UKC

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/23/trump-vows-to-open-up-our-cou...

We always wondered what he would be like in a crisis. Now we know. I fear he is going to kill hundreds of thousands of Americans.

I imagine lots of states will do their own thing and ignore him. Locals with guns building roads blocks on highways that lead to more infected states etc. 

Maslow would suggest that in times of duress and danger, the Government's primary concerns should be ensuring that the basic needs of society are met: Access to food, medical help but above all, a feeling safety and security.

People in all countries are feeling scared and vunerable. If they then feel their health and even survival are being squandered in the name of profit or election success, then they will take matters into their own hand to guarantee their safety. In the US that unleashes unlimited guns, local militias, the preppers, sheriff's 'posses', etc.

Wondered this morning if those around him have considered in some unacknowledged part of their mind the idea of doing a von Stauffenberg?

Is President Pence better or worse?

https://mobile.twitter.com/NikkiMcR/status/1242231879488716800

Its truly incredible.

Indeed. Many states have already led the way, with their own shelter-in-place orders. Trump may find his powers to 'open the country' are limited if state governors decide otherwise.

It's quite possible Trump, Pence, Biden and Sanders are all dead by the time of the election.  Then what!?

It's not that obvious yet how it will be done. He says he'll protect the most vulnerable in society.

I was trying to figure out what this might look like. I assume if you keep all those vulnerable in self-isolatation then the majority of potential fatalities could be avoided.

That leaves the less vulnerable. From stats I've seen the safest group is under 14s and from above that to 30 the death rate is only 1 in 500. Above that the rate climbs steadily. However even 0.2% of what might be 50% of the population comes out to around 300,000 people. Acceptable losses? He is balancing that against the economic devastation and other factors like an increased suicide rate.

Since the UK is closely allied to the US I assume we could follow suit soon after.

Every cloud has a silver lining - at least if the overwhelming majority are MAGA & Republicans.

Bound to be - doesn't he claim to have regular chats with God.

If Trump and Pence die, then the rule is Nancy Pelosi takes over.

Right.  Always his first instinct, obviously.

Yes, this has been very governor ran, there’s been an absence of federal leadership. There’s no chance NY is opening any time soon.

New York, FIVE THOUSAND new cases a day. Those poor people.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

One thing the Americans are good at, is public data. At least we have a chance of more information, although at a terrible cost.

She's not exactly safe either.

This is looking like a Tom Clancy novel.

He does his own satire. So beautiful. The best. 

Jk

I have been impressed by Cuomo, the major of New York.

He's the governor of the State of New York, Bill De Blasio is the Mayor.

Maybe they'll have the sense not to pick an old white guy as president.

my post in the Bell-end celebrities thread:-

However, US President Donald Trump said he did not think shelter in place orders needed to be expanded nationally, noting that many states have far lower infection rates.

"They're watching it on television but they don't have the same problems," he said.

It would appear that he doesn't have a clue (or does, but doesn't care - which is probably more likely).  No doubt people in Italy watched it on television that are dead now.

  He's desperate to get the economy going because he's losing shedloads of money when it isn't - his hotel business must be bombing like everyone else's; and of course he relies on the rising stockmarket to prove how good he is. It's about time another madman has another go at assassinating him although it would be infinitely more preferable for him to get a bad dose of Coronavirus.

Everyone else is jealous of his satire.  

"It's about time another madman has another go at assassinating him."

Understand the sentiment, but do we really want him turned into a martyr?  He needs either to be 25th amendmented (possibly not a word, and not very likely) or voted out.  Not religious, but praying for the latter - the US presidency is no longer solely a matter for the American people.  The whole world (with the exception of Russia and North Korea) need him gone.

And yet... https://news.gallup.com/poll/298313/president-trump-job-approval-rating.asp...

I just don't get it.

My bad, as they say in America!

Never underestimate of the power of the USA to switch course of action and do the right thing very quickly.

The USA is not one person.

To be fair to him, he does have something of a point. America is <i>very</i> big, and it's quite conceivable that people living in, say, Kansas would easily feel that it's just a problem for the coastal metropolises. For the moment. 

As demonstrated by the crowds happily ignoring the 'stay at home' advice here last weekend, it's hard to convince people there's a real problem until it becomes more tangible. And there's the historical anti-government streak in American culture to overcome too, not in the revolutionary, conspiracy-theory sense, but just in the tradition of individualism

It’s stayed 43-49 ever since 2016. He’s a president in a crisis which always helps.

but his base will not leave him. 

Unless they are dead.

The virus is pro-Trump. In very general terms, densely populated urban areas tend to be Democrat and sparsely-populated states Republican so statistically it is likely to kill off more opponents rather supporters. You don't suppose.....?Nah, forget it. He's not that bright

The thing is, it will be a problem before they know it. A quick look on worldometer shows there's at least 40 cases in each mainland state. Those 40 cases will invariably have infected 80 people that haven't been diagnosed yet. That's the thing, no government is paying attention to the difficulty of dealing with this - it grows faster than you can test for it, and thus a low level of imported cases can runaway into community infection before you know it and implement controls.  The lack of sick pay and free healthcare in the States results in much more pressure to not self-isolate than in Europe.  The only countries dealing with it well are the ones who've tested and contact traced like mad (South Korea) or locked down hard.  The USA's case rate is rocketing faster than any other nation has, they'll have more cases than Italy or China tomorrow. In a nutshell.....they are f**ked, and not only that, they're more f**ked than they think they are.

On BBC news this morning, cases in the US have rocketed by 10 000 in the last day, now behind only China and Italy. Meanwhile, Trump is yet again busy clashing with journalists, arguing "The media would like to see me do poorly in the election."

It's weird - deaths per case reported seems much lower than in Europe. Either I have messed up, or they're all still alive but the sh*t is about to hit the fan as you say, or there's some other numerical anomaly I haven't understood.

Agreed! 

Reminds me of this:  youtube.com/watch?v=OtP80Z08lfg& 

Excellent piece in the Atlantic

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/03/how-will-coronavirus-end...

Also initial jobless claims today jump to a record 3.28 million, 4 times the previous record high from 1982

Could be to do with there being 2 strains of the virus?

The deaths are still to happen so I think its too early to say definitively, we're 2-3 weeks behind Italy.

I think the country knows how bad it is, well the states do.

It's not - according to worldometer 68k cases 1k deaths in US, 40k cases 229 deaths in Germany. It's also a massive country, so it's going to take time for the virus to spread; and parts are behind Europe in timeline.  Their case increase rate is massive, more than Italy or China so they're either not controlling it or they're catching up on testing.  This fast increase in cases will be seen in deaths in a week or two.  Plenty of deaths in New York and Washington already.

NY state pop 19.54m cases 33k deaths 366. Deaths per case about 1%. Cases per million 1700.

UK pop 67.5m cases 9.5k deaths 463. Deaths per case about 5%. Cases per million 370.

Figures from yesterday - arcgis and worldometers.info.

It's weird - are they testing more than us - I don't think so.

That's my guess too. Still a bit weird though. Hopefully one of the experts will be along soon to put me right (not implying that you're not an expert - I just don't know

Edit: NY state is a hotspot and the whole of the UK isn't which may explain the cases per million.

If you Trump in a crisis you can indeed have a nasty experience.  

Rich,poor, young ,old it can happen to us all. 

It is weird but it's probably an artefact of different behaviour or different ways of gathering data. People may be dying at home without insurance, off the records.

Comparing NY city and London is probably fairer. Both look to have a real problem. The 5 fold difference in recorded mortality rate is dramatic but probably erroneous in some way.

jk