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Covid in e.g. Florida

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Why have things stabilised in some US states without onerous restrictions? 

 marsbar 13 Oct 2020
In reply to MG:

I don't know but I'd wonder if good weather and an outdoor living culture is anything to do with it? 

 mik82 13 Oct 2020
In reply to MG:

Florida are still getting about 2500 cases per day and 100 deaths per day, with a death rate already significantly higher than us at this stage - the equivalent of us  at about 7500 cases and 300 deaths per day

Post edited at 20:44
In reply to mik82:

But stable at those levels. Why? 

In reply to marsbar:

Possibly, although there was a higher period. 

 Roadrunner6 13 Oct 2020
In reply to marsbar:

> I don't know but I'd wonder if good weather and an outdoor living culture is anything to do with it? 

That would be my guess, plus old population being careful as hell irregardless of regulations.

 mik82 13 Oct 2020
In reply to MG:

Well even if the measures are lax, people will still stay at home when unwell and apply their own distancing measures so it has an effect on R. Combined with that, enough people will have had it for the epidemic to stop growing exponentially for now. Bear in mind that adjusted for population they have stabilised at a rate of infection that is 12x what we were at over the summer,  deaths are 10x and their test positivity rate is still 5%. 

 Roadrunner6 13 Oct 2020
In reply to mik82:

It's an old state (one of the oldest in the US, 20% of the state is 65+), retirement state of the US which may explain the death rate, plus lots of hispanics, which supposedly have done worse with covid.

https://www.prb.org/which-us-states-are-the-oldest/

 Roadrunner6 13 Oct 2020
In reply to mik82:

I don't think enough have had it yet. 800,000 of 21 million. So not even 5%.

 mik82 13 Oct 2020
In reply to Roadrunner6:

That's positive tests though? - actual infections is going to be a multiple of that.

 wintertree 13 Oct 2020
In reply to marsbar:

> I don't know but I'd wonder if good weather and an outdoor living culture is anything to do with it? 

If Covid is anything like me, it's sworn off Florida for life.

The humidity might not be doing the virus' viable lifetime any favours.

The Worldometer stats for Florida look odd - deaths have dropped to about 50% from peak, but cases have dropped to about 25%.  This suggests testing coverage has actually decreased since the peak which would be insane, but then - Florida.   Interestingly they prioritise testing of children as well as the elderly and the symptomatic - if schools are a major route of spread (especially ages ~14 to 18) this could be effective.  

Sunshine and vitamin D?  Also its still nice outside over there. 

It'd be good to have some definitive answers...

 Roadrunner6 14 Oct 2020
In reply to mik82:

> That's positive tests though? - actual infections is going to be a multiple of that.

Yeah, I don't think we test enough to know. Around us we use test positivity as the most accurate measure and try to keep it constant who we test. 

We're certainly seeing an increase in numbers in the NE as we expected, kids are going back, sports are starting and its getting colder and stormy.. It's going to be a winter of discontent for sure.

 roar 15 Oct 2020
In reply to MG:

Florida had some issues with deliberately falsifying records a little while back. Resulted in data scientist being fired for refusing to comply.   

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/may/20/florida-scientist-dr-rebekah-jones-fired-refusing-change-covid-19-data-reopen-plan 

Be interesting to see if there's a corralation between what you're seeing and who controls those states!


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