UKC

One for the mods:

When we uncover a sock puppet account, can we email you, and can you add "aka xxxxx, yyyyy + zzzzz" to each of their usernames? It would save a lot of time reading b.s. posts.

Ta.

They might have to significantly extend the field for username...

Or just ban the lot of them?  Sad c*nts...

They perform an interesting function, highlighting good arguments (those they argue against) and reinforcing for the vast majority of forum users that some total idiots exist.  Unfortunately, they might think their arguments have more support than they do due to the reduced ratio of likes:dislikes because many forum users stop engaging (even reading) the threads. They spoil it coz ‘their’ views need to be challenged and debates get digressed (one of their strategies).
Pity, coz we are into free speech and all that, and some of them make useful challenge some of the time and often in a polite way (another strategy), but all of them talk bollox some of the time, some of them talk bollox all of the time. 
So yes, I’m all up for mods finding a way. They are not as bold/brave/stupid as me, who keeps their old name in their user profile....

Nice to see ukc 'progressive liberals' wanting to place a badge on undesirables so they can be recognised and treated as such. To prove oneself worthy of an opinion maybe a some sort of digital identification paper could be introduced? 

товарищ

Have you posted any links not in accordance with Russian Covid disinformation?

If not, more of a useful idiot than free thinker.

As far as I know, there are currently two Users that are being accused of having somewhat notorious pasts:  Rawn1962 and BoomerDoomer. 
The former probably is who people think he is and the latter almost certainly isn't.
Instead of a witch hunt with naming and shaming, etc., how about reporting your suspicions to the moderators and let them investigate and act accordingly?

Just so I've got my facts right, are you in support of sock puppet accounts, or not?

😂 Russian covid disinformation.... what on earth is that? I’ll admit whoever has done the hatchet job on my reality over the past 30 years has more in common with Timothy Leary than the 50 cent army. Saying that Leary was an agent of change guided by the invisible hand of the CIA a la Jackson Pollock.

I’ve developed a 2020-21 version of Bullshit Bingo. These are some of my starting words and phrases

Unprecedented, shill, mis and disinformation, anti vax / mask, conspiracy theorist, useful idiot, science, evidence, denier....

I’m not sure on the exact definition. In relation to Rawn his pattern seems to be trying to get his voice heard in a way that resembles bashing ones head against a brick wall until it falls on top of him. Again and again. A masochist after my own heart ❤️ 

If you are not aware of what Russian Covid disinformation might be perhaps you should find out what it is and decide if you want to continue aligning with it.

How would you distinguish between a sock puppet and a pseudonym?

Sadly, I suspect that some accounts may be held by people who have so fallen for the lies cleverly fostered within their bubble that they are (understandably) keen to spread 'the truth' any way they can.

I don't doubt that if ever I were to find myself utterly convinced that I was right and that 95% or more of eminent scientists were colluding with politicians to spread damaging misinformation as part of a society-wide brainwashing exercise, I too would be tempted to use such underhand tactics to get 'the truth' across to as many folk as possible.

Maybe you could help me out with some examples? 

There are more walking amongst us.  

I subtly (well, for me) dropped my suspicions on Boomer Doomer in a rather childish way, but only after BD laid in to me in some detail on several different threads when I'd never said a word to them or otherwise interacted with them in their current incarnation.  I shouldn't let myself get dragged down in to their mud.  Edit: Sorry Boomer Doomer, you can call me boorish whenever you want, it’s not untrue!  

There've been a fair few new accounts swinging in to life recently with a clear "back story"; many I think are people who left for one reason or another rather than got deleted, and there's nothing wrong with that.  

But there are a lot more that are clear piss takes.  Sometimes the line between them is blurred, and IMO the tolerance of absolute piss takers is what leads to an environment where suspicion gets cast too wide at times.  If we have a situation where people attacking Covid control measures and evading bans for other reasons just come back under ever changing identities anyone with a new account that jumps in full-swing is going to stand out as a red flag.

Well, for a start a sock puppet account is an additional account, rather than a re-named one. And then the second (or third) account is used simultaneously with the first to agree support or spread confusion as required

https://www.google.com/search?q=russian+covid+disinformation 

Please let us know which of your links contradict Russian Covid disinformation so we can see clear blue water between you and useful idiots.

If there’s so much clarity about these people their motives then why worry? Trying to change someone’s mind about covid mandates is more painful than having ones head squashed in a vice. My concern isn’t covid but the potential for a fookin nightmare riding on the back of it. 

Science and evidence are bullshit? OK...

You seem to be a real person rather than a bot, but a lot of what you post just seems to be cut and paste from someone else's template. Just have a think who has the most to gain from destabilising 'the west' in general or the UK in particular by spreading disinformation about Covid. It certainly isn't the CIA, PHE, NICE or the NHS.

The third link down was to the WSJ

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.wsj.com/amp/articles/russian-disinformatio...

who recently published this

https://www.wsj.com/articles/fda-ivermectin-covid-19-coronavirus-masks-anti...
 

👀

Please let us know which of your links contradict Russian Covid disinformation so we can see clear blue water between you and useful idiots.

While it sounds like a good idea, how would it work? While it's obvious that some new posters have previously been on here under a different name, and I've seen activity that was blatant sock-puppetry, can anyone actually prove that they are running multiple accounts? I can't see how it could be possible to prove it. You could check IP addresses, but there might legitimately be multiple posters on the same IP and the sock puppeters would just use a VPN.

I’ve only shared a few links, the last one to Robert Malone. I’m not convinced he’s a Russian bad actor brainwashed to disrupt the west’s covid narrative. It seemed more appropriate to point out that the same respected publication warning about disinformation also appears to be providing Russian disinformation 

The NHS as presented via the government and controlled media is a euphemism for a particular brand of abusive politics, including the abuse of its own staff. 

Last one to change their username to sockpuppet stinks. 

Out of interest, what makes you so sure that GCHQ aren’t monitoring all Covid related internet activity, determining whether they share linguistic patterns similar to those used by known Russian disinformation factories and then passing them on the Mi5 to follow up?

Clearly they have the tools to do so…

I was going to comment earlier, but seeing how my account is “new” it seemed inappropriate to do so.

However I think ultimately a lot of what we’re discussing comes down to the fact there’s more plurality of thought on Covid than people realise (Ask 10 of your colleagues if they’re vaccinated and they’ll say yes, but the statistics say otherwise).

I’m 100% sure the Russians have no interest in UKC (Mumsnet might be different). Differing levels of ability to articulate thoughts on the internet, plus a variety of views on Covid might look like disinformation to some.

I'm sockpuppartacus

Yes I realised that it would probably be impossible to automatically identify sock puppets, but as a human you are able to discern the "voice" of other posters, what they tend to say, how they express themselves and idiosyncratic spellings etc, so it's not impossible to have well founded suspicions about multiple posters on the same topic who "sound" alike.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jul/21/russia-report-reveals-uk-gove...

1. There has been a documented instance of anti-vaccination propaganda being posted on here from Ukraine.  I happened to see that one, I doubt it's the only one.
2. Not everyone who is spreading misinformation on Covid is aware that they have been effectively radicalised through other channels.

What defines radicalisation here? If it’s disagreeing with the ukc consensus then we really have achieved something special there 

You’re failing to account for the fact the Anti-Vax hesitancy is costing the government billions of pounds a month. If we’re willing to nudge people with vaccine passports we’re probably willing to deploy other measures.

I remember the Ukrainian post and it wasn’t especially sophisticated. The Russians have either upped their game to target the minority hobby of rock climbing or most of what you’re seeing is just people just expressing their views. Misguided or not.

I'm trying to make sense of what you're saying in this paragraph but I've failed. Please explain it in more simple terms preferably with examples or possible scenarios that would illustrate whatever you're trying to get across.

Ta.

Oh yes, it's easy enough for regular forum users to spot some of the regular offenders under a new guise. But I think that the site mods would want a bit more proof than that before tagging people's profiles with an allegation. They can't just go flagging user accounts because another user alleges that they are someone else. That process would be ripe for abuse.

How much is Brexit costing them?

Thought that was before your time...

Having spotted an obvious stooge, that does not prove that there are other, more subtle ones as well.  If there is a spectrum of abilities in the people doing this out there, we're much less likely to spot the competent ones. Absence of evidence vs evidence of absence and all that.   Odd that you recall this post but previously said "I'm 100% sure Russians have no interest in UKC" - clearly they do, even if all that has been spotted and confirmed is really obvious.  But then, if it wasn't obvious, we wouldn't spot it...

Almost every web forum in isolation is a minority hobby.  I suspect the majority of reader hours spent on the web are distributed across forums like UKC - everyone has a hobby.  There's a few standout large forums but I doubt they account for much of the global readership.  It's a broad church.  

"Their views" - It's clear it's not views that originated with them in most cases; absolute similarity of language and turns of phrase to the point it looks like a copy and paste job, trending fashions in which particular gibberish pseudo-science references to fall back on, coordinated agenda of the month - there's an uncanny level of similarity behind much of it - not just online but in people I've discussed this with offline.  Not one of the posters has ever divulged the source(s) they get their information from when requested.

Well, I was thinking that the allegation would need to be backed up with some pointers to posting history, then the mods could look through all the posts by the master and the puppet(s) and come to a decision. 

I expect the mods have your IP address

And so is my wife

They also have my full name and email address and are free to contact me at any point and address any concerns they might have about anything I've said on here. I don't plan to troll or post anything I know to be misinformation or whatever you want to call it. I have expressed concerns about what's going on in the country which admittedly are far from well informed on all accounts. I like offwidths replies he has a kindness and honesty which I respect, I even enjoy Wintertree's posts, he's kind of like a grumpy old man. Too much division is being sown in this country to attempt to add to it for no reason. 

They all seem to have the full pack of 'influencers' that they are familiar with. I recognise few of these names, but when they are looked up, it's obvious there is a consistent pattern to the things they spout. Mostly US based 'libertarians'.

There are measures the mods can use to identify 'familiar phrases' and IP addresses. But VPNs and Tor are being used to obscure the location and identity of accounts.

Division is certainly being sown, yes. You have to ask who would benefit from 'divide and conquer'. Brexit was a prime example of this division.

Plutocrats, technocrats and their ideologue masters plus anyone else on the payroll or under pressure / blackmail. As soon as the digital platform is made compulsory for basic living the world will change for better or worse who knows. 

Like your earlier post, you appear to be talking in riddles.

Are the tables turning on the item?

Does the swallow fly south in summer?

I find this sort of attitude hilarious (assuming I've correctly understood what you're on about). I had the same argument with my anti-vaxxer sister recently. You're all worried about digital ID and compulsory handing over data, but you've all got iPhones and give away all your data on Facebook anyway. The hidden powers aren't going to force you to hand over your rights, they are going to persuade you to hand them over willingly in exchange for trinkets.

While that could work, I really don't think the mods have the time to be doing all that investigation. 

Ah, bless!

Start banning "sad c*nts" from UKC?  Who'd be left?

What is your goal? 

Not so sure about that.  It's the sort of thing machine learning is particularly good at doing, often identifying patterns that humans can't.  Of course, to train a good model would require a substantial dataset - maybe a few thousand sock puppet accounts at least.  Still - the way some individuals are going shouldn't be too long ..

Fair point!

I wrote a long reply and deleted it. If people can’t see it by now then I can only assume they are happy with the process of a centralised government / financial system driven by medical tyranny. Enjoy a life time of boosters guys, I’m opting out. 

Using a second (or third, or fourth..) username is against the forum rules, especially (fairly obviously) as a means to pop back up again after being banned for some other reason and just carry on as before.  If the mods are sure a sockpuppet is a sockpuppet they'll just ban them rather than messing about with a 'tag'.  In Rom's case they've banned him dozens of times already and no doubt will again in a ongoing game of gobshite sockpuppet whack-a-mole.

I don't think it's clear yet, but if it turns out that booster shots are what's required I will, ta.  Same as I 'enjoyed' my tetanus booster when I stepped on a rusty nail a few years back. 

Tetanus is very rare (because of the extremely successful vaccination programme) but ask anyone who has it and I think they'll tell you that not having tetanus is really nice and something we tend to take for granted.

E2A:
I am concerned about 'government tyranny' btw.  (We're well away from the top of a certain slippery slope on that score and gathering pace alarmingly.)  It's just that it has no connection to the one thing that's gone well in their response to the pandemic.

We're all getting immunity one way or the other, so yeah, bring on the boosting.

Not only are the swallows flying south in summer, but Jacques has a new hat.

But seriously, look at the thread on the changes to the Official Secrets act for real threats, rather than worrying about Bill Gates injecting nanobots that lower house prices.

Thanks for that

That's copy and paste conspiracy nonsense right there. You started out saying you were concerned and wanted a reasonable discussion.

I already have a flu jab every year, it's no big deal. 

Does Rom keep getting banned for being a sockpuppet? Or is it just because each new account breaks the rules almost immediately?

The point I'm making is that if someone creates a sockpuppet and does it reasonably subtly without breaking any other forum rules then there isn't really any way to prove it. If their sockpuppet acts like an arse then they get banned anyway, not for being a sockpuppet but just for being an arse.

"driven by medical tyranny"

Pmsl! I haven't used term that in ages but it's literally the only thing that sums up the above. Medical tyranny lol. 

If you mean by the last bit that you're opting out of UKC then that's great. Ttfn!

No idea, you'd have to ask the mods.  Bit of both maybe.

Yes, you're right about that I think.  Bans aren't usually permanent anyway, if a 'banned' user is willing to stay within the rules in future the mods will generally lift the ban.  There's no need for a new 'sockpuppet' id unless the intention is to continue being an arse.

It’s almost as if the sudden, correlated appearance of content stoking worries about covid eroding freedom is a conveniently timed distraction.  

Surely not!

You keep saying you’re not an anti vaccine, anti lockdown conspiracy theorist but over dozens of posts and multiple threads you’ve managed to hit every one of their buzz words, tropes and stock phrases, all badly concealed behind a “hey guys, I’m only saying…” vibe.

Over a long enough time frame, if you consistently walk like a duck and quack like a duck, you’re almost certainly a duck. 

This is something I find so weird! in many ways I share Traddads worries over the way government control over society is going, whether that be from the crime bill the official secrets act, the forcing of schools and museums to ensure they only convey government-approved views to access funding, control of the media, etc.. it's just got f*ck all to do with Covid! Although I'm not sure where I stand on things like vaccines passports and freely admit its a massive can of worms in terms of issues, I just can't get too worked up about temporary measures due to an urgent health crisis. 

Worry about the former - it's happening right now and is massively altering how government operates - everyone will have forgotten about the latter in a few years. Why the very vocal libertarian lot don't go absolutely mental over this like they have over the mere specter of vaccines passports I really don't know. 

Thats easy. Outside of a few traditional libertarians most are now of the US variant who approve of all those actions since its aimed at people they disapprove off. They only get upset once it interferes with their own lives.

Spot on. On hearing the sounds of galloping hoof beats heading towards him, Traddad is looking around for unicorns, whilst ignoring Priti Patel's mounted internal security police in hi-viz jackets bearing down on him.

I wish you'd opt out of this forum whilst you're at it.

Are you falling into the trap pf believing that both matters aren't part pf the same problem.

If enough people get revved up about an issue governments can use it as  a form of control.  

Yes, exactly. Those 'Libertarians' have a rather one-sided take on 'liberty'...

I didn't call you "boorish", I called you a bore. Being boorish would imply that there is something remotely interesting about you, when the only interesting thing about you is how overwhelmingly uninteresting you actually are! You are also lying when you state "I'd never said a word to them or otherwise interacted with them". Our last interaction was a result of you replying directly to a post that I made. Apart from that, we haven't interacted in at least 2 months, so I must have hit a sore point.

To everyone else:

This is not a "sock puppet" account, this is my only account, though I previously had an account, which is now deleted. I only rejoined to get access to the crag database, which is somewhat restricted to non-members. Climbing on UKC... who'd have thunk it? I only wish I could refrain from reacting on other areas of the site, which I have managed to do recently. It was just something someone said that really pissed me off and got me to react. However, whether I right or wrong, I think it necessary to get people to think differently and for themselves and not just spew the mainstream narrative delivered by our overlords through the cathode ray tube or tomorrow's fish & chips wrapper. And sometimes I just like to poke the angry dog with a stick.

This whole thread smacks of the current penchant for labelling/othering any dissident as not merely wrong, but dangerous and even evil. It's not just UKC either, it's everywhere... it like a new religion that has replaced the old, dead religion... complete with its saints and sinners... and its heretics for the social flames. It's like a cult, which is why I have used terms like "Branch Covidian" before, there's no debating with some of you people, nothing anyone could say will penetrate your belief system. It's not that I think COVID is a conspiracy theory or anything, it's the unquestioning acceptance of all the crap that has ruined our society, under the pretence of saving it, it has saved nothing and has merely allowed the rich and powerful to become... more rich and powerful. The same goes for the "wokeness" grift, it's all about power. It's not that I think it's all BS, I think parts of both are correct, but I've only come to these conclusions after much thought.

Still, why I'm bothering with this? It will have little effect. Don't worry, I suspect I'll be "cancelled" soon enough... especially with people like wintertree and Andy Hardy (amongst others) on my case.

Burn the heretic!

You're not one from having the echo interrupted then?

Just don't like him, or you.  

You seem to be quite keen to express your opinion on other people, yet seem to think it's not ok for me to express mine?  Odd.

Over 60s in Israel will soon be getting their 3rd Covid jab in 6 months

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-58021386

1. Lockdowns are temporary. (And count have been shorter of they'd started sooner)

2. They have saved a lot of lives how is that "nothing"?

A less selective quote was “but only after BD laid in to me in some detail on several different threads when I'd never said a word to them or otherwise interacted with them in their current incarnation”

This conveys the chronology - you’d had a clear overt dig or two at me after I replied to other posters but before I interacted with you.  They’re their in the archives.  That is not a lie - if you mis-present it as you have done it could be construed that way.  

> Still, why I'm bothering with this? It will have little effect. Don't worry, I suspect I'll be "cancelled" soon enough... especially with people like wintertree and Andy Hardy (amongst others) on my case.

I haven’t asked anyone to cancel you and don’t see any reason why I would.   If you’d not taken a couple of clear pot shots at me before we interacted your presence wouldn’t have been noticed by me and I’d not have taken a pot shot at which poster you previously were.  

Oh and humble apologies for conflating “being a bore” with “boorish”.  Splitting hairs over such minutes strikes me as, well, rather boring!   I’ll wanderer off now and do something else.

Express away... I'm just pointing out that it's you who wishes someone else to be silent.

I suspect it’s not so much your opinion that people don’t like, rather that you go out of your way to be unpleasant and rude whilst sharing said opinion. When your starting point is name calling and “poking the angry dog” it’s hardly surprising you get some sharp responses. 

By what means do you think wintertree and Andy are going to “cancel” you? 

Apart from their phonetic sound, bore and boorish could not be more different.

I guess I’m an ignorant bore then.  Just as well you’re here to  teach me language.  A valuable service, I salute you.

Edit: I guess you're going to gloss over the relevant chronology, 'cos, you know, details are boring.

How dare you etc 😂

Several days and about 70 posts ago a long-standing random from ukc PM’d me to say don’t waste your f*cking breath on this forum. As said before I quite like Offwidth and Wintertree’s posts and don’t disagree with a lot apart from the nastiness. The reaction of the forum is exactly reflective of why people including Dr’s and other health professionals everywhere are afraid to speak out about their experiences. It’s scary to do so. Good luck Boomer, I advise leaving the forum on that post while the going is good. 

You think they are... they haven't ended yet and could come back in full force at any time... and like will.

Have they really? I'd say the jury is very much out on that. Japan, Sweden, Taiwan, Florida, Texas... None of those places locked down like we did, none of those places were significantly worse in terms of death rates, some were significantly better. Have you ever wondered what the death toll will be because of lockdowns? I reckon the knock on effects could be worse in the longterm.

Still, this thread isn't about the coof... and it's stopped raining... so I'm off out on my gravel bike. Have a nice day.

I mean it's hardly a unique view mate, you and the other fella talk a whole heap of crap.  Dunno why  anyone want to listen to it?

"Oooooh you just want to silence dissenting voices who challenge the norms"

No, I just can't bear listening to idiots

What surprises me is just how well so many "libertarians" are able to band together and work to a common cause.  Shows they realised just how flawed their core ideology is in the modern world...

Pretty much like it's been done over millenia - false accusations, stirring the mob and putting pressure on the people in power. It's a disturbing process but very effective!

Say, you haven't told us which previous poster you are.  Straight in to Covid topics with more than a whiff of familiarity about your position.

My money is on the recent and banned poster "barmatt" whose final thread and insult throwing was so bad I think the whole thread got nuked from orbit. 

Thank you for perfectly illustrating my point!

Prove me wrong by telling me if you're a formerly banned poster or a returning poster who previously departed of their own free will.  Like I've said, I know which particular poster (or persona?) I think you align with.

We've had an endless succession of ill-faring "pop up" accounts and it is due to their actions there are questions over new users who jump right in with similar lines.

You have previously said:

"Much is yet unknown, but worringly - as you've pointed out - those voices which do not conform to the chosen dogma are often silenced."

The accounts I have seen silenced have not been discussing the unknowns  but putting across demonstrable un-truths or saying things like "I honestly hope that if any of you lot get cancer then your treatment is delayed, you know, 'because of Covid'"

There is no sinister conspiracy I am aware of to "silence" those who question the mainstream scientific consensus in the middle of a global health crisis.  There are lots of people who will question those who disagree whilst standing on apparently highly shaky ground, and they will bring a lot of evidenced arguments to that.  

Don't worry though, if you do happen to overstep the mark (again?) I dare so you will be back soon enough under another account.

We’re 18 months into this pandemic and still having the same debates - not sure I agree with you about the effectiveness of this “cancelling”

Run that by me again, please? Sorry, I missed it

He was all edgy and said that we don't know lockdowns work because blah blah Sweden nonsense blah blah.  Pretty sure we'd have over half a million dead in England by now without lockdowns, but despite the nonsense talk of cancelling those channeling the orthodoxy he's free to say what he wants, it seems.

What experiences are they scared to speak about and where is this information from? Not particularly clear what you mean but it’s very much at odds with my experience as a healthcare professional working across multiple hospital sites during the pandemic. Part of that has included working in a staff support service - lots of staff struggling with stuff like the death of colleagues, burn out due to services being stretched to breaking point, fear of them or their family members becoming ill. Fear of speaking out publicly about “experiences” is yet to feature. 

Yep, same here but what do we know? TradDad is obviously plugged into the secret Underground Railroad that smuggles out the "Real" opinions of clinicians rather than those of "Paid Shills"* like you and me.

*I have actually been labeled as such while simply and straightforwardly explaining my direct experience of covid to a covid denier.

This is a key part of the picture.

I've been shocked at some of the poster's who've admitted to having been banned; I've obviously missed some explosive incidents over the years, but it seems that when they did as requested and contact the site owners, an agreement is reached and the ban is lifted.  

For people that come back 2 or 3 or even 20 or 30 times under new identities, there is demonstrated bad faith from the moment of their first post, although it often takes a few posts to twig that's what's going on.  

I have absolutely nothing against a good debate about covid - god knows there are enough unknowns, grey areas and horrible complicated issues arising from the mismatch of all the various social, economic and scientific factors but spouting total bollox such as you have just done is not debate its disinformation, calling it out is not cancelling you.

Sweden does indeed have lower excess deaths in 2020 than England - but has a totally different population density and is very different culturally so to compare the two is very misleading - but hey even if you did it is still bullshit as Scotland has a lower excess death rate then Sweden who had an even stronger lockdown! and the USA (who outside NY didn't really have a lockdown apart from rather a weak stay at home order) have the highest excess death rate! the effect of lockdown on cases is incredibly clear from the data.  Cases are directly related to deaths, so unless you are claiming excess deaths are caused by non-coved factors, (which has been repeatedly shown to be rubbish - I think it was specifically on more or less at least twice). these facts are not an echo chamber or a cult, this is what the evidence actually shows, and unfortunately, the recorded data doesn't give a shit about what you reckon! 

https://www.bmj.com/content/373/bmj.n1137 

I was going to question why these people keep coming back again and again to a forum where they're clearly not wanted, to argue with people who have no interest in them but then I relaised I answered that in my fist post in this thread!

I guess that happens in all internet forums though?  I bet if I join any left/right leaning forum there will be banned users coming from the other side again and again just to pick a fight.  It's quite sad really.

Wonder if it happens in non political forums?  If I log on to a Ford owners forum is there some Nissan aficionado who keeps getting banned logging on with new accounts under a VPN to spread misinformation and rumour about Ford?

Cool story Bro, but bollocks in the UKC context.

You're not arguing solely with people informed by the telly box and the Daily Fail, you're arguing with folk possessed of hardcore scientific backgrounds and the ability and interest to read the studies and sort the wheat from the chaff. You're arguing with people who're experts in data analysis and have gone a country mile out of their way to provide regular, in depth, independent breakdowns of what that data is telling us. You're arguing with front line clinicians who've worked throughout the pandemic and have seen its impact on patients and services with their own eyes.

Sorry fella, you're just another random with an axe to grind and a penchant for swapping profiles.

Wow! get a froth on much? Don't think anyone has labelled you as evil or anything, it's more people getting a bit exasperated at this plain daft narrative you lot keep pushing. Has nobody passed on the news? Qanon disappeared up its own arsehole in an implosion of shattered promises and false predictions at around about the same time Trump was shuffled off without arresting all our lizard overlords.

No Idea? Your problem is you think you're battling the UKC consensus when you're not. You're actually battling the Global scientific and medical consensus, complete with data, experience, observable reality, and simple common sense.

Yeah, I wonder why.

If there is, I would piss the Nissan bod off by pointing out the stupidity of their power window lockout control every time they popped up.  I've had the exact same behaviour on different model cars 15 years apart in age.

1. Child in back lowers window]
2. I punch the "window lockout" button on the driver's door's controls.
3. I raise window with the driver's door mounted auxiliary control for their window - or I try to, but the lockout buttons locks out the driver's auxiliary window controls
4. I disengage the "window lockout button" and try to distract the child so they come off their "down" button, so my "up" button wins and closes their window
5. I re-engage the lockout and am then unable to lower the passenger window, e.g. for a better view at a junction when it's covered in rain.
6. I curse the sheer stupidity of the idiot who applied the driver's lockout to the driver's auxiliary controls, and every moron since whose contributed to shipping a car with this ongoing stupidity.

I should probably buy a Ford next time!

You were doing so well with that post. A clear lucid argument that laid out your case methodically and clearly.  Then you posted a link to the BMJ which is the very heart of the medical tyranny - the ground zero of silencing the "real opinions" of clinicians lol. 

You won't convince 'em no matter what you say. 

You’re getting paid for your shilling?! I feel such a fool. 

That's nice.

Hey you can receive a ban on Twitter of Fbook for posting a link to BMJ disinformation. 
 

It’s possible to experience the same event from different perspectives and only one perspective be generally acceptable. This is broadly the case with the last 12 months. 

Do you have any thoughts on the under-reporting on the deaths in India?

You can have a post redacted when that post is a screenshot of a letter sent to the BMJ (by a Welsh ex GP who's now a full time anti-vaxxer) but you've shorn it of context so the letter looks like a published BMJ sanctioned article....there's an awful lot of those sort of shenanigans going on. Mostly harmless but tends to confuse the daft and credulous.

Go on then from what perspective are you viewing covid? You're very sure that the Global scientific and medical consensus is wrong so I'm assuming you must be a Nobel prize winning, multi-disciplinary polymath and part time virology maven 

...or perhaps you just watch a lot of YouTube and think you've got a blackbelt in Google?

Lucky them. I'm up for another jab if it improves my chances against Covid.

I've been banned. I broke the rules and they banned me. I apologised and they let me post again. I think you have to do something pretty serious or persistently to get a permanent ban.

The way the BMJ visually formats and presents them similar to a paper, including a top-banner authorship and affiliation list, a DOI and a short BMJ URL goes a long way forwards making it easy for people to abuse their "letters" facility to mis-represent unverified content up to and including nonsense as formal, peer reviewed content. 

I've seen this facility abused far too often.  

That takes me back right to April 2020 and the first time I ran in to someone on UKC both apparently convinced this was all about to go away, and that they had the inside track on it etc.  This tied back to a guff letter in the BMJ and known plonkers like Kendrick, and the poster started making the now all to familiar protestations when confronted with things like facts, logic and evidence.   Something smelt off about the posting style and attempt to engineer earnest debate questioning clear facts by presenting them against unverified crap masquerading as science in the BMJ letters section, and looking back it set the pattern for the next 14 months.  Bit of a "zombie" account to the point I'm now wondering if it was compromised; there've been a couple of instances about 6-9 months ago since of zombie accounts suddenly springing for in an anti-lockdown capacity.  A lot of people have accounts that haven't posted on here for 5-10 years, and back then weaker and simpler passwords were much more common, before browsers started suggesting stronger ones....

Edit: Most of those early posts were lost to The Pub.

I've found a human pattern that's so far proving 100% reliable... 

Are they a new user?
    No: OKAY
    Yes: Did they go straight to posting on the "Politics" forum or a Covid topic?
        No: OKAY
        Yes: BAD FAITH POSTER

No, you're Brian. 

And so's your wife.

Over 60s in Israel will soon be getting their 3rd Covid jab in 6 months

Unfortunately it's not happening because the Israeli government is nice. It's happening because researchers are starting to realise that immunity conferred by the vaccine starts decreasing after a relatively short period of time. This is not because of vaccine-resistant variants and so fixable by tweaking the genetic code, it's a more fundamental problem.

And?

Was it one of the Roms...?

... that's disappointing :/

I've been on some forums where you have to post a number of times in the main forum before you're allowed into the politics / pub parts of the site.

That might slow down the new accounts a bit, although it appears that the worst offenders do actually climb so they'll get through that hurdle without too much trouble.

OK.... as a good example of a financial system linked to something that approached medical tyrrany such that your suspicions could be justified... what happened in the US with over-prescription of opioids was a major scandal with massive suffering and many deaths, where the medical establishment, big pharma and the government all shared culpability. That's a well investigated, evidenced and accepted position of a scientific establishment in a country failing the people. 

Robert Malone being worried about vaccine enhancement in a virus is a reasonable position to have but it needs the investigation and the evidence to back it up. He misused data to try and prove his reasonable suspicions. That's not OK.

The US leads the world in such medical scandals as its health system is such a mess thanks to lobbying and  mis-information on an industrial scale from the private health sector. In particular when talking about more equitable and way cheaper western health systems, often dismissed as socialist. That's where current UK trade ministers like Liz Truss would want to take the UK, given she's met with those very same lobby groups. There really are things out there to worry about. The 'pedestalled' NHS also has had its issues, with some high profile failed trusts, plenty of bullying, and appalling treatment of some whistle blowers. The problems arise as the system is underfunded for the performance the government expects and as pressure builds some senior managers take short-cuts. However, overall it delivers well for such a low per capita funding level and isn't anything like as blighted by private lobbying as the US.

To my understanding, your take is critically misinformed.

Let's deconstruct it point by point - my emphasis in bold.

Point 1:

This  appears to present the fading of immunity as being related to "the vaccine", where as to my understanding it's the intrinsic fade is more down to the nature of the immune system, particularly in the old and vulnerable.

Further, there is more than a bit of confusion out there between fade of antibodies and fade of immunity, which are not the same thing - at all.  I do not think the emerging scientific research supports your stance.

My understanding is that - for obvious reasons - widespread data on the fade of vaccine granted immunity beyond 6 months is not yet available, and so part of the planning for a booster is to pre-prepare for worst case findings there, with JCVI poised to revise guidance dependant on what the studies show.

Point 2:

If I drill a 1cm sized hole through the Hoover dam, the water level in Lake Mead "starts decreasing after a relatively short period of time." - does this matter in any measurable way?  No.  It's not the point in time from which immunity starts to decrease, but how quickly it does or does not decrease. 

Point 3:

Factually wrong.  A third dose ("booster") of the current vaccine targeted at pre-Kent variants is being considered for the most vulnerable specifically because it may provide extra protection against the new variants, and it's currently the best option we have.

One of the drivers to offer a booster to the oldest and most vulnerable is that two doses don't offer them as good protection as other people ,and it may be that a booster improves things for them.  Clinical trials on 3rd doses have been ongoing for some time and the results of those coming out will inform policy going forwards, not some crisis over vaccine granted immunity. 

You might read here for example:

https://www.bhf.org.uk/informationsupport/heart-matters-magazine/news/coron... 

Surprise, surprise that the new account with a clear but undisclosed history and likely past ban(s) is back banging the same old drum.

What sort of thing would you like me to post? I could share the testimonial of a vaccine injured 12 year old and her mum from the Pfizer trial? Or another trial injured lady that described herself as ‘ghosted’ by the vaccine company? Or the endless distress felt by GP’s and other health professionals about the impact of mandates. 
Or the story of a Canadian GP who’s concerns about the impact of vaccines on the native population he serves has led him into all sorts of trouble. The list is endless, but it all spins a negative light on the narrative so I’m here saying it’s not possible to link or share these things and I can’t even express anecdotal evidence without risking attack. It’s that bad. What I’d like is it to be ok to recognise all parts of the equation without fear of personal attack. 
 

An endless list of the unverified, the unsubstantiated and the anecdotal.

Called it right then didn’t I. You’re a Facebook and Google type of guy.

Heres a tip. Learn what the hierarchy of evidence means and then start with Google scholar and work forward from that.

It’s not so bad as to stop you sharing your opinion, but it is so bad that you feel unsafe to offer any evidence to support your opinion? Struggling to make sense of that. 

But not unexpected, and it can be mitigated against.

I could equally share the testimonials of the people who prayed and were cured of covid, or who gargled bleach and got better. ~The simple fact is that there will always be individual scenarios that buck the trend, but when you have proper large volume, statistically-sound clinical trials the evidence is overwhelming.

It's not "risking attack", and it's not "personal attack"

On the contrary

You've been outclassed

Just your standard antiwoke/antivax/etc. 'freedom of speech' schtick.

"I have the right to say what I want without being criticised for it."
Aka: "Boo hoo, you're infringing my freedom of speech by exercising your own."

And this so often heard from those who were regularly calling people they disagree with 'snowflakes' for years until it went out of fashion just recently.  It's pretty sad.

It is sad

I'm just a regular climber and regular bloke who reads UKC and finds it useful. To be honest I'm not that clever in some ways I'll admit. And in the last one year four months wintertree's postings have been very helpful, and continue to be helpful

Thanks for the tip, just to check are we saying qualitative research is verboten? And are we only allowed to post peer reviewed papers or are opinion pieces and speculations based on clinical experience ok. Does it have to be overwhelmingly in line with the global ‘consensus’ by approved scientist and in well regarded journals or are fringe views also welcome? I’d be interested to know how often the dynamics of change take place at the margins as opposed to with the consensus of ‘best evidence’. 

Nope, doesn’t have to be any of those things but “I know a bloke who knows a lass who had the Jab and two weeks later their leg fell off”, well, it just doesn’t cut it.

Please do I would very much like to see that. Lots of people believe in god(s) and the power of prayer. It seems to me that spirituality is an important factor in these times whatever it might mean to you. I believe 13,000 people opted into the MAID scheme to euthanise themselves in Canada last year (I’d need to check on this). I wonder what role spirituality played in how they managed with the covid mandates and their end of life experience. I know there is some division in the church about this too. 

Do you think that vaccines have saved any lives? If so what might be your estimate of lives saved?

The reason I ask, is that it appears that you think a relatively small number of anecdotes more than offsets whatever value the of vaccination is.

Yes I believe the vaccines have saved many lives and also destroyed some. What role they play in the long run is yet to be seen and the risk analysis debate on total vaccination for me is relatively black and white. Don’t vaccinate children and afford adults the choice, coercion via stick or carrot is a very bad idea and informed consent has been patchy at best. 

You didn't mention how many you thought might have been saved.

I can’t remember what the estimate was in the U.K.? It’s a great thing for those who want it. All my adult family have had it and I’m happy my mother and father have. 
 

Edit - 60’000 estimated in the U.K. 

So if you think 60000 deaths in the UK have been potentially avoided ( and goodness knows how many globally), and you know of some negative stories (likley several orders of magnitude less), why the big downer on the vaccines?

Edit, to hopefully make sense!

Good point. I don’t like being told what to do and threatened and insulted for non compliance. 

It doesn’t take much around here to get a down vote ffs 🤣

I think the best person to answer your questions is a poster called TradDad, who two days ago said this: "I'd require peer reviewed hard evidence in a respected scientific journal that what they have to say is completely false" and this: "I think it’s important that everyone is held to the same rigorous scientific gold standard of the peer reviewed meta analysed double blinded randomised control trials."

My sarcasm didn’t translate well in that post 🙄

There’s a lot of hair splitting and nit picking on this forum, it’s not much fun 

Sorry to hijack, but is anyone running a book on AddisonKorczynski yet? And if so, what odds?

Edit: just saw this:

Well, that fits a pattern.... And it's gone.

The four immediately before it look a bit suss to me too.

There's still one of the trio that signed up with Sainigh and Swerstene active as well.

Nop.  If there was a minimum recent quotient of posts on one of the more activity oriented forums, it might force me out more often - no bad thing; perhaps even beyond some of the local choss and over to the re-opened sports routes not so far away.  That might be a humbling experience...

I've simply brought to people's attention a BBC article on possible fading immunity as reported by Israeli researchers. This should be of interest to everyone concerned by the Covid pandemic. I don't have a personal 'take' on it as it's outside my field of expertise. I do have a personal 'take' on the mass vaccination strategy employed by many countries, but this has nothing to do with rapid immunity fade.

It's related to immunity acquired as a result of vaccination. There may be a similar sharp drop in antibodies with regards to naturally acquired immunity but I haven't seen any reports on this.

Israel has been giving a 3rd jab to people with weak immune systems for several weeks. The latest announcement was for everyone over 60.

The drop in antibodies is considerable. Antibodies are not the only immune defense but this drop is enough for researchers from several countries to be concerned. Israel is the first country to action it, probably because they had the earliest mass vaccination campaign.

This may be happening in parallel but it is unrelated to the reported decrease in antibodies. As an aside, I think your reponse here ("Factually wrong") is why some people accuse you of being dogmatic and inflexible. You haven't even tried to understand what the article is saying. Here's another one which goes into more detail:  https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jul/22/uk-scientists-back-covid-boos...

Perhaps it will be limited to older people, or it may be that everyone will experience a significant drop in antibodies. We don't know yet. 

Is that you, Rom?

The only people to accuse me of being dogmatic and inflexible are the deceptive and deceitful posters hiding behind an every changing array of "pop up" accounts, sometimes using more than one at the same time with different "personas" to try and lend some support to their OTT squawkings.

Still, throw some mud and it might stick, ey?

Quote from the article:

Falls in antibodies after vaccination are expected and do not necessarily mean people are more vulnerable to disease, but the researchers are concerned that if the declines persist the effectiveness of the vaccines may diminish.

You said "researchers are starting to realise that immunity conferred by the vaccine starts decreasing after a relatively short period of time"

Factually wrong - researchers are seeing a fall in antibodies and they are "concerned that if the declines persist the effectiveness of the vaccines may diminish."

You seem to have trouble reading that sentence I quoted twice.  The effectiveness of the vaccines may diminish.  That means so far, they haven't but it remains a possibility - we won't know until time passes and we get there.  You are presenting a case that the immunity decreases after a relatively short period of time, but that is not a correct interpretation of what is being written.  It is at my most charitable, a misrepresentation.

No, your own link has shown you to be misinterpreting what has been written.

You were also factually wrong that it's unrelated to new variants - increased protection against new variants is specifically one of the things a booster is being evaluated for, based on good reasons to think it will help.

There's a lot of uncertainty over almost all of this, but that's no reason to carefully and selectively mis-present things in a consistent way.

This is a fact

This is opinion.

This is conjecture, or at the very least an oversimplified misrepresentation

This is made up by you

Researchers discovered that levels of antibodies in vaccinated individuals fell considerably after a few months. This has nothing to do with genetic mutations of the virus. I'm not making this up. Perhaps you need a relevant scientific background to understand these are 2 different issues

'immunity decreasing' is not the same as antibodies decreasing. Perhaps you need a relevant scientific background to understand these are 2 different issues.

Data presented to Israel's vaccine advisory group suggests that the vaccine's effectiveness against severe disease in 60-year-old people has declined from 97% in January to 81%.

PM Bennet said: "Findings show that there is a decline in the body's immunity over time. The aim of the supplementary dose is to build it up again, and thus reduce the chances of infection and serious illness significantly."

Please try to keep up before labelling everything you don't want to hear "Factually wrong"!

From your post it wasn’t clear to me which of your claims you were linking to the variants; I made it clear the the boosters are absolutely being considered as a way of improving people’s chances against the newer variants, lest someone get the wrong impression from your post.

As has been explained to you several times, you *are* making up the claim that this translates to reduced immunity.  Your source rather contradicts you on this.  

Whose a grumpy grumpus this morning?  Well we don’t know because they’re hiding behind yet another pop up account.

Tell you what though, from many discussions on here, I think that LSRH has sufficient background to understand where you have conflated two different things, repeatedly.  I also am happy I can make that judgement call.  

If you read my posts again you'll see that I acknowledge the difference

Oh dear.  This is real world effectiveness and is absolutely conflated with the delta variant unlike your  post presenting the booster as being not about variants but only about immunity fade.

Or are you aware of studies infecting people with alpha now, the only way we could get that kind of data on time decline of vaccine efficacy in actual living people?  Because that ship has sailed.

Do you have a scientific source?  This is a gross over simplification and not what is coming out of the science, and the real world fade in immunity is absolutely related to the new variants.  The scientifically measured “innate” fade is in antibodies and is not yet shown to translate in to reduced immunity against the vaccine targeted variants; but new variants drive divergence.  The science is looking actively to understand if and when fading antibody levels translate in to fading immunity, and booster plans are being made pre emptily for various reasons including this possibility but you’re getting ahead of yourself.

For others, the full article they quote is here

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israel-offer-third-shot-pfizer-va...

More details including criticism of the Israeli study

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israel-weighing-covid-booster-sho...

My understanding is that we expect immunity to start fading eventually regardless of its source, and that this is not a simple fade, rather immunity against infection will drop faster than immunity against severe disease.  

There’s something very Rom-like about the way you start with an over simplified to the point of misrepresentation view, and there’s a drawn out process of getting to what’s really going on.

Nah, I’m done playing chess with pop up pidgins for the day.

It's quickly reverted to the house style again, hasn't it?

A booster shot of the same vaccine to mitigate against a drop in antibodies over time is a coherent and well-established strategy. A booster shot of the same vaccine to mitigate against new and more resistant variants is much less so. 

Rom, I’m not playing chess with pop up pidgins.  I’ve already addressed that point up thread.  

Yup.  If it is Rom, they’re going to get really pissy about my update tonight - one of the bullet points is called “fading immunity”; their latest things is to claim I’m copying my material from them.  Suffice to say the bullet point isn’t going to say what they’ve said, but I doubt they will stop them from having a grumble.

It’s up to a probable 261 characters now (that’s without spaces), and I expect there are at least 2x as many as I’ve spotted, perhaps up to 6x?

It’s an industrial scale of deception and one that betrays any pretence at harmless innocence IMO.

No they don't. You're implying one's colleagues are a representative cross section of society where in fact they're carefully hand picked. 

It'd seem surprising wouldn't it but to be surprised we need preconceptions about the percieved value of the work, the cost and the tools available. A mis-guess about any of those changes things and I'm not sure we have a great handle on any of them.

Jk

Yeah, I can confirm this. Some of it got thru the net.

One of our anti-spam systems has already blocked double the amount trash posts this year versus 2020.

Yeah, it would just be quicker / simpler to number them so all the same account (first drawer of socks) w⚓#1, second drawer w⚓#2 etc.

The thing is no one really knows what’s going to happen. This autumn / winter will help things become clearer. Do people on here have predictions for this winter? Another wave another lockdown? Or routine winter pressures and back to ‘normal’ or something in between. 

Expect the unexpected?  

I think the winter is full of unknowns over both Covid and Flu.

Fewer than 60000 people in England are going to have a severe adverse reaction to the vaccine. 

The NHS is currently experiencing service demand more in keeping with mid winter, hard to see things improving much as we trundle towards Autumn.

Also worth considering that nurses, doctors and ambulance crews are about to be balloted over industrial action following what's looking to be yet another sub inflationary pay offer. 

Let it go.... those that want it have had it. As far as I’m aware there it’s still a choice. 

Not pinging staff to isolate will make a big difference 

Hard to see how that'll impact the numbers of people walking into your local A&E.

I'm hoping there's going to be a lull in late August through to early October and a bit of respite, but if you asked me what's going to be happening next week  I'll venture as far as "Things.  things will be happening next week" and late August is a lot further off.

From what I read and the people I talk with, I don't see how staff can hold up against this indefinitely.

If more health professionals are able to work then the work load will be shared and pressure reduced. Unless I’m missing something? 

Large protests all across France today, running battles with police and the usual tear gas / water cannon action. Interestingly the firefighters were actually leading the protests in one place as they now have a Jab mandate unlike the gendarme / police...

https://mobile.twitter.com/BananaMediaQ/status/1421478977303158791

Last Friday's thread I noted that I'd seen a big up tick in Covid cases in my previous block of shifts, well this last block saw me attending no covid cases at all. Just goes to show the value of anecdotal evidence. However, A&Es have been rammed for a couple of weeks now and it seems to  be a national issue, not just local.

Not sure why this is; the mini heat wave, people letting their hair down as lockdown lifts, opportunistic infections resurfacing after being held in check by covid restrictions. Probably a bit of everything.

Yep, people are tired, morale is low and high service demand translates directly to increased pressure on staff.

Turn up to treat a sweet old lady who's been lying on her living room floor for 19 hours with a broken hip and a little piece of you dies inside. It's the other side of the coin to that warm feeling you get from helping people, the certain knowledge that even before we land on the job, we've already let them down.

Yeah, the whole bit where I said we're seeing a lot more patients than we'd expect at this time of the year.

There’s something really toxic to being in a position where you feel responsibility but are unable to meet it because of limits on your authority or means placed by people who don’t feel the same responsibility.  It took someone a lot smarter than me to figure out that is what was grinding me down in my last role; and it was a much softer responsibility than yours.  Many people can adapt to that better than I.

Things.  Things are happening.  I’m starting to think about consulting with sunspots as a way to explain it all.

Ah gotcha. Yes the increase in A&E number is a curious phenomenon. Hopefully with less staff off isolating will make a bit of difference. But then I don’t work as an ambulance driver or in A&E triage so I wouldn’t know. Sounds grim tho so take it steady. 

Ooof! Ambulance Driver. 

To drive a full fat ambulance you'll need to take a few lessons and then pass an exam to get your C1 license. To then drive under blue light conditions you'll need to do a month long driving course, pass a driving test (in my lots case, speeding through a city centre at rush hour) and a written exam where you'll need to prove you're word perfect in defining the 120 different road signs, plus all the legal exemptions you can claim while driving on blues. So that's the Ambulance Driver bit out of the way. If you actually want to treat a patient as a paramedic you'll currently need to complete a BSc in paramedicine. 

Cheers. It's not so bad really, couple more blocks and I'm due some leave

Ooof indeed...

I'm reminded of the time I managed to split my spleen in two, thereby losing most of my blood within the space of a few minutes. The police at the scene recorded the incident as a fatality, but somehow some "ambulance drivers" managed to keep me alive and get me to a hospital in a condition where I could still be resuscitated.

I have no memory of this and no idea who they were, but I reckon that's some pretty impressive "driving".

You haven't let them down.

Johnson et al have let them down.

You're doing your best, in spite of the f*ckwittery of those governing us.

FFS.

Is sensitivity running so high and people taking themselves so seriously that a person can’t say ‘ambulance driver’ or ‘A&E triage’ as examples of frontline health care without getting bashed for it. 

Sorry for treading on your metaphorical toes, how the f@ck do I know what you do or what you’ve done to get where you are or even what exactly you do. The post was an acknowledgment of ‘I don’t know what it’s like, it sounds tough atm’. If you and the rest of your mates on here are that ready to attack no wonder these threads read like a myopic circle jerk 

It's when people make naive arguments from a position of ignorance that they get bashed for it.

No, it's when their arguments don't match the established UKC dogma. However, the established dogma is slowly but surely disintegrating before our eyes. Relaxing restrictions is not leading to an explosion in cases and vaccines are proving not to be the miracle solution. UKC's Covid experts are starting to realise that their past certitudes were based on false assumptions and now admit they have no idea what is going on or what will happen in the future. It's been a long time coming...

That’s a pretty big leap from a paramedic saying ‘I’m not just a driver’! Although the standard of bashing has obviously dropped round here if we are getting this worked up over “ooof”

Absolute bullshit.

Vaccines are a *massive* part of why cases have been falling, with far more immunity out there due to vaccines not live infection.  

Cases are turning to rise following the drop of restrictions; slower than I thought but hey, that’s great.

I’ve never claimed certitude about the future.

My “past certitudes” have been confined to demolishing views so far beyond the scientific consensus they were laughably stupid, a bit like your view that vaccines have not been a “miracle solution.”  They crashed deaths from the winter wave down massively fast, and they’re a large part of why cases started falling before freedom day after the football ended.

Who knows, perhaps if the last 12% of adults without vaccination had spent less time listening to people with dogma not data at their backs (that’s you BTW), perhaps they’d have got vaccinated and we could have had cases falling now rising during the last month.  Well, actually, I’m reasonably sure that would have been the case.  Congratulations, you’re part of the problem.

It relates to previous exchanges with ropeholder, not the ambulance driver quip from Traddad (who was seemingly unaware that this is literally the best way to wind up a 21st century paramedic - he's even more of a Trad Dad than me!)

Let's look at some of my "certitudes" in the run up to Freedom Day with some comments added

• #32  - You can see in these the same trends as in the plots above - cases are rising fast and it won't be long before we perhaps exceed the peak rates of the last wave, but hospital admissions have stalled or perhaps even gone in to decay; it's a very stark effect.
  • So, even though cases are rising, it's not the same problem as previous waves, because hospital admissions aren't rising to match, because of .... vaccination
• #33 The big question:  How long can this sustained exponential growth in cases continue before rising immunity levels start to moderate it?  Perhaps the English demographic data shows hints that it's already running out of steam 
  • Looks like we might be reaching immunity thresholds?  Great.  Rather than certainty it's a question, with a "perhaps" answer
• #34 There’s lots of good reasons to want the remaining restrictions gone as soon as possible, and IMO dropping them progressively - some every week or two - gives us the best change of genuinely doing that irreversibly; as time goes on the data should become clearer, the conclusions more bounded, so I’ll be happy if we see the announcement on July 12th act cautiously but progressively to stack the cards in our favour. 
  • There's no certainty in the data.  I'm supporting restrictions going, not prophesying "an explosion in cases", but I'd rather we dropped the restrictions progressively as a rapid rise in cases felt possible, and being progressive gives us more chance of not locking in bad consequences.  "I'll be happy if" is hardly a forceful "We will be domed if we don't", so again doesn't feel much like certainties to me.
• # 35 looks like another glorious week ahead so hopefully that will moderate the impact of dropping many of the remaining restrictions in England in one go...  This makes me slightly less concerned than I otherwise would be.  I'd far rather have seen a progressive dropping of restrictions to give time for re-evaluation of the data over healthcare and outcomes rather than playing Russian roulette, again.  However, we are where we are.
  • Once again I am not predicting an "explosion of cases" but that I think it's a possibility and I'd rather we'd been more cautious in approaching that possibility.

So, not much in the way of absolute certainty, just a consistent wish that things were a bit more progressive and risk averse, but overall support for the current process.

Yesterday I took my son for his first jab 🤔

That's great.  

Mean time, you do seem to be trying to chip away at confidence in vaccines over various posts.  Perhaps I'm getting the wrong end of a stick...  In that case I doubt I'm the only one.  

Speaking as an official UKC establishment resident expert, am I wrong to assume that some diseases spread through water, food, air, contact, surfaces, bodily fluids, parasites, insects and animals?

That's about all you need to know to decide to drink clean water, socially distance, use soap, wear a condom or use an insect repellent depending on the disease.

It's really really really really basic stuff unless you deny the existence of bacteria, viruses, parasites and prions.

Although even the ancient Romans and Greeks had worked out the need to sometimes quarantine and self isolate to reduce the spread of disease without knowing about bacteria, viruses, parasites and prions.

I didn’t even know they were a paramedic, maybe they just like scraping spending Friday nights scraping grannies off the floor with fractured NOF’s 🤷🏻‍♂️
 

Joking aside, the ambulance driver post wasn’t even on my radar as a potential insult. 

Prions who said prions......

Where’s John Gummer when you need him? 

As personal protection against contracting a severe form of Covid, I think it's effective and safe. As a long-term solution for dealing with the disease on a societal level, I have grave doubts. 

Don’t forget the mind controlling nematodes…  Biology is awful:

youtube.com/watch?v=Go_LIz7kTok&

The exponential rate constant for cases is measurably going up after freedom day; that’s the certainty, not that it means cases will definitely rise.  It started at an exceptionally negative value likely because of the heatwave and the end of the football, looks to me like it’s going to go positive at least for a little while.

So, shock horror, reducing the number of restrictions on social contact during a pandemic caused by a disease spread by breathing at each other is causing more spread of the disease than would otherwise have happened.

It’s hardly the confidence shattering revelation that’s “been a long time coming”.    

IMO I think it’s worth going out of your way to avoid those doubts appearing to cast aspersions on the vaccine in the short term, because there’s a third take which is they’re the only way we’re getting out of our mess in to a state where we can start to work on a raft of different things to build a long term solution.

Mind you, vaccines have consistently shown themselves to be a key part of the long term solution to controlling other nasty diseases, I see no real reasons why that isn’t the case here.  They’re never “the” solution but they’re a powerful part of a broad and robust solution.