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OK, with all the political rhetoric on here, time to put your money where your mouth is.
If we do have a General Election this year and Boris is elected Tory leader and Jezza remains Labour leader - neither foregone conclusions, but highly probable - who would you put your money on winning?
I'm not asking who you want to win, I'm asking who you genuinely believe would?
Personally I think both would make utterly disastrous Prime ministers.
But even though if I had to pick one to repeatedly vomit over, I would choose Johnson, I still think he would win an election over Corbyn.
If we do have a General Election this year and Boris is elected Tory leader and Jezza remains Labour leader - neither foregone conclusions, but highly probable - who would you put your money on winning?
I'm not asking who you want to win, I'm asking who you genuinely believe would?
Personally I think both would make utterly disastrous Prime ministers.
But even though if I had to pick one to repeatedly vomit over, I would choose Johnson, I still think he would win an election over Corbyn.
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In reply to Goucho:
Surely you don't need to actually ask this question.
Many Labour MPs believe thay could be reduced to 60 or 70 MPs under Corbyn, hence the timing of the challenge to his leadership. Corbyn would struggle to win an election against himself at the moment.
Johnson, love him or loathe him, has proven ability to reach beyond core Tory voters having twice won the London mayoral election in what is essentially a Labour city.
Surely you don't need to actually ask this question.
Many Labour MPs believe thay could be reduced to 60 or 70 MPs under Corbyn, hence the timing of the challenge to his leadership. Corbyn would struggle to win an election against himself at the moment.
Johnson, love him or loathe him, has proven ability to reach beyond core Tory voters having twice won the London mayoral election in what is essentially a Labour city.
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In reply to Goucho:
Johnson. Although how that's even a remote possibility I have no idea.
Johnson is likely to become PM when he should be in the Tower. He's one of those 'free pass' people, held to wildly lower standards than other people, for reasons I cannot ascertain.
Johnson. Although how that's even a remote possibility I have no idea.
Johnson is likely to become PM when he should be in the Tower. He's one of those 'free pass' people, held to wildly lower standards than other people, for reasons I cannot ascertain.
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In reply to Goucho:
Corbyn versus Trump would be a closer run and more entertaining contest....and even though Trump is thought to be an odious racist by many, it would be tough choice.....
Corbyn versus Trump would be a closer run and more entertaining contest....and even though Trump is thought to be an odious racist by many, it would be tough choice.....
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In reply to pec:
The whole political landscape has become so utterly perverse and beyond satire, that it's possible for anything to happen?
I'm also waiting to see what all the Corbynistas in support of him on the other thread say
> Surely you don't need to actually ask this question.
> Many Labour MPs believe thay could be reduced to 60 or 70 MPs under Corbyn, hence the timing of the challenge to his leadership. Corbyn would struggle to win an election against himself at the moment.
> Johnson, love him or loathe him, has proven ability to reach beyond core Tory voters having twice won the London mayoral election in what is essentially a Labour city.
The whole political landscape has become so utterly perverse and beyond satire, that it's possible for anything to happen?
I'm also waiting to see what all the Corbynistas in support of him on the other thread say
In reply to Yanis Nayu:
That honestly made me laugh out loud.
Re the OP, for some reason, in that scenario I think Corbyn might just squeak it. 52% essentially voted against 'the establishment', so for that reason alone I think Johnson wouldn't be as popular as he / the press / Londoners think he is. My huch is therefore that he'd lose the vote to Corbyn, the apparent man of the people.
> Johnson is likely to become PM when he should be in the Tower.
That honestly made me laugh out loud.
Re the OP, for some reason, in that scenario I think Corbyn might just squeak it. 52% essentially voted against 'the establishment', so for that reason alone I think Johnson wouldn't be as popular as he / the press / Londoners think he is. My huch is therefore that he'd lose the vote to Corbyn, the apparent man of the people.
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In reply to pec:
And during the Referendum, London voted remain while the rest of England voted Leave.
Don't pin your hopes on the 'Big Smoke' too much.
> Johnson, love him or loathe him, has proven ability to reach beyond core Tory voters having twice won the London mayoral election in what is essentially a Labour city.
And during the Referendum, London voted remain while the rest of England voted Leave.
Don't pin your hopes on the 'Big Smoke' too much.
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In reply to Goucho:
I think Johnson would win. I'd prefer absolutely anyone over him, however. I think he is a duplicitous, bumbling idiot who survives because he wings it, lies, and ignores any evidence that is inconvenient, and I can't think of any characteristics that make someone worse suited to governing than those.
I'm not a fan of corbyn either, but at least he isn't Boris.
I think Johnson would win. I'd prefer absolutely anyone over him, however. I think he is a duplicitous, bumbling idiot who survives because he wings it, lies, and ignores any evidence that is inconvenient, and I can't think of any characteristics that make someone worse suited to governing than those.
I'm not a fan of corbyn either, but at least he isn't Boris.
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In reply to andyfallsoff:
Or to give him his full name: Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson.
I just googled that, what a strange name!
> I'm not a fan of corbyn either, but at least he isn't Boris.
Or to give him his full name: Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson.
I just googled that, what a strange name!
In reply to Goucho:
Under the current standards of media coverage Boris would shit over allcomers by some margin. Partial TV and newspaper campaigning makes a huge difference.
Under the current standards of media coverage Boris would shit over allcomers by some margin. Partial TV and newspaper campaigning makes a huge difference.
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In reply to Goucho:
Almost but not quite. Corbyn winning a general election is as likely as Farage deciding we need freedom of movement after all and calling for a second referendum.
I think there's only three of them left
> The whole political landscape has become so utterly perverse and beyond satire, that it's possible for anything to happen? >
Almost but not quite. Corbyn winning a general election is as likely as Farage deciding we need freedom of movement after all and calling for a second referendum.
> I'm also waiting to see what all the Corbynistas in support of him on the other thread say >
I think there's only three of them left
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In reply to Goucho:
Sadly.....Johnson.
Corbyn just looks like he belongs to the past. Labour, and the populace, need to wake up the notion of public perception. Blair for all his flaws understood this. I don't see Labour back in power for at least a decade, the SNP have too strong a hold in Scotland, and their reputation in England is struggling.
Sadly.....Johnson.
Corbyn just looks like he belongs to the past. Labour, and the populace, need to wake up the notion of public perception. Blair for all his flaws understood this. I don't see Labour back in power for at least a decade, the SNP have too strong a hold in Scotland, and their reputation in England is struggling.
In reply to pasbury:
Did you see the leaked email from Gove's wife? The media are reporting it as evidence of Johnson's reputation for duplicity, but the thing that caught my eye was the importance she gave to being favoured by Dacre and Murdoch. It makes me sick.
> Under the current standards of media coverage Boris would shit over allcomers by some margin. Partial TV and newspaper campaigning makes a huge difference.
Did you see the leaked email from Gove's wife? The media are reporting it as evidence of Johnson's reputation for duplicity, but the thing that caught my eye was the importance she gave to being favoured by Dacre and Murdoch. It makes me sick.
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In reply to The Lemming:
I'm not pinning any hopes on anybody, I said Johnson - love him or loathe him.
How London voted in the referendum simply reinforces my point that it is essentially a left leaning city (remain had more support on the left than the right) and despite that, Johnson won twice.
Seriously, how could Labour campaign in an election when 80% of their MP's publicly reject their own leader and Corbyn couldn't even fill the cabinet?
> And during the Referendum, London voted remain while the rest of England voted Leave.
> Don't pin your hopes on the 'Big Smoke' too much. >
I'm not pinning any hopes on anybody, I said Johnson - love him or loathe him.
How London voted in the referendum simply reinforces my point that it is essentially a left leaning city (remain had more support on the left than the right) and despite that, Johnson won twice.
Seriously, how could Labour campaign in an election when 80% of their MP's publicly reject their own leader and Corbyn couldn't even fill the cabinet?
Post edited at 21:34
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In reply to Father Noel Furlong:
My dad used to say, there are pasionate socialists, and there are pasionate capitalists.
And then there are those in the middle who are pasionate about nothing other than themselves, and they are the ones who decide who's going run the country
> Sadly.....Johnson.
> Corbyn just looks like he belongs to the past. Labour, and the populace, need to wake up the notion of public perception. Blair for all his flaws understood this. I don't see Labour back in power for at least a decade, the SNP have too strong a hold in Scotland, and their reputation in England is struggling.
My dad used to say, there are pasionate socialists, and there are pasionate capitalists.
And then there are those in the middle who are pasionate about nothing other than themselves, and they are the ones who decide who's going run the country
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In reply to Goucho:
Make voting mandatory.
Simples.
> OK, with all the political rhetoric on here, time to put your money where your mouth is.
Make voting mandatory.
Simples.
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In reply to The Lemming:
Get off the fence and get your bet on
> Make voting mandatory.
> Simples.
>
Get off the fence and get your bet on
In reply to Goucho:
Aren't we voting for our Local MP rather than a President?
I know that in reality we are either voting Red or Blue irrespective of what Talking Head is on the poster.
> Get off the fence and get your bet on
Aren't we voting for our Local MP rather than a President?
I know that in reality we are either voting Red or Blue irrespective of what Talking Head is on the poster.
In reply to Yanis Nayu:
Yep the Sun had a big influence.
Also now I recall going into Asda just before black Friday and seeing the newspaper display; facing the front entrance there was only the Sun to be seen on a four sided freestanding display.
The slogan was BeLEAVE in Britain.
Yep the Sun had a big influence.
Also now I recall going into Asda just before black Friday and seeing the newspaper display; facing the front entrance there was only the Sun to be seen on a four sided freestanding display.
The slogan was BeLEAVE in Britain.
In reply to Fraser:
Boris does manage the man of the people quite well himself. It will depend on whether any of the mud sticks to him from the campaign. This year would probably be best for him since the negotiations are unlikely to be seriously underway so anything he has promised wont be put seriously to the test. Whilst obviously plenty of what he has said has been laughed at he might be able to spin his way out of it.
The Vine email, if true, is interesting. Really doesnt look good for either Gove or Johnson. That said if both Dacre and Murdoch are brought on side then they could get away with a lot.
> My huch is therefore that he'd lose the vote to Corbyn, the apparent man of the people.
Boris does manage the man of the people quite well himself. It will depend on whether any of the mud sticks to him from the campaign. This year would probably be best for him since the negotiations are unlikely to be seriously underway so anything he has promised wont be put seriously to the test. Whilst obviously plenty of what he has said has been laughed at he might be able to spin his way out of it.
The Vine email, if true, is interesting. Really doesnt look good for either Gove or Johnson. That said if both Dacre and Murdoch are brought on side then they could get away with a lot.
In reply to Goucho:
I think it's actually the other way round at the moment.
Unfortunately we don't have a 'middle' any more.
> My dad used to say, there are pasionate socialists, and there are pasionate capitalists.
> And then there are those in the middle who are pasionate about nothing other than themselves, and they are the ones who decide who's going run the country
I think it's actually the other way round at the moment.
Unfortunately we don't have a 'middle' any more.
In reply to Goucho:
Aye. Im sure i've read there are only 600,000 people who decide the outcome of any election. Given the differnece between the Leave and Remain campaigns was 1.2 million that seems pretty correct.
Aye. Im sure i've read there are only 600,000 people who decide the outcome of any election. Given the differnece between the Leave and Remain campaigns was 1.2 million that seems pretty correct.
In reply to Goucho:
Maybe there will be a third option:
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/staggers/2016/06/green-party-calls-lab...
Maybe there will be a third option:
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/staggers/2016/06/green-party-calls-lab...
In reply to Father Noel Furlong:
yes, but the point is you can't identify those 600,000 people because they are part of a tower of millions. All this talk of tiny minorities & non-voters is utterly unproductive - we have a democratic result - something that is supposed to be valued very highly by our society.
I disagree with it, but I am worried that it should be overturned without recourse to the electorate again - hopefully minus scales on the eyes this time.
yes, but the point is you can't identify those 600,000 people because they are part of a tower of millions. All this talk of tiny minorities & non-voters is utterly unproductive - we have a democratic result - something that is supposed to be valued very highly by our society.
I disagree with it, but I am worried that it should be overturned without recourse to the electorate again - hopefully minus scales on the eyes this time.
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In reply to Goucho:
There would be no contest, It's not really a matter of who would win, it's a matter of could Corbyn win against anyone?
And the answer is a clear no, which is why unsurprisingly the rest of Labour are doing everything they can to get rid of him in time for the next election.
There would be no contest, It's not really a matter of who would win, it's a matter of could Corbyn win against anyone?
And the answer is a clear no, which is why unsurprisingly the rest of Labour are doing everything they can to get rid of him in time for the next election.
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In reply to Goucho:
Boris would win, by a big margin. He knows how to play the media and laugh off anything controversial or unsavoury coming his way - one of the lads - Boris could bullshit his way out of the hadron collider.
Corbyn would be making nice speeches to camera whilst Boris pissed down the back of his trousers and made little rabbit ears behind his head, and the country would laugh and vote for Boris. Then think WTF, we just voted Boris PM, what were we thinking of?
Boris would win, by a big margin. He knows how to play the media and laugh off anything controversial or unsavoury coming his way - one of the lads - Boris could bullshit his way out of the hadron collider.
Corbyn would be making nice speeches to camera whilst Boris pissed down the back of his trousers and made little rabbit ears behind his head, and the country would laugh and vote for Boris. Then think WTF, we just voted Boris PM, what were we thinking of?
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In reply to Goucho:
Interestingly enough, only a couple of months ago a poll found that Labour under Corbyn would win an election and be ahead of the Tories under Cameron. It may have changed, or not, but the whole "Corbyn is unelectable" slogan sounds to me like like a newspaper fabrication which has been oft repeated by those paper's readers without actually putting much thought into it.
http://uk.businessinsider.com/the-media-is-ignoring-the-fact-that-jeremy-co...
Interestingly enough, only a couple of months ago a poll found that Labour under Corbyn would win an election and be ahead of the Tories under Cameron. It may have changed, or not, but the whole "Corbyn is unelectable" slogan sounds to me like like a newspaper fabrication which has been oft repeated by those paper's readers without actually putting much thought into it.
http://uk.businessinsider.com/the-media-is-ignoring-the-fact-that-jeremy-co...
In reply to KevinD:
I've tried thinking this one through and I have a sneaky suspicion that Johnson may become the man of the moment. Like Churchill, he is a deeply flawed individual with any amount of baggage - but everyone knows that. 'johnson unsafe in a taxi' would be as earth shattering and damaging as 'Winnie likes a drink'ever was.
But he does have 'gifts'; he can lie convincingly - which he'll need to do, when selling the Norwegian model of Brexit Lite, which is the only game in town; he can credibly appear to be on 'Leave' side when patently he isn't; and he may even be able to deal with the Tory b*stards that got us into this mess in the first place.
I don't like him; not sure that I respect him much; but I suspect I would have felt the same way about Churchill. And we are in a mess.
I've tried thinking this one through and I have a sneaky suspicion that Johnson may become the man of the moment. Like Churchill, he is a deeply flawed individual with any amount of baggage - but everyone knows that. 'johnson unsafe in a taxi' would be as earth shattering and damaging as 'Winnie likes a drink'ever was.
But he does have 'gifts'; he can lie convincingly - which he'll need to do, when selling the Norwegian model of Brexit Lite, which is the only game in town; he can credibly appear to be on 'Leave' side when patently he isn't; and he may even be able to deal with the Tory b*stards that got us into this mess in the first place.
I don't like him; not sure that I respect him much; but I suspect I would have felt the same way about Churchill. And we are in a mess.
Post edited at 23:12
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In reply to Mr Lopez:
Even before the priggish, self-righteous anti-semitic 2-faced little sh*t pretended to support Remain while (I firmly believe) helping to deliver the million or so votes necessary to leave, I think he was as just about as electable as Michael Foot.
If he is still post when the next election takes place Sturgeon may yet find herself leader of the official opposition, and there will be a lot of former MPs looking for jobs.
(No, I'm not a fan. I'll be resigning from the LP just as soon as the leadership election is over.)
Even before the priggish, self-righteous anti-semitic 2-faced little sh*t pretended to support Remain while (I firmly believe) helping to deliver the million or so votes necessary to leave, I think he was as just about as electable as Michael Foot.
If he is still post when the next election takes place Sturgeon may yet find herself leader of the official opposition, and there will be a lot of former MPs looking for jobs.
(No, I'm not a fan. I'll be resigning from the LP just as soon as the leadership election is over.)
In reply to andyfallsoff:
Correct in every word, except 'idiot'. He's extremely clever.
jcm
> I think he is a duplicitous, bumbling idiot who survives because he wings it, lies, and ignores any evidence that is inconvenient,
Correct in every word, except 'idiot'. He's extremely clever.
jcm
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In reply to Goucho:
I never ever thought I would participate in such a discussion due to my loathing of our political system. OK, perhaps all the politicians aren’t bad but I still intensely dislike the party political system, and living in a staunchly Labour area with Conservative leanings I couldn’t see my vote making any difference. But I am starting to think we may well be on the cusp of something different, especially with Brexit looming.
Boris Johnson – I really liked the comment above “duplicitous, bumbling idiot”, but I don’t think he is an idiot, clown would probably be a better word. I don’t see the electorate forgetting his lies during the campaign, so I think his chances of winning are slim. Teresa May on the other hand may just stand a chance.
My vote will be for Corbyn. I am even considering joining the Labour Party if I get to vote for him as leader. Now that I never thought would happen. I feel the Labour Party really messed up the economy the last time they were in power and that’s going to take a lot of getting over. But we are in a completely new world now and I don’t think past performance is going to be foremost in people’s minds when they vote for the party to get us through the negotiations to come, and I really think there is more to Corbyn than we have seen so far, and a chance to purge the PLP may just be what’s required.
I wonder if I can make it 2 out of 2?
I never ever thought I would participate in such a discussion due to my loathing of our political system. OK, perhaps all the politicians aren’t bad but I still intensely dislike the party political system, and living in a staunchly Labour area with Conservative leanings I couldn’t see my vote making any difference. But I am starting to think we may well be on the cusp of something different, especially with Brexit looming.
Boris Johnson – I really liked the comment above “duplicitous, bumbling idiot”, but I don’t think he is an idiot, clown would probably be a better word. I don’t see the electorate forgetting his lies during the campaign, so I think his chances of winning are slim. Teresa May on the other hand may just stand a chance.
My vote will be for Corbyn. I am even considering joining the Labour Party if I get to vote for him as leader. Now that I never thought would happen. I feel the Labour Party really messed up the economy the last time they were in power and that’s going to take a lot of getting over. But we are in a completely new world now and I don’t think past performance is going to be foremost in people’s minds when they vote for the party to get us through the negotiations to come, and I really think there is more to Corbyn than we have seen so far, and a chance to purge the PLP may just be what’s required.
I wonder if I can make it 2 out of 2?
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In reply to Rob Exile Ward:
I can certainly follow your logic, but the big difference between Churchill and Johnson is that Churchill sorted out someone else's mess. I can't say I like the thought of Johnson being lauded as a hero for emerging from a burning building with a baby safe and sound, when it was him that set fire to the building.
I don't think he has a shred of integrity at all.
I can certainly follow your logic, but the big difference between Churchill and Johnson is that Churchill sorted out someone else's mess. I can't say I like the thought of Johnson being lauded as a hero for emerging from a burning building with a baby safe and sound, when it was him that set fire to the building.
I don't think he has a shred of integrity at all.
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In reply to Rob Exile Ward:
There'll be a welcome for you in the Lib Dems Rob. We need a cantankerous grit meister right now.
There'll be a welcome for you in the Lib Dems Rob. We need a cantankerous grit meister right now.
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In reply to Goucho:
Johnson would likely win. High profile likable* rogue in the pocket of the major newspapers. Corbyn will be portrayed as a lunatic on the very fringes of politics whatever Labour's actual offering is and mud sticks.
*Strictly this depends on your definition of likable. Personally I'd put him on a par with other parasitic worms in the likability stakes but there's no accounting for taste.
jk
Johnson would likely win. High profile likable* rogue in the pocket of the major newspapers. Corbyn will be portrayed as a lunatic on the very fringes of politics whatever Labour's actual offering is and mud sticks.
*Strictly this depends on your definition of likable. Personally I'd put him on a par with other parasitic worms in the likability stakes but there's no accounting for taste.
jk
Post edited at 09:05
In reply to Goucho:
Nicola Sturgeon. Either of those as PM and she'll win Indy Ref 2 by a mile.
> If we do have a General Election this year and Boris is elected Tory leader and Jezza remains Labour leader - neither foregone conclusions, but highly probable - who would you put your money on winning?
Nicola Sturgeon. Either of those as PM and she'll win Indy Ref 2 by a mile.
In reply to Pete Pozman:
Once the Labour Party election is over I may well be considering my position Pete.
Mind you - cantankerous - yes. Grit meister - hardly. That's what I'm exiled from!
Once the Labour Party election is over I may well be considering my position Pete.
Mind you - cantankerous - yes. Grit meister - hardly. That's what I'm exiled from!
Post edited at 10:31
In reply to Goucho:
There is one positive that I can see in Johnson winning it.
Both would be absolutely atrocious as prime minister. Corbyn though, I still think is a decent guy, but way out of his depth, whereas Johnson is an utterly odious piece of shit. So if Johnson wins it, I don't have to end up despising Corbyn too.
There is one positive that I can see in Johnson winning it.
Both would be absolutely atrocious as prime minister. Corbyn though, I still think is a decent guy, but way out of his depth, whereas Johnson is an utterly odious piece of shit. So if Johnson wins it, I don't have to end up despising Corbyn too.
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In reply to Goucho:
Not that betting shops are always accurate at predictions, but Boris is now down to 3/1 odds of winning, second to May then Gove.
Each of them is claiming no general election, so they'll just sit it out as PM for 4, unelected years. That's democracy...
Not that betting shops are always accurate at predictions, but Boris is now down to 3/1 odds of winning, second to May then Gove.
Each of them is claiming no general election, so they'll just sit it out as PM for 4, unelected years. That's democracy...
In reply to Rob Exile Ward:
Can you imagine him attempting to engage in serious negotiations with other foreign leaders?
> I've tried thinking this one through and I have a sneaky suspicion that Johnson may become the man of the moment. Like Churchill, he is a deeply flawed individual with any amount of baggage - but everyone knows that. 'johnson unsafe in a taxi' would be as earth shattering and damaging as 'Winnie likes a drink'ever was.
Can you imagine him attempting to engage in serious negotiations with other foreign leaders?
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In reply to johncoxmysteriously:
If he was extremely clever, he'd have lost the referendum. He's clever, but not as clever as he thinks.
> Correct in every word, except 'idiot'. He's extremely clever.
> jcm
If he was extremely clever, he'd have lost the referendum. He's clever, but not as clever as he thinks.
Post edited at 10:57
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In reply to Trevers:
Yes. Because he'll be saying what they want to hear- this will all be about damage limitation and selling the Brexit Lite to the electorate. This they will understand.
Yes. Because he'll be saying what they want to hear- this will all be about damage limitation and selling the Brexit Lite to the electorate. This they will understand.
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In reply to Yanis Nayu:
Or he just thinks it is too risky for his ambitions right now. If he was in charge then people might ask why what he promised didnt happen. Whereas now he can just blame others.
> Johnson not standing! Someone must've had some serious shit on him...
Or he just thinks it is too risky for his ambitions right now. If he was in charge then people might ask why what he promised didnt happen. Whereas now he can just blame others.
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In reply to andyfallsoff:
That is democracy. "We" voted for the Tories and that's what we've got. We don't vote for a prime minister.
> Not that betting shops are always accurate at predictions, but Boris is now down to 3/1 odds of winning, second to May then Gove.
> Each of them is claiming no general election, so they'll just sit it out as PM for 4, unelected years. That's democracy...
That is democracy. "We" voted for the Tories and that's what we've got. We don't vote for a prime minister.
In reply to jkarran:
The plot thickens, Sarah Vines comically leaked (this must have been staged surely) e-mail claims that her husband was the key to media endorsement but he's now going it alone!
Johnson out.........
> Johnson would likely win. High profile likable* rogue in the pocket of the major newspapers.
The plot thickens, Sarah Vines comically leaked (this must have been staged surely) e-mail claims that her husband was the key to media endorsement but he's now going it alone!
Johnson out.........
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