UKC

At my local hospital there is a palpable feeling of anxiety among doctors and nurses over what is about to unfold during the next couple of weeks. To the casual observer, you would not notice any of this from their professional calmness and demeanor.

Having to go shopping, after a run of several 12/14 hour shifts with no time to go shopping in between because you are fekin exhausted, to find empty shelves is soul destroying.

https://uk.news.yahoo.com/coronavirus-critical-care-nurse-tears-100646995.h...

I know that people on here are sensible and responsible, so please try to calmly and politely re-educate folk around you that may be exhibiting hoarding traits.

This is not a "Look at Me" OP as that is not my intention, I just want to keep my little head down. I'm lucky that I have my health, I have a job, and I have a roof over my head. And just like everybody else I have frail family both in the UK and abroad.

We'll gloss over my shed full of bog-roll, thought.

Oh my dear Lemming your assuming that these people (panic buyers) have the capacity to be educated.

Fatal mistake.

The problem is, with their current half hearted policy the need for reserves will become a self fulfilling prophecy. 

The longer the UK waits before a more meaningful lockdown, the greater volume of cases there will be, the more pressure there will be on delivery chains etc. So folk will need that buffer. Plus imports of fresh stuff from countries like Spain could easily decline.

The saviour might be spring, buy your seeds now and get planting at home!

I have been hearing a lot of stories from people I know that their relative in law’s partner’s gardener is married to a copper who says lockdown is coming today / tomorrow.

They really ratcheted up in intensity two days ago, corresponding to a run on all our local shops. I don’t know who is starting all this misinformation and speculation and spreading it through social networks – online and off-line – but I think it’s driving a lot of it.

If someone tells you anything like this push them on the accuracy of it, don’t just take it at face value.

Also if we have lockdown we're not all going to be starved out; that’s not happening elsewhere either...

Perhaps we need some performance artists in body stockings with prosthetics to simulate a spillage to rush around looking loudly for toilet rolls and then dropping their trousers/skirts in desperation at the till area to simulate emergency defaecation.

No doubt it would be filmed by the toilet roll juggernaut trolley drivers and "go viral"

Unfortunately, this isn't just down to 'panic buying'. It's a natural consequence of people following advice to socially isolate. People need food, and so, in order to avoid going to the supermarket regularly, they are buying more than they normally would. Not all are panic buying, just buying more than they would if shopping regularly. This sudden peak in shopping has cause a gap in the JIT supply chain. What is likely to follow is a glut, as the system reacts by overcompensating.

It's a classic ringing response to a step change in a control loop.

And suddenly a lot more food if they are cooking for the children at lunches five days a week as well as providing their daytime snacks.

It's almost as if someone, say a leader of a country, might have known this. Explained to everyone early on, what was going to happen, and how they should react...

Indeed. I'm having to feed myself at home, rather than relying on the restaurant at work.

Given the software it should be easy enought to have a sort of buy two pay for three, buy 3 pay for 5  buy 4 pay for 7, and find a deserving charity / local business to give the extra income to, to avoid cynicism. Cancel bogof and similar offers.

Its because people are starting to see the results of exponential growth all over the place, and the government's stance has changed. Before it was 'ah, that's China, not interested', then it's 'ah, that's Italy, it'll blow over' now it's 'oh sht, it's everywhere including here'.  There was a marked change in behaviour here when the first case was confirmed, then another when Jersey went fro m2 to 10 cases in about a day or two. I predict another jump when the next cases are confirmed here.  There's not much misinformation or speculation to be had - it's obvious to anyone looking at the stats and control measures in place here and elsewhwere that things are going to get a to worse (see my 'are we doing enough' thread.

Insane quantities of bog roll aside, stocking up for up to a month or so isn't really panic buying when it's a near-certainty that your family of however many will be confined to your home for a couple of weeks sometime soon, might be part of a wider lockdown for a month or longer, and has the very real risk of having one or both parents seriously ill for a period of time. It's just making sure you have what you'll probably need to look after your family (and yourself).

It seems odd to me to not have a bit of a stash just now, what are you expecting to happen next as covid-19 cases increase to up to 10 times as many per week, sunlight and unicorns and free pizza for all?

I can't imagine healthy people will be starving, but getting food for a family may be a fairly major undertaking, sometime soon, for a length of time. And I fear that there may be quite a few mentally ill, mobility-impaired, demented, and otherwise vulnerable people, who live alone, who may actually be starving.

That said, I imagine the stocking up will calm down a bit now - most, or at least a lot of, people must have an adequate stock now, surely?

Good news for single people, more than a bit crap if you're feeding a household. Or do we all have to go on each shopping trip, and each take our own trollies?

Speculation that lockdown may happen is one thing, the various stories I have heard about coppers preparing for lockdown today or Sainsbury’s managers etc instructed to prepare for a lockdown today appear to be misinformation.  They directly contravene government information given yesterday and, so far, do not match what has been said today.

I’m disappointed that my previous post on this is collecting dislikes, I am trying to understand the link between the rumours I have heard flying and sudden increase in panic buying. It is clear to me and has been for quite a long time that this is going to get much worse before it gets better, and control of specific and incorrect rumours is a key part of stopping the wheels coming off for everyone.

Elsewhere lockdown does not prohibit going to the shops for food.  Being under quarantine does, and people stripping shelves bare does.  

The supermarkets are in a no-win situation here - if they cancel promotions such as BOGOFs they'll be seen and immediately vilified as trying to profiteer from the crisis. Their supply chain is knackered for a long time to come as people discover that their stockpile of toilet roll and pasta is enough to last them well into 2021 so aren't buying more this year. Yes, there will be an increase in usage as people stay at home, but how the retailers are going to plan for the best is anyone'e guess.

Yes - I'm going cold turkey (!) from my Boots meal-deal habit

I think there is going to be a heartbreaking amount of spoilage and wastage in the fresh food people have panic bought.  Maintaining a buffer supply of anything other than nonperishables needs an organised and planned system to avoid waste, and very few people have practice doing this or indeed I imagine have started doing this with their inappropriately stocked hordes.  

It has given us as a household a big kick to try and go zero waste with food – not so easy with a small person who will eat when they need to, and not when they don’t, and isn’t very good about communicating this in advance…

Fresh food, yes, I think you're right, there's not much point in holding more of that than you can use in the immediate future.

But I'm not sure how much people have been stocking up on the fresh, unfreezable stuff - the shelves are a bit depleted of fruit and veg, but it's still not hard to get hold of some as long as you aren't too picky about what type.

All going well, people not needing to use too much of it, there are going to be a lot of tins going out of date a year or two from now. If things have improved a lot by the end of the year, it'd be worth having a drive to get people to give stuff to food banks and others who can use what they won't.

yes....and not just individuals.

Our village butcher is selling more (some to people who he only sees when there is a supply chain issue), but worries that in a week or so, when everyone has a full fridge demand will collapse and he'll have a lot of 'stock'. No win really.

stockpiling should be encouraged

the economy and jobs are disappearing - the only one hiring at the moment is shops and manufacturers of daily goods

Make it mandatory to only allow large quantities to be purchased

keep buying stuff you don’t need to keep the economy going (and it will also help fund the nhs too)

Panic buyers will see their action backfire when the World has gone full-on Mad Max and their plump well fed arses will make the most sought prime targets for dinner in the upcoming cannibal holocaust

I'm not sure how much really ridiculous panic buying is going on. I'm sure a small minority of people are being unreasonable but I suspect a lot of the problems are just caused by people adjusting their shopping in really quite rational ways under the circumstances.

My shopping habits haven't really changed but that's only because I dislike shopping so I always buy a couple of weeks worth of stuff at a time anyway.

If people are generally in the habit of shopping every few days or less, with a lot of perishable items included, and now they're being told:

1. That they should try to go out less often where possible.
2. That if they or their family get any symptoms they should immediately isolate themselves completely for two weeks.

Maintaining their normal shopping habits would actually be ignoring the government advice. Supermarket supply chains are quite carefully balanced to match typical shopping patterns. Even thoroughly rational and restrained changes to everybody's shopping habits were bound to cause shortages in certain types of product and I think that's mostly what we're seeing. I've seen pictures on social media of ridiculously overloaded trolleys but when I went to the supermarket myself I didn't see anyone with unreasonable looking amounts of anything.

The supermarkets are working hard to adjust to the new patterns, with varied levels of success and an inevitable lag. I'm not sure we need to demonise many of the public to explain the current shortages.

I missed that good analogy before; I think it’s even worse than that as the media misrepresenting what has been explained as a perfectly valid response by several posts on this thread as “panic buying” combined with the ridiculous behaviour over toilet roll acts as positive feedback turning that ringing into thunderclaps.

Some opinion is that the virus will also go into oscillate three behaviour as we swing between relaxing and tightening lockdown to try and keep the economy going without overwhelming the hospitals. As there is a lag in between becoming infectious and becoming symptomatic this is likely to isolate like an underdamped controller

Will there be a beat frequency between the JIT oscillation and the pandemic oscillation?

My food shopping requirement has risen by more than 100%. If that's repeated elsewhere, that's a bit step response in demand.

The flip side is that the hospitality supply change has had a large, negative step change; an egg farm near me is appealing for people to buy their eggs, as their usual customers (restaurants, hotels, etc) aren't.

It will take time for these supply chains to adjust, and cross-feed.

Tins? They don't go out of date, certainly in any meaningful sense. That's surely why they're store cupboard staples no?

With 3 kids who almost all live exclusively on pasta I don’t need a keyboard warrior who is single and has lived off takeaway pizzas to tell me how much to put in my trolly, 

like many families I have over the last week made sure the cupboard is stocked and the freezer is full, we are also having to now feed three kids lunches. I am also trying to reduce trips to the shop, on Friday I did the whole weekend’s milk and bread shop so I don’t have to go back in over the weekend 

(also the manager was struggling with staffing as several staff members have to self isolate because of vulnerable relatives)

this social media hysteria over panic buying is just the other end of the pendulum and equally damaging. I’m sure there are shoppers with large families who are holding back on getting a sensible amount of food in to at least start self isolating because they fear being judged for filling two trolleys.

I also have some cash in an envelope in case we have to ask people to shop for us as it’s not fair to ask someone who may have just lost their job to front the cost of your household shopping.

The shopping and support is something discussed with neighbours and friends and it’s good to see people pulling together.

Every time someone posts a pic of empty shelves imploring people not to panic ...people panic a bit more. If anyone knows anyone in distribution can you suggest they post a pic of the warehouse with lots of food? Food isn't in short supply, supermarkets run off ‘just in time’ deliveries and it only takes a few % difference in behaviour for that to break. Hopefully we’ll find a new normal soon.

Exactly. This has been studied. The more you instruct people to not panic buy, the more you tell them that panic buy is happening,  the more they panic buy.

There is also a knock-on effect to smaller communities, particularly those in the country and "popular" areas. Seen a post from a friend in Snowdonia that says it is heaving up there with caravans, campervans, etc. Fine them going out on the hills etc. but they are also emptying the local shops.

Something I hadn't thought of is the influx of visitors, even in our local village if the caravan sites suddenly fill up for the weekends and descend on the solitary co-op to stock up and take stuff home it just puts more pressure on us - when they all go home.

Anyone finding this locally?

Partner is on the phone as I type to his mum who lives alone and was already housebound with chronic bronchitis. She is totally freaked out that she has nothing to eat for her or the cats and can't get her regular supermarket delivery slot. 

Looks like our planned weekend of social distancing will now be taken up swapping germs with the panic buyers, then heading up the motorway to hand over our bounty

Just look what they've done

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-tyne-51980820

Most of the shops near me are fine. If you go to thr slightly upmarket ones you'll even find toilet roll. Not many bare shelves at all, I've just been shopping as normal. 

The supermarkets need to be sensible though.

In Aldi just now - plenty of stock of most stuff and not abnormally busy either. I was told that I could only have 4 one-person yoghurt dessert pots instead of the seven I had in my trolly. It just happened that I was buying food for my dad to avoid him going out and the yoghurt pots were one-a-day for a week - hardly panic buying and they had loads of them. I could have bought a six-pack of something similar, in fact, I could have bought four six-packs, but my dad happens to like these single-pot versions. I only found out at the checkout and couldn't be bothered to go back and re-queue. 

Obviously this is a minor problem, but a bit of common sense helps. Whilst over-stocking is a problem, getting enough to last a week to reduce the number of supermarket visits per person shouldn't be.

Alan

I know some folk in the Yorkshire dales aren't happy with lots of 'southerners' turning up to their 2nd homes, apart from the shops(where they want to stock up a previously very sparse larder), they worry they've brought the virus out of London north, where there are currently fewer cases and it's been fairly easy to self isolate. 

Our village is the same, plenty of second homes and amazingly all full for the time of year. There is an underlying resentment towards some that contribute nothing to the community in the good times. Thankfully they will not be blocking the bar in the local pub and perhaps get bored and go home.

People don't really 'panic buy', they 'stock up' because others are panic buying.

NSF when eating lunch at the keyboard  

Neighbours can co operate and help families who are isolated.

We put a note through all the doors in our block of flats the other day giving our phone numbers and offering to run errands for those stuck inside. One of our neighbours then set up a WhatsApp group for the stairs. An unexpected benefit us that you get to know people you've lived next to for years but never talked to.

In Aldi, I fell into the trap of 'panic ' buying, I couldn't help myself! I saw the last four chain saws and piled them into the trolley along with two mig welders and the last twelve Queens greatest hits.

sorry! 

same here in France, with 'les Parigots' (parisians) being unpopular when they arrive at their 2nd homes - lots of stories in the French press

We’re in a small village in the Scottish Borders.

The local shop has more food than you can shake a stick at.

They are rationing certain items such as toilet paper and soap but these items are in stock.

The lady who runs the campsite in the village is distraught as most people are cancelling their bookings and she’s seeing her business going down the pan.

Same with our village shop, loads of pretty much everything, inc bog rolls.

Panic buying I am aware of....

Horse food (by my brother)

Dog food (us, one extra bag)

Potato waffles (son, long term addiction issue)

Gin (for getting round to laying down the sloe gin)

Apart from that all pretty sane here. Don't know if our local supermarket has been ransacked as I haven't been there!

Totally agree about being sensible. Asda have a 3 similar item limit, so I can buy 3 multipacks (say 12 item ), or just 3 singles... Maybe limiting multipacks buys to just one would be a good idea. 

Personally, as someone who mostly shops on foot I would say padlock trollies and make everyone who with just a handbasket - certainly helps to put you off bulk buying tins and limits impulse buys so you stock to what you actually need.

Unfortunatly with two sets of elderly parents we now appear to be catering for 3 households, so supermarkets may well become our second home. (good job we have very different diets, so minimal overlap between each shopping list) 

The basket thing is really not helpful to a mum of four 😕

Or the elderly who may use the trolly as a walking aid....

You'd think it was a spoof.
Human beings really are the scum of the Earth.
Yes, I know lots of people are doing good stuff, but generally, selfish f*ckwits.

The Cats will inherit the planet, a fabulous furry heaven

But how will they cope without the human staff? 

by training dogs?

Yup. There’s panic buying tourists here in Flintshire.

Went up to Moel Famau a couple of hours ago and there were streams of cars leaving and many still double parked on the lane. It was like when it snows on a weekend and people go to sledge.

Called in the Spar on the way back as I do nightly and it had been hammered by these tourists going home.

a big sign saying we have none of the usual big 4 panic buy items.

I assume that they’ve hammered the local supermarkets too.

What I want to see on Monday is no inter town, city travel, no use of caravan parks unless it’s your full time abode and the production of your council tax bill at tills.

It was like a plague of locusts had descended on the supermarkets this morning, almost nothing left but J cloths, Lego and Ferrero Rocher for some reason. In five hours I have managed to find enough for three or four days if I am careful. It would be feckin ironic if I collapsed at work due to hunger, I work in logistics including food and pharmaceuticals.

Give me enough Lego and id happily miss meals.... 

I'll admit I bought 7 bags of coffee rather than 5 from a local supplier...thought being that if they get ill for two weeks I might have to use instant.... Could be deadly

Shops in Barmouth being stripped bare by "locusts", down on the coast to self isolate. (Term used today by the locals for caravan and second home owners on the Meirionnydd coast.) Self isolate, my arse, hundreds of 'em!

Surely death is better than Barmouth? 

I have got to give you a like for that...  

Where's that delete button?

I hope not: I live on a boat which is constantly on the move. I don't have a council tax bill...

Thou shall have a fishy on a little dishy.....

Myfyr dropped himself in that one

I’m not sure I’ve much sympathy for those people who bought all the bread flour but left the yeast shelf untouched 😏

good luck with that.

PLEASE STOP PANIC BUYING! THERE'S PLENTY TO GO ROUND!
We are talking to the supermarkets and the situation is all in hand, they can do wonderful things these Ocado folks don't you know?
The supermarkets: Hey mate, you might have asked us about that before you said it as there's no way we can rapidly grow our delivery systems overnight to achieve what you think we can achieve.
PLEASE STOP PANIC BUYING! THERE'S PLENTY TO GO ROUND!
Righto chaps, everyone needs to work from home and if you are getting on a bit perhaps don't go out?   Don't worry you can always book a delivery!
Oh, and schools are closed and please can everyone just stay at home eating all their meals from their own supplies now.
PLEASE STOP PANIC BUYING! THERE'S PLENTY TO GO ROUND!
Well, ahh thing is now we need all the most vulnerable to stay at home full stop for three months, and you can't get a delivery that isn't half way through April, and there's been no bread on the shelves, no flour, no eggs, no tins of any sort, no paracetamol, no tissues, no soap, no loo roll for at least a week...but ah, don't worry sure everything will turn out peachy as long as you.
PLEASE STOP PANIC BUYING! THERE'S PLENTY TO GO ROUND!

Seriously if you are expecting a letter to tell you to stay home for the next three months and you have not already stocked up what the hell else are you going to do?

Quite.  It's naive in the extreme to expect no fallout from suddenly doubling (or more) the amount of cooking being done in every household in the nation, and to not expect changes as we're strongly encouraged to shop large and rarely.

But we're OK aren't we wintertree as we are both good little preppers : ) OK in the short term that is but I am seriously considering digging up half my lawn and planting a bunch of veg, if only someone could point me at a good guide for market-gardening in the UK...

the problem is that perhaps the second homes are very stocked up too.   Some here in the village with the lights on this weekend plus an unusual amount of unattended dog shit on pavements

If people are stocking up twice that could account for the spread of shortages as they can panic buy in 2 locations

Of course an easy way round any shop item limits be for members of a family to each buy  "quota" separately, and to repeat this in different supermarkets. Higher numbers of shoppers in more shops = more risk of infection. Rationing as in WW2 would be best option but unlikely and would need massive administration.

Whilst yes, technically people could exceed their quota by going to different supermarkets I suspect most would not bother. So stockpiling would be confined to an obsessive minority.

Indeed, in fact I'd go further and say that it's hardly down to panic buying at all. Supermarket supply chains are highly calibrated to meet demand. It doesn't take much of a change in that demand to clear the shelves - just a huge number of people to suddenly change their shopping habits all at exactly the same time.

Hope you're right. Still the likelihood of more than one member of household getting separate big loads in a single supermarket however.

Sadly. I have to agree. There will always be panic buyers, but the situation was exacerbated by the Government saying you will be locked down for 12 weeks. 

I fully understand why and we are trying to comply. But our fridge/freezer is average sized and online shopping swamped.  

Confirmed by the Indian Government giving 4 hours notice of a total lockdown.

This week's shopping madness.

Since buses are now a thing of the past I walked to the Tesco Local about four miles away. The police were not happy with me being out walking with a rucksack but they declined my request to pick up milk and canned food for me. When I got there the queue to get in was enormous and mainly made up of people past working age who should have been indoors. One old chap a few places ahead told his neighbour that he had all his groceries delivered but he was bored so he was going in for a newspaper and a chat. The woman behind me said she was in her eighties but she still had to go shopping twice a day because they only let you have three of anything at a time. Apparently she likes to have at least a dozen packets of biscuits in at all times. 

I say this most days but words f*cking fail me.

If we normally buy 60-70 % of our food from supermarkets and then go to 100% over a short period there are bound to be problems. We just need to make sure that those without the time/opportunity (essential workers esp. NHS) and those being sheltered must be able to get food without trouble. The psychology of loo roll purchasing is quite bizarre. The complete absence of some alcoholic drinks does not bode well for the nation’s health. 

I totally agree ALL essential workers should be able to get food etc without trouble. Watching the nurse on TV who had finished work looking after sick people, only to find the shelves empty was a terrible indictment of our selfish society. I was only pointing out the consequences of fanning the panic flames.  At 70+ I'm holed up at home as instructed and not making the queues longer or spreading the virus. 

the uberbuyers are making the rest of us spend more time driving in to town on more days to get the stuff they bought up.

Someone in my sister in law's family was told by a delivery driver how his last drop-off had opened up his garage and shown him what the idiot proudly(!!!) described as "2 years worth of food and supplies".

Shameful.   Area in question Stanley, Co Durham

Compare that to the maginificent airlift from Italy of desperately ill people in a hospital aircraft as the Germans have capacity available ...

1,440 potatoes, 25 gallons of chip fat and 14,600 cigarettes?  I took Jr for their 4 year assessment which was in Stanley.  “Have they ever been exposed to tobacco smoke?”  “Not until today...”

Canny banjo players in Stanley. It’s the extra finger on each hand you know. 

Also a bit like Consett it can snow in Stanley at any time of the year so they were maybe planning for that too. ( I just live down the hill with the civilised heathans 

I wasn't for a moment saying the hoarder was typical of Stanley, but of that type of mentality anywhere ...

I can remember what it was like to go over from Stanhope via Consett to Newcastle before the 1980s!  Sheer Mordor !

(Worked on the Waskerley way in 1981 - job creation money put to a good purpose)

The Moorcock closed a couple of years ago and is now a house.  Gutted.

Aw Shucks!