UKC

So then, what are the odds we will be given a load of waffle with no clear direction. Just a vague hope that what is being said will appeal to the electorate as much as possible.

Dont get me wrong I would love a clear concise plan based on scientific rationale. I just don’t think we will get one. 

Seems to me a load of speculation is leaked to the media, then amended based on the grumbling from the public. Either that or the natural easing of lockdown caused by the mixed messaging is exactly what they want and they get it without the responsibility of ordering it. 

That would seem to be a pretty fair assessment of the situation. 

Oh don't worry, the UK government has handled the Covid-19 situation absolutely brilliantly so far, and I'm sure they will unerringly carry us through this next phase ha-ha-ha-ha-HA-HA (desperate ironical despairing laughter). I'm packing my bags for Greenland right now, I'll be back in 2022

Stay alert and you'll find out we no longer need to protect the NHS.

My view is we need to start opening some businesses pronto, with measures to control transmission (masks on, one at a time, etc). 

We have a new slogan, what more do you people want! 

Expect more waffle and statements that can be interpreted in multiple ways.

I think we all yearn for certainty and clarity which may be impossible. Also, I suspect we are a difficult audience.....as Brits we don't like being bossed around and on the end of authoritarian rants but we don't have the collective maturity of the Swedes to use our common sense.

we don't have the collective maturity of the Swedes to use our common sense.

What are you basing that on?  As far as I have been able to tell the vast majority of the population have been obeying the lock down advice and the social distancing.

Al

I think the point is that when it was advisory as a nation we packed out the Pass, the beaches and the parks. Therefore lockdown had to be imposed more severely

Sweden never really got past the advisory stage, because a lot more people got on and followed the advice.

We have something very much in common with Sweden: the highest per capita continuing covid-19 death rate in the world.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EXooRxcWAAAXt01?format=jpg&name=900x900

I seems that relying on people's goodwill to do the right thing, while not being entirely convincing that strict isolation was really the thing people should be doing, has been spectacularly unsuccessful in quashing the virus spread quickly.

"Let's run some tits up the flagpole and see who gets wood"

M. Tucker

I expect the transmission in the Pass,, on the beaches, and in the parks was tiny compared to that on London Transport.

It’s based on seeing media coverage of 0.0000001% of the population doing congas and being vocally outraged by it, instead of opening one’s eyes and seeing the huge reduction is social interaction which has clearly been observed and has worked.   

That conga was   2 roads from me............

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/daily-covid-deaths-per-million-7-day-ave...

At least ours is coming down.

I am hoping, in the absence of any real evidence that this will be the case, that we will be permitted to expand our social interaction to slightly wider family.

I have been all but sealed in a house with a 3.5 year old and a 1 year old for 48 days now and I can say without much hyperbole that I am losing my f*cking mind.

I can live without nursery for a few more weeks, but I would kill to have the grandparents in the mix so that the wife and I aren’t just alternating childcare.

We have been adhering to the restrictions and nobody in the house has a job that has much of a risk of transmission, and the grandparents have all been complying with the rules so the risk of any transmission is essentially zero.

I'm getting increasingly irritated by the newly-discovered devotion to the NHS from this government.  What they really mean is 'protect us from the worst consequences of our having failed to properly resource and organise the NHS over the last 10 years'

 Whilst I completely understand the logic behind flattening the peak and alarm caused by what happened in Italy, there seems to me a real danger in fetishising the NHS.  Actually, the NHS is there to protect us, not the other way round, and at the moment a large number of people are sacrificing their own health out of an understandable, admirable, but largely misplaced sense of duty not to bother their GP or A&E with their non-COVID related health needs.  

And while I'm on my soapbox, I'm also thoroughly fed up of being told by the BBC and other media what the government (or the Queen, or anyone else for that matter) is going to announce (probably) before it happens.  Either just f*cking announce it or report it and explain it afterwards.  The constant tactical leaks and briefings, various junior ministers musing about different flavours of what might be said, is all blatant populist kite-flying.   

Unless you have figures for both the UK and Sweden I'm not sure how you can make that assertion.  Similarly have you had the same exposure to Swedish media as you have had to UK media to make even an anecdotal comparison?

Al

In principle I agree with you, but has it "worked"? I think you are wrong to use the past tense here, and that is the real danger - complacency. 

Be honest with yourself, the R number is still too high, which means that the risk of a second wave is very very real. The scientists are saying a more comfortable R number needs to be nearer 0.5. I think a more honest statement would be to say that it is "showing signs of working" That means we are not there yet, and any significant reduction in the rules now would be too soon.

I’m not really sure what it is you want me to argue against.

But for clarity, the fact that Sweden’s “lockdown” or lack thereof is very different to the approach taken elsewhere in Europe is a matter of clear and obvious public record should you wish to look for it.

The fact that despite its voluntary lockdown Sweden has seen drops in footfall, transactions or other related metrics not too different from elsewhere in Scandinavia where lockdowns are more strictly enforced is also a matter of record. I can quote you the economist quoting Copenhagen researchers if you like but again you just have to look for it.

So it’s indisputable that Sweden didn’t lock down as tightly as everyone else, and the stats indicate that they look reasonably similar to countries that did enforce a lockdown more rigorously, then from that I conclude that Swedish compliance with the voluntary advice has been high enough to replicate the effect of a lockdown without it ever needing to be legally enforced in the same way.

If you mean me, then my latest post may help clarify because I’m not sure from this response that you entirely got my initial point....

I agree in the first part - it hasn’t gone away, it’s suppressed. The R number is difficult. Where I live I guess the R number is very low. In London it’s much higher and in care homes much higher again. I think we need a much more intelligent and nuanced lockdown. We all have a different self-interest with this though which colours our thinking. 

I don't want you to argue against anything.  I merely wanted you to back up unsubstantiated claims.  You have gone some way towards doing that. Thank you.

Al

No I didn’t - I was replying to Al in a general sense. 

The Swedish tactic differs a little. Protecting the economy and the vulnerable are equally weighted. If a medical break through occurs then they'll likely shift back to a containment plan, instead of the current delay. 

Many follow the advice, many don't. There are also Dutch, German, Danish plated cars trundling around the country, despite nations claiming they are locked down tighter than sweden. 

Absolutely, vague and with a nice change of colour too. From "danger/warning" red to a nicer "safe" green. Already condemned by the Scottish and Welsh Govts. Genius.

"Some way" eh? That's very, well, begrudging of you.

The sad thing about Sweden is that the voluntary lockdown doesn't seem in the end to have worked as well as harsher lockdown (justification: higher deaths per capita than many neighbours - albeit not as bad as ours still I believe) at virus control, but that there are some predictions that the looser restrictions won't in the end net it a better rode economically either (justification: EC GDP predictions - if you Google "Sweden economy covid there's certainly an FT article from the last day or so putting this argument forwards). It seems like one of the economic worries now is about whether, when they're allowed back out or advised they can go out and do stuff, people will actually want to (not in the functional practical sense of leaving the house, but with the level of spending that was required to drive the pre-coronavirus economy)

What do you think would be better?  Perhaps you could suggest something. That would be constructive criticism and perhaps more useful?

Al

Sure thing!

STAY ALERT: because the stealthy virus only pounces when you're distracted.

and

CONTROL THE VIRUS: when someone coughs near you, use jedi like telekinesis to reprogram it's RNA 

Nothing vague about the advise, good to know we're all going to be OK

It wasn't meant to be.  Although you do seem to be acknowledging as much by providing further detail.  Than you, with no reservations

Al

Exactly what we already had Al. "Stay at Home". (right now, I don't see any need to confuse matters further with this new slogan). Thats apparently what the Scots and the Welsh are sticking with. 

Yes, things may get relaxed slightly and changed but not massively yet. 

The Swedish plan isn't about getting to zero. Just controlling transmission to a level hospitals can cope with. Neighbours will catch up over time. 

This is nonsense. For a start I don't think Boris is likely hear groovejunkies suggestion on UKC so it's hardly going to be useful. But it's mainly nonsense because having a better suggestion is not a precondition of being allowed to criticise the government.

But since you asked how about adapting an old favourite: Be aloof and alert.

Unless you know they are new arrivals why is that a problem ? I drove for over a year in France with a UK registered car when here as a postdoc, Spanish, German & Dutch colleagues here for short stays (6-18 months) also rarely bothered to re-register their cars.

I'm not standing up for the government, but it is easy to be cynical.

We also currently do not know what else the PM's message will put out. 

Admittedly, I wish that Keir Starmer was in charge, as he seems to have a more measured and sensible approach.

At least spell advice correctly.

I suppose I'm guilty of being a touch cynical - I'll await the message later.

Advise (the verb) doesn't highlight red, I was indeed trying to say 'advice'

Agreed. I sincerely hope the sage/cobra lot that he's with this afternoon can at least help him not spout out a repeat of all that vague miscommunication of two months ago......

Sounds like one long conga line.  Did you join in?

Sure, I understand that zero isn't the aim. But if you're aiming for the upper end of the acceptable range rather than the lower end then it's presumably because there's a perceived benefit to not stomping down on the virus as hard as you can - whilst it's possible it's just a pure civil liberty benefit I suspect there are many who would hope that it might result in less economic damage if you can keep more of the economy functional. 

To paraphrase, the argument was that Sweden might be able to keep the virus under control whilst not crashing their economy doing so. My point was merely that there are suggestions now that they may end up with just as much economic damage as the rest of Europe and higher deaths per capita than many as well. Too early to say who is right, of course, but it would be a shame if that were the case.

There's been lots of argument that it's a false choice and that the virus running wild would cause even worse economic damage, but that's not the scenario I'm thinking of: I'm thinking in the more limited case where the choice is between controlling it enough and stamping it down as hard as possible.

Be Pure!

Be Vigilant!

Behave!

But "Stay at Home" may no longer be logical if, as I suspect,  they are wanting some people to go back to work.

Al

Its not exactly a unknown tactic so shouldnt be ruled out. I think other equally likely possibility is a subset of the government or maybe just some influential types with friends in the media decided to use these "leaks" to put pressure on the government and force them in the direction they want.

Perhaps, but the message was "always stay at home" with the known exceptions (essential work, exercise, shopping) and I think should still remain as part of the basic premise (which is what Scotland and Wales seem to be opting for). I guess we'll see what gets said tonight (and find out how wrong I am) but so far I'm not convinced the numbers are low enough to be relaxing too much so time - if that is the case I don't see this new slogan helping.  

As Tweeted by BJ two components of the advice are “Stay at home as much as possible” and “Limit contact with other people”. Anyone any idea what, in practice, these actually mean? And are we continuing with Judge Plod’s roadside kangaroo court to decide?

I've given up listening a word that plonker says. He isn't a serious person. Does anyone think we're going to get some actual policy out of him this evening?

It's a (possibly deliberate) muddying of the waters, the colour scheme change from red to green and language used lets people interpret it as they like. The government are claiming it's basically the same message but then why change it to something vauge? Because it gives the opportunity to blame the public if there's a second peak.

So the government produce legislation that is, at best, open to interpretation, yet you blame the police for doing their best to interpret it. Nothing like shooting the messenger.

No, no NO! For the ninetydozentybillionth time there's no mention ANYWHERE in the regulations of "essential work"!

Only work that cannot be done from home.

Massive, massive difference!

Jon, I was a bit hopeful about the announcement until I read your post. But now I think that what you wrote is all too probable / correct. It's depressing but there we are 

Agreed, bad terminology on my part. I still stand by the premise though that the new slogan may well not help!

Maybe Dutch, German and Danish people live in Sweden too...

I think, in fairness, the legislation is, for the most part, pretty well defined.

What's cocked it right up is various government ministers giving different interpretations of what they want it to say rather than what it does...

Unlikely to have plated cars. Plus everyone knows which houses are holiday homes. 

Is Sweden's vehicle licencing very different to the UK, then? Plenty of foreign played cars in the UK, owned by people living in the UK.

It's not overly easy to insure and test foreign plated cars. More admin; as sweden is quite particular about mot type testing rules etc. 

If I see a Danish plated car, outside a 2nd home I know is owned by someone in Denmark, I'd make the wild assumption they travelled there from Denmark. The same can because for German etc... 

There is a house I travel past often that we bid on many years ago that was bought by a Dane. They've never stopped travelling back and forth in the last 3 months. 

The nearest house to us, around a mile away is a German second home. They've been there this year. Etc. Etc. I have a spare key to it just in case, so I know precisely their comings and goings  

So whilst if doesn't match the press, there is travel for tourism happening. 

Fingers crossed the big announcement is the full resignation of the Tory government when this settles down and awaiting a full independent public inquiry (but not chaired by someone that is part of the establishment clique)Into their horrific handling of this crisis that has killed 30,000 people on their watch by their policies or lack of.

Don't hold your breath.

Miss Sperm Gun, north of the border, has now commented that the government messages are too vague, alongside all the comments on this thread.

The women who specialises in adding in  may, probably, likely, will consider, possibly  etc to every speech so she's always got a back pedal clause. 

He may quote some Latin

Turns out some of it was recorded yesterday and the rest being recorded today (thats how I interpret the wording of the report). make of that what you will - I'd rather hoped it would be a live address based on the very latest info. 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-52601754

Im no fan of BJ but I wouldn't like to be the person having to manoeuvre their way out of this position . Whatever he does now will have massive implications for the future and the best he can hope for is that not too many more die and the economy isn't terminal. 

I'd hope it would be a set of measures based on an analysis of how the virus is continuing to be communicated, and means by which we can effectively reduce that spread, whilst safely reducing some of the lockdown measures.

I hope it is carefully scripted, and free from Johnson's usual brainless extemporising.

Deaths. It's more likely that as countries release lock downs to the same point sweden has been at for the last 2 to 3 months that deaths elsewhere will increase again. 

Economy. Yeah, it's no good sweden saving their economy if the rest of Europe goes down, sweden will too. The docks here are already full of goods for potential export that the world suddenly stopped buying. The only difference will be sweden would enter the global depression with less debt initially and thus have slightly more flexibility over the next decade. 

My situation and thoughts exactly, except my two kids are 2 years old and 5 weeks old. I'm beginning to crumble.....

True, at least if it isn't live there's a fighting chance that may actually happen....

It's worth remembering that anything Boris Johnson might or might not say on behalf of the Westminster government applies to England alone. The Scottish government will continue to  issue separate guidance and apply measures for Scotland and all those of us that live here. The same is true for Wales and Northern Ireland.

Stay in lockdown, lift lockdown? Let's have a referendum; last one went well!

I'd like to think this evening's statement from the PM will have more clarity than that of Robert Jenrick on Andrew Marr this morning, though that wouldn't be difficult.

Apart from changing the wording of corvid statement we have had for some weeks the message seems to be the same.

Robert Jenrick said, "Stay Alert will mean stay alert by staying home as much as possible but stay alert when you do go out by maintaining social distancing, washing your hands, respecting others in the workplace and the other setting that you go to."

Dave

I agree it's an appalling dilemma .

In simple humanitarian terms surely preserving life must take precedence over the economy?

When we talk about the collapse of the economy, we mean the economy as we now know it. But even now there are businesses which are flourishing. It may mean a downward adjustment and redistribution of wealth to ensure that no one starves, but the economy will recover, as it always has done in history, usually surprisingly quickly.

On the other hand, death is final. The dead will never recover.

I think that's an over simplification.  People will also die from the consequences of lock down, indeed I understand it's already happening, but I agree it's an appalling dilemma.

Al

In the short term keeping hospitals from being overwhelmed has to be key. Imagine the effect on lives and the economy if people don't behave (because of a very mixed message ) and in three weeks time the UK is showing news images in the NHS like those in Lombardy a month back.

It appears that Boris owns this advice today as the Mail are calling out that he bypassed the Cabinet.

https://mobile.twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1259416232987627521

I'm hoping he'll actually tell us the estimate of how many people have been infected to justify things. They must have a rough idea now as they've done nearly 40,000 antibody tests.

Maybe that’s Boris’ new slogan! 👍

It's also worth remembering that the Furlough scheme is being paid for by Central Government and that the UK as a whole can't afford to pay it indefinitely.
 

I was surprised to find out how cheap the scheme is, though. 

6.3 million people currently furloughed, which is estimated to be 1/4th of the entire workforce of the UK. 

The cost is estimated to be £13bn a month. 

So £156bn a year, to keep 1/4th of the country in a standard of living their used to. Definitely would have expected it to be more. 

Does make me question why my universal credit entitlement, if I am made unemployed at the end of furlough (looking likely) will be £410 per month. That seems remarkably low. From looking around it seems many countries operate an x% of previous wage for x months system of unemployment benefits. I think when the dust settles, we'll need to ask why we do not have a similar system. Especially as the government has now admitted that most people can't deal with an economic shock to their personal finances (like, say, abrupt unemployment due to a pandemic) using only the benefits the government currently provides. 

Hopefully there will be a LOT of people asking that question, and with some urgency in their voices I imagine. 

Everyone got their popcorn?

He sort of mentioned climbing!

Are we in Step One yet?

He said unlimited outdoor activities, and being able to travel to destinations to exercise. 

That's opened up climbing as far as I'm concerned. 

Good luck social-distancing on that belay ledge.

Yes - but that’s Step One and it wasn’t clear from the graph whether we are in Step One yet

Just don't go to popular crags. And if you see other people then social distancing obviously still applies.

News report directly after said from Wednesday. Seems they've been given a press release with a bit more detail. 

One Step looked dry and sunny today...

UKB is saying Step One is from Wednesday

See ya

This is the key part:

Yep. This will just make hot spots super busy, especially as we approach more decent weather and a bank holiday. I suspect we will get peaks and troughs. 

The Lakes/Snowdonia etc will be battered by a deluge of pent up desire and we will be back to square one....

A LOT of people have been asking this of the government since the introduction of the Universal Credit Scheme; they claim it is a massive success and has been instrumental in getting people off benefits and back to work.......others are slightly less effusive, pointing out its various failings....

Genuine question here, you say back to square one but where do you see the danger in lots of people getting some outdoor exercise in open spaces?

Sure that long focal length photo showing lots of people on a path gives the impression of the virus running rampart but even if popular outdoor areas are 'busy' they will have fewer people per square metre than your average supermarket on a Saturday, with fresh air and (hopefully) a bit of sunlight thrown in for good measure.

Social distancing does not mean outdoor spaces have to be empty.

This doesn't apply to Wales... 

Yep, the chance of catching this on a hillwalk seem so small as to be negligible.... 

Also of interest just announced there is to be no quarantine between us and France. Now just need to be able to travel within France...

Also only with members of your own household. Some people will be able to climb with their spouse but my experience is most don't share a house with their climbing partner. 

Or to Scotland. But if you live in England it appears you can climb in England with people in your own household or you can go bouldering, scrambling and hill walking on your own.

The detail is still be announced, hopefully there won't be limits on driving distances.

Can't see there being limits on distance, it would be almost unenforceable.... 

Enforcement will be by pitchfork mob in the communities you visit...

Hopefully they'll all be back at work

To be honest, I was referring to his mountaineering analogy, we are past the peak, but we are not safe until we have got back down to the bottom of the mountain, or some such. Personally, I'm unlikely to go climbing, but if I did it would definitely be somewhere quiet and local. I won't be driving to the Lakes or the Peak.