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If we vote for Brexit

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 Rob Exile Ward 23 Feb 2016
WTF will be the status of all the EU migrants and their families who are already here?

Just asking.

 Mountain Llama 23 Feb 2016
In reply to Rob Exile Ward:

if we wish the country to keep operating ok, I would assume they need to stay........
 summo 23 Feb 2016
In reply to Rob Exile Ward:

I guess they will remain or their status could change and they'll be awarded something like a 3 year work permit, or study visa etc.. or some other new permit dreamt up for those already in country from the EU. Switzerland for example after voting out EU migration measures, now buys places at EU universities on eurasmus exchanges etc.. everything is fixable.
 john arran 23 Feb 2016
In reply to summo:

Everything is fixable ... even these things that don't need fixing!
 Mr Lopez 23 Feb 2016
In reply to Rob Exile Ward:

My best guess... When the UK gives notice to the EU that it wants out a 2 year clock starts ticking, and the divorce is effected on the day the 2 years finish. That's the time given to make agreements, etc.

So at a guess, people who can prove they been here x number of years will be given a visa until that day, and after that they have to proceed through the normal way. I.e. They have to secure further visas, an indefinite residency visa, or UK citizenship.
 wercat 23 Feb 2016
In reply to Rob Exile Ward:

My wife is rather anxious about this, as she's German. All this worry just so people can jockey for position in the ToriKip testosterone show!
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 pec 23 Feb 2016
In reply to wercat:

> My wife is rather anxious about this, as she's German. All this worry just so people can jockey for position in the ToriKip testosterone show! >

Well for what its worth the official UKIP position is that existing EU migrants would be allowed to stay, Nigel Farage's wife is in the same position as yours (being a German national) but then it won't be UKIP that gets to decide, unless there's a surprise general election and UKIP win
In practice its inconceivable that settled EU residents in the UK married to UK citizens will be kicked out.

 Heike 23 Feb 2016
In reply to pec:
How is this inconceivable? I am German born but have lived here for 20 years (all my adult live), have worked here all the time, married and one kid. Last week I was treated like a criminal at the border in Edinburgh airport as I was accused of smuggling my own child back into the country ( I had visited my folks in Germany over the weekend with my wee boy 6 years old) Simply because they can. I even had a birth certificate copy with me, but that was not enough for them. They wanted the original. There is nowhere that this is stipulated, it is total terror/ fear inducing mechanisms for normal people.
Next step - kick people out if they don't seem British enough in their humble opinion. I just feel very sad, I always felt at home here, but clearly this is not what people think.
Post edited at 23:39
1
 NottsRich 23 Feb 2016
In reply to Heike:

What would a government do? Evict millions of EU citizens from Britain (or whatever is left), paying for their flights home? I very very much doubt it. I can't see the general population voting for anything like that, regardless of the government's opinion, can you?

Sorry for your hassle at Edinburgh airport. When I flew back to there a few weeks ago there were 3 customs/immigration desks open (out of 8 I think), and the queue was out the room. It was beyond a joke for an international airport to have such abismal staffing in regular operating hours (2pm I think it was). I'm honestly surprised that they found the time to give you hassle!
 Heike 23 Feb 2016
In reply to NottsRich:

Well, I wouldn't have thought this a year or two ago either, but now I think they will! They way I have been treated recently at the border controls and the way politics are going, it's not very positive.
1
 pec 24 Feb 2016
In reply to Heike:

You've had one bad experience with an over zealous border official. You can't extrapolate from that to a situation where over 2 million people are forced to leave the country, especially ones who've lived here for years and are married to UK citizens.
We can't even manage to kick out the non EU illegal immigrants at the moment, only about 1 in 100 actually get deported. You've really got nothing to worry about. Leaving the EU doesn't mean the BNP will suddenly be in charge.
1
 Heike 24 Feb 2016
In reply to pec:
Hmm, it wasn't one but two bad experiences in one year - they were quite horrible if you were there. Being accused of child-smuggling, said child starting to cry because they are scared, officious people being even more officious. The way politics are going right now I am not ruling anything out. I came here and settled here, because I like the place and we were allowed to, it was EU and encouraged, I happened to come for a year to study and liked it . Suddenly, 20 years later, it's all change and people are being made to feel uncomfortable. I am sure they can't force 2 million people back out, but they can try and make life unpleasant so that people leave on their own accord.
Post edited at 00:28
1
 Heike 24 Feb 2016
In reply to NottsRich:
Oh, and since they brought in these extra security measures the queue is always enormous, one flight is bad, but two or more at the same time and you might have to wait 30 minutes plus
Post edited at 00:50
 Big Ger 24 Feb 2016
In reply to Heike:

Worse security I've been through was at Singapore, some hairy handed dyke gave my, then 16 year old, daughter the full pat down.

Best was in Moscow one time, no one gave a shite.
10
 summo 24 Feb 2016
In reply to john arran:

> Everything is fixable ... even these things that don't need fixing!

I know the eu is functioning perfectly just now. Stable Euro, low unemployment, growth, decreasing debt, less bureaucracy etc.. life is great.
1
Jim C 24 Feb 2016
In reply to pec:

> Well for what its worth the official UKIP position is that existing EU migrants would be allowed to stay,

Will that just apply to working migrants paying taxes, or will that apply also to unemployed migrants claiming benefits ?
In reply to Heike:

> Hmm, it wasn't one but two bad experiences in one year - they were quite horrible if you were there. Being accused of child-smuggling, said child starting to cry because they are scared, officious people being even more officious. The way politics are going right now I am not ruling anything out. I came here and settled here, because I like the place and we were allowed to, it was EU and encouraged, I happened to come for a year to study and liked it . Suddenly, 20 years later, it's all change and people are being made to feel uncomfortable. I am sure they can't force 2 million people back out, but they can try and make life unpleasant so that people leave on their own accord.

This isn't a new thing though. My (Dutch) wife had something similar 18 years ago when our kids were very small. They have always been paranoid about child smuggling. She had an even worse experience in reverse in the Netherlands where they are usually more relaxed at the borders.

The queues are getting worse though and usually due to under staffing. Same situation at Manchester when it is busy.

Alan
 NottsRich 24 Feb 2016
In reply to Heike:

Three flights at the same time, almost an hour wait.
 Andy Hardy 24 Feb 2016
In reply to Rob Exile Ward:

Maybe we could arrange a passport swap shop with UK citizens who are living in the EU?

 MonkeyPuzzle 24 Feb 2016
In reply to Big Ger:

> Worse security I've been through was at Singapore, some hairy handed dyke gave my, then 16 year old, daughter the full pat down.

Nice homophobic slur. Moron.
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 Big Ger 24 Feb 2016
In reply to MonkeyPuzzle:

My daughter was left in tears and felt violated.
3
 lummox 24 Feb 2016
In reply to Big Ger:

Would you have preferred it if it had been a bloke who left her in tears and feeling violated ?
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 Big Ger 24 Feb 2016
In reply to lummox:

Not at all, I'd probably have referred to him in a derogatory way as well. Strange question.
1
 Big Ger 24 Feb 2016
In reply to lummox:

But my apologies for not being "politically correct"* I'll bow out of this thread rather than disrupt it further.


*I deny I was being "homophobic."
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 lummox 24 Feb 2016
In reply to Big Ger:

It's PC gone mad I tell yer. If the dyke was hairy handed maybe it was one of those ladyboys you went to the Far East to see ?
Gone for good 24 Feb 2016
In reply to Alan James - Rockfax:


> The queues are getting worse though and usually due to under staffing. Same situation at Manchester when it is busy.

> Alan

I would rather stand in a queue at security for an hour knowing the border guards were doing an effective job rather than casting a cursory glance at the passports and letting in any Tom, Dick or Harry.

2
In reply to Heike:

> Hmm, it wasn't one but two bad experiences in one year - they were quite horrible if you were there.

You should write to your MP or MEP to complain about the way you were treated. There's absolutely no call for treating you that way and a letter from a politician will get passed down and get the guy's manager on his case.

Since you live in Scotland I don't think you need to worry about leaving the EU

 kestrelspl 24 Feb 2016
In reply to tom_in_edinburgh:

It's something I've been wondering about, will SNP supporters be voting for out to trigger another Scottish referendum?
 RyanOsborne 24 Feb 2016
In reply to kestrelspl:

I'm sure (hopeful) that they'd realise the ramifications of Brexit extend way beyond that. If Brexit were to happen, and the subsequent EU collapse that people seem to think is likely in that scenario, would it really be of any benefit to an independent Scotland?
 MonkeyPuzzle 24 Feb 2016
In reply to Big Ger:

Using 'dyke' as a pejorative (never mind sticking on hairy-handed) not being homophobic? What the f*ck *is* homophobic then?
1
 Sir Chasm 24 Feb 2016
In reply to tom_in_edinburgh:
"Since you live in Scotland I don't think you need to worry about leaving the EU"

Yes, having already sensibly voted to remain in one union hopefully the Scots will also vote to remain in the EU.
In reply to kestrelspl:

> It's something I've been wondering about, will SNP supporters be voting for out to trigger another Scottish referendum?

I won't and I don't think many SNP supporters will. I think it is important to vote just based on the EU question, which for me is easy because my wife is an EU citizen.

Sturgeon made it clear her criteria for calling another referendum is that the UK votes to leave but the vote in Scotland is to stay, SNP voters voting to leave would make the second part of the condition harder to achieve.
 skog 24 Feb 2016
In reply to kestrelspl:

> It's something I've been wondering about, will SNP supporters be voting for out to trigger another Scottish referendum?

"SNP supporters" are a very big group these days - slightly more than half of the electorate if the polling is close to true - and as a result, are a very mixed bunch. A significant fraction don't even necessarily support Scottish independence, looking instead for a centre-to-centre-left party who will fight Scotland's corner, specifically.

However, there are those who do want Scottish independence above all else. Amongst them, some feel that Brexit would help with that (see Jim Sillars, as the noisiest example); many others feel it would hinder it (the official party position).

And there are lots of us - most, I think - who will vote on this issue on its own merits.

I'm an 'In' regardless of what theat means for Scottish Independence in the future - this is too important an issue to play such games with, especially as it isn't clear how it would work out anyway. The scenario where Scotland ends up tethered to the UK, dragged out of the EU, is the worst-case one for me.
 skog 24 Feb 2016
In reply to Heike:

This is a concern for us, too (my wife is Swedish).

I think, though, that it's vanishingly unlikely that we'd see marriages and families split up.

More likely, there would be a lot of hassle, paperwork, and individual expense, and non-UK nationals would have to choose between applying for British citizenship or losing out on the rights and benefits of it.

It seems likely to be much worse news for those who haven't married and had families, and can only be a bad thing for the mixing of different European peoples and cultures. Which is the idea for some, I suppose.
 Toerag 24 Feb 2016
In reply to Rob Exile Ward:

Heike, Alan - don't your kids have passports?
 Mikkel 24 Feb 2016
In reply to Rob Exile Ward:

I would quite like to know this too.
Hope they dont close the border completely to quickly as i will be in Denmark/Sweden at the time of the vote.
If kicked out you think the goverment will buy the house?
 jkarran 24 Feb 2016
In reply to Heike:

> Next step - kick people out if they don't seem British enough in their humble opinion. I just feel very sad, I always felt at home here, but clearly this is not what people think.

Plenty do think you should feel at home here (or wherever you choose to make it).
jk
 graeme jackson 24 Feb 2016
In reply to tom_in_edinburgh:

> Since you live in Scotland I don't think you need to worry about leaving the EU

Really? Presume that opinion is based on the utter shite* sturgeon keeps coming out with?

*on a par with her 'Scotland wants to leave the UK assertions a coupe of years ago'.

It would be so much more accurate if she prefixed all her comments with 'Some of'.



 Rob Parsons 24 Feb 2016
In reply to graeme jackson:

> Really? Presume that opinion is based on the utter shite* sturgeon keeps coming out with?

Opinion polls seem to show that a majority of Scottish voters (and, also, London voters, as it happens) want to stay in the EU, whilst opinion across all other regions of the UK fairly evenly divided.

So Sturgeon is probably right with the claim.
Post edited at 16:55
 Mike Stretford 24 Feb 2016
In reply to Rob Parsons:

> Opinion polls seem to show that a majority of Scottish voters (and, also, London voters, as it happens) want to stay in the EU, while opinion across other regions is fairly evenly divided.

I thought so (and posted as much ealier) but maybe not

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/feb/24/euroscepticism-scotland-rec...
In reply to graeme jackson:
> Really? Presume that opinion is based on the utter shite* sturgeon keeps coming out with?

No it's based on a fairly simple analysis. Suppose the UK votes to leave the EU. Then:

a. On current polling it seems very likely the SNP will have been re-elected to Holyrood on a manifesto which calls for a second referendum if the UK votes Out and Scotland votes In
b.On current polling it seems very likely Scotland will have voted to stay in the EU
c. With the economic future of the UK and the stability of the pound in doubt following a vote to leave the EU voting No to independence is no longer the 'safe' choice. That is more than enough to get 5% of voters to switch to Yes from the last referendum.
Post edited at 18:47
 pec 24 Feb 2016
In reply to Jim C:

> Will that just apply to working migrants paying taxes, or will that apply also to unemployed migrants claiming benefits ? >

In reality UKIP's policy is irrelevant because it won't be them who decide, voting to leave the EU won't make Nigel Farage Prime Minister.
It will be up to the Prime Minister i.e. David Cameron (or whoever replaces him) to deal with in his negotiations with the EU.
Its quite possible that freedom of movement will remain anyway but even if not, its inconceivable that over 2 million people settled in this country and in Heike's case married to a UK national will be deported.
Some benefits may be withdrawn and a few people leave on the basis of that but trying to fill 2 million "newly created" job vacancies would be disasterous for the economy.
Whatever one thinks of the Tory party, they're not the BNP and half of them want to stay in the EU anyway. Any deal would have to be agreed by parliament, I doubt more than a couple of dozen MP's at most would vote for a mass deportation.
Heike is worrying herself over nothing.

 RomTheBear 24 Feb 2016
In reply to Rob Exile Ward:
> WTF will be the status of all the EU migrants and their families who are already here?

> Just asking.

All depends on whether we stay part of the single market. If we do freedom of movement would have to carry on.

If we leave the single market I would assume the following would happen under the existing regulations:

- The vast majority of eu migrant do not stay very long in the country, so many would leave anyway.
- Those residents here for long can take up citizenship and many have akready done, although I would expect the home office to restrict citizenship severely.
- those with British spouses would be able to apply for spouses visa provided their partner earn more than 18k
- a small minority could possibly apply for a tier 2 work visa

Another question is what would happen to the two millions Brits living in the EU.
Post edited at 20:22
 pec 24 Feb 2016
In reply to RomTheBear:

> If we leave the single market I would assume the following would happen under the existing regulations:

> - The vast majority of eu migrant do not stay very long in the country, so many would leave anyway. >

I ask this out of curiosity, not to pick an argument but why do assume this? Unless they are actually forced to leave or "heavily incentivised" to do so why wouldn't they stay if they've got jobs they enjoy or are better paid than jobs they could get elsewhere (which is presumably why they're here in the first place)

Furthermore, why would the government force (or incentivise) people to leave anyway?
Bear in mind most of the cabinet want to stay in the EU so why would they try to force c.2million people to leave? It would have a disasterous effect on business if they had to find people to fill all these vacancies in a short space of time.

My assumption (in the scenario where we don't join the EEA) is we would restrict future migrants with some sort of work visa scheme, remove or scale back benefits which would have a minor effect causing small numbers to leave voluntarily, perhaps deport some convicted criminals (not that we seem very capable of doing that even to illegal immigrants at the moment) and allow the rest to stay.
Remember, leaving the EU doesn't turn us into a fascist dictatorship.

> Another question is what would happen to the two millions Brits living in the EU. >

Most likely a similar scenario to what I describe above, the unnecessary upheaval caused by deportation of millions of people accross Europe is a problem Europe really doesn't want to inflict on itself right now, its got too many other things to deal with.

 Heike 24 Feb 2016
In reply to Toerag:

Yes, they do and it is still not enough which is what amazes me. You have to fill in all the info of parents etc. So why the problem? No idea.
 Rob Parsons 24 Feb 2016
In reply to Mike Stretford:
> I thought so (and posted as much earlier) but maybe not


Thanks for the link; interesting.

Nevertheless, there does seem to be a real difference between Scotland and (most of) the rest of UK on this. The same John Curtice makes the the statement in a recent blog (http://blog.whatscotlandthinks.org/2016/01/might-scotland-vote-to-leave-the... ) that:

"polling consistently shows that support for Remain is higher in Scotland than in England, and thus the UK as a whole. It therefore seems quite possible that a narrow vote to Leave could be accompanied by a majority vote north of the border to Remain."
Post edited at 21:24
 RomTheBear 24 Feb 2016
In reply to pec:

> I ask this out of curiosity, not to pick an argument but why do assume this? Unless they are actually forced to leave or "heavily incentivised" to do so why wouldn't they stay if they've got jobs they enjoy or are better paid than jobs they could get elsewhere (which is presumably why they're here in the first I describe above, the unnecessary upheaval caused by deportation of millions of people accross Europe is a problem Europe really doesn't want to inflict on itself right now, its got too many other things to deal with.

just common sense, the vast majority of EU immigrant do not stay more than 4 years in the UK, according to the stats, so you would rightly expect at the very very minimum the same level of eu citizens leaving.



 RomTheBear 24 Feb 2016
In reply to pec:


> Most likely a similar scenario to what I describe above, the unnecessary upheaval caused by deportation of millions of people accross Europe is a problem Europe really doesn't want to inflict on itself right now, its got too many other things to deal with.

I don't really see Europeans giving the right to stay to British citizens unless there is a reciprocal arrangement for their own citizens in the uk. Which would rather ruin the point of leaving the eu for all those voters pissed off about too many immigrants.
 Heike 24 Feb 2016
In reply to jkarran:
> Plenty do think you should feel at home here (or wherever you choose to make it).

> jk

Yes, that is the nice thing. I have always felt so at home in Scotland. Scottish people have always been very nice to me and I just love it here, it is my home, but it seems all change from a governmental perspective now.
Post edited at 22:08
 pec 24 Feb 2016
In reply to RomTheBear:

> just common sense, the vast majority of EU immigrant do not stay more than 4 years in the UK, according to the stats, so you would rightly expect at the very very minimum the same level of eu citizens leaving. >

Perhaps not if they knew they couldn't get back so easily though?

 pec 24 Feb 2016
In reply to RomTheBear:

> I don't really see Europeans giving the right to stay to British citizens unless there is a reciprocal arrangement for their own citizens in the uk. >

My point is that there probably would be a reciprocal arrangement, at least for existing migrants, its too much hassle for both sides to do otherwise.

> Which would rather ruin the point of leaving the eu for all those voters pissed off about too many immigrants. >

Except that the "amnesty" would only apply to existing migrants, there would be limits thereafter. All assuming that we don't retain freedom of movement under EEA membership of course.

 RomTheBear 25 Feb 2016
In reply to pec:
> Perhaps not if they knew they couldn't get back so easily though?

I really doubt it, this is all part of this fiction that eu migrants are somehow economic migrants desperate to stay in the uk...
This may be true for a small section but overall on average they are well educated, skilled and from relatively affluent backgrounds.
The biggest attraction is not even the wages, as they are not really higher than other Western European countries, its more our uniquely flexible job market and career opportunities that attracts people in my experience.
Once you need work visa and sponsors and employers start dismissing you immediately because of concern over immigration status, that flexibility disappears and I think most will just leave by themselves.
Post edited at 01:57
 RomTheBear 25 Feb 2016
In reply to pec:

> My point is that there probably would be a reciprocal arrangement, at least for existing migrants, its too much hassle for both sides to do otherwise.

> Except that the "amnesty" would only apply to existing migrants, there would be limits thereafter. All assuming that we don't retain freedom of movement under EEA membership of course.

Yes this I am not so sure how it would work in terms of existing immigration regulations.
Each individual countries would have to change their laws to except only British residents from the rules, not sure how that would work, they would also need to check the residency status of over 2 millions Brits all over Europe. That sounds possible but politically and practically difficult, so
if I was a British immigrant in Europe I would definitely worry.
 summo 25 Feb 2016
In reply to RomTheBear:
> This may be true for a small section but overall on average they are well educated, skilled and from relatively affluent backgrounds.

Anything to support this, Eastern England farming or London hotels seem to be run on eastern European labour? They might be well educated, but it doesn't mean they are employed in relatively skilled jobs. Which is fine, if only the 2million UK employed were wiling to take the same jobs.
 summo 25 Feb 2016
In reply to RomTheBear:
> if I was a British immigrant in Europe I would definitely worry.

why people worked, retired etc. in Europe before these EU agreements. Just like they traded etc.. it is simple scaremongering, they pretend the world will suddenly stop, it will certainly change a little if the UK left, but life goes on.
Post edited at 08:02
 Rob Parsons 25 Feb 2016
In reply to RomTheBear:

> I don't really see Europeans giving the right to stay to British citizens unless there is a reciprocal arrangement for their own citizens in the uk. Which would rather ruin the point of leaving the eu for all those voters pissed off about too many immigrants.

If the UK leaves the EU, then of course various reciprocal arrangements on residency rights will be made. Just as trade agreements with the (remaining) EU will be made. That's just realpolitik: we need pragmatic arrangements with our neighbours.

In that respect, if we do leave, then the next few years will be very much occupied with figuring out and negotiating agreements which mirror the arrangements we already have.
 RomTheBear 25 Feb 2016
In reply to summo:

> why people worked, retired etc. in Europe before these EU agreements. Just like they traded etc.. it is simple scaremongering, they pretend the world will suddenly stop, it will certainly change a little if the UK left, but life goes on.

I think you're simply ignorant of the visa requirements these days,
There are tens of millions of people around the world trying to get to Europe, as a result visa requirement are very tough, ask anyone trying to get a schengen visa.

In the 1950 world population was a third of what it is today and people didn't move as much, you can't compare that with the world now.
2
 summo 25 Feb 2016
In reply to RomTheBear:

ok, you're right, we have to stay in Europe because visas are complex? Those who generally wait a long time are often those with a complex case. If a person has a job from an employer in Germany (in a futuristic UK out of the EU), they submit this and on they go, it's not like they want a visa for a thai bride they met for online and married two days after meeting on holiday. There are visas and then there are visas.

There is also no reason why a proper EU 'workers' not 'job seekers' migration scheme can't be set up or enforced.

 Martin Hore 25 Feb 2016
In reply to pec:

> Heike is worrying herself over nothing.

That may be true, but I don't think it's going to prevent people in Heike's position from feeling that a significant proportion of the UK public simply don't want her here.

I'm pleased to see that most of the people arguing the LEAVE case on this forum are not using the immigration argument. Probably we've all got too many climbing and mountaineering friends from other EU countries who are a pleasure know, and who are spending their time in the UK as hardworking contributors to the UK economy. At least five such in our mountaineering club over the last few years. Long may they remain!

Martin
 Rob Parsons 25 Feb 2016
In reply to Martin Hore:

> I'm pleased to see that most of the people arguing the LEAVE case on this forum are not using the immigration argument.

On the other hand: the 'immigration argument' clearly has traction - I'd suggest it's the single most important issue amongst 'UKIP voters', for example - but it's clearly not immigration by prosperous, white middle-class Germans that such people are worried about. (To state the obvious: absolutely *no* slur intended there against Heike or anybody else!)

Should the UK leave the EU, pragmatic reciprocal arrangements regarding immigration would be made between the UK and individual countries - because the UK itself would need such arrangements. It's pretty obvious which European countries would get the rougher end of the stick ...
Post edited at 18:08
 RomTheBear 25 Feb 2016
In reply to summo:
> ok, you're right, we have to stay in Europe because visas are complex? Those who generally wait a long time are often those with a complex case. If a person has a job from an employer in Germany (in a futuristic UK out of the EU), they submit this and on they go, it's not like they want a visa for a thai bride they met for online and married two days after meeting on holiday. There are visas and then there are visas.

Believe it or not it's way easier to get a visa for a Thai bride met online than it is to get a work visa.

I think you are simply deluded to think that you can simply get a work visa if you want one.

Only a few people meet the requirements for work visas, just the income and skills requirements to get a work visa in France for example would outright exclude the vast majority of the U.K. population.
Post edited at 18:21
 RomTheBear 25 Feb 2016
In reply to Rob Parsons:

> On the other hand: the 'immigration argument' clearly has traction - I'd suggest it's the single most important issue amongst 'UKIP voters', for example - but it's clearly not immigration by prosperous, white middle-class Germans that such people are worried about. (To state the obvious: absolutely *no* slur intended there against Heike or anybody else!)

What they don't realise is that those middle class migrants are pretty much as representative of eu immigration as those doing elementary jobs.
That's what the immigration statistics suggest anyway.
1
 summo 25 Feb 2016
In reply to RomTheBear:

Well France is special, in all respects.
 RomTheBear 25 Feb 2016
In reply to summo:

> Well France is special, in all respects.

Not at all in this respect, their work visa is pretty similar to what you get around Europe, and probably even easier to get than the U.K tier2 visa.
 pec 25 Feb 2016
In reply to Martin Hore:

> That may be true, but I don't think it's going to prevent people in Heike's position from feeling that a significant proportion of the UK public simply don't want her here. >

Whilst there will always be a few, I don't think most people have any objection to people like Heike, its just that they don't think its sustainable to let in another 300,000+ every year.





1
 Martin Hore 25 Feb 2016
In reply to pec:

> Whilst there will always be a few, I don't think most people have any objection to people like Heike, its just that they don't think its sustainable to let in another 300,000+ every year.

A long time ago, in the 70's, I was form tutor to a group of sixth formers. One of them was black - a middle class, hard-working, popular student - and very black. He complained to me privately about the level of racism amongst the group. He was really upset. I challenged some of the others in the group, ones I knew were inclined to be racist. They responded "He's not really black - he's our friend. We don't have any objection to him - it's the other 300,000 c--ns in London we can't stand".

I've paraphrased slightly, but not much. It's not a conversation I've ever forgotten

Martin
 pec 25 Feb 2016
In reply to Martin Hore:
Very interesting, but how does that relate to concerns that over 300,000 people arriving every year (who are mostly visibly indistinguishable from "native" Britons anyway) who all need houses, healthcare, transport, schools for their kids etc is unsustainable in one of the most densely populated countries in the world?
 Martin Hore 25 Feb 2016
In reply to pec:

> Very interesting, but how does that relate to concerns that over 300,000 people arriving every year (who are mostly visibly indistinguishable from "native" Britons anyway) who all need houses, healthcare, transport, schools for their kids etc is unsustainable in one of the most densely populated countries in the world?

I'd like to respond to almost every point in the above, but bed-time beckons! I agree that people do have genuine concerns about the numbers of immigrants that the UK can accept, but a lot of the concerns are I fear based on an undercurrent of racism, or tribalism, which is probably inherent in how we've evolved as humans, but which I'd like to think we do, individually and collectively, have the capability to control if we choose.

Martin
1
Jim C 26 Feb 2016
In reply to Martin Hore:

Have you noticed how many people that are second generation immigrants that want the government to shut the door to further immigration(now that they are in.)It is not necessarily racist motivations, but self interest.

I have friends that have come into the UK , the hard way from out with the EU, (it is not as easy as it is sometimes made out) to follow the rules and be accepted. )
They then get entry and see people walking in and in some cases/areas ,despite working, putting pressure on infrastructure, schools etc. and THEY see that we have unsustainable lack of control here.





In reply to Jim C:

Self interest has now infected the EU. Austria has defied Germany over the migrant crisis.

"The decision by Austria and nine Balkan states to unilaterally choke off the flow of migrants across their borders has prompted fury in Berlin….But the new border controls have ironically had one positive effect for Ms Merkel: the number of asylum-seekers crossing the border into Germany has plunged. On Wednesday there were only 140, compared with more than 2,000 a day at the start of last week.......It is not just the substance of Austria’s policy shift that has angered Berlin but the manner in which it is being carried out. The new border clampdown was agreed at a meeting in Vienna of countries along the so-called “West Balkan route” to which Germany was not even invited."

That last sentence is telling. Can someone remind me what the U in EU stands for? Sounds like Merkel is being served back some of her own medicine. No schadenfreud here...honest
 summo 26 Feb 2016
In reply to pec:

But, why do people come? Plenty of unskilled low paid work? Despite having a few million brits unemployed? Seems a little odd.

The problem is cause and effect. The UK wants to buy everything as cheap as possible, so labour wages are forced down etc.. but what about the unemployed or low paid - let's give them benefits to help their standard of living.. perhaps if wages are forced up, people pay more for products, then over a decade or so benefits can be pushed down, then British people will take the jobs they are currently unwilling or financially unable to do.

But the population will need to buy UK goods and pay more for them, but that's national loyalty, we have the opposite now. People moan about migration, but then deliberately buy a cheap product that has never touched a British hand.
 krikoman 26 Feb 2016
In reply to pec:

> ...... one of the most densely populated countries in the world?

51st in the list.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_and_territories_by_populati...
1
 knthrak1982 26 Feb 2016
In reply to tom_in_edinburgh:

> c. With the economic future of the UK and the stability of the pound in doubt following a vote to leave the EU voting No to independence is no longer the 'safe' choice. That is more than enough to get 5% of voters to switch to Yes from the last referendum.

No might not be 'safe' but why would Yes be any safer here? What currency would the Yes campaign be suggesting an independent Scotland use? Would Scotland simply remain in the EU as it breaks away from the UK, which in turn breaks away from the EU? Don't think this is clear.
 Mike Stretford 26 Feb 2016
In reply to krikoman: I'm surprised we are that high, and if you strip out city states and dependencies ect I think Pec's point stands. The regions people are attracted would come near the top of that list.

Not anti-immigration just pro-fact. No good for anybody if there's a 'head in the sand attitude' to resources and infrastructure.
Gone for good 26 Feb 2016
In reply to Bjartur i Sumarhus:

Yes and Greece has withdrawn its ambassador to Austria due to the Greeks not being invited either despite being the jumping off point for most of the refugees.
Jimbo W 26 Feb 2016
In reply to knthrak1982:

> No might not be 'safe' but why would Yes be any safer here? What currency would the Yes campaign be suggesting an independent Scotland use? Would Scotland simply remain in the EU as it breaks away from the UK, which in turn breaks away from the EU? Don't think this is clear.

I doesn't need to be "safer"? It rather means having leapt into the dark, the "its a leap into the dark" argument from those critical of Scottish independence would hold a lot less water. Personally, if Scotland were to do that I think they should try to have their cake and eat it with an entirely new currency (which is essential to facilitate the devaluation required) and an attempt to rejoin the EU with terms similar to that of the UK currently, or akin to Cameron's renegotiation.
 krikoman 26 Feb 2016
In reply to Mike Stretford:

> I'm surprised we are that high, and if you strip out city states and dependencies ect I think Pec's point stands. The regions people are attracted would come near the top of that list.

> Not anti-immigration just pro-fact. No good for anybody if there's a 'head in the sand attitude' to resources and infrastructure.

I take the point but we're hardly busting at the seems are we, density wise. Other issues may be more important but I'm not convinced we're full or there's no room left because we're one of the most densely populated countries. If you actually look at the figures 262/km^2, we're not even top in Europe Belgium has 370/km^2 and I had a wonderful visit there, plenty of room.
1
In reply to krikoman: "Belgium has 370/km^2 and I had a wonderful visit there, plenty of room."

LOL

Although I think you might be onto something, The European Quarter and the Charlemagne Building should be able to house about 100,000 migrants when they are standing empty in a few years time....
 Mike Stretford 26 Feb 2016
In reply to krikoman:

> I take the point but we're hardly busting at the seems are we, density wise. Other issues may be more important but I'm not convinced we're full or there's no room left because we're one of the most densely populated countries.

There's certainly physical space, but civilised society needs resources and infrastructure. This can't happen overnight, it needs planning and political will, and an electorate that wants that. Otherwise we end up just dumping the problem on the already disadvantage indigenous population.... which is essentially what we do now.
 MG 26 Feb 2016
In reply to krikoman:

> I take the point but we're hardly busting at the seems are we, density wise. Other issues may be more important but I'm not convinced we're full or there's no room left because we're one of the most densely populated countries. If you actually look at the figures 262/km^2, we're not even top in Europe Belgium has 370/km^2 and I had a wonderful visit there, plenty of room.

Firstly that figure includes vast tracts of uninhabitable areas in Scotland, the Peninnes and Wales, so the actual density in liveable areas is much higher. Second, I think anyone who regular uses the road or rail system, (or national parks) would disgree with you saying we "aren't bursting at the seams". We are pretty full, and even if we increase the population we need to plan for houses, transport, water, health etc well in advance.
 pec 26 Feb 2016
In reply to krikoman:

> 51st in the list. >


Well of the 50 more densley populated countries, there's a lot of tiny City States, dependant territories and suchlike, Monaco, San marino, Vatican City, Guernsey etc. In fact 27 of them are less than 1000km2 so hardly comparable. That puts us at 24th, so yes we're well up there.

Within the EU, and its intra EU migration that's relavant here only Malta, The Netherlands and Belgium are more densely populated. Given that just about all the land surface of The Netherlands and most of Belgium is habitable whereas large tracts of Britain aren't (all those mountain areas of Scotland, Wales and Northern England can't sensibly be built upon) the effective population density of the UK is higher. Indeed, given that England has a population density of 413 per km2 (and England is where most of the migrants come) we're already ahead of The Netherlands (409) and Belgium (370).

Hence I think its perfectly reasonable to consider our population density in the context of the effects of migration. If you want to know why France can build large infrastructure programs better the we can you only have to look at a map to see how much more space they've got to do it. Same population but three times bigger.
violentViolet 27 Feb 2016
In reply to pec:

> Well for what its worth the official UKIP position is that existing EU migrants would be allowed to stay, Nigel Farage's wife is in the same position as yours (being a German national) but then it won't be UKIP that gets to decide, unless there's a surprise general election and UKIP win

> In practice its inconceivable that settled EU residents in the UK married to UK citizens will be kicked out.

Is it really that inconceivable when marriage to a British citizen does not stop non-EEA citizens from being kicked out/not being allowed in unless their British spouse is earning over 18.6k? And if they were looking to stay on their own work visa, they need to earn at least 35k or will be kicked out after six years. The government is hell bent on reducing immigration, no matter what the effects. It's stupid and short-sighted, and has no positives whatsoever, but it's what they want to do. It's naive to think that they would give special exceptions for non-British EU nationals.

I was scared enough by the prospect of losing the right to stay in the place I made my home, or losing access to support should I get into the position that I need it, that I took British citizenship a couple of years ago. An expensive, nerve wracking procedure, which apparently had become even more expensive and nerve wracking since.

I sincerely hope that we will remain in the EU, but I didn't want to take any risks.
 Timmd 27 Feb 2016
In reply to violentViolet:
I'm glad you got sorted out, I don't like what this country is becoming. An EU friend makes a great contribution to life in England by looking into how to make the university she works in more open for people who aren't white and middle class, but she doesn't have British citizenship or earn an awful lot of money. She doesn't know if she'll be able to stay if England votes to leave the EU.
Post edited at 15:41
2
violentViolet 27 Feb 2016
In reply to Timmd:

I hope your friend will be OK. Even the most relaxed of my immigrant friends have now begun to worry and sort out their citizenships.
 alastairmac 27 Feb 2016
In reply to Rob Exile Ward:

If the UK votes for BREXIT the country will become more isolated, insular, right wing and economically uncompetitive. So if you like the sound of that vote to leave.
4
 summo 27 Feb 2016
In reply to alastairmac:

> economically uncompetitive.

any evidence? 10% off the value of the pound would provide a massive boost to UK global exports.
1
 summo 27 Feb 2016
In reply to alastairmac:

> If the UK votes for BREXIT the country will become more isolated, insular, right wing and economically uncompetitive.

If you remove UK and insert Scotland if it got it's independence?.

In reply to Heike:

> How is this inconceivable? I am German born but have lived here for 20 years (all my adult live), have worked here all the time, married and one kid. Last week I was treated like a criminal at the border in Edinburgh airport as I was accused of smuggling my own child back into the country ( I had visited my folks in Germany over the weekend with my wee boy 6 years old) Simply because they can. I even had a birth certificate copy with me, but that was not enough for them. They wanted the original. There is nowhere that this is stipulated, it is total terror/ fear inducing mechanisms for normal people.

> Next step - kick people out if they don't seem British enough in their humble opinion. I just feel very sad, I always felt at home here, but clearly this is not what people think.

Daft question alert but if you've been in the UK for 20 plus years then surely you are entitled to a UK passport by now and if this is the case you would have sailed through the border control?
 Heike 27 Feb 2016
In reply to TheDrunkenBakers:

Well, that's what reasonable people might think, but no, you have to go through the citizenship test procedure (google the test for your own amusement and if you would pass ) and as Violent violet said it costs you a packet - roughly 1500 quid I think - and is nerve-wracking, as if you don't pass the test you have to pay another grand on top to do it again.
violentViolet 27 Feb 2016
In reply to TheDrunkenBakers:

There is no such thing as entitlement. You first need to get Leave to remain. EU citizens used to not have to jump through that hoop, but as of recently they have to fill in that 83 page form in too. The earliest you can apply is after 5 years. Once you got it you can then apply for naturalisation, but need to pass the language test (unless you have a UK degree, professional quals don't count) and the life in the UK test. And be of good character. And pay a shed load of money.
violentViolet 27 Feb 2016
In reply to Heike:

The test is not that hard to be honest, I read the official book and done a couple of practice tests online and passed no problem. Why I needed to know who invented shampoo to be a good citizen, I don't know, though. Hardest bit was to get my signature to look like the one in my passport. They made me do 12 attempts before allowing me through.
 MG 27 Feb 2016
In reply to violentViolet:

My mother (totally British) failed the sample test. I passed just. The questions are absurd. They should be things like what is your opinion of Marmite, with any noncommital answers leading to a fail.
 pec 27 Feb 2016
In reply to violentViolet:

> Is it really that inconceivable when marriage to a British citizen does not stop non-EEA citizens from being kicked out/not being allowed in unless their British spouse is earning over 18.6k? . . . etc >

Its inconceivable because we can't even remove the non EU illegal immigrants who have no right to stay now, only about 1 in 100 get deported.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/immigration/10183826/Only-one-in-eve...
Secondly, if we vote out but remain in the EEA we keep freedom of movement anyway.
Thirdly if we kick out around 2.3 million EU citizens living in Britain now then the EU will probably do the same to the similar number of Brits living in the EU which would become an absolute nightmare to deal with all those very pissed off returnees.
Fourthly it would be a nightmare for UK businesses to have to lose 2 miilion workers and then find replacements for them.
Fifthly there would be huge numbers of very costly legal battles to fight.
Sixthly no politicians, not even UKIP, are advocating that we should do this.
There's probably some other reasons but that's enough for now.
In all probabilty we would tighten restrictions for future migrants and tighten or remove some benefits which might make some migrants choose to return anyway but wholesale removal of the right to remain just isn't going to happen.

 RomTheBear 27 Feb 2016
In reply to pec:

> Its inconceivable because we can't even remove the non EU illegal immigrants who have no right to stay now, only about 1 in 100 get deported.

Current illegal immigrant and EU immigrants are quite a different bunch.
the vast majority of eu immigrants are law abiding and not so desperate to stay, they would leave the country if they didn't have the right to remain and work.


> Secondly, if we vote out but remain in the EEA we keep freedom of movement anyway.

> Thirdly if we kick out around 2.3 million EU citizens living in Britain now then the EU will probably do the same to the similar number of Brits living in the EU which would become an absolute nightmare to deal with all those very pissed off returnees.

> Fourthly it would be a nightmare for UK businesses to have to lose 2 miilion workers and then find replacements for them.

> Fifthly there would be huge numbers of very costly legal battles to fight.

> Sixthly no politicians, not even UKIP, are advocating that we should do this.

> There's probably some other reasons but that's enough for now.

> In all probabilty we would tighten restrictions for future migrants and tighten or remove some benefits which might make some migrants choose to return anyway but wholesale removal of the right to remain just isn't going to happen.

I am not sure on what you are basing this opinion. Under current rules eu migrant would have to apply for citizenship or get spousal visas if they can.
I haven't seen any brexit politicians laying out any concrete plan to pass laws to allow them to stay indefinitely.

In fact probably if they want to have a net migration target in the ten of thousands they'll have no choice but to get as many people to leave as possible, as currently even non - eu immigration by itself is above the targets.
1
 RomTheBear 27 Feb 2016
In reply to MG:

Yes when I read the book I thought someone had given me a fake one to make a joke.
But no. The questions are that stupid.
1
 summo 27 Feb 2016
In reply to RomTheBear:

Also no politician has said any current eu migrants would have to leave, the fact is there is no plan. The exit phase would take a few years to implement and negotiations would be painfully slow.
 pec 27 Feb 2016
In reply to RomTheBear:

> I haven't seen any brexit politicians laying out any concrete plan to pass laws to allow them to stay indefinitely. >

Well even UKIP's manifesto states that existing migrants will not have to leave, no other party with any MP's is more eurosceptic.

> In fact probably if they want to have a net migration target in the ten of thousands they'll have no choice but to get as many people to leave as possible, as currently even non - eu immigration by itself is above the targets. >

Past migration doesn't count in the stats for future years so forcing people to leave isn't relevant, reducing future numbers is what counts.

Any post EU deal would have to be passed by parliament, given that almost all opposition MP's and half the Tories want to stay in the EU why on earth would they pass a law requiring over 2 million people to be forced out considering the hassles I outlined above?
Voting to leave the EU doesn't put the BNP in charge.

 FactorXXX 28 Feb 2016
In reply to Timmd:

She doesn't know if she'll be able to stay if England votes to leave the EU.

England?
Since when has England had a unilateral vote to leave the EU?
 RomTheBear 28 Feb 2016
In reply to pec:
> Well even UKIP's manifesto states that existing migrants will not have to leave, no other party with any MP's is more eurosceptic.

Have you seen any concrete plans of how that's would work ? All they have days if that they want a point based system (which btw we already have ) and under this system most would have to leave.

> Past migration doesn't count in the stats for future years so forcing people to leave isn't relevant, reducing future numbers is what counts.

but net immigration is immigration minus emigration. Given that even non-eu immigration is above the targets they'll have to push up the other side of the equation, I don't see any other solution, just spousal visas and students already break the targets.
Post edited at 10:14
 RomTheBear 28 Feb 2016
In reply to summo:

> Also no politician has said any current eu migrants would have to leave, the fact is there is no plan. The exit phase would take a few years to implement and negotiations would be painfully slow.

No but that's what would happen under current regulations.
Maybe those advocating Brexit should have a plan so that at least we know what we are getting into.
 skog 28 Feb 2016
In reply to FactorXXX:

> Since when has England had a unilateral vote to leave the EU?

It nearly does - if turnouts are similar and 60% of the electorate in England vote the same way, the votes cast in the rest of the UK are irrelevant.

I think this one will be closer than that, though.
 Timmd 28 Feb 2016
In reply to FactorXXX:
> She doesn't know if she'll be able to stay if England votes to leave the EU.

> England?

> Since when has England had a unilateral vote to leave the EU?

I had in mind that Scotland etc may have a referendum on whether to stay in the EU further down the line should people vote to leave in this referendum...
Post edited at 14:05
 FactorXXX 29 Feb 2016
In reply to Timmd:

I had in mind that Scotland etc may have a referendum on whether to stay in the EU further down the line should people vote to leave in this referendum...

What does that actually mean?
 Heike 29 Feb 2016
In reply to violentViolet:

Lucky you, I have tried loads of the practice ones I bought online and I have passed about 75 percent of the tests. You need to get 80 out of a 100 questions right. I tended to get 85 % right on most of the tests, but there were quite a few which were heavy on English history ( now I live in Scotland so I am a bit better on that...) but remembering specific years of battle/names of kings in 1300 or so was quite tricky). Even my husband - who is English born and no slouch - was just getting past the passing line most of the time. I don't think I am uneducated...I have one German and two British uni degrees and read a lot. It is silly history questions that get me and very specific questions on non relevant matter; there aren't many Scottish-specific ones - which unfortunately is where I live...
 Heike 29 Feb 2016
In reply to pec:
> Whilst there will always be a few, I don't think most people have any objection to people like Heike, its just that they don't think its sustainable to let in another 300,000+ every year.

I am sorry Pec, but I would urge you to consider what you are saying. I have not come here "to be let in" or for any reason to "get benefits" or anything out of the UK. I came here as a student of an EU country who was shown the (non-monetary) benefits of cultural exchange in an open European environment where free work and travel was shown as possible, beneficial and encouraged. These were / are the beauties of European exchange. I only wanted to stay for the year. I then liked the place, met my husband and stayed joining the social and economical life. There are many of such open-minded people going the other way from the UK to Germany, the Netherlands or Spain, etc. It is not without heartache. I have many days / nights were I cried into my pillow because I wasn't accepted, didn't get the job, etc because I wasn't British/Scottish, but I sucked it up because I still feel part of this place and people experience discrimination in many ways not just nationality. Quite apart from the argument of how many "we need to let in" I really feel offended by being classified as being allowed to have been "let in". Frankly, we are/were in it together; exchanges, travels, work opportunities, etc. are/were a a negotiated deal on a political level. I am sure I have contributed my fair share since having "been let in". I have been been working here for 20 years - many of which in University and some in outdoor instruction and I have not once asked for any benefits/ been eligible for any benefits apart from child benefit which is 80 pounds a month (but this would have been paid to my British husband whether I was a German, Scottish or any other wife).
Post edited at 22:57
 Timmd 29 Feb 2016
In reply to FactorXXX:

> I had in mind that Scotland etc may have a referendum on whether to stay in the EU further down the line should people vote to leave in this referendum...

> What does that actually mean?

It means what it says, that if Brexit happens, Scotland could have their own referendum.

If that does happen, and Scotland becomes/stays part of the EU, then in effect it will have been England deciding to leave, in the end.

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