UKC

I'm interested in the bookies' view of the referendum outcome. Not because I want to bet - I don't bet, which is why I'd appreciate some simple help in interpreting the two tables linked below:

http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/eu-referendum/referend...

http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/eu-referendum/remain-v...

Does "2/5" mean "bet £2 and get £7 back if you're right" or "bet £5 and get £7 back if you're right"?

If it's the former, then the bookies seem to think we'll be staying in - which is interesting as the markets seem to fear otherwise.

Can't believe I left an apostrophe out of my title. Sorry.

In reply to JJL:

2-5 means bet 5, win 2.

In reply to JJL:



Your reasoning is back-to-front, but so's your guess, so your conclusion is correct!

It's the latter, which means you have to gamble more to win less, showing that they think you are likely to win.

The bookies seem moderately confident that there will be a remain vote somewhere between 50% and 60%; this hasn't changed much over the last few months.

They're generally a better guide than opinion polls, as I understand it, but it's still a gamble.

In reply to skog:


Well, the bookies don't have an *opinion* on it. All they do is take bets, and then lay off their own bets elsewhere, in order to ensure that they can't lose whatever the outcome. That's how all bookmaking works.


In the same way: the current odds just reflect the amount of money being bet by people at large; the bookies are simply reactive.

All we can say from this is that, of the bets being laid by the general public, more money is on 'in' than it is on 'out.'

In reply to Rob Parsons:


OK, sorry, but the betting markets can have an 'opinion' - they can give some idea of the mass-opinion of people who are willing to risk their money on the outcome.


Try Googling "political betting vs opinion polls", "political betting predictive accuracy", or similar, and you'll see that there's a very great deal more said about it than that!

In reply to skog:


I'm going to wait for the Exit poll on the night and run down the bookies!

In reply to JJL:

Interesting, I'll make a few quid punt on out I think.

In reply to skog:


That's exactly what I said: the bookies don't have an 'opinion' on the outcome; rather, their odds reflect the money being laid - i.e. the 'mass opinion' of the people making the bets.