UKC

https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/opendemocracyuk/i-was-strong-brexiteer-now...

Good for him, of course, but reading this, isn’t what strikes you the most - good God, man, how could any of this *possibly* not have been obvious to you from the beginning?

jcm

I heard him interviewed this morning.  Like you I was pleased with his decision, but pretty staggered by his admission that he had simply not understood how complicated it all was.

The hardest part is admitting you were wrong.

Considering that he writes this about Theresa May:

"She’s shown immense fortitude and determination which has won her the respect and admiration of decent people."

I'd say that he is still more than capable of quite staggering amounts of self-delusion.

(He also regurgitates the myth that she was "powerless" to do anything about immigration when she was Home Secretary.  Incompetence ≠ powerlessness.)

A friend of mine had a similar recent Damascene moment going from dedicated brexit supporter to persuasive opponent of a No Deal brexit. I think the key things to remember are;

1) If you want people to have the space to change their mind, it's important to resist the huge urge to say 'I told you so'

2) A lot of brexit supporters did want a soft brexit and were (and are) opposed to the no deal foolishness. Even after the referendum, only 1/3 of leave voters thought we would leave the single market.

https://www.comresglobal.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/BBC-News_Tables_Bre...

It's astonishing really but I suppose it really is true, we do live in little bubbles. His popped and he's had the notable courage to admit as much very publicly. Embarrassing no doubt but a smart move acknowledging it and getting ahead of the crowd.

jk

You might think it John, but don't say it (or worse, write it). No one likes a smart arse, we should simply support his decision to come out and say a lot of painful stuff, and given the febrile atmosphere around brexit, probably at some personal risk to himself.

"but where is the ringing declaration of love for the European Union? We have seen the passionate beliefs of the Brexiteers. Where’s your own positivity? Where your matching passion for Remain?

I have none. Only a deep, gnawing worry that we are making a significant mistake: a worry that is growing by the hour"

This was pretty much my position before the vote, and why I voted Remain

I can't help thinking that your comment is bolstered by a bit of retrospective wisdom.... the superficial ally of the sanctimonious.

I'd say his position is reflective of the country in 2016. Where in effect only two thirds voted. A third couldn't care less one way or the other, and where the campaign from the remain camp was lacklustre and complacent and the campaign for leave was sensationalist rubbish.

The rest has just been a dreadful display of political opportunism. Where nobody has grabbed the opportunity

If you can't remember that the problems he raises weren't pointed out from the start I can't help thinking your comment was prompted by the late hour/alcohol befuddlement.

I'd say his position is reflective of him noticing brexit has gone tits up and getting his excuses in early.

What opportunity? And who do you think should have grabbed it?

jcm>> Good for him, of course, but reading this, isn’t what strikes you the most - good God, man, how could any of this *possibly* not have been obvious to you from the beginning?

Oborne is no idiot, but he is a professional political commentator, and to me it's incredible that he can now write the following:

  "I can’t help noticing that those most vocal in advocating Brexit are two opposing camps. On the one hand traders in financial assets – in particular hedge-fund managers – relish the speculative opportunities created by Brexit volatility. The city state of Singapore is held up as one economic model. The United States is another. I cannot see that there is any popular desire for us to follow the business and employment cultures of such countries.

  "On the other side we have the far Left, which wants out of the European Union for the exact opposite reason. The Left sees the EU as a capitalist conspiracy because of the protections it offers for private property and the restraints against centralised economic power, in particular state aid. A very substantial faction around Jeremy Corbyn, including former members of the Communist Party, is looking forward to British departure from the EU because they rightly see that the EU prevents the imposition of socialism.

  "When hedge-fund managers and the Communist Party see eye-to-eye on any question, it’s time to be concerned."

The fact that attitudes to the EU do not split across conventional party lines but, rather, unite the two ends of the political spectrum, is one of the most obvious known facts about all of this, and it makes Brexit a very unusual political issue. Has he really only just noticed this?

You're better at acting daft than acting clever Num Num.

I've heard it said that you can tell when a successful compromise has been achieved because nobody is happy with the outcome. Maybe the EU was already that compromise and the reason we can't decide on an alternative is because people are realising that the other options are worse.

Interesting post about hedge funds and so called "Far left". I must correct you as it was only one current new member of Labour who was previously in the Communist Party of Britain and that was Andrew Murray. 

People in Norway and other Scandinavian countries I have read are bewildered that a run-of-the-mill social democrat like Corbyn is called "Far left", when he clearly isn't but is in the UK because British politics at the present time is so far to the right that the so called "left", are actually like the old (60s onwards) Tory party. 

Hang on - I was quoting Oborne there. Correct him!

Oh sorry. 

The only reason why I voted remain in the referendum was owing to a vague feeling of ‘better the devil you know’ 

Brexit experts are legion two years after the event. Where were they when it mattered?

Complacently expecting the public to return a vote to remain.

That was the fundamental opportunity missed. 

Folk have a right to change their mind either way, but why would the current situation have been obvious to anybody from the start? 

It wouldn’t, is the short answer. But a change of heart is a great opportunity for a comfortable ‘I told you so’

Patronising benefit of hindsight isn’t something I get involved in. There’s nothing to be proud about of in any camp, remain or leave.

We didn't need no stinking experts, remember...? People didn't want to listen to anyone pointing out the potential problems of Brexit; that was 'Project Fear'.

Whilst I never considered the EU to be perfect, it seemed obvious from the outset that a soft Brexit made no sense; continuing to trade with the EU would mean complying with all EU regs, but having no influence on their formulation (losing, not taking back control). We'd end up with something like the Norway situation, and the Norwegian Foreign Minister repeatedly made it clear that wasn't a great position to be in. It was obvious to anyone who thought about it for longer than it took to listen to soundbites and read news headlines that unravelling 40 years of integration and legislation would not be as trivial a task as was made out. Then there was the problem of negotiating trade deals as a single country, rather than a large trading bloc, knowing how long other international trading agreements have taken to negotiate; they were never going to be 'the easiest deals in history'.

I'm pretty sure that all these arguments were made on threads on UKC.

The other problem is that of complacency; Cameron never expected Leave to be taken seriously, not realising the vote would be, for many people, a vote against his (and previous) government by people who felt they had been overlooked for years.

Has birdie num num been taken over ?

They were, repeatedly.

There were "experts" all over the media, it was debated and discussed ad infinitum. That you're now pretending it didn't happen is silly.

It was a very poor campaign for remain. But you said "The rest has just been a dreadful display of political opportunism. Where nobody has grabbed the opportunity", so i still don't understand what opportunity you wanted grabbed, do you mean before the referendum or after?

I don't think anyone is claiming they'd predicted this precise outcome. But people predicted it would be very difficult, that we didn't hold all the cards and most of the issues Oborne has belatedly recognised.

It was obvious. Your memory is terrible.

It's not hindsight if the problems have been pointed out all along. 

Being shouted down as lily livered pussies falling for project fear by all the same people on here now saying they knew it'd be hard and costly and risky. Back then it was all swashbuckling, money for the NHS and steel mills, attracting investment and lucrative deals with 'Asia'. Memories are short but it's all preserved in black and white for anyone inclined to go back and look.

It's the result of the collision of three factors: overestimating our strength and importance, inflexibly prioritising the loss of freedom of movement and the maintenance of the pretence that we can have the benefits of the customs union while being free of its responsibilities. Those were apparent before June 2016 and glaringly obvious by the time the PM threw her majority away.

This didn't have to go as badly as it has (though I wouldn't have bet against it) but it was never going to go well, brexit doesn't and can't deliver what the electorate were sold, that at some point was always going to fell any government lumbered with its delivery.

It isn't hindsight, we were warned. Some of us were listening.

jk

I think what you are saying is true for 90+% of the electorate, but not necessarily for the people on this thread. The real difficulties with Brexit become more apparent the deeper you go into the detail; rules of origin, free trade agreements with third party countries etc. This level of detail got almost no attention at the time, or since, it is assumed that the British electorate aren't interested, probably with some justification.

The Leave campaign was based on broad brush emotional triggers, and Remain tried to counter that with apocalyptic nightmares. No one was dealing in dull dry facts.

And the vast majority of business figures tried to keep a low profile. Big companies knew the risks of Brexit, but didn't want to lose customers by being too tied to one side. In the aftermath, you can sort of see why, as Brexiters try to boycott every car company this side of Detroit.

It's also fair to say that no-one really knew how the negotiations would play out, but lots of us were fully aware that if we voted leave, we would be sending our government into negotiations with very few cards to play.

It is preserved, and you’re talking crap.  The general conclusion by leavers prior to the vote was it’s a short term cost but it’s worth it.

Where we are is the result of a couple of choices.  May chose to pursue a deal that a big chunk of her party and the DUP repeatedly said that they would not sign up to.  She chose to continue with it anyway and successfully concluded it - we got a deal.  Problem was she never had majority backing so it was never going to pass.  At the same time remainer MPs chose to block good planning for what happened when - inevitably - her deal didn’t pass.  That’s why we are where we are.

Oborne should listen to his own advice - now is a bad time for making big decisions like the one he’s making.  Back in 2016 was the right time.

I remember many a conversation with folk on here claiming all sort so ridiculous economic benefits well into 2017, long after it was abundantly clear leave voters had had their pants pulled down. All but one have drifted away or changed tunes since to 'sovereignty!' and now that's shown to be a sack of shite with our PM fighting to deny our sovereign parliament a say at every turn and now sat in Brussels waiting to be told what to do so onto 'the will of the people' which has clearly and inconveniently shifted against you. So what next I wonder? Warlike cries of we're under attack as Brussels imposes terms? Sweaty ERG weapon in chief Francois is well ahead of you.

The only one she was ever going to get from the EU by insisting on no free movement and no customs union, pandering to the unrealistic demands of a Leave campaign which stoked xenophobia and promised the moon on a stick. Here by blaming May for pursing a poor deal rather than the one you voted for you're exhibiting the third problem: grandiosity, an over inflated sense of national importance and power.

We've squandered billions planning for this home made catastrophe.

It is *always* someone else's fault isn't it Thomas. Own your mess!

We can't turn back the clock, we can still choose our future.

jk

Your imagination is overflowing with “memories”.  Blame is something you are obsessed with, not me.

Funny that in your assertions you ignore the 44:42 leave no deal:remain poll.  Doesn’t conveniently fit your narrative I suppose.

You're talking crap Thomas, again. Big difference between politically engaged ideological leavers who knew there would be a cost, and many leave voters who did actually believe we would be better off and there would be more money for the NHS. Without a shadow of a doubt the latter swung it for leave.

The polls do not back you up.

I'm not ignoring it I said yesterday 'no-deal' is surging in the polls on the back of a huge advertising campaign. Truly committed quitters should be banging the drum for a referendum by now, using the influence they have left to force a three way choice so they're not squeezed out by May/Remain. It's the only way you get a really hard brexit that lasts, sure we might screw up and leave with no deal on Friday, indeed it's quite likely but in the chaos that follows we'll be back begging the EU for May's WA within a month. Get explicit support for a very hard brexit and the £100s Bn we need to borrow to mitigate the worst effects so as to maintain an economy and a degree of social cohesion then you have a solid chance of making it stick. For whatever that's worth! At the moment it looks like a hard-brexit campaign as dirty as the last leave one would romp home with another significant win and there is nothing to stop more dirty money flooding in to further your agenda.

jk

So when you said “The will of the people has clearly shifted against you” what you meant was the opposite!?

Are you for or against a second referendum?

I'm a "remainer", I'm "for" another vote as I believe we, the electorate, are more informed of how the whole process will pan out and whatever the outcome, it will give the government a stronger mandate on pushing through a way froward, whatever that may be.

However, also as a "remainer", I think doing the right thing, having a second vote, would probably lead to a no-deal scenario.

No, I mean for the past year there has very clearly been a few points in it to 'remain', the 'will of the people' is now clearly and inconveniently against brexit. However, we both know another unconstrained dirty campaign promising the earth with no accountability when it comes to delivery can turn that around as it did in 2016. What is becoming clear as 'no-deal' becomes the clear front-running leave option with the public is that brexit voters have been successfully radicalised/weaponised to fight against their own and the national interest by pursuing chaos for its own sake. Of course it isn't for its own sake, someone always benefits but it is still chaos most of us will suffer.

A referendum is not a foregone conclusion for remain and it is your only remaining route to a permanent clean break with Europe. If we don't crash out on the 12th just watch this dawn on the quitter MPs over the next couple of months.

jk

I can't find that opinion poll anywhere. Even the Torygraph yesterday was quoting a ComRes poll showing 40:38 Remain: Leave no deal. 

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/04/08/exclusive-britons-split-mid...

https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/04/04/what-do-pu...

Half way down.

The way I read it is we're very uncomfortable about revoking article 50 without a public vote. Also the binary way the question is posed leaves a lot of moderate leavers with radical choices, most I suspect stick with the 'brexiter' identity they've been sold rather than become a 'traitor' like all those they've been shown these last few years. They're currently busy calling the queen a traitor! This has clearly worked and it's why I expect we'll see murmurings of support for a public vote from the hardliners.

jk

Ah, so you were ignoring that poll as it wasn’t convenient to your narrative.  The polls are inconclusive, still.  Your assertion that the public are with you is just an assertion, and I seem to recall you thought 12m would sign that petition...

Against.  The only reason for one that I can see is for the noisy minority of ardent remainers to get a second go at getting the result they want, and that is not a good reason.

Is leaving with no withdrawal agreement what you want now?

What polls? What poll suggests all leavers voters (ok >80%, I'm going soft)  voted for the same reason and they understood there would be short term pain?*

Sovereignty, immigration, and saving the UK money myth were the tope three and none got over 50%

https://ukandeu.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/CSI-Brexit-4-People%E2%80%...

All 3 were main reason for enough people that each would have been decisive.

Dominic cumming based the repetition of 350m for NHS/Turkey on there own polling. 

* Obviously there will be long term pain, but we're talking about who believes your guff.

Ignoring it, I just provided the link to Gordon, I did the same yesterday for David. Hard to think of a worse way to ignore something than to look it up for someone, signpost them to it then discuss what I think it means!

They really aren't inconclusive https://pollofpolls.eu/GB/23/post-brexit-eu-membership-polls but there's not enough between leave and remain to be complacent, a campaign or a misstep by the EU could flip those numbers easily.

Yes and I still think the revoke poll will hit double digits by the time we leave if it's still open by then, I think it will get a new lease of life as reality dawns. I could be wrong and frankly it doesn't matter, 10M is much the same as 6M, the government doesn't care either way, it's all about the ~70k who'll nominate the next leader, who fund raise, door knock and leaflet come election time. Like most I'm still assuming we don't crash out Friday, that there is a process still to be worked through to move us forward deliberately before we're out of better options.

jk

But...... You believe that people haven't changed there mind and that No deal will win.

So, if there is a second referendum, no deal or May's deal will win, giving the government and parliament the go ahead to crack on. You get what you wanted, Brexit, and it's the flavour of Brexit preferred by the electorate.

However, if remain "wins", then surely it's good to know that it's not just a noisy minority of remainers but a majority of the electorate (well, those who bother to vote) who want to stay and if that case we SHOULD revoke article 50.

There is jeopardy for either side in a second referendum but I struggle to see that case against it*.

*I understand but disagree with the betrayal narrative.

In which case you've had your fingers resolutely in your ears for a very long time, so nothing people will say here will get through either.

Nick Ferrari chucks in the towel now too. https://www.lbc.co.uk/radio/presenters/nick-ferrari/exasperated-reveals-hes... seems these people really were expecting quick easy fixes and that the prospect of losing even another year let alone more realistically a decade plus to brexit is taking its toll.

Next!

jk

Man finally realises that standing for 3 years with a gun to your foot has curtailed mobility.

And one of the things we predicted before the referendum was that the next many years government business would be dominated by Brexit-related issues. Which is what he has finally realised.

Meanwhile in the US the so called far right conservatives would be regarded as left leaning democrats and Corbyn would be viewed as a communist traitor.

Well you're half right there.

I'm a remainer  and yes if I'm honest I do want a second go for the result I want (from speaking to friends I don't think it is just a noisy minority though).

But there are other reasons. The main one for me is that there is a possibility that the majority would now vote for remain. Would it not be a democratic betrayal if this was not tested and the current minority effectively decided the future of the UK?

I would readily  accept a deal or no deal if that was the result of some type of leave, deal, remain vote with, say, a second preference option. Then over 50% of people support the result, the present impasse is hopefully overcome (presumably MPs would find it hard not to support). Probably less divisive in the long term.

Incidentally thanks for contributing to the thread and preventing it just being a case of people preaching to the converted.