UKC

/ Is there still time for Scotland to avoid brexit?

This topic has been archived, and won't accept reply postings.
Ciro - on 28 Nov 2017

http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/scotland-independence-171127140227233.html

"Since the 2014 referendum, the case against independence has rested almost exclusively on the claim that Britain insulates Scotland from economic pain. In the absence of English public subsidies, unionists argue, Scotland would be a financial basket case, incapable of covering the basic costs of self-government. Even Jeremy Corbyn - who otherwise vigorously insists that spending cuts are an ideological choice rather than a fiscal necessity - has suggested that independence would mean "turbo-charged austerity" for the Scots.

On paper, he might have a point. The prolonged slump in global oil prices has decimated Scotland's once lucrative North Sea oil industry, leaving a 13.3 billion British pound-shortfall ($17.6bn) in Scotland's annual finances. But until Scots actually vote for and enact independence, that shortfall remains hypothetical. What is definitely not hypothetical, on the other hand, is the increasingly dysfunctional state of the British economy."

Whatever happens we're going to face a period of extreme economic uncertainty, does that make it the ideal time to leave Britain and apply for membership of the EU? At least that way, once the dust settles, we'd be members of the world's largest trading bloc
4
girlymonkey - on 28 Nov 2017
In reply to Ciro:

I'd vote for it now.

In economic terms we are screwed whatever we do. Even if we had staying in EU, my generation are screwed financially anyway. However, I'd rather take our parliament who at least have compasion and aims to go in directions with which I largely agree than the morally bankrupt, self serving ejits down south. I'm not saying the parliament is prefect, nor are the EU for that matter, but their aims are largely more in line with mine.
10
zebidee - on 28 Nov 2017
In reply to girlymonkey:
That certainly ties in with my feeling too ... Scotland has always had a different political attitude to the one in Westminster with a far more socially democratic feel to it.

Although I voted for independence the last time round I was a swing voter who ended up going that way. Now ... I'm firmly in the "we should have nothing to do with the rest of the UK any more" camp.
Post edited at 16:29
5
girlymonkey - on 28 Nov 2017
In reply to zebidee:

I was a no voter last time as I generally believe in an ever more globalised world that we should be in the widest possible union available to us. Breaking down into smaller units seems like a crazy idea in our days of internationalism. I was willing to stick with the UK, with whom I didn't always agree, in order to maintain wider political and trade links. Turns out we got screwed out of that one and I also want nothing more to do with the UK!
5
tom_in_edinburgh - on 28 Nov 2017
In reply to Ciro:

I think Sturgeon did the right thing by keeping the option for a second referendum open.

All she can do now is sit tight and see how the Brexit debacle plays out and if things get bad enough that the opinion polls are saying there's a majority in favour of independence go for it.

4
Eric9Points - on 28 Nov 2017
In reply to Ciro:

There's nothing hypothetical about the multi billion shortfall in the Scottish economy. The guy on Al Jazeera is a bit of a balloon I've read his stuff before.


SNP faithful were told earlier this month that a second referendum is likely in 2020. I expect it's probably bollocks said to shut them up but don't expect anything to happen soon.

In answer to the other part of your question Scotland would not get automatic entry to the EU if it became independent. The events in Spain confirm what's been said all along. Further to even get considered for membership, current account borrowing has to be less than 5% of GDP. The cuts necessary to achieve that deficit , e.g. Shutting down education completely would make Margaret Thatcher blanche.
7
wercat on 28 Nov 2017
In reply to Ciro:

And a nice hard border across the span of Hadrian's Wall - yessir please sir!
5
Pero - on 28 Nov 2017
In reply to Eric9Points:
Yes, I guess Scotland is a poor, backward country, dependent on England and most definitely not able to stand on its own two feet.

And, yes, in order to gain entry into the EU, Scotland would have to close all its schools.

Makes you wonder how a country like Romania can survive and be in the EU. Must be much wealthier than poor old Scotland I guess!
Post edited at 17:51
3
Ciro - on 28 Nov 2017
In reply to Eric9Points:

> There's nothing hypothetical about the multi billion shortfall in the Scottish economy. The guy on Al Jazeera is a bit of a balloon I've read his stuff before.

Of course it's hypothetical. As it stands we're restricted to an economic policy largely decided at westminster, which for example hamstrings our attempts to develop our massive renewable energy potential, in favour of jobs for the fracking boys. An autonomous Scottish economy would diverge fairly quickly from the one we have now. For better or for worse is of course open to debate, personally I'd trust us to do a better job than is currently being done for us.

> The SNP faithful were told earlier this month that a second referendum is likely in 2020. I expect it's probably bollocks said to shut them up but don't expect anything to happen soon.

That'll be entirely dependent on Scottish public opinion.

> In answer to the other part of your question Scotland would not get automatic entry to the EU if it became independent. The events in Spain confirm what's been said all along. Further to even get considered for membership, current account borrowing has to be less than 5% of GDP. The cuts necessary to achieve that deficit , e.g. Shutting down education completely would make Margaret Thatcher blanche.

What will happen if we stay in the UK under a hard brexit Tory government would make Margaret Thatcher blanche. Pain is coming, shouldn't we look to at least be in a better position when we come out of it?

1
Ciro - on 28 Nov 2017
In reply to wercat:

> And a nice hard border across the span of Hadrian's Wall - yessir please sir!

Well hopefully only temporarily, and given time England will come back too
1
graeme jackson - on 28 Nov 2017
In reply to wercat:

> And a nice hard border across the span of Hadrian's Wall - yessir please sir!

Which is nowhere near Scotland? Being of Northumbrian origin, I can't see many of my friends and family wanting to join me in the republic of Scotland.
1
graeme jackson - on 28 Nov 2017
In reply to Ciro:

> That'll be entirely dependent on Scottish public opinion.

Isn't it entirely dependent upon a decision to be made at Westminster (like the last one)?
birdie num num - on 28 Nov 2017
In reply to Ciro:

Stick with the devil ye know.
Its unlikely that the EU would accept a nation of wee pale gingery types, with short arms and deep pockets.
5
Ciro - on 29 Nov 2017
In reply to graeme jackson:

> Isn't it entirely dependent upon a decision to be made at Westminster (like the last one)?

Indeed, but as we've seen demonstrated recently in Catalonia there's nothing that builds the desire for independence quite like telling a people they can't have a vote on it. If you ingore the calls for too long it gets to the point where you can't allow it because you know you can't win, and when it keeps building you're flirting with having to deploy paramilitary force against the public.

If public opinion swings further towards independence again, the Scottish government will call for it and the Westminster government will allow it while they still think they have a chance to influence the vote.
wercat on 29 Nov 2017
In reply to graeme jackson:
that was the militarised zone, ideal place!
all of the legionary reenactors could take a real place in history in their armour
Post edited at 08:28
girlymonkey - on 29 Nov 2017
In reply to Eric9Points:


> In answer to the other part of your question Scotland would not get automatic entry to the EU if it became independent. The events in Spain confirm what's been said all along. Further to even get considered for membership, current account borrowing has to be less than 5% of GDP. The cuts necessary to achieve that deficit , e.g. Shutting down education completely would make Margaret Thatcher blanche.

No, maybe not guaranteed entry, but we would certainly not be doing everything in our power to piss them off and would be striving to be on the best possible terms we could be and could work towards membership. Obviously, if we could get membership immediately that would be great, but if we have been forced out I would at least prefer that we were working towards a good relationship!!
2

This topic has been archived, and won't accept reply postings.