/ Trump in a crisis......

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Darron 24 Mar 2020

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/23/trump-vows-to-open-up-our-country-even-as-deaths-from-coronavirus-rise

We always wondered what he would be like in a crisis. Now we know. I fear he is going to kill hundreds of thousands of Americans.

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summo 24 Mar 2020
In reply to Darron:

I imagine lots of states will do their own thing and ignore him. Locals with guns building roads blocks on highways that lead to more infected states etc. 

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Jim Lancs 24 Mar 2020

Maslow would suggest that in times of duress and danger, the Government's primary concerns should be ensuring that the basic needs of society are met: Access to food, medical help but above all, a feeling safety and security.

People in all countries are feeling scared and vunerable. If they then feel their health and even survival are being squandered in the name of profit or election success, then they will take matters into their own hand to guarantee their safety. In the US that unleashes unlimited guns, local militias, the preppers, sheriff's 'posses', etc.

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Bobling 24 Mar 2020
In reply to Darron:

Wondered this morning if those around him have considered in some unacknowledged part of their mind the idea of doing a von Stauffenberg?

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The New NickB 24 Mar 2020
In reply to Bobling:

Is President Pence better or worse?

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wintertree 24 Mar 2020
Harry Jarvis 24 Mar 2020
In reply to summo:

> I imagine lots of states will do their own thing and ignore him. 

Indeed. Many states have already led the way, with their own shelter-in-place orders. Trump may find his powers to 'open the country' are limited if state governors decide otherwise.

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MG 24 Mar 2020
In reply to The New NickB:

It's quite possible Trump, Pence, Biden and Sanders are all dead by the time of the election.  Then what!?

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stp 24 Mar 2020
In reply to Darron:

It's not that obvious yet how it will be done. He says he'll protect the most vulnerable in society.

I was trying to figure out what this might look like. I assume if you keep all those vulnerable in self-isolatation then the majority of potential fatalities could be avoided.

That leaves the less vulnerable. From stats I've seen the safest group is under 14s and from above that to 30 the death rate is only 1 in 500. Above that the rate climbs steadily. However even 0.2% of what might be 50% of the population comes out to around 300,000 people. Acceptable losses? He is balancing that against the economic devastation and other factors like an increased suicide rate.

Since the UK is closely allied to the US I assume we could follow suit soon after.

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fred99 24 Mar 2020
In reply to Darron:

> We always wondered what he would be like in a crisis. Now we know. I fear he is going to kill hundreds of thousands of Americans.


Every cloud has a silver lining - at least if the overwhelming majority are MAGA & Republicans.

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fred99 24 Mar 2020
In reply to The New NickB:

> Is President Pence better or worse?


Bound to be - doesn't he claim to have regular chats with God.

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fred99 24 Mar 2020
In reply to MG:

> It's quite possible Trump, Pence, Biden and Sanders are all dead by the time of the election.  Then what!?


If Trump and Pence die, then the rule is Nancy Pelosi takes over.

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Dave Garnett 24 Mar 2020
In reply to stp:

> It's not that obvious yet how it will be done. He says he'll protect the most vulnerable in society.

Right.  Always his first instinct, obviously.

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Roadrunner6 24 Mar 2020
In reply to summo:

Yes, this has been very governor ran, there’s been an absence of federal leadership. There’s no chance NY is opening any time soon.

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climbercool 24 Mar 2020
In reply to Darron: a classic trump quote in there, “He doesn’t not agree.”

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freeflyer 24 Mar 2020
In reply to Darron:

New York, FIVE THOUSAND new cases a day. Those poor people.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

One thing the Americans are good at, is public data. At least we have a chance of more information, although at a terrible cost.

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tom_in_edinburgh 24 Mar 2020
In reply to fred99:

> If Trump and Pence die, then the rule is Nancy Pelosi takes over.

She's not exactly safe either.

This is looking like a Tom Clancy novel.

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jkarran 24 Mar 2020
In reply to wintertree:

> Its truly incredible.

He does his own satire. So beautiful. The best. 

Jk

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John Stainforth 25 Mar 2020
In reply to fred99:

I have been impressed by Cuomo, the major of New York.

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dsh 25 Mar 2020
In reply to John Stainforth:

> I have been impressed by Cuomo, the major of New York.

He's the governor of the State of New York, Bill De Blasio is the Mayor.

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Blanche DuBois 25 Mar 2020
In reply to MG:

> It's quite possible Trump, Pence, Biden and Sanders are all dead by the time of the election.  Then what!?

Maybe they'll have the sense not to pick an old white guy as president.

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Toerag 25 Mar 2020
In reply to Darron:

my post in the Bell-end celebrities thread:-

However, US President Donald Trump said he did not think shelter in place orders needed to be expanded nationally, noting that many states have far lower infection rates.

"They're watching it on television but they don't have the same problems," he said.

It would appear that he doesn't have a clue (or does, but doesn't care - which is probably more likely).  No doubt people in Italy watched it on television that are dead now.

  He's desperate to get the economy going because he's losing shedloads of money when it isn't - his hotel business must be bombing like everyone else's; and of course he relies on the rising stockmarket to prove how good he is. It's about time another madman has another go at assassinating him although it would be infinitely more preferable for him to get a bad dose of Coronavirus.

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wintertree 25 Mar 2020
In reply to jkarran:

> He does his own satire. So beautiful. The best. 

Everyone else is jealous of his satire.  

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Blanche DuBois 25 Mar 2020
In reply to Toerag:

"It's about time another madman has another go at assassinating him."

Understand the sentiment, but do we really want him turned into a martyr?  He needs either to be 25th amendmented (possibly not a word, and not very likely) or voted out.  Not religious, but praying for the latter - the US presidency is no longer solely a matter for the American people.  The whole world (with the exception of Russia and North Korea) need him gone.

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MeMeMe 25 Mar 2020
In reply to Darron:

And yet... https://news.gallup.com/poll/298313/president-trump-job-approval-rating.aspx

I just don't get it.

Post edited at 10:54
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John Stainforth 25 Mar 2020
In reply to dsh:

My bad, as they say in America!

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neilh 25 Mar 2020
In reply to freeflyer:

Never underestimate of the power of the USA to switch course of action and do the right thing very quickly.

The USA is not one person.

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nufkin 25 Mar 2020
In reply to Toerag:

>  "They're watching it on television but they don't have the same problems," he said.

To be fair to him, he does have something of a point. America is <i>very</i> big, and it's quite conceivable that people living in, say, Kansas would easily feel that it's just a problem for the coastal metropolises. For the moment. 

As demonstrated by the crowds happily ignoring the 'stay at home' advice here last weekend, it's hard to convince people there's a real problem until it becomes more tangible. And there's the historical anti-government streak in American culture to overcome too, not in the revolutionary, conspiracy-theory sense, but just in the tradition of individualism

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Roadrunner6 25 Mar 2020
In reply to MeMeMe:

It’s stayed 43-49 ever since 2016. He’s a president in a crisis which always helps.

but his base will not leave him. 

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Robert Durran 25 Mar 2020
In reply to Roadrunner6:

> but his base will not leave him. 

Unless they are dead.

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Wiley Coyote2 25 Mar 2020
In reply to Robert Durran:

The virus is pro-Trump. In very general terms, densely populated urban areas tend to be Democrat and sparsely-populated states Republican so statistically it is likely to kill off more opponents rather supporters. You don't suppose.....?Nah, forget it. He's not that bright

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Toerag 26 Mar 2020
In reply to nufkin:

> To be fair to him, he does have something of a point. America is very big, and it's quite conceivable that people living in, say, Kansas would easily feel that it's just a problem for the coastal metropolises. For the moment. 

The thing is, it will be a problem before they know it. A quick look on worldometer shows there's at least 40 cases in each mainland state. Those 40 cases will invariably have infected 80 people that haven't been diagnosed yet. That's the thing, no government is paying attention to the difficulty of dealing with this - it grows faster than you can test for it, and thus a low level of imported cases can runaway into community infection before you know it and implement controls.  The lack of sick pay and free healthcare in the States results in much more pressure to not self-isolate than in Europe.  The only countries dealing with it well are the ones who've tested and contact traced like mad (South Korea) or locked down hard.  The USA's case rate is rocketing faster than any other nation has, they'll have more cases than Italy or China tomorrow. In a nutshell.....they are f**ked, and not only that, they're more f**ked than they think they are.

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grumpyoldjanner 26 Mar 2020
In reply to Darron:

On BBC news this morning, cases in the US have rocketed by 10 000 in the last day, now behind only China and Italy. Meanwhile, Trump is yet again busy clashing with journalists, arguing "The media would like to see me do poorly in the election."

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freeflyer 26 Mar 2020
In reply to Toerag:

It's weird - deaths per case reported seems much lower than in Europe. Either I have messed up, or they're all still alive but the sh*t is about to hit the fan as you say, or there's some other numerical anomaly I haven't understood.

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Mark Bannan 26 Mar 2020
In reply to summo:

Agreed! 

Reminds me of this:  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OtP80Z08lfg 

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In reply to Darron:

Excellent piece in the Atlantic

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/03/how-will-coronavirus-end/608719/

Also initial jobless claims today jump to a record 3.28 million, 4 times the previous record high from 1982

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DaveHK 26 Mar 2020
In reply to freeflyer:

> It's weird - deaths per case reported seems much lower than in Europe. Either I have messed up, or they're all still alive but the sh*t is about to hit the fan as you say, or there's some other numerical anomaly I haven't understood.

Could be to do with there being 2 strains of the virus?

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Roadrunner6 26 Mar 2020
In reply to freeflyer:

The deaths are still to happen so I think its too early to say definitively, we're 2-3 weeks behind Italy.

I think the country knows how bad it is, well the states do.

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Toerag 26 Mar 2020
In reply to freeflyer:

> It's weird - deaths per case reported seems much lower than in Europe. Either I have messed up, or they're all still alive but the sh*t is about to hit the fan as you say, or there's some other numerical anomaly I haven't understood.

It's not - according to worldometer 68k cases 1k deaths in US, 40k cases 229 deaths in Germany. It's also a massive country, so it's going to take time for the virus to spread; and parts are behind Europe in timeline.  Their case increase rate is massive, more than Italy or China so they're either not controlling it or they're catching up on testing.  This fast increase in cases will be seen in deaths in a week or two.  Plenty of deaths in New York and Washington already.

Post edited at 14:49
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freeflyer 26 Mar 2020
In reply to Toerag:

NY state pop 19.54m cases 33k deaths 366. Deaths per case about 1%. Cases per million 1700.

UK pop 67.5m cases 9.5k deaths 463. Deaths per case about 5%. Cases per million 370.

Figures from yesterday - arcgis and worldometers.info.

It's weird - are they testing more than us - I don't think so.

> This fast increase in cases will be seen in deaths in a week or two

That's my guess too. Still a bit weird though. Hopefully one of the experts will be along soon to put me right (not implying that you're not an expert - I just don't know

Edit: NY state is a hotspot and the whole of the UK isn't which may explain the cases per million.

Post edited at 19:16
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The Wild Scallion 26 Mar 2020
In reply to Darron:

If you Trump in a crisis you can indeed have a nasty experience.  

Rich,poor, young ,old it can happen to us all. 

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jkarran 26 Mar 2020
In reply to freeflyer:

> UK pop 67.5m cases 9.5k deaths 463. Deaths per case about 5%. Cases per million 370.

> It's weird - are they testing more than us - I don't think so.

It is weird but it's probably an artefact of different behaviour or different ways of gathering data. People may be dying at home without insurance, off the records.

> Edit: NY state is a hotspot and the whole of the UK isn't which may explain the cases per million.

Comparing NY city and London is probably fairer. Both look to have a real problem. The 5 fold difference in recorded mortality rate is dramatic but probably erroneous in some way.

jk

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