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Greater Manc data and trends and tier 2

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Just went back to an old thread where I had posted some data, and compared with today:

1st Oct:  2279 new cases, 660 in hospital, 90 on ventilation

14th Oct:  4510 new cases, 1399 in hospital, 140 on ventilation

Looks like new cases and hospital admissions doubled in a fortnight, people on ventilation up by just over 50%.

We've been under extra measures for about 10 weeks.  Just about everything has got worse, in some areas considerably so.  Extra measures have had little impact - some levelling off in Bolton and Oldham but still have infection rate.  The new Tier 2 measures are hardly any different to our earlier extra measures.  I reckon Tier 2 measures will have zero/little impact.  Any impact on cases should appear in the data in a weeks time, any impact on deaths in 3 weeks.

I predict:  BoJo will have to stick it out with this tier system for 3 weeks.  Guestimate: at least 150 Covid deaths a day by then.  He change his mind then and go for a 3 week lockdown, unlocking ready for Xmas.


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