In reply to WillRobertson:
> Worth remembering that Novak is the reigning champion from London so is effectively only defending his points, Murray is the one with ground to gain.
No, this is the anomaly that had me wondering if he would be No1 this week or next. Unlike every tournament, the points from the world tour finals drop off before the event, rather than after it. i.e after 50 weeks, rather than 52. This is because qualification for the finals is based solely on the calendar year. Without that anomaly, Novak would still be No 1 for the time being.
> And considering his relatively poor form at the start of this year (Australian Open aside) and Novak's excellent form, I see no reason why he can't build a solid lead in the rankings over the next 4, 5 or even 6 months.
This is correct, and even if Novak goes on a another amazing winning streak, he could regain No 1 after London, but lose it after Indian Wells or Cincinatti
As you may gather I love the stats side of tennis - it really adds context to these lesser events. And when I hear some cycling fans ridiculing the notion of a year long narrative, I have to disagree.