/ Winter and the worlds weather

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MFB - on 24 Nov 2016
Red hot at North Pole, above zero and sea ice still retreating now
Mongolia extra special cold and has been for weeks
Snow in Tokyo, first at this time of year for 54 yrs
Early snow in Europe

In for a good winter?
Dave Perry - on 24 Nov 2016
In reply to MFB:

I don't know which north pole you mean, but it is currently -25c at North Pole in Alaska, and at the geographical North Pole it is currently -23c. Already, much of northern Canada is below freezing - and will do for the rest of winter.

By comparison, Mongolia is a balmy -15c in Ulan Bator. Some Scottish hills got that cold last night I guess.

Have you been reading the Daily Star, Mirror or Sun again??

;-)
MFB - on 24 Nov 2016
In reply to Dave Perry:
Geographic pole

I have based my comments on reports in the Star - where did your get your numbers
john

just found this
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/nov/22/extraordinarily-hot-arctic-temperatures-alarm-sc...

and

https://weather.com/news/climate/news/north-pole-above-freezing-siberia-cold-nov2016
Post edited at 08:56
malk - on 24 Nov 2016
In reply to MFB:

> Snow in Tokyo, first at this time of year for 54 yrs

1962-3...


DerwentDiluted - on 24 Nov 2016
In reply to MFB:

Currently in Buxton and its neither snowing nor raining. That is a meteorological anomoly.
Dave Cumberland - on 24 Nov 2016
In reply to MFB:
> Red hot at North Pole, above zero and sea ice still retreating now
West Greenland (Kangerlussuaq) currently about "normal" temperatures but for much of the past year, perhaps 90-95% of the time, it has been below normal.

L TheFasting - on 24 Nov 2016
In reply to MFB:

So far we've just had a week with some snow here in Oslo, and now it's all gone. Probably some snow in the mountains, but can't ski at lower altitudes without artificial snow.

It's been like this for the last 4 years since I joined the student alpine club. I took over hosting a course called the "Intro Winter" course where we teach some basic winter camping/survival stuff, and 3 out of 4 years I've had to cancel it because it was warm enough to get by with wearing a sweater and jeans.

My birthday is in January and I always had my friends over while we played in the snow when I was little. Couldn't do that now.
SenzuBean - on 24 Nov 2016
In reply to Dave Perry:

> I don't know which north pole you mean, but it is currently -25c at North Pole in Alaska, and at the geographical North Pole it is currently -23c. Already, much of northern Canada is below freezing - and will do for the rest of winter.

> By comparison, Mongolia is a balmy -15c in Ulan Bator.

2-3 days ago it was -31c in Ulan (I have a friend who is living there who gave first hand information).



MFB - on 24 Nov 2016
In reply to TheFasting:

Oslo - midway between apparently snowy Europe and an unseasonably red hot North Pole - no change sound about right then
malk - on 24 Nov 2016
ianstevens - on 24 Nov 2016
In reply to Dave Cumberland:
You may want to check that. There was a new warmest temperature record set in June in Kanger this year, and was above average throughout the summer: https://climate.copernicus.eu/resources/data-analysis/average-surface-air-temperature-analysis/month...

The average temperature anomoly over the past four days has been c. +3*C : http://polarportal.dk/en/weather/

Also, Greenland (especially Kanger) is only sub-arctic as opposed to high arctic, which is where the huge temperature anomoly (currently about + 12 - 15*C, but as high as +36*C at points in the past few weeks) is located.
Post edited at 14:44
MFB - on 24 Nov 2016
In reply to ianstevens:

the polar portal temp anomaly tab is quite startling - bearing in mind i'm always very impressed with bright colours and don't really know what the consequences are for Kinder

can I just add
https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation
(understood less than 5 %)
Dave Perry - on 24 Nov 2016
In reply to MFB:

I got my 'numbers' from the current Canadian weather service.

If you read the links you posted you'll see that their figures are based on what happened in October ^& November. No one really denies the ice pack may be decreasing but to say it's 'red hot'in the arctic when temperatures are now at their normal for this time of the year is somewhat exaggerated I think.

As for the snow in Tokyo for the first time in 54 years I can't see a direct link between this and using seaweed to extrapolate what our winter is going to be like.

However I can report that when I glanced at the Star or Mirror on my way through the shop I noticed the headlines were something along the lines of; "Coldest winter in 5 years". But I suspect they roll that story out ever other year.
SenzuBean - on 24 Nov 2016
In reply to Dave Perry:

> I got my 'numbers' from the current Canadian weather service.

> If you read the links you posted you'll see that their figures are based on what happened in October ^& November. No one really denies the ice pack may be decreasing but to say it's 'red hot'in the arctic when temperatures are now at their normal for this time of the year is somewhat exaggerated I think.

Air temperature is an extremely poor measure of overall temperature. To put it in perspective - the entire thermal mass of the entire atmosphere (all the way to the ends of the stratosphere, 50km up) is less than that of the top 15cm of seawater. 15 centimetres, about the length of the average willy - and to paraphrase the famous phrase "it's willies all the way down". To think that we've nudged the water temperature even a little bit - is EXTREMELY concerning. E.g. if you raised the water temperature of the top 10m of seawater by 0.1c, that's the equivalent heat to raising the atmosphere alone by 65 degrees (!). So yes, there is a crapload of energy that has gone into the ocean via the atmosphere.
MFB - on 24 Nov 2016
In reply to Dave Perry:

'numbers from Canada'- ok

however the links (Guardian, Weather.com, Polar portal, Atmosphere and environmental research) all seem to say that some major weather systems have all exhibited anomalous behaviour over the last couple of months, I find this interesting and would like to know how it will impact kinder downfall

Tokyo - i understand that the cold high pressure Siberian system is now collapsing and flowing east

Seaweed and the Star - leave that to you
Dave Cumberland - on 24 Nov 2016
In reply to ianstevens:

I have checked, that was my point. Read my post again.
For one to two years, it has been below normal almost all of the time.
For sure recently it was slightly warmer, but that is anomalous.
Anomaly has two "a"s.
In good spirit.
Beware the next ice age.
DC
Dave Perry - on 24 Nov 2016
In reply to SenzuBean:

Thanks for that info. So given the OP's original question perhaps you could tell us what the winter is going to be like?
MFB - on 24 Nov 2016
In reply to SenzuBean:

15cm seawater thermal equivalent of 50km of atmosphere, nice one
aln - on 25 Nov 2016
In reply to MFB:

Why don't you stop the code and shorthand and just tell us what you're talking about?
summo on 25 Nov 2016
In reply to aln:

> Why don't you stop the code and shorthand and just tell us what you're talking about?

a small volume of sea water can absorb the same amount of heat, warm, energy as a much larger volume of air. So basically the seas are getting warmer, which means they must be absorbing a huge amount of that heat, which if it was airbourne would many times great. Record El Nino sea temps last year for example. The point is when do the seas stop absorbing the heat, what will that do to the climate, but also with all that stored energy - even if the world went carbon neutral tomorrow, it could take centuries for the knock on effect in the climate to show. There are also factors like thermal expansion of warming seas which are enough to flood many places without even a wave.
Jim C - on 25 Nov 2016
In reply to summo:

>even if the world went carbon neutral tomorrow, it could take centuries for the knock on effect in the climate to show.

And if we up here in Scotland do our bit , and manage to be carbon neutral this year,what impact will that make to those timescales ?
( can we knock a day off ?)

MFB - on 25 Nov 2016
In reply to Jim C:

My OP was about current weather and possible effect on this winter so climate change not really intended topic

However recently read book (the switch Chris Goodhall) about how exponential growth of PV might actually start making meaningful amounts of electricity. ( my spell check changes goodhall to goofball!! )

I had always though PV unlikely to do anything and carbon economy essential to modern living, of course could all be properganda
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Growth_of_photovoltaics

Obviously Scotland will still be cold and wet
summo on 25 Nov 2016
In reply to Jim C:
> And if we up here in Scotland do our bit , and manage to be carbon neutral this year,what impact will that make to those timescales ?
> ( can we knock a day off ?)

Don't, you can estimate it's proportional impact by simply knowing Scottish and Global carbon output, but as we don't really precisely know the climatic impacts, it's guess work.

ps. I'm struggling to stay on thread topic and not make reference to the volume of hot air being emitted by Holyrood, but MG will appear and chastise me from going off at tangents to the stated title.
Post edited at 10:32
summo on 25 Nov 2016
In reply to MFB:
>> I had always though PV unlikely to do anything and carbon economy essential to modern living, of course could all be properganda

nearly all the energy we use has a solar source at some point. Oil, gas, wood, wave, wind.. the only exception is deep geothermal which is radiative from hot spots in the earth crust, think Iceland and tidal from the Moon.

The trick would be to obtain our energy from the Sun as it arrives on earth, rather than wait millions of years for it to be converted in fossil fuel or obtain more of it from an immediate effect of it's arrival, the weather (wind, wave).
Timmd on 25 Nov 2016
In reply to Dave Cumberland:
Why 'do' you think there's some kind of conspiracy to push the message that climate change is happening, or why do you think many scientists are wrong where you are not?

I can't help thinking that the world leaders wouldn't be getting together and agreeing on changes if there wasn't something in it.

Genuinely curious.
Post edited at 20:01
Trangia - on 25 Nov 2016
In reply to MFB:

I saw a holly tree yesterday with a red berry on it - sure sign of a hard winter
Timmd on 25 Nov 2016
In reply to TheFasting:
> It's been like this for the last 4 years since I joined the student alpine club. I took over hosting a course called the "Intro Winter" course where we teach some basic winter camping/survival stuff, and 3 out of 4 years I've had to cancel it because it was warm enough to get by with wearing a sweater and jeans.

> My birthday is in January and I always had my friends over while we played in the snow when I was little. Couldn't do that now.

In the UK it's been a similar general trend since I was little in the 1980's, only since the end of the 'noughties' have winters got a bit colder again, but there's not the same (number of) face numbing days we experienced during the 80's and 90's, there's been a 2 degree rise in average temperature since the start of the 80's too.

Incidentally, my nose tingles in a certain way when it's cold enough for snow, and I'm aware of that happening less frequently than it did. Somebody on here didn't believe that I'd noticed the weather getting warmer when he checked and saw it was only a 2 degree rise on average, but my nose tingles less often, what more can I say?
Post edited at 20:16
MFB - on 25 Nov 2016
In reply to Trangia:

> I saw a holly tree yesterday with a red berry on it - sure sign of a hard winter

I saw a temperature anomaly of several degrees over a million square kilometres and I have no idea how it will effect this winter

MFB - on 25 Nov 2016
In reply to Timmd:

Bring home all those expensive satellites, we have a tingling nose, way forward
Timmd on 25 Nov 2016
In reply to MFB:
Indeed ;-)
Post edited at 20:32
Dave Cumberland - on 25 Nov 2016
In reply to Timmd:
> Why 'do' you think there's some kind of conspiracy to push the message that climate change is happening, or why do you think many scientists are wrong where you are not?
> I can't help thinking that the world leaders wouldn't be getting together and agreeing on changes if there wasn't something in it.
> Genuinely curious.
I din't say that. All I said was (correctly observed): "For one to two years, it has been below normal almost all of the time."
Check it yourself. Fact.
Draw whatever conclusions you wish.
As I said, in good spirit.
DC
kemmar - on 25 Nov 2016
It would seem conclusive that the vast ice sheet in the northern hemisphere started melting around 12000 years ago. Its still melting, though we are still within an ice age in northern Europe. WTF is the problem that is conjuring up all sorts of pseudo science? Many clever people are being lured into a career which depends on generating more analysis of whats going on outside the front or back window. This surface layer of sea absorbing energy is a perfect example of the shite that is 'up in the air' for anyone to grab and make credible.
Timmd on 26 Nov 2016
In reply to Dave Cumberland:
> I din't say that. All I said was (correctly observed): "For one to two years, it has been below normal almost all of the time."

> Check it yourself. Fact.

> Draw whatever conclusions you wish.

> As I said, in good spirit.

> DC

In good spirit in return, from your posts I've got the impression that you don't think climate change is happening in the way commonly described, which brings to mind the questions I've asked. I guess my first question could be wide of the mark, but it still leaves me wondering about the second one.

Regards.
Post edited at 00:19
L TheFasting - on 26 Nov 2016
In reply to Timmd:

I remember New Year's Eve always being between -20 to -30. A long time since last time that happened here.

It feel a bit sad that I'll probably have to tell my grandkids about glaciers through the pictures and videos I have of them.
lummox - on 28 Nov 2016
In reply to TheFasting:

> I remember New Year's Eve always being between -20 to -30. A long time since last time that happened here.

In what country ??
L TheFasting - on 28 Nov 2016
In reply to lummox:
Norway.

EDIT: I lived a place not too far from here https://weatherspark.com/history/28859/2000/Gardermoen-Akershus-Norway
Post edited at 10:30

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