Just went back to an old thread where I had posted some data, and compared with today:
1st Oct: 2279 new cases, 660 in hospital, 90 on ventilation
14th Oct: 4510 new cases, 1399 in hospital, 140 on ventilation
Looks like new cases and hospital admissions doubled in a fortnight, people on ventilation up by just over 50%.
We've been under extra measures for about 10 weeks. Just about everything has got worse, in some areas considerably so. Extra measures have had little impact - some levelling off in Bolton and Oldham but still have infection rate. The new Tier 2 measures are hardly any different to our earlier extra measures. I reckon Tier 2 measures will have zero/little impact. Any impact on cases should appear in the data in a weeks time, any impact on deaths in 3 weeks.
I predict: BoJo will have to stick it out with this tier system for 3 weeks. Guestimate: at least 150 Covid deaths a day by then. He change his mind then and go for a 3 week lockdown, unlocking ready for Xmas.
