UKC

The pound is losing value against the Australian and American dollar. Why is it gaining strength over the EUR? Or have I misunderstood that. Either way, the GBP/EUR pair is going the other way to the GBP/AUD and GBP/USD pairs. Why?

http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=AUD&to=GBP&view=1Y
http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=USD&to=GBP&view=1Y
http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=GBP&to=EUR&view=1Y

In reply to NottsRich:

The GBP has lost strength against the euro hasn't it?

It was almost 1:1 (it was about 95p) a few years back, then went back to closer to almost being the USD (60p) and is now moving back so a euro is around 75-80p

In reply to NottsRich:

The Pound is falling against all 3 currencies. To compare the 3 you'll need to set the graphs in a consistent way, GBP-Other Currency I find gives the most intuitive result in this case (The pound is falling, the graph is also 'falling' downwards)

In reply to NottsRich:

Look at the text of the URLs you have posted. For the first two GBP is on the right, for the last it is on the left. The order determines whether the graph goes up or down (for a given change).

In reply to NottsRich:

Euro is generally considered to be falling out of bed in the medium term (witness current account deficit and ECB policy and potential policy actions.)

It was bolstered at times earlier this year when risk sentiment was low as it is seen somewhat of a safe haven after the yen and perhaps the swiss franc. When risk is 'back on' the euro will fall in all it's pairings.

AUD also has it's own S&D forces around commodities, with a disconnect to the euro and £ in this respect.

So you have multiple market forces at work which can only be assessed on an individual paring basis, whilst taking into a account a macro overview.

In reply to ClimberEd:



it might fall but the GBP is going to be all over the place until the referendum. We saw that with the Scottish referendum.

In reply to Roadrunner5:


Just to clarify, the 'it' in my post as you quoted is the Euro, not the £.

Perhaps I should have explicitly agreed with the original point the the £ is going to be up and down like a yoyo with a tendency towards hard down if there is a hint of an exit.

In reply to NottsRich:

the euro has strengthened against the pound pretty much consistently from mid November (0.70) to (0.7816) today. Others are correct, the leading currency dictates the reading of the graph. So if EURGBP graph goes up, then euro is strengthening. If GBPUSD graph goes down then USD is strengthening....make sense?

Whilst BREXIT fears will have an effect on sterling pairs, there are many other factors at play (interest rate policy/forward guidance/manufacturing data) and that relates to both currencies, not just sterling.

INterestingly, whilst searching for headlines for their narratives yesterday all the papers played on the sterling intra day fall (happens all the time) and didn't point out that the FTSE was up.

In reply to NottsRich:

The Pound Sterling is a highly volatile currency. It has been like that for a very long time. Why would it be otherwise? The British make it pretty well known across the world that they have a childish attitude to money and investment.

In reply to everyone:

I made a stupid mistake in my question (getting the GBP/EUR pair around the wrong way on the graph) and no one has taken the piss! Thanks, seriously!

Anyway, ignoring my silly mistake, thanks for the information about it. I've been keeping an eye on the GBP/AUD pair as I've got a little bit of Aus money from travelling that I want to bring back over here, I'm just waiting for the right time. Now is better than it's been in a long time, but how much longer do I wait before I transfer it! Impossible question, but that was why I was wondering in the first place. If the GBP is weakening against most major currencies then I'm happy to wait a little longer...

In reply to NottsRich:

I'm in the inverse position (moving GBP to Aus) personally I am holding out until after June - hoping for an In vote. Other wise I'm screwed.

Cheers
LD

In reply to NottsRich:

When I moved back from NZ we lost the best part of 1000 quid when the NZ dollar crashed just as we were moving.. but we needed cash to relocate and buy a house/car so had to shift the money then.

In reply to NottsRich:

The value of the $Au against the £ has varied between 39p and 68p over the past ten years, it's currently moving up after hitting lows in mid 2015.

I wouldn't read too much into it.

In reply to Big Ger:


You're not too bright are you?

You just said that the value has varied by 100% in the past ten years, that means that for people considering when to transfer assets there is lots to consider regarding timing.

LD

In reply to Big Ger:
Do you think it's just random then?

In reply to NottsRich:

One thing to remember is not to get blinded by the UK story and forget the Aussie story (falling demand for aggregates/commodities from a slowing China). So whilst the pound is currently under stress, more bad news out of China will not help your conversion rate. You're are right, timing is the impossible art

In reply to NottsRich:

Alot of people have lost money on betting on currency movements and if you find anything that works tell everybody. We would all like to know.

I deal with curreny virtually every day ( I sell products in US $ and Euros). my advice for small amounts- do not wait, just get on and do it.

In reply to neilh:

If I had 'got on and done it' 6 months ago I would have lost a significant (to me) amount of GBP compared to if I did it now. I would rather time it as best I can.

In reply to Bjartur i Sumarhus:

Thanks for the reminder about China and Australian industries, I'll keep an eye on that too.

In reply to NottsRich:

I have seen too many people hang on and in the end lose money. And you are only saying this with hindsight not foresight.

In reply to Jim Fraser:

How do you mean?

In reply to neilh:

I once saw a TV documentary about day traders. The majority of them lost money, but a couple of currency traders were making pretty reasonable money. As far as I could gather, their secret was to rigorously apply a pretty small stop-loss margin - obviously, if you can guarantee that you will never lose more than x% and the upside is unlimited the opportunity to make money does exist. But they still seemed to be making bets rather than acting on reasoned analysis of the currencies that they traded.