UKC

Well, looks like being a late one this evening; going by the following timetable:

14.30 BST: MPs return from their summer recess. New Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab will be the first cabinet minister of the term to face questions from MPs.

15.30: Boris Johnson is expected to make a statement about the recent G7 summit in Biarritz. This could last for two hours or so.

17.30: There could be another ministerial statement, potentially on reported delays to the opening of the HS2 rail line.

After 17.00: If there is no further statement, an MP is expected to make a three-minute application to the Speaker John Bercow for an emergency debate on Brexit.

MPs will then be asked for their consent. If some MPs shout "no", 40 MPs in favour of the debate will need to stand up to ensure the debate goes ahead.

18.00-21.00: If approved, the emergency debate can last up to three hours.

21.00-22.00: MPs will vote on whether to take control of Parliament on Tuesday to extend the Brexit deadline to, at least, the end of January 2020. The vote could be as late as 22.00 BST.

Come 10pm I could well be pickled as I will have been sitting on the sofa, watching this unfold, all the while washing it down with some wine - who needs cricket or football - this is real!

You will be on the sofa from 2.30pm drinking wine watching the parliament channel?

Are you single by any chance?

Damn, I switched it on too late to see Johnson's majority vanish before his eyes as Dr Phillip Lee crossed the floor to join the Lib Dems...

Its all very exciting - engrossing - and scary - all at the same time

(wine probably wont be opened until later)

Excellent!

I do hope he waved them goodbye with two fingers.

Sounds like the Charlatan in Chief is taking a hammering if the tweets reported here are anything to go by...

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2019/sep/03/commons-showdown-loom...

The Guardian account is sublime.

I am bathed in that warm and luxurious glow of schadenfreude.

It occurs to me that many of his fellow Tory MPs who hate his guts will see this as pay back time.

It’s obviously WAY more important - but much more entertaining than transfer deadline day 🤣

I'm prepared to sacrifice watching GBBO this evening in favour of BBC Parliament!

Turns out he's totally shit at PMQs; I thought he was meant to be superior to poor old May?

And he's going to have to sack Winston Churchill's Grandson for rebelling against him.  You couldn't make this stuff up.

Bloody remainers!

Always got to mention Churchill, haven’t you?  😀

On the contrary, I think Boris will see this as payback time. They are providing him with the very opportunity he needs to remove the whip from them, therby purging the party of hardcore remainers and his fiercest critics when they can't stand in the inevitable general election which he has been gaming for since the moment he became PM if not before.

Since May's deal finally died parliament has been in a state of paralysis which only a general election can resolve. Boris just needed the time to move his party into a position where they can win.

The last thing he needs is to win with a small majority only to be saddled with a party with 20 or so rebellious remainers continuing to block Brexit. Their presence in the party would make it much harder to win an election anyway, without them he can present the Conservatives as an unequivical leave party and as far as possible neutralise the threat from the Brexit party.

Nevermind all that, Iain Duncan Smith it picking his nose and eating it!

https://twitter.com/i/status/1168949304242921483

Very amusing

Well yes, perhaps.

Thing is some of them may well stand again and split the Tory vote. Further, not every Tory constituency voted Leave and if he throws a Remain MP out of a Remain seat then parachutes in his own choice, who's going to vote for them?

By the way, Labour won't vote for an election just now. They'll fight that battle on their own terms, not the tories'.

I see BJ putting it back to the people..

I see some logic in the argument that the PM showing resolution to walk without a deal makes getting a new deal more likely. However, several things mitigate against this:

1) The evidence suggests that he is not doing anything to seek a new deal. 

2) The EU is much stronger than the UK and knows that no deal would cause significantly more damage to the UK.

3) Many people (and that includes MPs) suspect no-deal is exactly what Johnson wants. His receiving donations from the likes of Odey reinforces this suspicion. 

4) The EU can see that’s what he’s doing and so it loses its negotiating power. 

5) I think this is the most important point. Johnson is a liar. If he’s giving assurances that he’s seeking a deal and wouldn’t really inflict the no-deal damage and chaos on the country, nobody would trust him. That’s the problem with having a PM with absolutely no integrity. 

He’s given MPs no choice but to act decisively against no-deal, and I think the prorogation and threats have intensified their resolve. 

It would be a more convincing argument if the PM was actually engaged in attempting to get a new deal. I can't believe that the MPs are debating on the basis that he is, when we know he isn't. Who actually believes that the EU are going to roll over because we threaten to shoot ourselves in the face? It's madness.

Even the term "hardcore Remainer" is so ridiculous!

'Boris Johnson loses key Brexit vote as MPs opposed to no deal take control of House of Commons business'

It's done. Let hope we start seeing constructive movement from the impasse of the last three years.

And yet nothing really changes.

No deal Brexit is still the default unless parliament passes legislation to the contrary.

Only the date has changed - possibly.

BBC Parliament must be rocking the TV ratings again tonight

It reminds me of the sheriff in Blazing Saddles holding the gun to his own head.  Unfortunately the EU isn't as dumb as the citizens of Rock Ridge.

Johnson has reacted petulantly by signalling that he’s tabling a motion for an early election (in these parts “it’s ma ball and I’m no playin”) but he’s not getting that, apparently, until the proscription of the no-deal brexit is made into law.

And is it not striking that the leader of the house is acknowledged as having made the Tory rebellion worse?

Outlandish days.

At least some of them will stand as independents and therefore water down any conservative vote for a replacement candidate

Not yet, not with this bill. But this isn't an extension under the pretence of "renegotiating" some more - it's to allow a GE, 2nd ref, whatever, which will change things.

Seems the most likely next phase will be more pointless bollocks though, if BJ calls for an election but doesn't get it, so that Labour can watch him looking like a tw*t for a few weeks while he hasn't got a majority. Hopefully that will completely destroy the electorate's ill-placed faith in him. I think that's the best path for the UK, ritual humiliation of BJ, then an election.

That is of course possible and it may cost them a few seats but the calculation must be that going to the polls divided and unable to be an unequivically leave party will cost them more seats. Furthermore it would be better (from Boris' point of view) to have a majority of say 10 where all your MPs are 'onside' than a majority of 20 where 20 or so will vote against you on the one critical issue that will cripple your party until it's resolved.

Clearly its a gamble which may or may not pay off but I'd be surprised if that's not the thinking behind this.

In a similar vein, Corbyn has had to adopt a policy of Brexit ambiguity which has clearly cost Labour support but the calculation here must be that they lose less support than if they came off the fence.

These are damage limitation exercises in unprecedented circumstances.

I don't know about this. Up in Cumbria for example, Rory Stewart will presumably stand against whatever Brexit arsehole is put forward, and will win as an independent (or Lib Dem?). Presumably the others are the same, so the Tories could lose those most of those 20 seats. The new Brexit-Tory party can't win a single remain seat...I just don't think it sounds like a viable strategy.

What happens if Johnson is forced to go to Brussels to ask for an extension and they say no.

Or they demand some ridiculous terms for granting said extension.

Or there’s no general election and once again parliament can’t agree on anything.

I can understand being pleased with Johnson’s humiliation but it does nothing to solve the Brexit stalemate.

If there’s no deal agreed then there will be a no deal Brexit.

Maybe it’s a cunning plan to hand Corbyn the leadership of the country and letting him try to sort it out.

I'm not entirely sure you've been paying attention to tonight's proceedings...

I have been following the days developments non stop, without a break since 10.30am.

One of the benefits of being retired.

You, obviously a master or Brexit affairs, will have noted that the UK cannot stop a no deal.

It can stop Johnson pursuing a no deal agenda but as I said before, If parliament doesn’t agree a deal or revokes Article 50, then at some point we will leave the eu with no deal.

We leave with no deal presumably.

Very unlikely. They will be as reasonable as they have been all along.

There will be one eventually, but, with no majority, it will not be on Johnson's terms.

Of course it does - it will lead to a general election and a new parliament which is almost certainly the only way the impasse will be broken.

Either that or remaining.

And there's your answer.

It can stop him. Deal or stay are the remaining options.

Or they can actually vote to leave with no deal but we both know that ain't going to happen...

Actually, they can. FPTP is a bitch. As things stand given the split of the remain vote between labour/lib dem, Tories can easily win a GE.

And that’s why this no-no deal bill will be completely useless in preventing no-deal if Labour agrees to a GE.

You shouldn’t ask any PM to go to Brussels and ask for an extension no matter what.

You can but you shouldn’t.

You can also thwart a general election but then you might just get a Conservative government for another few years.

And still parliament won’t be able to agree anything and for how long will the ever gracious EU keep granting us extensions?

As I said before, no deal is still the most likely outcome.

etc >

Its possible but unlikely. There's very little precedent for independants winning anywhere let alone retaining their seats and most won't stand anyway. They may split the vote a little, in a few cases letting in an opposition candidate, but as I said above, fighting the election as a divided party would probably cost them more seats and winning it with MPs who will defy the whip on the one issue you've just been elected to sort out isn't really winning at all, it will cost you more in the long run.

Its a gamble, who knows whether it will pay off?

But if parliament can’t agree to a deal or remain - and they haven’t been able to in three years - and are unlikely to do so in any three month extension then once again a no deal Brexit is the outcome.

It’s not a UK thing it’s an Article 50 thing.

Problem is a new government with a majority could simply repeal that, so that’s worthless.

The better strategy would be to block a GE. But I’m afraid labour is more interested in a GE than in stopping no deal.

When the alternative is no deal, no sane PM wouldn't.

That could also happen with an election. The opposition now have control over the timing of an election and they must use it wisely.

Even if it is, at least it's no longer a near certainty.

I suspect Johnson has been scheming to precipitate an election either before the no-deal deadline or soon enough after that the negative effects wouldn’t have got noticed yet. As the opposition is nearly as turbulent and confused as the party of government, I despair of how this might end well.

I should have made it clear that I’m not in favour of a no deal.

However, I do believe that you don’t take the no deal option off the table before the end of the negotiations.

Even if both sides know that it’s a bluff and especially with the EU’s record of last minute deals.

It’s all part of the game.

The concern is that having avoided a no deal and gained an extension, politicians will waste any extra time given them as they have done so far.

The idea that a no deal has been avoided is wrong, it’s just been postponed.

Early celebrations by any side in the debate will just harden the resolve of the other side.

If both sides know it's a bluff then its pointless. But I don't think it was a bluff anyway. I read somewhere that Johnson's strategy was like a game of chicken driving a Fiat Cinquecento without a steering wheel at a  big truck - utter madness.

Not if a GE produces a parliament with a majority for some course of action - nothing can really happen without this.

That implies it's going to happen anyway, which is obviously not necessarily true, and obviously less likely than it was before this evening's vote.

Everything that you and I wish for is as far away tonight as it has always been.

We stagger from one deadline to another but are no nearer a resolution than we were years ago.

What’s the chance of a general election resulting in a decent majority especially as, unlike most issues, Brexit crosses political lines.

I think if Johnson's strategy is to go full Brexit Party, presumably with a pact with Farage, then opposition parties might respond in kind? Are people really so stupid that a remain constituency would elect a Brexit Party (that's what I'm calling Johnson's Party now the Tories have imploded) MP by mistake because they split themselves between Lib and Lab? 

Didn't look to me like Corbyn was in the mood for a GE. Boris needs thoroughly humiliating before that happens.

Do you think that by humiliating Johnson it might just strengthen the resolve of leavers to see Brexit done?

I couldn’t care less about Johnson himself, he’s a buffoon, but if the long term aim is to stop Brexit it might be better, on tonight’s performance, to let Cummings do it.

I don't think voters will see it that way in a GE. If Johnson can't stick to his word, he'll lose votes. Labour need to not support a GE so that Johnson remains in place long enough to lose all credibility. 

Not sure I get you? Labour's plan isn't to stop Brexit - it's to get into power and then work out what the hell they're going to do with the shit-tip the country and their party is in. I hope they'd do a soft Brexit to keep their leave voters with them and to avoid the backlash of no Brexit.

I meant that Cummings was supposed to be the mastermind behind the Leave campaign and was hired to ensure that Johnson succeeded in his mission.

Unless his plan is so cunning that no one has yet figured it out it would appear that Cummings is going to not only fail to deliver a victory for Johnson but will leave him in an untenable position.

The danger is that leavers might see any attack on or humiliation of Johnson as an attack on themselves and therefore become even more entrenched.

Labour needs to handle the election situation very carefully.

Having demanded an election for a long time it would be odd to then forsake the chance of having one.

It might be the only chance that they get for a long time.

It’s understandable that Labour wants to stop no deal first but is this all part of Cummings’ cunning plan?

Well yes.

No.  This fallacy that keeps being put forward is wearing thin.

The backstop is not something the EU are free to negotiate on in the same way as a reduction in the divorce bill may be.  The backstop is fundamental to the whole being of the EU and will not be removed whatever the costs to the EU may be.

Possibly not all that high, but we're going nowhere without an election, so it has to happen at sooner or later.

Nobody knows whether or not the EU would change the backstop at the last minute in order to prevent a no deal.

Many people believe that they wouldn’t because they’ve said that they wouldn’t and have shown no signs of weakening.

In fact they’ve ramped up their preparations for a no deal Brexit to show how far they are prepared to go.

The UK has not adopted the same position but has dithered and shown weakness.

Hence the EU never knowing exactly what we wanted.

The unfortunate thing is that by sticking to their guns (apologies for the military term) the EU might achieve in the short term what they sought, by use of the backstop, to avoid in the long term.

So who’s going to win this election?

The only certainty is that the SNP will do well. Probably.

The point is that the EU has principles whereas Boris's government has none, which is why the EU is never going to budge on the backstop.

I do

Impossible to say. Almost anything could happen. I think the timing is crucial and Johnson has lost control of that. The opposition have to play their cards very carefully. My instinct would be to refuse an election till after Oct 31st in order to humiliate Johnson - he would either have to ask the EU for an extension or resign - but the Farage party has to be taken into considetation.......

Almost certainly. I suspect the tories will beore or less wiped out I Scotland again.

Well you don’t actually know, do you?

Not unless you’re Angela Merkel in disguise.

I can see why Labour would wait until November for an election but in doing so they risk being seen as blocking not just a no deal Brexit but Brexit itself.

This could cost them votes.

It’s a minefield.

Well of course they are. Especially if the people in question are Corbyn and Swinson.

jcm

I'm sorry Baron but it is blatantly obvious to anyone with more than a passing interest in this.

1) The EU just isn't structured to make last minute changes of this nature. There's was barely enough time for our own parliament to get new deal through before the 31st Oct, and that was before proroguing parliament.

2) The EU are correct, it is a problem and so far the backstop is the only proposed solution. A separate customs area with an independent trade policy needs a policed bored. It's a requirement we would need to strike these trade deals Brexiteers are fantasising about.

3) They aren't going to shit on Ireland, an actual EU member state.

4) Letwin was bang on, Johnson's negotiating strategy amounts to standing at one side of a canyon, threatening to throw yourself off. No-deal will be much more damaging to the UK than EU, it's ridiculous to use it as a bargaining threat.

Johnson and Cummings never had any intention of negotiating a deal. If you want no deal fine, but if you think BJ is trying to get one you're kidding yourself. If that was the case Boris would have had a busy summer, as it is he's done f*ck all.

But for all that the UK is no closer to agreeing a withdrawal agreement.

Without which, at some point in the future, unless we get endless extensions, the UK will leave without a deal and Ireland will have a hard border.

Not necessarily, we are to have a general election. A different government will choose a different course. What we do know is a vote for the Tories is a vote for no deal, as you say.

The important thing to remember, is that for the EU there is little difference between a deal without the backstop and no deal, they are still left with the same problem. It will be very shit for us, lots of companies relocating to the continent and a souring of Anglo-Irish relations for decades.

I’m certainly not advocating a no deal Brexit.

It just seems a bit premature for some to be saying that a no deal Brexit is being prevented when it is merely being delayed.

Not leaving without a deal on 31st October is good but so much is still unknown.

Yup, it's all about the election. If BJ and Cummings con enough people, this country is in for an awful time.

But we have no idea when that election might be, or what may happen with regards to any party's position on Brexit in the meantime. Frankly, if it were me, I'd leave Johnson and his fellow idiots floundering for a good while longer. 

I think that between them Johnson and Cummings have made a real mess of the last few weeks.

The Conservatives will go into an election without the support of many people who would usually vote for them.

These people, like myself, won’t support Johnson because, amongst other things, he’s a buffoon and won’t support the Conservatives because of the mess that they’ve made out of Brexit.

This would normally pave the way for a Labour victory but who knows where they stand?

Would you vote for the Brexit party? Given your reasonable contributions here (under trying circumstances at times), and your opposition to a no-deal Brexit, I'd presume not, but I wouldn't want to make false presumptions. 

I'd bet the mortgage it's Nov/Dec. I like the idea of leaving them floundering but they can't leave it too long, they'll look weak.

Like many leavers I have a dilemma.

I am a conservative but have voted for Labour - for Blair when he looked like he might make a difference. I can’t say I’d vote Labour again because I have no idea what they want.

As I said I won’t vote Conservative.

I won’t vote Lib Dem as they want to remain.

The Brexit party is too extreme in that they want to leave no matter what.

I might vote for them if it hurts the Conservatives.

They, the Brexit party, won’t win the seat where I live so I wouldn’t have to worry about that.

In fact, given the state of most political parties and the safe seat I live in I might not cast a vote.

And I have a postal vote and live 50 yards from a polling station so it’s not laziness but more a weariness that will prevent me from voting.

Labour policy is a confirmatory referendum between stay, and a Brexit deal they will negotiate.

It's clear, but a don't blame you for not knowing it, shit modern slogan driven journalism.

Thank you. You do have a dilemma. I hope you manage to find a way through it that doesn't hurt too much. 

I’ve listened to Corbyn demanding a general election at every opportunity yet last night he demanded a referendum with no mention of an election.

He did so to avoid Johnson’s election trap.

How he’ll square his personal feelings about the EU while running a presumably remain election campaign remains to be seen. How will he deal with this contradiction when faced with the inevitable media scrutiny?

Labour should sweep into power but I wonder be putting any of my money on it.

Now that's not true....... “He wants to table a motion for a general election, fine. Get the bill through first in order to take no-deal off the table.”

That, and for Labour leavers, is the whole point of the policy above. An attempt to appeal to remainers and leavers. 

Are they? It now seems almost impossible for us to leave on 31st Oct anyway - we're not leaving without a deal and there seems almost no prospect of s deal getting through parliament.

Anyway, I suspect being seen to block brexit would be a vote winner for Labour.

I don't know what's going to happen, but all it would take for us to leave on 31st October is for the EU to say "sorry, we don't think you're any closer to resolving this, we're afraid we can't grant a further extension".

Then, unless the UK parliament was willing to repeal article 50, we'd be out - with May's deal if parliament decided to pass it in a hurry, and with no deal if they didn't.

They would stand a far better chance without Corbyn at the helm.

I am a conservative but if I was a socialist I would vote for Corbyn.

Otherwise you get Conservative lite like Tony Blair.

That’s one of the problems with today’s politics - there’s not enough extremists - if socialism can be called an extreme position.

By extreme I don’t mean the right wing racist or loony left type just not the slightly left or right politics that inspires almost nobody.

Oh, and proportional representation as well.

Therein lies the problem for labour. There are not enough of the more old school labour socialist types to get them elected. Corbyn has little appeal to the middle ground who they need to win an election. A point proven by their in ability to make any gains a Tory party who are also unpopular amongst many at the moment.

I have over the years voted Labour, Libdem and Conservative. I find  neither the Conservative or Labour vote palatable as it stands. 

I quite like some of the Lib Dem’s policies but find them insipid and uninspiring so wouldn’t vote for them.

Not logical I know but that’s people for you.