/ Election Day 2

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pec 07 Nov 2019
  • Labour announce an extra £150 billion of borrowing on top the £250 billion already announced and the £195 billion for the renationalisation programme, equivalent to £9,000 for every person in the UK. Thus taking borrowing back to levels not seen since the 1960's when we were still paying off war debt. According to the IFS they can't actually spend money that fast.
  • Tom Watson throws in the towel, hounded out of the party by the hard left, thus removing the last obstacle to Corbyn's ideological purge of the party moderates.
  • Ian Austin, Labour party member for 34 years, steps down as MP and encourages his constituents to vote for Boris Johnson saying    "There are only two people who can be prime minister on 13 December: Jeremy Corbyn or Boris Johnson and I think Jeremy Corbyn is completely unfit to lead our country, completely unfit to lead the Labour Party" https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/general-election-latest-boris-johnson-corbyn-austin-quits-labour-today-a9188666.html
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In reply to pec:

"Tom Watson throws in the towel"

Keir Starmer probably has an extra spring in his step this morning.

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MonkeyPuzzle 07 Nov 2019
In reply to pec:

- Sajid Javid looking to take capital investment out of borrowing figures in very "Gordon Brown" like way.

- Johnson's purge already completed by day one so he's outpurged Jeremy Stalin on that one.

- Ian Austin, who campaigned for migrants to go to the bottom of housing lists finally realises he's in the wrong party.

- James Cleverly replaced as Party Chairman by actual chair after it outperforms him in interview with Kay Burley.

Okay, the last one might not be true.

Where are your figures on your first bullet point coming from?

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stevieb 07 Nov 2019
In reply to pec:

Tough choice isn't it.

A party which has comprehensively proven itself unable to run the country over the past nine years, or one which shows all signs of being unable to.

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Stuart (aka brt) 07 Nov 2019
In reply to pec:

> Labour announce an extra £150 billion of borrowing on top the £250 billion already announced and the £195 billion for the renationalisation programme... 

Let me stop you there:

"The Confederation of British Industry has admitted it exaggerated the “eye-watering” £196bn price tag that it claimed Labour’s nationalisation plans would cost."

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/oct/16/cbi-admits-error-in-196bn-price-tag-for-labour-plans

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Gordon Stainforth 07 Nov 2019
In reply to MonkeyPuzzle

> - James Cleverly replaced as Party Chairman by actual chair after it outperforms him in interview with Kay Burley.

> Okay, the last one might not be true.

But it is true. The chair didn't say anything stupid, or behave stupidly.

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john arran 07 Nov 2019
In reply to pec:

> equivalent to £9,000 for every person in the UK.

Always seems a bit odd when borrowing figures are presented like this as though they are costs. Few would bat an eyelid at the idea of borrowing many times more than this per person in order to buy a house, knowing that by doing so, despite the very substantial mortgage interest payments, they would be saving themselves the burden of paying very high rent, while usually enjoying greater freedom to modify their home the way they choose.

It isn't the value of the borrowing that's most important, it's how you plan to pay the interest and what you do with the borrowed funds - which is a different issue entirely.

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Bob Kemp 07 Nov 2019
In reply to pec:

> Labour announce an extra £150 billion of borrowing on top the £250 billion already announced and the £195 billion for the renationalisation programme, equivalent to £9,000 for every person in the UK. Thus taking borrowing back to levels not seen since the 1960's when we were still paying off war debt. According to the IFS they can't actually spend money that fast.

Better sticking to the party of sound economic management then...

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/oct/29/uk-treasury-on-course-to-exceed-this-years-deficit-target-by-16bn

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Bellie 07 Nov 2019
In reply to pec:

Already feeling ill from seeing the intentionally bad design on all the tory banners and logos.  Clearly the work of the Aussie outfit brought in to do what they did down under.  Its a thing apparently to use bad fonts and bad design to appeal to a populist demographic whether ironic or not.  Fecking awful and the hand of Cummings and co at work.  

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Lusk 07 Nov 2019
In reply to pec:

Ian Austin, what a total utter prick!

F*ck off and enjoy your retirement.

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krikoman 07 Nov 2019
In reply to pec:

>  equivalent to £9,000 for every person in the UK.

Ha Ha using the Tory representations to frighten people again, what a ridiculous statistic to use. Trying to make out we'll all be paying £9k is like Jonson saying he the only honest politician.

> Tom Watson throws in the towel, hounded out of the party by the hard left, thus removing the last obstacle to Corbyn's ideological purge of the party moderates.

Hardly hounded, if you read his letter, it was for personal reasons. But obviously you may believe what you like.

> Ian Austin, Labour party member for 34 years, steps down as MP and encourages his constituents to vote for Boris Johnson saying    "There are only two people who can be prime minister on 13 December: Jeremy Corbyn or Boris Johnson and I think Jeremy Corbyn is completely unfit to lead our country, completely unfit to lead the Labour Party" https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/general-election-latest-boris-johnson-corbyn-austin-quits-labour-today-a9188666.html

Is this the same beacon of enlightenment who suggested immigrants go to the bottom of the housing list, they same one who while condemning anti-Semitism is promoting voting for the most overtly racist PM we've probably ever had ( and a party not facing up to it's own allegations of racism), the same bloke that had "irregularities" in his expenses, Who voted against Yvette Cooper's amendment to prevent no deal Brexit, and the same bloke who managed to turn a 17,000 majority into something like 22.

He jumped before he was humiliated by HIS constituents, and any ex-Labour party MP suggesting they vote for the Tories, can be seen as nothing more than a traitor, no matter what he thinks of Corbyn (which were all well aware of) suggesting the Tories will look after the people who need help the most is simply bonkers.

* sorry just realise I repeated some of the above here, but it probably deserves repeating to be honest.

Post edited at 11:30
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what the hex 07 Nov 2019
In reply to Bellie:

Interesting! Do you have a link?

I'm not a Tory fan at all but like looking at discordant fonts/designs.

Also I just read this which echoes back to the rise of the third reich.

"Hitler...puts no limit on what can be done by propaganda; people will believe anything, provided they are told it often enough and emphatically enough, and that contradicters are either silenced or smothered in calumny."

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Propaganda

Some things don't change and now is a dangerous/shameful time in UK's history.

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girlymonkey 07 Nov 2019
Offwidth 07 Nov 2019
In reply to krikoman:

You forgot that Ian was working for the government since July as trade envoy to Isreal.

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krikoman 07 Nov 2019
In reply to Offwidth:

> You forgot that Ian was working for the government since July as trade envoy to Isreal.


I didn't even know that, already taken his 5 pieces of silver then?

Post edited at 13:20
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climbingpixie 07 Nov 2019
In reply to pec:

Have we mentioned the delightful Tory candidate for Broadland yet? The one who said:

"I think women need to be more aware of a man's sexual desire, that when you're in that position that you are about to engage in sexual activity, there's a huge amount of energy in the male body, there's a huge amount of will and intent, and it's very difficult for many men to say no when they are whipped up into a bit of a storm. It's the old adage about if you yank a dog's tail then don't be surprised when it bites you."

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Lusk 07 Nov 2019
In reply to krikoman:

> I didn't even know that, already taken his 5 shekels then?

It had to be done

Have you read his Wiki page?  The guy's a rabid Tory!  Adios Ian.

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Darron 07 Nov 2019
In reply to pec:

Similar situation to 1997. Years of Tory cuts run down public services and labour have to spend to restore and improve them.

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Blunderbuss 07 Nov 2019
In reply to Darron:

Except in 1997 Labour were not led by an economically illiterate cretin...

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Lusk 07 Nov 2019
In reply to Blunderbuss:

Vote a proven racist liar as PM for the next 5 years then?
Good choice!

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pasbury 07 Nov 2019
In reply to pec:

> Labour announce an extra £150 billion of borrowing on top the £250 billion already announced and the £195 billion for the renationalisation programme, equivalent to £9,000 for every person in the UK. Thus taking borrowing back to levels not seen since the 1960's when we were still paying off war debt. According to the IFS they can't actually spend money that fast.

This is over ten tears. The green new deal is a brilliant regenerative idea that could give the UK a huge boost in expertise and marketable products and services, while decarbonising our infrastructure - it should have been done years ago.

Public services need money spending on them or they end up getting worse - as the tories have proved outstandingly.

Renationalisation of strategic industries like power generation and distribution, water supply etc are also sensible. Publicly owned industries can be run just as efficiently as private ones - possibly more so when there are statutory duties put on them and no shareholders to pay.

Labour were going to get my tactical vote anyway, the more policy I see the less tactical it becomes.

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cumbria mammoth 07 Nov 2019
In reply to Bellie:

> Already feeling ill from seeing the intentionally bad design on all the tory banners and logos.  Clearly the work of the Aussie outfit brought in to do what they did down under.  Its a thing apparently to use bad fonts and bad design to appeal to a populist demographic whether ironic or not.  Fecking awful and the hand of Cummings and co at work.  

It's not to be ironic. It's so that opponents will unintentionally amplify the Tory propaganda around their social media circles because when you say let's all have a laugh at this terrible type face you are actually getting people to read the Tory lies. Don't fall into that trap.

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John Stainforth 07 Nov 2019
In reply to Gordon Stainforth:

> In reply to MonkeyPuzzle

> But it is true. The chair didn't say anything stupid, or behave stupidly.

Ha, ha! The chair behaved relatively cleverly!

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timjones 07 Nov 2019
In reply to krikoman:

> He jumped before he was humiliated by HIS constituents, and any ex-Labour party MP suggesting they vote for the Tories, can be seen as nothing more than a traitor, no matter what he thinks of Corbyn (which were all well aware of) suggesting the Tories will look after the people who need help the most is simply bonkers.

Maybe it's time that we all got smarter and stopped supporting the shambolic charade of party politics?

They all take us for fools and party supporters of all shades fall for it time after time.

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Blunderbuss 07 Nov 2019
In reply to Lusk:

> Vote a proven racist liar as PM for the next 5 years then?

> Good choice!

I won't be voting for that cretin either....

All aboard the No Deal express with BJ and his mad ERG passengers

or 

Book yourself on the Bankrupt train with Jezza and his fellow momentum nutcases

No thanks to either...

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krikoman 07 Nov 2019
In reply to Blunderbuss:

> Except in 1997 Labour were not led by an economically illiterate cretin...


Surely, it's the chancellor that does the budgetary calculations, it might be useful if you could support you case that Labour's plans are illiterate.

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krikoman 07 Nov 2019
In reply to John Stainforth:

> Ha, ha! The chair behaved relatively cleverly!


Better than Cleverly.

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krikoman 07 Nov 2019
In reply to Blunderbuss:

> Book yourself on the Bankrupt train with Jezza and his fellow momentum nutcases

At least it'll be a nationalised train and not a privatised one.

And by not voting, you're giving the Tories a better chance of staying in power.

Post edited at 14:23
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Offwidth 07 Nov 2019
In reply to timjones:

As a progressive centrist the only way I can see to get there is to vote to get a minority Labour government where Corbyn is neutered and the parties involved are forced to cooperate. Even for traditional 'wet' style tories the implications of what Boris is doing to their party must be horrifying (why the likes of Mathew Parris has joined the Lib Dems). I can see a realignment of both main parties back to the centre if Boris loses (as a minority amounts to a defeat for Corbyn as well). If Boris wins I can only see division and extremism increasing in the UK.

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Bellie 07 Nov 2019
In reply to what the hex:

Heres the info about the team.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/oct/23/tories-hire-facebook-propaganda-pair-to-run-online-election-campaign

Just keep an eye out for the podium graphics which will change every day - no coherent identity (again, on purpose). 

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Bellie 07 Nov 2019
In reply to cumbria mammoth:

Aye - its ok, its my trade.  And no fear of spreading it apart from highlighting it here... no more Facebook for me anymore.

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Robert Durran 07 Nov 2019
In reply to Offwidth:

> As a progressive centrist the only way I can see to get there is to vote to get a minority Labour government where Corbyn is neutered and the parties involved are forced to cooperate. 

Yes, and I, perhaps opotimistically, think this is the most likely outcome, hopefully leading to a second refernedum as the only way to break the Brexit impasse and then perhaps a second GE to decide on a government. Trying to decide them both with one GE is clearly absurd.

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neilh 07 Nov 2019
In reply to Blunderbuss:

Welcome on board to the middle of the road centrists, there are quite a few of us on UKC.

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krikoman 07 Nov 2019
In reply to Blunderbuss:

> Except in 1997 Labour were not led by an economically illiterate cretin...


they're still better at sums than the Tories, here's Matt Hancock

"If you take away 21,432 police officers and add back 20,000 police officers, how many police officers do you have?"

Matt Hancock, "20,000 more"

"No, you don't"

MH, "yes, you do, that's more"

https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=548497539245640

Post edited at 15:30
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Blunderbuss 07 Nov 2019
In reply to krikoman:

> they're still better at sums than the Tories, here's Matt Hancock

> "If you take away 21,432 police officers and add back 20,000 police officers, how many police officers do you have?"

> Matt Hancock, "20,000 more"

> "No, you don't"

> MH, "yes, you do, that's more"

Must have been getting maths lessons from Dianne Abbott!

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subtle 07 Nov 2019
In reply to climbingpixie:

> Have we mentioned the delightful Tory candidate for Broadland yet? The one who said:

> "I think women need to be more aware of a man's sexual desire, that when you're in that position that you are about to engage in sexual activity, there's a huge amount of energy in the male body, there's a huge amount of will and intent, and it's very difficult for many men to say no when they are whipped up into a bit of a storm. It's the old adage about if you yank a dog's tail then don't be surprised when it bites you."

Strangely enough, this seems to have generated little comment, which is strange

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krikoman 07 Nov 2019
In reply to pec:

Ian Austin, 1 year as a junior minister at DCLG, says he won't vote for Labour. Wall-to-wall coverage.

Ken Clarke, 9 years as Secretary of State, including as Chancellor, says he won't vote for the Conservatives.

Silence.

Balanced election coverage?

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krikoman 07 Nov 2019
In reply to Blunderbuss:

> Must have been getting maths lessons from Dianne Abbott!


Diane Abbott isn't Secretary of State for Health and Social Care

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pasbury 07 Nov 2019
In reply to climbingpixie:

> Have we mentioned the delightful Tory candidate for Broadland yet? The one who said:

> "I think women need to be more aware of a man's sexual desire, that when you're in that position that you are about to engage in sexual activity, there's a huge amount of energy in the male body, there's a huge amount of will and intent, and it's very difficult for many men to say no when they are whipped up into a bit of a storm. It's the old adage about if you yank a dog's tail then don't be surprised when it bites you."

Sexual entitlement eh? A rapists charter.

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Blunderbuss 07 Nov 2019
In reply to krikoman:

> Diane Abbott isn't Secretary of State for Health and Social Care

She would like to be Home Secretary in 6 weeks though!

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pasbury 07 Nov 2019
In reply to Blunderbuss:

She'd make a better one than Priti Patel.

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john arran 07 Nov 2019
In reply to krikoman:

> Ian Austin, 1 year as a junior minister at DCLG, says he won't vote for Labour. Wall-to-wall coverage.

> Ken Clarke, 9 years as Secretary of State, including as Chancellor, says he won't vote for the Conservatives.

> Silence.

> Balanced election coverage?

Can't think where you could have got that from ;-)

https://twitter.com/HackneyAbbott/status/1192389402531704833?s=20

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Lusk 07 Nov 2019
In reply to krikoman:

> At least it'll be a nationalised train and not a privatised one.

At least the Tories are right on one topic ...
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/oct/16/northern-rail-should-be-renationalised-says-grant-shapps-transport-secretary

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Blunderbuss 07 Nov 2019
In reply to pasbury:

> She'd make a better one than Priti Patel.

Both are terrible.....much like the two leaders.

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Lusk 07 Nov 2019
In reply to Blunderbuss:

> Both are terrible.....much like the two leaders.


You need to stop fixating on the leaders.
Corbyn's not the next Stalin who'll be shipping out all the Tories to gulags in the bad lands of Scotland on December 13th.

He'll be gone in a few years time anyway.  You need to look at what the Labour Party as a whole will do to improve the UK.  Look at the state we are in now, and who's been in power for the last nine years?

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MG 07 Nov 2019
In reply to Lusk:

> You need to stop fixating on the leaders.

> Corbyn's not the next Stalin who'll be shipping out all the Tories to gulags in the bad lands of Scotland on December 13th.

What a relief!  As as long as that's this case he gets my vote.

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krikoman 07 Nov 2019
wercat 07 Nov 2019
In reply to what the hex:

It's worse than that as we have automated and directed amplification of lies now

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Blunderbuss 07 Nov 2019
In reply to Lusk:

> You need to stop fixating on the leaders.

> Corbyn's not the next Stalin who'll be shipping out all the Tories to gulags in the bad lands of Scotland on December 13th.

> He'll be gone in a few years time anyway.  You need to look at what the Labour Party as a whole will do to improve the UK.  Look at the state we are in now, and who's been in power for the last nine years?

Well I think his sidekick is even worse....I have seen their policies and think they are nuts. McDonnell's 'we will just borrow more' to fund everything as though this is not a problem in the slightest is like 'student union politics'.

Admittedly I am naturally right of centre but cannot stand BJ either and his cabinet largely repulses me....I'd be more drawn to their domestic policies but am a Remainer and really fear a No Deal exit at the end of 2020.

I'm voting LibDem....

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Lusk 07 Nov 2019
In reply to Blunderbuss:

LibDems are dead in the water.
By vowing to revoke A50 on day one, they're instantly losing half the electorate.

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toad 07 Nov 2019
In reply to pec:

What happens if your mp is the new speaker? Presumably whatever right you thought you had to being represented in parliament is instantly stuffed

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pasbury 07 Nov 2019
In reply to Blunderbuss:

> Both are terrible.....much like the two leaders.

Have you considered thinking about policy?

And by the way I am not a tribal Labour voter.

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pasbury 07 Nov 2019
In reply to toad:

> What happens if your mp is the new speaker? Presumably whatever right you thought you had to being represented in parliament is instantly stuffed

That is just tough luck. I sympathize.

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pasbury 07 Nov 2019
In reply to Blunderbuss:

> Well I think his sidekick is even worse....I have seen their policies and think they are nuts. McDonnell's 'we will just borrow more' to fund everything as though this is not a problem in the slightest is like 'student union politics'.

Debt has value and can be bought and sold. Government debt is special and commands a premium.

Why is it any worse than an entrepreneur borrowing to fund a profit making venture?

Post edited at 18:32
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neilh 07 Nov 2019
In reply to pasbury:

How about the cost of servicing that debt?

As an example

As of Q1 (the first quarter of) 2018, UK debt amounted to £1.78 trillion, or 86.58% of total GDP, at which time the annual cost of servicing (paying the interest) the public debt amounted to around £48 billion (which is roughly 4% of GDP or 8% of UK government tax income).

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summo 07 Nov 2019
In reply to pasbury:

> Why is it any worse than an entrepreneur borrowing to fund a profit making venture?

Because the UK is still balls deep in debt, it's not running an annual surplus, recession is creeping up on much of Europe and the USA.  It won't take much of a down turn for even more debt to be crippling and global confidence in the UK to repay say £3 trillion plus in debt in the future might decline and rates will rise. 

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krikoman 07 Nov 2019
In reply to Blunderbuss:

> I'm voting LibDem....

That'll do you a lot of good in Wakefield

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summo 07 Nov 2019
In reply to toad:

> What happens if your mp is the new speaker? Presumably whatever right you thought you had to being represented in parliament is instantly stuffed

He does come across as a decent bloke, if he sticks to his vow of giving the back benchers a voice, your views might still be heard, not just the cabinet and it's shadow. 

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Blunderbuss 07 Nov 2019
In reply to krikoman:

> That'll do you a lot of good in Wakefield

True but at least i'll feel clean when I leave the polling station... 

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pasbury 07 Nov 2019
In reply to summo:

> Because the UK is still balls deep in debt, it's not running an annual surplus, recession is creeping up on much of Europe and the USA.  It won't take much of a down turn for even more debt to be crippling and global confidence in the UK to repay say £3 trillion plus in debt in the future might decline and rates will rise. 

Do you mean interest rates? That have been close to zero for ten years, as they have been across the whole Western world.

It's not just us.

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Blunderbuss 07 Nov 2019
In reply to summo:

> Because the UK is still balls deep in debt, it's not running an annual surplus, recession is creeping up on much of Europe and the USA.  It won't take much of a down turn for even more debt to be crippling and global confidence in the UK to repay say £3 trillion plus in debt in the future might decline and rates will rise. 

Yep, and the Tories plans to increase borrowing is mad imo....just not as crazy as those of Labour's. 

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kevin stephens 07 Nov 2019
In reply to Blunderbuss

> Admittedly I am naturally right of centre but cannot stand BJ either and his cabinet largely repulses me....I'd be more drawn to their domestic policies but am a Remainer and really fear a No Deal exit at the end of 2020.

> I'm voting LibDem....

As a matter of interest, is that the best tactical anti Brexit vote in your constituency?

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Blunderbuss 07 Nov 2019
In reply to kevin stephens:

> In reply to Blunderbuss

> As a matter of interest, is that the best tactical anti Brexit vote in your constituency?

Absolutely not its a Lab/Con marginal...Morley and Outwood. 

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toad 07 Nov 2019
In reply to pasbury:

My mp ISN'T the speaker. Up until yesterday it was Ken Clarke, no idea about the woman they've parachuted in. Not local and i think a bit brexity but apart from that...

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pec 07 Nov 2019
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pec 07 Nov 2019
In reply to krikoman:

> Ian Austin, 1 year as a junior minister at DCLG, says he won't vote for Labour. Wall-to-wall coverage.

> Ken Clarke, 9 years as Secretary of State, including as Chancellor, says he won't vote for the Conservatives.

> Silence.

> Balanced election coverage?


Shouldn't you credit Diane Abbott if you're going to copy and paste from her?

Anyway, time for a fact check because she's talking b*llocks (as usual)

https://fullfact.org/news/abbott-media-bias/

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Ian W 07 Nov 2019
In reply to pasbury:

> Do you mean interest rates? That have been close to zero for ten years, as they have been across the whole Western world.

> It's not just us.


did anyone see Rishi Sunak, a treasury minister, being interviewed on the beeb this morning? He said that it was a good thing to borrow in order to spend because interest rates were so low.....which is fine, except that he also claimed that interest rates were so low because the economy was so strong because of the rebuiding job the tories have done on public finances over the last 9 years, and that it had nothing to do with structural weakness that requires low interest rates in order to persuade people to borrow.....

He's Chief Secretary to the Treasury, fer chrissake........

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Lusk 07 Nov 2019
In reply to pec:

Hahaha, nice try, not going to rise to that one.
Krikoman has comprehensively covered that subject already.
If I could be arsed, I could trawl up numerous links to Tory racism, but what's the f*cking point, we all know already.

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pec 07 Nov 2019
In reply to pec:

And in the latest installment of day 2 Ian Austin is joined by another ex Labour MP John Woodcock

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/general-election-john-woodcock-back-boris-johnson-tories-corbyn-labour-a9190421.html

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Lusk 07 Nov 2019
In reply to pec:

Another spineless shit.
I vaguely remember his grovelling after he got elected a couple of years ago.
Un-principled light weights, good riddance to them

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john arran 07 Nov 2019
In reply to pec:

> And in the latest installment of day 2 Ian Austin is joined by another ex Labour MP John Woodcock

Shacked up with the editor of The Spectator, guilty of misuse of party assets, accused of sexual harassment. I'd choose your champions more carefully.

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Stuart (aka brt) 07 Nov 2019
In reply to pec:

> And in the latest installment of day 2 Ian Austin is joined by another ex Labour MP John Woodcock

Is he the one who resigned last year and went independent? Gobshite. 

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pasbury 07 Nov 2019
In reply to Blunderbuss:

Then I recommend you vote Labour.

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johang 07 Nov 2019
In reply to summo:

> Because the UK is still balls deep in debt, it's not running an annual surplus, recession is creeping up on much of Europe and the USA.  It won't take much of a down turn for even more debt to be crippling and global confidence in the UK to repay say £3 trillion plus in debt in the future might decline and rates will rise.

And cutting encourages growth? And rates are going to rise? I doubt both of those.

For god's sake. The government is not a household. Bretton Woods ended in 1971 and since just after then we have run on a fiat currency -- literally "let it be done".

At this risk of being called a lunatic leftist, our real constrains are person-power, resources and training. Money is not scarce. The bank bail out in 2008 should have taught everybody that, but for some reason we all swallowed the austerity myth, and now here we are, arguing about bullshit 10 years down the line.

The plan of renationalising natural monopolies is a good idea. The money spent by the government is not lost, as many are often lead to believe, it buys assets. Those assets have value, and, if they're run for society, rather than for a few shareholders, then society should see more benefit from said natural monopolies. Why do you think there's resistance to letting these services leave private ownership? It's not because they make a loss.

The green new deal and investment in public services is vital at this moment in time. £ price really should be a secondary consideration after dealing with the climate crisis and [for want of a better phrase] the welfare crisis (until we have things back under control). 

Just to finish - the UK government doesn't need to borrow to fund things. But there is a line of thought which says that the government has a duty to be the borrower of last resort. The government does need to tax however, although not to fund its expenditure, but to cool the economy where required, to ratify the value of its currency, to encourage/discourage various behaviours and to encourage political engagement.

And to finish, finish - have a think about where the government money which is spent into the economy via workers goes. It doesn't disappear into a black hole. A lot of it comes back as -- wait for it -- tax revenue!

In before Weimar/Zimbabwe/Venezuela. (although thinking about it, if we capitulate to the US, we could easily end up like that...)

As ever, awaiting the dislikes...

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Blunderbuss 07 Nov 2019
In reply to johang:

Total nonsense... 

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pec 07 Nov 2019
In reply to Lusk:

> Another spineless shit.

> Un-principled light weights, good riddance to them

Corbyn has turned Labour into the nasty party, an institutionally racist, neo Marxist cult and all you can do is shoot the messenger.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EIxIYZ4WsAEqjzh.jpg

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MonkeyPuzzle 07 Nov 2019
In reply to Blunderbuss:

> Total nonsense... 

F*cking hell, Cicero, that's him told.

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Lusk 07 Nov 2019
In reply to pec:

Hahahahaha, you're just taking the piss now.
Imagine, if you can, you choose a career in politics, presumably that one has a hard core belief in your party's core policies and a truly heartfelt dislike for the oppositions' ideals and then you do a 180 degree turn.

To repeat, empty spineless shits. They've had their day of fame.
Tomorrow ...... who?

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Blunderbuss 07 Nov 2019
In reply to MonkeyPuzzle:

> F*cking hell, Cicero, that's him told.

Why use a thousand words when two will suffice... 

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pec 07 Nov 2019
In reply to Lusk:

> Imagine, if you can, you choose a career in politics, presumably that one has a hard core belief in your party's core policies and a truly heartfelt dislike for the oppositions' ideals and then you do a 180 degree turn.

Its not Austin and Woodcock who've done the 180 turn though is it. Its the Labour party who changed from a reasonably sensible, centrist, credible party of government into the nasty party under the "leadership" of a Britain hating, terrorist sympathising, anti-semitic Marxist.

>To repeat, empty spineless shits.

That would be the 80% of Labour MPs who voted no confidence in Corbyn (172 to 40 remember) and have stood by as he destroys their party but haven't had the balls to do anything about it.

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Dave the Rave 07 Nov 2019
In reply to pec:

I’m a labour voter and don’t care which way Brexit goes, but any Cnut that is trying to buy my vote with that debt can go away/) 

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Lusk 07 Nov 2019
In reply to pec:

Ah, I think we've arrived at an insurmountable impasse here.

To me, nationalized utilities, hundreds of thousands of cheap social housing, to name two; sound like perfectly reasonable options to me. But what the f*ck do I know, being a Jew hating Marxist!

Sorry for the repetition, what has nine years of Toryism given us?
It's getting late, I'll save your brain power ... One f*cked up country.

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summo 07 Nov 2019
In reply to johang:

> For god's sake. The government is not a household.

There is a difference between borrowing to invest and borrowing just to spend on political ideals. 

>  Money is not scarce. The bank bail out in 2008 should have taught everybody that,

It's not scarce, the UK has tons of debt.

> but for some reason we all swallowed the austerity myth, and now here we are, arguing about bullshit 10 years down the line.

The UK barely had austerity. You want austerity look at Greece, or Spain's youth unemployment etc.. 

> The plan of renationalising natural monopolies is a good idea. The money spent by the government is not lost, as many are often lead to believe, it buys assets. Those assets have value, and, if they're run for society, rather than for a few shareholders, then society should see more benefit from said natural monopolies. Why do you think there's resistance to letting these services leave private ownership? It's not because they make a loss.

You know many of those shareholders are people's pensions are..  It's not just money that disappears into mystical funds. 

> The green new deal and investment in public services is vital at this moment in time. £ price really should be a secondary consideration after dealing with the climate crisis and [for want of a better phrase] the welfare crisis (until we have things back under control). 

The reality is if you want better health, education and fight climate change everyone needs to be financially poorer. 

> And to finish, finish - have a think about where the government money which is spent into the economy via workers goes. It doesn't disappear into a black hole. A lot of it comes back as -- wait for it -- tax revenue!

If all you had to do was to borrow and spend, Greece, Spain, Italy, Ireland, Cyprus etc would have had the best economies in the world. 

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Ian W 07 Nov 2019
In reply to summo:

> There is a difference between borrowing to invest and borrowing just to spend on political ideals. 

> If all you had to do was to borrow and spend, Greece, Spain, Italy, Ireland, Cyprus etc would have had the best economies in the world. 

And those two sentences sum it up; borrowing to invest is definitely not what Greece and Spain did. Spain especially borrowed to fund regional vanity projects (Valencia has 2 international airports, one of which has had zero international air traffic, and also has 2 F1 standard tracks, one of which is no longer in use (the semi-street circuit). Greece borrowed to fund a current account deficit, which eventually bit them on the backside when they lost the ability to devalue the Drachma).

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kevin stephens 07 Nov 2019
In reply to Dave the Rave:

> I’m a labour voter and don’t care which way Brexit goes, but any Cnut that is trying to buy my vote with that debt can go away/) 


You should care very much whether Brexit goes ahead.  Brexit will have a massive detriment to the economy

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pec 07 Nov 2019
In reply to Lusk:

> Sorry for the repetition, what has nine years of Toryism given us?

An economy that's no longer on the edge of an abyss, unlike the one they inherited from Labour. Although in fairness, if that Labour government had won in 2010 they might have done the same because they were promising cuts along the same line as the Conservatives and Lib Dems for that matter.

Remember?

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2010/mar/25/alistair-darling-cut-deeper-margaret-thatcher

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pasbury 07 Nov 2019
In reply to pec:

> Corbyn has turned Labour into the nasty party, an institutionally racist, neo Marxist cult and all you can do is shoot the messenger.

Oh come on do you really think that, or are you just trying to raise the stakes in some kind of bullshit poker game.

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pasbury 07 Nov 2019
In reply to summo:

> There is a difference between borrowing to invest and borrowing just to spend on political ideals.

That's why Labour's plans seem a lot more honest than the Tories.

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Lusk 07 Nov 2019
In reply to pec:

Again, nice try. Another hypothetical.

I notice that Osborne is in there, doom mongering, the same Osborne that was planning the Apocalyptic saving, post Brexit Autumn budget

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Dave the Rave 07 Nov 2019
In reply to kevin stephens:

In a positive or negative way ? How do you know? It’s never happened before?

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kevin stephens 07 Nov 2019
In reply to Dave the Rave:

A massive negative effect.  I know because working for a wide range of large manufacturing companies I have a good understanding of how their prosperity, future investment and employment of a large skilled  well paid workforce depends on seamless integrated supply chains across the EU

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pec 07 Nov 2019
In reply to pec:

Ooh look, another former Labour MP Tom Harris has backed the call to vote for the Conservatives, the third today!

When will it end?

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/vote-tory-urges-former-labour-mp-ian-austin-nk52kpmng

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pasbury 07 Nov 2019
In reply to pec:

None of them seem to have made any substantive comments about Labour Party policy.

Are they all just chewing on sour grapes?

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Lusk 08 Nov 2019
In reply to pec:

Haven't we done him earlier? Anyway, another spineless shit gone

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pasbury 08 Nov 2019
In reply to pec:

> An economy that's no longer on the edge of an abyss, unlike the one they inherited from Labour. Although in fairness, if that Labour government had won in 2010 they might have done the same because they were promising cuts along the same line as the Conservatives and Lib Dems for that matter.

> Remember?

Perhaps they wouldn’t have targeted the most vulnerable to balance the books.

Plus do you really think we aren’t on the edge of an abyss now? 

Post edited at 00:06
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Gordon Stainforth 08 Nov 2019
In reply to neilh:

> Welcome on board to the middle of the road centrists, there are quite a few of us on UKC.

I think that is something to do with being a climber, which is all about balance. We spend a lot of our time (outside climbing) following a complex horizontal arete that sometimes seems perilously narrow, with an abyss of extremism on our left and our right.

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Offwidth 08 Nov 2019
In reply to Gordon Stainforth:

Good stuff. The abyss looks scarier when the weather takes an unexpectedly turn  for the worse but panic is never a good response.

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neilh 08 Nov 2019
In reply to Ian W:

Unfortunately he is right. The interest rates that govt pay is linked to the Uks excellent credit rating and the money markets view of the economy. 

It is why Greece or Argentina pay such a high rate as a counter example 

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neilh 08 Nov 2019
In reply to johang:

Nationalisation of the railways could be done at low cost. You just take over the franchise  when they run out.

The others cost a lot more as they will have to be bought at market price and you wonder if it is good value when the same money could be directed  to schools or hospitals or roads instead.

whether the govt will then be able to afford to continue to invest in those nationalised industries is debatable. Past experience suggests not. 

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Offwidth 08 Nov 2019
In reply to summo:

When you combine spending plans with the economic effects of brexit the parties are little different in cost but the Labour spending generates assets. Spending when the ecomony is struggling (iit still is) and interest rates are low is good Keynsian economics. 

The boris brexit plan is estimated to cost about £70 billion (apologies for the marxist Corbyn biased link ;-)

https://politicshome.com/news/uk/economy/economic-growth/news/107648/boris-johnsons-brexit-deal-worse-economy-theresa-mays

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neilh 08 Nov 2019
In reply to toad:

You mean Hoyle.  The son of Doug Hoyle former MP for Warrington North. Another example of nepotism in safe seats. 

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wbo2 08:05 Fri
In reply to pec:: Point 1 to bear in mind is that if you DON'T borrow to invest , what's the cost of that?  A brave new future on 50 year old infrastructure.....

Point 2 - re. interest rates - interest rates being low is great for immediate borrowing cost, but means you can't 'disappear' your old debts via inflation so there are pros and cons to high/low interest rates.

You will have a tough time convincing me that the Tories have a strong grip of econonomics bases on the last decadeish. They actually strike me as extremely naive on this account

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pasbury 08:24 Fri
In reply to neilh:

> whether the govt will then be able to afford to continue to invest in those nationalised industries is debatable. Past experience suggests not. 

They were deliberately run down under Thatcher before the fire sale of national assets.

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summo 08:25 Fri
In reply to Offwidth:

I wasn't suggesting not investing; health, education, rail, fibre /4g all have some catching up to do in global terms.

The debate is do you need to own an asset long term and carry out it's day to day management. Government and civil servants don't have a great track record. Costs usually rise, efficiency declines etc. McCluskey will be knocking on Corbyns door every day pushing for pay rises.

People will cite east coast mainline but it was very short term, it's over time the problems will arise. 

It might be better for the Government to progressively become major share or stakeholders in more critical assets, but not to the scale where it discourage private investment and expertise. 

Post edited at 08:26
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summo 08:30 Fri
In reply to pasbury:

> They were deliberately run down under Thatcher before the fire sale of national assets.

Most industries were under invested in from the 60s onwards. Union power meant they were entirely focused on volume of the work force, not the costs and efficiency of their given role. They avoided modernisation whilst the rest of the world advanced.

You should read about Michael edwardes who turned around BL. 

Post edited at 08:30
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krikoman 08:46 Fri
In reply to pec:

> Shouldn't you credit Diane Abbott if you're going to copy and paste from her?

> Anyway, time for a fact check because she's talking b*llocks (as usual)

Here's his own words, slightly different from Abbott's quote I'll give you, but that all depends on where they are in relation to his opinion on where they moved to on the right-wing scale!

"I'm not voting for some crazy right-wing nationalist organisation calling themselves a Tory government, but that I think is laying it on a bit, I don't think that will be where we wind up."

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gimmergimmer 08:59 Fri
In reply to Lusk:

It was actually thirty pieces of silver. This was the reputed amount that Judas received to betray Jesus Christ. Not a helpful metaphor to use here in the context of antisemitism, labour, Israel etc. Has been an antisemitic trope over the Jewish treatment of Christians overt he centuries. 

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Offwidth 09:47 Fri
In reply to summo:

Yet these days most public sector organisations are run by independant management,  not directly under the civil service. Problems will arise under any mangement thats why you need management but most feel the East Coast main line was much better under the public sector and twice, even some tories.

I note you ignore the similar projected overall costs of both main parties proposals and the fact the tories are wishing for future benefits of their planned brexit while holding much less real assets for their expenditure and additional costs.

Post edited at 09:49
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Offwidth 09:56 Fri
In reply to gimmergimmer:

I'd agree. Yet working with a pretty nasty right wing zionist government, who's leader is accused of corruption, is a big step for an ex Labour MP to make.

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neilh 10:53 Fri
In reply to pasbury:

If that is what you believe then nothing will change your mind. In all honesty its not the past that counts it is what happens in the future.

If it was me I would not spend the money on capital projects ( we went through that just before 2008). I would spend it on maintenance and repairs.Better return on investment, faster improvements.Its just it does not appeal to vanity seeking politicians.

I also laugh at this idea there is no investment going on in for example the North West. Anybody driven on all the new by passes.?Anybody seen what is going on in Manchester?Anybody driven on the M6.What about Manchester Airport- £ 1 bn being invested there already.

Its not as though its low at the moment.

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Ian W 11:02 Fri
In reply to neilh:

> Unfortunately he is right. The interest rates that govt pay is linked to the Uks excellent credit rating and the money markets view of the economy. 

No he isn't. The reason interest rates are lowered in a weak economy (like much of the world at the moment) is to try to persuade people to invest their cash to get a return rather than to just hold it on deposit. The low interest rates over the last years have been one of the drivers of the levels of Quantitative Easing we have seen - once interest rates are so low it is ineffective to lower any further, pumping new money into the economy is one of the few means of providing a stimulus.

> It is why Greece or Argentina pay such a high rate as a counter example 

the base rate in Greece is 0%, https://tradingeconomics.com/greece/interest-rate.

the base rate in Argentina is 67.03%. Those two countries are facing very different issues.

and the uk's credit rating is not excellent

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/rating

Post edited at 11:07
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Ian W 11:09 Fri
In reply to summo:

> You should read about Michael edwardes who turned around BL. 

Well that went well for BL, didn't it...........

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neilh 11:21 Fri
In reply to Ian W:

Uk s credit rating has been mixed, but there is no guarantee that this will continue, and it is has a direct bearing on the interest we pay.

There is this wild assumption that there is almost no cost to borrowing, it is just not true, just because interest rates are low. You only have to look at how much we already pay in interest to figure this out. Its a huge amount and even a tiny change costs billions in extra money. This has to come from somewhere. It comes from money which could easily go to social security, pensions etc and the day to day running costs.

The amount of interest we cuurently pay a year is openly available ( its a huge amount) . It sucks money away from other government services.If people think its near zero then they are in for a big shock.

£48 billion in 2018( Wikipedia).That is in the current low interest market on current national debt.

.£48 billion which could have gone to social security for example.

Lets not kid ourselves that there is no cost.

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Ian W 11:38 Fri
In reply to neilh:

The Uk's credit rating has traditionally been excellent (AAA and all that), but has been downgraded in recent years (from 2015) by all 3 of the credit rating agency's, and it currently has a negative outlook with 2 of the 3. https://tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/rating

You seem to be mixing up types of borrowing. The borrowing of the government, that has been growing as a result of our current account deficit has led to the £48bn annual interest payment, has nothing to do with low interest rates. We as a nation seem happy to buy more than we sell; our economy does generate the funds to service the debt, but it cant go on for ever. The way to get out of this is either sell more than you buy, or raise further funds through taxation. The UK is a very low tax country compared to pretty well all other developed nations, but we expect our public services to be at least as good as everyone else's. this is simply not sustainable. 

A low base rate has nothing to do with national debt, or the interest payable thereon. Borrowing money to invest because it is cheap, or diverting money away from deposits and into securities (of whichever kind) does not increase the nations debt service cost. It helps stimulate the economy, and (hopefully) generates tax revenue paid as a result of the increased economic activity, which will help reduce the deficit (and hopefully as a corollary the overall level of debt) and hence the debt service cost.

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neilh 11:57 Fri
In reply to Ian W:

Understand all that, it really is nothing new.

If you want a better perspective go back to Vince Cable and ask him the effect of a marginal interest rate change on how much it costs the govt to service the debt and where it come from..Paranoia envelopes the Treasury over these issue, and it is wise not to make the same mistakes as in previous govts( both Labour and Cons).

Hammond has done  goodt job of getting these figures to manageable levels. Its now like kids in a sweetie shop on both sides.Anybody who steps back and has a hard think about it will be able to figure out it will come back to haunt us if its a free for all on this.Great for the first few years.

Crazy on both sides.

Post edited at 11:59
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Ian W 12:16 Fri
In reply to neilh:

> Understand all that, it really is nothing new.

Indeed its not; your posts however showed / inferred strongly that you did not understand it.........

> If you want a better perspective go back to Vince Cable and ask him the effect of a marginal interest rate change on how much it costs the govt to service the debt and where it come from..Paranoia envelopes the Treasury over these issue, and it is wise not to make the same mistakes as in previous govts( both Labour and Cons).

such as this when he argued for more borrowing to stimulate growth (albeit very targeted). I've had a quick google for what you referred to but couldn't find anything.........can you point me towards it. And apologies for the Torygraph link..

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/9914520/Vince-Cable-calls-for-more-borrowing-to-spur-growth.html

> Hammond has done  goodt job of getting these figures to manageable levels. Its now like kids in a sweetie shop on both sides.Anybody who steps back and has a hard think about it will be able to figure out it will come back to haunt us if its a free for all on this.Great for the first few years.

Agree - its election time, and its "we'll do more than they will, only much better". They are all talking shit. At least labour are honest (ish) about their shit. If the tories actually believe what they say and carry it out, we are all deep in it.

> Crazy on both sides.

Not wrong there.....

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neilh 12:19 Fri
In reply to Ian W:

Well we agree

So let us not have to goggle repetitive articles proving a point.

Smiles.

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summo 12:25 Fri
In reply to Offwidth:

I wasn't suggesting the Tory model was right. The lib Dem proposal of putting up tax to fund services better Is more my thinking. A politician has to one day say you get the services you pay for and can't keep kicking the can down the road. 

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Offwidth 12:41 Fri
In reply to summo:

Yet the only choices at present seem to be a tory majority or a Labour minority government, where Labour's plans will have to be modified to get through Parliament. The key difference will be made in about 40 Labour marginals in the north and midlands where Lib Dems are usually too far behind to count. For anyone who wants a return to centrist politics, without the severe damage to our economy the hard brexit will cause, it seems to me the Labour minority is a necessary step on the way.

John Crace's take on all this is always interesting:

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2019/nov/08/parliament-dissolves-to-make-way-for-false-election-promises

Post edited at 12:47
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Ian W 12:57 Fri
In reply to neilh:

I always thought that Cable would have been a much better chancellor than osborne (mind you, i'd have probably been better than Osborne......) - similar in outlook to Darling, who had steered a very careful course through unbelievably choppy waters from 2007 on. Osborne really was the start of the decline, and the point we find ourselves at now.

Still would be interested in that Cable link - not getting at anyone, but interested in his thoughts over that period. At least it proves he is very much the pragmatic businessman who accepts that sometimes you have to change your view, rather than the dogmatic politician.

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neilh 13:13 Fri
In reply to Ian W:

Osborne was ahead of the curve politically. He was advocating a drive into the Labour heartlands when in power and had really grapsed the nettle of the Northern Powerhouse concept.Against the wishes of Labour Ho local Labour policiticans took on board his interest in the North and worked with him.

It is why in manchester etc there has been new road developments etc, all of which were started years ago in his time.

He should have stayed in politics.

I appreciate you have a diiferent view.

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gimmergimmer 13:43 Fri
In reply to pec:

Are there any economists out there who can clear this up for me as I only have what I think is a basic grasp of it. Labour(John McDonnell) announces £400 billion in 'investment. Plus Re-nationalisation cost. McDonnell argues that borrowing for capital investment then becomes an asset which balances what you have built/made/spent. Up to a point makes this  sense but if you take it to its logical ad absurdem  conclusion the government could borrow to buy us all gold plated bath taps which McDonnell would say  would be an asset so the books would balance -so there must be a limit to this. My commonsense suggests it would depend on whether that asset has real value to the economy  e.g. a new transport link which boosts the local economy which then produces growth/tax etc. A lovely new old people's home-no matter how decent or reasonable seems to me less of a national book keeping asset to the economy  then say a new transport link.  Under Mcdonnell's argument they would equally add to  national assets. In addition there is of course the risk that there are  interest rates which everyone seems to think will stay low. But some kind of Brexit or uncertainty could lower the pound, borrowing pressure could increase interest rates, plus investors actions (rightly or wrongly) on a labour victory could cause a run on sterling-all causing borrowing costs to rise. I am a labour party member but the scale of these borrowing promises scares me somewhat. I do understand that they are partly making up for the austerity years. Thank you.

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Offwidth 13:59 Fri
In reply to gimmergimmer:

It's close to a 'pipe dream' as there is currently only a very small chance they can get a majority and no minority government would get support for that level of extra spending. In contrast just the cost of Boris' s brexit is estimated at £70billion over a decade and brings in no assets, they have big spending plans too, and a Boris majority is quite likely (just a bit less than a Labour minority government in my view). If you must worry its best to focus on the most likely outcomes.

Post edited at 14:00
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neilh 14:34 Fri
In reply to Offwidth:

The counterview is put forward by the Economist along the lines of the cost of Brexit pales when compared the disaters of the economic masterplan of the Labour Party.Neither option being at all palatable.

They have swung behind the Liberals.

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In reply to gimmergimmer:

> Are there any economists out there who can clear this up for me as I only have what I think is a basic grasp of it. Labour(John McDonnell) announces £400 billion in 'investment. Plus Re-nationalisation cost. McDonnell argues that borrowing for capital investment then becomes an asset which balances what you have built/made/spent. Up to a point makes this  sense but if you take it to its logical ad absurdem  conclusion the government could borrow to buy us all gold plated bath taps which McDonnell would say  would be an asset so the books would balance -so there must be a limit to this. My commonsense suggests it would depend on whether that asset has real value to the economy  e.g. a new transport link which boosts the local economy which then produces growth/tax etc. A lovely new old people's home-no matter how decent or reasonable seems to me less of a national book keeping asset to the economy  then say a new transport link.  Under Mcdonnell's argument they would equally add to  national assets. In addition there is of course the risk that there are  interest rates which everyone seems to think will stay low. But some kind of Brexit or uncertainty could lower the pound, borrowing pressure could increase interest rates, plus investors actions (rightly or wrongly) on a labour victory could cause a run on sterling-all causing borrowing costs to rise. I am a labour party member but the scale of these borrowing promises scares me somewhat. I do understand that they are partly making up for the austerity years. Thank you.

The limit is the risk of causing high inflation because the debt of a soverign government is the same thing as printing money. If the economy continues to grow then that increased money supply can be spent in more items so no inflation. If the economy contracts then there is less to spread the increased money supply on so inflation occurs.

Keeping citizens fit and healthy helps grow the economy just as new transport does.

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Offwidth 15:52 Fri
In reply to neilh:

I have no faith in Labour's plans but they can only happen if elected with a clear majority and that looks like a tiny possibiliy. When you are forced into fghting off a bear you don't worry that there is a 2% chance that a storm might come later.

Post edited at 15:53
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Ian W 15:55 Fri
In reply to neilh:

> The counterview is put forward by the Economist along the lines of the cost of Brexit pales when compared the disaters of the economic masterplan of the Labour Party.Neither option being at all palatable.

> They have swung behind the Liberals.

so a group of people who "know what they are talking about" - experts to you and me, have dismissed both the Tories brexit dream and labours outspend / outinvest (delete as applicable) plans as both being pretty much equally disastrous. You probably think labours is more disastrous, I would say the tories is worse, but clearly they are both , err, "not optimal". Up until the point that Gove comes out (he's been a bit quiet of late, hasn't he?) and dismisses them as mere experts, with no common sense (Trademark JR-M, Nov 19), we have the best option according to the economist as being the lib dems stay where we are , and do relatively little to the economy.

Who'd have thought it? When will the extremists learn........

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neilh 16:13 Fri
In reply to Ian W:

Both bad....as I have said all along in previous earlier posts.

Disasters waiting to happen.Unpalatable.

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The New NickB 16:16 Fri
In reply to pasbury:

> She'd make a better one than Priti Patel.

That’s rather faint praise!

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Offwidth 17:04 Fri
In reply to The New NickB:

Latest .... Boris doesn't even understand his own deal (or is maybe lying about it to avoid complaints?)

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/nov/08/boris-johnson-goods-from-northern-ireland-to-gb-wont-be-checked-brexit

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Dr.S at work 18:11 Fri
In reply to summo:

Surely what we should do is put up taxes to pay for extra borrowing?

We need substantial upfront investment to transform the economy for the zero carbon age - if we had a hypothecated tax (national investment tax) to pay off the borrowing we need to make then it might be a good way to manage the situation.

How much borrowing does a penny on income tax let us make?

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The New NickB 19:29 Fri
In reply to Dr.S at work:

Good question. 1p on income tax will raise £6-7bn. Based on the ratio between our current national debt and money needed to service that debt (interest and repayment), it would support £110-120bn of debt. That of course ignores any economy growth and tax receipts generated through that investment, which is the more interesting, but more difficult to answer question.

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pasbury 20:24 Fri
In reply to The New NickB:

Here’s my thought experiment on a new green deal, that £6-7 billion per year raised by an income tax increase of 1p would pay for investment in solar, tidal, geothermal, air source, and offshore wind generation. The knowledge gained would make the U.K. a world leader in what is going to be a growth market and also insulate us from price shocks in fossil fuels.

We really really should have started on this path twenty years ago. It’s been a massive missed opportunity.

Similar intelligent investment in other progressive engineering fields will pay dividends.

I like the fact that the Labour Party are even suggesting these progressive policies, implementing them is, of course, a different matter. But unless a government is given a chance to try to do something clever how will we ever know if it’s possible, a good idea or an effective policy.

Post edited at 20:30
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summo 21:07 Fri
In reply to Dr.S at work:

> How much borrowing does a penny on income tax let us make?

Not enough. 

Some economists estimate just for the nhs to keep pace with population longevity, expensive equipment, bigger battles like diabetes it needs a 3% increase on the base rate alone. That leaves, improving education, infra structure, green projects etc. Before you even consider eating away at any natuonal debt. 

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summo 21:11 Fri
In reply to pasbury:

> Here’s my thought experiment on a new green deal, that £6-7 billion per year raised by an income tax increase of 1p would pay for investment in solar, tidal, geothermal, air source, and offshore wind generation. The knowledge gained would make the U.K. a world leader

It would be a world leader if it did it 30 years ago. 

Tidal is the only one not fully developed and there already are multiple research projects off the top of Scotland  

> We really really should have started on this path twenty years ago. It’s been a massive missed opportunity.

Precisely. Perhaps better to further target carbon capture and existing fusion projects. 

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pasbury 21:17 Fri
In reply to summo:

> Precisely. Perhaps better to further target carbon capture and existing fusion projects. 

No. Because they are reactionary policies. Better to start late and proceed with intent than to be sidetracked.

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summo 21:27 Fri
In reply to pasbury:

> No. Because they are reactionary policies. Better to start late and proceed with intent than to be sidetracked.

No point researching what folk have been using elsewhere for decades, it's just reinventing the wheel  .. just buy the finished developed product from them and focus your r&d money on the challenges of the future.  

Edit.. It's not side tracked. There are prototype fusion power units in the UK which part of an international project are being scaled up in France. It's not a distraction, it's real science. 

Post edited at 21:29
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pasbury 22:18 Fri
In reply to summo:

> Edit.. It's not side tracked. There are prototype fusion power units in the UK which part of an international project are being scaled up in France. It's not a distraction, it's real science. 

So is Hinkley Point. Is this the centralised, risky, massively front loaded (and expensive) way we should go?

And yes the renewable tech is mature in many areas but not properly integrated in national policies on house building, public & private transport infrastructure, national grid infrastructure etc, this is where the opportunity for innovation lies. 

Post edited at 22:25
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summo 06:27 Sat
In reply to pasbury:

> So is Hinkley Point. Is this the centralised, risky, massively front loaded (and expensive) way we should go?

I said buy proven tech. We all know that reactor types isn't proven. 

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summo 07:31 Sat
In reply to pasbury:

> And yes the renewable tech is mature in many areas but not properly integrated in national policies on house building, public & private transport infrastructure, national grid infrastructure etc, this is where the opportunity for innovation lies. 

Maybe in the UK. Many countries have been using it on a local and national level for decades. It's only the UK that gets all excited when somebody isn't heating their home with a gas powered high temp wall mounted radiator system. 

Tell me which specific areas globally require future innovation so that the UK can become global leaders in? 

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Pete Pozman 08:28 Sat
In reply to Lusk:

> LibDems are dead in the water.

> By vowing to revoke A50 on day one, they're instantly losing half the electorate.

They can be sure of the 6 million who signed the Revoke Article 50 petition and the two lots of one million who marched through London though. I don't think Brexiters understand how angry and alarmed Remainers are. Of the half of those who voted Leave (not half the electorate) a lot are now dead and a large number are saying things like "you can't trust any of them, I'll never vote again".

An awful lot of Labour voters are going over to the Liberal Democrats. 

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neilh 08:43 Sat
In reply to The New NickB:

It is worth stepping back and looking at the wider implications..That same money can also be used to pay for the day to day running costs of the gov. This includes social care costs , NHS, pensions and so on. I have seen numbers banded around of an extra £40 bn year needed on these .

so on your numbers before you start capital investment you need 6/ 7 p which is one hell of a big increase for the tax paying working population.

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The New NickB 09:34 Sat
In reply to neilh:

Which is why the second question is more interesting!

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neilh 10:24 Sat
In reply to The New NickB:

Well growth is not on a par with China or India. We are a mature economy. It’s limited no matter what we do it’s probably never going to be beyond 2/3 %. 

The hard truth is that most political parties hands are tied about what they can do economically.  

Even increasing corporation tax or higher tax on the top earners only raises a few billion

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johang 16:23 Tue
In reply to summo:

Sorry I'm a bit late to reply. Been busy.

> There is a difference between borrowing to invest and borrowing just to spend on political ideals. 

Yes, I agree. But you've skirted around the fact the the government does not have to borrow to fund government spending. The UK has a fiat currency, controlled by the government (through the "independent" central bank). This fact is important. I'll add the possibly controversial and counter intuitive statement that government spend comes first, tax comes second. Not the other way around.

> It's not scarce, the UK has tons of debt.

Yes, and surprisingly we're still doing ok on the surface. In fact hasn't government debt increased massively under the last couple of governments. Mostly for the pursuit of political ideals. My understanding of the situation is also that much of the debt is now private debt, which is good for company profits and bad for the individuals. But this misses the point (which I possibly didn't make earlier) that government debt /= private sector debt. My understanding is that government debt = private sector surplus.

> The UK barely had austerity. You want austerity look at Greece, or Spain's youth unemployment etc..

I disagree with this use of "we've not got it bad because these guys have got it worse" method of dismissing an issue. The PIGS countries have got it very bad, and in fact that would be one reason I would consider leaving the EU, but let's not get into that right now. If you want to tell me that a reduction in pretty much all public services and public safety nets, to the point that many seem to be close to failing is barely austerity, go ahead. But it runs counter to even the government's own narrative from 9 - 4 years ago.

> You know many of those shareholders are people's pensions are..  It's not just money that disappears into mystical funds. 

Point accepted. I'm just not sure why pension wealth has to be made specifically through profit maximisation to the detriment of the working population and the pensioners themselves. I guess the question I'm asking is why would renationalising natural monopoly services undermine pensions? If the value remains, why would the pensions collapse? Or are you implying that government run services have intrinsically reduced value?

Just to clarify, I am not advocating for nationalisation of everything. Just natural monopolies. After all, free market economics cannot work if there is no scope for competition.

> The reality is if you want better health, education and fight climate change everyone needs to be financially poorer. 

I don't actually believe this, because if you employ people to do the jobs to provide improved health and education, and to build infrastructure to combat climate change, the economy grows. But regardless, I would accept higher taxation in return for better health, education and to fight climate change (although, I would rather that the tax breaks for the rich were reversed first). In fact I don't really see how there is much of a choice around this, particularly with climate change.

> If all you had to do was to borrow and spend, Greece, Spain, Italy, Ireland, Cyprus etc would have had the best economies in the world. 

No, because they all use the Euro. Which is controlled by a central European bank. Which is not under the control of those countries' governments'. This is the main point I was trying to make, and is pretty much the central argument for abolishing the Euro (not the EU, I must hasten to add). In the current set up, G,S,I,I,C are all effectively large local authorities. Austerity -> problems in local authorities who's finance is controlled centrally. Not a million miles from what we're seeing regarding local constituencies in the UK at the moment (well a few moments ago, election takes up air time now.)

[Once again, bracing for dislikes]

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johang 16:26 Tue
In reply to Blunderbuss:

It would be nice if you explained why it's total nonsense.

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johang 16:32 Tue
In reply to cumbria mammoth:

Thank you cm . You managed much more eloquently to say what I was trying to say.

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jkarran 17:23 Tue
In reply to pec:

> Labour announce an extra £150 billion of borrowing on top the £250 billion already announced and the £195 billion for the renationalisation programme...

... blah blah, mostly made up and will fully misrepresented bollocks blah.

None of this, the false bits and guesswork or the true fragments, matters a jot. Labour have near as damnit zero chance of majority government in 2019, probably not for the foreseeable future under this electoral system and with the SNP dominating Scotland.

This is a straight up brexit election.

Tory majority: bad or likely worse brexit, which depends on the specific Tory MPs returned.

Anything else: More deadlock and brinkmanship then one of three options: an accident forces brexit, another referendum or a spring election.

Labour can do nothing radical until it resolves brexit then will be deeply constrained by minority government thereafter . Or, more likely (assuming the current leadership and survives and Momentum remains muscular) in the event of a 2021 remain vote Labour will trigger another election to seek a clearer mandate for their social economic policies, likely losing power re-starting the brexit merry-go-round.

jk

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jimtitt 17:44 Tue
In reply to johang:

> Sorry I'm a bit late to reply. Been busy.

> Yes, I agree. But you've skirted around the fact the the government does not have to borrow to fund government spending. The UK has a fiat currency, controlled by the government (through the "independent" central bank). This fact is important. I'll add the possibly controversial and counter intuitive statement that government spend comes first, tax comes second. Not the other way around.

> Yes, and surprisingly we're still doing ok on the surface. In fact hasn't government debt increased massively under the last couple of governments. Mostly for the pursuit of political ideals. My understanding of the situation is also that much of the debt is now private debt, which is good for company profits and bad for the individuals. But this misses the point (which I possibly didn't make earlier) that government debt /= private sector debt. My understanding is that government debt = private sector surplus.

> I disagree with this use of "we've not got it bad because these guys have got it worse" method of dismissing an issue. The PIGS countries have got it very bad, and in fact that would be one reason I would consider leaving the EU, but let's not get into that right now. If you want to tell me that a reduction in pretty much all public services and public safety nets, to the point that many seem to be close to failing is barely austerity, go ahead. But it runs counter to even the government's own narrative from 9 - 4 years ago.

> Point accepted. I'm just not sure why pension wealth has to be made specifically through profit maximisation to the detriment of the working population and the pensioners themselves. I guess the question I'm asking is why would renationalising natural monopoly services undermine pensions? If the value remains, why would the pensions collapse? Or are you implying that government run services have intrinsically reduced value?

> Just to clarify, I am not advocating for nationalisation of everything. Just natural monopolies. After all, free market economics cannot work if there is no scope for competition.

> I don't actually believe this, because if you employ people to do the jobs to provide improved health and education, and to build infrastructure to combat climate change, the economy grows. But regardless, I would accept higher taxation in return for better health, education and to fight climate change (although, I would rather that the tax breaks for the rich were reversed first). In fact I don't really see how there is much of a choice around this, particularly with climate change.

> No, because they all use the Euro. Which is controlled by a central European bank. Which is not under the control of those countries' governments'. This is the main point I was trying to make, and is pretty much the central argument for abolishing the Euro (not the EU, I must hasten to add). In the current set up, G,S,I,I,C are all effectively large local authorities. Austerity -> problems in local authorities who's finance is controlled centrally. Not a million miles from what we're seeing regarding local constituencies in the UK at the moment (well a few moments ago, election takes up air time now.)

> [Once again, bracing for dislikes]


Bonkers! The UK can't just " borrow", they borrow from lenders who set the interest rates and in the end the pound is saddled with long-term debt the UK can't service so you devalue. What exactly haven't you learnt from the Wilson government's fiasco? You know, 20% inflation, externally imposed austerity (at a level the current generation couldn't comprehend) and all that wonderful socialist experience.

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Eric9Points 18:00 Tue
In reply to jimtitt:

Paul Friedman explains how it works in his very accessible book, End This Depression Now.

Bond rates are actually lower than inflation just now by the way.

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The New NickB 18:06 Tue
In reply to jimtitt:

Between 2008 and 2016 British Government's gave the magic money tree a shake and found £435bn from nowhere, they used this to buy government bonds. Did this cause runaway inflation, no it had a small desired inflationary affect at a time when the main worry was deflation. Other bastions of socialism like the USA did the same.

Post edited at 18:07
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johang 19:25 Tue
In reply to jimtitt:

I literally haven't said anywhere that the UK can "just borrow". We have a government which controls the production of a fiat currency, which is a very different thing to "just borrowing". See post from The New NickB above regarding QE. I feel I'm back to the same argument -> government finances /= household finances.

But again, I take your point, and I will admit that I am too young to remember that far back. Could you please elaborate a little further?

To clarify: I'm not advocating infinite spending, I'm advocating spending on specific projects to put people into meaningful work. This is on the assumption that *money* is not a scarce commodity and is government controlled. Scarcity is in [people/resources/training], as outlined previously. Obviously, throwing too much money at a scarce commodity will result in inflation, but this doesn't mean that money is the constricting element.

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pasbury 19:45 Tue
In reply to johang:

> No, because they all use the Euro. Which is controlled by a central European bank. Which is not under the control of those countries' governments'. This is the main point I was trying to make, and is pretty much the central argument for abolishing the Euro (not the EU, I must hasten to add). In the current set up, G,S,I,I,C are all effectively large local authorities. Austerity -> problems in local authorities who's finance is controlled centrally. Not a million miles from what we're seeing regarding local constituencies in the UK at the moment (well a few moments ago, election takes up air time now.)

> [Once again, bracing for dislikes

Not from me, a very good post.

As far as I can tell we had a very privileged position within Europe anyway. Our own currency and various opt-outs negotiated by Cameron and his predecessors.

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MargieB 00:01 Wed
In reply to pasbury:

How many women candidates have had to step aside with this FPTP system and general weird confrontationalsim of the right wingers? Change the political culture and the system.How many greens would have won under a different system? How much faster could we have introduced environmental policies if we  had shifted from FPTP system earlier?

Post edited at 00:06
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jimtitt 07:03 Wed
In reply to johang:

> I literally haven't said anywhere that the UK can "just borrow". We have a government which controls the production of a fiat currency, which is a very different thing to "just borrowing". See post from The New NickB above regarding QE. I feel I'm back to the same argument -> government finances /= household finances.

> But again, I take your point, and I will admit that I am too young to remember that far back. Could you please elaborate a little further?

> To clarify: I'm not advocating infinite spending, I'm advocating spending on specific projects to put people into meaningful work. This is on the assumption that *money* is not a scarce commodity and is government controlled. Scarcity is in [people/resources/training], as outlined previously. Obviously, throwing too much money at a scarce commodity will result in inflation, but this doesn't mean that money is the constricting element.


Well the concept that the government controls the production of the pound is kinda stretching things, they can print what ever they like but the value is decided elsewhere. Or is the 20% drop in value since the Brexit vote a deliberate government policy?

In a nutshell after Wilsons devaluation of the pound in 1967 things continued to go downhill and the hard-left took over the Labour party, Wilson was dumped and Callaghan was forced to borrow first from the US and then the IMF to protect the pound from another devaluation.  The IMF conditions were cuts in the government budget and a cut-back in social programs.

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