UKC

For continuation as the other one got full.

And China hasn't eradicated it either, nor will they be able to do so.

There isn't one if you mean "one that will prevent deaths".

Thats an exaggeration of the situation: China have covid19 largely under control and are being careful at borders and airports to reduce further outbreaks. Effectively they are back to occasional containment. The idea they are engaged in a mass cover up looks ludicrous.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/china/

I would just like it to be known that I have behaved in an exemplary manner so far - shedding gloves between shops and only going into town on trips for necessaries/prescriptions

My comments re Covid invaders was about 2nd home and tourist visitors, not about local people going short distances to non tourist places to get a bit of clean air

This morning was a typical case in point.   There was the smell of smoke coming in through the bedroom window - tight chest.

I showered and as usual opened the windows.  I had to close them early as the woodsmoke came into the bathroom.

So some of you Gauleiters who accuse me of wanting my own rules say that I have to exercise in this environment to (MG????)

Off Duty - As I have to drive into town repeatedly for prescriptions and supplies thanks to the hoarders and we have holiday homers burning fires hear why does it increase my risk at all, given my symptoms are worsened by the air here when fires are on and improved by going a short distance to get to some cleaner air (remember I was doing this from January onwards to get over the problems that I've developed, keeping nearly out of sight of other walkers as I didn't want to meet people while wheezing, ) when I meet far more people in town and apparently I could drive there quite lawfully (in your view) to pick up essential supplies from the Off Licences?

Or do I just let my general health and fitness go down and wait for the infection to come, if I haven't already had it.

Answers please as we spend our savings without govt help?

READ MY POSTS ABOUT F & M and the biosecurity I exercise before snide comments like sheesh you sarky blighter

I don't mind how many effing dislikes I get (perhaps it will be a record - I don't care, I'm considering leaving the forum anyway because of the I'm all right Jack Gauleiters)

FWIW I agree with you on woodsmoke and would propose, given that this is a respiratory disease, that the Government should ask that people in urban areas only use woodburners if their home has no other viable heating system (which is going to be a tiny proportion of houses; in most UK urban areas most people either have gas central heating or storage radiators, rubbish though the latter are).  The guy opposite me has one, it stinks at the best of times, and if I was having serious breathing difficulties due to COVID19 (but not enough to go into hospital) it could well tip me over the edge into needing treatment.

We're not in an urban area though!  Since living in Cumbria I've come to recognise that some urban residential areas (when traffic isn't flowing) actually have less trouble from wood burning, open garden and domestic fires, caustic chemical fertilizers than villages. Plus no diesel tractors up and down the street driven by phoning youngsters at speed

The big thing is thinking Italy and Spain are necessarily the path other countries will take. 

the population density of Italian and Spanish towns is greater. People are hemmed in. Total confinement is much more important because of the apartment life style. Even multigenerational families. 

re essential and non essential businesses, there’s too many people working in London. The tube is full.  There’s little chance to slow things down while that is happening.

Others have replied on the previous thread, but:

I see two possible exits:

(1) An effective vaccine and mass vaccination. A harsher lockdown does not bring that forward (though it would reduce deaths in the meantime).

(2) Most of us having had it and the UK now having herd immunity.    

In scenario (2), a harsher lockdown means a *longer* lockdown, and the harsher it is the longer it goes on.   

People doing low-risk activities are then not being "incredibly selfish" and prolonging it for everyone, since it is then not the case that the harsher the lock down the shorter it is. 

If, instead, the argument is that we lock down until the virus is eradicated then:

a) I think there's no chance.  And even if we achieved it in the UK we'd then have to seal the borders until a vaccine came along, since there's zero chance of eradication worldwide. 

b) We simply can't lock down sufficiently to eradicate.  People have to eat. We need to produce and distribute food (and thus need quite a bit of knock-on activity to support that).   China could lock down Wuhan because it is 1% of China and could be supported by the other 99%.  Even then it is a 3-month lock down, ongoing.  We can't do that for the whole of the UK for long enough to eradicate the virus without mass starvation. 

I think this may make a huge difference, and notably the cases have exploded in London (which is most like a European city in the UK) and Hampshire (Portsmouth is the highest density city outside of London I believe).  Birmingham a bit less so, but I believe that one is for a different reason, specifically the large Muslim population continuing to go to Friday prayers etc and spreading it there.

Most European city dwellers live in flats.  It's impossible for them to go out of their home without touching something that someone else has touched, even if it's only the block entrance door handle.  There's also a reasonable chance they will pass someone else on the stairs, which aren't wide enough for 2m distancing.

Most British city dwellers outside London live in suburban houses.  They can usually enter and leave without touching anything, other than the floor, that anyone else has touched.  Even most inner-city dwellers (as distinct from city centre) live in vast swathes of Victorian terraced houses which are no different to suburban ones in terms of risks (may even be lower as the postman hasn't touched the front gate as you haven't got one).

This could itself make a considerable difference.

Loads of people are still going out all over the place, outside the guidelines

WHAT THE HELL IS THE MATTER WITH PEOPLE

They'll pack it in once it has cost them £30 a pop.

Quarantine cities harsher than rural areas. A veg grower in lincs can realistically self isolate with a small work force and feed the cities who are more locked down. 

I hold out no hope of vaccines, if there are bonus. Worst case is there are annual mutation, then what? 

Harsher lock downs will reduce the spread in a shorter time span. But it's arguably too late. Perhaps when covid20 hits in the Autumn we will have learnt. 

Viruses tend, generally, to mutate to less harmful forms.  This is because a virus that causes more harm to its host tends to cause them to at least stay in bed or at most die.  Neither of those is particularly helpful to spreading it.

Therefore, if it mutates to that extent, it is likely it will join colds and flu in just being an annual winter annoyance.

I apologise as I was perhaps a bit intemperate with my comments, and definitely sarcastic.

I've got every sympathy with your issues. The advice for your own safety with respiratory problems would be likely to be total self isolation, for lockdown period, if not for the 12 weeks classed as vulnerable.

I hope you have had the opportunity to speak to either your consultant or NHS 111 regarding your specific conditions and the precautions you should take.

Personally, I am not sure I would be leaving the house. 

The Spanish flu killed more on the 2nd lap around when it mutated. 

It is the balancing act between killing people, but giving them time to travel around a bit first. 

Ebola, being at the opposite end, kills many but folk barely move within a day or two of contracting it. 

Corona viruses aren't influenza viruses, it might not weaken.  

It's worth reading a bit about why, though.  Soldiers coming home from war made a huge difference, that isn't happening this time.

Not really.  A virus doesn't benefit from killing people.  It actually disbenefits, as once it has killed someone that person is no longer spreading it.  It's a side effect of the way it reproduces in its host and how its host's immune system attacks it, depending on how it does this.

The most effective virus in the world would be completely asymptomatic, as it would spread to 100% of the population, pretty much.  There may even be such viruses knocking around that none of us even has a clue exists.  Or perhaps it would just cause coughs and sneezes as they spread it quite effectively.  The common cold is a very effective virus on that basis - if you catch it, you spread it, because you don't stay at home and you don't die.

It might not, but there is a good chance it will, because natural selection favours a virus that spreads easily.  What type of virus it is doesn't overly influence that.

As is so often the case I've seen calls in the previous thread to identify myself as otherwise my comments are just "some gobshites".

Just for some clarity, here's some more official advice.

https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=10221478762224647&id=141867...

At a rough guess air travel shifted many more people around the globe in the weeks after the outbreak in China than returning troopships did over a period of months after the first world war.

https://www.legislation.gov.uk/wsi/2020/353/regulation/8/made?fbclid=IwAR1D...

You cant run twice a day in Wales.. you can in England..

(b)to take exercise, no more than once a day, either alone or with other members of the household;

Plus a very unhealthy population after a long world war, plus many with damaged lungs because of gas damage from fighting in the trenches.

Yes, it appears Wales has gone more specific with their legislation.  They have interestingly also gone for smaller fines.

They also added something to say that authorities MUST close public footpaths if they are posing a risk e.g. Snowdonia last weekend.  England doesn't even have the power to close them optionally, it's closure of car parks and a publicity campaign that has been used there.

The quirks of devolution.

And smoking being near-universal in adult males.

It's said that one reason why the southern European countries have seen a higher rate of bad cases and a higher incidence of issues in males is that that still applies in much of southern Europe.

Reading the legislation you see how it hampers a fast response; everything has to be written in triplicate and each part checked against a different legal framework.  Makes a case for a “federal” level for emergency legislation.

There are billions of viruses. http://www.virology.ws/2013/09/06/how-many-viruses-on-earth/ we are exposed 24/7 to thousands wafting through the air, in the water, on every surface. 

There are at least 3 completely harmless other corona viruses that many of us will have anti bodies for.. but also some less desirable ones. 

It's thought by some that those who have these antibodies of non harmful corona viruses it disadvantages our immune response to covid19, but I doubt if anything is more than speculation for sometime to come.  

There was some statistic that R2 quoted of there being over one million people in the air at any point in time prior to covid19. 

The key word is "could". One of the current hot spots is Gwent, South Wales. A typical UK mix of urban terraced housing and suburban estates in Newport as well as smaller towns/villages. The health board is already advertising for staff due to high sickness rates and the warning a day ago was that they were "mirroring Italy".

That's still very different.

I used to live in various apartments in a German inner city, we shared hallways, doorways, elevator buttons, passed on the stairways. It was much harder to avoid people. We also had communal air.

This happened with the SARS coronavirus in Hong Kong (I think it was), where the virus was passed through airducts. Even between buildings too but mainly within the same apartment blocks.

Here is a paper on it: https://europepmc.org/article/med/15737152

True for England (& Wales ?) but less for Scotland where flats are very common in cities such as Edinburgh & Glasgow

True to some degree, I'm not sure it's as common though. Be interesting if you could somehow get data. But also Scottish tenements are generally much more spacious than the ones in Italy. I lived in various ones in the west end and they were much bigger than the very tight hemmed in buildings in Europe.

I guess we will soon see. The Italian situation was made worse by the mad dash from the cities to the rural areas as restrictions came in.

Just seen this headline on the Independent website "Police dye Peak District 'blue lagoon' black to stop public visiting" Is this also Derbyshire police ?

Yeah, it would have been. It was a few days ago when the weather was really nice. The place is well known, its an attractive LOOKING pool in an old quarry (I think you can go climbing there!). They've died it before because the water quality is really bad, something is leaching out of the soil that makes the water look so blue but isn't healthy.

Yes, and the Diamond Princess has likely been a good example of this with SARS-CoV-2.

Still, the initial exponential growth everywhere seems to be very similar regardless of differences in housing and we're still about 2 weeks behind Italy and 9 days behind Spain.

That's because that initial exponential growth originates from before "lockdown" measures were imposed - there is a considerable lag between imposing measures and their effect.  Not every country is the same - but for example our tendency to packing people into pubs for "vertical drinking" compared with the Romance countries' view that once there's a party at each table the pub's full will have made a big difference.

I suppose the point I was trying to make was that if denser/apartment living was indeed a significant factor in initial spread, the initial exponent would be higher in the countries where it's more common.

Obviously it remains to be seen whether it's a factor under lockdown conditions

I have been wondering how well the travelling community will adapt to travel bans come Appleby Horse Fair, assuming we still have some sort of lockdown in the month leading up to the fair.

I think that’s why they are desperate to get this sorted by the end of May, once it gets into June and people aren’t going away local economies will be destroyed. Plus anyone not on the tax books will likely receive little help.

Lots of locals rent out homes to tourists, even just rooms, never mind all those providing services to tourists, shops, guides. Shops like the Llanberis honey shop. It won’t take long for missed mortgage payments. In the US we’ve been told a second bailout is possible. I’m not so sure. If this continues we will be in a recession, if not depression, and with massive national debt I don’t think there will be much stomach for big bailouts.

Wow the lockdown is working in the peak, just back from bike ride from home, Carparks and cars, Burbage (2) Stanage all three areas (0) Padley Gorge (1) saw more bikes then cars.

I think that is quite good for a Saturday afternoon.

I'm sure the Police will be along in a bit to make the point.

That said, there definitely appears, at present, to be a gathering of 5 people and 2 dogs outside my window and they are not 2m apart.

Its been cancelled for 2020. I suspect those planning to attend will be disappointed but generally accepting of it; the same as me and all those who had intended attending music festivals over the summer (for example)

As usual, rules get progressively more draconian and unreasonable as they pass down the management chain.

I like how you added from home..  

It seemed here it took a few days for people to realize there was a reason for this and it wasn’t just a holiday.

I think it does take a while to sink in with some people, yes.

I wouldn't advocate the French approach of a specified distance from home (not least because most "laypeople" probably don't have a clue exactly what 2km from home is, and it makes sense to allow people to run a local loop and not stop them doing so just because the furthest point is 2.1km from home, but I do think really people should mostly be doing it on foot, i.e. running/walking from their front door, because that keeps people spread out.

What!!!!! There's a new release out so soon? Not much point in getting the Covid19 then. Might as well wait and get the one with the extra features...

That's worse than Microsoft!

Or get a discount on covid19 in autumn... I think they stole the market model off Apple. 

I think the council have been dying it for a while now.  The colour is pretty but it's not a good idea to go in.  https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/trips-and-breaks/buxtons-beautiful-...

Mind you, if people were going to gather anywhere in the Peak for a swim it might actually be better for once if they chose the one place that has bleach instead of water.

Although some people either still haven’t got the message or doesn’t think it applies to them. Why am I not surprised it’s a 2019 Range Rover?

https://www.dailypost.co.uk/news/north-wales-news/snowdonia-visitor-blocked...

There should be no vigilanteism over this - that carries real dangers.  What the concerned local should have done is called the Police himself.

Same happened in Devon to a couple who have a house down there. 
 

It’s madness.

The road into the village near me has “NOT LOCAL? F**K OFF!” sprayed  onto it. (Surpisingly neatly done, and no spelling mistakes, which is actually quite impressive). To be fair just posting a link to the village facebook page would put anyone off visiting the place.

Costa del Harpur Hill - on a sunny summer's day there will be loads of locals there and some will be in the water which is a lovely azure blue because it contains goodness knows what manner of stuff. Bound to be healthy life affirming chemicals so no problem.

You can see the Costa clearly from some of the climbing there.

If they had just reported it to the police do you really think anything would have happened? How could they have proved that he was from out of the area? How would the police have found him? I don’t see this as vigilantism, the farmers simply obstructed him from leaving so that when the Police arrived they could instruct him to go home. No harm no foul.

So they stopped him going home until someone came out and told him to go home...

Hmmm.....

Some people don’t grasp that with rights come responsibilities. This chap obviously needed reminding which is a good thing if he takes it on board.

Except that "the farmers" weren't the ones who called the police.

"Officers attended and suitable words of advice were given."

There are no non-nobheads in that story.  No doubt Mr Range Rover was instructed to go home, but he won't have been the only one given "words of advice".  I hope everybody was listening.

That's called "vigilanteism".  Don't do it.  We don't want to turn this into 28 Days Later.

Mainly the locals at blue lagoon hooning around on bikes etc. They’re totally uninterested in the water at this time of year and the water is blue from leachate from former lime burning. I think it’s so alkaline it could possibly be a cure for Covid19 if you fell in. On a different tack, out for a walk this morn. from home, noted a person bouldering at Rubicon. He’d driven there as car with climbing stickers parked in usual place. I did take a photo.

Not quite. They stopped him going camping in Snowdonia and told him to go back to Sheffield.  

If he'd walked there would that be ok?

It's an area with a serious history of xenophobia, not all at all, I love the place. Over 200 second homes destroyed by fire.

I was joking with a friend that they had to update their signs with COVID-19 on them.

It was very unwise of the driver and I hope he was sent home but I'm not sure its always just for public health reasons. My main issue is I keep hearing and reading comments like 'Keep the disease out' as though it is not already in those communities, which it is. Not traveling is more about not overwhelming health care systems than disease spread, which the models show is pretty insignificant this far into a pandemic. I've friends in NH here who keep going crazy if they see a Massachusetts plate and then post pictures of themselves with someone from outside of their own household. 

Was it outside of Tremadog there was a barn up on the left as you drove from pen y Groes which said "English go Home" or something in white graffiti, and that was in the 90s. But the last house fire by Meibion Glyndŵr was what 1995? 

we should be staying local. That’s not just in regions. That’s local. There’s few reasons to leave your immediate community really. 

I definitely remember one that read (I have a fairly photographic memory of childhood) "Nid yr Cymru ar werth", which means "Wales is not for sale" (referring to second homes).  Somewhere near Caernarfon I think, talking 1980s here.

That the police gave him some 'suitable words of advice' is likely to be code for 'Please observe the directions given by the PM, and don't do things like driving from Sheffield to Bala'.

Going 'hmmm' etc, could seem to be glossing over said fact.

I'd have probably just thoughts 'Humph' and fulminated to myself.

On a driving related note, I've had a couple of close passes from cars coming the other way as it happens, while going through narrow bits of road when cycling, it's like people are speeding up due to less traffic around. It's a pain in the behind. If anybody reading this is unconsciously doing the same thing, please go as slowly or carefully as you always have.

From what I can tell from the news items, he was actually leaving the area and not entering it.
Not defending him, but maybe he'd been in his holiday home, etc. up until then and at the end of his stay just decided to go home as normal.
 

Interestingly the Isle of Man has imposed a blanket 40mph limit, presumably to reduce the issue of people driving faster due to quiet roads.

In the peak seems like a few boy racers are making the most of the quite roads and testing the upper limits of the rev range.

The thread seems to have gone in a slightly strange direction!

Three observations and a conclusion:

- chance of global eradication by containment = zero, therefore no chance in UK either owing to global movements of goods and people

- some chance of vaccine/effective treatment.  However, some time (18 months?) away and then roll-out time additionally.  Lockdown of this severity will have produced utter financial ruin by then.

- the mutability of the virus is unknown and, whilst it is also an RNA virus, that doesn't necessarily mean that C19 will antigenic shift/drift in the same way.

As far as I can see, the only way forward is:

- to buy time now through distancing

- to use that time to adapt health services to accommodate larger numbers of cases and work out optimal protocols

- then to flex the restrictions to keep the facilities just shy of full for as long as is required to generate herd immunity.  I,e, you save those that can recover, but accept those that can't.

- the latter probably means people returning to work, but not to large gatherings, and with obligations on employers to have more spaced workplaces/home working.  Perhaps PPE for tube trips.  Some industries not rescued - pubs, restaurants, cinemas

Good summary.

The other critical step

- Build out much higher testing capability with rapid response test/trace/isolate to allow people to live and work beyond the household whilst rapidly eliminating spread.

A combination of much improved workplace practices and aggressive (as in deep and wide) test/trace is I think the only guaranteed way to not destroy the economy whilst waiting/hoping for a good vaccine or breakthrough cure.  (It’s been pointed out by some that just doing nothing and letting the virus rip would also cripple the economy).  It’s also the only way to support global trade and movement although perhaps now is an opportune moment to look at the climate and health consequences of doing that on the scale we were at.  How much of the economic benefit is cancelled by the external climate costs and the pandemic costs?

Identifying recovered/immune people to act as links between strictly isolated sub communities is also a possibility.

This is my most likely estimate of the government plan.  If they isolate the most vulnerable ~3 million people for 6 months the rest of the population can be pushed through infection to hoped immunity in that time supported by the massive boost to facilities.  It does depend on the rest of the population playing ball and getting infected in the mean time...

I think the police would have spoken to both parties. It seems a case of both side were wrong. 
 

It’s mental on the North Circular. Cars are going well in excess of 50mph, many I’m guessing at 70mph and I think one last night must have been doing 100.

Pubs are the main one due to our "vertical drinking" approach.  Restaurants may well work if they were required to space out the tables more.  Cinemas similarly, if they only operated to a third of capacity and left say two empty seats between each person.

I think if you reopened all the pubs people would quite happily engage in a bit of spreading, if that was actually desirable.

Not sure what news report you read, but here's a picture of him with his camping trailer. And if he has simply said to the locals that he was on his way home, they wouldn't have felt the need to detain him.

https://www.metro.news/showdown-on-snowdon-as-locals-block-camper-in-4x4/19...

Or the churches...  

nah god protects them.

Mostly populated by older people, so it'd probably make more sense to do pubs/clubs.  Not 'Spoons though!

Singapore was on the news again yesterday and it is operating almost as normal for the public. Fast action on cases, contact trace and test, many public 'fever' IR detectors at entry points to buildings, strong border controls and a well behaved population.  It can be done even in a country with high population density.

I think the slow exit from this pandemic will result in much tighter borders until we have an effective vaccine, depressing economic growth as a result (hitting especially hard the airlines, cruise ships and businesses in international tourism).

Yes, I suspect international travel will take far longer to go back to normal - possibly a matter of years.

I normally go to country pubs where I sit in the garden during weather like we currently have. If I was within 2 metres of someone else (apart from anyone I was with) whilst sitting drinking that would be unusually close - 4 or 5 metres was the norm.

Did you see that Russian doctor's comment on the news - good grief.

What news report have you read, to get that second part?  They already had 'detained' him.  Williams said (to the local paper, presumably) "If he hadn't called the police I would have done." 
Well maybe that's true, we can't know that now, we just know that he didn't.

Don't think I'm defending his actions, but of the three bellends in this news story the bloke in the Range Rover was the one who didn't commit a criminal offence.  Bizarrely enough it's not entirely legal to just go around detaining and intimidating people willy nilly on suspicion of not being from around here.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-derbyshire-52095857

I did, yes, thought I misheard and replayed it ... quite frightening

None, just a plausible situation. But i also suspect they were all hyped up and in the mood to "teach this rich bastard a thing or 2", and he was in the "go away little country people, you cant stop me" camp, i.e all 3 were / are tossers. 

I get where you're coming from with that, but in that moment I think it's safe to say he'll have been more in the "shitting his pants" camp.

Makes me worry how quickly some people jumped to shaming each other for driving out for a little wonder in the countryside considering how unprecedented this whole situation is. We have people in parliament calling the police behaviour disgraceful. I'm still not convinced that bouldering in a quiet area with pads and members of your household is any worse than going for a light cross country cycle in the woods away from people. Will be interesting to see how things change in the coming weeks,

We are in this for weeks, probably months, I think some common sense should be shown. Here we have games of basketball and massive house parties still going on. The review on Cochrane says we will not get compliance if we are too restrictive, and I think we are pushing up against that with certain police forces. I spoke to my parents and they were no longer going out walking, so I had to tell them they should be. We should be physically active everyday.

I think it's a choice between not feeling to restricted and additional deaths. 

Italy started with a relaxed quarantine much like the UK has now, then realised over the weeks numbers weren't improving, so in the long run quarantine or lock down will last longer the weaker the measures are.

That actually depends on what the exit is going to be.  

If it's lock-down until eradication, then yes you're right.

If it's lock-down until a vaccine then it'll make little difference.

If it's lock-down until the virus has played itself out, then it's the opposite, it'll take longer the stricter the lock-down.

If it's lock-down until the death rate has stabilised, coupled with adjusting the level of restrictions to keep a stable rate, then it's a mixture of the above.

Or get lock down over the fastest possible, less cases, less nhs strain, less deaths, less damage to economy.

There are additional non covid deaths because operations and cancer treatments are all cancelled, it's not just a matter of accepting 390 covid deaths today because folks need to get out run etc. 

I wouldn't pin any hope on vaccines or it progressively fizzling out. 

You missed the one it actually is, namely a lockdown to stabilise the occupancy of NHS critical care beds and ventilators.

The point is that if you are lucky enough to have woods or crags near your house, a walk orcycle away, crack on. I'm not lucky enough by the way, being confined to roads and pavements.

If you aren't you should seek temporary exercise without getting in the car. Temporary being the operative word.

If the virus continues to spread even local walks  will be restricted.

Salem, Gauleiters, playground bullies etc - anyone who as a kid tried to gain kudos at the expense of a victim

to dogwalkers?

Maybe those shaming their neighbours etc.. have elderly relatives in their house?

The exercise clause will end after Easter when the figures don't improve and because of all the Easter travel, the real peak will be late April. 

We’ll see. The Italian situation was different, much of the spread was pre lockdown, then there’s apartment living. There were pockets of pneumonia before the first official case. It’s also a very old population. The average age of the dead was 80+.

the healthcare system then broke. The national lockdown occurred quite late in the disease spread.

Our local council have now started blocking car parks and footpaths in already rural areas which were frequented by true locals.  

Unsurprisingly the result has been the increase of pedestrians walking with children, dogs and older and less mobile people who initially were well spread out now walking down country lanes. Unfortunately these roads aren’t really designed for pedestrians eg blind bends, no verges and steep hills. This has led to people now coming into direct conflict with cars/vans/tractors. Won’t be long before we have a fatal accident I fear.  

Why say when? 

The US data coming out shows the lock down here is working, with allowing exercise. There is compliance issues but not so much around exercise. In act in Mass we don't have a lockdown, just guidance and we are showing a very similar path to NYC, just a few days behind.

Over the last week NYC has seen a consistent decline in the % of new cases. You can see the data, it may not look a huge change but it shows an end to the exponential growth phase which isn't easy to do. This pattern is exactly what Italy saw. 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_New_York_(state)

This pattern is exactly what Italy saw. 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_Italy

But it is pretty hard to argue the US is not following a similar trajectory to Italy. We will see in the next week if numbers continue to change but so far we have seen a very similar pattern to Italy.

Who knows. 10 days ago I could walk my dog wherever I wanted, could go for a pint with friends, eat out with my family, see my elderly mother etc....

My wife had a job too.

I'd rather people just did what was asked and this will all be over sooner.  

Are you happy that I make the 2 hour round trip to the nearest beauty spot in the Derbyshire Dales?

Which makes my point perfectly...

It's more likely supermarket shopping that is accentuating it, not people going for a run on their own.

or have had their milk curdled or toads falling from their thatch for no apparent reason, or have seen the devil milking their goats?

We are still in very early days of seeing change from the lockdown/policy changes, I'm actually pretty surprised we are already seeing changes in the number of UK cases already, but we seem to be.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/

You can only count the cases you test..  if your lab test limit is say 1000... then you'll never find more than 1000 new cases per day. 

New hospital admissions might be a better benchmark of the spread slowing. Provided the same thresholds or standards for admitting people are maintained. 

Well in Mass we have down graded our projection from 2200 deaths to 1500 deaths, in just 3 days.

the data certainly suggests it’s working.

of course we can ignore data.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

That was the intention of the last of my list.

You're still not specifying an exit strategy, and without that you can't say how long it takes nor how much damage to the economy there is. 

Again, the latter really does not follow from the former.

It's not quite the same as minimising deaths, though, as it accepts there being a number of deaths provided those aren't caused by an unavailability of NHS facilities.  Whereas minimising deaths presumes that you aim to tend the death figure to 0.  The latter requires stronger lockdown than the former.

The exit strategy I heard was we use this time to develop a vaccine (due much later), better treatments, and rapid widespread testing and after the peak has passed we relax controls, maintain social distancing through the summer and take a whack-a-mole approach.

We then bring back social distancing measures, contact tracing and quarantine as required through the summer and fall.

You are an academic in a non medical field.  Would you expect medics of equal training and expertise in their field to know more about your field of expertise than you?

Exit. A slow freeing of areas, regionally based on numbers of cases. Unless the plan is to quarantine the vulnerable etc forever, then the exit has to revolve around near zero new cases etc. 

Factories and work place first, schools too. Forget sports events, weddings, bars etc until next year. There will still need to be non essential travel bans for some time after. 

Foreign holiday, try 2022! 

What kind of hygiene do the bar staff practice?
Last week I witnessed someone collecting glasses and putting them in the dishwasher and picking a clean glass up and pulling a beer for the next customer. 
I also witnessed them taking a dirty glass from a customer, diligently putting it in the dishwasher, getting a clean glass, pouring a beer and moving straight on to the next customer. 

Absolutely.  Lock down hard to minimise deaths -- yes.   Lock down hard so that it will "be over quicker" -- not necessarily, depends on the exit.

What's your point?   My statement that all this depends on the exit strategy is what the epidemiologists are saying.

To what end though? If you’re keeping your distance and not meeting up with people I don’t see what difference it will make. It’s personal contact that causes the problem. And what would trigger an even greater restriction of freedom? Total number of cases which may be concentrated in certain areas e.g. London?

If you have near zero new cases, widespread testing... then exit strategy is less critical? 

I'd imagine most countries will just Google for "proven pandemic exit strategy"? Or perhaps there is at present no right, or wrong answers. 

Whilst in recent times folk have become accustomed to having everything at their finger times, widespread freedom and plenty of folk to blame if x or y in their life is wrong... now we've moved into unprecedented times, the unknown and somethings won't work first time. It's $hit, really $hit for some and it's not going to improve for a while. We'll just have cope and suck it up. 

Which is not quite the strategy the UK is following.  It's following the similar but slightly different strategy of "keep the number of cases down so the NHS can cope, but accept a small number of deaths".

I thought regionally, but Dr Fauci is saying a national release at once. Trump wants a regional freeing as allowed.

Regional is more practical, small areas first, then countries can learn as they go along. Opening up massive cities in one push is risking a new out break. 

Travel only for business first, slowly slowly has to make sense. Gives the health services a chance to breath too. 

It's good to hear about the upsides

In the UK, when we get there, if the main outbreaks remain in London, Birmingham and Hampshire perhaps other places should be released sooner?  There are still a tiny number of cases in some places, e.g. only 11 in Hull.

I think we will try to open before this summer really kicks off. Trump wanted Easter, way too early, I'm guessing the end of May we will start to reduce restrictions but start to open beaches, outdoor seating, travel with masks etc.

Once we have passed the surge in the developed world you can relax travel.

There's an election in November.

Logic would dictate at present any election is cancelled. How can any country campaign or vote. Shift it to 2021.

Yeah I know. It won't happen. 

You'd think so. Pick a geographic area with the best test results, least cases, open it up. Then test and observe. If it doesn't work there, then you know it won't work anywhere. But there has to be travel bans in place nationally otherwise it's pointless, everyone will be trying to sneak to newly opened areas. 

I don't think anything indoors and leisure related; cinemas, sports, bars should open until the whole country is unlocked though. Work places and schools have to be the priority. The same with travelling to climb!! 

I can't see that happening. If a Supreme Court Justice Died it would have an impact for generations.

I think that would require a constitutional amendment, which would take longer and be more hassle than having an election. 

You presume they have a choice. I'd wait for the first western country to successfully emerge from lockdown, before planning anything this year.  

They're not really "planning" it, the timescale is set by constitutional law.

Given Hungary has used the virus to become an effective dictatorship and Poland looks like doing something similar, do really think that would be wise in the US!?

The date might be set but I imagine there is still some level of planning and organising required. Better to just say many months ahead, all events have a lead in time etc. 

Having an election, versus ending a pandemic..  hardly a tough choice. 

So Trump cancels the election, and declares himself President for a second term.  Next election November 2024.

Not what I said. Postponed 1 year. 

Oh, sorry. Still some covid problems. Better wait a bit more... Etc

If folk can't vote without risk of illness, what do you suggest?

Some countries could probably cope with making an election only online or by post between now and then. I don't think the USA is one of them. 

Postal voting?

There are all sorts of possible work arounds and safety measures, and plenty of time to implement them.

This, there's plenty of postal voting now, some states run their primaries via postal voting. I can't see it going online due to data security issues but the postal voting infrastructure is already there.

Thanks, but "apartment living" doesn't strike me personally as a factor - most people in South Korea (where I am staying as I write) and Hong Kong, 2 places that FOR NOW AT LEAST are doing better, live in apartments i.e. high-rise blocks

Just a small point, Roadrunner6, I'm not arguing but wondering

I hope you keep posting, Roadrunner6, all very useful stuff and good to hear from the other side of the pond. I hope you and your family keep safe and well

Thanks, A lot of the eastern countries did lots of testing and containment, contact tracing very early. I'm not sure about South Korea but I know Singapore took that option.

https://time.com/5802293/coronavirus-covid19-singapore-hong-kong-taiwan/

I'm not sure about Korea as this article says they were sluggish, but it talks about Hong Kong and Singapore being better prepared and acting earlier. 

Hope you're well too. Strange times. We're having twins any day which is nicely adding to the stress..

Maybe airlines and cruise ships will be screwed but a year or so out this could be total boom times for electronics, software, robotics and computing.  *If* govenements make sure that people and companies have money to invest.  If they do what they usually do and protect established wealth business will be loaded down with debt and even the companies with the right products will be screwed.

 It could give a huge boost to the transition to a low carbon society where more people work from home, there's more videoconferencing and less international travel, more shopping is done on line and niches like delivery robots and warehouse robots.

One of the interesting things is that with very few human drivers on the roads, self driving vehicles will have a much easier environment and people may actually prefer a taxi without a human driver.  If the lockdown lasts long enough I wouldn't be surprised if some of the companies running trials in California asked for permission to scale up.

For all it being an awful time, I'm pretty excited for a post-coronavirus future.

We are seeing people valuing exercise, health getting out on the trails (which is a good thing for society in terms of health and environmentally awareness), finally working from home (when we have had the capability for a while), family time etc.

Even in schools it might show us standardized tests aren't as important as we think. More and more colleges were stepping away from them anyway but now we will have a big cohort coming out which won't take many of their required exams and so colleges are waiving them.

My wife and I have never spent as much time together or as a family as we have in the last two weeks of this lock down. 

Thanks very much for your reply, and for the link to the time.com article

Come to think of it, the early testing and containment here in South Korea was probably a bigger factor in the local CV-19 status than people living close together here e.g. in apartment blocks (disclaimer - I am, needless to say, a total non-expert in health/ pandemic matters)

PS I like your later post about the "post-coronavirus future"

Coronavirus is like a world war and quite often good things happen after wars because people are determined not to go back to the way things were.

It's worth remembering that Churchill was kicked out of office after WW II.  Even though the Tories were successful in fighting the war they still lost the election and the new government brought in the NHS and many other features of the social state.  The European Union also has its roots in the time after WWII.

After the first world war we got the League of Nations, which although it wasn't successful, was the forerunner of the UN.

The Beveridge report of 1942 led to most of the improvements in welfare etc. Just because Labour took the credit after 1945 doesn't mean most of them weren't actions already passing through parliament before then. 

Ps. Labour did get kicked straight back out and Churchill got a 2nd term. 

I'm in two minds about this. On one hand I can see a Government who will use Covid 19 to excuse Brexit failures, use the increasing sense of social paranoia to tweak public opinion towards the xenophobic end of the spectrum, do nothing about the rapidly evolving two-tier society and, in the name of public safety, cut-by-cut erode liberties. 

On the other hand the public will look at the last 10 (15) years and ask why the NHS was cut to the bone, ask why there was such complacency over planning while the outbreak unfolded, realise that everything remains Londoncentric (e.g. following London's temporary 4000 bed ICU hospital, where's the new 800 bed ICU facility in Birmingham and the 600 bed ICU in Manchester?) and boot them out in favour of a new centrist party.

Sadly one of those seems more likely.

That's for other reasons e.g. testing and quarantine.  Apartment living will almost certainly make a difference - as a house dweller I can go for a run without touching anything at all (other than the floor with my shoes) that others have touched.  An apartment dweller can't, there will be a lot of other points of contact as well as potentially passing people close by in hallways.

Getting back to the original subject of whether some police forces are acting proportionaly or not.

Looks like the police chiefs council and college of policing arent overly convinced.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/31/uk-police-reissued-with-guida...

It does seem it was the rural forces overdoing it, generally speaking, possibly because they're normally not as busy as the urban forces and excited by something "proper" to do!

This whole situation is unusual and has led to action before guidance in several cases.  This is because it is happening faster than the guidance can be provided.  

As for Derbyshire police, they have issued a statement.  It seems they have not arrested fined or summoned a single person for any Corona virus issue.  

All they are guilty of is making an information film which doesn't identify any individuals.  

Hardly a police state.  

Derbyshire may be rural in parts, but it has Manchester on the left, Sheffield to the right and Birmingham to the bottom with Derby in the county.  

Criminals don't stop at boundaries.   

It has massive pockets of deprivation, particularly in ex mining areas.  

It has areas of high drug misuse and all the issues which go with that.  

I can assure you that Derbyshire police aren't short of real work.  

Their chief constable was on the radio, they dye the lake every year anyway, it's incredibly toxic (chemicals leaching out from old works) to stop people going there and being tempted to swim. The fact that they've taken zero cases forward would indicate they want educate and improve behaviour, rather than punish. 

Well yes, the White Paper on founding the NHS was produced by the Conservative health minister in 1944 but they lost the election so the Labour party continued it's introdzuction.

Yeah. I was just pointing out the glory wasn't just one party, especially given that during the war it was less adversarial in parliament. Plus many so called tory MPs of that era were liberal party members up until the 1920s, so they were a lot less right wing than todays tory party.

More of a misinformation film really.

My problem with their 'drone' film wasn't that it's oppressive, it was that it's counterproductive and stupid.

The message they were trying to put out was a wholly reasonable "People of Sheffield, please don't drive out into the Peak to go for a walk."  (Actually they said "Peaks" but lets just not even talk about that.)

To a much wider audience of the people who may be tempted than their twitter account would usually reach, however, the message they unintentionally ended up putting out is "Don't listen to the police, they're overreacting and being stupid and they have no powers to stop you anyway."  Not helping.

That looks like a reasonable balance to me:

"Use your judgment and common sense; for example, people will want to exercise locally and may need to travel to do so, we don’t want the public sanctioned for travelling a reasonable distance to exercise."

The important thing is staying away from others when outdoors, and not touching things that others touch. (And hand washing before and after.)

Fair point.  I think they have been hijacked by people who want to make news out of nothing.  All this nonsense about the dye in the quarry.  It's not destroying a beauty spot.  And Buxton is not in the fells.  Only an idiot would swim there but it seems we have no shortage of idiots.  

I would agree there.  We did need to stop the honeypotting (and to some extent do locally) but there's no sense in saying that someone who, for instance, lives on a 60mph main road with no pavement can't drive somewhere more sensible just up the road for a walk or run.  Those in towns and cities really have no need to do so, though if they're in a very busy area it *may* still make sense.

I'm amused by the media referring to Harpur Hill as a "beauty spot".

Every time Buxton appears in the news I want to visit it.  It's taken on a near mythical status in my imagination.  

It does have a good brewery there.

It's OK.  Quite  a pretty little market town really.  

Yes. I think it is safe to assume moaning Lord whatsisface has never actually been there....

Yes I would agree although I would be biased by the fact its pretty much the line I have been taking all along. I wonder if people are going to put their pitchforks and torches away or just carry on.

This headline made me laugh 

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/travel/destinations/europe/united-kingdom/engla...

I don't own a pitchfork but I'll carry on being very unhappy about the prospect of  a painful and early death, if that's alright with you.

Yeah, I did think that the learned Lord, when he stopped talking about laws and civil rights on the World at One the other day and started muttering about "police destroying beauty spots in the fells" or whatever the direct quote was, clearly hasn't spent much time in disused Derbyshire quarries. Once this all over I'm quite happy to take him to Intake Quarry or Harpur Hill and let him experience some of these "beauty spots"!

I have never seen it dyed, it's just under Harper Hill, you might get a few persons looking at it but never a tourist trap

Only going off what their boss said yesterday when interviewed. He put across a pretty clear argument for all the cases where Derbyshire police were accused of being over the top etc. Much better than those ranting about personal freedoms they want to literally exercise during a pandemic. 

Maybe behind the scenes he's telling some of his officers to cool it, but it's good to see he stood by his staff publically, they've got a tough and awkward job to do over the next few months, selfish members of the public shouldn't be making it harder for them.  

It's been dyed for several years and at least attracts some locals who think it looks appealing. From 2013: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-nottinghamshire-22843481

I agree, sounds a good step. Hopefully the public can be sensible with this now.

But beauty is in the eye of the beholder. Only problem is there are a lot of weird beholders about 😁

Right - thanks - good points

FFS.  I would never have seen this kind of draconian measure coming in Scotland.

https://twitter.com/kenny_mcbride/status/1245294190529064960

Fake news thankfully

You posted that at 1657, therefore you are the fool

Colony bot "I was just about to bite my own bollox ...ffs that was not funny"