UKC

Before I got into winter climbing I did a fair bit of research into avalanche risks/hazards, and what I found out kind of dampened my willingness to venture out afterwards. I would read the reports posted on the avalanche reporting sites when planning a trip to Scotland to decide where to go. It seemed that there was always some risk of an avalanche although small. However I thought with experience and testing snow pack I could mitigate these risks. I think I also may have but too much into the idea of experience being able to negate certain winter risks. I am now not so sure you can. With this in mind why do we still do it? (I am planning on going up in feb during reading week).

In reply to andrew breckill:
Learning about avalanche risks means you won't choose to walk across that convex 40 degree slope in wind slab conditions. But it won't prevent a rock falling from higher up and triggering an avalanche on the slope you thought (and tested) was safe. It's just nature of the mountains in winter and being aware doesn't remove the risks.

I'd rather have the knowledge so I avoid that slope rather than be ignorant of it but that's my personal choice.

...and I do it all because I love it!

In reply to andrew breckill:

I've just done an excellent avalanche course.

"Snow is the question, terrain is the answer"

eg slopes below 30 degrees, wind scoured slopes, ridges. all pretty safe. the Sais forecasts are excellent look at your map and apply the compass rose risk picture to the terrain.

The snow might scupper plan A but there is always a plan B C or D.

regards
Alasdair

In reply to andrew breckill:
You can't really negate the risk completely but you can manage it.

You can certainly help make it lot safer by heading to crags with aspects / heights (for climbing approach and descent) that are a lower risk in the forecast ( / your judgement). Avoid rigid plans in the hope you'll turn back if it looks dodgy IMO. Also you'll tend to find firmer, icier and better conditions on the lower risk aspects.

If all aspects with climbing look considerable risk or higher then you need to make a judgement call if you should go out. I often will as long as I think it won't be high in the considerable risk category or more, but then I mitigate ascent/ approach / route choice to lower the risk. Remember not all climbs have any snow pitches and some rarely have a cornice and many crags you can descend a ridge. You still likely have the crag aprons to deal with though!

Its definitely worth making sure you understand how wind slab and cornices form, when they are likely to fail. What makes them safer, what wind slab looks feels (and sounds like - it often squeaks to walk on an is firmer than normal snow but not bone hard). Digging pits does help give you an idea of the risk and helps with the learning process, but unless you dig them impracticably deep and often, they won't give you a very accurate picture of safety for your whole day, I think you are normally better planning a winter day well than relying on digging pits and also keeping your eyes open and seeing the clues of the landscape around you.

In reply to alasdair19:

AAA course? Sounds like a quote from their syllabus! Great courses!

Cheers,

Stu

In reply to CurlyStevo:

Cheers for that input very useful.

One thing I didn't ask originally but is part of the question I wanted to ask is when/how do people make the call go/no go? what tips the balance? In my youth I ignored all danger signs as I sought out risk (not just in climbing but that's another story) I know some might scoff at the idea of a kind of risk assessment, does anyone do it before venturing out even just a quick mental weigh up the odds? I do a initial one before setting out for the drive and another when I get to the venue, I have turned back on occasion, but I wonder if age is now making me too cautious.

In reply to andrew breckill:

It's a continuous process; in the weeks throughout the season, understanding the evolution of the snowpack. In the days before the outing, understanding recent weather and prevailing conditions. The night before, a stock-check of the latest avalanche forecast, weather forecast, snow history and plans. On the hill, observation of current conditions, elements of terrain, experience and condition of partners, weather, progress according to plan etc etc.

For my personal take on it, one can never completely remove the risk (except by only going out in summer...). I see it as a combination of risk factors, for example the weekend before last I was out by myself and had the following:

About to cross a 35 degree or so snow field
On a category 2/3 risk aspect
On a convex slope
Above a cliff band
In a whiteout with windblown snow rapidly covering my tracks
By myself

There's 6 risk factors there that added up to a change of plan for my day. However, this weekend, I had the following:

At the top of a category 3 risk aspect
45 degree slope of windblown snow
On a concave slope
No terrain trap / no-fall terrain
In good weather
With a partner

That's 2 risk factors - I skiied it and had a whale of a time. By the forecast alone, the latter was the more dangerous, but by combination of risk factors the former was by far the more risky. Don't get my wrong - I could have crossed the dodgy slope before and been fine, and I could have been avalanched on the less-dodgy slope; however I hope this shows at least what goes through my mind (for better or for worse - I have no formal training).

In reply to andrew breckill:



Those of us who are lucky enough to have enticing mountainous country a few tens of miles away in any direction have the luxury of being able to make the call on the basis of the compass point with the least risk. And there's always tomorrow. Those making a long journey to the hill are in a harder place.

If Plan A involves a 150 or 350 mile journey then extend your life expectancy by not focussing too much on one objective.

If Plan A was a Grade III ice route then it is probably less of a wrench for you to switch to Plan B repeating a Grade II ridge with a safe approach than if you had a Grade VII in your sites but in either case it just has to be done. What else is there to do? Maybe there is a great looking hill over there that is less than 914m and has a scoured safe approach! Do you ski? Maybe you could learn today instead of auto-switching to Plan Z where you buy too much coffee, too much cake and a map you didn't need! Frozen waterfalls? Frozen cuttings? Climbing walls? Ski touring? Mountain biking? ...

In reply to Jim Fraser:

<Those making a long journey to the hill are in a harder place>
I'd agree; the tendency for some is to escalate the risk based on the distance travelled. I wouldn't say 'we've all done it - but quite a few of us have - I sometimes reflect on 'bad' days in Scotland or further south in my earlier years: however did I steer clear of the danger that my inexperience (yes) but often my over-enthusiasm & stupidity put me in?

In reply to andrew breckill:

It's a tricky one....its a gut feeling for me. I've often dug a test square and found the snow sheets off but still carried on, other times I just don't feel like it and back off. I sat in on a lecture at Glenmore lodge once and they said that statistics on avalanche deaths suggest that experience people are just as likely to get caught as novices. Winter climbing is dangerous which is part of the attraction I suppose, when I start rock climbing again after a good winter I always think how easy and safe normal cragging is in comparison. All relative I suppose