UKC

Mystic Meg's (or Mike's) Scottish Winter Forecast

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 jimbob1992 28 Dec 2016
Does anyone fancy taking an educated guess about the conditions in the Cairngorms in April, specifically the first few weeks in April?! Due to my current circumstances, I won't be able to head North until the Easter break. I usually head to the Cairngorms in February and March and as such, has no experience of 'normal' conditions later in the season. Assuming we have a normal to good winter, can I expect to be able to climb during the first weeks in April?

I'm not looking for an MWIS report, just a "Yes, the season usually runs through to April" or "No, you daft Southern idiot, you'll have missed the season!".

*Disclaimer: I accept that I risk a number of sarcastic and unhelpful comments from those pointing out the obvious impossibility of being unable to predict the Scottish conditions next week let alone in four months time.

**Note: For those who have read both my question and my disclaimer, and still thought it best to add a sarcastic comment... fair enough, I would have done the same. Happy New Year!

***P.S: For those who are thoughtful enough to be helpful, thank you in advance!
 Misha 28 Dec 2016
In reply to jimbob1992:

Would have thought ice routes high up on the Ben would be a better bet. However with Easter being mid April this year, if you can't get out till then there's a chance there won't be much left. However in an average year you'd expect there to still be some stuff left to do.
 peebles boy 28 Dec 2016
In reply to jimbob1992:

The last few years have produced at least a weeks worth of stable weather round about Easter time (give or take a week...). I've had some of my best winter days out in April to be honest - long days, lots of (sun)light, generally good/plentiful snow higher up. You need flexible plans though - high up on the Ben for ice, lots of ridges in Alpine condition, gullies that start the day crispy and end the day slushy...all possible!

Even if climbing conditions are poor, you can look at putting together some awesome big days/overnights using bothies or tent or snowholes - a full round of the Mamores, a traverse of the Fannichs, circuit of Glen Affric or Mullardoch, Ben Nevis to Stob Ban across the Aonachs and the Grey Corries, endless loops of the Cairngorms.

Unless the rest of the winter goes the way of the last few weeks, I would imagine you'll find winter entertainment of some sort!!
OP jimbob1992 28 Dec 2016
In reply to Misha:

Thanks Misha, much appreciated. I'll hope for the best and see what turns up! I would head Ben-wards but I'm less familiar with that part of the world. Thanks for your thoughts, have a great New Year!
OP jimbob1992 28 Dec 2016
In reply to peebles boy:

Thanks PB! Nice positive outlook! I'll aim for a winter adventure and sling a mixture of kit in the bag! Might have to explore further afield than the Cairngorms by the sounds of things...

Much appreciated! Have a great New Year!
 Sophie G. 28 Dec 2016
In reply to jimbob1992:

Yes, the season usually runs through to April. In fact the likeliest month for the season to end is May, though it can also end in April or in June--or if you don't mind having only simple ice-gullies to climb, September

There's a good essay on finding the best conditions in the intro to the SMC Scottish Winter Climbs volume, ed. Simon Richardson. Or look at his recent Chasing The Ephemeral.

In brief--for some things April is likely to be the best time of all, in particular for north-facing ice routes high on the Ben: think Indicator Wall, Point Five, Hadrian's, Orion Face, Smith's, Comb Gully, Green Gully. Also a good time of year for "Alpine" conditions, i.e. hard gully-ice, stripped-back snow, and sun-warmed rock: think Aonach Beag NE Ridge, NE Buttress, Observatory Ridge. (This pic was not taken in April, but it does show what Obs. Ridge often looks like in April: http://www.summitpost.org/observatory-ridge-tim/148787/c-150801 )

(Sorry, rereading your post I see you're talking about the Cairngorms. But you've a better punt at good conditions on the Ben at that time of year, so no apologies for going on about the Ben )
Post edited at 22:10
 Tricadam 28 Dec 2016
In reply to jimbob1992:

Ditto what's been said above, especially re the Ben.

I know it's likewise not the Cairngorms, but Stob Coire nan Lochan often holds onto winter late into the season.

I think the issue with that time of year in the Cairngorms is that there's lots of sun about, so anything that isn't north-facing tends to suffer, even high up. And the main high north-facing Cairngorm crags are the Norries, where snowed up rock routes predominate. Given the sensitivity of these to sun - even a bit will strip the rime alarmingly quickly - even their north-facing aspect isn't sufficient protection by that time of year.
 Sophie G. 28 Dec 2016
In reply to Tricadam:

Yes, anywhere west is probably best late season. The thing is, you get more powder and less ice in the east, because it's typically colder and the air is drier and there are fewer freeze-thaw cycles. And the Ben in particular has long even north=facing gullies that hold on to their ice for a long, long time, though as you point out there are serious contenders in Glen Coe too, especially in Coires nan Lochan and nam Beith.
 Misha 28 Dec 2016
In reply to jimbob1992:

> Thanks Misha, much appreciated. I'll hope for the best and see what turns up! I would head Ben-wards but I'm less familiar with that part of the world.

All the more reason to visit. Late season ice on the Ben is good fun.
 andyinglis 29 Dec 2016
In reply to jimbob1992:

In an answer yes, there will be winter routes in condition in April in the Cairngorms for sure, and you can quote me! The grade I and II's (as a minimum) in the east facing corries of Braeriach, Beinn a'Bhurid, and quite likely the northern corries, will still be full of snow and winter climbable. Routes also come back into condition quick as the ground tends to still be cold (I can at least caveat by saying the 2011-12 winter yielded mixed climbing till May in the Cairngorms), but strip quickly in the sun. Go high, go north / East, go with optimism.

Andy
 mmmhumous 29 Dec 2016
In reply to jimbob1992:
This was late on in April 3 seasons ago: youtube.com/watch?v=hs4n9QU6VlE& but got the impression we'd been lucky the conditions had lasted that long. (footage of the Cairngorms from about 2:30). Stay flexible on your venue and you should be fine. (If memory serves, we had planned to climb on the Ben that weekend, but conditions dictated we headed east instead).
Post edited at 12:46
 Jasonic 30 Dec 2016
In reply to jimbob1992:

Great advice above- probably booked up but a night or two at the CIC hut midweek is worth it just to stay there.. Route Major another possibility..

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