UKC

David Cameron promised a referendum, if I remember rightly by the end of 2017. So he calls it pretty early in that timeframe for June 2016. Presumably as a "remainer" he thought that this was the time when he'd have least trouble getting a remain win.

With how close things are looking, has he done a woopsie with his timing of the referendum and is he worried s***less?

In reply to Michael Hood:

Are things looking close? I don't think they are. I think it looks like "leave" will lose by a slight margin at the closest and that's long before the risk-averse tendencies of the voters comes into play on election day.

No way leave will win. Not a chance. Cameron knows that too.

In reply to Michael Hood:

As I've said on another thread, this referendum has been on the cards for some time. James Goldsmith and his... err. . Referendum party... tried to get one a few general elections ago. Farage succeeded in forcing one this time around and if it wasn't him now it would be someone else shortly. The exact timing is pretty irrelevant, and would always have been subject to 'events dear boy, events'.

The real question I'm starting to think, is not to stay or remain, but how on earth do we reconcile the schism that has opened up in our society and navigate a political landscape where, now colours have been nailed to the mast, old alleigencies may well have vanished. I can see both the Conservatives and Labour cleaving and possibly morphing into something different, with electoral reform going up the agenda as the hegemony of the big beasts breaks down and our first past the post system becomes no longer fit for purpose.

Just thinking out loud like.

In reply to Xharlie:


I hope you are right, I'm not convinced though. Polls have moved towards remain over the last few days, but from a strong leave position. All within the usual margin of error. Bookies seem to thin remain though and they are not often wrong.

In reply to The New NickB:


I'm actually thinking of sticking a few bob on Leave by way of a hedge.

In reply to Xharlie:


There is a real chance that the UK public will use their democratic right to prove you wrong.

In reply to DerwentDiluted:


Indeed, I never imagined it would be this close. There's going to be a lot of disgruntled folk on Friday, however this plays out.

In reply to The New NickB:


Leicester City

In reply to Michael Hood:

It's a cluster f*ck.

I always thought that Cameron couldn't have possibly actually expected a referendum when he promised one (in the same way that political parties of all sides often don't follow through with their promises) and it was just to shut a load of people up.

The Economist this week explains why this is probably the case, but with some reasonable analysis and explanation rather than my couch observer opinion.

So I should think he was pretty unhappy that it was taking place (what politician in their right mind would put themselves in the firing line for such a thing unless they were pro exit) and even more unhappy (crapping himself every waking moment ) when the polls looked close.

It seems to have eased a little now but it ain't over until the result's announced.

In reply to Xharlie:

I think remain still needs a huge turnout. A small turnout will be skewed towards older people, and towards people with strong opinions, both of which will favour leave.

In reply to stevieb:

Surely the Remain side is so fearful of Brexit that the vast majority of Remainers will turn out. Also, young people in the age group 18-24 seem v keen about it (unless reports are misleading).

In reply to Ramblin dave:
"I'm actually thinking of sticking a few bob on Leave by way of a hedge."

I know quiet a few friends who have positioned themselves to make a killing in the event of a leave vote. Markets are pricing in remain when it's really a 50/50 knife edge vote. A professional gambler will take those odds all day long when cable might move 20 big figures or more on friday morning.

But word of caution for any budding spread betters out there though... A stop loss won't help you when the market moves 20% in zero liquidity, someone I know lost...wait for it.........£873,000 (!!!) pa on the swiss peg removal. His own cash! He was greedy and ignored the warnings of taking pennies in front of a steam roller. But the harsh lesson from that episode felt by many part time "day traders" was that they didn't understand that a stop loss is no protection when things go crazy.

In reply to Gordon Stainforth:

Better hope it's not pissing down with rain on thursday

In reply to Bjartur i Sumarhus:

A sceptic might think at times that some people push the market either up or down, to trigger the buy/sell orders of amateurs who aren't watching 24/7, to clear the books for others to clean up later. A one second price blip is all it takes.

In reply to summo:


Never!

In reply to Michael Hood:
....depends how much he is hung up on being a powerful figure - he clearly doesn't need to worry from a wealth perspective if he is no longer PM on Friday.

In reply to Bjartur i Sumarhus:

Just use a guaranteed stop if you are that worried.

In reply to Ramblin dave:


You're gonna need that if they do win.

In reply to Bjartur i Sumarhus:

>...someone I know lost...wait for it.........£873,000 (!!!) pa on the swiss peg removal.

That's what you get for gambling on whether you can recover stuck gear...

In reply to Gordon Stainforth:

I would like to believe so, but I fear the young are mostly apathetic and turned off still further by the appalling quality of the debate.

In reply to Gordon Stainforth:
Well 200 000 of them will be at Glastonbury, and plenty more will forget

In reply to Gordon Stainforth:


Yeah it's the young that have to turnout. Young graduates.

In reply to Xharlie:




You are probably right, just you stay at home there are plenty of others voting to leave.

In reply to Michael Hood:

I think things are pretty close. My facebook feed is pretty much full of remain, and 30 - 40 year old graduates who've travelled, lived in cities and had a broad experience of life

The factory (mostly white working class Welsh) I currently temp in is 80% leave, and vitriolic with it too

No anecdotal evidence available on the baby boomer generation

Thankfully it's a referendum, not a General Election and not legally binding

In reply to Michael Hood:


Can't see them beating Clinton.

Now where was I again...

In reply to womblingfree:



Indeed Cameron could just ignore the result and perhaps 'negotiate' some reforms that the EU will then offer, and nothing much would change.

If will be interesting to see how it pans out.

In reply to Jim C:


Not that I like Cameron much, but I still think he is a democrat. He made it very clear that he would trigger article 50 immediately and I think he most definitely would.
Plus I don't think other eu countries would be so keen on more uncertainty, they'll be looking at moving on with the exit as fast as possible as well.