UKC

Apparently the Russians are withdrawing from Kherson.

Is this a good omen? Or, as some suggestions I have seen, is it "clearing the ground" for some spectacular act by Putin(strategic nuke)?(god forbid)

Putin is dangerous but he's probably less dangerous in defeat than in victory.

He recently backed down when nobody cared about Russian withdrawal from the grain export deal. Russian apocalyptic threats are empty threats.

A good omen but who knows really.

Raise a glass to the defeat of fascism.

I'm cautiously optimistic.

Sky News seem to do very good coverage and analysis of the battleground strategy and troop positioning, I've learnt a lot.

Although I was furious they cut away from a detailed analysis of Kherson yesterday in order to show some vital breaking news: Mr &Mrs Trump going to a voting booth.  

Not sure, a wounded animal is more dangerous 

Odd because that's what the Russian propaganda says the Ruskies are doing in their "special military operation" which of course is not a war

I have wondered whether he'd go on to nuke it, as he is not only withdrawing his troops but also has told civilians to leave.  The latter is suspicious, and sort of implies something along the lines of "well, if I can't have it, Ukraine can't either".

More likely that the whole place will be booby trapped.

Isnt the primary risk blowing the dam?

Various places have said this.  I'm not convinced for two reasons:

• Look at a terrain height map of Ukraine - the north side of the river (Kherson etc, being abandoned by the Russians) is much higher, where-as the south side (to which Russia is retreating) is more flood plain.  Blowing th
• This would stop the water supply to Crimea as the canal portal need the dam to raise the water up to its level.

Mind you, I'm thinking like a rational person and not an insane nation that doesn't care about the lives of its soldiers - conscript of not.  Blowing the dam would fit with their attacks on electrical infrastructure, and perhaps they're quietly resigned to loosing Crimea nullifying my point over the canal.  There've been reports today of defensive trenches being dug across the northern half of Crimea.

I'd put the dam being blown as more likely than a tactical nuclear bomb being used; there's been a quiet backpedal from Russia since the US made it clear to the world they'd precisely and clearly explained to Putin's administration what will happen if Russia goes nuclear.  As with the recent carry on over the grain embargo, they can actually back down.

No - the defences the Russians have set up on the left bank are exposed to flooding if they blew the dam. More exposed than the right bank anyway.

Having said that I don’t know what to make of it. It doesn’t fit the standard Russian narrative to date, but Prigozhin’s barbed telegram rantings implies that there’s no grand strategy behind the move, so who knows. 

Maybe a withdrawal is just a withdrawal?

I've not been following it recently, what happened? 

I have to say that was my line of thought

No nuclear response if the Russians used nuclear weapons, but massive conventional response against Russian forces in the Ukraine.

I wouldn't put anything past them! 

I expect light raiding forces will cross the Dnipro to tie down Russian forces or even probe for weaknesses.

Stalemate along the Dnipro might suit Ukraine as they have longer range and more precise artillery for attacking Russian logistics in the land corridor to Crimea. 

Having achieved their goal of removing what was earlier this year a threat to Odessa, Ukraine can establish strong defences with lighter forces along the barrier of Dnipro up to the Zaporizhzhia oblast. This stalemate frees up some of the Ukrainian army to move to the Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts.

Russian forces may move in the same direction.

David Patreus included the sinking of the Black Sea fleet in his assessment of the likely response. He is no longer in post but I would imagine is in the know.

Re use of a tactical nuke in Kherson. Wouldn’t there be a high risk of killing his own troops with the fallout?

I think it's more than likely that Putin doesn't care about that.

There's very little fallout from tactical nukes, they're 'tuned' to have a very small blast radius (which is what creates fallout) but a wider radius radiation 'burst', mainly neutron, which kills people well outside the blast radius. Neutron radiation also induces longer term radioactivity in steel (which then emits high levels of gamma radiation). They were designed primarily for use against armoured formations, the neutron burst kills the tank crews, the gamma radiation emitted by the vehicles stops them being used by replacement crews.

Plus, as if Putin is bothered…

I wonder does it freeze? If it does but not thick enough to drive heavy vehicles over then that really restricts the Russian options for resupply or retreat (foot, light vehicles, air) through the coldest part of winter. If that's the situation then Russia would have to provision Kherson now for a long winter siege. That risks those troops being easily pinned down and useless elsewhere on the front. If the city falls their stockpiles, assuming sufficient material is available, fall into Ukrainian hands.

jk

Generally now, the 'The' isn't included in front of Ukraine
https://theconversation.com/its-ukraine-not-the-ukraine-heres-why-178748

Announcement of withdrawal is possibly simply  because loss of Kherson is inevitable and a tactical retreat sounds  much  better in Russia than a sudden admission of defeat following weeks of rumour including including on web.

I'm told (by someone whose wife comes from there) that it doesn't - far too wide and fast-flowing.

Things may be moving quickly in Kherson.

https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1590755455340810240

The 30 HIMARS donated by the US have basically ravaged the Russian supply chain, Kherson being divided by a large river is essentially two cities. It simply would not take the Ukrainian army long to isolate the two sides from each other and encircle the western side. AFAIK the UA artillery would level the city rather than go door to door in that circumstance if it was packed full of Russians.

There is also reports of partisan activity against the occupation, so Russian would be left dealing with enemies outside and within, plus no resupply and poorly trained mobiks to hold the line.

It looks the Antonovsky Bridge has been destroyed, reportedly by the Russians. The railway bridge further to the east also seems to have suffered the same fate.

https://mobile.twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1590988573896867840

This seems to suggest the Russians have already left Kherson and the city will probably be back under Ukrainian control fairly quickly.

Just seen reports that the Ukrainean flag is displayed in the city centre although it might have been put there by partisans. Either way I admire their spirit.

The UA still has the problem of special forces masquerading as civilians and setting up traps and kill zones for them. There is always the follow up of some kind of very large munition currently planted or dropped once they retake the city. The Russian mil bloggers are pumping out material asking what did they get in return for withdrawing from Kherson? I suspect the actions needed to save face by the Russian high command will appear in the coming weeks.

https://nitter.tannhauser.network/WarMonitor3/status/1591022118237790208#m

I'm not sure the Russians have the motivation for that because it would be a dangerous/suicide mission of partisan warfare without the support of the local population.

I expect Russian forces will lay mines and booby traps plus use artillery as they have done elsewhere. 

You're right. There's a lot of face saving to be done and that usually involves missile/UAV attacks on Ukrainian civilians or infrastructure.

Works both ways though, the UA can also now use their firepower to target the eastern bank.

I suppose we need to ask-- exactly what are the Russian fighting for...its all a bit weak.. and whether it is in reality worth putting your life on the line for.. The UA have that in spades...

Its all very sad for both sides.

Russia will target distant cities to make life miserable for civilians (mainly?) and undermine the Ukrainian wartime economy.

If they have enough missiles. I suspect now we are going to see negotiations and a stale mate.

Apparently Ukrainian troops are now in the centre of Kherson with Ukrainian flags flying.

I wonder what's going through Putin's mind. Hopefully it will soon be a bullet.

I think it might be a while until they run out of missiles and drones. To the best of my knowledge Iran has a huge stockpile which they seem happy to keep selling. 

As well of the physical barrier of the Dnipro river enforcing a stalemate I expect the result of the US mid term elections will have a major impact. The republicans will be keen to reduce the cost of supporting Ukraine’s military, but more importantly will want an early end to the war to ease energy supply and reduce inflation, which is the main concern of their voters. A deal which allows Putin an off ramp by claiming “liberation of Russian speaking Ukrainians” would be a part of this. A Ukrainian reconstruction fund could be funded by a cut of Russian oil and gas exports. The Ukrainians won’t like it but they may not have much choice in the matter, especially with the Dnipro winter stalemate

Just my opinion/prediction

They've been doing that since the start of the invasion. As a tactic, it is notably unsuccessful.

Guardian reported there is a certain level of unhappiness in Iran about it including a senior cleric and major newspaper editor leading a call against arming of Russia. With a suggestion its basically the army doing so of their own accord and not necessarily in line with the government and foreign ministries objectives.

What you say is certainly a possibility but now that the midterms are over I think there will probably be enough sensible republicans in congress to keep up the current pressure on Putin. I’m not sure cutting back on arms supplies and making things easier for the Russians will look good with republican voters and may just prolong the war even further. The Ukrainians won’t stop fighting and will resist any pressure for an off ramp that cedes any territory to the Russians. Even going back to the situation before the February invasion may not be acceptable.

An interesting article about it here:
https://ecfr.eu/article/midterm-blues-what-a-republican-win-could-mean-for-...

It forces a stalemate along the lower section of the Dnipro but the focus of attacks will shift further east. The fall of Kherson shows the Ukrainian military can make progress and thus western backing isn't just a black hole of money.

A lot of backroom stock from the US has been sent which would need replacing anyways. Add in the more modern equipment and suddenly all those US military suppliers are going to be very busy, this means more jobs in states represented by both political parties. The arms manufacturers will surely have some top lobbyists in Washington. Sadly war is very good for (some) business.

A deal which allows Putin an off ramp by claiming “liberation of Russian speaking Ukrainians” would be a part of this.

Im not convinced Putin will have any off ramp besides blaming his generals etc. When all this is over Russia is going to come to terms with a resurgent Ukraine with a large NATO standard military and western outlook. Corruption within Ukraine remains a huge issue that will need to be dealt with but nothing compared to the cesspit Russia has dug itself.

Same here.

My view is 

1) This is an impressive victory for the Ukrainian Armed Forces. Firstly, Kherson was essentially forced to be abandoned by Russia; it was increasingly untenable for them to lose troops defending in and a longer attempt to hold it would have seen even more losses. Reportedly Ukrainian artillery/airstrikes/etc are taking a toll on retreating Russian forces. Secondly this has avoided a brutal and extremely costly extended siege that could have cost the Ukrainian Army hugely in terms of troops and material. 

2) While the Dneiper is a natural border that will free up Russian troops as it is more easily defended, the same is true of Ukrainian units. Ukrainian forces have repeatedly shown themselves to be vastly more capable in offensive operations than Russian forces, and indeed over the last few months have successfully taken lots of ground in successful strategic offences. Comparably the Russians have not launched any offences in months and seem incapable of doing so.

3) While winter will slow operations, it also presents a challenge defensively too. Russian units are reportedly poorly prepared for winter conditions, the Ukrainians are not. While offences across the Dneiper are unlikely, launching artillery strikes from the East Bank is highly likely and strongly favours the Ukranians with their superior rocket artillery (HIMARs etc). Also there is plenty of open ground to the East and North of Ukraine for them to conduct offences through, see September/October.

Overall I think the Ukrainians will be very pleased and there will be no reversal of fortune. With continued support they can beat the Russian military in the field and restore 2014 borders imo.

Whether its a good thing to have a stalemate is debateable. Putins problem is I suspect he will just not concede and will plot and plan to retake the " lost" territory, and it is why I think he has to be literally defeated.Its not good.

I'm stocking up on Chicken Kyiv

HIMARS must have a really PR representation! Ukraine is also using M270 MLRS vehicles donated by the UK (6 vehicles) and Norway (?). M270 is a tracked vehicle with 2 pods of (normally and in Ukrainian usage) 6 rockets and HIMARS is a truck with a single (identical) pod but we only seem to hear HIMARS in common usage.

I don't agree that the Ukrainians would level the city - they wouldn't need to. Much simpler to just cut the supply links and wait for the freezing and starving Russians to surrender. Grim for the remaining civilians but maybe not as bad as having their city levelled or house to house fighting in their house.

While the M270 is good and useful, it's maximum range with the most advanced guided rockets less than the HIMARS. The HIMARS goes out considerably further and the 30 donated platforms have reportedly been a complete game changer in the field. Being able to strike supply depots, reserves, command posts and so on while being out of range of Russian counter-battery fire is something the Ukrainians have said is invaluable. 

Looks like the Russians have also blown up the northern end of the road and rail bridges that run on piers above the Nova Kakhovka dam so I guess their withdrawal from the right bank of the Dnipro is complete. The main structure of the dam still appears to be intact although there is some damage.

https://mobile.twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1591166872585895936

They use exactly the same ammo (just carry 2 vs 1 pods).

At the moment I’m sure there are some generals in the Russian army staff that will recall the following from WWII.

"Next time you invade Italy, do not start at the bottom" joked Wehrmacht General Senger to his British counterpart 10 years after WWII. 

And then come up with their own version.

“Next time you invade Ukraine, do not start in the East”.

There are some reports of Russian forces gathering in south west Belarus but that might just be a feint to draw some Ukrainian forces away from the south eastern front.

I don’t think there will be a winter stalemate as the Ukrainians will want to capitalise on their current success and retake more lost territory from weakened and demoralised Russian forces.

I think a major factor also is the fact that Russian artillery can fire for vastly far less time now as it is forced to do the modern thing, shoot then scoot instead of sitting there hitting targets at will.

Apart from long range missiles all the russian arty has to operate tactically now

Not only is it less effective at destroying targets  but other Russian arms can no longer depend on its easy availability to act in support

Ukraine controls both sides of the river further up stream.  The destruction of most/all crossings from the sea up through Kherson probably frees a lot of forces from defensive duty there to join an offensive further north where Ukraine can cross the river unchallenged.  Split the left bank russian forces between the Ukrainian controlled controlled city of Zaporizhzhia and somewhere south on the coast like Berdyansk, then work west from there.  So long as the Kerch Straight bridge remains barely usable, perhaps the geography can be really turned to Ukraine’s advantage.  The beautiful salt lakes of Crimea form another natural barrier with even the eastern most crossing being in range of the new explosive drones Ukraine is working on.

It’s because “It’s HIMARS time” with a picture of MC Hammer in those gold parachute pants is more memorable 

It’s very strange watching how internet meme subculture is shaping perception and messaging, right up to the level of senior government people twisting the enemy’s tail through social media.  “It’s M270 time” doesn’t have the same ring to it.  Nor does “It’s M270 O’clock”.  The HIMARS launch vehicle is also lends itself to decoration - with the painted teeth and two eye-like forwards hatches it’s like something out of the mirror universe version of Pixar’s “Cars” or the stinky and dirty show.

It can’t be long before we start getting weapons systems with direct-to-social-media export built in to their control consoles.

Edit: props to the Reverend (*) Hammer.  Not many rappers go on to talk about non coding RNA on Twitter.  

(*) - I’m not sure if his ordained title is Reverend or something else.

Anyone who wants some detailed insight into the Ukraine war should watch videos from Anders Nielsen. He's an active Danish Navy strategist but produces some really detailed analysis on developments and predictions of future operations. Refreshingly "dull" in his delivery, he seems to know what he's talking about. 

https://youtube.com/c/AndersPuckNielsen

Excellent.  Thanks for that.  A long way to go…another couple of years.  Grim. 

Putin saw sense for once. Or he got told the truth about the actual situation. Either way, if this keep happening, it will make it harder for the Ukranians to win. However, I doubt it will keep happening. The Russian system isn’t designed for truth or common sense, which is just as well…

No one is going to be crossing the Dnipro, it’s not WWII. Ukraine has plenty of other areas on the frontline where successful attacks could be staged.

Rumour has it the Ukrainians have taken the Kinburn Spit. No point taking that unless they’re going to keep pushing south.

Plenty has been reported about the culture of lies and corruption in the Russian army and the impact on readiness or military strength.

Peru has done an interesting video on how the culture of lies might explain some of the non-sensical Russian frontline tactics and at the highest level, the decision to invade.

youtube.com/watch?v=Fz59GWeTIik& 

No need to watch, you can listen like a podcast and it still makes sense.

Been rumours (and purported videos) of them heading out there a few times over recent months.  More about a strategic observation point and tying up Russian resources rather than preparing for a push from that point?

I thought it was interesting that Ukraine have been using the US donated anti-radiation missiles to successfully go after Russian air defences in Tokmak and Berdyansk.  Perhaps they'll be the line they go for next.  

An offensive through Zaporizhzhia oblast to the sea would be the logical move for Ukraine and would be pretty much war winning in my mind if they would pull it off.

Kherson would rapidly fall; all troops could be pivoted to either the Donbas or Crimea ect. 

Activities on the battlefield aside, the Milblogger information space seems to have shifted rapidly since the fall of Kherson. I suspect we’re in for an interesting run up to Xmas.

This is what happens when criminals run a country. Imagine Tony Soprano running Russia. How good would he be at it?

Crazily the lies are told on the front line too.

Line 1 Rather than say an attack was a failure, say it was semi-successful.

Line 2 Reinforce "success" so launch another attack.

Goto line 1.

Saw rumours but it would be odd if true. You’d think any forces there would be easily cut off from resupply. Perhaps the thinking is with the Russian Navy confined to port after the drone boat attacks and artillery kept at bay by HIMARS, it’s a risk worth taking but transferring a meaningful level of troops and supplies there seems pretty challenging. 

Add in readiness to believe what you want to be true. 

UK MoD confirms Ukraine has crossed the Dnipro.

See Kinburn Spit.

https://mobile.twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1592136449964523520

It would be an interesting and clever tactic on the Ukrainians part, if it was true, as it would keep a lot of Russian forces in the area and prevent them from being deployed further east. Or it could just be misinformation to try and achieve the same aim.

https://mobile.twitter.com/Euan_MacDonald/status/1592249051101143043

Disagree that your link confirms anything.  I think you’re over interpreting a map already unreliable at such fine scales amidst the confusion.  The western end of the peninsula including the spit has not been coloured as under Russian control in the last 3 weeks of updates I just scrolled through.  So, nothing has changed on the maps for the peninsula.  Loss of Russian control simply means the Russians left, not that the Ukrainians came.  I’d leave if I was on a peninsula in range of drones and conventional artillery… 

Plenty of reports of Ukrainian forces making covert trips to the spit before Kherson was retaken.  More reports of crossings in recent days, no confirmation though…

Good reading here - https://mobile.twitter.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/1592279745546297345

It’s just dodgy colouring in or perhaps and assessment that the Russians never bothered to occupy that bit. It’s been the same for a while if you across back through previous maps. If it was taken back, you’d expect to see a contested area round there. Also no proof from looking around the OSINT stuff in the twittersphere (photos etc). I think any kind of landing on the left bank would be suicidal but what do I know…

A spectacularly poor place to be in a war for sure, there's nowhere to go or hide and within range of almost anything used by modern military on the mainland. The Turks had a fort there to control the straights but that's long gone. I spent two nights in the early 90's there in the anchorage sheltering from bad weather and visited the military base which was a selection of tin huts guarded by a dozen bored soldiers. The area in the bay was a shallow-water submarine exercise area and the base was an observation and test centre for sonar/radar stuff but after independence not a lot went on.

The main occupation of the troops was fighting the endless drifting sand and going fishing, biggest halibut I've ever seen or eaten!

Oh well, fastest way to truth on the internet is to post an untruth

Anazing to think that the Ukrainian troops are being welcomed into Kherson in the same manner that Putin was "predicting" the Russian troops would be welcomed by the Ukrainians, with open arms snd bouquets of flowers etc

Of interest to the thread

https://guernseypress.com/news/2022/11/15/opinion-the-beginning-of-the-end-...

All "propaganda", of course... Filmed on a Hollywood backlot by fascist NATO imperialists. Blah blah blah.