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Brexit Prediction part 'n' ?

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 Timmd 21 Jul 2016

With Hollande of France saying that access to the free market has to be in combination with allowing freedom of movement (presumably to the UK from the EU), I wonder if the prediction is set to come true that once it's left the EU, the UK will have to accept the terms presented by the EU if it wants access to the EU market, having given up any influence it once had on what happens within it?
Post edited at 22:26
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 BnB 22 Jul 2016
In reply to Timmd:

I think this question has been developed quite comprehensively on other threads but the short answer is probably no.

In any negotiation both parties start out with "firm" positions well to the credit side of the "compromise" position that they are ultimately happy with. Be it my daughter demanding two biscuits in order to get one, or the EU setting out their stall, the initial positions are a smokescreen for more moderate ambitions.
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 MargieB 22 Jul 2016
In reply to BnB:
The question can only be developed so far because it looks like the Eu is in a very fast moving position of change itself in relation to events outwith the EU, namely Turkey. I think May has rightfully decided a delay before triggering article 50 not just because she wants a full Union response strategy but also because she can spot the changes within an EU. I think the EU started unpicking itself on certain issues because of Syria and now we are adding Turkey into the situation. The R-EU may shift comprehensively in ther next year and then we can see ourselves in relation to that evolved body.
The" nation state" versus collectivisation / centralisation is up for deep discussion within europe and it will mostly relate to defense now rather than economy.
Priorities are rapidly changing and the EU has to be fit for purpose because Turkey now has the extreme potential of going into civil war.
Post edited at 08:58
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In reply to Timmd:
I know this is a bit 'hearsay', but I run a lot of activity through Brussels, and the word within my contacts is that the EU prime ministers can see change on the horizon and are critically aware that an uncompromisingly hard deal for the UK would be political and operational suicide for them when their own electorate demand immigration control or 'out'. Obvs, a generous deal to the UK would see the electorates of the wealthiest members clamouring for out. Maybe a 6 or 7 country Western European common market? Quite a radical idea. Apocryphal I know, but quite interesting.
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 bouldery bits 22 Jul 2016
In reply to BnB:

> I think this question has been developed quite comprehensively on other threads but the short answer is probably no.

> Be it my daughter demanding two biscuits in order to get one

I demand 40 biscuits from you!

 doz generale 22 Jul 2016
In reply to paul_in_cumbria:

> I know this is a bit 'hearsay', but I run a lot of activity through Brussels, and the word within my contacts is that the EU prime ministers can see change on the horizon and are critically aware that an uncompromisingly hard deal for the UK would be political and operational suicide for them when their own electorate demand immigration control or 'out'. Obvs, a generous deal to the UK would see the electorates of the wealthiest members clamouring for out. Maybe a 6 or 7 country Western European common market? Quite a radical idea. Apocryphal I know, but quite interesting.


Surely if they are concerned about their own electorate demanding change to immigration control or out it would be in their interest to drive a hard deal for the UK?
 BnB 22 Jul 2016
In reply to doz generale:

> Surely if they are concerned about their own electorate demanding change to immigration control or out it would be in their interest to drive a hard deal for the UK?

I think Paul means they fear queering their own pitch in the event that their own trajectory leads to a Frexit or Nexit.
 kipper12 22 Jul 2016
In reply to Timmd:

As on other threads, there are a number of deals the EU has in place with other MS, the Norway deal is the most like EU membership free movement etc with costs but little influence. The deals go down to the Canada and I believe Hong Kong ones with better access but not bound by the 4 freedoms.

Any deal will be bespoke for the UK-EE, and we've no idea what that will look like.
 BnB 22 Jul 2016
In reply to bouldery bits:
> I demand 40 biscuits from you!

USD 2million please. I need hard currency in these uncertain times.
Post edited at 10:14
In reply to BnB:

Calais border under Le Touquet agreement stays. That was "certain" to go according to some on here a few weeks ago...
 bouldery bits 22 Jul 2016
In reply to BnB:

1 biscuit.

4 pence.
 BnB 22 Jul 2016
In reply to bouldery bits:

> 1 biscuit.

> 4 pence.

Crumbs
 RomTheBear 22 Jul 2016
In reply to Bjartur i Sumarhus:

> Calais border under Le Touquet agreement stays. That was "certain" to go according to some on here a few weeks ago...

Likely to go if the french socialist lose the next election (Likely)
In reply to RomTheBear:

Phew, you might be right after all....
 Skyfall 22 Jul 2016
In reply to Timmd:

You're like the BBC, looking for the gloom.

Anyway, I was just on the phone to a French client of mine, CEO of a v large international, who - having initially been doom and gloom about Brexit - told me the French are now talking about the Brits being the only ones in Europe to stand up to the Germans historically and will make a success of it again now etc. A bit jingoistic but funny to hear it from the French. Also an appetite to buy property in the UK still. Disappointed that the French gov't don't seem keen to attract wealthy French nationals back to their own country (who largely left for tax reasons under the socialist gov't) or try to take advantage of a potentially weakened City of London.

On the downside, I have personally seen deals falling through in the immediate aftermath of Brexit. However, this may be a blip as people look to to reposotion their approach and take advantge of different opportunities.
Post edited at 10:58
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 andyfallsoff 22 Jul 2016
In reply to Skyfall:

I don't think we are all "looking for the gloom". However, if you look around, its very hard not to see gloom, because that's the general market sentiment.

I've seen numerous deals fall through as a result of the referendum (I'm a transactional lawyer so I have quite a lot of visibility on what's going on). The general feeling is that most people don't want to buy into the UK because they aren't confident there will be growth in the short to medium term. One or two people are seeing opportunities, because prices have dropped (I've seen major properties where deals fell through pre-vote be remarketed at 10% lower prices), but buyers are in the minority - I would guess that 90% of our current instructions are to sell.

This is all consistent with the Markit data released today, showing a sharp contraction of the economy. And as to whether this translates to people on the ground - yes it does, because there are pay freezes being implemented as well (I personally have been subject to a pay freeze).

So please can people stop saying that those of us who are pointing these things out are making it all up?
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In reply to andyfallsoff:
"The general feeling is that most people don't want to buy into the UK because they aren't confident there will be growth in the short to medium term. "


https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/jul/19/imf-cuts-uk-growth-forecas...

"Britain is still expected to be the second fastest growing economy in the G7 this year £ behind the US, despite having its growth forecast for 2016 trimmed by 0.2 percentage points to 1.7%..."

Post edited at 11:27
 Skyfall 22 Jul 2016
In reply to andyfallsoff:

I work in a not disimilar area but the main area we have seen issues is property deals (which seems to be your specialism?). Which is again reflected in the market.
 andyfallsoff 22 Jul 2016
In reply to Bjartur i Sumarhus:

I have seen that the Telegraph is arguing that the economy is "booming" post-Brexit vote. I just don't see how one boost to the UK tourism industry will outweigh all the losses. Do we really think that holidaying in the UK can keep us out of a recession?
 andyfallsoff 22 Jul 2016
In reply to Skyfall:

> I work in a not disimilar area but the main area we have seen issues is property deals (which seems to be your specialism?). Which is again reflected in the market.

Agreed, property is particularly badly hit (and you're right that is a lot of what I do, although not all). The Markit/CIPS survey is wider ranging than just property, though, and covers activity in services and manufacturing - both of which show a sharp contraction. It isn't a case of looking for the gloom - I think it takes more looking to see the rays of sunshine...
In reply to andyfallsoff:

I don't know, i'm just trying to cheer you up but the PMI numbers also "plunged" well below 50 in 1998, 2001 and 2003 and none of those led to recession, but of course they were different circumstances so only time will tell.
 andyfallsoff 22 Jul 2016
In reply to Bjartur i Sumarhus:

Thank you! I'm fine, I am not despondent - there isn't much you can do other than keep going and work hard (and probably spending less time on UKC during working hours would be wise). I just don't appreciate being told that actually, despite mostly all of the signs pointing otherwise, this is a boom time. It isn't.
 neilh 22 Jul 2016
In reply to andyfallsoff:

I am very busy. Just picked up a good order from India, and a couple of nices ones form the States early this week. And what is even more amusing... I decided to put my prices up not down........

As it says in those reports - if you are exporting - its still very good.
 Skyfall 22 Jul 2016
In reply to andyfallsoff:

Our business is booming as it happens and we don't export and we do, to some extent, rely upon transactions of various types. It doesn't "feel" like a recession looming and I am old enough to remember some way back.
 BnB 22 Jul 2016
In reply to andyfallsoff:

> Agreed, property is particularly badly hit (and you're right that is a lot of what I do, although not all). The Markit/CIPS survey is wider ranging than just property, though, and covers activity in services and manufacturing - both of which show a sharp contraction. It isn't a case of looking for the gloom - I think it takes more looking to see the rays of sunshine...

But the survey covers the uncertain period leading up to the vote and then the week of stunned shock following the result. Hardly representative of the more sanguine environment that has established itself in July. The recovery in markets worldwide cannot, like the FTSE 100, all be put down the fall of the pound against the dollar.

I'm not ignoring the threat to the economy, just suggesting that this data is a snapshot of turbulence that has since abated.
 andyfallsoff 22 Jul 2016
In reply to BnB:

Fair enough to all respondents - I will wait and see. Nice to see that some people are doing better than everyone who I have spoken to up until now!
In reply to Timmd:

I doubt the UK will be able to negotiate anything much different from the Norway and Canada options because it isn't a one-to-one negotiation where both sides can make concessions. The EU can't shift easily because it is 27 different nations and because it already has a ton of deals based on accepted models and if it starts making concessions all the other partners will want the same 'better' deal.

However, I think the EU is going to shift to a way harder line on immigration from islamic countries because the swing to islamism in Turkey, the terror attacks in France and Belgium and the sex attacks in Germany have changed the mood of the electorate. Some of the immigration issues which drove the Brexit vote could well be irrelevant before it is acted on.
 BnB 22 Jul 2016
In reply to tom_in_edinburgh:

> However, I think the EU is going to shift to a way harder line on immigration from islamic countries because the swing to islamism in Turkey, the terror attacks in France and Belgium and the sex attacks in Germany have changed the mood of the electorate. Some of the immigration issues which drove the Brexit vote could well be irrelevant before it is acted on.

Indeed. And a free movement of "white" labour principle might be a compromise that works for everyone in the Brexit deal. Everyone, that is, except those excluded.
 MargieB 23 Jul 2016
In reply to BnB:
I see your point that at the crudest level this is how curtailment of freedom of movement is implemented throughout Europe. It begs the question as to how you get some movement in Europe for economic reasons when services were under duress- but then Cameron did suggest a break system { subsequently watered down} that a country could apply in certain circumstances {perhaps with points system for individuals' reasons for moving} and which ironically may come to be the demand of some other of the 27 R-EU if we add in defensive circumstances , eg civil war in Turkey. I really think the situation in Turkey will heavily influence this. It may then be a situation of similarility rather than disparity of our positions. We could even then re join an EU if R-EU becomes this type of model. Trouble is we don't really know at the moment but I suspect it will change dramatically and there is also a German general election in a year's time that may give some hint of how R-EU is to be characterised.

Of course if Turkey stabilizes then may be back to a united states of Europe going ahead versus UK. Or are we? But somehow I think Junker's vision will be rejected by R-EU evenso......? I think countries will wish to retain a model that gives precedence to nation states than to a United States of Europe- and Eu general elections will reveal this.
Post edited at 07:48
OP Timmd 23 Jul 2016
In reply to Skyfall:
> You're like the BBC, looking for the gloom.

I wouldn't put it like that, it's more that once we have left the EU (if that eventually does happen - it looks fairly likely to), there's bound to be changes within it after we have which affect trading with/in it, and I struggle to see how we could have as much of a say about any changes as if we were still in the EU. With 40 of our trade being with the EU, it just seemed like something worth pondering

I guess you could say I'm a mixture of a worrier and an optimist, I'll look ahead and think about what might go wrong, and then try and make a plan to avoid the worst and more or less stop worrying/thinking about it.

If we don't want the economy and the funding for places like the North East to suffer (which gets more EU funding than anywhere else in the UK), we've perhaps got a lot of ground to cover in developing other trade agreements to cushion any losses from leaving the EU?

I hope amongst the Brexit voters there's a lot of dynamic business people who are set to help grow the UK economy via trade with non EU countries having given things this some thought...
Post edited at 11:30
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 Pete Pozman 23 Jul 2016
In reply to Bjartur i Sumarhus:



> just some ying to your yang...

Staycations? Does that include the queues at Dover?
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 kipper12 23 Jul 2016
In reply to tom_in_edinburgh:

Don't Norway and Canada have much different and probably bespoke deals. Norway is a bit pants, as they pay a lot in but don't have much influence, and no voting rights on the EU committee I represent(ed) the uk on. Canada gets less but doesn't.t get the bill Norway does. Though early days, I see no reason why we wouldn't have something different again.
 Roadrunner5 23 Jul 2016
In reply to kipper12:

> Don't Norway and Canada have much different and probably bespoke deals. Norway is a bit pants, as they pay a lot in but don't have much influence, and no voting rights on the EU committee I represent(ed) the uk on. Canada gets less but doesn't.t get the bill Norway does. Though early days, I see no reason why we wouldn't have something different again.

Canada misses some big advantages.. It's far from full market access.

Pros and cons here

http://openeurope.org.uk/today/blog/what-could-the-eu-canada-free-trade-dea...

They don't have full market access, it would severely affect our finance industry

 Roadrunner5 23 Jul 2016
In reply to BnB:

> I think this question has been developed quite comprehensively on other threads but the short answer is probably no.

> In any negotiation both parties start out with "firm" positions well to the credit side of the "compromise" position that they are ultimately happy with. Be it my daughter demanding two biscuits in order to get one, or the EU setting out their stall, the initial positions are a smokescreen for more moderate ambitions.

That's actually bullshit.

It's like all kids asking for 2 biscuits and getting 1 then suddenly kid number 3 expects 2...

The EU has been consistent with others. Full market access means the free movement of labour.

That's not a hope, that's the reality.
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 Roadrunner5 23 Jul 2016
In reply to paul_in_cumbria:

> I know this is a bit 'hearsay', but I run a lot of activity through Brussels, and the word within my contacts is that the EU prime ministers can see change on the horizon and are critically aware that an uncompromisingly hard deal for the UK would be political and operational suicide for them when their own electorate demand immigration control or 'out'. Obvs, a generous deal to the UK would see the electorates of the wealthiest members clamouring for out. Maybe a 6 or 7 country Western European common market? Quite a radical idea. Apocryphal I know, but quite interesting.

I think we could see change but only change for all. So there would be no point in the UK leaving. They won't allow country by country differences for full market access. The EU is dead overnight once that happens.
1
OP Timmd 23 Jul 2016
In reply to Roadrunner5:

> The EU has been consistent with others. Full market access means the free movement of labour.

> That's not a hope, that's the reality.

I guess if that does work out to be what the agreement involves, there's a small chance UK citizens could work in the EU too as easily as they can do now?

Fingers crossed for that.
 BnB 23 Jul 2016
In reply to Roadrunner5:
> That's actually bullshit.

No, it's a simple but accurate description of how negotiating works. Like Norway, Switzerland and Canada we'll get a bespoke deal that reflects compromises on both sides. But I think there will be key concessions to the UK which reflect changing times and attitudes as well as the sheer size of our marketplace for EU exporters. Germany has a £50bn trade surplus with the UK.
Post edited at 20:01
 Big Ger 24 Jul 2016
In reply to Timmd:

Let's see how the EU weathers the next crisis on the horizon, it's not just about the UK.

> Time is not Renzi’s friend. By July 29, EU banking regulators are widely expected to say that Monte dei Paschi di Siena (MPS), the world’s oldest bank, will need an emergency infusion of capital. That decision will sound the starting gun on a rescue package not just for MPS but for the entire Italian banking sector. Renzi’s immediate dilemma is clear: He must convince Brussels and skeptical member countries, led by Germany, to let Italy inject money into a banking sector in dire need of repair.

> But he needs to do so without triggering EU rules that would penalize retail investors, many of them individual savers who may not have realized that the bonds they were buying were at risk of suddenly becoming worthless. Wiping out the thousands of households that bought bonds in Italy’s banks would be tantamount to political suicide in the country’s charged social climate.
 Roadrunner5 24 Jul 2016
In reply to BnB:
> No, it's a simple but accurate description of how negotiating works. Like Norway, Switzerland and Canada we'll get a bespoke deal that reflects compromises on both sides. But I think there will be key concessions to the UK which reflect changing times and attitudes as well as the sheer size of our marketplace for EU exporters. Germany has a £50bn trade surplus with the UK.

They have never negotiated on full market access and open borders.

We both know that

If they make concessions to us then Switzerland and Norway will want concessions.. Then individual nations.

As said changes may happen, but only across the whole of the EU

Mentioning Canada is odd because they don't have full market access, the single market lite access they got would destroy the UK overnight.
Post edited at 13:54
 French Erick 24 Jul 2016
In reply to Bjartur i Sumarhus:

> Calais border under Le Touquet agreement stays. That was "certain" to go according to some on here a few weeks ago...

For the time being. There's also a democracy in France... People here are pissed of and want it revoked. French national elections soon! I think the UK should brace itself for continental pettiness. It's already started in Dover!
 BnB 24 Jul 2016
In reply to Roadrunner5:
> Mentioning Canada is odd because they don't have full market access, the single market lite access they got would destroy the UK overnight.

That's a very hysterical perspective. This is a time for cool heads. The expectations of the respective electorates will shift during the process such that the demands will evolve over time. Both sides will end up compromising and then dress up the deal as a victory. In fact they'll collude with eachother to ensure the opposite party can do just that.
Post edited at 16:28
 BnB 24 Jul 2016
In reply to Roadrunner5:

Seen this today? Not suggesting it's a done deal but it shows how the game is moving on.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/jul/24/brexit-deal-free-movement-exe...
In reply to BnB:

> Seen this today? Not suggesting it's a done deal but it shows how the game is moving on.


Leaving the EU seems like an awful lot of hassle to go from a 4 year 'emergency brake' on EU immigration as negotiated by Cameron to a 7 year one. Seems like the most likely outcome: they'll offer to tweak the EEA rules a little so the UK and Switzerland can live with them and the 'soft' Brexiters like May and Johnson will claim victory although any rational person would conclude we have put up with a massive amount of disruption to end up in a slightly worse position than before.
KevinD 24 Jul 2016
In reply to tom_in_edinburgh:

> Leaving the EU seems like an awful lot of hassle to go from a 4 year 'emergency brake' on EU immigration as negotiated by Cameron to a 7 year one.

Agreed. Hopefully though it will make those pushing the united Europe project think a bit about how it is going and how to learn from the lessons of the past. I do wish Cameron had gone into the discussions a bit more sensibly.
 BnB 24 Jul 2016
In reply to tom_in_edinburgh:

> Leaving the EU seems like an awful lot of hassle to go from a 4 year 'emergency brake' on EU immigration as negotiated by Cameron to a 7 year one. Seems like the most likely outcome: they'll offer to tweak the EEA rules a little so the UK and Switzerland can live with them and the 'soft' Brexiters like May and Johnson will claim victory although any rational person would conclude we have put up with a massive amount of disruption to end up in a slightly worse position than before.

You might want to re-read the article.

"In his attempt to renegotiate the terms of the UK’s EU membership before the referendum, Cameron secured a limited emergency brake that would have enabled Britain to restrict and phase in EU migrants’ access to in-work benefits for the four years after they first arrived in this country"

That is a long way from a seven year brake on migration as in

"Plans to allow the United Kingdom an exemption from EU rules on freedom of movement for up to seven years while retaining access to the single market are being considered in European capitals as part of a potential deal on Brexit."

This is all speculation. And early speculation at that. But it's more up to date than the view that no deal will be done (although that outcome still remains a possibility).
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 pec 24 Jul 2016
In reply to Pete Pozman:

> Staycations? Does that include the queues at Dover? >

It certainly provides another incentive for people to stay in the UK.

 Roadrunner5 24 Jul 2016
In reply to BnB:

> That's a very hysterical perspective. This is a time for cool heads. The expectations of the respective electorates will shift during the process such that the demands will evolve over time. Both sides will end up compromising and then dress up the deal as a victory. In fact they'll collude with eachother to ensure the opposite party can do just that.

So how could the uk cope with huge losses of our banking system to Europe.

Will you admit we've already seen many investments stopped and jobs lost because of Brexit?
1
OP Timmd 24 Jul 2016
In reply to Roadrunner5:
I think some people see Brexit as such 'the right choice', that they'll dismiss investment and job losses as not really important in the long run, if they'll admit to them.

I don't know how some can decide it's not important though......how do they know?
Post edited at 22:25
 BnB 25 Jul 2016
In reply to Roadrunner5:

> So how could the uk cope with huge losses of our banking system to Europe.

It would be disastrous but I don't think we will see it happen.

> Will you admit we've already seen many investments stopped and jobs lost because of Brexit?

This question rather misses the point. The thread is about what deal we will eventually do, not what is the impact of short-term uncertainty. A month in, all we're seeing is the impact of a shock vote, and, while investments in certain sectors may have stalled, it's far too early to talk about permanent job losses, although those may result from a prolonged period of uncertainty.

My tentative but strengthening conviction, and this as a Remainer, is that we will secure access to the single market in a form that protects British jobs and investment. How could the government demand anything less? This will probably mean that the EU will have to compromise on freedom of movement in a manner that delivers controls which do not violate the guiding principles (eg time-limited brakes) and the UK will have to compromise by accepting a form of freedom of movement that we can "take control" of. Each will dress up the compromise for its own electorate.





 BnB 25 Jul 2016
In reply to Timmd:
> I think some people see Brexit as such 'the right choice', that they'll dismiss investment and job losses as not really important in the long run, if they'll admit to them.

> I don't know how some can decide it's not important though......how do they know?

You're right. But the opinions of "some people" do not appear to coincide with those of May, Davis and Johnson, all of whom have already committed to deliver a form of Brexit which safeguards jobs and investment. Promising is one thing, and delivering another. But their jobs and reputations are on the line too.

I do however foresee those in charge of negotiations having to weigh the value of one industry against another, as you fear, because compromise may not all be about migration, and that will be a challenging aspect of the process. However, financial services, at 11% of GDP, is unlikely to be the sacrificial lamb. Much to many people's disappointment, at least until they recognise what it would cost them in extra taxes/lower welfare.
Post edited at 08:33
 neilh 25 Jul 2016
In reply to BnB:

And in all this " Brexit" calculation there is the economic impact for Europe, there will also be job losses in Germany, France etc if they are not careful.
 Pete Pozman 25 Jul 2016
In reply to Timmd:

A Polish seasonal worker in East Anglia, when asked about the vote, said "They don't know what they voted for." (In perfect English , by the way. )
Nobody knows, or can know, what Brexit means, even if they think it means Brexit.
One ignoramus,on the radio, stated with typical bombast, that there must be a clean break and no nonsense, as if it's like unfriending someone on Facebook. A lot of people can't understand why the foreigners are still here; what happened to democracy?!
One of the reasons the Referendum was so monstrously stupid is that "Out" is just a shout. Brexit could well finish up meaning Remain after all. But if May can call it "Brexit" with enough conviction she'll be able to sell it.

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