UKC

The Gov dashboard https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ hasn't been updated yet, the message on twitter is "Due to a processing issue with deaths data the #COVID19 Dashboard update is delayed today. 48,682 new COVID-19 positive cases have been reported today across the UK." https://twitter.com/PHE_uk/status/1349772301533925376

Really?

Now I know I'm a cynic with stuff like this but I suspect that it's gone way high (>2000 deaths?) and somebody's said "FFS, check that's correct before we have to release it, and if it is correct then lets do it a bit later"

And not having the deaths data shouldn't stop them updating all the other bits like hospital data.

This happens fairly frequently, I'm sad and check it every day... this might be the reason today though, who knows! At least we're not in America!

Circa 48k cases according to the PHE twitter 

I think the process for updating the dashboard just might be a bit shambolic or at least fragile behind the scenes; late updates are not uncommon with some landing well after 9 pm.

I wouldn't expect any sudden rise in the actual data (deaths by date of death), but it's possible that they've found a few hundred unreported deaths, the release of which is taking some time to sort out - and will bump up the "by reporting date" count.  There's a significant disinclination in the data for England from 2021-01-03 to 2021-01-04 that looks very improbable in terms of being down to the stochastic factors; it hints to me at misplaced data.

Or they could just be having the usual problems (whatever they may be...) with the back end of the dashboard...

The daily cases number given in that PHE tweet is reassuring - or at least not alarming.

884 NHS England reported deaths, no chance it will be over 1500, never mind 2k... 

Maybe not today's numbers....

IIRC when it happened once before the next days figures appeared sky high. Govt must be well panicking coz total reported deaths tomorrow will include today’s = nudging 3,000, bad headline for them and worrying/ sad anyway

i'd like to see some vaccine adverse reaction data (like the US?)

rather than read stuff like this: https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/12/suspicions-grow-nanoparticles-pfizer-s-covid-19-vaccine-trigger-rare-allergic-reactions

But it's still steadily growing...

Gives hope for 3-4 weeks down the line.

I wouldn’t want Trump but they have Biden coming.

in terms of death rates though ...

America have 5 times our population and three times our deaths

so despite trump we are doing much worse. In covid death terms per head of population would be good to be America compared with us

As of 19 December, the United States had seen six cases of anaphylaxis among 272,001 people who received the COVID-19 vaccine

Yes I think you've really nailed the crucial issue we're dealing with here. 

Sorry, please clarify. Are you saying 6 cases of anaphylaxis in a ¼ of a million is worrying or not? Not sure what you're getting at.

From the BBC covid stats page:

"On Tuesday, the government announced a further 1,243 deaths - comparable with Friday's total of 1,325, which is the highest daily figure since the start of the pandemic."

Given that today's new case figures are 6/3.5 those of three weeks ago, I think we can expect about 2200 daily deaths in three weeks time.

I was being sarcastic. We've got deaths through the roof and hospitals nearing collapse. Where people suffer severe adverse reactions to a vaccine, those cases should be looked at closely so that the right advice is given to those at risk. 

Sure.

I got that wrong then, not as bad as I feared, which is good (in relative terms, still not good in absolute terms).

Interesting, though - I had exactly the same suspicion when the figures weren't released, which indicates the level of our mistrust of the system.

Not looking good is it for the deaths, I think we will see a continued rise for 1 or 2 weeks more and I fear your estimate of 2000+ is probably correct given yesterdays bleak ''low'' deaths of 1,243.

On a positive, cases are falling and there are reports now of the R rate being below 1 in various regions with London being as low as 0.6.

https://www.mrc-bsu.cam.ac.uk/now-casting/

Edit: Although this report actually predicts a drop in deaths by the 28th of Jan. A small glimmer of hope if they are correct!