UKC

Being old enough to remember the desperate need to join the EEC in the first place, I cannot see that the facts of life have changed much. In fact, if anything, closer cooperation is required in the modern world. So I reckon we'll be clamouring to rejoin in 10 years or less, and we'll rejoin as a weaker poorer (and perhaps fragmented) country  on less favourable terms. I really cannot see any upside from Brexit (unless you happen to be a tax dodging multi millionaire). The cost of Coronavirus will perhaps speed up the necessity to rejoin.

Never, the French hate us, they're not going to make that mistake again

You've obviously suffered gallic trauma, I've never had an issue with our french neighbours. Being Scottish helps as there certainly appears to be a perception of English arrogance.

The EU (or EFTA) will not allow England straight back in, but they would probably let us back into the EEA without kicking up much of a fuss. Scotland and Northern Ireland have much simpler paths back. 

I think the joining process means it's unlikely we'll be full EU members again any time soon but I reckon we'll be back in the single market and customs union within 10 years.

It helps to think of joining the EU again with much better terms than before, such as joining Schengen and the euro. Similarly with budget contributions, it is a luxury to pay a lot in the common European system, just as it is a luxury to pay a lot of tax.

I've never encountered hostility when in France. Try to speak French, enjoy the food and drink and there's never an issue.

I think a series of bilateral agreements similar to the Swiss arrangement will develop over a number of years with a hefty dose of meutral suspicion on both sides depending on the UK (or English / Welsh) government of the day. 

I'm interested to see how the EU evolves. Brexit has been a unifying event for the EU27 but the underlying devisions remains (the frugal four, north vs south, visegrad countries etc). Now that the various UK opt out and rebate are gone any country standing out from the crowd (e.g. rule of law issues in Poland and Hungry) will face greater scrutiny.

I’m no expert on this stuff, but I’ve thought for a long time that: 1. The EU had major flaws,  2.  As a wealthy country we did contribute more in cash than we took out (which I agree with), 3. Us leaving might get the ball rolling for other countries.  I think there is a strong possibility that the EU will have a major overhaul and a new structure created which we would join. 

I doubt that we'll be allowed back in unless we accept the Euro as our currency; which we won't.

So no, for better or worse I think we're out and staying out.

T.

What sort of new structure do you envisage, given that EFTA and EEA already exist?

What a brilliant example of Scottish arrogance.

There is no better out of the EU. It's worse or even worse.

Andy F

It’s a statement of fact, not an opinion. My french teacher at school was a french national and told us that in the 60s . Saying “Je suis Ecossaise” usually results in a change of attitude when difficulties are encountered.  

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Auld_Alliance

... and then how long to leave again? I don't think we will go back in. We have our due, vasselage.

They can sell us their goods and we can't sell them our services. 

not sure if its a perception of English arrogance but as someone born in England, with Welsh ancestry but who spend most of my life in Scotland until moving to France I definitely get a warmer welcome in France when I'm thought to be Scottish or Welsh rather than English.

If we do it'll be 25+. Much more likely it's impossible, we'll just be a a big Pueto Rico to Washington in a decade or two.

Jk

Think you are probably correct. There also is unlikely to be a "we" as the UK will probably fragment as part of the coming political catharsis. 

May be in about 12-15 years' time. I can't see Labour campaigning on rejoining in 2024. Perhaps 2029 if they win in 2024 and the wind is blowing in the right direction. The process of rejoining would then take a few years.

I haven't got the slightest problem with the French, or anyone else.
Sounds to me like the French people you've met have got a chip on the shoulders about historical events.  They're the ones with the problem, F*ck 'em, a bit like English hating Scots.

Saying 'je suis Ecossais' might lead to a bit less confusions though  

Maybe, but I wouldn’t place too much value in it - you’re only eliciting a change of attitude from morons.

I remember a similar incident in Orkney. Some bloke in the pub asked where I lived. Cornwall I said, to which he replied “oh that’s alright then, Cornish are fine but we don’t like the English”. 

There were just so many levels of stupidity in his one sentence. 

Given the thousands of happy interactions I’d had as an Englishman with Scots, I couldn’t have given a toss what that one bloke thought. I imagine it’s the same in France. 

I can't see the UK, (or perhaps England and Wales as it will be by then), rejoining for at least 30 years. I can't see the EU wanting the hassle of having to deal with us until something changes with our attitude to the EU.

Maybe it's something that needs to happen. Pretty much every other EU member state has suffered humilitating defeat and had to be rebuilt in the recent past.

We still seem to think the world trembles before our might, and should be bowing down to us over a war that ended 75 years ago, and that people who never fought still seem to want to take credit for.

Hopefully we'll enter the reality of the 21st Century before it ends.

I don't know about 30 years, but it'll take a minimum of 20, and I'm not sure I'd bet on it ever happening. After all there's a reasonable chance Scotland will have left in 10 years, and that reduces the non-far right vote. It's also bound to be seen as a national humiliation - well-deserved, to be sure, and how anything could be more humiliating than electing the present shower I'm not sure, but still.

jcm

Its the kilt, ye ken , laddie! Or should that be lady?   

Can't imagine that we ever will.  What we probably will do, though, is progressively sign more and more treaties so we get closer to what we had without actually being a member.  For instance it wouldn't surprise me if we rejoined EHIC and ERASMUS over time.  Neither requires EU membership, and both are very beneficial.

Exception: if Scotland secedes I reckon it almost certainly will join the EU and probably the Euro (as it'll need a currency), but not Schengen, and there's a reasonable chance of Irish reunification over the next 20 years or so.

Scotland can continue to use the pound just as it did prior to the union. Scots Pound and English pound can co exist with an XR. Swedish,Norwegian and Danish Kroner used to do so quite happily. I’m not sure the eu will see much benefit in recreating treaties with the uk as it will almost be a monopoly supplier to the UK with all the power that will bring. The uk doesn’t have real leverage. Ie where else will it buy it’s cars? Japan /Korea? What happens with the balance of payments as invisible earnings migrate to New York, Frankfurt and Paris leaving us in a inflationary cycle and we all know how that ends. Will eu students or other foreign students see the benefit of studying in an insular cash strapped uk where all the best brains have drained elsewhere (as in the 50s and 60s). England runs the risk of having a very divided society which together with economic hardship does not generally provide a successful blueprint for a happy thriving future. Right that’s the downside. Somebody give the upside!

So much depends on our younger generations and their level of education. Or to put it another way: is our education system sufficient to generate a new enlightenment in our youth?

If/when our nation changes its attitude to Europe sufficiently, I think we will be welcomed straight back in with open arms.

Really? I've never experienced that.

I think the EU would welcome us back with open arms, assuming we accept the Euro.

Why would you want the pound? It seems strange to leave the UK yet peg yourself to the GBP and not fully enter the EU and the Euro. They aren't going to give a country an exemption from the Euro. The Euro isn't going away.

They are US citizens with free movement and the US$.. It just isn't a state.

Yep. I have a French Mum and English Dad. I've spent a lot of time in France though live in England. I've never experienced any hostility towards the English over any other part of the world. My accent gives me away as non-native French but I've always found anyone I meet to be kind and friendly when you simply acknowledge you're in a different country and at least try some French words and smile! I've been to places in France dominated by German or Dutch visitors and the few can most definitely give the wrong impression of the many, whatever the nationality.

I don't think we'll ever rejoin the EU as it is today. It's possible we might join something new in a few decades time though. I'm thinking the EU as we know it today will start to fall apart. It was on shaky ground before but now  we've left it's basically just the French-German bail out club for the Mediterranean states with eastern Europe exploited for it's cheap labor and used a buffer zone in case Russia ever kicks off again.

If it were to evolve into something new, smaller and simpler. Maybe just 6 or 7 rich nations coming together for mutual benefit. Then I reckon that is something the UK could be involved with. But who knows, the whole place could be a war zone again by then for all we know. 

We heard the EU was falling apart 4 years ago but it's stronger than ever.

You didn’t understand what I said. Scotland can have a separate currency called the Scottish pound, different from the English pound linked by a variable xr. 

This is just so funny, in an entirely objective historical way, isn't it? If this were to happen, it would literally be about the only real benefit that Brexit would give to the world (certainly that I can think of, in the absence of the Brexiters coming up with anything convincing) ... The idea that the most reactionary right-wing government I've seen in my 71-year lifetime should inadvertently achieve, through their extreme stupidity, without any violence and surely against their generally anti-Irish temperament, exactly what the IRA failed to do, is just so darkly funny. 

I can't resist this, late at night, regarding the whole sorry topic:

"... One of our base commanders, he went a little funny in the head, you know? And did a silly thing. … Well, listen, how do you think I feel about it? Can you imagine how I feel about it, Dimitri? … I’m sorry, too, Dimitri! I’m very sorry. Alright, you’re sorrier than I am! But I’m sorry as well. I am as sorry as you are, Dimitri! Don’t say you’re more sorry than I am, because I’m capable of being just as sorry as you are. So we’re both sorry, alright? … Alright."

That's not going to happen though. I think you'll (assuming Scottish) leave to join the EU, they won't let a country in with its own currency, especially a new currency. The UK was a rare exception which if they rejoin will be lost. why leave to reform your own currency?

The argument to leave, and to hold anew referendum, this time around is because you left the EU against the countries wishes. 

You're bang on right.

The Germans tried two wars to dominate Europe. They've learnt their lesson and are now playing the long game, and seem to be succeeding. They're not going to mess with the damned Bolshy Ruskies again either.

😄😄😄

You're distorting history quite badly here. In the run up to the Great War, each side was trying to 'dominate Europe'. We were at least as jingoistic. The 2nd WW was completely different, in that we were up against a madman who was wanting to dominate Europe, indeed the world. To say that was 'the Germans' just isn't correct. The German people were terrorised into supporting Adolf. You just couldn't afford not to, or you'd end up in Dachau, etc, and or dead. Yes, they've learned the lessons of war, but incredibly, now, in the 21st century we're suddenly ?pretending that we haven't. It's bizarre and shocking in the extreme. 

Very many EU countries do not use the Euro and there is no schedule for new members to adopt it.  They can take as long as they like - including never.   For practical purposes joining EU and joining Eurozone are separate decisions.

I think you'll find BB is being sarcastic. Could be wrong, I suppose.

jcm

But if you keep the UK pound, you wouldn't be able to borrow or control your interest rates, something which you claim is essential for independent Scotland and is currently holding you back? 

Get with the 21st century Misha. JimR can be whatever he wants to be! 

...and especially the Middle East. The Germans were allied with the Ottomans and had a great deal of influence in the region, including a Berlin to Baghdad railway line. This obviously didn't please the 2 biggest colonial powers in the world at the time - Britain and France - especially considering the newly discovered and relevant oil reserves, which were easily accessible via the recently constructed Suez canal.

The Russians were also part of Franco/British deal to control the Middle East (the Triple Entente), but then they went and had their Bolshevik revolution...

We don’t keep GBP we have our own currency, the SCP. The Scottish Pound which floats against the English Pound and other currencies 

It depends what ‘rejoin’ means. I’ve just had membership of an EU research strategy/funding committee renewed for the duration of ‘Horizon Europe’. Also had conversations to the effect that associate membership of the European Research Council and Horizon scheme means full access to the R&D collaborative funding schemes. Sure, we won’t be defining strategy and policy at the highest levels, but historically the French and Germans did that anyway. The U.K. is the most successful applicant for ERC funding because we are really good at research, and we’ve been key technical partners on EU research  programmes since the early Framework Programmes. Brexit has been a disastrous and costly bump in the road, but collaboration means too much to both sides for there not to be high levels of ‘alignment’.

Edit: I’m old enough to have worked on research projects when the funding was paid in ECUs (European Currency Units) prior to the introduction of the Euro. The collaboration the EU enabled has had amazing outcomes in research, and I’ve spent enough time with EU managers to recognise how much that is valued. I think we won’t rejoin the EU, but I think there’s still enough goodwill and pragmatic recognition of our value that the lines of Brexit will blur. Hopefully sooner rather than later. 

Things that float can often sink.

All currencies float against each other, attempts to stop the buoyancy usually end in disaster. A separate currency, is imho, a prerequisite for independence 

It could (in the manner that e.g. Kosovo uses the Euro as a non-member), but if it did it would not be allowed any control over financial policies relating to it e.g. interest rates, so it would probably be a bad choice.  I am not accepting of a full currency union with an independent Scotland, and I suspect this would be a majority view - if you want independence, you can have independence, but that includes full and total removal from influence over any political matters of rUK.  If you want to benefit from some of the aspects of the UK, I'd rather see us move to a federal style solution.

Ah, you mean like the Irish "punt" before the Euro, yes, you could do that.  England doesn't have control over what is called a pound, but it would be the SCP or whatever rather than the GBP - a separate currency that happens to have the same name.  A bit like there are several wholly separate currencies all called the "dollar".

I'd figure Euro membership to be more likely to bring stability for Scotland, though.

Have you lived anywhere else in the EU? Just interested in where your ideas come from.

What's the actual cost of implementing an entirely new currency? The actual physical cash all exchanged for your scp,  banking processing, decoupling of all accounts of those who currently living in Scotland but have an account with a UK address or bank(and vice versa) etc..? Millions or billions to set up? 

Rarther than blaming the French perhaps we should look at our own nationalistic fervour.

Which ones? I thought it was just:

Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Denmark, Hungary, Poland, Romania and Sweden.

I'm not sure they are great examples to follow, bar sweden and denmark but they had long established currencies. You want to form a new currency, with a new lending system? I think people would vote to leave if they just joined the euro.

Both sweden and denmark are subject to the maastricht treaty so are obliged to use it when they meet conditions. It seems a very convoluted process to set up a new currency when you could just join the euro  which your neighbors use. 

You could apply that to any other aspect of independence.  Scotland will need to set up versions of all the stuff that is presently done "federally".  It's progressively doing that over time anyway (e.g. having its own Highways Agency) but there's a lot to do.

Just for clarity: you think people 'would vote to leave' what?

In general, the issue of what currency an independent Scotland might use is an important one, which was completely mishandled in 2014. It hasn't gone away.

It's a legal obligation for countries joining the EU. With the exception of Sweden which is a different case, the countries that have floating exchange rates against the Euro and aren't attempting to meet the convergence criteria are the populist hard-right and mainly-anti EU governments that are already pushing against the democratic standards of the EU. It wouldn't be a good group to join for any new EU member!

The Danes are funny because they are pegged to the Euro anyway. I remember a couple of summers ago the lad at the reception of our Helsingør campsite telling me about it in real detail and laughing at how silly it was that they didn't just use Euros. I suspected he might be Economics student when he wasn't checking in campers!

I don't know whether it's because I don't have Southern vowels but generally when I've been away from the UK and got talking to people they always seem to ask whether I'm from Scotland preemptively.  Or Ireland, on one trip by several Irish people who thought I was one of them.   There really does seem to be a wish to have spoken to someone from Scotland in my experience (in the 80s and 90s as I didn't go abroad before then).

vote to leave the UK. The argument now is that Scotland was forced out of the EU with the rUK when it voted to stay in (if looked at the brexit vote). So the argument is they should have another referendum to leave the UK and rejoin the EU. Then the argument for currency is basically over. As Toby says it's a legal obligation to join the euro. Just leave and join the euro straight off. It's a unique case because its a separate state forming but it seems overly complicated to try to separate the currencies and then join the euro in time anyway.

It's not a discussion over what currency to use. Any new state is legally obligated to take the euro. And the argument is Scotland should vote to leave the UK again so it can rejoin the EU. If that's the case the currency argument is null and void. All you are deciding to do is a short term stepping stone to join the Euro. 

I don't think that's the case. I just think most people think English people only have southern accents.

I've got a wierd Manc/Sheffield/Welsh/Scottish hydbrid accent and nobody ever thinks I'm English. I get asked if I'm Australian or German more than I get asked if I'm English.

A long time ago my friend and I got asked by Americans in the queue for Camp 4 in Yosemite if we were Australian. When we said we were British/English/Scottish, they said we just seemed too friendly to be English (obviously they were more thinking of my friend than me!)

You could be right, but I think there is definitely a wild romantic streak being drawn to the wilderness on the edge of the world that is the Northwest Highlands in a very large number of Germans I've met (including my wife)

Ok, got it. So the suggestion is that a referendum poses the single combined question 'do you want to leave the UK and join the EU.'

wasn't the Danish crown pegged to the German Mark before the Euro came into use ? meaning they just continued being pegged to the German currency

edit to add that I misrembered or was misinformed, the krone was only pegged to the mark during the German occupation (1940 - 1945) (based on wikipedia)

If it's not why have a second referendum? Whether to leave the UK was put to bed in 2014? It's massively destabilizing to hold repeated referendum's every 5-10 years. It was pretty conclusive 55% voted to stay in. The argument is that Scotland wants to stay in the EU.

I'm not arguing - I was just wanting to clarify what you meant.

Well, the argument would be that Scotland wants to join the EU - it's now left, of course - with the specific implication which that choice would have for its future currency.

Why do you want this?

Imagine a European super union, just 6-7 super powerful nations getting richer and richer, quality of life and infrastructure remains poor in the rest of the now EU.

What happens then?

You get the US - Central America situation with massive "osmotic" pressure as immigrants flow through into the more affluent area. 

Of course, roads need fixing regardless of being in the UK, the eu or any other body. Starting a new currency, implementing it and so on is extra work and cost. 

It is anyones guess. Being German and having lived here in the UK for more than 25 years, I know that the Germans, the French, the Dutch, etc all love the Brits (even if the Brits don't believe it themselves). Nobody could understand the desire to break out of the EU, but they (the EU) were willing to let us back in again til the end. But now that the deal is done, I can't see anyone back-tracking for a few years. In a few years time perhaps, there is hoping...

Fair point, I might have put us a bit above our station. The exceptionalism is infectious

Jk

It is, but how is it "independence" if Scotland's financial policy was to depend substantially on the decisions of the Bank of England, which is how it would remain if Scotland used the GBP, because there would not be acceptance in England of handing over control of interest rates etc to a separate body, because that is the main argument for the UK not having joined the Euro (and an argument I support, because the ability to devalue by way of quantitative easing has saved our bacon far more than once).

'Nobody could understand the desire to break out of the EU,' To be honest, it's a bit weird. There is a small, tiny, minority who really, really hate the French and Germans (no-one else matters.) It visceral - hereditary - irrational and genuinely mindless. Farage, Rees Mogg, Duncan Smith, David Davis, Mark Francois - they are physically incapable of referring to the French or Germans without being contemptuous, sneering, rude and dismissive. I don't know whether you pick up the language they use - it's bizarrely xenophobic. If they were invited to dinner with, say, Voltaire, Victor Hugo, Beethoven, Mozart, Gaugin, Schiller, Hesse they would shudder in horror and say they had no interest in anything those Frogs or Krauts might have to say.

Somehow these b8stards got lucky, (their children aren't so lucky, obviously) and they managed to link their hatred with enough of a minority of disaffected to get a tiny majority over the line...  

That's exactly why the question of currency is important; and is pretty well where the independence debate foundered in 2014.

The English pound can sink too.

I don't imagine we'll ever rejoin the EU in its present form. 

We are however at our farthest point from it today and as time goes on we will grow together again in areas that are to our mutual interest.

The UK now must look to improve its relationships with the Far East. In a few years time their GDP will overtake that of the EU and we need a part of that. On the other hand the EU is not innovating in high tech while the US, China, Taiwan and Korea are. We will soon learn too that knowledge industries no longer have to be located in the West to serve the West but are more likely to diffuse into lower wage but well educated countries with good infrastructure. 

That kind of claim keeps being made here. But what are your exact scenarios where tax-dodging multi-millionaires get an upside from Brexit?

Bear in mind that tax havens already exist outside any EU jurisdiction, and that EU countries like Luxembourg and Ireland are no strangers to using corporate tax giveaways for what they think are their own economic benefits.

I can certainly pick up the language ..unfortunately ...grrrr...I am quite bi-lingual and work in communications and media and yes I have been exposed to xenophobic nuances all the the time for the last 25 years. But lately it has been a lot worse, but as I say, I have always felt very welcome in Scotland, but now the last few years have been trying.....

We’ll probably not join again, once Wales and Scotland split off, then Scotland splits into the the Highlands and Islands and lowlands, Wales will then subdivide into north and south, eventually we’ll just be a vast collection of walled villages mistrustful of our neighbours,guarding our turnips with our pitchforks and paying tithes to Westminster, I believe Boris is bringing in Droit Du Seigneur in a post brexit bill along with Priti Patel bringing back hanging and flogging.

I doubt she'll have any truck with such liberal nonsense. It'll back to the traditional values of branding and burning at the stake.

It's quite funny how far being British gets you elsewhere in Europe, whether its chatting up girls who are objectively totally above your level of attractiveness if it wasn't the extra credit you get for a being a Brit*, to - in my case - getting very senior Finnish government officials, politicians, military officers and so on give me often an hour or more of their time to be interviewed - in my language because my attempt at theirs was so pitiful!

I'm not sure if this is necessarily true though - it might be my view is warped somewhat by my old work and area of study, but there were lots fellow European who were expert watchers of UK politics and society and were quite aware of the differing camps in the UK on EU membership. But actually far more than that, most EU member states have their versions of UKIP who loath the EU and want out. And due to PR in most countries they are significant parties in parliaments - as is that bloc in the European Parliament. Most folk know about Fidesz in Hungary and Law and Justice in Poland forming governments, but maybe don't realise how big anti-EU parties are in other countries, be that all the other parties in France having to back a presidential candidate they mostly loathe to stop the FN candidate winning, or in Finland where the biggest or second biggest party in general elections is far right, and only cooperation by the other parties keeps them out of government.

*I don't mean to cast aspersions on your husband by any means as being below your level, but if you want to take it as personal compliment please do!

Can we join the PLO?

It'll be interesting how it works. I'm not sure the nations/blocks we trade with will want us to trade too openly with china.

Especially the US. The US/China trade conflicts don't look like ending any time soon do they?

The US is having this issue in other areas of the world, even Puerto Rico.

I'm not sure that, ethically, China is a country we should wish to deal with. In some ways its a bit like trading with Nazi Germany and buying product made in concentration camps.

I'm not saying you should or shouldn't. I'm saying the US may not want us to. There's already been issues. You can say 'well the US should keep out of our business' but the case has been made about how much we need US trade after Brexit. I think it's more about potential spying, data, and also stopping chinese dominance. I don't think ethics is a major issue sadly.

The US has had issues with chinese trade in Turkey, the UK and puerto rico already. 

If it's an 'ethical trade policy' you're interested in, then there are plenty of other countries apart from China to be worrying about.

(However, bonus points for mentioning Nazi Germany - these Internet discussions always get there in the end.)

It's impossible not to deal with China.

It is, and the US still does, but the recent Huawei ban in the UK is an example of US pressure having an influence. 

From now on the UK is pretty much a small pawn stuck between China, the EU and the US. 

Of course, it's all hugely complicated. I see the Huawei thing as the US trying to protect Apple and other western high tech companies and to slow down the technological progress the Chinese have been making in microelectronics in the last decade. 

US support for Taiwan is no doubt to some extent based on the Taiwanese being leaders in the microelectronics industry and of course having many high tech manufacturing companies operating in China including Foxconn/Hon Hai, the makers of most of Apple's Iphones amongst many other bits and pieces.

You are obviously not keeping up to date with the news. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-54277430

I find it rather disturbing that you obviously don't give a stuff about it.

 > I find it rather disturbing that you obviously don't give a stuff about it.

Don't be ridiculous.

I am merely pointing out that, in singling out China, you are apparently overlooking the ethical problems associated with many other countries with which we trade.

Right, so the fact we trade with other ethically challenged states excuses purchases of goods from concentration camps? Surely the answer is not to trade with any of them. That includes laundering money .. where London is the money laundering capital of the world 

Well assuming you're in that group because getting richer and richer is generally a good thing.

We kick back and enjoy life

So much better to just be poorer so fewer people would want to come here? Or just let them all have free roam anyway as the EU does now?

I reckon if the EU does start to fall apart it may split into chunks rather than individual counties, so maybe Weston Europe, southern Europe, Eastern Europe and Scandinavia for example. With each chunk having its own trading relationship on its own terms within its group and then a different trading relationship with the other groups and the rest on the world. It's conceivable we could join one of those chunks in a stripped down free trade partnership with free movement etc. But like I say who knows.

'Well assuming you're in that group because getting richer and richer is generally a good thing.' It used to be. Now that we in the developed world all consume far more than we need or that the planet can sustain, it really is time for a new paradigm that is sustainable, low impact, more emphasis on 'quality' and 'time' and less on consumption. Why we're still locked into a life cycle that sees the best years of our lives in a hamster wheel so that we can consume stuff we didn't need in the first place and is destroying the planet, is beyond me.

'I reckon if the EU does start to fall apart it may split into chunks rather than individual counties, so maybe Weston Europe, southern Europe, Eastern Europe and Scandinavia for example.'

This is technically called 'wittering'. You're making sh*t up.  

We're discussing what we think might or may happen in 20-30 years time, of course we're making stuff up. As I said, who knows what'll happen there are so many variables at play and such a long time span practically anything could be the case by then. 

I'm just speculating as to what some of those possible outcomes could be, as is everyone else. 

Well you're quite right, we could be hit by an asteroid, and in the short to medium term I think that is a lot more likely than the EU splitting up. Yes they have to deal with Hungary and Poland, but generally we've just given the EU project one massive boost - anyone in Greece or Italy thinking that maybe life on the outside wouldn't be THAT bad is about to see a live case study on just how sh*t it can be. And maybe the EU will reform a little, change tone a little, which as members we were encouraging anyway. 

That would be you making stuff up.

Well, not entirely, after all they will already be able to see the decline in the pound, the reduction in GDP, the job losses caused by falling inward investment, the increased barriers to travel, the reduction in opportunities for our children to travel and work abroad, the increased hassle of taking even the simplest holiday abroad,  the exclusion from any number of world beating programmes such as Erasmus, Galileo, Euratom...

We don't know what the result will be.  In my opinion, we will not fare worse than countries in the EU.

I did an exchange to Belgium while at school. That was before we joined the EEC.  Travel was easy too. 

Back in 1973 I flew back from Canada with just a driving licence. I think you'll find the world has changed.

What do you think has changed with respect to Europe ?

If you're in the EU travel across borders is easier than it was. If you're not it's harder.

I asked you what had changed since before we joined ?

What we now share with Germany's past is living in a state where the wrong people took charge by unscrupulous and malign means.  This should give us a new perspective on German history as it is now proven that the British are not immune to this happening.

I’m less convinced with this argument.

The biggest issue with the Southern European economies is that the euro is far to strong and they can’t devalue.

Our economy will bounce back strongly next year (depending on when Covid restrictions are lifted) as so much of it is service orientated with a domestic consumption slant.

I can see the economic shock of Covid being so big for the Southern European economies that they decide to leave the EU to get shot of the Euro.

We’ve now created a blueprint for leaving the EU, whilst the deal we have isn’t great, the same deal would have far less effect on the Southern European economies. If I was a betting man I’d say the odds of Greece or Italy leaving in the next 3 years is 50:50. 

I'm fully in favour of an ethical foreign policy. But I don't think discussions on a here-today-gone-tomorrow climbing forum will achieve it.

The principal levers you have to effect any change are the economic ones over which you have personal control. Apart from talking about it, what are you yourself doing to effect the changes you refer to above?

Especially since those same people have already threatened to deploy warships against French fishing boats. This is how it would start...

Italy is the weakness. Its debt before covid was growing with no obvious escape. Now despite being the 3rd largest economy in Europe, 8th in the world, it's highly dependent on bail out grants, funded by much smaller eu nations. It's going to crash, just a question of when. Greeces debt is small by comparison but given that they are locked into their ecb debt deal until 2050 or 60, anything could happen. 

Travel is, working isn't. Any of us who just drive to europe and started work the next day should be sad this is lost for our kids.

Although I think you working in the USA, which is not part of the EU ?

When I accepted a postdoc post in France I just threw some stuff in the back of the car & drove there, no paperwork required, no more difficult than moving from one town to another within the UK.

Later I started to apply for posts in the USA & Australia, missed out on one very good post in the US as they had a 2nd candidate, not quite as well qualified, but he already had a green card.

Moving to somewhere outside the EU was always possible, but until now moving to somewhere in the EU was much simpler

But still much easier than actually getting the job in question.

Grexit has been such a non-story so long that the wiki page even says "This article needs to be updated. Please update this article to reflect recent events or newly available information. (July 2017)".

I vaguely remember popular support for Greece, Netherlands, Italy etc exiting Euro and/or EU was falling. It's such a non-story for so long I don't know current popular support. It all seems to be past tense now.

https://www.pewresearch.org/global/2019/10/14/the-european-union/

Looks like 2016 marked a low in support for EU and in 2016-2019 support has increased everywhere including UK.

NO, we have equity. Well as much as we can. We all get a better quality of life. If not you end up with a large rich poor divide which is never stable.

Public opinion about the merits of the EU oscillates (mainly in line with economic strength of the country in question) and will continue to do so in the future. Whether the tipping point is eventually reached is what I’m speculating on, not current support levels.

From a purely economic perspective does having the Euro as your currency and being part of the EU make good economic sense?

For the less competitive Southern European countries having the Euro as your currency is pretty much the same as having your currency pegged to the Deutschmark, which makes it extremely difficult for your exports to be competitive and has a knock on effect on the rest of the economy.

Being part of the EU (free trade ect) is a good thing from an economic perspective (although for reasons outlined above you do get a brain drain due to freedom of movement).

Realistically in the long run Italy and Greece have only two options 1) a fundamental change in labour laws with a corresponding reduction in pensions and other social security to make their economies more competitive or 2) leave the EU and the Euro.

How bad their economies have to get before those two options are considered is something I’m not sure of, but if the economic damage from Covid is as bad as some people think then these questions will rapidly become quite pressing.

People have been saying the Euro is an ineveitably doomed economic impossibility for 20 years or more.

Where do you get these views from?

Countries and economies aren’t like people? They stop at 65 to retire, they go on indefinitely.

To me this one of the major flaws of democracy. Each government only think in terms of the next election, and not much thought is given to the long term. 

As Toby asked before: have you spent much of you life living outside the UK. From reading your posts you sound like people who I went to school with who had never left Cumbria. 

I was speaking in terms of the nation, not people. By kick back and enjoy life I mean reap the benefits of all our new found prosparity spend some money on better wages, better infrastructure, generally enjoy the advantages of wealth. 

I've never lived abroad for a sustained period no. But I've road tripped for a few months around most of western Europe, climbing at various places along the way, plus I've road tripped up through Norway for a while and had multiple smaller holidays to place throughout Europe. Plus we backpacked through Morroco for a few months. 

Why would it matter? Do I need to have lived somewhere to look up its GDP on a chart? 

To call that a 'flaw of democracy' is a bit of a weird statement. What alternative system of government are you thinking about where the outcomes have been demonstrably better?

In any event, were your contention true in general, we wouldn't institutions like the NHS, would we?

I'd rather live on the rich side of a rich-poor divide than either side of universal mediocrity. It's not our responsibility to help poorer countries, we're aren't talking third world here, we are talking European nations, they are quite capable of looking after themselves.

In short, us British can focus our efforts on making Britain grow, the French can focus on growing France, the Germans Germany and so on. If everyone pulls their collective weights we'll all be doing well.

Benign dictatorship with a solid succession plan...

'British can focus our efforts on making Britain grow, the French can focus on growing France, the Germans Germany and so on. If everyone pulls their collective weights we'll all be doing well.'

Shame about the planet. Ah well.

How can we do that efficiently? Ummm.... some sort of common joint effort perhaps?

BTW - I asked if you had lived elsewhere in Europe because I was interested in where your idea that the EU is about to fall apart came from.

I agree, but was thinking about it from the opposite perspective. Should London care about how Cumbria is doing, or expect it to pull its weight?

Looking at how unequal a country we live in, I’m not sure London is even aware the rest of the UK exists.

I don't know you. Why should I pull my collective weight with you rather than someone from the Republic of Ireland, Belgium or France?

You need to swot up on game theory and how working jointly  improves your wealth chances and how going on your own reduces it. 
 

Yep. Best way of explaining it. Keep the wealth in London and let Cumbria feed off the wealth it creates. 

You might want to remind the Scottish of that.

But anyways the structure of things is based around countries, not county's or packs of nations like the EU. We as the population of the UK can work together for our own common good then on the globe scale compete against other nations, competition being one of the main drivers of advancement. 

I'd be all for some sort of mutually advantageous trading agreement with nations of comparable wealth if it was on the table. I'm all for us getting richer and if as a side effect of that someone else gets richer too then that's a bonus, but I don't care of they don't either.

In fact if that was all the EU was and all it wanted to be I'd support it, but we all know it's not. 

Would you describe the US as a pack of states?

I'm left literally gasping with disbelief at that comment. Can't you see that the whole Brexit project is precisely about championing 'universal mediocrity'? It's all about a lowering of standards, removal of any regulations. The exact opposite of Boris's ludicrous-in-context 'levelling up'. This all started under Mrs T, the first great champion of mediocrity. I've been meaning to write a blog about this for not months, but years!, but have been too busy finishing my latest book. Fighting all the time against this enclosing, throttling mediocrity. 

Doesn't the U in UK and USA suggest something to you?

For the purpose of what exactly? Oh yes, becoming more competitive on a global level, making British businesses more successful as a result, attracting foreign investment etc etc. all of which ends up putting more money into the UK. 

Only we aren't going to lower regulation because the EU has tied us into a trade deal which limits what we can do in order to clip our wings and stop us hammering the EU and stealing all their investment. It's just plain old protectionism really.  

United into one nation yes, not separate countries working together. Yes Britain is a bit of an odd ball in this regard due to Scotland sort of being a country due to historical baggage but it's not sovereign and is generally just regarded a region of the UK. Hence isn't a member of the EU, doesn't make its own trade agreements and isn't independently represented at the Olympics. Same goes for Wales only more so.

One of the main reasons I voted to leave the EU (believe it or not I was on the fence for a while before the referendum) was because it's clear they ultimately want to become the United States of Europe and I don't want Britain becoming the Scotland of Europe, I'd much rather be the England of Britain and set our own destiny from a position of power. 

As such I really don't see how Scotland can be pro EU yet so strongly pro independence, even before the EU vote. They have MP's in Westminster, they are represented as a part of the whole, they get to influence government legislation. Yet they want to leave the UK and do things their own way. Understandable maybe other than the total impracticality of it in terms of standing on thier own two feet but it's exactly the same sort of reasons why we left the EU. 

The difference being we are still independently one of the world's largest economic powers, it's all very well supporting independence but there is a point below which you become too small and it's wise to stick together. Britain is big enough, Scotland and Wales aren't. 

I think you've got to face up to the possibility that Ireland, and Scotland if it leaves the UK and rejoins the EU, will both benefit from it enormously, as Ireland is already. The number of companies that have moved to Dublin in the last few months is just awesome (haven't got any figures at hand late at night).

I hate to remind you that Churchill's ideal was 'a United States of Europe'. It was his idea and he was the first to promote it strongly. The exact opposite of the Little England mentality that governs us now, full of delusions of grandeur about our role on the world stage. Yeah, we'll battle away trying to make foreign trade deals with lands far away - as we always have done, but now more earnestly because we have nothing else. I promise you that I'd love it to be really successful, but I have serious doubts that we'll ever regain the very strong position we had before.

Why? In the US it's all 2-4 year cycles. Its why I like the house of lords as an idea because they should be less politically motivated. 

I'm not sure if a better system though. But I do think it's a flaw of the system, just kind of unavoidable.

But when you get entrenched beliefs like the US they literally spend 4 years undoing the work of the previous administration. In past timed there was a belief that international policies should more united but that's no longer the case.

Yes that worked well for the fisheries didn't it.

Sadly too many see life as a zero sum game. It's a very Trumpian view. If someone else wins you must have lost. The idea we could all work together for a common good isn't well received.

I just wish we could all get along. 

waiting patiently, popcorn in hand, for Tom to provide his analysis of this statement.....

Hence isn't a member of the EU, doesn't make its own trade agreements and isn't independently represented at the Olympics. Same goes for Wales only more so.

But we'd not be the Scotland of Europe, we'd be the Britain of Europe, with the second largest economy (behind Germany) and the third largest influence (behind Germany and France).

Come on, in this one paragraph you say you dont see how scotland can be so strongly pro independence, then that its maybe understandable they want to leave the UK to do things their own way, and say its exactly the same as why we left the EU......

which is why I think the Scotnats think its the ideal opportunity; they would rather be in a union with the EU than the UK. The way things are going i cant say I blame them........

The U in UK comes from the Union with Northern Ireland, not Scotland. Check your passport. 

This from someone who thinks UK citizens should be collectively pulling their weight as a nation. I'm pretty sure the Scots, Welsh and Irish of the UK are not inspired!

The EU is a union of sovereign nations. It's an supranational entity that was created to promote shared interests and thus encourage peaceful relationships between peoples. After centuries of constant war it's been amazingly successful on that front. Almost all supranational entities up to the creation of the EU were empires or colonial projects, so having one that is broadly democratic is a pretty novel concept. I can understand why the Scots want to be part of that, and why the English - many of whom still feel nostalgia for the British empire - voted against it.

Tell that to Switzerland and the Scandinavian nations which successfully compete in a world with China and the USA. Their different relationships with the EU certainly help with this. I hope the different parts of the UK will also flourish in the forms they choose, but I fear that England is burning through its reserves of goodwill at an alarming rate!

Except that central assumption of yours is total utter bullshit. There is no appetite amongst EU countries to become the US of E.
Besides the EU is based on treaties between sovereign countries, any evolution in that direction would require signing up to new treaties which the UK could just refuse to do.

Scotland isn't a sovereign country in the UK, but it would be a sovereign country in the EU.

The ultimate proof that the UK was sovereign in the EU is the fact that we left it without having to ask for permission. The ultimate proof that Scotland isn't a sovereign country in the UK is the fact that it can't even put a referendum on the question in front of its people without asking for permission.

Same goes for England. Also a 'sort of country' that hasn't been sovereign since 1707.

The success of that union (the UK) must surely give you pause for thought when considering the possibilities of a european union? 

Would you not consider the Irish Republic to be successful within the EU? 

There are many good reasons to oppose independence. Too wee, too poor isn't one of them. 

It absolutely and certainly is.  Indeed, a central tenet of it being a good idea is "will this improve our quality of life overall?"

For Scotland it might.  For Wales it absolutely won't.

Thanks for this. It cheered me up no end this morning. Who knew there was a ‘correct’ size for a country?

Utter bollocks on a scale I cannot begin to comprehend. 

I have little doubt that independence will make us poorer in all senses, that however does not make it impractical, just highly undesirable. Rather like brexit. 

Fair point.  I suppose it depends how you define "practical".

Scotland and Wales are very different.  Scotland is a viable independent country, very similar to the Republic of Ireland.  Wales is very heavily dependent on the nearest cities in England, particularly North Wales; all you'd have left in the event of independence would be a very, very poor subsistence and tourism economy rather like Albania or similar.

Its saddening that you are in such a tiny minority.

I was told by an Italian, that whilst many in Italy might have sympathy for the Brexit arguments there's no way they would vote to leave as they trust EU politicians much more than their own!  

Netherlands, Luxembourg... mini tax havens create income without the need for material assets (obviously the Netherlands has some oil and gas too), or go the whole hog Monaco, granted Largs isn't likely to draw the same jet set super yacht crowd.  

Very wise words for an Italian given they’ve voted in droves for Berlusconi, Salvini and others.

Italian politics is very odd. Both the far left and the far right get a decent share and of the vote.

I’m sure there are posters on here who would say they’d prefer Barnier to Borris, but in reality he wouldn’t get a look in.

New Zealand?  The list goes on......

As for Largs. That’s a bit harsh, I mean it was popular with Scandinavians around 800 years ago.

Italian far right = Tories

Italian far left = Labour under Corbyn

Actually you’ll find that the Italian or French far right are more moderate than the British conservatives when you compare their main policies.

Not sure about the left though, European far left seem far more extreme to me than Corbynism.

Agree there; europe in general is just generally "more left" than the UK. Corbyn wouldnt even raise an eyebrow over there on the far left scale. Most of his policies are pretty mainstream anyway, most of the anti-JC rhetoric was just the media making it up as they went along having identified him as their bogeyman. He just wasn't good enough as a political leader in our style of confrontational party politics.

Italy's mainstream socialists have become very moderate in recent times. The whole spectrum has shifted right.

Wales is poor only in comparison to its near neighbours in north west Europe and is absolutely nothing like a former authoritarian communist country like Albania. Wales has a higher GDP per capita than Spain and Portugal. No doubt, independence would be a big economic shock but I see no reason why it could not in the long term succeed instead of the gradual decline we have seen for so long now as an ignored part of the UK. There are very many smaller or similar size countries who do very well. As you mentioned ROI, I would argue that Wales has more advantages and our proximity to such a large market as the large English cities is not a disadvantage.

The trouble is that its economy is very, very closely bound to Liverpool, Manchester, Chester and Birmingham.  For all the Welsh Government wants north Wales to align with Cardiff, it doesn't and never really has.  There's a reason there's no direct domestic north-south Wales railway line, for example - there just doesn't exist the demand.

As part of the EU, perhaps, but didn't Wales vote predominantly leave?

What makes you think you would keep that business if you seceded?  There is a fairly strong view in England, to which I subscribe myself, which is that Scotland, Wales or whatever is welcome to independence if that is the wish of the majority of their population, but that would be true independence, that is you would cease to receive any money or other support from England - at absolute most there would be the Common Travel Area and a customs union, as doing otherwise would be rather impractical.  Thus, much of the England-supported market other than tourism would quickly evaporate.

I think for Wales this is a complete moot point, though, as the population realises that it is not and is never likely to be the same as Scotland in terms of viability on its own.  For instance, north east Wales is basically a Liverpool/Manchester commuter suburb, and the loss of that would be a big hit.

For clarity.

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2019/sep/22/english-people-wales-brexit...

That is the very definition of an anglocentric view of the matter. The idea of 'North Wales' being different from 'South Wales' is an idea promoted to encourage divided thinking. Like anywhere else proximity brings connections that are important (an undeniable fact still being ignored by the whole pro Brexit movement), but to try to paint a situation where somewhere like Porthmadog shares more in common with Manchester than with Aberteifi is laughable. The main transport links along the north of coast of Wales were never built for the benefit of people who live here (although many benefits exist, as well as drawbacks), but as links to Ireland. You might be surprised how much connections to Cardiff spread throughout the entire country these days, with many younger people from diverse areas of Wales having made it their home in large part because of the work available there linked to national establishments.

City AM suggest otherwise:

The UK’s economy is set to remain the fifth largest in the world, according to a respected annual report, and to surge ahead of cross-channel rivals despite Brexit.

The Centre for Economics and Business Research’s annual tally of the world’s leading economies sees the UK retake fifth place from India.

And by 2035, the researchers assess, Britain’s economy will be some 23 per cent larger than France.

Douglas McWilliams, Deputy Chair of the CEBR, pointed to the UK’s strengths in digital and creative services as evidence of the country’s future-proofed economic strength.

“We have a huge competitive advantage in this tech-based sector which the pandemic has kicked forward. Most of this is pretty Brexit-proof provided the UK continues to attract talented people,” he said.

The Brexit deal signed last week by Prime Minister Boris Johnson will allow the UK more flexibility on immigration rules, though free movement will end.

Advocates point to the advantages of a system which will allow the best and brightest to come here, though critics question the impact of preventing free market on the wider economy and on our global standing.

The report also sees the US kicked off top spot by China towards the end of this decade.

All doom and gloom? Perhaps not.

I'm no Brexit fan, but I do feel the one sided 'debate' on UKC could do with the occasional counter argument!

The nature of UKC is to take a "doom and gloom" line on most things - nowhere has this been more apparent (and largely correct) than the COVID threads.

I wonder if this is caused by how climbers think in terms of risk assessment when e.g. deciding what gear is needing to be placed?

All very interesting. Given the last 10 years of government imposed austerity do you anticipate most of us will see the results of the increase in the UKs economy?

Or as is appears to be the case at the moment we will have a buoyant economy benefiting a limited few?

Dunno. I doubt it.

My argument was that the 'other' side to the great Brexit debate rarely surfaces on this forum.

Wealth is never distributed fairly. The little-people always receive a bum-deal whilst those who breathe the rarified air of the upper strata get the biggest slice of the cake...this is the deal regardless of what type of society we live in and regardless of our membership of the EU. Despite their supposedly egalitarian leanings.

Look no further than the current scandal with Spain's Royal Family, or the charges against Sarkozy (and pretty much every other ex-president of France, for that matter) and compare their slice of the cake with that of the club-Med nations; particularly their youth.

Insert Orwell quote as appropriate!

It's an interesting point - perhaps people who spend their free-time weighing-up the dangers of their chosen sport have subconsciously weighed-up the risks associated with Brexit and decided that it wasn't worth it.

That said, with the kind of all-pervading pessimism I detect on this (and every other) Brexit thread, you'd never actually leave your sleeping bag!

There are some things that are just unambiguously bad news, catastrophic errors. The Corn Laws, the Irish Potato famine, the Boer War, the conduct of WW I; return to the Gold Standard; Suez.

Personally I think this event will go down in history as a similar or worse catastrophe. The negative effects can already be seen all around us; you wait till Covid eases and the population start thinking about holidays again and finally start to realise what they so lightly threw away. Meanwhile, no-one in Merthyr Tydfil will ever get a job because of Brexit, unless maybe C & R relocate an office there.  God knows they're going to need a lot of them. 

Other than a small number of people who due to existing conditions won't be insurable, there will be no problem with going on holiday.  Perhaps a tiny amount of extra admin once the ESTA-a-like comes in and a slightly longer passport queue.

This is sort of the problem - the issues it will cause won't be directly visible to your average Sun reader.

Scotland will have a relatively straightforward return to the EU after we become an independent state. The deal agreed by the Westminster government is grim in almost every sense, but it should make the trade in goods with what's left of the UK less problematic. 

Seeing as we only ever leave these shores for the Emerald Isle, it appears to be next to no change, thankfully.  https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/common-travel-area-guidance

I think you're being optimistic. All borders have the potential to be PITA under certain circumstances - a diplomatic spat, an outbreak of infectious disease,  a public sector strike, or just sheer bloody mindedness. And when that representative jobsworth of a foreign govt says 'Non' then that's it, you - and your coachload, or plane - are just f*cked. Most people have been insulated from all that for the last 40 years. They'll soon find out. And just wait until insurance premiums skyrocket, people with pre-existing conditions are excluded, the local and traffic police become rather more aggressive to us foreigners, EU countries start enthusiastically using the sanction of expelling us for 'bad behaviour' ...  

"Rest of world" travel insurance is not that expensive (the US specifically gets expensive, but that's for different reasons), and people travel to non-EU countries all the time.  So to be honest, frankly, I think that is scaremongering nonsense, and that sort of thing does not help the cause one bit.

I have been to plenty of non-EU countries and in none of them was entry onerous.

The one group of people to whom it will be a major problem is people with severe pre-existing conditions who can't obtain insurance.  Plus those (as you say) who go abroad and commit crime, so get kicked out and banned - best think before committing a crime, then, as I think that's a perfectly reasonable sanction.  If you go to another country, find out what the law is and comply with it.

It's only unambiguous on this forum; there are many reputable sources of news and information that have identified a less pessimistic approach. I certainly wouldn't compare it to the War to End All Wars.

But, like you say, time will tell....I've been listening to dire predictions for the future since 2016, very few have materialised (although, only now have we actually crossed the Rubicon).

I get the distinct impression that many a Brexiteer would be quite happy for the economy to collapse, just so that they could say 'I told you so', whilst queuing-up at the soup kitchen.

As for the unemployed of Merthyr Tydfil. I'm not familiar with their particular plight, but I suspect it's more to do with the collapse of the coal industry than our leaving the EU.

Did they get such a great deal prior to Brexit? 

The NS link on Wales didn't happen because of geography. It's 300 miles from Bangor to Cardiff or 100 miles to greater Manchester. There's no way that will change. Working in bangor we'd go to meetings in Cardiff and it was a PITA.

A friend worked for the Welsh government on the flow of diseases along drugs corridors and they wanted him to focus N - S Wales. Which there's no drugs trade. It comes down the A55 and you can follow the flow of strains of diseases through these corridors. It's the same in the South with West of England. It's just an example of trade flow between england and wales eclipses that of within Wales.

Wales is very integrated into England. 

Culturally that might not be the case but rightly or wrongly it's money that matters.

'Did they get such a great deal prior to Brexit? ' As a matter of fact they were, there was investment pouring into the area from European funds for everything from new roads to software company startups. The Brexit vote was a vote against Cameron and the Tories, it perhaps wasn't explained clearly enough that all those projects with an EU logo would come to an abrupt halt. That's fair enough though, Telegraph readers have only recently realised that new residency rules, pet passports and all the rest actually apply to them too.

It's not 300 miles from Bangor to Cardiff. Not looked it up, but I reckon under 200.

edit: Looked it up: 180 miles

If you drive it certainly feels like 300 miles.

The major weakness was certainly the pre-referrendum debate; which was damaged as much by Brexiteer lies as the Remainer tendency to brand anyone expressing pro-Brexit sentiment as a thick racist...rather than debate and explain their folly. There's blame on both sides of this particular street.

You seem to be speaking in the language of catastrophe, here; WW1, Suez, the potato famine, 'no-one in Merthyr Tydfil will ever get a job'...

Really? 

No-one?

Ever?

They've been dealt a rough deal (some would say that dealt their own deal), but is there any reason why no-one else will invest there?

I say again, I'm not supporting Brexit. But I don't support the pessimists either.

We Remainers lost the argument (despite being right, how stupid are we, exactly?), then we lost the referendum, then we lost the '2nd referendum' by a Tory landslide, and now the deal is done.

It's time that we got back on the collective horse and accepted our new reality.

As for pet-passports and holiday border difficulties. Big deal? I think not.

OK it's still a 3.5 hour plus drive (4:12 according to Google, 8:30 round trip). It's more than double the time to Manchester (1:55), Liverpool is 90 minutes. Maybe it's the dragons Back is 300 miles. Sheffield and Leeds were easier to get to that Cardiff.

Even the train went through England. There's just not good links N to S Wales. It's too integrated into England to try to break it up.

I'd do meetings in Cardiff, there and back in a day, it was bloody awful. Manchester/Chester was easily possible. Even Birmingham was often easier (2:45). 

You make a persuasive argument for investing in transport links within Wales. I wonder if a Westminser government would ever listen to you.

Transport is a fully devolved matter, so if you want to invest in it use your devolved tax raising powers and build it, just like you'd have to if you were independent.

Westminster has nothing to do with it whatsoever.

After a series of misdemeanours,  the chess club at school and I decided to part company. 

I thought that I was a pretty good chess player, they thought I was a pain. The truth is probably halfway between those views.

It was pretty clear there was no way back for me and annoyingly the club seemed to survive without me. No point in asking to rejoin,  its a bit like asking for credit, a refusal often offends.

The difference there is that you were still you, whereas what constitutes the UK in EU terms isn't the UK, but rather the UK Government.  A substantial change in Government approach (e.g. to a Starmer led Labour) would effectively be a different country.

The problem with Welsh independence is that it's Wales's long side that forms the border with England, whereas with Scotland it's the short side

Yeah there is nothing stopping the Welsh Government sticking a highway straight down the spine of Wales, other than mountains and national parks that is...  And I'm sure all those coastal communities would welcome a highway down the coast. As much as the A55 brought in lots of business to north wales it also hurt local towns which lost the passing trade and also were cut off from the beach, like Penmaenmawr. 

There's a reason few (no?) major transport links exist between directly north and south wales and it has little to do with Westminister.

The reality is any major road infrastructure would have to swing around into East Wales (you can't go through Snowdonia) and then go around the East of the Brecon Beacons, otherwise known as England..

I agree, but the trouble is that the EU won't initially believe that....or rather I certainly wouldn't if I was them.

BTW, as we are now out and so none of us can be Remainers or Brexiteers anymore, what are the two new sides called (must be two sides at least)?

Hopeful EuROphiles

And the Curiously UNaTtractives?

The Netherlands isn’t some mini tax haven, the merchant fleet is sizeable,Phillips and shell are Dutch, Tom Tom, Unilever, pharmaceuticals, ING, their salvage and marine engineering is the biggest in the world plus I think Rotterdam might see a little trade passing through. Their agriculture is also the most productive in the EU, The European medical agency has also just moved there. 

Holland is a case in point if you have a broad base to your finance then being relatively small isn’t a problem.

Summo also highlights our ignorance and dismissive nature to our neighbours 

.  

So what's your viable plan to turn Wales from predominantly rural and mountainous to flat and akin to the South East of England or the North West conurbation?

Yes it could be done economically, but it'd take 50+ years and huge investment.

I agree with you, my point was Holland has the broad industrial, cultural and financial spread to be a strong and prosperous country, hence the list of industries and institutions that Wales has no equivalence, Wales doesn’t have that, it has no independent financial institutions of any significance, little industry, poor infrastructure no significant urban areas in the North and those in the South are pretty economically troubled etc.

it does have Ivor trailers though 😉

Can you explain why companies or people with no obvious connection chose to hq there?.... The Rolling Stones, U2, Boeing, US Steel, Walt Disney, IKEA and Johnny Walker,..

Hardly classic Dutch industry. The Netherlands allows companies big enough to negotiate a special tax rate if they hq there, thereby depriving these enterprises homelands of tax. 

I’m not saying that they don’t have some dodgy tax practices, they are not however a one trick pony like your traditional tax havens. And obviously as a member of the EU it’s getting it’s wings clipped 

“In June 2014 the EU initiated a new investigation relating to the Dutch corporate taxes as part of a State aid (European Union)case by the Directorate General for Competition. The case was specific to Starbucks. The investigation ended in October 2015, with the EC ordering Starbucks to pay up to €30 million in overdue taxes.”

The Dutch economy is highly diversified with a  highly qualified, highly productive workforce.

To suggest this is a one trick pony tax dodging tax haven will be total anathema to anybody who has any sort of real world experience dealing with Dutch companies or living and working in the Netherlands.

Rom, of course they aren't in the same bracket as Luxembourg but they do hq a lot of non Dutch companies; Netflix, basf, tesla, KPMG, Phillips, Adidas etc.. 

And 30m to starbucks is nothing compared to taxes saved over its lifetime. It's a token amount.

Yes because of course there aren't any other multinationals with their European HQ in the UK, or in France, or in Germany...

Ho, and BTW, in the list you gave: Phillips is a Dutch founded company, BASF doesn't' have its HQ the Netherlands, nor is Adidas. KPMG is Anglo-Dutch...
 

On OP topic: 

I can see a couple of possible paths, the U.K. fragmentation and rejoining scenario or the renegotiation of the arrangement to be  nearer an EU membership. Unless the U.K. really suffers and we get a strongly visionary pro-European Govt then I’m not convinced that we will rejoin any time soon. I can see the U.K. becoming far more aligned with the US which may pull the EU closer out of necessity/political pragmatism. 
 

Agree rejoining is unlikely however it is quite likely in my view that the relationship is rebuilt along similar terms over 40 years.
At the end of the day British people will want to be able to travel / work easily in Europe, do business easily, etc etc..

Obviously it will take a looong time and in the meantime, well, sorry but nothing to gain, just more isolated and more friction for individuals and businesses.

Alignement to the US ? I don’t see it. I am sure we will see a lot of rethoric, but not a lot of action.

Why ? Because at the end if the day even the ardent Brexiteers are far more European in their culture and political attitude than they care to admit.

If an independent Scotland were to apply for EU membership, it’s car crash of an economy, the second highest deficit in the EU area, would preclude membership. Having said that the EU often ignores it’s own fiscal rules when it suits. Most of Southern Europe and even France don’t qualify for membership with deficits over 2.5% of GDP.

I was just talking about this today! Hopefully with all the old framework still in storage, it won’t be long before we come knocking and it should be a much easier transition back in to the family. You know like a child that ran away from home? The parents were never that worried, they weren’t going far....

22billion euros shifted in 2016 using the 'dutch sandwich' tax avoidance tool

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dutch_Sandwich

Whether an iScotland would end up with a deficit or a surplus as an independent nation would very much depends on the tax and spending decisions it would make.

Is that with or without the Barton formula?

Scotland will be swapping a partnership with England (it's largest trading partner), which also gives unfettered access to the EU market, AND for which it receives a hefty income in the form of Barton formula payments...for the same level of access to the EU market, for which it must pay!

You'll be swapping a Barton pay-cheque for an EU bill, and sacrificing your supposedly cherished independence in the process (the EU are no lovers of the sovereign state).

 It's certainly a good deal for England and for Brussels, but what do the Scots get out of it? 

Fair point re the European Culture/Nature of the euro nihilists. 
 

First of all its Barnett, not Barton.

And that is with.

Barnet’s formula is just a method of allocation, Scotland gets funding from the London, but it also pays taxes.

Members of the EU are sovereign. Members of the Uk are not. 
The most striking example of that is that the UK didn’t need the permission of the EU to leave, whilst Scotland would need the permission of the UK to leave.

What do we get out of it ? First of all we have a democracy instead of being stuck to this gangrenous Westminster system, and we stop getting exactly the opposite of what we vote for all the time.

But yes, overall Scottish independence would be very expensive and difficult.

This isn’t my preferred option, my preferred option would be a federal UK with maximum devolution, and in particular full devolution of immigration policy. Failing that, I would take independence at virtually any cost.

I think that's the most honest and reasonable response I've ever received from a ScotNat; although almost every open source report I can find points to a weak and indebted economy.

Most seem to have their heads in the clouds about some kind of richer, brighter utopia which awaits them in the post-independence world; which is probably why the BNP have resorted to a policy of lies and hubris.

It's difficult to argue against those who want independance at ANY cost; but the cost will be high and it'll be a difficult sell to all but the most ardent supporters of Scottish Independance - which brings into question whether or it is actually democratically achievable. Most Turkeys don't vote for Christmas-, afterall.

Anyway, you'll only end-up replacing one lot of corrupt, inept politicians who don't give you what you want, with a different bunch of equally inept halfwits of the home-grown variety, who also don't give you what you want.

I'd add that the Barnett formula (correction noted) pays out far more than it receives from Scotland; and the cost of EU-membership is likely to be high given the club-med drain on resources...for which you won't gain much more access to the EU market that you've already got and you may well lose some of your access to far-and-away your biggest customer, England.

As if that wasn't a high enough price, Shetland have already expressed their desire to seek independence from an Independant Scotland (along with much of the dwindling oil reserves) and you risk fracturing society along similar lines to the Brexiteers / Remainers.

If this is the price you're prepared to pay, good luck. 

None of the people I know who support independence (which is pretty much everyone I know in Scotland) think like that whatsoever.

No, I don’t believe so. I think the Scottish parliamentary and election system works well and broadly speaking finds good compromises.

Westminster is basically an electoral dictatorship, where the biggest minority of the electorates takes all. The lack of democracy was somewhat alleviated in recent years by EU  membership, but that is gone.

It is “a bit more” not “far more” and in any case because of the Barnett squeeze this already questionable advantage is going to disappear.

It’s a wonder how any country on earth outside of the United Kingdom can survive, really.

I don’t have a problem with Shetland becoming independent. I believe that systems of governance should be based on consent not on constraint.

Like I said. Not my preferred option. In an ideal world we get a federal UK and devomax.

I am not overly precious about EU membership. The most important thing for the Scottish economy vis a vis the EU is simply freedom of movement, which could be achieved easily without EU membership and a devolved immigration policy.

Btw this is all moot because on my view, Scottish independence will simply not happen. Even if you had 90% support for it Westminster will simply not grant a referendum and that will be that.

I’m sure there will be better economists than me on here but I’m not sure that the euro in its present form would be a beneficial part of rejoining. It’s always been set for the benefit of Germany and France. 
also, an independent Scotland trying to rejoin might have few political hurdles to jump (they like us  over there) but there’s a massive big economic hurdle in that our public sector is a much bigger proportion of gdp than the treaty allows. That’s part of why the left don’t like the EU as it makes for inferior public services and looks like a neoliberal plot. Anyhow, we’d have years of major austerity and loss of public services to endure just to be eligible under present rules. And no way of influencing EU economic policy meantime....

.... Anyhow, we’d have years of major austerity and loss of public services to endure just to be eligible under present rules. And no way of influencing EU economic policy meantime....

With Johnson's lot in control for the next few years, I think we're all going to get "years of major austerity and loss of public services", and certainly "no way of influencing" just about any economic policy.

not going to dispute that, but for Scotland to achieve convergence it would be a lot worse. Unless Westminster has been cooking the books all these years, but how would us groundlings know....