UKC

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/may/06/picnics-and-sunbathing-on-...

If people can sunbathe, can people can top rope solo?

Only if they wear the standard bubble wrap body armour.

So we started the lockdown later than anyone else, did a much worse job of preventing people dying, have no real wide-spread testing in place, and we're coming out at the same time as Germany who played this magnificently. We're f*cked!

If we don't get a massive resurgence I'll be very surprised.

Yes, as long as you can walk to the crag from your house 

disclaimer: not an official of the BMC, not an MP and not one of those special people who knows exactly what everyone else should be allowed to do.

Yup.

I'm hoping a lot of what I'm reading is just media hype. As usual though we are getting mixed messages from the government. Boris is announcing the plan on Sunday with the intent of some things changing on Monday, the media are telling us lockdown is over, Rishi is saying he is looking at easing back from Furlough in July. 

The newspaper headlines have probably brought about an easing of lockdown whether the government wants it or not. The front pages today mostly say 'no more stay at home' etc. Given that things were getting busier anyway, that's probably that for keeping people at home even if the government isn't actually planning on easing things much. 

This is presumably the ‘lockdown fatigue’ that was cited as a reason for not going in to lockdown earlier than we did. 

Presumably. I wonder how things will play out.

On the one hand, I get that the show must go on as a recession will kill a lot of people. NICE guidelines are for a treatment to be approved if it costs less that £30 k per quality adjusted life year saved by the treatment so it would be interesting to know the numbers for the various options (we never will).

On the other hand, our number of new cases is stubbornly high even with lockdown, we are doing very little testing, contact tracing is a distant dream, we have an elderly and very unhealthy population, our death numbers are really high (excess deaths, or even just the bare-bones figure of people dying after a positive test). So I've no idea how we will avoid a second wave if the situation is so bad after 7 weeks of lockdown.

We may be lucky in that we are close to herd immunity already but with so little testing we have no idea and we're still not 100 % sure if infection gives immunity.

I think you're right.  The way to have avoided it would have been an earlier lockdown which would have been a shorter lockdown because you start it with fewer cases.  So fewer deaths, less PPE shortage, more time to ramp up testing etc.

Before anyone gets too excited it appears that the lifting of measures will be tiny and probably only in line with what’s already happening against guidelines. 
 

the guardian say that they will allow leaving the house more than once a day with no time limit and maybe sunbathing and picnics so basically changes to guidelines not laws still bot allowed to see friends or family though so not much point.

Agreed, quite terrifying. The fact they've hinted to some of it, massively open to misinterpretation by the public and the media will just make things worse. 

I am wondering how much of it is number 10 doing its normal test an idea by getting a friendly reporter to announce it and then look at the reaction before deciding whether or not to proceed and how much is some media outlets trying to pressure the government into loosening stuff off.

I suspect it's the latter. Quite a few papers have been anti-lockdown for a while now. Maybe they are looking to make the decision for us: people will see the headlines and take matters into their own hands. Once the dam bursts that's probably it. Meanwhile, the number of new cases is still far too high and actually went up yesterday! 

Yep. So much for "following the science". This administration is failing in their primary duty: to protect the UK. I just do not understand what they are playing at.

All the proposed lockdown relieve measures in the Guardian article are about activities which have been allowed in Germany for the whole C19 period. And still the spread was contained.

UK is now testing more than Germany.

So relax and enjoy time spent outside again!

Yep, this weekend is just going to be a free for all as the red top and rag readers are anticipating some sort of magic to happen on Monday so might as well enjoy the BH weekend socialising with friends and family, personally i won't be going anywhere i don't NEED to for a while yet.

As a resident of Cumbria it was alarming to see the initial spike of infections, it's starting to settle but an influx this weekend, which there will undoubtedly be, won't be a good thing and could see us spike again.

Imagine if Churchill has used the same leadership 'strategy' in 1940 - 'I am going to meet with my colleagues tomorrow, to discuss something we're maybe going to announce on Sunday, but we're probably going to have to evacuate Dunkirk on Monday anyway, because that's what the media are telling us we should do... And anyway, I want to be liked.' 

He delayed the lockdown to maintain public popularity (despite the rest of the world screaming "WTF are you doing") and is now causing further confusion about easing restrictions to restore public popularity (and feed his ego). He really doesn't seem too bothered about the consequences. 

Yep. He just wants to be the one to announce the lifting of lockdown, in a grandstanding speech from behind a podium outside Number 10. Actually making the right decisions, taking responsibility and leading the nation? Nah.

His illness hasn't changed him one bit, he's still an utter knobhead.

Our shocking death rate (including frontline workers - which didn't happen in Germany) means we are not the same as Germany. I agree though with the premise of what you are saying about what may (or may not - we are all speculating) happen in terms of exercise restrictions being lifted.

I simply want it to be conveyed to the nation in a clear and professional manner. Something we still seem utterly incapable of doing. 

I'm sure there's a good reason he's doing it on a Sunday in a press conference, rather than on Monday before parliament

Churchill  told Chamberlain "You were given the choice between war and dishonour.  You chose dishonour and you shall have war."

I was thinking about what he'd have said to Boris.  Maybe "You were given the choice between disaster and inaction.  You chose inaction and you shall have disaster."

His ego (his justification for everything he does).

The case in the UK was much more severe than the one in Germany. But the countermeasures, namely the strictness of the lockdown, were also more severe. It is important that the release of the lockdown happens in small steps. But this also means that it is useful to do some of these steps once there is some space in the hospital capacity.

Regarding frontline workers, I have no idea how many cases there are in the UK, but in Germany it is now:

hospitals, GPs, etc: cases 10269, cases requiring hospitalization: 450, deaths: 17

Care homes, etc: cases 7503, cases requiring hospitalization: 308, deaths: 30

So not zero. Especially the outbreaks in care homes are/were responsible for a large part of the German death toll.

No arguments there, UKgov comms is still terrible.

Chamberlain though didnt sit around and instead invested massively into the military. Without which preparation Churchill would have found his job a lot harder.

Boris' leak has had the desired effect and encouraged a lot of wishful thinking. 

Leaking before the bank hol will ensure none compliance over the long weekend thus when a second peak occurs following any relaxation, the buck can be passed from Westminster to the general public. 

So far as climbing is concerned, I wouldn't get excited. Any relaxation will be industry rather than leisure led, the treasury is not in the business of subsidising extended holidays. 

is it government conspiracy or media incompetence? Either way I think this BH weekend will be the effective end of lockdown for many, today's front pages will have opened the floodgates. 

P.S. or media conspiracy if they want the lockdown to end? 

I'd prefer the description; "murdering bastard".

He doesn't want to be questioned, and certainly wouldn't actually answer such questions.

It can't ease now, my house isn't sorted yet. The Horror. 

In my opinion the chances of the government specifically mentioning climbing at any point is somewhere between extremely unlikely and non existent.

Im starting outdoor next week. I can go alone to local crags and its no risk to anyone. 

When daily i keep seeing tw@s on motorbikes treating the roads as race tracks then there is no risk from outdoor climbing alone.

My other option is walking from home and being near lots of others out doing the same. 

Testing or Tested?

Have we tested the same amount of people as Germany?

On 28th April more than 100 combined deaths.

2nd May According to the Gov. 49 hospitals staff according to the Guardian 164.

So some way ahead of Germany.

And of course we've done nowhere near the test Germany has.

I like that you can tell us to relax, when you really don't have an idea of how it's being handles over here. I don't think we need to panic, but we're not in the same position as Germany, and we're not likely to be so some time. So you can poke your "relax" up your Schwanzstucker

testing. Much less. But the latter is not that relevant for the future. The question is at which level of daily new cases you have sufficient capacity to contain the spread. I think the UK should focus now more on the tracing part.

So because other people aren't being sensible it's fine for you to do whatever?

Doing whatever?

Going to a local crag alone is not a risk and dont give me the shit about the risk of driving etc.

I can walk up there as ive spoke to the police at ramshaw. 

Didn't Germany lockdown sooner though?  The level of restriction might be becoming the same, but the genie is already out of the bottle and granting wishes here.  The restrictions which have been enough to allow Germany to cope with a lower level of infection in the community may not be enough to allow the UK to cope with it's higher level of infection in the community.

This reminds me of the joke:-

"What is your wish, death, or Um Bongo?"

' I'll have death please'

"So be it - Death........by Um Bongoooooo!!!!!!!"

That's exactly how I feel. I haven't started my lockdown jobs yet. Blame the weather.

Yeah, I'm cracking on today with a new sense of urgency. 

This article has some great graphs of how the lockdown in UK differs from those in Italy and France.  We got to about 5,000 new cases per day and leveled it off with +/- 1000 case of bouncing about and no real clear downward trend.    Italy and France got to 5 or 6,000 cases/day and then pushed it down to about 1,000 cases.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/coronavirus-uk-lockdown-pea...

The data says we haven't locked down hard enough, not that we should be easing.   However, we shouldn't confuse locking down hard with unpleasant measures which have zero effect.   People miles away from each other aren't passing the virus so some of the rules are pointless.  But some of the things we aren't doing would obviously be very powerful in terms of reducing R e.g. isolating cases so they don't pass it on to two or three family members.

I agree, I mentioned climbing as this is binding interest of this forum. 

I suspect we are on a downward trend of cases, but because until the last week or so we basically weren't testing anyone with symptoms unless they were admitted to hospital so I'd expect our mid-april daily new cases were falsely low. 

Our current probably more accurate daily new cases are likely more accurate and concerning high, but there may also be a lag in these as people who've been ill for a week or two are only now getting tested.

If he had imposed a lockdown a fortnight earlier would it have made much difference to the thousands of people, some on UKC, who have refused to accept the spirit of the thing from the start and have resorted to nit picking legalese throughout to justify why they should be allowed to carry on doing what they want to do?

Probably yes, the number of people looking for loopholes or blatantly ignoring things are definitely in the minority. As is often the way though the minority are the most vocal.

We don't notice the millions of people doing the right thing but we notice the thousands that don't. 

This.

I had to go out on Saturday and was staggered at the number of people in the town centre, including numerous couples and even a family of 5 with 3 young children wandering around without a care in the world!

Don't Come To Cumbria soon!

Look at the map here:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/07/coronavirus-uk-latest-deaths-...

we'd like to make it through this!   (North East particularly take note - you might take back more than Kendal Mint Cake)

I really have been trying to keep out of Penrith whenever possible.  got to know the local woods very well indeed.

Unfortunately, the post office isn't in the middle of the local woods and the tiny one in the local convenience store is currently closed.

Thanks for that link. Wonder why the SW has the lowest cases per 100k.

I wasn't claiming to be righteous- I just prefer to avoid it, particularly at the moment

Maybe... I think Germany took it more seriously from the start. What probably helped a lot was that all companies told their employees to stay home as soon as you had minor symptoms. We had a lot of isolating suspect cases before the general measures started.

It is a bit surreal. We had some of the earliest cases,  mainly from the posh school ski trips to Italy.  Since then for whatever reason its not really spread.  Pleased about that obviously. 

Hospital case numbers are tiny, less than 300 across the whole region I think. 

In that context the lockdown has been tough to take. Yes I have rigorously observed it but increasingly it looks like others are letting their guard down.

Now is the time for appropriate sensible change. Not too quick, just sensible and understandable. 

I wonder that too. sitting here in Dorset I went out for my fortnightly shop and there was a distinct lack of social distancing, and many people out in 2s 3s and whole families. Just comes down to a more sparsely populated area? But then you'd think Cumbria would be the same?? There's definitely more OAPs here, so perhaps sticking to self isolation more strictly?

perhaps we'll see a cordon sanitaire round us to prevent the plague county inhabitants getting out ...

But some fair sized cities - Bristol fairly lightly affected for instance. 

For some reason Plymouth and Torbay have a lot more cases than the rest of Devon.

Torbay did have the first cases, not sure why Plymouth cases are more than Exeter though?

Seems like the changes to lockdown are going to be slight and I get how it could be complicated to differentiate between areas. However continuing to apply the same rules in South Devon as exist in central London is getting a bit difficult to understand. 

Exeter has a very large student population- over 22,000, the total population was around 130,000 in 2016. Nearly all of them left rapidly just before or at the start of lockdown.

Good point. Plymouth has quite a few too though.

It's hard to judge lockdown compliance compared to other areas, for obvious reasons, but I wonder if generally people have strictly followed the guidance here?

I appreciate it isn't as serious as loss of life but the tourist industry down here is in a pretty bad place. It is more seasonal than some places and is focused on spring and summer. If there is no way to open some elements soon many businesses will fail in weeks, not months.

Here is semi rural Notts it appears the lockdown has ended. Very busy and when shopping for some essentials at the Tesco local, people were behaving as though nothing had happened.

You're in Newark, aren't you? Rushcliffe is still being very respectful of the 2m rule, as far as I could see. Lots of socially distanced street parties, though and a solitary narrowboat cruising up and down, bedecked in bunting and blaring out vera Lynn 

What's that got to do with the chaos and lack of preparedness regarding PPE ?

What's that got to do with people diagnosed with CV-19 being sent back into Care Homes ?

What's that got to do with the fact that we now have ZERO tracing, so have absolutely NO idea as to who is passing this virus on ?

What's that got to do with his continual evading any questioning from Parliament ?

What's that got to do with his apparent complete unwillingness to achieve consensus with Scotland/Wales/Northern Ireland/The Opposition ?

Why on earth have you brought up the idiots who've carried on regardless and tried to tar me with the same brush ? Which is a complete and utter bloody lie, so I'd normally expect an apology, but won't hold my breath.

Because all of those things would have been less of an issue if we'd acted earlier.

Not sure they were having a go at you , more simple stating a fact. There are plenty of people agruing, we can do a lot of stuff we used to do, without any harm, but also without any evidence of how there won't be any extra risk of harm.

Interesting on herd immunity, looking at other illnesses you need around 90 percent plus to have herd immunity.

I'd be surprised if 10percent have had it yet.

Like you say, that relies on having it once giving you immunity. 

Has anyone else noticed that of the traffic going around regularly "the school run" has been replaced by "the dogwalking run" in the big car?