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Permanent societal changes due to covid

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 MG 22 Jan 2021

Presumably at some point we will be allowed to meet again, however, it seems likely to be pretty restricted for years if not for ever.  Consequently, a lot of pubs, sports clubs, societies etc aren't coming back (which is a great pity).  What will we do instead?   Humans are inherently gregarious so is this going to lead to all sorts of societal problems?

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 Toccata 22 Jan 2021
In reply to MG:

Worsening inequality. A colleague’s children’s prep school has remained fully open throughout current lockdown having declared all the parents key workers. Full time education continues for the affluent.

Worsening inequality. Travel is not restricted for those able to work the system. I know many who have been moving internationally because of exemptions based on wealth or status.

Worsening inequality. As assets at the lower end of the scale become cheaper due to financial pressure (houses certainly spring to mind) and the cash rich Hoover them up.

Worsening inequality. A race to the bottom for global economies (outside huge trade blocks) to try a re-energise their economies after the massive recession.

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 Dax H 22 Jan 2021
In reply to MG:

Might be a while but I don't see a problem, China managed to do public things after SARS and MERS. 

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OP MG 22 Jan 2021
In reply to Dax H:

> Might be a while but I don't see a problem, China managed to do public things after SARS and MERS. 

But that was brief.  This is long enough for reserves to run out. My squash club has just closed permanently as a result  for example. 

Alyson30 22 Jan 2021
In reply to MG:

> But that was brief.  This is long enough for reserves to run out. My squash club has just closed permanently as a result  for example. 

Many places will close but new ones will open - they just might not be the same pubs or the same squash clubs - but as long as there is demand for it these things will just come back, and probably quicker than you think.

That is unless the government manages to counteract the forces of an economic recovery with extreme incompetence, which is after all a possibility. 

Post edited at 21:20
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mick taylor 22 Jan 2021
In reply to MG:

Hopefully, it might give people a kick up the arse to vote for a party with policies that address inequality.  Hopefully...

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OP MG 22 Jan 2021
In reply to Alyson30:

> Many places will close but new ones will open - they just might not be the same pubs or the same squash clubs - but as long as there is demand

As long as... In many cases there wont be because people.will be much more.reticent about crowds and proximity. Hence my question about societal change.

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 wintertree 22 Jan 2021
In reply to Toccata:

I think the vaccine situation (global demand way outstripping supply), the growing number of variants and the consequences for international travel are going to drive worse inequality as well.

Going off our experiences of home schooling and the cohort wide communication from the school, I think this is driving a wedge along inequality lines through the state sector as well as between state and independent.  

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 girlymonkey 22 Jan 2021
In reply to MG:

I think the reticence about groups and crowds won't last long. A month or two of steady, low, infections and people will resume their old habits. The indoor spaces will reopen or new ones will open as a result of the demand. 

 mik82 22 Jan 2021
In reply to Toccata:

>Worsening inequality. As assets at the lower end of the scale become cheaper due to financial pressure (houses certainly spring to mind) and the cash rich Hoover them up.

I'd agree with worsening equality in general, but increasing, not decreasing, asset prices worsen inequality as they favour those already with assets -i.e. the richer. 

The scenario that seems to be playing out is that government/central bank intervention such as QE, interest rate cuts and stamp duty holidays are increasing asset prices, and hence inequality.

Post edited at 21:38
 Wimlands 22 Jan 2021
In reply to MG:

I was went to in work the other week, taking a break from working from the spare bedroom, typically there were 800 people in the office in 2019, just about reached double figures when I was there...

There is no way people are going back to offices...I can see a huge reduction in travel to work. 
 

I was a regular festival goer...I can’t see me going back to one.

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In reply to Toccata:

> Worsening inequality.

Actually, less personal can reduce inequality.

Right now I am working from home on a project for a company in Pakistan, in the evening I'm playing GTA and my friends in the game are in Bolivia.

I've never seen any of these people.  I very rarely talk to my customer on the phone, it's all Skype messaging and e-mail and a lot of it.  They prefer text, presumably because they are more used to reading than speaking English.

The interesting thing is when you don't see people all the things which normally cause bias don't matter.   Nice clothes, confident presentation, being tall, skin colour, even gender.   A lot of people who are in a group which gets discriminated against, or naturally quiet or better at written than face to face presentation will do better in a society with less face to face contact in the workplace.  Loud bullying bullsh*t artists like Boris, on the other hand, won't be able to make progress through personal presence in face to face meetings.

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Alyson30 22 Jan 2021
In reply to MG:

> As long as... In many cases there wont be because people.will be much more.reticent about crowds and proximity.

Assuming we are talking about what would happen once the pandemic is over, even though it is true that we may have a lot more germaphobes, I don’t believe this is going to be enough to prevent people from wanting to go to the pub.

Once thing is for sure, as far as I am concerned, a massive piss up in the pub will be in order as soon as the sanitary situation permits.

I’m really not worried about things like pubs or sports clubs... these are industries that are indestructible and have gone on for centuries with ups and down.

I am a lot more worried about the inequality the pandemic is generating, in no small part because of the fiscal and monetary response to it.

Post edited at 22:03
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mattmurphy 22 Jan 2021
In reply to MG:

Interesting idea, but I’m 100% certain that life will go back to the way it was before once the restrictions are removed.

People will continue to live in cities, they will still commute into the office.

Anyone hoping for wholesale change is naively deluded. 

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Alyson30 22 Jan 2021
In reply to mattmurphy:

> People will continue to live in cities, they will still commute into the office.

> Anyone hoping for wholesale change is naively deluded. 

I agree. For sure we will see a lot more WFH - just from the fact that many more people are enabled to do it - but even that I think is overestimated, this isn’t going to be the end of the office.

 elliot.baker 22 Jan 2021
In reply to mattmurphy:

I agree, for all its faults and all its positives I expect life will eventually be basically the same. 
 

A lot of doom in this thread.

Post edited at 22:11
 Philip 22 Jan 2021
In reply to MG:

I expect caution with infections, and more scrutiny of travellers. Hygiene may improve, I expect for a while we'll be nervous when people stand close, how waiters act for example. I imagine mask wearing on the tube would be more common.

What will be hard for shops and entertainment venues is the gap between reopening and normality. I will return to the climbing wall as soon as my son can go back to kids club, and can't wait for pools to reopen, but I expect they'll be quieter than before.

 Neil Williams 22 Jan 2021
In reply to MG:

> Presumably at some point we will be allowed to meet again, however, it seems likely to be pretty restricted for years if not for ever.  Consequently, a lot of pubs, sports clubs, societies etc aren't coming back (which is a great pity).  What will we do instead?   Humans are inherently gregarious so is this going to lead to all sorts of societal problems?

I think nightclubs are done for.  They were going out of fashion anyway, people preferred trendy bars.  Seated bars/pubs are likely to be viable again, most likely any very long term restrictions will be a bit like Tier 1 was over the summer, though we might have to accept higher prices to offset not getting as many people in.

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OP MG 22 Jan 2021
In reply to mattmurphy:

> Interesting idea, but I’m 100% certain that life will go back to the way it was before once the restrictions are removed.

Why are you so certain even that restrictions will be removed.

> People will continue to live in cities, they will still commute into the office.

Some. Some won't (including me )

> Anyone hoping for wholesale change is naively deluded. 

I think you are wrong. Already some.companies are announcing permanent changes to ways of working.

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 Neil Williams 22 Jan 2021
In reply to Philip:

> I expect caution with infections, and more scrutiny of travellers. Hygiene may improve, I expect for a while we'll be nervous when people stand close, how waiters act for example. I imagine mask wearing on the tube would be more common.

I think we might go the way Asia did off the back of SARS, i.e. wear masks when we have a cold out of consideration for others.  No bad thing, that.

Alyson30 22 Jan 2021
In reply to elliot.baker:

> I agree, for all its faults and all its positives I expect life will eventually be basically the same. 

The question is when. In 1, 2, 5 or 10 years ? I don’t think anybody really knows.

Alyson30 22 Jan 2021
In reply to Neil Williams:

> I think we might go the way Asia did off the back of SARS, i.e. wear masks when we have a cold out of consideration for others.  No bad thing, that.

I’m hoping people will have integrated hand hygiene, but I’m not holding my breath.

 Neil Williams 22 Jan 2021
In reply to MG:

> But that was brief.  This is long enough for reserves to run out. My squash club has just closed permanently as a result  for example.

Presumably there is now a building containing squash courts which can be sold off to someone else who wants to open a squash club later.  Of course it might just become housing, I suppose.  But looking at pubs, what it's basically done is caused a bonfire of all the non-viable ones that would have closed over a period of time anyway.

I think the future of the pub (probably as a seated, table service affair as it basically is in the rest of the world) is probably just in town centres, estate pubs are the most likely to fail, though they often become other, often more useful things like Co-ops.  My nearest Co-op, indeed, is in the building of what used to be a pretty awful and always-nearly-empty chavvy estate pub.

And the virus will probably evolve to weaken over time, they usually do.  Pandemics in history have generally only lasted a couple of years.  It'll be one of the common cold viruses by 2050 or so.

Post edited at 22:21
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 mik82 22 Jan 2021
In reply to mattmurphy:

Most things will be similar, but I think people's expectations of the time frame to return to this will differ from the reality.

Foreign travel is never going back to the way it was, in the same way that flying has never been the same post 2001.

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 Neil Williams 22 Jan 2021
In reply to Alyson30:

> I’m hoping people will have integrated hand hygiene, but I’m not holding my breath.

An interesting question is whether *overdoing* hygiene harms immune system development, though.  It's one theory that has been posited for kids developing so many allergies these days, namely that they aren't exposed to as many genuine pathogens to actually fight.

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Alyson30 22 Jan 2021
In reply to MG:

> I think you are wrong. Already some.companies are announcing permanent changes to ways of working.

That is undeniable. It’s pretty clear that offices will change from a place where you go to sit at desk to do work, to a place where you’ll go to collaborate - with the space currently allocated to rows of desks transformed into well equipped meeting / collab areas.

This will be all for the best frankly. What was the point of commuting miles just to sit at a desk, and spend the day on the phone, and not speak to anyone around you, because they are also stuck on the phone all day.

This was already happening, I guess this just made it go a lot, lot faster. But I bet office spaces still have a lot of potential ahead !

Post edited at 22:32
 Neil Williams 22 Jan 2021
In reply to mik82:

> Foreign travel is never going back to the way it was, in the same way that flying has never been the same post 2001.

I reckon 3-5 years, tending towards 5, for more recovery on foreign travel.  It'll be like the Yellow Fever countries - you'll need a stamp in your passport to prove vaccination or you're not coming in.

 wintertree 22 Jan 2021
In reply to MG:

I hope public spitting goes right back to the top of the anti social list.

 Neil Williams 22 Jan 2021
In reply to mik82:

> flying has never been the same post 2001.

Other than going in the cockpit in flight, I'd say the "liquid explosive" fiasco had more of an impact on flying in Europe than 9/11 did.  It had a huge impact in the US, of course, where airport security barely existed before that - it was *insanely* lax in places.

The only significant change I really noticed from pre to post 9/11 was that you had to put your wallet and keys through the X-ray rather than in a little tray by the metal detector.

Post edited at 22:28
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Alyson30 22 Jan 2021
In reply to Neil Williams:

> An interesting question is whether *overdoing* hygiene harms immune system development, though.  It's one theory that has been posited for kids developing so many allergies these days, namely that they aren't exposed to as many genuine pathogens to actually fight.

I think this may have more to do with over cleanliness in the environment, in particular in the home, rather than personal hygiene ? I don’t know that’s what I vaguely remember from reading on the topic. Didn’t seem like there was much certainty around this anyway.

 Neil Williams 22 Jan 2021
In reply to MG:

> I think you are wrong. Already some.companies are announcing permanent changes to ways of working.

The shift to WFH was already happening, driven by the IT industry - for me (in IT) the big shift happened in about 2014 or so, when clients suddenly went from "we don't trust you not to do other stuff, we want you on site" to "we don't want to pay the cost of having you on site, we want you remote".  What I'd say is that COVID has accelerated it by about 10 years or so.  I'd agree people will do say 2 days a week in the office to collaborate then go home to get their head down (Zoom/Teams meetings do work, but not as effectively as in-person workshops).

Post edited at 22:31
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 Neil Williams 22 Jan 2021
In reply to Alyson30:

> I think this may have more to do with over cleanliness in the environment, in particular in the home, rather than personal hygiene ? I don’t know that’s what I vaguely remember from reading on the topic. Didn’t seem like there was much certainty around this anyway.

I think there's going to be a lot of conflict over this which could make things challenging.  I wash after use of the loo (I'm not that disgusting) but otherwise, unless cooking for someone else*, I am not obsessive about hand hygiene at all.  I also pretty much never get sick** (in an infection sense; those who know me will be aware I have actually been quite ill of late for reasons not relating to infection, though now on the slow mend).  Make of that what you want, but I have a feeling it may end up as a bit of a polarised "clash of the titans" as per Brexit etc, between the "germophobes" and those who aren't overly bothered.

* I'm also obsessive when touching something someone else may touch in a COVID context, e.g. sanitising before getting stuff out of one of those cool little delivery robots we have in MK, but I'm not at all obsessive about sanitising the actual shopping as some people do.  If I was CEV or lived with someone who was that might of course be very different.

** Other than about 6 colds a year, which I can normally trace back to having sat near someone with one a few days earlier, the actual flu twice ever and chickenpox when I was 7.  And very mild food poisoning twice, once of which was caused by eating a sandwich with genuinely filthy hands having been in and out of a muddy lake doing rafting with Scouts, and one of which was caused by a dodgy restaurant meal in China.

Post edited at 22:38
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OP MG 22 Jan 2021
In reply to Neil Williams:

Yes, absolutely.  I think about 10 years change has been squashed into 6 months in terms of working practices in many areas, and this largely permanent.

 Dave the Rave 22 Jan 2021
In reply to MG:

A horse walks into a bar. 
 

The barman says, why the long face?

hahhahahahahahha hahahaha hahahaha 

 wintertree 22 Jan 2021
In reply to mattmurphy:

> Anyone hoping for wholesale change is naively deluded. 

To my reading, people are giving their best estimate of what they think will happen.  They are not “hopping”.

You seem to be off on a tangent of over interpretation.

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 Neil Williams 22 Jan 2021
In reply to MG:

What might be more interesting to hypothesize about would be if there is a nasty vaccine evading (i.e. evasive of all vaccines like say HIV, not just requiring a different spike to be learnt by the immune system), highly transmissible but still deadly variant.

It will be impossible to hold even the current level of lockdown for years; civil unrest would certainly result.  So what might happen then?

Hopefully we won't find out, and fortunately coronaviruses tend not to do that as the spike is their big vulnerability, even if we do end up needing to chase it with different vaccines each year like flu (which I'd see as quite likely).

Post edited at 22:46
OP MG 22 Jan 2021
In reply to Neil Williams:

Yes, this is only a minor pandemic, really, compared to say the Black Death, or even Spanish Flu.  Mers and Sars were a similar virus apparently so what happens if there is another with Covid 19s transmission characteristis but MERs mortality?  Chaos, I suppose.

 Neil Williams 22 Jan 2021
In reply to MG:

> Yes, this is only a minor pandemic, really, compared to say the Black Death, or even Spanish Flu.  Mers and Sars were a similar virus apparently so what happens if there is another with Covid 19s transmission characteristis but MERs mortality?  Chaos, I suppose.

You *tend* to find that viruses with a high mortality rate die out because they kill their host too quickly to spread, which is to some extent what happened with MERS.

The "disaster scenario" is a virus as deadly as MERS which has an asymptomatic transmission period like SARS-CoV-2 does.  Even worse if like Spanish Flu it was one that targetted younger people with strong immune systems by inducing a cytokine storm, which SARS-CoV-2 can do but usually doesn't.

Perhaps in that case the further development of mRNA vaccines would save the day, as that really speeds things up.

Post edited at 22:53
 mik82 22 Jan 2021
In reply to MG:

We have the tools to deal with it. If it was a MERS-like virus we could now produce an emergency vaccine and deploy it very quickly. 

mattmurphy 22 Jan 2021
In reply to Neil Williams:

> What might be more interesting to hypothesize about would be if there is a nasty vaccine evading (i.e. evasive of all vaccines like say HIV, not just requiring a different spike to be learnt by the immune system), highly transmissible but still deadly variant.

> It will be impossible to hold even the current level of lockdown for years; civil unrest would certainly result.  So what might happen then?

> Hopefully we won't find out, and fortunately coronaviruses tend not to do that as the spike is their big vulnerability, even if we do end up needing to chase it with different vaccines each year like flu (which I'd see as quite likely).

Well look at Spanish Flu. I still don’t know what to make of the mortality figures (whether the young were more likely to die due to cytokine storms or just because they they were malnourished because of the war). Either way it was still pretty deadly, but it disappeared in a few years.

Life goes on. People go on. Politics goes on. 

I’m sure I’ll be slated for saying this, but I’m immune to the daily death figures. 1000+ no longer bothers me. I just long for the day I can eat nice French food in a restaurant.

Post edited at 22:55
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OP MG 22 Jan 2021
In reply to mik82:

> We have the tools to deal with it. If it was a MERS-like virus we could now produce an emergency vaccine and deploy it very quickly. 

Well, we have had a vaccine in record time with Covid.  If it took a similar time there would be a millions  dead in the UK by now with all the associated knock-on effects.  I think we would be struggling to feed people.

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 Neil Williams 22 Jan 2021
In reply to MG:

> Well, we have had a vaccine in record time with Covid.  If it took a similar time there would be a millions  dead in the UK by now with all the associated knock-on effects.  I think we would be struggling to feed people.

I suspect people would be willing for higher risks to be taken on clinical trials (i.e. shortening them) if it was causing that level of mortality.  Even more so if it was killing children all over the place.

Post edited at 23:00
OP MG 22 Jan 2021
In reply to Neil Williams:

You woudl hope so but I was struck by how stuck in the mud regulators seemed this time round.  I get the risks of getting it wrong are high too but there didn't seem much flexibility (the EU have still to approve the Oxford vaccine).

THere is also the manufacturing time required.

Post edited at 23:01
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 Neil Williams 22 Jan 2021
In reply to mattmurphy:

> Well look at Spanish Flu. I still don’t know what to make of the mortality figures (whether the young were more likely to die due to cytokine storms or just because they they were malnourished because of the war). Either way it was still pretty deadly, but it disappeared in a few years.

It's actually still there going around, but mutated to be less deadly, as viruses often do.  Coronaviruses don't mutate as quickly as flu viruses, though, which is in one sense a good thing (easier to chase them with vaccines) but not in others (will take a while to follow the "more transmissible but less deadly" line of evolution that often happens).

 mik82 22 Jan 2021
In reply to MG:

The technology is there though - we could get an emergency mRNA vaccine out in a fraction of the time it's taken to develop the SARS-CoV-2 one. We know that continuing unrestricted foreign travel and introducing control measures slowly are bad. Something with a 35% IFR  would be apparent very quickly and stamped on very hard, very fast.

Post edited at 23:13
 Neil Williams 22 Jan 2021
In reply to mik82:

What will be interesting to see if, having realised that the population will accept lockdowns, they are used in any form in the event of a very bad flu year which does happen from time to time.

In reply to MG:

> I think you are wrong. Already some.companies are announcing permanent changes to ways of working.

Yup. Mine is. It's been a revelation for HR to find that, contrary to their assumption that staff cannot be trusted to work if someone isn't breathing down their neck (and these are professional jobs), we have found little drop in productivity.

I expect to see some serious re-working of 'the office', and a much greater mix of WFH and WFO.

Of course, HR being HR, they may, like Tory governments, forget the lessons of covid and return to their innate belief that staff cannot be trusted.

 Neil Williams 22 Jan 2021
In reply to captain paranoia:

Nowt to do with COVID, but getting rid of HR as a policy-making organisation may not be a bad bet.  For years I worked for a small firm that didn't have an HR department per-se, just someone doing the admin side.  HR issues were dealt with by the line management structure in so much as it existed (it was only one layer plus the directors), i.e. people who didn't just understand paper-pushing but also the realities of the business.

HR, IT etc should serve the business's needs (and do nothing that doesn't), but far too often they become self-perpetuating in large organisations.

Or relating to this specific case - a policy on home-working is not an HR matter, it's to be defined by the management structure, even if HR go on to ensure it is followed and deal with it if it isn't.

Post edited at 23:51
Roadrunner6 22 Jan 2021
In reply to Toccata:

"Worsening inequality. A colleague’s children’s prep school has remained fully open throughout current lockdown having declared all the parents key workers. Full time education continues for the affluent."

As a prep school teacher, we largely stayed open. I see your point but I don't see why we should punish our kids just out of solidarity. The public schools closed because their class sizes are too high, we largely have small class sizes. We do have kids who have stayed remote and we'll have to meet those kids where they are when they get back in the fall (we're a top prep school but I'd say 10% of our kids are scholarships from the community). TBH I think it'll be worse just for those kids whose parents had to go in, largely low wage service workers, whereas management types could stay home and with a parent in the house kids tend to be a bit more disciplined. We've kids who are at home and looking after their younger siblings and are a mess.

Re WFH, I think it'll change. Offices will still be needed but more hot desking, 2-3 days a week from home. Less work travel.

The main issue will be strong counter-urbanization as a result, higher house prices in more remote areas. 

 Dax H 23 Jan 2021
In reply to Neil Williams:

> I think we might go the way Asia did off the back of SARS, i.e. wear masks when we have a cold out of consideration for others.  No bad thing, that.

That would be a great thing but I think mask wearing will be dropped by most ASAP. It's taken a long time to get people to wear them in shops and as someone mentioned on a different thread out on site they look at you like you have 2 heads if you ask people to mask up and maintain distance. 

 Wainers44 23 Jan 2021
In reply to MG:

First a caveat that I am finding it hard to be positive about anything at the moment.  Mum got her vaccination this week which was good but that aside the news generally seems to have flipped to a never ending monologue about just how sh*t life will be for years to come. 

It seems my freedom to go to a beach,  sit in my little tent on a moor,  run too far to run back home so needing to be collected, surf on the other coast from where I live, drive to the Lakes to climb a hill before dawn,  and many more little things may not return anytime soon..

Yes, I totally get why its necessary now, no I won't break the rules as I won't kid myself that it wouldn't matter.

But around me I see so many others choosing to be irresponsible,  loads of traffic still on the roads, the police picking on easy targets, but seemingly ignoring the blatant acts of some....parties...etc?

The NHS continues to hold itself, and with it our whole society together, through the absolute heroic efforts of the people who work for it. We say we appreciate their efforts but the behaviour of many doesn't really show that?

So freedom? What will that mean in 6 ...12...24 months time? Freedom for me, boring responsible me  to go nowhere and do nothing while its still OK for 100k people to smoke themselves to death every year, putting as much pressure on the NHS as covid...but just not as visible?

No, none of the above makes sense, but pretty much nothing does at the moment. 

 Doug 23 Jan 2021
In reply to Roadrunner6:

A slight tangent but are USA prep schools the same as English prep schools ? I often have to read your posts twice when I realise that a phrase such as "The public schools closed because their class sizes are too high" doesn't refer to what are known as public schools in the UK.

 Kalna_kaza 23 Jan 2021
In reply to Doug:

>  to what are known as public schools in the UK.

We really ought to get with the times in the UK in how we refer to schools, it's so counter intuitive to use the terminology from the, I'm guessing, Victorian era.

Surely state run schools should be referred to as state, public or normal schools.

Schools which charge fees (scholarship excepted) should be referred to as private or fee paying school. "Public school" in this context is just absurd.

Back on topic, there's no way the same number of people will commute every day when WFH is an option. Most people in office jobs will have some form of flexible working pattern.

 summo 23 Jan 2021
In reply to Neil Williams:

> I think nightclubs are done for.  They were going out of fashion anyway, people preferred trendy bars.  Seated bars/pubs are likely to be viable again, most likely any very long term restrictions will be a bit like Tier 1 was over the summer, though we might have to accept higher prices to offset not getting as many people in.

They weren't, haven't or won't, it's just that when you/we reach a certain age we value a good night's sleep more, or aren't prepared to stand all night and expect a seat. Night clubs will recover, the youngsters don't want to sit in quiet pubs listening to oldies discuss the grade of 3PS. 

Post edited at 08:19
 Neil Williams 23 Jan 2021
In reply to summo:

> They weren't, haven't or won't, it's just that when you/we reach a certain age we value a good night's sleep more, or aren't prepared to stand all night and expect a seat. Night clubs will recover, the youngsters don't want to sit in quiet pubs listening to oldies discuss the grade of 3PS.

Sitting with the old blokes in the corner of Wetherspoons maybe not, but I'm not sure clubbing was their thing either.  "Trendy bars" giving more of an experience are probably more of their thing (I think "experience" is a fairly key word describing what younger people are after).  And a lot fewer young people are drinking, they are spending money on tech instead.

 summo 23 Jan 2021
In reply to Neil Williams:

The HR empire built itself partly because of lazy or incompetent management, the "let hr deal with x", "that's a hr problem", "let's see what hr thinks". 

 kipper12 23 Jan 2021
In reply to MG:

> Yes, this is only a minor pandemic, really, compared to say the Black Death, or even Spanish Flu.  Mers and Sars were a similar virus apparently so what happens if there is another with Covid 19s transmission characteristis but MERs mortality?  Chaos, I suppose.

I think we have modern medicine and science to thank for that.  Strip away the intensive care support, the development of novel mRNA vaccines and I’m sure the toll would give Spanish flue or Black Death a run

 NaCl 23 Jan 2021
In reply to mik82:

"We know that continuing unrestricted foreign travel and introducing control measures slowly are bad' 

I would have thought this was plain common sense but this government screwed the pooch for ages on flights and consistently have been too late with controls. Who can honestly say that they didn't see a spike coming after Boris' Christmas debacle? It's entirely possible for future governments to be this useless unfortunately. 

 summo 23 Jan 2021
In reply to Neil Williams:

> Sitting with the old blokes in the corner of Wetherspoons maybe not, but I'm not sure clubbing was their thing either.  "Trendy bars" giving more of an experience are probably more of their thing (I think "experience" is a fairly key word describing what younger people are after).  And a lot fewer young people are drinking, they are spending money on tech instead.

Maybe it's less than it appears, but there has been demand for pop up secret raves during lockdown. 

Most other countries drink less alcohol but still have night clubs, it's only the uk that has to do everything smashed off its face. Many countries have preparty at home, they'll skip the bars and just head direct to a club at 10 or 11. 

 Neil Williams 23 Jan 2021
In reply to summo:

> The HR empire built itself partly because of lazy or incompetent management, the "let hr deal with x", "that's a hr problem", "let's see what hr thinks".

Agreed, Britain is built on lazy and incompetent management...The Office is too true.

At least we call it HR rather than lots of nasty euphemisms the Americans come up with for it.  I recall it being called "Leadership and Change Management" in one of the companies I worked for, which is just nasty and demonstrates that their priorities weren't people.

It's clearly needed for administrative purposes, but it shouldn't be leading the business and so often is.

Post edited at 08:30
 summo 23 Jan 2021
In reply to Neil Williams:

> Agreed, Britain is built on lazy and incompetent management...The Office is too true.

Everyone knows a David Brent in middle management HR, who has an even less competent side kick. 

 DerwentDiluted 23 Jan 2021
In reply to elliot.baker:

> I agree, for all its faults and all its positives I expect life will eventually be basically the same. 

> A lot of doom in this thread.

I tend to agree.

1918-19 Spanish Flu & War... death horror misery

1920's - roaring.

But lets not stretch the historical precedent into the 30s!

 tom r 23 Jan 2021
In reply to mik82:

Yes quite. Back in march there was a really interesting video on the bbc from the woman leading the oxford vaccine program. In it she said they got the genome sequence from China, loaded it into their computer system which ran over the weekend which produced a computer model of the vaccine. From memory I think they said they actually had a physical vaccine in a week! It's all the regulatory testing that takes ages. As we have seen if there is overwhelming pressure to get it out this time gets shortened. I tried refinding this video but I think it might have been removed.

In terms of wfh I think it will be fairly standard for 2-3 days a week In office based companies but long term full wfh will be bad for companies. Wfh is ok if you have met the people before but if this is carried on for say 5 years when most people have not met each other I think the productivity of companies would go down a lot.

I work in a multinational company. I was on teams calls with people from 6 different counties yesterday. The most effective communication by far is with people I have known and been in an office with for years. For non physical based goods companies, the soft invisible bonds people  have after spending a long time together in the office; on lunch hours: after work drinks is very important.

Post edited at 09:46
 Neil Williams 23 Jan 2021
In reply to tom r:

> In terms of wfh I think it will be fairly standard for 2-3 days a week I  office based companies but long term full wfh will be bad for companies. Wfh is ok if you have met the people before but if this is carried on for say 5 years when most people have not met each other I think the productivity of companies would go down a lot.

From experience, it doesn't.  I do agree it feels like less of a community, though, and it's important to have regular (virtual) meetings to try to keep that up to some extent.  A "daily standup" is absolutely essential, and we have a Friday evening "virtual pub" too.

 Ridge 23 Jan 2021
In reply to tom_in_edinburgh:

> A lot of people who are in a group which gets discriminated against, or naturally quiet or better at written than face to face presentation will do better in a society with less face to face contact in the workplace.  Loud bullying bullsh*t artists like Boris, on the other hand, won't be able to make progress through personal presence in face to face meetings.

I think this is a really good point. I'm certainly seeing the less extrovert, more competent and also younger members of staff being able to contribute more to phone and video meetings.

As you say, it's much harder for the managers who rely on 'presence' or bullshitting, or even intimidation to dominate meetings. I think we're now seeing a lot more considered decision making rather than everyone jumping on the bullshit bandwagon to get ahead.

In terms of WFH, we were told last summer that we wouldn't be back in the office full time. My employer was already moving office based staff from the main industrial site to satellite offices, and I'm sure they've twigged the savings to be had from WFH. It'll be WFH mixed with going in for face to face meetings, printing stuff to take home etc.

My main concern is this is going to widen the gulf between industrial and office staff, and we might end up with a societal split between affluent WFH consumers and ZHC 'serfs' delivering their groceries and tat from Amazon. 

I think home deliveries will expand, as having to deal with people too stupid to wear masks or respect social distancing has convinced us that mixing with dickheads for a few hours a week doing the shopping is something we won't miss.

I'm not sure what will happen on the pub front. We really miss a few pints with mates, but over the last year our alcohol consumption has reduced massively, so not sure we'll be using pubs as much. We'll have to see what happens in future there.

I'm also pretty intolerant of people who invade my personal space in pubs at the best of times, Covid has embedded that, so I probably won't be visting heaving pubs again, regardless if Covid is eliminated.

Likewise air travel. Hanging round an airport for a couple of hours for the privilege of a few hours breathing in other people's BO and respiratory diseases? Nah, I won't miss that.

Post edited at 10:17
1
 Toccata 23 Jan 2021
In reply to Roadrunner6:

I might be wrong but I thought schools were closed to prevent the spread of a virus that threatened to overwhelm hospitals, not to punish children. Small classes or not, if the children in a school do not need to mix (other than genuine key worker parents) then it is nothing other than selfishness that they are in class. None of us wants to be home schooling and I find it disgraceful that some think it acceptable to buy such an advantage to the direct detriment of the nation’s health.

 stp 23 Jan 2021
In reply to MG:

>> Anyone hoping for wholesale change is naively deluded. 

> I think you are wrong

I think for evidence we can look at other countries. Britain is one of the worst affected countries and at our peak right now. Many countries have been back to normal already for sometime. I recently saw a video of people on a beach in Australia. I was shocked to see that they were all close together and not wearing masks. I quickly figured out why.

I heard a scientist saying they thought we could be back to normal in about year if we come up with a plan and stick to it. Unfortunately planning is not something our government likes to do so it might well be longer.

 stp 23 Jan 2021
In reply to MG:

One thing I think could endure beyond the pandemic is weird beliefs from online cults.

There's no doubt cabin fever combined with Facebook has lead many people to some pretty strange beliefs. And ideas and beliefs do seem to endure longer than just about anything. Just look at various religions whose ideas should have been dropped hundreds of years ago yet still continue today.

I saw a BBC interview with a guy whose mother believed in some nonsense conspiracies. He said he thought he would never get his mother back now. She had just gone too far after getting obsessed, talking at rallies that some of these groups hold etc..

I'm sure many will drop these beliefs once they start interacting with real people again. But I suspect there will also be a hardcore of those that stay committed for some time later.

Removed User 23 Jan 2021
In reply to DerwentDiluted:

> I tend to agree.

> 1918-19 Spanish Flu & War... death horror misery

> 1920's - roaring.

Yes, I'm hoping it'll pan out like this but it all depends upon whether the virus vanishes like Spanish flu. I do wonder what our efforts at suppression are doing to the evolutionary timeline for this virus and whether it will be longer before herd immunity (through vaccination) occurs.

Assuming we can get back to a normalish life 2022 then after that WFH will mean our cities change as we no longer travel to or use offices as much. Retail will move further online, again changing our high streets and cash will be regarded as rather old fashioned.

International travel will require vaccine passports for some time and more holidays will be taken in people's home countries. Good for the UK and other Northern countries, bad for Spain and other Southern ones. When restrictions do finally end though we'll start travelling again.

Pubs and restaurants will flourish as soon as we start mixing again. 

 AllanMac 23 Jan 2021
In reply to MG:

Voting behaviour and media bias will have to change, as it becomes more obvious 'on the ground' that disaster capitalism is the very least appropriate post-pandemic ideology to effectively normalise society.  The rich will no doubt get richer in their only too accustomed traditional manner, at the expense of the poor, until new political dialogues emerge to compensate for that widening disparity. The Murdoch Empire, and its political umbilical cord is likely to sever, or switch allegiance.

This will take time, longer than a generation or two, but it will happen (it has no choice, as infinite growth on a sick planet, is frankly a myth).

Maybe a reboot of collective common sense is wishful thinking? 

3
Roadrunner6 23 Jan 2021
In reply to Doug:

Yeah prep schools tend to be independent. We're a Pre-K to grade 12 (18 year olds) school.

Public schools mean state schools, I've finally adjusted to saying public schools.

Roadrunner6 23 Jan 2021
In reply to Toccata:

Yeah your wrong.

We've not had one case of transmission.

With small class sizes, always masked we can and have done it.

And you know when schools go back, you know how they'll know what works? Because of schools like ours.

The Mass Dept of public health are using us as the example, they come in and suggest what we do, seating plans, distances, contact tracing. This month they suggested we go remote for two weeks as cases surged and we did. But local public health experts fully support us being in school, yet some muppet 2000 miles away thinks we're selfish..

Even how we do socially distanced labs is being recorded and documented.

So rather than being selfish were at the forefront of opening up schools.

Post edited at 12:20
1
 Doug 23 Jan 2021
In reply to Roadrunner6:

so a wider age range than English prep schools which I think are for kids up to 12 or 13 years old & which seem to be 'feeder' schools for English public (ie private) schools which cater for 13 to 18 year olds.

Roadrunner6 23 Jan 2021
In reply to Doug:

Yeah here it's prep for college. Generally they are just high schools. We're one of the few Pre-K to 18 schools around. I think that's good and bad, we have very institutionalized kids, they only know our ways, but it's a big family atmosphere and we work together, so we try to correct issues in science in grades 1-3. 

 Neil Williams 23 Jan 2021
In reply to Ridge:

> Likewise air travel. Hanging round an airport for a couple of hours for the privilege of a few hours breathing in other people's BO and respiratory diseases? Nah, I won't miss that.

Unless you turned left when you went in, air travel isn't and never really was a pleasant experience - it's about where you're going on the plane (it being the quickest way to get there), not the plane ride itself, unless you're a plane enthusiast.  And I certainly miss travel, but it'll still be there in a few years' time.  It wouldn't after all just be a pandemic that might prevent me travelling for a few years, something like losing my job could do that too.

OK, you can go on the train instead, but that's hardly much better for respiratory diseases as it's the same principle of a load of people in a metal tube at once (albeit minus turning up 2 hours beforehand to be pushed to spend in expensive shops).  The last cold I had, back in early March, I definitely got from a 4 hour train journey with someone snivelling away on the other side of the table.  (Who'd have known it, measures against SARS-CoV-2 stop other coronaviruses too? )

I guess that leaves the car ferry, but that means your scope is much limited unless you want to do a holiday that is 2 weeks actually on the road.

Post edited at 12:55
 Neil Williams 23 Jan 2021
In reply to Roadrunner6:

Personally I call them state schools or private schools.  I don't use the term public schools as it's ambiguous due to the different UK and US meaning.  I know a UK Academy* isn't state-run, but it's state-funded, so that's good enough.

But I think you're right - smaller classes, dividers and masks.  The mind boggles as to why the planning for this wasn't started back in March.

* The last time the Tories did something similar they were referred to as "grant maintained", which I guess doesn't sound quite as good as "academy" but is a broadly similar concept.

In reply to Kalna_kaza:

> >  to what are known as public schools in the UK.

They are called that in England.

In Scotland they are called private schools.  Because they are.

4
Roadrunner6 23 Jan 2021
In reply to Neil Williams:

I think because of money, class sizes and a lack of teachers and they thought it would go away.

Hybrid models work ok, divide the class in two, 2 days in, 2 days out.one day all remote. It's hard because we have to stay home with symptoms etc, we have an app to fill out daily, so most days I'd say 10% of our staff can't come in. So even as a private school it's stretching us.

Being selfish I'm teaching every block this term. We normally teach two 90 minute blocks have one off to prep, then a study hall. A teacher is off long term, and we can't just bring subs in this year, so I'm teaching 3 blocks in a row and then the last study hall block I coach the swim team for 2 hours so we use outside coaches less.  Again that selfishness kicks in..

So I'm with kids every minute of the day once I step in at 8 am so all prep and grading is done in the evenings and weekends.

So We're managing but we have a much smaller student to staff ratio than most state schools. They gave us all a $1000 bonus because they knew we'd be asked to do more which was nice but nowhere near covers the extra time.

Post edited at 13:07
 RobAJones 23 Jan 2021
In reply to Roadrunner6:

> With small class sizes, always masked we can and have done it.

Where as here we have some local primary schools with 80% attendance, so probably 24 rather than 30 kids in a room (possibly 29 rather than 35). Don't know about the US but covid has highlighted differences in education that have always there, but previously people seemed less aware/bothered. In England day pupil fees are on average x3 what a state school gets per pupil, staff are paid roughly the same. We could/should have looked a ways of making classes smaller last term, but in the state sector that would have meant rotas and part time timetables. In the private sector it would have probably meant just cutting back on some of their extracurricular activities.     

Roadrunner6 23 Jan 2021
In reply to RobAJones:

Yeah it really comes down to class sizes. Without getting them down it's hard to see how it can work.

Here school districts are very localized so big variations in funding so some can cope. Those school districts normally have smaller classes.

But it really has highlighted how stretched public education is. 

Back in March we re did our ventilation system and knocked down a load of walls and redesigned our classrooms. We had lots of small classrooms which weren't suitable so they went and we teach in any larger space like gyms and cafeteria.

Again though, as a private school we can retool quickly. We can release funding to change the building within a few hours. The public schools in the city are still trying to improve their ventilation systems 10 months later and with old buildings its just much harder. Many of our schools were built decades ago, some almost a century ago (weren't many in the UK built for the baby boomers), so it's hard to change these buildings. As we can move walls around in a few weeks.

Apart from our teachers who teach the AP courses or the subjects covered by the SAT's we have no set curriculum so could slow down as we saw fit. The school are very hands off in terms of what we teach. 

Post edited at 13:38
 colinakmc 23 Jan 2021
In reply to Alyson30:

> I agree. For sure we will see a lot more WFH - just from the fact that many more people are enabled to do it - but even that I think is overestimated, this isn’t going to be the end of the office.

I’m retired but my stepson works for a firm of actuaries in London who have been actively planning for permanent semi home working - he is expecting to spend a day or two a week in the office (really to maintain a tight team) and the rest from home.

it’s making him think differently about house/flat purchase as he’ll tolerate a longer journey to work if it’s only a couple of times a week. I have the impression that’s looking like a widespread trend. It also has a big impact on the support industries - lots of cafes etc who only open lunchtimes in the city won’t have a customer base any more.

Roadrunner6 23 Jan 2021
In reply to colinakmc:

Yeah this will be interesting. We own and rent out our old house in NH about 2 hrs from Boston. House prices in the area have shot up. It's 3 bedrooms, 2 car garage, half an acre set in the woods, you can't see your neighbour, and we got it for 150k, in Boston it'll be easily over a half a million dollars, if not pushing a million in some neighborhoods. You can even just get a hotel for 1-2 nights a week for the money being saved.

 Neil Williams 23 Jan 2021
In reply to colinakmc:

> it’s making him think differently about house/flat purchase as he’ll tolerate a longer journey to work if it’s only a couple of times a week. I have the impression that’s looking like a widespread trend. It also has a big impact on the support industries - lots of cafes etc who only open lunchtimes in the city won’t have a customer base any more.

I think that'll vary.  People going in 2 days a week are probably more likely to go out for a sit-down lunch with colleagues than people going in 5 days a week, I'd think, and potentially spend more as on the other 3 days they can have the proverbial beans on toast.  I reckon it's Boots meal deals and the likes that will be hit harder.

I can also see more potential business for local sit-down cafes in residential areas for lunch, and also local butchers/bakers/greengrocers as it'll be easy to pop out and visit them rather than having to go to Tesco at 8pm as that's the only time you can fit it in.

I think we'll also see house prices rocketing in the outer Home Counties (places like MK and Northampton) and reducing nearer London, as people move out a bit but not too far.

Post edited at 14:10
 Robert Durran 23 Jan 2021
In reply to Neil Williams:

> Unless you turned left when you went in, air travel isn't and never really was a pleasant experience - it's about where you're going on the plane (it being the quickest way to get there), not the plane ride itself, unless you're a plane enthusiast. 

But looking out the window never, ever gets dull! Vast swathes of the earth's surface from above! Flying to the west coast of the US over the arctic and then seeing a cross-section of North America gradually changing from tundra to desert is truly thrilling. I am tall but regularly pay extra to guarantee a window seat despite the discomfort. Planes are miraculous machines and I absolutely love flying. 

 Ridge 23 Jan 2021
In reply to Neil Williams:

> I think that'll vary.  People going in 2 days a week are probably more likely to go out for a sit-down lunch with colleagues than people going in 5 days a week, I'd think, and potentially spend more as on the other 3 days they can have the proverbial beans on toast. 

I think that's very true. On the few occasions I've been into our town centre offices since last March we've usually got some bacon butties in or had a posh sandwich as a bit of a treat.

Conversely when they shifted several hundred people into those same town  centre offices, with limited free parking and car parking charges everywhere else, the huge spending bonanza the council and traders were expecting never happened. Everyone resented the move and spent what they would have spent in the shops at lunchtime on parking.

Roadrunner6 23 Jan 2021
In reply to Neil Williams:

Did you see Quantas were doing flights to nowhere which sold out. Take off fly around for a few hours and land. I can't think of anything worse and I don't mind air travel but its a means to an end.

https://www.cnn.com/travel/article/flights-to-nowhere-qantas/index.html

 Neil Williams 23 Jan 2021
In reply to Robert Durran:

> But looking out the window never, ever gets dull! Vast swathes of the earth's surface from above! Flying to the west coast of the US over the arctic and then seeing a cross-section of North America gradually changing from tundra to desert is truly thrilling. I am tall but regularly pay extra to guarantee a window seat despite the discomfort. Planes are miraculous machines and I absolutely love flying.

To be fair I do enjoy window gazing (exit row window tends to be my choice) but only short-haul.  Long haul is just tedious, though innovations like the higher cabin pressure and humidity in the B787 at least mean you don't feel like death when you get off.  And you can still look out with the LCD "shades" "down"!  While Boeing made a complete idiot of themselves (understatement) with the 737 Max, the 787 really is an excellent aircraft.  I hope they give up on the 60 year old 737 platform and do a new narrowbody based on it.

Post edited at 14:36
 Neil Williams 23 Jan 2021
In reply to Roadrunner6:

> Did you see Quantas were doing flights to nowhere which sold out. Take off fly around for a few hours and land. I can't think of anything worse and I don't mind air travel but its a means to an end.

Sleasyjet used to offer something similar as a "fear of flying" course from Luton, FWIW.

 Robert Durran 23 Jan 2021
In reply to Neil Williams:

> To be fair I do enjoy window gazing (exit row window tends to be my choice) but only short-haul.  Long haul is just tedious, though innovations like the higher cabin pressure and humidity in the B787 at least mean you don't feel like death when you get off.  And you can still look out with the LCD "shades" "down"!

But long haul tends to take you over more exotic and exciting landscapes. Long haul does give you more legroom too.

I really don't like the 787 with its dimming windows, because the cabin crew can override the dimming. On flights when they come round and close the conventional windows, I just open them again if I want to look out (and if anyone complains I just ignore them). Flying to Johannesburg two years ago I was absolutely gutted when the windows were dimmed as we flew over The Congo rainforest at dawn and on south to the Kalahari with windows darkened when I had paid extra for a window seat. I would actively try to avoid 787's.

Alyson30 23 Jan 2021
In reply to colinakmc:

> I’m retired but my stepson works for a firm of actuaries in London who have been actively planning for permanent semi home working - he is expecting to spend a day or two a week in the office (really to maintain a tight team) and the rest from home.

i observe the same everywhere but the key here, this isn’t the end of the office. It will just serve a different purpose.

 Misha 24 Jan 2021
In reply to MG:

Not convinced about a major long term impact on social interaction - people will stil want to meet with friends and go on dates. We will see more zoom calls rather than travel for both business and leisure but we are social animals, so I think in person meet ups will continue.

What Covid has done is accelerated existing trends, particularly towards online shopping and WFH. Those changes will stick to a large extent, given things were going that way anyway.

I’m assuming here that with mass vaccination Covid will be reduced to something no worse than the seasonal flu - worse in winter but entailing a level of deaths and hospital pressure which society is prepared to live with, for want of a better term. That is, if vaccines are indeed 95% effective and pretty much prevent serious infection.

I suspect we’ll see more voluntary SD and face mask wearing, even once the actual rules are relaxed (perhaps in spring next year?). That would be a good thing. Hopefully it would no longer be socially acceptable for people to come in to work ill, especially if they can WFH. 

1
 Misha 24 Jan 2021
In reply to Alyson30:

> Many places will close but new ones will open - they just might not be the same pubs or the same squash clubs - but as long as there is demand for it these things will just come back, and probably quicker than you think.

Agree. Demand and financing but fortunately we don’t have a financial crisis on our hands so financing should be available. Could even be the same people starting over again. Of course it’s not always like that and I don’t wish any business to go under. However some of those which do go under will come back in a different form. The real issue is those which won’t come back at all. 

 Misha 24 Jan 2021
In reply to girlymonkey:

> I think the reticence about groups and crowds won't last long. A month or two of steady, low, infections and people will resume their old habits. The indoor spaces will reopen or new ones will open as a result of the demand. 

Exactly. Just look at what happened in July and August. 

 Misha 24 Jan 2021
In reply to mattmurphy:

> People will continue to live in cities, they will still commute into the office.

Cities, yes. Office, sort of. Progressive employers will let people WFH as long as it doesn’t have a negative impact on productivity. That means most office based staff working for such employers will only come in perhaps 3 times a week on average. For example very few people (possibly no one) will do 5 days a week at my place. I live a 10 minute walk away from the office and I wouldn’t do 5 days a week.

Some employers will continue to insist on 5 days a week - until they realise that they’re losing staff because of it.

So yes, this will change.

 Misha 24 Jan 2021
In reply to Neil Williams:

The scenario of vaccine evading Covid does not bear thinking about. The only way would be to go for zero Covid but it would require unprecedented international cooperation so that won’t happen (it maybe possible for individual countries, especially islands, so we’re lucky there). Eternal lockdown is not feasible financially or socially so anything other than zero Covid would basically be ‘f*ck the vulnerable and good luck if you break a leg’.

 Neil Williams 24 Jan 2021
In reply to Misha:

The main reason being that a totally vaccine-evading COVID would also evade natural immunity, so you wouldn't be able to fight it off (a la HIV) and you would also get repeated reinfections if you did.


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