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C19 in the US

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 Offwidth 25 Jun 2020
 Cobra_Head 25 Jun 2020
In reply to Offwidth:

they haven't got past the first phase yet, and I'm not being flippant.

I say a post yesterday that Miami are now hiding cases from official numbers so they don't look so bad!!

Post edited at 10:01
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In reply to Offwidth:

It's because there's too much testing, "Slow the testing down .", DJT 2020 !!!

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 elsewhere 25 Jun 2020
In reply to Offwidth:

New York, New Jersey and Connecticut will impose a 14 day quarantine on visitors from other US states with high rates of infection.

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 Trangia 25 Jun 2020
In reply to Offwidth:

And judging by the madness exhibited yesterday in Britain as tens of thousands flocked to seaside beaches exercising little if any social distancing, and the police predictions of widespread drunkeness if its hot, when people throw caution to the wind, on 4 July (a Saturday!), Britain could well follow suit.

The last three months of lockdown squandered by Johnson's rush to ease it too quickly against his scientists advice?

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 Yanis Nayu 25 Jun 2020
In reply to Trangia:

To be honest, it’s not Johnson’s fault if people act like idiots. That said, those photos in the papers are never from above; they’re designed to be inflammatory. We don’t seem to have any surge in cases following the BLM protests a couple of weeks ago which is encouraging. 

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 Andy Hardy 25 Jun 2020
In reply to Yanis Nayu:

> To be honest, it’s not Johnson’s fault if people act like idiots. That said, those photos in the papers are never from above; they’re designed to be inflammatory. We don’t seem to have any surge in cases following the BLM protests a couple of weeks ago which is encouraging. 

"Easing" the lockdown *is* Johnson's fault. Still we can have herd Immunity for free. 🙄

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 elsewhere 25 Jun 2020
In reply to Trangia:

The good news for climbing is that there is* nowt wrong with going to the beach! A day of breezy sunshine is the opposite of the ideal cool moist indoor environment of a meat processing plant (where current outbreaks seem to be).

I don't think a single outbreak has been traced to an outdoor event (rather than the indoor bars & transport etc associated with an outdoor event). 

Ten thousand people meeting a few friends on the beach is* vastly safer than the same number of people meeting a few friends at home (allowed In England from 4th July).

Outdoors* does not matter much for C19.

*insert something in the range probably to almost certainly into* every sensible statement about C19

Post edited at 10:52
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In reply to elsewhere:

> New York, New Jersey and Connecticut will impose a 14 day quarantine on visitors from other US states with high rates of infection.

Australia has done the same, as has Germany.  It's more like one EU country imposing it on another than say Bedfordshire quarantining people from Northamptonshire, and I wouldn't bet against Wales/Scotland doing something like that for England if it's legally possible.

States have a huge amount of independence.  A lot of people compare them to Counties but they aren't really.

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In reply to Trangia:

I'll admit to being amazed they picked a Saturday (4th) instead of the following Monday (6th) to give it a bit of a "soft launch".

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 elsewhere 25 Jun 2020
In reply to Neil Williams:

It's more a comment on how bad it is now in the US rather than on federal nature of US & Germany. 

EU & Schengen borders were routinely enforced within living memory but US state borders haven't been enforced against people since Okies kept out of California the 1930s? 

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 Tringa 25 Jun 2020
In reply to Offw   When some view the use of mask this way - https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-us-canada-53174415/they-want-to-throw-god-s-wonderful-breathing-system-out 

it is no wonder cases are going up.

Dave

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 Offwidth 25 Jun 2020
In reply to elsewhere:

There was one event in the US (where the outdoor risk was examined and published) but numerous football matches, and festivals have been implicated in Europe. Lower risk outdoors isn't no risk.

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 wbo2 25 Jun 2020
In reply to elsewhere: I think you'll find a lot of outbreaks are linked back to football matches in northern Italy particularly the Atalanta Valencia Champions league match

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 Trangia 25 Jun 2020
In reply to elsewhere:

> I don't think a single outbreak has been traced to an outdoor event (rather than the indoor bars & transport etc associated with an outdoor event). 

Cheltenham Festival?

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 elsewhere 25 Jun 2020
In reply to wbo2 & Offwidth:

& Trangia too:

Linked to outdoor events - definitely yes.

Linked to the outdoor part of outdoor events rather than the train journey or few pints in the pub before/after - not heard of that. 

From outbreaks at sporting events they should have found out by now if you infect strangers seated next to you in the outdoor stadium and not just those you travel/socialise with. I've only seen reporting saying the outdoor bit does not seem to be a problem.

You'd think contact tracing in a seated football stadium would be pretty easy as your neighbour is likely to be a season ticket holder or a non-cash buyer.

Protest marches (except for EDL getting tanked up?) and US sporting events (not public transport, tailgate party outdoors) might be more purely outdoor events. It's been reported no protest related surge in US. Haven't seen reporting of US sporting events.

To me it looks like the purely outdoor aspects look pretty safe.

Post edited at 12:09
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 jkarran 25 Jun 2020
In reply to wbo2:

> I think you'll find a lot of outbreaks are linked back to football matches in northern Italy particularly the Atalanta Valencia Champions league match

Outdoor transmission clearly is possible where you have dense crowds shouting and singing in each other's faces for prolonged periods.

I suspect the bigger problem is organised mass outdoor gatherings also tend to fill indoor spaces with people and much the same raucous behaviour: coaches, trains, pubs, toilets etc.

I'm not that concerned by long lens shots of busy beaches, they are genuinely outdoors and most will have traveled as households, not on packed public transport. 

The pubs really will be the acid test of how little precaution is enough to keep the virus in check. My guess it's a step too far without scaling the problem down significantly so a proper test and trace system can effectively manage the consequences. We'll see. 

Jk

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 Offwidth 25 Jun 2020
In reply to elsewhere:

It's impossible to separate these causes. Just like we don't know comparative risks of air to surface infection.

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 wercat 25 Jun 2020
In reply to Trangia:

seaside!

you should have seen the stretch from Troutbeck up over Kirkstone, Patterdale and the whole of Ullswater yesterday.!  Blackpool wasn't in it!.  My wifes's colleague where they work on Ullswater enjoys open water swimming inter alia and he has stopped for the duration due to the amount of faeces and vomit plus general waste left around on the lakeshores.

At the shore of glencoyne there was no space left on the "beach" and the water was teeming with humanity as you'd once have seen at Bowness etc on Windermere.   As bad as a constant crowded bank holiday.  Glad to say my walk from Pooley Bridge to Troutbeck over the Roman Road was done by 10.30.   Great sunrise seen between Arthur's Pike and Loadpot hill in the solitude of the hour.

Jupiter was in the sky until 0410 when light and building light cloud at that angle  made it disappear.

Post edited at 12:25
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 cb294 25 Jun 2020
In reply to Offwidth:

But we do: Aerosols > droplets >>>>> smear transmission. Hence the most effective way* to kick off an infection cluster is to sing lots of hymns in church, even when worshippers are separate by a couple of meters and liberally use hand sanitizer. A football match in a packed stadium will do the same job, as well as, if there is any justice in this world, indoor campaign rallies full of shouty deplorables.

CB

*based on German data, where chirch services triggered several local outbreaks. Several of these were in fundamentalist evangelical churches where services include "speaking in toungues". Incidentally, the current abbatoir outbreak in NRW was apparently also triggered by a church service, with the abbatoir work and housing conditions only serving as an amplifier.

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 elsewhere 25 Jun 2020
In reply to Offwidth:

> It's impossible to separate these causes. Just like we don't know comparative risks of air to surface infection.

If you don't infect the named ticket holders stranger sitting next to you in the stadium that suggests all transmission routes in the outdoor aspect are safe, or safe enough.

You should be able to get a pretty good idea depending on whether or not you infect the named ticket holder stranger sitting next to you in an outdoor stadium compared to an indoor theatre where the proximity, duration and touching shared arm rest are similar. 

Post edited at 12:30
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 Ciro 25 Jun 2020
In reply to Neil Williams:

> I'll admit to being amazed they picked a Saturday (4th) instead of the following Monday (6th) to give it a bit of a "soft launch".

I'm not... They'll be worried about lost productivity if the first day pubs are open is a working day.

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In reply to Cobra_Head:

> they haven't got past the first phase yet, and I'm not being flippant.

Spot on. No dip in the active case graphs on worldometers. The death graph is a curve because healthcare isn't being overwhelmed anymore and they've learnt not to let it into care homes, but it'll come up again, albeit at a lower percentage of the infection rate (until such a point as the infection rate is too high to keep it away from the vulnerable).

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 Offwidth 25 Jun 2020
In reply to cb294:

I'd agree the science gives the order but Im not convinced it gives anything like an exact number in  that >>>>>>> list. Active virus is present on surfaces and if you touch that and stick your finger in your eye/nose/mouth chances are you will have a significant chance of being infected.

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 Offwidth 25 Jun 2020
In reply to elsewhere:

I'm surprised we don't know some of that already.

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In reply to Toerag:

The UK is not reporting recoveries, so there *will* be no dip on that graph for the UK, it's basically a graph of cumulative case numbers which will flatline when there are no new cases but will never drop because a cumulative graph doesn't by definition.

Post edited at 13:30
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 off-duty 25 Jun 2020
In reply to Yanis Nayu:

> To be honest, it’s not Johnson’s fault if people act like idiots. That said, those photos in the papers are never from above; they’re designed to be inflammatory. We don’t seem to have any surge in cases following the BLM protests a couple of weeks ago which is encouraging. 

The average time from infection to death is 23 days apparently. So we are not out of the woods yet...

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 Offwidth 25 Jun 2020
In reply to off-duty:

Infections to case rises would have shown trends already if those marches and other behaviour outdoors at the time was such a big issue. Once infected and tested postive the  case fatality rate is still a good bit above 1%.

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In reply to off-duty:

> The average time from infection to death is 23 days apparently. So we are not out of the woods yet...

That would be a surge in deaths, not a surge in cases. It is likely that any surge in cases would have been picked up by now. I'm quite prepared to believe that a wide range of less than ideal behaviours have slowed down the recovery, but there is no evidence of a surge in cases.

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 streapadair 25 Jun 2020
In reply to Neil Williams:

 Ah, but it's independence day, innit?

Highest covid death rates - USA/ UK/ Brazil. Trump/ Johnson/ Bolsanaro. Anyone see a pattern?

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 Offwidth 25 Jun 2020
 Yanis Nayu 25 Jun 2020
In reply to off-duty:

> The average time from infection to death is 23 days apparently. So we are not out of the woods yet...

No, but I think there are early indicator signs, like calls to helplines etc., which haven't shown an increase so I think there's cause for optimism.  My gut feeling is that its going to be OK until the winter, and we'll get a flare-up then, but I have nothing but a feeling based on what I've absorbed from reading widely about it.  Time will tell.

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In reply to Offwidth:

Does it link to an article on the religious persuasions of the Pope, or on the defecationary habits of the ursine species? :D

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 Alyson30 25 Jun 2020
In reply to Offwidth:

Well they have basically given up. On track for a million death.

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In reply to wbo2:

> I think you'll find a lot of outbreaks are linked back to football matches in northern Italy 

Nobody goes to a pub before or after a football match, or uses public transport to get there, of course...

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 Graeme G 25 Jun 2020
In reply to Offwidth:

> There is comparative evidence linking to different lockdown easing.

It’s a shame, given the difference in approach, they haven’t separated out the constituent parts of the UK. Would make interesting reading to see if this has made any difference.

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 jkarran 25 Jun 2020
In reply to off-duty:

> The average time from infection to death is 23 days apparently. So we are not out of the woods yet...

Definitely not out of the woods but surprisingly the recent changes and protests don't seem to have had much impact. 

It's more like 10 days from symptoms to hospital admission which produces solid numbers. Also, we finally have test availability and capacity to get a few more days warning though with it being mainly edge of town drive-through my guess is poorer areas may be a bit of a blindspot.

Jk

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 Cobra_Head 25 Jun 2020
In reply to Taylor's Landlord:

> It's because there's too much testing, "Slow the testing down .", DJT 2020 !!!


It was a joke, and then it wasn't a joke an day later!

The blokes a madman.

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In reply to elsewhere:

> New York, New Jersey and Connecticut will impose a 14 day quarantine on visitors from other US states with high rates of infection.

If Johnson stays on his present course Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland will need to do the same or all the work we put in to getting it almost suppressed will be for nothing.

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In reply to jkarran:

> Definitely not out of the woods but surprisingly the recent changes and protests don't seem to have had much impact. 

We could be on the falling curve of the epidemic in one sub-population and the start of the rising curve in another.   In the national figures reduced death and infection from the care home epidemic fading out may be more than balancing the early stages of growth in the general population.

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In reply to Neil Williams:

> The UK is not reporting recoveries, so there *will* be no dip on that graph for the UK, it's basically a graph of cumulative case numbers which will flatline when there are no new cases but will never drop because a cumulative graph doesn't by definition.

I was referring to the USA (which the OP was about). UK does have an active case* curve which has peaked and come back down to pre-lockdown levels.

*you can do a rough guess of live cases by doing [total cases today] - [total cases 14 days ago].

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In reply to Tringa:

> //www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-us-canada-53174415/they-want-to-throw-god-s-wonderful-breathing-system-out 

I feel stupider for having watched that.  I feel so incredibly sorry for the medical professionals on the receiving end of such vile insanity.

I went to Florida in ‘95 as a youth with parents and vowed never to return.  Young people in their 20s and 30s on powered wheel chairs or Zimmer frames due to morbid obesity, some of the worst racial segregation I’ve ever seen, whole communities of nothing but flag raising retirees.  Special oversized reinforced chairs and toilets in many restaurants for the blob people.  If they let this loose in the general community it’s going to tear the arse out of the state.

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In reply to tom_in_edinburgh:

> We could be on the falling curve of the epidemic in one sub-population and the start of the rising curve in another.   In the national figures reduced death and infection from the care home epidemic fading out may be more than balancing the early stages of growth in the general population.


Yep, the global curve hasn't runaway for the same reason - As the Wuhan hit slowed Italy kicked off, as that slowed the rest of Europe kicked off, as that slowed the USA kicked off, as that slowed Brazil kicked off, and as that's slowing India and Pakistan are kicking off.  It would be interesting to put all the graphs on top of each other from day 1 of infection in each nation.  Mark Handley was doing that but seems to have stopped doing his graphs . The deaths won't increase in line with the infection numbers either as we've learnt to protect the vulnerable better.  You can see this all over worldometers - the number of live serious cases is 1-2% of live cases, yet the number of deaths is 5-40% of closed cases. At some point the infection numbers will get big enough to see an increase in deaths though.

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 Andy Johnson 25 Jun 2020
In reply to Tringa:

There's stupidity everywhere right now, but that there is some real honest-to-god American Exceptionalism stupidity.

Why do I have to share a planet with people who are this ignorant?

Post edited at 18:03
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 Blunderbuss 25 Jun 2020
In reply to Offwidth:

Becoming clear that the USA is goosed, they were never going to get it under ontrol with that blithering idiot as president....the impact on the global economy is going to be very bad. 

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 cb294 25 Jun 2020
In reply to Offwidth:

There is no single case (again from German data) where a cluster of infections could be tracked back to multiple people coming into contact with some contaminated surface (handrails, door knobs, public lavatories, etc.). Every single cluster tested was instead caused by inhalation, in particular aerosols.

Early in the epidemic, distancing, hand washing, and surface sterilization were emphasized. This must have had some effect that, lacking controls, is impossible to quantify. In contrast, the immediate, added effect of introducing masks again shows the relative importance of the different infection pathways. A few single persons getting unlucky and picking up a glob of virus laden snot that made it past the mask somewhere does not really count in the greater scheme of the pandemic.

So, smear infection is possible, but its relevance for the overall infection will be low. Nevertheless, we had our first judo session post lockdown yesterday, and we did disinfect the mats aftewards. Bound to be pointless, but no one will test just how in effective that pathway really is (and also, it is the law).

The much more useful regulation is careful documentation: We have to sign in with name and contact details, classes are split into smaller groups, and training pairs are documented. So, if we get unlucky (our district had 0.7 cases per 7 days and 100k inhabitants), we will probably all catch it given the nature of our sport, but contact tracing is essentially done preemptively.

We could even go to the beer garden for our essential apres judo, but again, we had to sign in with name, address and phone number

CB

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 elsewhere 25 Jun 2020
In reply to cb294:

That preemptive distributed contact tracing is an excellent idea as our government can't expletive it up.

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 jkarran 26 Jun 2020
In reply to Tringa:

> //www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-us-canada-53174415/they-want-to-throw-god-s-wonderful-breathing-system-out 

We're a weird lot us humans! Just imagine having to sit through and consider nonsense like that as part of your job.

jk

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 DancingOnRock 26 Jun 2020
In reply to Yanis Nayu:

Infections will slowly drop over the next few months. They’ve been very clear about watching the R value. If it stays below 1 by the winter we should be clear of the disease. 

A second wave depends on us returning to behaviours that increase R. They’re opening pubs - but they can close them again. 

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In reply to DancingOnRock:

> Infections will slowly drop over the next few months. They’ve been very clear about watching the R value. If it stays below 1 by the winter we should be clear of the disease. 

Not if it's still near 1 you won't.  It's been 0.7-0.9 in the UK for what, a month now?  In that time the live case numbers have halved to ~15k cases. Working forward, 7k at the end of July, 3.5k end of august, 1.25k end of September.  Relaxing lockdown will increase R, so no, the UK won't be clear of the disease by winter.

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 DancingOnRock 26 Jun 2020
In reply to Toerag:

Relaxing lockdown is supposed to happen in a way that keeps R below 1. We have also seen that infections are now happening in pockets and we are tracing them. 
 

There’s no reason to believe we will get a second wave. The population are a lot more aware of what will happen if we do. 
 

New cases have gone from 1200 a day to 1100 a day in a week. 11 weeks on they should have dropped significantly. 

Post edited at 13:24
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 DizzyVizion 26 Jun 2020
In reply to Yanis Nayu:

> To be honest, it’s not Johnson’s fault if people act like idiots.

By not sacking Dominic Cummings, he hasn't discouraged people from acting like idiots either.

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 profitofdoom 26 Jun 2020
In reply to Andy Johnson:

> Why do I have to share a planet with people who are this ignorant?

It's a pretty big planet, even the UK is pretty big

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 DancingOnRock 26 Jun 2020
In reply to DizzyVizion:

People are only going to stay behaving in lockdown for so long. The DC thing was weeks ago. As soon as they allowed people out for as long as they want to, the idiots have been having parties. It’s just those parties are getting more visible as more people get more relaxed about being out. 
 

There were always going to be 10% who ignore it, 80% who work out what it means to them and act accordingly, and 10% who stick to the rules to extremes and point the finger at the other 90%.
 

10% of 60m is a lot of people, but the 80% is the important section.

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 DizzyVizion 26 Jun 2020
In reply to DancingOnRock:

> People are only going to stay behaving in lockdown for so long. The DC thing was weeks ago.

The impact of Cummgate on people's attitudes towards Covid-19 measures should never be understated.

There was a distinct shift from loyal compliance to irritated complacency immediately after Cummgate. 

The gruesome twosome of Johnson and Cummings have done more to cheapen the national effort than anything else.

This is the truth of the matter.

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 DancingOnRock 26 Jun 2020
In reply to DizzyVizion:

>There was a distinct shift from loyal compliance to irritated complacency immediately after Cummgate. 

 

Your evidence for this? Considering it all kicked off the weekend before June 1st and after everyone had been told they could go out as much as they liked. 

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 DizzyVizion 26 Jun 2020
In reply to DancingOnRock:

> >There was a distinct shift from loyal compliance to irritated complacency immediately after Cummgate. 

> Your evidence for this? Considering it all kicked off the weekend before June 1st and after everyone had been told they could go out as much as they liked. 

My evidence of the shift in people's attitudes towards Covid-19 measures after Cummgate? Are you having a laugh?

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 DancingOnRock 26 Jun 2020
In reply to DizzyVizion:

No I’m not. What evidence do you have? 
 

People were already being allowed to go out as much as they wanted. How did it change their behaviour? 

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 Hat Dude 26 Jun 2020
In reply to Offwidth:

There was a good piece in yesterday's Guardian by Stephen Reicher on why he thinks Johnson is sending the wrong message about easing lockdown

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/jun/24/boris-johnson-ease-lockdown-england

I particularly agree with the bit regarding abandoning the bombast of "sending the virus packing within 12 weeks".

Any faux Churchillian statements about beating the virus are crap; we are just containing it at best!

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 DizzyVizion 26 Jun 2020
In reply to DancingOnRock:

Evidence that people I know took Cummgate as reason to start ignoring the governments guidelines?

Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence.

They know they f'd up the effort. 

WE know they f'd up the effort.

And you're seriously telling me you don't?

The government had plenty of evidence from around the world yet did nothing about Covid-19 until it was too late. That's what you're like right now.

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 Roadrunner6 26 Jun 2020
In reply to Cobra_Head:

"they haven't got past the first phase yet, and I'm not being flippant.

I say a post yesterday that Miami are now hiding cases from official numbers so they don't look so bad!!"

This, in some of these areas they never had a first phase. This is their phase. The problem is in some areas they believed it was over.

Here they are trying to close down talk of 'first phase' and 'second phase' because it never went away.

It's very geographical and politically influenced. I am in Mass and everyone wears a mask. Yet friends in Texas are sharing posts #dontstayhome and are convinced Masks are just for their own protection.

Arizona: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/arizona/

Mass: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/massachusetts/

Post edited at 15:20
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 Roadrunner6 26 Jun 2020
In reply to DancingOnRock:

When schools open its impossible not to see an increase. It's just trying to keep them low enough to cope.

We won't be free of the disease until 60-70% are infected or we have a vaccine. We won't control it otherwise. Look at yesterday's beach scenes.

As we are 5-7% infected at most in most countries, we are years away from herd immunity.

The UK still aren't using masks that much either. We've shown in some states we can keep it under control but that's without kids being in schools. There's no more money for more economic lockdowns.

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 DizzyVizion 26 Jun 2020
In reply to DancingOnRock:

Apologies for being so harsh. I mean no offence. But allow me to explain my point a little better here-

As heads of this nation, Johnson and by extension Cummings as his advisor both had major parts to play in the effort against this virus.

The first faux pas was when Johnson decided he would shake peoples hands and then gleefully tell the nation he was doing so. Almost got himself killed doing that, didn't he?

And then Cummings decided he would visit his parents... and then a castle, with his family... 250 miles away! When we were all told to stay within 5 miles of home and not come into contact with another household.

Johnson then FAILED to sack him for it. Threw the entire nation under the bus, endangering the lives of the many for just one; his mate Cummings.

There is no excuse for any of that. None.

It happened, and we all watched it happen.

But your position is none of this had a negative impact on peoples perceptions of Covid-19 restrictions in place at the time it all happened? Because there is no published report on the matter yet?

I'll leave it at that. I genuinely hope you have a nice weekend.

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 DancingOnRock 26 Jun 2020
In reply to DizzyVizion:

No. My perception is there are subset of people in this country maybe 10%, I think that’s figures borne by surveys, who ignore all the rules. 
 

By extension there are 90% who don’t. 
 

Those 10% will continue to ignore the rules and when questioned they’ll say “what about Boris, what about DC?” Most of us realise those people are and will always be idiots, they’ll always find some reason not to obey rules - because rules don’t apply to them. 
 

Don’t excuse their bad behaviour by allowing them to blame the government. That’s just being lazy. 
 

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In reply to DancingOnRock:

Many people when interviewed or stopped by the police said that the reason they were no longer taking the rules seriously was Cummings.

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 DancingOnRock 26 Jun 2020
In reply to Roadrunner6:

The U.K. are using face coverings. Indoors where 2m isn’t possible.
 

School children don’t appear to transmit the virus. 
 

We have approx 1 in 2000 people with the virus and they’re mainly self isolating. Else everyone is social distancing. 
 

Don’t take the behaviour of a few thousand idiots as a measure of many millions’ behaviour. 

Post edited at 16:03
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 DancingOnRock 26 Jun 2020
In reply to John Stainforth:

Of course they would. wouldn’t they? They’re idiots. But why are the police stopping them? There was no restriction on travel? 

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In reply to DancingOnRock:

For goodness sake! I don't know the reason the police were stopping people, but usually they have legitimate reasons. Speeding, driving like idiots, etc...

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 DizzyVizion 26 Jun 2020
In reply to DancingOnRock:

I personally know people who were following the rules but then stopped because of Cummgate. That's a statement I'm afraid you'll juat have to take at face value.

Johnson and Cummings absolutely cheapened the effort of NHS staff in the fight against Covid-19 and for that they both deserved to lose their jobs.

That's my tuppence worth.

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 Dr.S at work 26 Jun 2020
In reply to Hat Dude:

> There was a good piece in yesterday's Guardian by Stephen Reicher on why he thinks Johnson is sending the wrong message about easing lockdown

> I particularly agree with the bit regarding abandoning the bombast of "sending the virus packing within 12 weeks".

Did he not say “ turn the corner in 12 weeks”? Which is what has in fact happened - the “send it packing” was later in what was actually quite a good speech.

BJ is a knob, there is no need to misquote him.

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 Hat Dude 26 Jun 2020
In reply to Dr.S at work:

> BJ is a knob, there is no need to misquote him.

I quoted from the the article to which I posted the link, which was referencing this

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/19/boris-johnson-uk-can-turn-tide-of-coronavirus-in-12-weeks

Post edited at 17:51
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 Dr.S at work 26 Jun 2020
In reply to Hat Dude:

Yes, but if you follow the link in that article you will see their quote is wrong.
 

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 Hat Dude 26 Jun 2020
In reply to Dr.S at work:

Nit picking

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 Offwidth 26 Jun 2020
 Hat Dude 26 Jun 2020
In reply to Offwidth:

I am a firm believer in the people. If given the truth, they can be depended upon to meet any national crisis. The great point is to bring them the real facts.

Abraham Lincoln

😢

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 DancingOnRock 26 Jun 2020
In reply to DizzyVizion:

What rules did they stop following? 

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 Hat Dude 26 Jun 2020
In reply to Offwidth:

This topic has been hijacked from the being about the USA but Johnson's latest statements regarding beaches beggar belief

Copied from the BBC website

"He said people in other countries had been "taking too many liberties with the guidance" as lockdown rules eased"

"Mr Johnson said people in some countries were "not observing social distancing"."

Those bloody Johnny foreigners, it's all their fault!

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 Dr.S at work 26 Jun 2020
In reply to Hat Dude:

Not really - I recalled the statement at the time - Johnson got a fair bit of flack for it on here, but its turned out to have been mostly correct.

If I did not know the quote and saw it reported as you did in the guardian I would believe thats what Johnson said - but he did not - hence worth flagging, no?

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 Hat Dude 26 Jun 2020
In reply to Dr.S at work:

Not really

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 Dr.S at work 26 Jun 2020
In reply to Hat Dude:

good grief.

"I am a firm believer in the people. If given the truth, they can be depended upon to meet any national crisis. The great point is to bring them the real facts."

Post edited at 23:04
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 Dr.S at work 26 Jun 2020
In reply to Hat Dude:

> This topic has been hijacked from the being about the USA but Johnson's latest statements regarding beaches beggar belief

> Copied from the BBC website

> "He said people in other countries had been "taking too many liberties with the guidance" as lockdown rules eased"

> "Mr Johnson said people in some countries were "not observing social distancing"."

> Those bloody Johnny foreigners, it's all their fault!


I find it rather unpleasent to feel I must defend this odious man - but he clearly does not say its the fault of Johnny Foreginers.

He says in other countries when lockdown was eased, people took the piss and this lead to a spike in infections. He uses this to make the point that we should not take the piss, and that if we do restrictions will be imposed.

"I am a firm believer in the people. If given the truth, they can be depended upon to meet any national crisis. The great point is to bring them the real facts."

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In reply to DancingOnRock:

> People were already being allowed to go out as much as they wanted. How did it change their behaviour? 

Not overnight. I'm in a Facebook wild camping group, and one of the moderators posted a link to a story on Cummings when it all kicked off, with a comment on long the lines of "well f*ck this. I'm going wild camping again." He and others have been posting pictures of their wild camps reasonably regularly since then and have got a bit shouty at anyone who points out that legally there is still no right to be away from home overnight.

Another person said he was going to camp in his van as a result. There appear to be plenty of van camping going on around the Eastern Edges of the Peak since then as well. I haven't stopped to ask interview anyone, but this seems to be happening more since the Cummings debacle. Derbyshire and South Yorks police don't appear to be enforcing no camping in the way that Cumbria and North Yorks police have done.

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In reply to TobyA:

> Not overnight. I'm in a Facebook wild camping group, and one of the moderators posted a link to a story on Cummings when it all kicked off, with a comment on long the lines of "well f*ck this. I'm going wild camping again." He and others have been posting pictures of their wild camps reasonably regularly since then and have got a bit shouty at anyone who points out that legally there is still no right to be away from home overnight.

That's just a handful of people carrying out extremely low risk activities.
The real catalyst was probably the BLM demos as it showed that the Police would/could actually do little to stop mass gatherings and that therefore gave people the idea that they could go en masse to beaches and celebrate outside Anfield, etc.
Remember the scenes in Snowdonia the weekend before the official Lockdown when people knew that they shouldn't really be doing it, but did so regardless.  That definitely was nothing to do with Cummings. 

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 Blunderbuss 27 Jun 2020
In reply to FactorXXX:

I agree the BLM protests were the biggest catalyst for people taking the piss with regards to large gatherings...i was gobsmacked when I saw first saw pictures of Hyde Park that looked something like Glastonbury....with virtually no criticism (think we know why).

Look at the Liverpool fans now getting it in the neck for similar scenes....

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 Stob Dearg 27 Jun 2020
In reply to Yanis Nayu:

F*ck yeah it is Boris's fault. 

The messaging has been <absolutely> crap, there's 101 easy things to do about this (like posters, local access permits, handwash stations, patrols and sacking Cummings). People are idiots - that we know, that Boris knows - managing the idiocy is the government's job and responsibility.

Hot day, nice weather, people kept indoors for months, mushy messaging, incompetency left right and centre, one rule for us and one for the masses, stay confused, talk bollocks, deflect blame and then masses of people go to the beach? Who'd have thunk it eh? Was anyone actually surprised? since no one was then why wasn't it managed better? if it wasn't managed better who is to blame, errrm, Boris.

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In reply to Stob Dearg:

> The messaging has been crap,

You'd have to be monumentally stupid not to know what the rules/guidance are concerning Social Distancing and Mass Gatherings.

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 elsewhere 27 Jun 2020
In reply to FactorXXX:

> You'd have to be monumentally stupid not to know what the rules/guidance are concerning Social Distancing and Mass Gatherings.

But post Cummings everybody knows the message is that rules/guidance apply to other people. That's the message, along with of course I shook everybody's hand in the hospital after saying you shouldn't  and yes I will see me my mother on mothering Sunday no I won't. 

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In reply to elsewhere:

> But post Cummings everybody knows the message is that rules/guidance apply to other people. That's the message, along with of course I shook everybody's hand in the hospital after saying you shouldn't  and yes I will see me my mother on mothering Sunday no I won't. 

To be honest, I think the only people who *think* like that are doing it for political reasons as opposed to what they would actually do.
For example, plenty of people on UKC are stating that the Cumming's thing was a catalyst, but how many of them have gone to the beach, etc?  I'm guessing they haven't because they know that the rules/guidance are still in place and nothing has really changed.
The people actually going on BLM demo's and the beach don't give a shit about what Cummings did.  In the case of the BLM demo's, the people involved thought that the motivation behind them were more important than containing the virus and nothing was going to stop them once the momentum had started.  As for the beach goers, just look at the rubbish they've left - Do you really think they're the sort of people that analyse the news and make decisions based on it?  No, they're just selfish idiots that in previous years have trashed places like the Blue Lagoon and Loch Lomond, etc.

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 elsewhere 27 Jun 2020
In reply to FactorXXX:

Do you dispute the weaknesses of the messaging that I highlighted?

Stob Dearg did not say the rules/guidance were crap. He said the messaging was crap. 

The govt has yet to lead by example by being seen wearing masks outside of a lab/hospital. That's not because masks are crap.  It's because the messaging continues to be crap.

Post edited at 14:18
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In reply to elsewhere:

> Do you dispute the weaknesses of the messaging that I highlighted?

They're so weak, that I would hope that anyone with the slightest bit of intelligence would ignore them and still realise that there is a virus out there.

Question to you:
Would the BLM demo's have happened without the Cummings incident?
 

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 elsewhere 27 Jun 2020
In reply to FactorXXX:

> Would the BLM demo's have happened without the Cummings incident?

Almost certainly.

Would the message and probably compliance be stronger if Cummings had been sacked?

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 elsewhere 27 Jun 2020
In reply to FactorXXX:

> They're so weak, 

that we can assume it cost lives.

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 jethro kiernan 27 Jun 2020
In reply to Offwidth:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DaFSH0K4BdQ&

Not looking good, the standard of debate in the States has gone down a little.

Bearing in mind this is a public debate in an institution of democracy to discuss a serious problem. 
just as Humanity stands at a cross roads with regards so many things, democracy in the digital age, the climate, tax, corporate accountability, international cooperation and we have this level of debate from the second most powerful country in the World.

I’m truly worried for my children

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In reply to Offwidth:

Getting back to C19 in the US, it was desperate seeing on Newsnight that Florida, which was keen to open up again, has seen a 60% rise in infections in a 24 hour period. They also showed snippets of people claiming things like wearing masks was an affront to God, who had created the perfect breathing tools  (ie lungs) and that seemingly every possible public health measure impinged on some constitutional right or another.

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 Tobes 27 Jun 2020
In reply to Trangia:

> Cheltenham Festival?

“I’d rather get Covid than miss this event” said one punter to a BBC reporter at the time.

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 jethro kiernan 27 Jun 2020
In reply to earlsdonwhu:

See the link I posted  😕

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 DancingOnRock 27 Jun 2020
In reply to TobyA:

But since the Cummings debacle people were allowed to go out for exercise and travel as far as they wanted. There was a huge shift in attitudes and what we could and couldn’t do. The police went from stopping anyone who’s address flagged up as not local on their ANPR to a much easier stance. 
 

You can conflate that with DC if you want but I don’t believe he made a huge difference. Campsites are shut, we couldn’t stay in each other’s houses but technically there was nothing in the rules about staying in your own tent in the wilderness. Especially given that you could go and sunbathe and picnic in the park for as long as you want, and the national parks were beginning to open up again. 

Post edited at 16:41
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 deepsoup 27 Jun 2020
In reply to DancingOnRock:

> .. we couldn’t stay in each other’s houses but technically there was nothing in the rules about staying in your own tent in the wilderness.

Yes there was (and still is), and it really isn't ambiguous at all.  'Non-essential' overnight stays away from home are not allowed.  That restriction is due to be lifted (in England) on 4th July.

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 Cobra_Head 27 Jun 2020
In reply to Yanis Nayu:

> To be honest, it’s not Johnson’s fault if people act like idiots. That said, those photos in the papers are never from above; they’re designed to be inflammatory. We don’t seem to have any surge in cases following the BLM protests a couple of weeks ago which is encouraging. 


You don't think,

It's just a bit of flu.

We can take it on the chin.

I've shook hands with everyone.

have an influence on how people treat the virus?

Of course it's Johnson's fault, it's not ALL his fault, but if he hadn't treated it like a bit of a jape in the first place, we wouldn't be 45,000 people less and maybe people pissing off to the beach and being cnuts, wouldn't have mattered.

We had two week notice on Spain and Italy when we did nothing but piss around.

So yes it's his fault.

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In reply to elsewhere:

> that we can assume it cost lives.

It appears that you've heavily edited your post that I replied to after I replied to it and to such an extent that it gives it a totally different context to as originally intended.
Thanks for that, much appreciated...

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In reply to elsewhere:

> Almost certainly.

So, the Cummings incident had no real effect on a demonstration which many felt was totally at the wrong time as according to you it would have happened regardless.

> Would the message and probably compliance be stronger if Cummings had been sacked?

Haven't got a clue, but you seem to have accepted that the Cumming's incident had no real impact on the BLM demos. So, why do you think that the same incident has had an impact on other mass gatherings?

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 elsewhere 28 Jun 2020
In reply to FactorXXX:

> So, the Cummings incident had no real effect on a demonstration which many felt was totally at the wrong time as according to you it would have happened regardless.

No real effect and would have happened anyway are not the same thing. They might have been smaller had the country have been unified by leadership and a message.

> Haven't got a clue, but you seem to have accepted that the Cumming's incident had no real impact on the BLM demos. So, why do you think that the same incident has had an impact on other mass gatherings?

Why do you think compliance refers to demos (outdoors, 0.1% of population, hours duration) rather than everything and everyone that spreads the virus (almost entirely indoors, 100% of population, over period of weeks, mostly before BLM demos)? 

Post edited at 04:10
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 profitofdoom 28 Jun 2020
In reply to wintertree:

> I went to Florida in ‘95 as a youth with parents and vowed never to return.  Young people in their 20s and 30s on powered wheel chairs or Zimmer frames due to morbid obesity... Special oversized reinforced chairs and toilets in many restaurants for the blob people.  If they let this loose in the general community it’s going to tear the arse out of the state.

That sounds eye-opening. I remember seeing somewhat similar sights during some of my stays of several weeks in Queens, New York in the 1990s and early 2000s. But not as bad as that. I suppose Florida can be worse, certainly from your report

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In reply to elsewhere:

> No real effect and would have happened anyway are not the same thing. They might have been smaller had the country have been unified by leadership and a message.

The message about Social Distancing and attending mass gatherings, etc. were abundantly clear and the people flouting them did so knowingly.

> Why do you think compliance refers to demos (outdoors, 0.1% of population, hours duration) rather than everything and everyone that spreads the virus (almost entirely indoors, 100% of population, over period of weeks, mostly before BLM demos)? 

Because the pictures of people at the demos and beaches, etc. was what people reacted in total shock and dismay to when it comes to non-compliance of the rules/guidance.

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 elsewhere 28 Jun 2020
In reply to FactorXXX:

> The message about Social Distancing and attending mass gatherings, etc. were abundantly clear and the people flouting them did so knowingly.

So what. Post Cummings the message is that knowingly flouting guidance that apply to others only is ok. 

> Because the pictures of people at the demos and beaches, etc. was what people reacted in total shock and dismay to when it comes to non-compliance of the rules/guidance.

Shock and dismay is not the science of viral spread. It's a good distraction from poor government messaging though.

It's also a distraction from the everything and everybody of viral spread.I understand spread is now things like meat processing plants* and family get togethers** rather than mass open air gatherings.

*various countries

**Australia after lockdown released

Post edited at 11:25
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 jess13 28 Jun 2020
In reply to elsewhere:

> & Trangia

> To me it looks like the purely outdoor aspects look pretty safe.

There is a difference between hard evidence and wishful thinking. Quite a lot of the latter amongst the general population......we shall see.

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 elsewhere 28 Jun 2020
In reply to jess13:

> There is a difference between hard evidence and wishful thinking. Quite a lot of the latter amongst the general population......we shall see.

I've seen a professor saying outdoors 18 times safer than indoors but not seen the evidence.

I've read about contact tracing study on China - 1 of 341 cases was outdoors if I remember correctly.

I've read no post BLM surge in US cities with demos compared to other cities.

It's more than wishful thinking, looking increasingly probable.

With an effective test, track system to identify who infected whom we would have good data on this from months ago. But there's no expletive urgency on this from our government.

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In reply to jess13:

> There is a difference between hard evidence and wishful thinking. Quite a lot of the latter amongst the general population......we shall see.

Where are the spikes, in the UK, from:

- Black Lives Matter protests

- Beaches

?  I can't see any.  These big outdoor events where distancing was not really followed seem to be having little or no effect.  That suggests to me that it's evidence (albeit anecdotal) that outdoor spread is minimal.

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 elsewhere 28 Jun 2020
In reply to DancingOnRock:

Well the people I saw going camping specifically cited Cummings as their reason for deciding to no longer follow the rules (which you don't seem to have read anyway because the no overnight rule is pretty clear). 

But please feel free to keep denying the evidence people have provided you with. It's a tactic that is working so well in the US. 

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In reply to Offwidth:

https://www.voanews.com/covid-19-pandemic/covid-19-spreading-us-too-fast-control-cdc-expert-says

Don't really know what to say , apart from hoping all the people that take this seriously are spared .

The fake news , god will  save me, anti science lot I don't have time for.

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