. The 10,11 winter was also very very cold from early November to around mid to late December.
Post edited at 15:21
In reply to CurlyStevo:
I'm going to be picky - water is an awful conductor of heat. It has a high heat capicity so rain at say, 2 *C actually has quite a lot of heat energy stored within it, and it takes a big energy gain/loss for it to change in state relative to other materials. Same outcome as you describe however.
> Not sure the stats agree with you there - the water flowing in to devils kitchen comes from higher up on the hill, currently the turf at 30cm at 850m is 1 degree C https://www.thebmc.co.uk/idwal
> Also Ian was basically saying it wouldn't come in this season not it is a little less likely to come in. I still think its too early to say that.
> To some extent I disagree with your whole premise about everything taking a long time to cool down and that the warm December will make a massive difference. Wales spends most the winter above freezing at the height of the tops of the mountains IMO. Water is a very good conductor of heat so commonly between cold spells in Wales the ground will be getting heated up well above freezing by rain anyway. I reckon given a week of -5 and below at the height of devils kitchen many of the routes would be in nick no problem at all.
I'm going to be picky - water is an awful conductor of heat. It has a high heat capicity so rain at say, 2 *C actually has quite a lot of heat energy stored within it, and it takes a big energy gain/loss for it to change in state relative to other materials. Same outcome as you describe however.
In reply to ianstevens:
Ok fair point but its a lot better conductor than air and the warm water will drain through the ground.
Ok fair point but its a lot better conductor than air and the warm water will drain through the ground.
In reply to ianstevens:
Not sure I agree with that either tbh, what about the 10/11 winter started amazing then went mild.
There was a winter around 07 which started mild and crap until mid feb but ended up being the best conditions on the ben late season I can remember (March / April) very fat plastic ice and blue skies with light winds. I think there is only one certainty about the british weather it doesn't follow any set patterns!
> I've always found that the weather pattern we have in the December/Jan period implies reasonably well what will happen the rest of the winter, although I've no real data for this. I've got my on the weather and one like it come in as much as the next man, to the extent I'll probably wander higher up later to this week to see what's going on. Maybe I'm just bitter after a GIS exam prevented me getting on the Appendix the last time it was in!
Not sure I agree with that either tbh, what about the 10/11 winter started amazing then went mild.
There was a winter around 07 which started mild and crap until mid feb but ended up being the best conditions on the ben late season I can remember (March / April) very fat plastic ice and blue skies with light winds. I think there is only one certainty about the british weather it doesn't follow any set patterns!
Post edited at 15:40
In reply to Webster:
If you have a look at this graph (for turf at 30cm 850m 30 days) you can see how fast the turf temperature at 30cm follows the air temperature, surprisingly quickly actually (both up and down when its not insulated by snow) https://www.thebmc.co.uk/idwal
If you have a look at this graph (for turf at 30cm 850m 30 days) you can see how fast the turf temperature at 30cm follows the air temperature, surprisingly quickly actually (both up and down when its not insulated by snow) https://www.thebmc.co.uk/idwal
Post edited at 15:46
In reply to CurlyStevo:
Fair enough - I'm only a spring chicken after all, most of my pre-2010 winters were spent pulling plastic/getting fat. Again, I think we're making the same point - water can store and remove a good chunk of energy from the turf. And vice versa. Of course it's the water itself that needs to freeze as turf is already solid - however warm water will leave the system via groundwater throughflow. Physics semantics aside...
I would very much like it to come in, I just can't see it happening this week! I'm holding out for mixed stuff higher up.
Fair enough - I'm only a spring chicken after all, most of my pre-2010 winters were spent pulling plastic/getting fat. Again, I think we're making the same point - water can store and remove a good chunk of energy from the turf. And vice versa. Of course it's the water itself that needs to freeze as turf is already solid - however warm water will leave the system via groundwater throughflow. Physics semantics aside...
I would very much like it to come in, I just can't see it happening this week! I'm holding out for mixed stuff higher up.
In reply to CurlyStevo:
yeh, looking at the graph if you take the big dip in air tempt over NY, it was at or below 0 for 3 days yet the turf didnt get much below 3 deg. if you assume the temp had remained sub zero after that and extrapolate the turf temp curve down (fairly unscientific i know) then the turf wouldnt have reached zero untill around the 7th/8th, thats over a week of sub zero to properly freeze the ground. then it would take further time on top of that to build any ice (but of course the ice will start forming before the ground is fully frozen...). again all fairly unscientific but just highlights my point that a higher start temp = longer to freeze. also that there is quite the lag after sudden temp drops - you will freeze the turf quicker if the temp hovers around freezing for a week or so than if it plummets to -7 at night but then gets up to 4ish in the days for the same period of time.
yeh, looking at the graph if you take the big dip in air tempt over NY, it was at or below 0 for 3 days yet the turf didnt get much below 3 deg. if you assume the temp had remained sub zero after that and extrapolate the turf temp curve down (fairly unscientific i know) then the turf wouldnt have reached zero untill around the 7th/8th, thats over a week of sub zero to properly freeze the ground. then it would take further time on top of that to build any ice (but of course the ice will start forming before the ground is fully frozen...). again all fairly unscientific but just highlights my point that a higher start temp = longer to freeze. also that there is quite the lag after sudden temp drops - you will freeze the turf quicker if the temp hovers around freezing for a week or so than if it plummets to -7 at night but then gets up to 4ish in the days for the same period of time.
In reply to Webster:
Looks like we both read that graph very differently.
In actual fact if you read the graph properly (you can read the exact dates by hovering the mouse over the graph) it was only below freezing for 24 hours over new year and then it only got down to -2 momentarily before heading straight back up. The air was only colder than the ground for less than 3 days yet in those 3 days the turf temperature dropped from 5.86 deg to under 2.73 deg, highlighting my point of how quickly it can change given the right conditions and it wasn't even that cold!
You can also see how quickly the turf temperature rose around the 25th of December over 3 degrees in a day - these mild wet conditions are always coming through north wales during the winter and I think it casts further doubt on to your theory regarding how important the prior weather is for devils kitchen to come in to nick once really cold weather hits. Sure it may take a day or 2 longer than normal if it's been really mild but I can't see it making much more difference than that tbh.
Insulating the turf with snow can make a much bigger difference however water will still freeze to ice when exposed to very cold air. How much this will affect the system if the ground is unusually warm and then it snows heavily is anyone's guess, although if its really cold water ice does always start forming in my experience anyway. If the ground really was that warm it would be melting the snow pack from the bottom and that would also cool the ground / ground water down.
Looks like we both read that graph very differently.
In actual fact if you read the graph properly (you can read the exact dates by hovering the mouse over the graph) it was only below freezing for 24 hours over new year and then it only got down to -2 momentarily before heading straight back up. The air was only colder than the ground for less than 3 days yet in those 3 days the turf temperature dropped from 5.86 deg to under 2.73 deg, highlighting my point of how quickly it can change given the right conditions and it wasn't even that cold!
You can also see how quickly the turf temperature rose around the 25th of December over 3 degrees in a day - these mild wet conditions are always coming through north wales during the winter and I think it casts further doubt on to your theory regarding how important the prior weather is for devils kitchen to come in to nick once really cold weather hits. Sure it may take a day or 2 longer than normal if it's been really mild but I can't see it making much more difference than that tbh.
Insulating the turf with snow can make a much bigger difference however water will still freeze to ice when exposed to very cold air. How much this will affect the system if the ground is unusually warm and then it snows heavily is anyone's guess, although if its really cold water ice does always start forming in my experience anyway. If the ground really was that warm it would be melting the snow pack from the bottom and that would also cool the ground / ground water down.
Post edited at 16:52
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