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Place your (totally legit) UKC GE2024 bets

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 jkarran 03 Jul 2024

Time to read the runes and risk looking like a total muppet come Friday morning.

My bet: Labour win and big but not the utter annihilation the Conservatives deserve. A strong but non-revolutionary result for both LibDems and Reform. I think the greens might do a bit better than usual drawing votes from across the spectrum for a variety of reasons.

Lab: 435

Con: 90

LD: 65

Ref: 15

SNP: 10

Grn: 3

Ignoring NI, and my numbers don't quite add up.

jk

5
 stubbed 03 Jul 2024
In reply to jkarran:

I think you might have reflected the % of vote quite well here but I don't know if the seats will be like this. Reform getting 15 seats & Greens getting 3? I would be surprised.

1
OP jkarran 03 Jul 2024
In reply to stubbed:

> I think you might have reflected the % of vote quite well here but I don't know if the seats will be like this. Reform getting 15 seats & Greens getting 3? I would be surprised.

Surprised which way?

I suspect the thing I'm most likely to have got badly wrong is underappreciating how well clustered Reform's vote is but that weighs against the drip-drip of bad candidate stories which may well put off enough of the swing/protest voters Farage needs to really convert his ex UKIP base vote-share into seats.

You're probably right about the Greens.

jk

 bouldery bits 03 Jul 2024
In reply to jkarran:

Lab: 405

Con: 105

 LD: 75

Ref: 15

SNP: 12 

Grn: 5

This'll be wrong 

1
 Dr.S at work 03 Jul 2024
In reply to jkarran:

I doubt it will happen, but I’d love it if the Lib Dem’s pushed the Tories to third place. 
 

I think they would be a much better official opposition.

3
 deepsoup 03 Jul 2024
In reply to Dr.S at work:

> I doubt it will happen, but I’d love it if the Lib Dem’s pushed the Tories to third place. 

I'd love that too - and I think it would improve things significantly to have a relatively sane official opposition to a Labour government rather than whatever the Tories will mutate into after this.  (I fear the worst.)

I'm not going to guess at the numbers but I will place a small UKC bet that Sunak will be off back to California within a year, whether Tom Wilson manages to unseat him or not.

4
 Andy Hardy 03 Jul 2024
In reply to jkarran:

I think Reform Ltd will do depressingly well, and that they'll take more seats from Labour than Cons. I'd predict a healthy labour majority, but not bigger than the 97 landslide.

1
 Tyler 03 Jul 2024
In reply to jkarran:

Presumably the pollsters have got good at accounting for different voter turn out among the different demographics but I still think Labour’s vote share is being widely over stated. I think there is massive indifference towards Labour among less engaged voters (which is most people). 

 Abr 03 Jul 2024
In reply to Andy Hardy:

Agree with this…..

 stubbed 03 Jul 2024
In reply to Tyler:

I agree. I don't know who my husband is going to vote for, but I don't think he can bring himself to vote Labour, so will be happy enough to accept that I've not reminded him to vote on Thursday.

3
 Tony Buckley 03 Jul 2024
In reply to jkarran:

Despite everything, I don't expect a Tory annihilation.  I'm guessing they'll retain about 150 seats and form the official opposition.

For many months past the vibes from that party have been that anything that reaches three figures will be trumpeted by them as evidence that they can call a relative, and rather flatulent, success in the circumstances.  It won't be, but they have strong recent form on ignoring elephants.

There's another point about the election that I'm interested in, which is complete schadenfreude.  I'll see if I can post about that on another thread.

T.

OP jkarran 03 Jul 2024

I was rather hoping more people would join in with actual numbers so we could all be wrong yet still declare someone a winner on Friday.

jk

OP jkarran 03 Jul 2024
In reply to Andy Hardy:

> I think Reform Ltd will do depressingly well, and that they'll take more seats from Labour than Cons. I'd predict a healthy labour majority, but not bigger than the 97 landslide.

It's an interesting one this. The seats Reform win will I'd think mostly come from Labour but the better they do vote share wise, the more seats Labour and the LibDems will take from Conservatives elsewhere. Hard to work out really whether a strong Reform showing* would be nett better or worse for Labour in terms of overall seats than a weaker one. What it would do is change where those Labour seats come from, potentially if Reform do do well Labour is again left with a metropolitan liberal bias in terms of seats represented (and a manifesto aimed at a different set of voters).

*I don't think it will be that strong, the toxic campaigning/candidate (bear shits in woods) scandals will I think weigh on some of the protest voters needed to really deliver a real revolutionary shock.

jk

1
 Bottom Clinger 03 Jul 2024
In reply to jkarran:

> Lab: 445

> Con: 87

> LD: 71

> Ref: 4

> SNP: 18

> Grn: 4

> Kane and Bellingham won’t be subbed and we loose on penalties

 deepsoup 03 Jul 2024
In reply to jkarran:

> I was rather hoping more people would join in with actual numbers

Oh go on then (I'm also not going to attempt to predict NI.)

Lab:            425
Con:            115
LD:                60
SNP:             20
Ref Ltd:          5
Plaid C.          4
Green.            4

 DizzyT 03 Jul 2024
In reply to jkarran:

I have a horrible suspicion the Tories will somehow do better than expected. I also think Reform will detract from the Labour vote in red wall-type seats. Tactical voting should help the Lib Dems pick up a few seats but coalition memories remain raw. In Scotland new leadership at the helm of the SNP should stave off a rout.

Labour 380, Conservative 150, Lib Dem 50, SNP 30, Alba 3, Plaid 3, Green 1, Reform 1, 

2
 bouldery bits 03 Jul 2024
In reply to Bottom Clinger:

Genius 

 Michael Hood 03 Jul 2024
In reply to jkarran:

Nobody has got the total number right yet - there are 650 seats, if you exclude NI then there are 632; bad show...

For the record, in NI I'm only going to predict that Shin Fein get at least 10 of the 18 seats.

Rest of UK & NI is a real guess...

  • Labour 417
  • Conservative 115
  • Lib Dem 67
  • SNP 17
  • Plaid Cymru 4
  • Reform 5
  • Green 3
  • Independent 4

Total = 632

Associated point - how are we going to decide who's closest? 😁

 bouldery bits 03 Jul 2024
In reply to Michael Hood:

You're closest because you can do basic additions.

:p

OP jkarran 03 Jul 2024
In reply to Michael Hood:

> Associated point - how are we going to decide who's closest? 😁

We should vote on it 😁

Jk

 ScraggyGoat 03 Jul 2024
In reply to DizzyT:

Gawd I hope the SNP don’t do that well, they need a good kicking to induce a fair degree of introspection (and a massive cull plus change in core philosophy) after which they might actually be a force for good as part of the opposition, which they potentially could be quiet adept at.

1
 JimR 03 Jul 2024
In reply to jkarran:

Lab 430

Con 86

Lib  86

Reform 7

others the balance 😀

I reckon Lib will do well because of tactical voting.. Tories better than polls cos those polled might be too embarrassed to admit to being Tory plonkers

In reply to jkarran:

Go on then. I'll get a prediction registered for tomorrow.

Green, 5.

Independent Left, 5.

Labour, 455.

Lib Dem, 75.

Conservative, 61.

SNP, 22.

Reform, 6.

Plaid Cymru, 4.

Turnout 58%.

 J72 04 Jul 2024
In reply to jkarran:

Lab:            433
Con:            123
LD:                53
SNP:             19
Ref Ltd:          2
Plaid C.          4
Green.            2m

not sure my maths is quite right - and like others excluding NI where have little knowledge of likelihood or different parties securing seats 

 Dr.S at work 04 Jul 2024
In reply to jkarran:

Fair does:

labour 470

libdem 70

tory 60

SNP 20

plaid 4

green 3

Reform 2

 Countbinface 1

1
 Michael Hood 04 Jul 2024
In reply to bouldery bits:

> You're closest because you can do basic additions.

Which is quite surprising because I have a maths degree (from rather a long time ago) and maths graduates are known to be rubbish at arithmetic.

 Dexter 04 Jul 2024
In reply to Michael Hood:

> For the record, in NI I'm only going to predict that Shin Fein get at least 10 of the 18 seats.

Shin Fein? Aren't they the political leg of the IRA?

 TobyA 04 Jul 2024
In reply to Dr.S at work:

> Reform 2

Yep, the Economist's model gives a median estimate for reform of 3 and the Better Together bloke on the News Agent Podcast last night said their MRP model reckoned 2 for reform. 

Some of my colleagues live in 30p Lee's constituency, who seems likely to be one of the two or three Reform MPs, and I guess as a result have a darker view of their fellow citizens than I try to maintain! If the good people of Ashfield manage to do better and kick him out I will readily come back and sing their praises!

1
 Lhod 04 Jul 2024
In reply to jkarran:

I reckon (and also hope) zero seats for Reform, despite a significant share of the national vote. 

3
 Abr 04 Jul 2024
In reply to jkarran:

Labour… 385

Con… 140

LD… 65

Reform… 12

Green… 2

SNP… 14

Plaid Cymru… 7

Independent… 2

 Toccata 04 Jul 2024
In reply to ScraggyGoat:

The problem is that for the Westminster parties, Scotland is but one region of the UK, where votes are quite hard to pick up. For all their faults, the focus of the SNP is Scotland (just they're not very good at it).

Post edited at 12:26
 Tom Guitarist 04 Jul 2024
In reply to jkarran:

Labour 415

Tory 135

LD 50

SNP 20

Reform 7

Plaid 3

Green 2

Unsure on NI politics. Are there 18 seats? If so, excluding them, then my predictions do add up, not through design!

​​​​​​

 kevin stephens 04 Jul 2024
In reply to jkarran:

A major weakness of the opinion polls is the large number of don’t knows (or won’t tell) and that the pollsters statistical analyses to distribute them that has been accurate in the past may be wildly off this time due to rise of Reform etc

 girlymonkey 04 Jul 2024
In reply to ScraggyGoat:

There's no other real option though. 

I don't have a green candidate. I won't vote for a party who isn't trying to move back towards EU (rejoining single market would be enough to start with). And I agree with more SNP policies than I do Libs. So while I agree they have many failings, they are my only option. 

I would have gone green if I had had the option. 

3
 Michael Hood 04 Jul 2024
In reply to Dexter:

> Shin Fein? Aren't they the political leg of the IRA?

Indeed they are. I always thought that a much better (than violence) republican tactic would have been to encourage catholic families (who would have been very largely republican) to have lots of kiddies so that the NI demographics eventually changed enough so that union with Eire became inevitable.

I think that's going to eventually happen anyway, just not as quickly as it might have with some encouragement.

3
 Dexter 04 Jul 2024
In reply to Michael Hood:

Yes. The armed struggle made no sense for an organisation like Shin Fein. Making strides towards democratic legitimacy should give them a much sounder footing on which to build the long-standing legacy they seek.

 Michael Hood 04 Jul 2024
In reply to Dexter:

You have to remember that when the "struggles" started, the violence that successfully led to Irish independence (*) was only 50 years earlier so still within living memory. That memory of "success" probably added to violent protest being a legitimate approach.

(*) no doubt it was only one factor of many but the British Empire was still strong and whereas now we see one country controlling another as morally wrong, back then the thing that led to independence was if the effort of ruling "your" country wasn't worth it for the "rewards" that rule provided.

 Skiddly1987 04 Jul 2024
In reply to Dexter:

> Yes. The armed struggle made no sense for an organisation like Shin Fein. Making strides towards democratic legitimacy should give them a much sounder footing on which to build the long-standing legacy they seek.

It’s no tibial matter though. They need to toe the line and avoid any knee-jerk reactions. Time will tell if they’re able to nail it. 

 Lankyman 04 Jul 2024
In reply to Dexter:

> Yes. The armed struggle made no sense for an organisation like Shin Fein. Making strides towards democratic legitimacy should give them a much sounder footing on which to build the long-standing legacy they seek.

Weren't Shin Feinn proposing a joint sovereignty for NI at one point?

 TobyA 04 Jul 2024
In reply to Dexter:

> Making strides towards democratic legitimacy should give them a much sounder footing on which to build the long-standing legacy they seek.

A leg up so to speak?

Can we just put Michael out of his (probable lower limb) misery and spell it out: Sinn Féin. Beyond the spelling, all the points are perfectly reasonable, even if the jokes has... ummm... grown legs.

 Skiddly1987 04 Jul 2024
In reply to Lankyman:

> Weren't Shin Feinn proposing a joint sovereignty for NI at one point?

I was under the impression they wanted to calve it up. But were hamstrung by some of the more hip voters

In reply to jkarran:

I'm betting the election date is today...

In reply to Skiddly1987:

Calving up your Shin Vein is not a good idea.

 Dave Garnett 04 Jul 2024
In reply to Dexter:

> Shin Fein? Aren't they the political leg of the IRA?

Sinn Féin has been a pretty respectable political party for decades and the IRA ceasefire was 30 years ago.  They are also the majority party in NI Assembly.

 Bottom Clinger 04 Jul 2024
In reply to John Stainforth:

> Calving up your Shin Vein is not a good idea.

Better to fake such injuries and be a member of Shin Feign. 

 Bottom Clinger 04 Jul 2024
In reply to Bottom Clinger:

My neighbour has a silhouette of Bruce Forsyth on his roof that moves around to show the wind direction. It’s a Chin Vane. 
It’s going to be a looong night….

 Michael Hood 04 Jul 2024
In reply to TobyA:

Thank you, I knew it didn't feel right but my very rushed search on t'web didn't give the right answer either.

 Bottom Clinger 05 Jul 2024
In reply to jkarran:

I got three correct! Anyone beat that? And if not, what do I win?  

OP jkarran 05 Jul 2024
In reply to jkarran:

I'll run it all through a spreadsheet on Tuesday to pick out the winners and losers unless someone beats me too it.

Better than the exit poll which was pretty good. An excellent result for the Greens and the one Farage needed to play kingmaker in the future. Let's hope Labour can do something with their opportunity.

Jk

 bouldery bits 06 Jul 2024
In reply to jkarran:

I've already declared myself the winner anyhow. 

 deepsoup 06 Jul 2024
In reply to bouldery bits:

> I've already declared myself the winner anyhow. 

Good idea.  The official result is taking ages so claim victory, stick to your guns and take it all the way to the supreme court if necessary.  Worked a treat for George W Bush.

OP jkarran 10:03 Tue
In reply to jkarran:

Apologies for the delay, I've been away from my computer.

Firstly we have a clear overall winner and a close race for second split only by errors/bet.

  • 1st: Michael Hood (total error 28, 3.5/bet)
  • 2nd: deepsoup (49, 7)
  • 3rd: Bouldery Bits (49, 8.2)

Consolation prizes, closest per party:

  • Labour: Tom Guitarist (error 4)
  • Conservative: J72 (error 2)
  • LibDem: Bottom Clinger (error 1)
  • Reform: Michael Hood & deepsoup (error 0)
  • Green: Bottom Clinger & deepsoup (error 0)
  • Independents: Cumbria Mammoth (error 1)
  • SNP: jkarran (error 1)
  • Plaid Cymru: deepsoup, Michael Hood, Cumbria Mammoth, J72 & Dr.S at work (error 0)

Thanks for playing along.

jk


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