UKC

OK, in the wake of the American elections, a prediction.

Trump has both admired Putin and questioned whether the USA should come to the aid of NATO partners. Putin knows that Russia needs a warm water port for its navy, which is why it annexed the Crimea, and already has a large fleet in the Mediterranean sent ostensibly to support efforts in Syria. This fleet will have to winter in the Med, as Russia's northern will be ice-bound in the winter (which is why it needs a warm water port). Putin will use the regime-change uncertainty in the USA, plus Trump's statements, plus the position of a large fleet of ships, as an opportunity to seize further control in the Ukraine; possibly even taking over the whole country. This will probably happen in January, just before Trump becomes president. NATO allies will not respond until Trump is in place and his position becomes clear; his position will be to do nothing.

Just a thought.

T.

In reply to Pursued by a bear:

I guess an alternative with HC at the helm would be that she threatens retaliation and a stand off ensues with both hovering their thumbs over the big red button? Same with no fly zones over Syria...another flash point.

I don't think any president would be perfect in dealing with a resurgent Russia. Personally I will take the one who is least likely to go nuclear. As it is, we have Trump.

In reply to Pursued by a bear:

Something like that. Basically the "the west" has given up, as far as I can see, what with brexit, Trump and further possible upsets in France, Italy etc. Power is now really with China, and to some extent Russia.

In reply to Pursued by a bear:

Maybe putin will go for the Ukraine but don't forget the Ukrainians. It could turn out to be another Afghanistan for Russia.

In reply to Pursued by a bear:

Perhaps the main takeaway from recent election is that the press and the pollsters haven't got a clue. So form your opinion from elsewhere.

Re: Putin, read anything by Anna Politkovskaya. She was murdered for her writing. By her analysis Putin is a gangster pure and simple interested only in the money.